Friday 17 April 2020

End of season report

Overview

As you are all aware, the 2019-20 TVB season had to end a couple of weeks prematurely, due to the outbreak of Coronavirus.
From a service perspective, it made little difference, as aside from Aintree, the final few weeks of the season (post Cheltenham), tend to be very quiet.

Over the course of the season (Nov 1st – Mar 17th) a total of 109 tips were issued across 99 races, with 79pts staked.

If you had managed to secure the advised price on all tips, then you would have achieved a profit of 17.38pts (22% ROI).

However, if you had not bothered taking a price and just backed the tips at BSP, you would have secured a profit of *24.26pts (30.7% ROI).

Since the focus switched to ‘big races’ 3 seasons ago, the service has been profitable at BSP, every season.
In the 2017-18 season, the ROI at BSP was 41%; whilst last season (2018-19) it was 20.1%.

However, this was the first season in which the service has been more profitable to follow at BSP, than at advised price…

I think the reason for that is quite simple:
By the time I tip, all of the price ricks have been eliminated - and I only ever quote generally available bookmaker prices, which have roughly a 20% margin, built in.
The margin at BSP is virtually 0%, so with limited movement between the 2 sets of prices (which tends to be the case, in the better quality races), it is not really surprising that BSP produces the greater profit.

Ofcourse, that doesn’t stop people jumping on the prices as soon as I issue (old habits die hard !) - but suffice to say, showing patience would have resulted in a significantly better return…

*BSP figures are before commission (which can be set to 2%) - however the commission can be mitigated by betting into the live market, shortly before the off (BSP tends to be approximately 10% lower than the the back price just before the off, for TVB tips)


Analysis of the Tips

Whilst the value is questionable, I like to monitor how the tips perform in terms of finishing positions, as it helps give me a feel for whether the tips were particularly ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’.
During the season, the following placings were achieved:

1st – 13
2nd – 16
3rd – 16
4th – 8

The fact there were less winners than seconds and thirds, suggests the tips may have been slightly unlucky - accepting it’s not a particularly accurate measure.

Nearly 27% of the tips finished first or second, which is above my target of 25%.
However, that is probably a reflection of the fact that I tipped more horses than previously, close to the head of the market.

A better measurement of ‘luck’, tends to be how many of the tips that traded at 2.1 or less, subsequently went on to win…

This season, there were 26 horses that traded at 2.1 or less.
13 of these won – which suggests that there was ‘average’ luck, through the course of the season.

I feel that probably was the case - though as the in-running markets get weaker (which they are doing), that metric becomes a less accurate predictor (if a horse hits 2.1 in running, it is now more likely that it will win).

The most interesting aspect of the low trades, was their spread across the season…

During the first third (1/11-13/12), 11 horses traded at 2.1 or less - and 7 of those won (lucky)
During the second third (14/12-9/2), 7 horses traded at 2.1 or less - and 2 of those won (unlucky)
During the final third (10/2-17/3), 8 horses traded at 2.1 or less - and 4 of those won (neither lucky not unlucky !) 

This shows that luck should be judged over a full season - or even longer !


The total number of tips issued this year, was significantly down - both on last season - and on what I expected.

Part of the reason for that, is obvious - the truncated season !
However, that would only have accounted for a further dozen or so tips…
Another reason is that I was deliberately light on tips at the Cheltenham festival.
Again though, this probably only accounted for a reduction of around 10…

The 2 main reasons for there being less tips than expected, were the weather - and weak/fragile markets.

Obviously, running a service during the winter months means you are particularly susceptible to the vagaries of the weather (which seems to get more random every year).
However, this year was particularly bad.

Almost every weekend, I felt like I had to guess the state of the ground - usually because there had been (or was about to be !) significant rain: or because there had been no rain, and previously heavy ground was drying out.
As the ground is a key variable in assessing a race - if you can’t be sure of how it will ride, it’s very difficult to tip with confidence…

The weak/fragile markets were the other big issue.
As I’m sure you will all recall, frustration with these nearly tipped me over the edge at the start of February !
By the time I come to tip, the bookmakers have taken a defensive position on all of the attractive horses - but that still doesn’t stop prices crashing !
The minimal margin in the prices - and the likely issues with getting on - certainly stopped me from issuing a number of tips (which I chose to make 'Mentions' instead).

Obviously, there is no way round the issues with the weather: whilst the tight/fragile markets can only be overcome by betting elsewhere, at a different time (the exchanges, close to the off) 


In terms of the races that I tipped in: then 13 of the 109 tips were in races run in Ireland - they yielded at small loss (1.5pts).

Of the remaining 96 tips: 49 were in class 1 races (over half) – with 27 in class 2; and 20 in class 3. There were none in class 4 races or below.

The tips in class 1 & 2 races, yielded a profit of (27.13pts); however there was only 1 winning tip in a class 3 race, and as a result, class 3 races recorded a loss of nearly 8.25pts…
The situation was very similar last season - and does make me wonder whether I should raise the bar higher still, and focus even more, on class 1 and 2 races…

As has been the case since I switched to ‘big races’, very few tips, crashed in price.

In fact, almost half of the tips had a better BSP than advised price (50 v 59).
Furthermore, across the entire season, only 20 tips shortened in price by more than 40% (and remarkably, none of them won !)

Both of the above are a direct result of tipping in better class races - and only when the market has stabilised.
They back up the P&L figure - suggesting that it should have made little difference whether advised price or BSP was taken (which was indeed the case).


Service ‘value adds’

Whilst TVB gets judged primarily on the performance of the official tips - it’s always been a service which offers much more…

For a start, there are the write-ups - which in addition to explaining the rationale for tips, also highlight dangers - along with Mentions, which can’t be official tips (for a variety of reasons), but which are often worth considering as bets.

In terms of other possible bets: then there is the ‘TVB pre-season’ (where Ballyoptic and The Conditional were 2 good priced winners, this season); the ante-post bets (where Dame de Compagnie was suggested - at 20/1 !) and the mid -week previews…

I moved the mid-week previews into the forum this season - so that all of the TVB offerings resided in the same place.
The issue with betting midweek, is that there tends to be very limited opportunities (due to the quality of the racing - along with the weather !) - and that was again the case this season.

I covered midweek races in the conventional fashion for the first part of the season - but at the end of January, switched to using the ‘matrix method’ and the results were extremely promising.

So much so, I started using the matrix method to tackle a big handicap each weekend, via the BFHPs.
Again, the results were very good.

Buoyed by this, I used the matrix method to tackle most of the handicaps at the Cheltenham festival - and yet again, there were positive results.

I sent out an email, summarising the performance of the matrix method, shortly after the season ended - so I won’t cover it again here.
However, suffice to say, the results were so good - and also consistent - that I believe the matrix method represents the way forward for the service.

And whilst I know a lot of you profited from the bets it suggested (in its 3 guises); along with the pre-season; the ante-post bets; the write-up pointers - and the ‘live’ threads ! - profits from none of these areas, are included in the official figures.

Obviously, that is because not everyone can take advantage of them - whereas it should be possible for everyone to follow the official tips (and achieve the stated prices - or even better !).

However, as in invariably the case, anyone who did follow the unofficial recommendations, is likely to have achieved much better profits than those recorded for the official P&L.


Plans for next season

This is where things get really interesting..!

I’m not sure whether it was caused by the increase in the subscriber base - or by an increased level of caution on behalf of the bookmakers (or a combination of both !) - but whatever the reason, issuing tips this season, was particularly difficult.

I focused on the biggest races - and issued at a reasonable time - but the market movements were still almost instant and often significant.
The crazy thing is - as the P&L demonstrates - I wasn’t tipping over-priced horses.
Many of the tips subsequently drifted back out to the advised price - and beyond.
The bookmakers should have been prepared to take bets at the advised prices - but they weren’t…

My feeling is that the early morning tipping model just doesn’t work any more (at least, not for a reasonable size service).
Many people find it hard to get on: and in terms of prices, then if I wait until the prices are stable (which I do), there is no significant advantage to tipping at that time.

It would make more sense to leave it until closer the off - when the bookmakers are slightly less sensitive, betting shops are a more realistic option - and there is greater liquidity on the exchanges.

Therefore, from next season onwards, I plan to issue tips/bets much later (between 11:00 and 12:00)

Obviously, issuing at that time, would mean that I wouldn’t be able to produce ‘write-ups’ (as they are used to justify tips - and suggest dangers along with possible bets in other races).
Instead, I would look to produce ‘previews’, which I would send out earlier (either on the race day - or the evening before).

More than this - I would also intend to change how I tip !

The pilot of the matrix method was such a success, it would seem silly not to start using it ‘officially’, to tackle big field handicaps.

For consistency, I would also look to use a variation of the matrix method, to handle standard tips.

The matrix method typically allocates 20 units per race.
This equates to 2pts - so instead of tipping using pts, I would stake tips using 'units' (1pt would become 10 units).
This would mean that I could also have official savers on dangers (1 or 2 unit bets).
Which in turn, would encourage me to bet in more races (as I would be able to mitigate the chance of losing).

So all in all, I’m proposing some pretty significant changes !

- Previews produced early (without bets/tips), in the form of ‘short-lists’ or angles
- Tips/bets issued later (generally between 11:00 and 12:00)
- Bets in more races - and often, multiple selections per race
- Staking in ‘Units’ rather than pts (where 10 units equals 1pt)

Individuals would be given the option of subscribing to: the previews; the tips/bets: or both.
Subscribing to the previews would mean that you would get early sight of my thoughts (which would help, if you did want to bet early).
Subscribing to the bets/tips would mean that you would get my view on the best bets available in a mature market.

A limited ‘discussion’ on most of the above took place in the forum, in response to me sending out the email on the matrix method.
Generally, the proposals were well received - but I’m conscious that’s only the opinion of a few !

I’ll be issuing a satisfaction survey in the next few days, and I’ll add a few questions to that, which will hopefully help me gauge whether the majority of you would be happy for the service to move in the direction described (after all, you are my customers :) )

Anyway, I think that covers just about everything - apart from a few words of thanks…

The guys who have always supported the service, thankfully continue to do so.
They are ofcourse, led by Chris - whose contribution (particularly behind the scenes) grows on an annual basis.

Thanks also this season, should go to all of you.

When things became a particular struggle at the end of January, I was heartened by how much support I received.

I’ve always maintained that TVB is more like a community than a service - and your responses during that period, confirmed that…

Hopefully, the world can get on top of Coronavirus relatively quickly - and there will still be a bit of the summer, left for us to enjoy.

All being well, I certainly intend to be back in touch in the autumn - and I reckon the 9th TVB season just might be, the best one yet :)

Stay safe,

TVB.

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