Overview
As you are all aware, the 2019-20 TVB
season had to end a couple of weeks prematurely, due to the outbreak of
Coronavirus.
From a service perspective, it made little difference, as aside
from Aintree, the final few weeks of the season (post Cheltenham), tend to be
very quiet.
Over the course of the season (Nov 1st – Mar 17th) a total
of 109 tips were issued across 99 races, with 79pts staked.
If you had
managed to secure the advised price on all tips, then you would have
achieved a profit of 17.38pts (22% ROI).
However, if you had not
bothered taking a price and just backed the tips at BSP, you would have
secured a profit of *24.26pts (30.7% ROI).
Since the focus
switched to ‘big races’ 3 seasons ago, the service has been profitable at BSP,
every season.
In the 2017-18 season, the ROI at BSP was 41%; whilst last
season (2018-19) it was 20.1%.
However, this was the first season in
which the service has been more profitable to follow at BSP, than at advised
price…
I think the reason for that is quite simple:
By the time I tip,
all of the price ricks have been eliminated - and I only ever quote generally
available bookmaker prices, which have roughly a 20% margin, built in.
The
margin at BSP is virtually 0%, so with limited movement between the 2 sets of
prices (which tends to be the case, in the better quality races), it is not
really surprising that BSP produces the greater profit.
Ofcourse, that
doesn’t stop people jumping on the prices as soon as I issue (old habits die
hard !) - but suffice to say, showing patience would have resulted in a
significantly better return…
*BSP figures are before commission (which
can be set to 2%) - however the commission can be mitigated by betting into the
live market, shortly before the off (BSP tends to be approximately 10% lower
than the the back price just before the off, for TVB
tips)
Analysis of the Tips
Whilst the value
is questionable, I like to monitor how the tips perform in terms of finishing
positions, as it helps give me a feel for whether the tips were particularly
‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’.
During the season, the following placings were
achieved:
1st – 13
2nd – 16
3rd – 16
4th – 8
The fact
there were less winners than seconds and thirds, suggests the tips may have been
slightly unlucky - accepting it’s not a particularly accurate
measure.
Nearly 27% of the tips finished first or second, which is above
my target of 25%.
However, that is probably a reflection of the fact that I
tipped more horses than previously, close to the head of the market.
A
better measurement of ‘luck’, tends to be how many of the tips that traded at
2.1 or less, subsequently went on to win…
This season, there were 26
horses that traded at 2.1 or less.
13 of these won – which suggests that
there was ‘average’ luck, through the course of the season.
I feel that
probably was the case - though as the in-running markets get weaker (which they
are doing), that metric becomes a less accurate predictor (if a horse hits 2.1
in running, it is now more likely that it will win).
The most interesting
aspect of the low trades, was their spread across the season…
During the
first third (1/11-13/12), 11 horses traded at 2.1 or less - and 7 of those won
(lucky)
During the second third (14/12-9/2), 7 horses traded at 2.1 or less -
and 2 of those won (unlucky)
During the final third (10/2-17/3), 8 horses
traded at 2.1 or less - and 4 of those won (neither lucky not unlucky !)
This shows that luck should be judged over a full season - or even
longer !
The total number of tips issued this year, was significantly
down - both on last season - and on what I expected.
Part of the reason
for that, is obvious - the truncated season !
However, that would only have
accounted for a further dozen or so tips…
Another reason is that I was
deliberately light on tips at the Cheltenham festival.
Again though, this
probably only accounted for a reduction of around 10…
The 2 main reasons
for there being less tips than expected, were the weather - and weak/fragile
markets.
Obviously, running a service during the winter months means you
are particularly susceptible to the vagaries of the weather (which seems to get
more random every year).
However, this year was particularly
bad.
Almost every weekend, I felt like I had to guess the state of the
ground - usually because there had been (or was about to be !) significant rain:
or because there had been no rain, and previously heavy ground was drying
out.
As the ground is a key variable in assessing a race - if you can’t be
sure of how it will ride, it’s very difficult to tip with confidence…
The
weak/fragile markets were the other big issue.
As I’m sure you will all
recall, frustration with these nearly tipped me over the edge at the start of
February !
By the time I come to tip, the bookmakers have taken a defensive
position on all of the attractive horses - but that still doesn’t stop prices
crashing !
The minimal margin in the prices - and the likely issues with
getting on - certainly stopped me from issuing a number of tips (which I chose
to make 'Mentions' instead).
Obviously, there is no way round the issues
with the weather: whilst the tight/fragile markets can only be overcome by
betting elsewhere, at a different time (the exchanges, close to the off)
In terms of the races that I tipped in: then 13 of the 109 tips were
in races run in Ireland - they yielded at small loss (1.5pts).
Of the
remaining 96 tips: 49 were in class 1 races (over half) – with 27 in class 2;
and 20 in class 3. There were none in class 4 races or below.
The tips in
class 1 & 2 races, yielded a profit of (27.13pts); however there was only 1
winning tip in a class 3 race, and as a result, class 3 races recorded a loss of
nearly 8.25pts…
The situation was very similar last season - and does make me
wonder whether I should raise the bar higher still, and focus even more, on
class 1 and 2 races…
As has been the case since I switched to ‘big
races’, very few tips, crashed in price.
In fact, almost half of the tips
had a better BSP than advised price (50 v 59).
Furthermore, across the entire
season, only 20 tips shortened in price by more than 40% (and remarkably, none
of them won !)
Both of the above are a direct result of tipping in better
class races - and only when the market has stabilised.
They back up the
P&L figure - suggesting that it should have made little difference whether
advised price or BSP was taken (which was indeed the
case).
Service ‘value adds’
Whilst TVB gets judged
primarily on the performance of the official tips - it’s always been a service
which offers much more…
For a start, there are the write-ups - which in
addition to explaining the rationale for tips, also highlight dangers - along
with Mentions, which can’t be official tips (for a variety of reasons), but
which are often worth considering as bets.
In terms of other possible
bets: then there is the ‘TVB pre-season’ (where Ballyoptic and The Conditional
were 2 good priced winners, this season); the ante-post bets (where Dame de
Compagnie was suggested - at 20/1 !) and the mid -week previews…
I moved
the mid-week previews into the forum this season - so that all of the TVB
offerings resided in the same place.
The issue with betting midweek, is that
there tends to be very limited opportunities (due to the quality of the racing -
along with the weather !) - and that was again the case this season.
I
covered midweek races in the conventional fashion for the first part of the
season - but at the end of January, switched to using the ‘matrix method’ and
the results were extremely promising.
So much so, I started using the
matrix method to tackle a big handicap each weekend, via the BFHPs.
Again,
the results were very good.
Buoyed by this, I used the matrix method to
tackle most of the handicaps at the Cheltenham festival - and yet again, there
were positive results.
I sent out an email, summarising the performance
of the matrix method, shortly after the season ended - so I won’t cover it again
here.
However, suffice to say, the results were so good - and also consistent
- that I believe the matrix method represents the way forward for the
service.
And whilst I know a lot of you profited from the bets it
suggested (in its 3 guises); along with the pre-season; the ante-post bets; the
write-up pointers - and the ‘live’ threads ! - profits from none of these areas,
are included in the official figures.
Obviously, that is because not
everyone can take advantage of them - whereas it should be possible for everyone
to follow the official tips (and achieve the stated prices - or even better
!).
However, as in invariably the case, anyone who did follow the
unofficial recommendations, is likely to have achieved much better profits than
those recorded for the official P&L.
Plans for next
season
This is where things get really interesting..!
I’m not
sure whether it was caused by the increase in the subscriber base - or by an
increased level of caution on behalf of the bookmakers (or a combination of both
!) - but whatever the reason, issuing tips this season, was particularly
difficult.
I focused on the biggest races - and issued at a reasonable
time - but the market movements were still almost instant and often
significant.
The crazy thing is - as the P&L demonstrates - I wasn’t
tipping over-priced horses.
Many of the tips subsequently drifted back out to
the advised price - and beyond.
The bookmakers should have been prepared to
take bets at the advised prices - but they weren’t…
My feeling is that
the early morning tipping model just doesn’t work any more (at least, not for a
reasonable size service).
Many people find it hard to get on: and in terms of
prices, then if I wait until the prices are stable (which I do), there is no
significant advantage to tipping at that time.
It would make more sense
to leave it until closer the off - when the bookmakers are slightly less
sensitive, betting shops are a more realistic option - and there is greater
liquidity on the exchanges.
Therefore, from next season onwards, I plan
to issue tips/bets much later (between 11:00 and 12:00)
Obviously,
issuing at that time, would mean that I wouldn’t be able to produce ‘write-ups’
(as they are used to justify tips - and suggest dangers along with possible bets
in other races).
Instead, I would look to produce ‘previews’, which I would
send out earlier (either on the race day - or the evening before).
More
than this - I would also intend to change how I tip !
The pilot of the
matrix method was such a success, it would seem silly not to start using it
‘officially’, to tackle big field handicaps.
For consistency, I would
also look to use a variation of the matrix method, to handle standard
tips.
The matrix method typically allocates 20 units per race.
This
equates to 2pts - so instead of tipping using pts, I would stake tips using
'units' (1pt would become 10 units).
This would mean that I could also have
official savers on dangers (1 or 2 unit bets).
Which in turn, would encourage
me to bet in more races (as I would be able to mitigate the chance of losing).
So all in all, I’m proposing some pretty significant changes !
-
Previews produced early (without bets/tips), in the form of ‘short-lists’ or
angles
- Tips/bets issued later (generally between 11:00 and 12:00)
-
Bets in more races - and often, multiple selections per race
- Staking in
‘Units’ rather than pts (where 10 units equals 1pt)
Individuals would be
given the option of subscribing to: the previews; the tips/bets: or
both.
Subscribing to the previews would mean that you would get early sight
of my thoughts (which would help, if you did want to bet early).
Subscribing
to the bets/tips would mean that you would get my view on the best bets
available in a mature market.
A limited ‘discussion’ on most of the above
took place in the forum, in response to me sending out the email on the matrix
method.
Generally, the proposals were well received - but I’m conscious
that’s only the opinion of a few !
I’ll be issuing a satisfaction survey
in the next few days, and I’ll add a few questions to that, which will hopefully
help me gauge whether the majority of you would be happy for the service to move
in the direction described (after all, you are my customers :) )
Anyway,
I think that covers just about everything - apart from a few words of
thanks…
The guys who have always supported the service, thankfully
continue to do so.
They are ofcourse, led by Chris - whose contribution
(particularly behind the scenes) grows on an annual basis.
Thanks also
this season, should go to all of you.
When things became a particular
struggle at the end of January, I was heartened by how much support I
received.
I’ve always maintained that TVB is more like a community than a
service - and your responses during that period, confirmed
that…
Hopefully, the world can get on top of Coronavirus relatively
quickly - and there will still be a bit of the summer, left for us to
enjoy.
All being well, I certainly intend to be back in touch in the
autumn - and I reckon the 9th TVB season just might be, the best one yet
:)
Stay safe,
TVB.
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