Saturday 30 November 2019

Review of the day

Two seconds, a fall, an unseat - and a huge run from a rank outsider, make it sound like todays tips were a bit unlucky.

Maybe they were - but in truth, I wasn’t massively surprised that it ended up a blank day.

Some days (like yesterday !), things feel right; other days (like today !), they don’t…

Ofcourse it’s always easier with hindsight - and days can sometimes surprise - but today didn’t !

In truth, it wasn’t helped by the uncertainty this morning over whether racing at Newcastle was going to take place (and where Lady Buttons would run) - and the fact it was nearly impossible to get a half decent price on anything I fancied.

Deciding on - and issuing tips - is hard enough at the best of times - so that kind of confusion and difficulty is never going to help…

Anyway, in terms of what did happen !

Westend Story and Sametegal were unlucky to bump into a horse with at least 10lb in hand of his mark.
Pre-race, it was hard to anticipate that was going to be the case - but during the race, Bennys King travelled with zest. First serving it up to and breaking, Westend Story - and then comfortably fending off Sametegal.

All a little frustrating - but these things happen…

The next tips to run were in the Ladbroke Trophy.
West Approach was backed into favouritism - but he decanted Robbie Power at the sixth fence.
It was too early to say for sure, but I would have been amazed if he’d been involved in the finish.

Walt ran a much better race (particularly considering his price) - and turning in, still looked to have every chance.
Somewhat ironically, I had been drawn to him because of his course form with De Rasher Counter.
At the revised weights he should have come out on top in their personal battle - but that’s not how it panned out !

As Walt started to weaken, De Rasher Counter powered on - leading home a trio of soft ground lovers !
Maybe the going wasn’t quite as quick as I thought (or maybe they watered overnight ;) )

The final tip on the day was Captain Chaos.
He was probably the one I fancied most - but he looked beaten leaving the back straight.
However, the pace had been strong - clearly too strong - and as the leaders began to falter, he started to stay on.

The only trouble was, he was staying on, in company with this seasons Scottish national winner, Takingrisks - and ultimately, that one stayed just a bit better !

Captain Chaos was beaten less than a length - which was a quite bizarre as he never really looked like winning !

As for the days Mentions:

Downtown Getaway was backed in to a scarcely believable 15/8 at the off (I did say he might go off close to 2/1 !).
However, he was a bit too free, made mistakes - and was pulled up after jumping the third last.
His stablemate, The Cashel King, stole the race from the front - and neither Mr Pumblechook nor Star of Lanka could get to him.

Scarlet Dragon ran a good race in the Gerry Fielden - but was no match for the 3 Nicky Henderson horses - there were no excuses there.

There were also no excuses for Magic Saint.
He remained at 3/1, right to the off - and after travelling like a dream throughout, just managed to get the better of Bun Doran in a driving finish.
Now why didn't that happen at Cheltenham, in March ?!

TVB

Daily write-up - Nov 30th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Newcastle and Bangor in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s day 2 of the winter carnival at Newbury - Hennessey day (sic Ladbroke Trophy day); whilst in Ireland, it is day 1 of the winter festival at Fairyhouse.

Newbury host another excellent card - and better than that, having raced there yesterday - and with no overnight rain - we’ve got a good idea of how the ground will be riding (how novel is that !).

By contrast, there is little to get excited about at Fairyhouse.
The feature race on the card has attracted just the 6 runners - and makes no appeal as a betting medium.
Things will be much better there tomorrow - so I’ll put the meeting on hold until then.

Elsewhere, Newcastle has survived an early inspection - and the ‘Fighting Fifth’ is the feature.

There are no ‘big race’ pretensions at Bangor - though it’s an interesting enough card.

In terms of tips, then I’ve struggled to get us on some of the ones I fancy today...

Most of that is simply down to prices: the prices that I was after weren’t there early this morning - and they still weren’t there later !
With so many tipsters issuing their tips the evening before, it becomes hard, because the bookmakers are extremely defensive.

There is a distinct possibility that some of the horses I like will drift to an acceptable price close to the off (that could easily be the case with Downtown Getaway and Magic Saint) - but that’s no good to me from a tipping perspective.

Anyway, I’ve expressed my views in the write-up - and you can all take whatever action you deem appropriate !

Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 5 tips in 3 races - but before I get on to the rationale for them - just a quick word on the ‘Naps competition’ which will get under way in the forum tomorrow…

As regular readers will know, the TVB December Naps competition is one of the high-lights of the TVB season !

As the name suggests, it is a Naps competition, that runs during December (reminds me of the all day boat party, from the Inbetweeners :) )

Simply, you just have to submit a Nap a day (via the thread on the forum) during December - and whoever has the biggest profit at the end of the month, scoops £100 !
Better than that, if your Naps end the month in profit - then you get a free £10 bet on a horse of your choice, on New years day.
It’s incredibly simple - and best of all, free to enter (so there is no excuse for not doing so !).

Historically, the competition has been run by Dave - but he’s busy sunning himself in Mexico at the moment (!), so Francis has generously offered to step in and pick up the mantle.

If you are interested in playing (and why wouldn’t you be ?!) - all of the details can be found on the following thread in the forum: http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/December-Naps-Competition-f18113.html


Right - on to the rational for the tips - and my thoughts on the days other big races…


Newbury

1:15

I really do sometimes wish that I could tip the night before !
Last night, I narrowed this race down to 3 - and at the prices available then, would have been quite happy to support any of the 3.
The 3 in question are Westend Story, Sametegal and Molineaux.
I fancy Molineaux least - but at last nights 14/1, he would have been worth half a point. However, at this mornings 7/1, there is minimal appeal.
I struggle a little more, to choose between the other 2.
They have very different profiles - and it’s quite easy to make a case for them both.
Sametegal hasn’t run for nearly 2 years - but has a great record fresh and his last win (over todays course), was off a mark 6lb higher than he races off today.
Bearing in mind how fragile he is, I’ m pretty sure Paul Nichols will have him spot on today - and he is just about worth a play, at 13/2.
Westend Story is a younger horse - with more potential.
He’s only run twice over fences - but his debut fourth at Exeter last season, was in a ridiculously strong race.
He clearly needed his seasonal debut last month - and is potentially thrown in off a mark of 134.
11/2 is a fair price for him - even in a 17 runner race.
The only other one worth a mention, is Tiquer.
He’s incredibly fragile - but very talented. He needs soft ground - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pulled out if connections consider it too quick.
If he does run, then he could be worth a tiny play, just in case…

1:50

I’m pretty keen on Downtown Getaway in this - but I just can’t tip him at 7/2.
He’s very unexposed (only 3 runs over hurdles) and has the potential to be way better than his current mark of 131.
In fact, based simply on the form he showed in a couple of novice hurdles last season, he could easily be rated 10lb higher.
More than that, Nicky Henderson threw him into grade 1 company on his final start last season, which gives an indication of how highly he is rated.
He was sent off at just 8/1 that day - but ran a relatively disappointing race.
I’ve no issue forgiving him that run - and it really wouldn’t surprise me, if he bolted up this afternoon.
The only thing is, his jumping was a bit scratchy last season - and that’s not what you want in a 17 runner handicap.
Also, he is making his seasonal debut - and I’ve no idea what the plans are for the rest of the season (this could be just to blow away the cobwebs before switching his attention to chasing).
If he’s well supported close to the off (and it’s not impossible that he could go off at close to 2/1 !), then I’ll be very surprised if he’s beaten.
It’s also not impossible that he’ll drift and win (because he could just be too well handicapped).
In terms of supporting him, then it all comes down to the price you can get (and the proximity to the off).
I would have tipped him at 9/2 this morning - and would have considered 4/1 (though probably resisted).
In terms of the others, then Mr Pumblechook and Star of Lanka are the 2 who appeal most.
That said, I can’t make anywhere near as strong a case for them, as I can for Downtown Getaway !

2:25

I’m struggling a bit with this race, because instinctively, I want to oppose most of the runners !
Elusive Bella and Epatante head the market - and they are both unexposed mares, trained by Nicky Henderson.
It’s not easy to get a handle on either of them - and I suspect the market will advise on their chances, close to the off…
Elvis Mail is next in the betting - and whilst he looked really impressive last time at Ayr, it generally pays for oppose northern trained runners at the big southern tracks.
Crooks Peak is quite interesting - but has been very well backed.
He was 12/1 last night - but is half that price now.
There was almost certainly value in the early price - but I think that has now gone.
Scarelt Dragon is the one I got closest to tipping.
He was an impressive winner at Market Rasen last time - but was raised a harsh looking 9lb for that win.
That means he has top weight in this race.
7/1 is probably a fair price - but against a number of tricky opponents, I can’t quite bring myself to tip him.

3:00

The unexpectedly quick ground (relatively speaking), has seen the market for this race, turned on its head…
The likes of OK Corral, De Rasher Counter, Mister Malarky, Elegant Escape, Robinsfirth and The Conditional, are all drifting in the betting, because of their preference for soft ground.
West Approach doesn’t have a marked ground preference - but I’d prefer it not too soft, if only because it reduces the chance of some of his main opponents !
He’s a horse who has shown high class form over hurdles - but not managed to replicate that over fences.
In fact, he was only fifth in this race last year - when he ran off a mark 4lb lower !
However, it does appear as if the penny has dropped with him jumping-wise this year - or maybe Robbie Power has found the right slot !
He’s looked a much improved fencer on his 2 runs - both at Cheltenham - finishing second on the first and then winning comfortably on his most recent outing.
The form of neither race is anything special - but it’s more the fact that if he has cracked jumping a fence, there could be lots of latent potential.
Certainly his 2 length second to the now 169 rated Paisley Park in last years Long Walk hurdle, suggest that he could be thrown in off mark of 146.
To an extent, it’s a case of you pay your money and make your choice.
It can be argued that he’s incredibly well handicapped - or it can be argued that he is not well handicapped at all !
I just think that at around 8/1, it’s worth chancing that it’s the former…
At a massive price, I think it is also worth taking a very small risk on Walt.
He’s a quirky horse - but he won last years Racing Post chase (as was) - and is handicapped to comfortably beat De Rasher Counter, based on their meeting at Newbury in December.
He has a marked preference for decent ground - and simply, shouldn’t be a 66/1 shot…

3:40

I’m struggling to see beyond Magic Saint in this - but I can’t quite bring myself to take 3/1 about him.
To be fair, I think it can be argued that it’s a reasonable price in a relatively weak race - however, he’s disappointed me previously when I really fancied him, so it may be a case of once bitten, twice wary !
In terms of the case for him - then a fair bit of it is around potential.
He’s got some decent form - but it’s more that he’s still only 5 and therefore has plenty of potential upside.
He was sent off favourite for last seasons Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival (when I tipped him !) - but he disappointed that day.
In fact, based on that run, he shouldn’t beat Bun Doran today.
He’s not done much in his 3 subsequent runs, either - though I did think he travelled notably well in the BetVictor gold cup, behind Happy Diva.
If that run has brought him on, then I would expect him to go very close today.
Part of the reason for fancying him is the lack of credible opponents.
Bun Doran clearly has a chance: as does Whatswrongwithyou. However, they are second and third favourites - so have hardly been missed !
If there is to be a shock, then Theo is the one I would think most likely to cause it.
He’s possibly worth a small play, at around 20/1.


Newcastle

2:05

I think it goes without saying, that Buveur Dair should win this…
He’s rated almost a stone superior to his closest rival, Silver Streak - and that one has a marked preference for decent ground (which he is definitely not going to get !).
As a consequence, Lady Buttons is likely to prove Buveur Dair biggest danger - but assuming he’s fully wound up - and nothing untoward happens, she shouldn’t really test him.
It’s a similar case to Paisley Park, yesterday: I don’t think Buveur Dair is a certainty - and I can imagine a few scenarios whereby he gets beaten.
However, in all probability, his superior class will see him home in front.
Not really a betting race then…

3:20

It looks to me as if Captain Chaos has been targeted at this race, by Dan Skelton.
He finished runner up in the corresponding race 12 months ago, beaten 3 lengths by Lake View Lad.
Captain Chaos is 16lb better off in the weights today - and with the benefit of a couple of runs this season, really should reverse the form.
In fairness, his 2 runs this season have been poor. However it was a similar story coming in to the race 12 months ago - and the refitting of headgear today (cheek pieces for the first time), strongly suggest that those runs were simply to get him fit - and get a few pounds off his mark.
He’s the only runner Dan Skelton sends to Newcastle today - and I’ll be a bit disappointed if he leaves empty handed.
That said, there are a few potential dangers in todays contest - though all of them come with a question mark of some kind…
Jonniesofa was very impressive when winning last time - but that was on the back of a huge absence - and there must be a chance he will ‘bounce’ today (even ignoring the much stronger opposition).
Top Ville Ben could be dangerous - but it’s impossible to know whether he is well handicapped - and he has shown all his best form at Wetherby (which is admittedly, quite a similar course to Newcastle).
Captain Redbeard should go well - but he’s pretty exposed and not getting any younger.
As a consequence, Kilfilum Cross looks the main danger.
But he’s not completely proven in the ground - and is plenty short enough in the betting (3/1).



Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips


Newb 1:15 Sametegal 0.5pt win 13/2
Newb 1:15 Westend Story 1pt win 11/2
Newb 3:00 West Approach 0.5pt win 8/1

Newb 3:00 Walt 0.25pt EW 66/1
Newc 3:20 Captain Chaos 1pt win 13/2

Mentions 


Newb 1:50 Downtown Getaway (P )
Newb 2:25 Scarlet Dragon (O )
Newb 3:40 Magic Saint (P )
 


The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Review of the day

It was nice to bag another winner this afternoon - just to keep things ticking over...

And if you’d asked me this morning, which of the days tips was most likely to collect, then I would certainly have nominated Oldgrangewood.
However, half way through his race, I thought he had absolutely no chance !

Simply, he didn’t look good enough to go with the strong gallop set by O O Seven.
By contrast, Kalashnikov, was just lobbing in behind the leader - looking completely different class to his rivals.

My only hope was that things might change in the home straight - when the effects of the frantic gallop started to kick in - and thankfully that’s precisely what happened.

Kalashnikov took up the running after jumping the third last - but he soon wasn’t going quite so easily - and it looked as if Glen Forsa might have his measure.
Kalashnikov did manage to fend him off - but all the time, Oldgrangewood was closing on the pair of them.

Approaching the last, Harry Skelton had got him into third place - though he was still at least 10 lengths behind the duelling leaders.

Then he switched on his turbo - and started gaining ground hand over fist.
When the line arrived , I thought he was still an inch short - but I was wrong !
Joyous news :)

Kalashnikov comes out of the race with just as much credit - and Glen Forsa, only a little less.
As for San Benedito - don’t be dropping him from that eye catcher list just yet, Chris ;)

Deyrann de Carjac was the next tip to run - and for a while I thought he was going to bring up a notable double.

He’s such a quick jumper of a fence - and has clearly improved massively for the switch from hurdles.

He tracked the front running Black Op (who was done a big favour, when Dashel Drashel fell at the first) - and continually fenced much quicker than Champ.

Tom Cannon pressed the button approaching the second last - and as Deyrann quickened - Champ seemed to hit a flat spot.

That was the moment I thought he had it won - but he slightly misjudged the second last and lost a bit of momentum.

Black Op and Champ are serious horses - and they took the opportunity to battle back - and by the last it was clear Deyrann wasn’t going to win.
He still ran a massive race to finish third - trading at 1.4 in running.

Don’t under-estimate him wherever he next runs - I think Sandown would be the ideal track for him…

Black Buble was the final tip to run - and whilst he was well beaten, I still thought he ran well.

The race wasn’t run to suit - with him sat at the back in a slowly run affair.

As a consequence he was never able to mount a challenge.

He’ll be dropped another pound for the run - and will have to be of great interest again next time…

The days two Mentions both finished second - which is exactly where Mentions are supposed to finish (ie. go close - but not quite win !).

Sully D’Oc AA ran a blinder in the novice handicap chase - but just bumped into one.
I would have been totally gutted if I’d tipped him - because there was no way of knowing how good Fanion D’estruval was.
He was making his UK debut for Venetia - and it turns out he is very good - very good indeed !
He laughed at Sully - who himself had the rest of the field well beaten.
It would have been a tough one to take.

Less tough would have been the defeat of Thistlecrack.
He ran almost exactly the race I expected - pushing Paisley Park close - but ultimately not being quite good enough.
The fire clearly still burns bright - and I could see him running a massive race in the King George (assuming he makes the line up)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 29th

It’s the opening day of the 2 day Winter Carnival at Newbury.

There has been a fair bit of rain this week, and the ground is expected to be riding on the soft side.

They've suffered significantly more rain in Doncaster - and their 2 day meeting has been abandoned.
As a consequence, the only other NH racing today, takes places at Limerick.

All eyes are likely to be focused on Newbury however, where they host a varied card - with a number of good quality races.

Furthermore, I have quite a strong view on all of them - aside from the 2 novice hurdles.
I’ve even managed to issue 3 tips - which is pretty good going for a Friday !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races…


Newbury

12:45

I did think that I’d be taking a speculative punt on Sully D’Oc AA in this, at a double figure price - so I was a bit surprised last night, when he opened up at 5/1 !
More than that, he was then backed - and at 4/1 when I went to bed, I was equally sure I wouldn’t be tipping him !
He’s drifted this morning - and is 7/1 as I type this - which I feel is about right.
If he’d made it to 8/1, I would have taken a risk - but I’ve run out of time, so he’ll have to be a Mention instead.
In terms of the case for him, then he caught my eye, travelling strongly in a decent race at Ascot last time.
He’s been dropped 4lb for that run - and cuts back half a mile in distance.
He’ll be winning sooner rather than later - and it could be today - but equally, it may not !
Certainly, this is a strong looking race.
I expected Southfield Stone to be quite a short priced fav - and arguably, he’s not a bad bet at 4/1.
However, the reality is, a case can be made for all 8 of the runners - and when that happens I feel you can only bet something at a ‘value’ price (in this case, 7/1 or bigger).
I could give half chances (better than their odds imply) to Encore Champs and Champagne City.
That said, both would be close to the bottom of my list of most likely winners (they are just theoretical value !).
In summary, if Sully drifts to 8/1, I’ll get involved: if he doesn’t I’ll watch the race with an eye to the future.

1:50

From a pure handicapping perspective, Oldgrangewood has an outstanding chance in this…
He won the corresponding race, 2 years ago, from a mark 10lb higher than the one he races off today.
He was put up 2lb for that win - and in truth, it’s hard to understand why he has  dropped back down to the mark he is now on.
He’s not been a model of consistency since that win - but he’s put in some very decent efforts, in strong handicaps - and I’m sure he can win off his current mark.
In truth, I was tempted by him last time, when he made his seasonal debut at Aintree.
The problem that day, was that there were just too many unknowns (fitness, opposition etc.) to justify supporting him at a relatively short price.
I did think that he might be very well backed that day.
Certainly, Dan Skelton had been talking up the positive impact of a recent wind op - so strong market support wouldn’t have been surprising.
However, it didn’t materialise - and I was left thinking it was more a prep run for another day (hopefully today !).
Clearly, everything will be in his favour this afternoon - it’s simply going to be a case of whether he is good enough…
A field of 12 suggests a competitive race - but I think at least half of the runners can be relatively safely dismissed (on the grounds of fitness, or handicap mark).
Kalashnikov is the big potential fly in the ointment.
Simply, he could be better than a handicapper - and we know from Sunday, how dangerous they can be !
If he were any kind of a price (7/2), I would save on him - but at 5/2, I feel we just have to take a risk.
Glen Forsa could be a danger - but the market is suggesting he will benefit from the run.
As a consequence, Eamon an Cnoic is the one I would be most fearful of (after Kalashnikov).
San Benedito was an eye catcher last time - and whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss, him, I suspect a midfield run and a a couple of pounds off his mark, would be considered a good days work (which makes him a bit tricky to support !)

2:25

This really is a sensational race !
Champ has been installed favourite - and whilst that’s perfectly understandable - and probably justified, I’m not sure he should be odds on.
He faces 5 very credible rivals - and if he’s not at the top of his game, he will get beaten.
A slight concern for him is that the 2m4f trip is an absolute minimum.
I suspect the race will be run at a good clip, so that will help - but at 4/5, you don’t want too many doubts…
Second favourite, Black Op, will be well suited by the trip - and he’s likely to be very dangerous.
As with Champ, he finished second in the Ballymore at the Cheltenham festival (a year earlier).
He was sent chasing last season - but it didn’t go well and after 2 disappointing runs, he was put back over the smaller obstacles, for the remainder of the season.
Connections tried again with fences this season, and he was most impressive, when winning at Stratford.
However, that was a much weaker race than todays - and he was doubtless helped enormously, by getting an uncontested lead, which meant he could jump at his leisure.
Dashel Drasher will almost certainly stop that from being the case this afternoon - and that could easily compromise Black Ops chance.
Dashel Drasher himself, shouldn’t be good enough, as he was beaten by Champ last time and there is no obvious reason for him to reverse the form (though I would expect him to run well).
Vision des Flos is a fascinating runner.
He’s the highest rated in the field over hurdles - so if he can translate that to fences, he’s going to be tough to beat.
However, he unseated on his only previous try over the bigger obstacles - so supporting him, wouldn’t be easy.
By contrast, Deyrann de Carjac is the lowest rated over hurdles (his is rated 23lb inferior to Vision des Flos !) - but he looks a complete natural over fences.
Having won on his chasing debut at Cartmel in May, he then took apart a strong field in a decent novice chase at Huntingdon.
He was a revelation that day - travelling strongly throughout and jumping like a cat.
He gave 5lb and a 3 length beating to Pym - and that one then came out and won a handicap at Ascot.
Pym is now rated 149 - so if the Huntingdon form can be believed, it means that Deyrann could be a mid 150s horse.
To be honest, I can believe that - it never fails to amaze me how much horses can improve for a fence - and I’m hopeful he is an example of such.
If he is that good, then he should be right in the mix today.
Clearly there is a lot of guesswork and supposition in a race like this - but simply, the price of Deyrann looks a fair bit too long and as such, he is worth a small play.

3:00

I was quite tempted to tip Thistlecrack in this.
Based purely on official ratings, he is the most likely winner - however, he is now pushing 12, so there is a chance he’s not as good as his rating implies.
However, age is not the main reason why I’ve resisted getting officially involved.
His main target for the season, is the King George on Boxing day - and the prime purpose of todays run, is to get him spot on for that.
Now, even that doesn’t mean he can’t win today - but I much prefer it when the horses I’m supporting are fulling revved up for their race…
The main reason why I considered tipping Thistlecrack, is because I don’t think that Paisley Park will be fully revved up today.
He was the best staying hurdler around, last season - and it could easily be the same again this season - but first time out, he is potentially vulnerable.
The challenge was therefore to find one to take him on with - and Thistlecrack looked most likely.
That said, I could also give a chance to The Worlds End.
He was quite impressive when winning on his return to hurdles at Wetherby and I would expect him to run well again, this afternoon.
The trouble is, he is rated 16lb inferior to Paisley Park - and it’s questionable whether fitness can make that amount of difference.
In truth, it might not have to - because tactics could also play a part.
The Worlds End is likely to force the pace - and if Paisley Park happens to get caught out of his ground, then he could pay a price.
Certainly, I can see ways that Paisley Park could lose - but they do require certain things, of which we currently have no knowledge (ie. fitness and pace). 
I couldn’t support Paisley Park in this - but equally, I can only make a speculative case for taking him on.
In the circumstances, it’s probably a race best watched…

3:35

If I’d not been so tardy updating the official eye catchers, then Black Buble would be on the list.
He caught my eye at Kempton last time, in a decent race won by Fleur Irlandaise.
The mare was different class to her rivals that day (despite starting at 100/1 !) - but Black Buble looked to me, like the second best horse in the race.
He travelled strongly - and after getting caught out when the pace quickened,  stayed on, until weakening after the last.
My feeling was that he needed the run - his second back after his summer break - and that he would be one to be interested in next time (ie. today !).
The case for him, is added to, by the fact the handicapper dropped him 1lb for the run - and that Jonjo O’Neil jnr returns to the saddle.
I wouldn’t just say his 3lb claim is a gift, I’d take him in preference to a number of professionals, who don’t claim !
Suffice to say, in my eyes, Black Buble is running from a mark 4lb lower today - and should be cherry ripe.
Whether he will get ideal conditions, I’m not so sure.
I don’t think the 3 mile trip will be a problem (in fact, he could improve for it) - but his record suggests he would prefer decent ground.
He may get away with it at Newbury - only time will tell.
Whatever, at 20/1, I felt he was worth a small risk.
A case can be made for a few of his rivals: with handicap debutants, Dolphin Square and One for the Team, looking the most dangerous.
However, the market is wise to them (as it generally is !)

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Newb 1:50 Oldgrangewood 1pt win 7/1
Newb 2:25 Deyrann de Carjac 0.5pt win 14/1
Newb 3:35 Black Buble 0.5pt win 20/1


Mentions
Newb 12:45 Sully D'Oc AA (P )
Newb 3:00 Thistlecrack (C )
 

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Sunday 24 November 2019

Review of the day

I’m sure a few of the service ‘old timers’ did a double take this morning , when they saw me tipping a 6/1 shot in a 23 runner handicap…

TVB wasn’t built on tipping short priced runners in big fields - it was built on the glorious victories of some spectacular long shots !

But alas, the world is changing…

Long shots simply don’t win valuable races very often nowadays - because someone knows they are primed to run for their lives - and they get backed accordingly !

10 years ago, a horse making it’s seasonal debut in a race at competitive as the Troytown, having been pulled up on its final outing last season, would have started at about 20/1.
And more than that, it wouldn’t have won !

However, things have changed.

You need to listen to - and look for - the subtle signs.

The market support Chris’s Dream received in 2 top class races last year, told me he was considered better than a handicapper.
Henry De Bromhead stating that the horse was best fresh, hinted at a possible plan.
And the fact he was allowed to compete in a big handicap on his seasonal debut, was the final piece of the jigsaw.

If you looked and listened hard enough - the clues were there…

Ofcourse, it’s still all has to fit together: the horse needs to get into a rhythm - and have luck-in running - but when the man on top is riding like Robbie Power is at the moment, those parts are far more likely to fall into place.

And so it happened.
The sustained market support told me this wasn’t just a TVB inspired gamble - and Robbie and Chris’s Dream did the rest.

The horse sat in behind the leaders - and never missed a beat.

Coming to the second last, it was a match up between him and Fitzhenry - and whilst the latter is a very decent handicapper, he’s not a graded horse.

Ultimately, it was a comfortable 10 length victory - and all of sudden a price of 6/1 looked a bit of a gift !

If only it always worked out that way…

Unfortunately, things didn’t go quite as well for the days 2 Mentions:

Triplicate made a mistake at the very first fence, which put him on the back foot.
He did make up ground down the back straight - but he was too far behind to challenge.
In truth, I doubt it would have mattered, as Cash Back won very impressively.
As I said this morning, the money often talks in these kind of races, so when he was backed down to even money, from an early 3/1, the suggestion was that he was expected to win.
It will be interesting to see whether he can progress from this and maintain the tradition of previous winners of the race.

Things didn’t work out too well for Flashjack, either…
I expected the ground to be borderline unraceable at Uttoxeter - but that wasn’t the case.
Flashjack is best when it becomes a game of ‘survival of the fittest’ - but instead the race turned into a sprint up the home straight,
In the circumstances, he did quite well to get within 4 lengths of the winner.
Maybe he’ll get that couple of pounds off his mark, which I expected following his previous run…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 24th

The abandonment of Exeter means that there are just 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Uttoxeter and Navan.

…and there isn’t a great deal to get excited about at Uttoxeter !

The feature race on the card, is a 6 runner class 3 handicap hurdle.
I’m not going to tip in it - though I do think that Flashjack will take a bit of beating - under ideal conditions, following his good debut run at Ayr, on the first Saturday of the TVB season.
Certainly, I you can secure 4/1, he’s worth a small risk.

In fairness, the Navan card is also a bit limited - with only a couple of races of interest.

There’s a fascinating beginners chase at 2:00 - and ofcourse, the Troytown chase at 2:30.

I was always reasonably committed to tipping in the Troytown - though I’ve changed my fancy for the race since the final declarations were made.
Let’s hope I’ve jumped the right way !

Here are my thoughts on the days 2 best races.


Navan

2:00

This is a race with a ridiculous history (considering it is only a beginners chase).
In the past 5 years, it has been won by Vautour, Douvan, Min, Al boom Photo and Jetz.
I’ve not counted - but between them, those 5 must have subsequently won about 20 Grade 1 chases !
The winner of todays race will certainly have something to live up to !

That said, there are some potentially very good horses in todays race - and it would be a little surprising if the winner didn’t go on to much better things.
The market is headed by I’m a Game Changer - and whilst that can possibly be justified based on form, he hasn’t got the potential of some of his rivals.
Cash Back and Demain Des L’Aube are far less exposed - and could literally be anything.
Both are ex French - and have only run 4 times in Ireland between them.
Demain Des L’Aube in particular, could be very good indeed.
That said, the one who interests me most, is Triplicate…
He was Grade 1 placed as a hurdler - and always looked the type to do better over fences.
A run over hurdles, at Down Royal, at the beginning of the month, should have blown away the cobwebs - and he looks to me, the one to beat.
I’m just a bit surprised that he is such a big price (8/1 with the bookies - 10 on the exchanges).
I’d be very tempted to tip him - but the trouble with these kind of races is that the market tends to know !
There is a chance that he needs the run - but any late support would make him very interesting…
Outside the main 4, Capuccimix is another who looks particularly interesting; with La Tektor, Caravation and Valdieu, 3 more worth keeping an eye on.
It’s fair to say, there are unlikely to be many more interesting beginners chases run this season !

2:30

Those who follow the eye catchers in the forum, won’t be surprised to hear that my start point for this race, was Shady Operator.
He caught my eye, on his seasonal debut at Galway, when finishing third to Portmore Lough.
He looked sure to come on hugely for that run - and I expect him to reverse the form with the race-fit winner, on 10lb better terms.
However, Shady Operator is trained by Jospeh O’Brien and owned by JP McManus - and they have another runner in the race in the shape of Tower Bridge.
Furthermore, jockey bookings suggest that Tower Bridge is the stables number 1.
That makes it hard for me to side with Shady Operator.
I could side with Tower Bridge - and I did consider that - but he is a little more exposed than I would like.
I would expect him to run well - but feel he might be vulnerable to a classier opponent.
2 such opponents head the market, in the shape of Chris’s Dream and Discorama.
They met in a grade 3 novice event at Naas in January - and there can be little doubt that Discorama would have won their personal duel, if he’d not fallen at the last.
As he has also had a run this season, it’s reasonable to think that Discorama should confirm that form today - but I’m not so sure…
Chris’s Dream was sent off a well backed 9/4 fav for the Naas race.
The expectation was that he would win.
Similarly, he was sent off at just 5/1 for the grade 1 novice chase at the Aintree Grand National meeting, on his penultimate run last season.
The only horses shorter than him in the betting, were Topofthegame and Losstintranslation - and both of those are Gold Cup class.
Chris’s Dream ran disappointingly in that race - but I don’t think that’s the point…
He’s clearly considered a top class horse - and he does have performances to back that up. The key, is to support him in the right conditions…
It would appear that connections have decided that he needs to be fresh.
Certainly he was impressive on his seasonal debut last season - so it’s hard to argue.
It’s also hard to argue with the fact he performs best on soft ground (which he will get today) - and at Navan (where he is unbeaten in his 2 previous outings).
The fact he likes to race prominently is a big plus in a race of this nature (and part of the reason I prefer him to the Joseph O’Brien pair); whilst Robbie Power in the saddle, is the ultimate cherry on top !
In short, he has perfect conditions; looks to have been targeted at the race; and could be very well handicapped.
The only thing not to like, is the price.
6/1 in a competitive 23 runner race, seems crazy.
However, there isn’t a lot I can do about that.
My expectation is that he will drift a little, close to the off - and those of you who are patient, will hopefully be able to get a point or two bigger.
At the end of the day, he was the horse I strongly wanted to side with - and I wasn’t prepared to switch allegiance, for a bit of ‘value’.
I’ll be surprised if I’ve not already mentioned the winner of the race somewhere - but one other worthy of note, is Redhotfillypeppers.
She’s the only runner in the race for Willie Mullins (which makes her interesting) - and she likes to front run.
I don’t think she is quite good enough to win - but she could be a good back to lay IR option.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Nav 2:30 Chris's Dream 1pt win 6/1

Mentions

Nav 2:00 Triplicate (C )
Utt 2:40 Flashjack (C )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

*Back-to lay IR

Nav 2:30 Redhotfillypeppers

*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race

Review of the day

You always need a bit of luck in this game - and whilst it could be argued that we have had some in the first few weeks of the season - we certainly didn’t get any today !

I issued 6 tips on the day - and 3 of them ran really well.
However, running really well is no good, unless you are backing EW - and as you know, TVB has a strong ‘win only’ ethos !

The first tip to run was Neachells Bridge - and despite a big price, he ran a huge race.
In fact, approaching the second last, it looked as if he might get the day off to a perfect start.
However, he couldn’t find any extra from that point - and Pym and Highest Sun, moved away from him.
He lost little in defeat - apart from the stake money !

The next tip to run was Rosy World - but she didn’t run anywhere near as well.
That was a little surprising, as she was very well backed (went off 7/2 co fav).
There were no apparent excuses for her - she just didn’t look good enough.

What was irritating, is that Coilite Eile and Drinks Interval fought out the finish - and they were the 2 that I’d nominated as the main dangers !

Fin and Game was the third tip to run - and a bit like Neachells Bridge, he put in an effort, much better than his price suggested - but not quite good enough to win.

He travelled strongly through the race - but just couldn’t get to Whoshotthesherrif.
That wasn’t the case for the well backed Bold Plan, who produced a strong run from the last to snatch victory from the game runner up.

The next tip to run was Acey Milan - and he looked particularly unlucky not to win.

Up with the pace throughout he just kept finding and finding -  and when he got the better of Ask Ben after jumping the last, he looked sure to win.

However, it was not to be.
He then began to tire - and inside the final 100 yards, Stoney Mountain ran him down.

I’ve had tips collared a few times on the run on at Haydock - and it doesn’t get any easy to take !

By comparison, the final 2 tips of the day performed disappointingly.

Speredek was the first of them to run.
He sat in behind a very strong early pace, set by Imperial Presence and Knocknanuss.
In truth, the pace looked too strong (the 3 of them were about 20 lengths clear of the field, after 3 fences) - and sure enough, they were all starting to struggle as the end of the back straight approached.

In a repeat of the race from earlier in the month, Diego du Charmil and Capeland cruised by them - and this time, it was the latter who proved strongest.
I could have been very interested in him at a price - but 7/2 this morning just felt too short in such a strong race.

Zerachiel was the final tip to run - and his race lasted precisely 2 fences !
That’s a fence more than his seasonal debut run 12 months ago, when he fell at the first - so I guess you could say that he’s improving !

With him out of the race, it seemed inevitable that Moving in Style would win (as I had thought long and hard about tipping him).

However, he couldn’t quite get to the veteran Perfect Candidate, who stayed on well, to take advantage of his much reduced mark.

It was a similar story of near misses with the day Mentions:
Both Call me Lord and Midnight Shadow, traded long odds on in running - but came out second best in tight finishes.

Frodon didn’t trade odds on - in fact, he was totally outclassed by Bristol de Mai and Lostintranslation, in an enthralling Betfair chase.
The younger horse came out on top and it will take a very good one to beat him this season.

And Cyrname could just be that horse !
He became the first horse to beat Altior over obstacles - and there was no fluke about it.

There is the possibility that Altior isn’t as good as he used to be - but there is also the possibility that Cyrname is an exceptional animal.

Doubtless all will be revealed over the next few months…!

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 23rd

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ascot, Haydock & Huntingdon in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

Without doubt, today sees the best racing of the season so far.

Ascot and Haydock have put on top class cards, that have both quality and variety.

The feature chases at each venue, have only drawn small fields - but they are still absolutely fascinating contests.

Whilst if betting is your thing (which presumably it is, for most of you :) ) then there are a host of suitable races, in which it is possible to take a stance.

The action isn’t quite at the same level at either Gowran or Huntingdon - though there are a couple of decent chases taking place at the former track.
I’ve not looked at either race in detail though - all my attention was focused on the days main meetings…

Overnight rain - and the possibility of pre-race rain - hasn’t helped in assessing the going at either course.

Ascot looked quite hard work yesterday - and I suspect it will be even more so, this afternoon.
The ground at Haydock is supposed to be relatively good (for the time of year) - though obviously we won’t get confirmation of that, until it’s too late !

Finding horses to tip today, really wasn’t a problem - the problem was selecting the ‘right’ ones.

I do think that all the tips that I issued were good bets - though only time will tell whether the good bets are also winning ones !
Fingers crossed on that score…

Here’s the rationale behind the tips I did issue - along with my thoughts on the other big races at both Ascot and Haydock.


Ascot

12:55

I do love novice handicap chases - and this is a particularly fine example !
With just the 8 runners - and a couple near the head of the market that I’m happy to oppose - it has a very nice betting shape.
Pym is the fancied horse which I want to take on: I’m not convinced about him on soft ground and with top weight.
And if I take on him. I also have to take on Erick le Rouge - as Pym finished ahead of that one, last time, at Huntingdon.
I can’t have Spiders Bite, without a previous run (he’s a gross horse); whilst Deise Aba dropped out alarmingly, on his most recent run - and Kapgarrys 9lb rise for his win at Wetherby, makes him look vulnerable.
As a consequence, I’m left with a short list of 3: Highest Sun, Darling Maltix and Neachells Bridge.
Highest Sun is the most solid of the trio - but he is also 5/2 fav - and unproven over todays trip.
As a consequence, the 2 to focus on from a betting perspective, are Darling Maltix and Neachells Bridge.
They met last time, at the beginning of the month, in a similar race over todays course.
Darling Maltix came out on top that day - and was making his seasonal debut.
However, Neachells Bridge suffered some serious late interference, which cost him any chance.
Both have been dropped in the handicap on the back of that run - and choosing between them isn’t easy.
I suspect that Darling Matix has the ability to win a race such as this - and will love the soft ground: but Neachells Bridge is the more straightforward - and also a bigger price !
I also think Neachells Bridge will relish the step up in trip.
Neachells Bridge it is then !

1:30

Rosy World holds quite a bit of appeal in this.
I fancied her the last time she ran, at Aintree, 2 weeks ago.
That was her first try at 3 miles and she looked sure to appreciate the step up in trip.
However, the race didn’t work out for her that day, as she had to make the running in a small field.
Ultimately, she became a sitting duck - and her 2 main rivals sprinted past her, after jumping the last.
She gets to run in a bigger field today - and there is almost certainly going to be pace, courtesy of Marienstar, Drinks Interval or Same Circus.
That scenario should suit Rosy World much better - and enable her to show what she is capable of.
And I’m very hopeful that she is capable of showing herself a fair bit better than her current rating of 118.
She is relatively unexposed, with only 6 previous runs over hurdles, so there is still plenty of scope for improvement.
I also like the fact that Ben Godfrey returns to the saddle having missed out at Aintree, last time.
He rode her when she won at Plumpton last March - and is good value for his 7lb claim.
Of her rivals, then Coilite Eile concerns me most: whilst Drinks Interval is handicapped to win, if she is able to translate her chase form back to the smaller obstacles.

2:05

Altior v Cyrname
I don’t think I can say much that hasn’t already been said about this match up.
The highest rated horse in training (Cyrname), taking on a horse who is unbeaten in 19 runs over obstacles.
From a purest perspective, it doesn’t get much better than this.
Altior is stepping up in trip from 2 miles for the first time - but last season, it looked as if that needed to happen.
Cyrname should have perfect conditions, in terms of course, trip and ground.
Both horses are making their seasonal debut - and fitness could be crucial.
My feeling is that Altior is a superstar: whilst Cyrname isn’t - yet !
I don’t expect Altior to have any issue with the trip - and Cyrname is likely to provide a target for him to aim at.
If forced, I’d side with Altior - but no one is forcing me - and this is very much a race that should be savoured…

2:40

Assuming he is close to his peak, then Call me Lord should win this.
On official ratings, he is the joint highest rated horse in the race - but he receives 6lb from If the Cap Fits (the other joint highest rated runner).
Furthermore, If the Cap Fits is second best in at the weights, according to the official marks.
That in itself wouldn’t make Call me Lord a compelling selections - but the fact that he will get his ideal conditions, makes him very hard to oppose.
He’s a horse who must go right handed (his best form is at Sandown): he also wants 2m4f and soft ground - both of which he will get this afternoon.
As the youngest horse in the race, he has most scope for improvement - so his chance does look very good indeed.
The only real question mark concerns his fitness - but I reckon Nicky Henderson will have him pretty fit.
I suspect that even at 95%, he will be able to win this - which means he’s probably value at around 2/1.
Roksana is the obvious danger.
She shouldn’t be capable of beating him, based on ratings - but she has the benefit of race fitness and I’ve no doubt Harry Skelton will be looking to make the most of that.
Our old buddy, Lil Rockerfeller is the only other one who has run previously this season - and I suspect he can outrun his odds.
Whether he can beat Call me Lord (or even Roksana) however, is a very different matter…

3:20

This is an extremely valuable handicap - and it’s drawn a suitably competitive field.
Diego du Charmil did us a big favour last time - and on the face of it, I would give him a decent chance of following up today, off a mark just 5lb higher.
Certainly, he looked value for more than 5lb when he won (having lost all momentum, when ploughing through the edge of the fence !) - but part of the angle with him that day, was the fact he was fresh - so obviously that’s not the case today.
I certainly wouldn’t dismiss his chance - though on the book, he should struggle to account for Capeland (the horse he took out, when he veered approaching the last).
He’s an understandable favourite - but I really couldn’t back anything, at 4/1 in this race…
Knocknanus should have the measure of The Last Day, based on their meeting at Newbury, 12 months ago (accepting that the latter may have improve since then) - however, it’s anyones guess what impact the fitting of first time blinkers, will have to the already head strong Knocknanus.
Apparently the hope is that they will get him to jump straight - I guess time will tell…
From a pure handicapping perspective, a good case can be made for Speredek.
He finished runner up in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and gets to run from a mark 4lb lower, today.
I’m not sure he’s done much to warrant that drop in the handicap - and he should certainly be able to reverse the form with Caid du Lin, who beat him just over a length that day - but is 10lb worse off today.
Speredek actually ran in Diegos race last time - and finished well beaten.
However, he travelled nicely to the home turn - and it did look very much like a prep for today.
I’ll be surprised if he is able to lead today (I expect Knocknanus will take on that role !) - but I would expect him to sit in just behind and hopefully take over, down the home straight.
That’s the theory, anyway !


Haydock

1:15

Midnight Shadow really should win this.
He’s the highest rated horse in the field - yet receives weight from all but one of his rivals (and he’s rated 13lb superior to that one !).
Admittedly, his rating is based on his hurdles mark - but it’s quite reasonable to think he will be at least as good over fences, as he is over hurdles…
Certainly, he would have won on his chasing debut at Carlisle last time - but for a final fence fall.
That’s always a danger with a novice - and there is no way of knowing whether it will have affected his confidence.
If it hasn’t, then over a more suitable trip (todays race is over half a mile further), he really should take the world of beating - provided you are prepared to ignore one thing…
His trainer, Sue Smith, hasn’t trained a winner since last spring.
In that time she has sent out 76 runners - and every one has been beaten !
In fairness, a few have been unlucky (like Midnight Shadow) - but it is still a desperately poor situation.
Certainly, it would be very difficult to back a horse at less than 2/1, hailing from a stable with that kind of record…
By contrast, just about everything Fegal O’Brien saddles at the moment, win - which makes his Jarveys Plate a more attractive option.
He has also only run once over fences - but that was when defeating the potentially high class Reserve Tank, at Chepstow.
That is stronger form than Midnight Shadows run at Carlisle (even if he hadn’t fallen), so when coupled with the stable form, it makes Jarveys Plate the more attractive option.
Of the others, then Actival won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and is likely to have been targeted at it again.
He has a bit to do from a handicapping perspective - but his greater experience could prove an asset.

1:50

Some times you have to go with your hunches - and my hunch is that Fin and Game is a good bet in this !
For a start, he’s the only runner at the track, for Donald McCain.
That’s unusual, as it’s one of his local courses - and he generally comes mob handed.
It’s not as if the stable is in poor form, either: it has 2 big priced winner at Catterick yesterday - and has been operating at a strike rate of over 20% for the past few weeks.
Obviously, stable form is just one thing - I like to be able to make a case for the horse as well - and that’s quite easy to do with Fin and Game…
When he won his maiden hurdle, 2 season ago, he destroyed Not that Fuisse by 9 lengths.
That one is now rated 131 - Fin and Game runs today off a mark of 124.
He won twice more than season - before switching to fences last season.
However, that didn’t go well - and was shelved after just 2 runs.
Back over hurdles, he was runner up to Cornerstone Lad, over today course, last December.
Cornerstone Lad is now rated 16lb higher than he was that day, showing Fin and Game had a near impossible task, trying to beat him.
There is little doubt in my mind that Fin and Game is a potentially well handicapped horse - and I think todays step up in trip, could suit him well.
The fact it is his seasonal debut, is a slight concern - but he has a good record fresh.
In terms of his opponents - then plenty can be given a chance - but non particularly worry me.
If Fin and Game is as good as I think he could be - and if he’s been targeted at this race, as I suspect - then it will take a very well handicapped horse to beat him.

2:25

It’s no exaggeration to say that you won’t see a more competitive handicap than this, before the Cheltenham festival !
17 runners - and all bar 2 or 3 can be given a serious chance.
It’s definitely a race which should be watched closely, with an eye to the future.
As for today, then the one that appeals most, is Acey Milan.
He was a top class bumper horse, 2 seasons back - finishing fourth in the Cheltenham  bumper, when sent off 9/2 favourite.
On the back of that, he was supposed to turn into a serious novice hurdler last season - but that just didn’t happen.
He was a beaten favourite when heavily odds on, for his first 2 runs - and whilst he managed to win his third race, that was a run-of-the-mill novice event at Plumpton.
As a consequence, he got an opening handicap mark of just 127 - and the expectation was that he would take advantage of that…
However, he again disappointed, when only finishing third at Uttoxeter - and then unplaced at the Punchestown festival.
He ran better on his seasonal return at Plumpton 2 weeks ago - but still managed to find one too good.
So, in such a competitive race, why do I think he will come good this afternoon ?
Well firstly, he’s still only 5 - so still has plenty to learn and lost of improving to do.
There was definite promise in his comeback run - and a 3lb claimer takes over in the saddle today.
The fitting of cheek pieces for the first time, suggests connections are going for it - and with such a big pot on offer, that makes sense.
At the end of the day, a horse who was expected to be running in last seasons Ballymore hurdle, is instead competing off an effective mark of 122 in a handicap.
He’s fit - and his stable is in form.
There is plenty to like.
What I don’t like so much, is his current price of 8/1 !
He was 14/1 this morning - but I suspect was tipped just before I tipped him.
That caused a price crash which shows little sign of relenting !
At 8/1, I wouldn’t have tipped him (I would have thought twice at 10/1).
As I said, this is a hyper competitive race - and you definitely need some margin to get involved.
There are dangers every way you look: Tedham and Breaking Waves are clearly both well fancied; whilst I’ve had a saver on Umbrigado (at 9/1).
Stoney Mountain, Ask Ben and Echiquier are 3 more who now look over-priced - but, so strong is the race, I won’t be surprised if they don’t even place !

3:00

It might not quite be Altior v Cyrname - but Bristol de Mai v Lostintranslation, is still a match to get the blood racing.
Bristol is unbeaten in 4 previous runs at Haydock - and has won the past 2 runnings of this race: whilst Lostintranslation, looked a superstar in waiting, when he put in a faultless round of jumping, on his seasonal debut at Carlisle.
Again, it is anyones guess who will come out on top - though unlike the Ascot race, there is a real chance that they both might get trumped !
Frodon is only rated 1 pound inferior to Bristol (and 8lb superior to Lostintranslation) - and 3 miles around Haydock on decent ground, should be perfect for him.
He was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Aintree - but that race was a bit of a farce (half the fences were taken out) - and at least it will have blown away the cobwebs.
Certainly, if he had been 7/1 this morning, then I would have tipped him.
I felt that 6/1 was borderline - because 5/1 strikes me as the right price.
And surprise, surprise, 5/1 is now the price that he can be backed at !
I wouldn’t put anyone off getting involved at that price - but I don’t see any value in it.
Ultimately, this race is likely to come down to tactics and jumping.
All 4 runners can front run - but I suspect Frodon will take up the mantle.
It will then come down to how they all jump - and whether Bryony can get the fractions right.
If she does, then I think Frodon can just about win - if she doesn’t then Bristol and Lostintranslation are likely to come sailing by, down the home straight.
It should be a fascinating watch…

3:40

This is another open looking race.
There are only 9 runners - but a case can be made for the entire field.
Furthermore, there are also question marks over all of them - so figuring out the most likely winner is quite a challenge !
I’ve opted to side with Zerachiel - despite the fact that he is making his seasonal debut.
In fairness, the horse has shown a few times that he can run well when fresh - so I don’t expect that to be an issue today.
Certainly the fitting of a first time visor suggests that connections are in the race to win - and not just planning a run round !
He finished second on the Lincolnshire national on what was effectively his seasonal return 12 months ago - so the extreme distance shouldn’t be a problem.
He has also shown his best form at Haydock - when hacking up over todays course and distance, 18 months ago.
In short, he has ticks in sufficient boxes, to warrant a risk at the price.
I did half consider dutching him with Moving in Style.
Again, it’s not hard to make a case for him - and like Zerachiel, he looks to offer a bit of value at around 8/1.
The only thing is, I think the value in them both is close to the minimum I would accept - so I felt happier just taking one shot at the race, and going with the horse which I fancy slightly more.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips

Asc 12:55 Neachells Bridge 0.5pt win 20/1
Asc 1:30 Rosy World 1pt win 11/2
Asc 3:20 Speredek 0.5pt win 10/1
Hayd 1:50 Fin and Game 1pt win 11/1
Hayd 2:25 Acey Milan 0.5pt win 12/1
Hayd 3:40 Zerachiel 0.5pt win 9/1

Mentions

Asc 2:40 Call me Lord (P )
Hayd 1:15 Midnight Shadow (C )
Hayd 3:00 Frodon (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

Thursday 21 November 2019

Review of the day

There was no joy with either of today tips - on what ended up a bit of a frustrating afternoon…

Chic Name was the first of them to run - and whilst he finished third, I was still a little disappointed.

The trouble was, at no point in the race, did he look like winning - in fact, it was only after jumping the last that he even looked like placing !

If 3m6f on heavy ground is insufficient stamina test, you do wonder where he’ll end up (the Eider, maybe..?!)

The frustrating aspect, was that the race was won by the French raider Diesel D’allier.
He was virtually impossible to fancy, as he had little recent form - and appeared to be the stable second string (filling the horsebox).

However, that theory was put into question when he was backed from an early 16/1 in to 13/2 at the off (whilst his stablemate drifted from 5/2 to 5/1).
Somebody clearly knew the market had them the wrong way round.

Ultimately, they finished first and second, so Chic Name wasn’t winning whatever - it was still a bit annoying though !

Saint Calvados was the other tip on the afternoon - and the irritation there, was far more obvious…

The big attraction with him was race fitness, ideal conditions - and the potential to control the race from the front.

However, for some inexplicable reason, Gavin Sheehan decided it would be a better idea to hold the horse up - and try to beat his rivals, with a turn of foot (which he doesn’t really possess !).

They were just stupid tactics - and in a slowly run race, the finishing kick of Defi du Seuil just got the better of the enterprisingly ridden Politologue.

Sometimes you are just left scratching your head…

As for the Mentions:
Then Mc Alpine never really featured in the opener - a race won by Duc de Beauchene, who put in a much improved performance (who would have guessed it ?!)
Rouge Vif didn’t seem to relish the soft ground in the novice chase - but Put the Kettle On, seemed quite happy on it !
As expected, she led from flag fall - and had plenty left in the tank, for the climb to the winning post.
Harambe rubbed some salt into the wounds by winning the Greatwood hurdle.
I can’t say that I was massively keen on his chance - but I did think he could have been under-estimated.
He just got home in a 4 way driving finish.
The bumper was also a tactical race - and again, it was the horse who led early, that came home in front.
This time it was Israel Champ, who under an enterprising ride from Tom Scudamore, managed to hold off the favourite.
Dusty’s Choice never featured…

Over at Fontwell, Our Merlin ran a fair race - but could only finish fourth (does that count as placing ?!).
Interestingly, he didn’t make the running - suggesting to me that connections realise he is currently a bit too high in the handicap.
Finally, Captain Cattistock got within a neck of winning the Southern National - but ultimately couldn’t concede 23lb to One of Us.
You had to feel a little sorry for him, as it was a huge effort under a welter burden…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 17th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Cheltenham and Fontwell in the UK - and Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

It’s rare for the best racing on a Sunday, to take place on the east side of the Irish sea - but it does today.

Obviously, that’s mainly because its the second (and final) day of the Open meeting at Cheltenham - though Fontwell also provides a couple of decent contests…

In fairness, it’s not that the racing in Ireland is poor - just that the overall standard of the racing, has improved this weekend.

There is actually a Grade 2 event taking place at Punchestown - but it’s a novice chase (the Florida Pearl) and it appears to be at the mercy of Battleoverrdoyen (assuming he avoids mishaps).

There are also a couple of fair handicaps on the Punchestown card - and a half reasonable one at Cork.
However, nothing really grabs me in any of them - so I’ve focused my efforts on the UK (I don’t want to be spreading myself too thin :) ).

In truth, I’ve mainly focused my effort on Cheltenham (as you would expect) - and whilst the nature of the races means that betting opportunities are limited, I have managed to find a couple of tips.

Here’s the rationale for them - along with my thoughts on the other races on the card - and the 2 feature races at Fontwell.


Cheltenham

12:45

There may be 19 runners in this, but I’ll be a little surprised (actually, very surprised !), if the winner doesn’t come from the top 5 in the betting…
The trouble is, a short list of: Duc de Beauchene, McAlpine, Don’t Shout, Colditz Castle and Demon Fou doesn’t take us forward a great deal - unless you want to oppose Duc de Beauchene.
Part of me would like to do just that, as he’s definitely too short at 7/2, based on what he’s actually achieved.
The trouble is, in races like this, it’s less about what you’ve achieved - and more about what you could achieve - and I suspect he has plenty of untapped potential.
He looks to have been laid out for the race - and it would be a brave man who is prepared to oppose his connections (JP McManus, David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neil Jnr.) in a race of this nature.
The trouble is, for all I can’t oppose him - I can’t support him either, so that makes it a race to swerve.
Of the 4 other ‘possibles’, I like Mc Alpine best.
He’s the least exposed - and showed improved form last time. He’s also going to be ridden by an exceptional claimer in the shape of Darragh O’Keeffe.
In truth there are some very good young jockeys riding in the race - and I’ll be keeping as much of an eye on them, as I will on the horses.

1:15

From a betting perspective, this is the best race of the day - even if it is being run over the cross country course !
Furthermore, I’m quite keen the chances of Chic Name.
He’s only 7, which is quite young for a horse to be running in cross country races - though he was only 6, when he made his cross country debut !
That was in the 2018, at the festival - and he ran a huge race to finish sixth to Tiger Roll (the first time that horse won the race).
Chic Name finished 16 lengths behind Urgent de Gregain that day - but was meeting him at level weights.
He’s 18lb better off today - but more importantly, whereas Chic Name has now matured by 18 months, Urgent will be 12 next month, so is probably past his peak.
I actually find it quite strange that after such a good first run over the course, Chic Name hasn’t tackled it again, prior to today.
Maybe connections were hoping he would prosper in conventional chases - and to be fair, he’s not done badly.
He’s won twice since then - most recently at Newbury in March when he got the better of Joe Farrel.
He followed that up with an excellent eight in the Scottish National, clearly showing that all of his ability is in tact.
He made his seasonal debut this season, in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow - but went off far too quickly and was beaten entering the home straight.
However, I’m sure the purpose of that race was simply to get him straight for today.
If it’s done its job - and provided he negotiates the course without issue - then he should go very close this afternoon.
I was hoping to also have a saver on Kingswell Theatre, as I see him as by far the biggest danger.
However, I was after at least 5/1 - and that price hasn’t been available all morning.
If you do see it pre-race, then I think he is worth saving stakes on - at very least.

1:50

According to the odds, this is a 2 horse race between Al Dancer and Getaway Trump - but I don’t quite see it that way…
The ‘big 2’ met in a similar race at the October meeting - with Al Dancer coming out on top.
Getaway Trump is 3lb better off this afternoon - and whilst that shouldn’t be sufficient to overturn a 5 length defeat, I suspect he will come out in top in their private duel.
He looked the more likely winner turning in that day, until an apparent lack of fitness caught him out.
With the run under his belt, I think he will get the better of Al Dancer this afternoon.
The question is whether he can also get the better of the 2 other runners in the race: Rouge Vif and Put the Kettle on…
Rouge Vif comfortably beat Getaway Trump over hurdles at Kelso last season - and also won on his chasing debut at Market Rasen, last month.
I was sorely tempted to tip him today - but 2 things put me off.
Firstly, I’m not sure he will appreciate todays soft ground; and secondly, I’m fearful of the Irish challenger, Put the Kettle on.
She is a sound jumping mare, and her front running tactics, will test the fencing ability of her 3 rivals.
As with Rouge Vif, the big worry for her, are underfoot conditions. All of her form has been on relatively quick summer ground.
It’s a little frustrating that I can’t take a position on the race, because I do think the market leaders are vulnerable (and therefore under-priced).
However, they are more likely to cope with the ground than the 2 outsiders - and ultimately, that could be the deciding factor.
I guess one way to play it may be a back to lay in running on Put the Kettle on - because I could see her trading quite low, if she gets into a rhythm up front.
However, whether she’ll be able to make her way up a rain soaked Cheltenham hill, remains to be seen…

2:25

This race has a remarkably similar shape to the one in Ireland last Sunday, where I didn’t tip Ballyoisin !
For a start, it’s a small field, 2 mile conditions chase.
The first and second favourites (Defi du Seuil and Politolgue) both ran really well at last seasons Cheltenham festival (one winning; the other finishing second) - but are making their seasonal debuts this afternoon.
Neither one is likely to be 100% wound up, as they will have bigger targets in their sights.
By contrast, Saint Calvados will be 100% today, as he has already run this season - when successful in a decent handicap at the October meeting.
That race was run on heavy ground - and such conditions are imperative for Saint Calvados to show his best.
On official ratings, Politologue is the one to beat - particularly as he has a very good record fresh.
However I am more fearful of Defi du Seuil…
That said, 2 miles is a bare minimum for him, and todays trip could catch him out.
Whilst he demonstrated last time that he didn’t have to front run, I do expect Saint Calvados to lead today.
He’s quite happy doing so, and as non of the other 3 habitually front run, it should enable Gavin Sheehan to dictate the fractions.
If he can get it right, then I suspect he will prove a very difficult opponent for Politologue and Defi du Seuil to pass…

3:00

Whilst there was a slight temptation to tip in this, simply because it’s the main race of the day - I’ve got to be honest and say that I haven’t got a clue what’s going to win it !
More than that, I can’t even offer one that’s sure to run well - which makes me think that I shouldn’t spend too long previewing it…
The issue is that there are too many unknown quantities, approaching the race from a variety of different directions.
Trying to assess the race in a conventional fashion, just gives you a headache !
If forced off the fence, I’d take a small risk on Harambe.
He’s been targeted at the race by Alan King - who won it a couple of years back with Elgin.
The horse apparently had an issue during the week, and whilst that’s not ideal - I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be running if it hadn’t been resolved - and it almost certainly  means he is a bigger price than he should be ! (such is the power of the grapevine)
He has a progressive profile: handles soft ground - and should be fit, following a run at Chepstow.
At 20/1 he could be worth a small risk…
Of the others, then to an extent, you pay your money and make your choice !
I would be against Monsieur Lecoq and Benny Bridge, as both got hefty weight rises for wins in lesser races on their seasonal debuts: Dame de Compagnie would definitely be of interest - if it weren’t for the soft ground (she appears to favour good ground). The ground is also the worry with Humble Hero (though he would become interesting, if he is backed).
I’ll be surprised if Gumball lasts home: whilst Quoi de Neuf is impossible to quantify (but again, would be interesting if backed).
Torcello is another one that is very hard to quantify - but could have a chance.
Whilst Quel Destin is the final one worthy of a mention.
He has a lot of weight for a 4 year old - but deserves it. If there is a solid option in the race, then it is probably him…
On balance though, a race for watching…

3:30

This is a pretty uninspiring race.
Just the 5 runners - and little to go on, in terms of form.
Ecco is the one who appeals most - but he’s 2/1 favourite - and that certainly doesn’t appeal !
In truth, it looks like a race where just about any result is possible - so if I were to get involved, I’d just support one of the outsiders…
Eden du Houx, Scardura and Hang in There, are all 5/1 shots.
If one of them drifts a couple of points, then I’ll be tempted - otherwise, I’ll jut be watching…

4:00

The card does petter out a little, from a betting perspective - and there’s not much to consider getting involved with in the bumper that closes the card.
Time Flies By won the bumper at the October meeting - on his racecourse debut - and that race looked almost as strong as todays…
Certainly, he doesn't appear a bad bet at around even money - having already demonstrated he can handle the track and heavy ground.
The only issue is, whilst he sets a high standard, you don’t know what you are going to bump into, in these kind of races.
I’ll be a little surprised if there is anything better than him - but it’s not impossible…
At a price, I’m quite interested in Dusty’s Choice.
He won his only race so far - a bumper at Ayr - and whilst the form of that win doesn’t match the form of Time Flies By, he has plenty of potential.
He is owned by Paul and Claire Rooney; whilst his trainer, John Quinn is in excellent form.
Most interestingly of all however, he is ridden by Sean Bowen - and is the jockeys only mount at Cheltenham, across the 2 day meeting (a real waste of talent, if you ask me - though that’s by the by).
At 16/1, he could be worth a small play…



Fontwell

2:05

This is the first of a couple of races of interest, at Fontwell.
It’s a nice little handicap hurdle - and I did briefly toy with tipping Our Merlin in it.
He’s an old friend - and I’m sure he will run his race this afternoon.
Certainly he ran with promise on his seasonal debut behind Zanza, just 10 days ago - and I suspect he will have come on for that run.
He was dropped 2lb for it - and whilst that doesn’t make him spectacularly well handicapped, he should be capable of winning an average race, off his current mark.
The trouble is, this could be a strong contest.
Certainly, Colonel Custard and Zizaneur, have plenty of potential from their current marks (more than Our Merlin does).
Ofcourse having potential land fulfilling it, are 2 different things - but all the same…
It’s also possible to construct half cases for Ar Mest and Song for Someone.
In short, a price of 11/2 about Our Merlin, looks about right.
He may be able to win (if the others don’t improve) - but he’s more likely to be placed…

2:40

In the middle of last week, I spent quite a lot of time looking at the amateur riders handicap chase, which was due to open the card at Cheltenham on Friday.
I had narrowed that race down to 2: Petite Power and Captain Cattistock.
As it happened, Captain Cattistock wasn’t declared for that race - as he was evidently  being targeted at this one.
I find that quite interesting, as connections were prepared to forego a winning chance at Cheltenham, in favour of a race at Fontwell.
In fairness, there may not have been much difference in terms of prize money - but there would have been in terms of prestige !
Anyway, suffice to say I fancy Captain Cattistock in this (as presumably do his connections !)
He was a progressive novice last season - and his run at Wincanton last month , should have blown away the cobwebs.
Todays heavy ground should hold no terrors - and he is likely to relish the 3m3f trip.
Lorcan Williams claiming 3lb, is the icing on the cake.
The only real issue is a price of 5/2…
I can’t argue with it - but there is no margin in it - particularly with his big weight.
Non of the other runners can be completely dismissed - so whilst I make him the most likely winner, he can;t be a tip at that price.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Chel 1:15 Chic Name 1pt win 7/1
Chel 2:25 Saint Calvados 1pt win 4/1

Mentions

Chel 12:45 McAlpine (S )
Chel 1:50 Rouge Vif (C )
Chel 3:00 Harambe (O )
Chel 4:00 Dusty’s Choice (O )
Font 2:05 Our Merlin (O )
Font 2:40 Captain Cattistock (P )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

*Back-to lay IR

Chel 1:50 Put the Kettle On

*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race

Review of the day

It was nice to get back on the score sheet this afternoon - and, even though I say so myself, it was thoroughly deserved !

The write-up may have lacked its usual accuracy, in terms of spelling and punctuation (apologies for that, tipping late gives makes timings incredibly tight), but what it lacked in gloss, it more than made up for in substance.

Race after race, I was there - or thereabouts - so much so, it would have taken quite some effort to not tip a winner (something I hasten to add, I am more than capable of achieving !).

Thankfully, I got one of the border line calls right - and Happy Diva did the rest !

To be fair, she wasn’t a borderline call in terms of the chance I felt she had - just in terms of how much value was left in her compressed price.

As I mentioned this morning, she was 16/1 generally, all week (20/1 in places) - and that makes it quite hard to take 12/1.
I was pretty sure her price would drift - simply because of the strength of the race - but that’s only of limited use to me when I'm tipping.

It was a similar story with Ballyoisin last week - so at least I’ve learnt the lesson !

In terms of how the race panned out - then it went pretty much as I’d hoped !

I watched her all the way round - and she barely missed a beat.
One sound jump after another, as her rivals were busy bumping into fences and sprawling about !

She was always a very good bet to place - the question was whether she was a good bet to win…

I don’t know about that - but things fell right for her (in the case of Slate House, quite literally !) - and she was good enough and brave enough to take advantage.

It’s a while since I’ve got so much pleasure from a winner…

Earlier in the card, things hadn’t gone quite so well with Big River.

I wasn’t unduly concerned that he started near the front - and worked his way back through the field, as I expected him to stay on late.
However, when he nearly fell at the third last, it quickly became clear that it was game over.

He may have had ticks in just about every box - but he looked slow this afternoon, up against some speedier southern rivals.
Maybe I should have taken heed of my initial instincts !

The Butler Said was the third tip at Cheltenham - and he was backed in to a ridiculous 3/1 at the off.

He ran a fair race, but was a bit too far off the pace and couldn’t make up ground in the heavy conditions.

The race was won by Golan Fortune - who I had suggested might be one to keep an eye out for, at a big price.

I did actually half consider tipping him - but felt there was just a bit too much speculation (he had run only once in 2 years - and finished well beaten).

Ofcourse, he became far more attractive when the early 33/1 became 14/1 at the off. It’s funny how often that kind of market moves precedes a very big run…

The final tip at Cheltenham was Shanwalla.
As I said this morning, it was impossible to be confident about him winning - though I was confident about him out-runnig his odds.

And I was quite right on that score, as he ran a huge race to finish third.

I was a little surprised to see him held up (he’s made the running in all of his starts in Ireland) - and whilst I don’t think that cost him the race, it probably didn’t give him his best chance of winning.

In truth, he was probably just beaten by a couple of horses who are way ahead of their mark.
That’s always a danger in a race of that nature - but it doesn’t stop him from being a very good bet.

The only other tip on the day, was at Punchestown.

I decided to take on Klassical Dream in the Grade 1 Morgiana hurdle - despite him being sent off at odds of 2/5 !

And that was another good shout, as he look in need of the run and could only finish third.

Better than that, the 25/1 selection, Petite Mouchoir finished ahead of him - but unfortunately, only by one place.

He ran a really good race - but I just felt that Rachael Blackmore just didn’t quite make enough use of him.

He led to the last - but was then over taken.
However, he was fighting back on the run in…

They are fine lines - and I feel that we were just on the wrong side of one there…

As for the Mentions, then all 3 of them also ran well.

Walk Again looked like taking advantage of Faugheens sloppy jumping - but the ex-champion managed to stay on his feet and rallied after the last to win going away.
There is no substitute for class
Thatsmyseat was unplaced in the juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham - but she travelled really well and appeared to have a good chance, approaching the second last.
They probably don't have hills like the Cheltenham one, in France !
Whilst in the closing bumper, Lady in Hiding ran a remarkably similar race to the one she had run in a remarkably similar contest at the October meeting.
Turning in, she looked the one to beat - but then she got caught out by the pace change, before staying on late to take third.
When she is put over hurdles, she will want further than the minimum trip, that’s for sure…

All in all then, not a bad day.
I did tell you that the season would start to warm up this weekend ;)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 16th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Cheltenham, Wetherby and Uttoxeter in the UK - plus Punchestown in Ireland.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who was delighted when Cheltenham passed its inspection yesterday afternoon.

Rain has blighted the TVB season so far - but the abandonment of the prime pre-Christmas meeting, would have taken things to a whole new level !

In truth the extensive rainfall has already done damage - both with the loss of yesterdays fixture - and in the field sizes for today and tomorrow.

As I said last week, I do expect periods like this during the season - but they usually happen in January/February - not November !

Still, there is nothing that can be done about it: we’re just got to be grateful that racing is taking place - and some of that racing is high class.

With yesterdays Ballymore novice hurdle transferred to today, there are now 8 races on the Cheltenham card.

However, 4 of those are novice races - and betting opportunities in such races tend to be limited.
Thankfully, the other 4 races on the card are decent handicaps - and I’ve managed to find a tip in each of them.

In truth, that is just as well, as the supporting cards at Uttoxeter and Wetherby are a class below - and whilst I night have been able to find a tip or two, if pushed - I wouldn’t have been issuing them at 9:00 !

There are some classier races at Punchestown - including the grade 1 Morgiana hurdle - and I've also found a tip in that.
There is also the fencing debut of former champion hurdler, Faugheen - at the age of 11 !

Here’s the rationale for the days tips - along with my thoughts on the other races at Cheltenham - and the big races at Punchestown.


Cheltenham

12:05

Thyme Hill produced a rare feet, in winning a grade 2 race on his hurdling debut - and is a worthy favourite to follow up in this.
The very fact he made his hurdling debut in a graded contest, gives an indication of how highly connections rate him - and he didn’t let them down, with a battling display.
He has to carry a 5lb penalty for that win - but I would expect the experience of his first run over hurdles, to be worth at least that.
He looks very much the one to beat - even if a price of 6/4 leaves little margin for error.
Identifying his most dangerous opponent is not easy:
Dancing on my Own and Champagne Well are both second season novices, who have shown themselves capable of decent form.
They are relatively battle hardened - and that could prove valuable in the very testing conditions.
By contrast, Happygolucky, I K Brunel and L’Air du Vent are all relatively unexposed - but have plenty of scope for improvement.
My feeling is that Thyme Hill is the best horse in the race, by some margin - so if he handles the conditions, he should win.
I can't see the unexposed horses being bottomed to chase him home - so Dancing on my Own and Champagne Well seem the 2 most likely to fill the places.

12:40

This is an impossible race to call with any confidence.
Mick Pastor has the reputation - and the French form - to make him the one to beat - though it would appear he can also be headstrong.
If he races freely today, then he is unlikely to get home - so makes no appeal at a price of 5/4…
If I did get involved with the race, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on either Chocks Away or Thatsmyseat.
The former represents Nick Williams - and he has a habit of producing a useful juvenile, at this time of the year.
That said, the latter is possibly a touch more interesting.
Thatsmyseat is a filly, trained in France, by Emmanual Clayeaux.
She has already run 4 times - and shown she has some ability.
Precisely how much, is impossible to gauge - but that experience is likely to be valuable - as is the fact she receives weight from all of her rivals (nearly a stone, from Mick Pastor).
There is way too much guesswork involved to consider tipping her - but I wouldn’t put anyone off a tiny play at a big price.

1:15

Whilst he has a good deal in hand, based on official ratings, I’m not completely convinced by Wholestone in this…
He’s rated nearly a stone superior to all of his rivals - but I don’t see it quite that way.
For a start, his rating is based primarily on his runs over hurdles - and whilst he has done little wrong in 2 chase outings, I’m not sure he’s going to be as good over fences as he was over the smaller obstacles.
The trouble is, it’s not easy to find one to take him on with.
He finished in front of 3 of todays rivals, last time out, when he was narrowly beaten by Mulcahys Hill.
He did have a fitness advantage that day - but Minella Warrior, Aye Aye Charlie and Rockpoint, are still all going to have their work cut out, to reverse the form.
Consequently, his biggest danger may end up being Poker Play.
He won quite well on his chasing debut at Ffos Las - and loves heavy ground.
However, he is rated 13lb inferior to Wholestone - and there isn’t enough in a price of 4/1, to encourage me to take a risk on him.
Redzor is arguably the value play in the race (he’s 14/1 in places) - though it’s unusual for a Skelton horse to be unbacked, if it is fancied.
Ultimately, I just couldn't find a route into the race which I felt comfortable with - so it’s have to be one to watch…

1:50

Whilst there is a disappointing turn out for this in terms of numbers - it is still a fascinating race, in which a case can be constructed for just about all of the runners.
As a northern trained, seasonal debutante, I expected Big River to be the first one I put a line through - but instead, looking at his form revealed a compelling case..!
For a start, his record after a break, is ridiculous !
Just about all of his best performances have come on the back of an absence - he’s clearly a horse who is best when fresh.
He’s also a horse who is best on heavy ground - and in relatively small fields (can you see a theme developing ?!).
His best piece of form, was shown in last years Ultima handicap at the festival - when he finished like a train to take fourth place.
He runs off a mark one pound lower today - so is clearly well handicapped - and the extra 3 furlongs, is precisely what he needs.
In short, he has a tick in just abut every box - apart from the ‘not trained in the north’ one. However, I felt it a bit churlish to eliminate him simply because of geography (it’s not as if Lucinda Russell can’t trained big handicap chase winners - as the victory of One for Arthur in the 2018 Grand National, demonstrated).
One slight potential concern, was if there was no pace in the race (thereby reducing the stamina demands). However, the presence of habitual front runner, Achille, should ensure that’s not the case.
If the idea race was being framed for Big River, I think this would be it !
As I said at the start, a case of sorts can be made for all of his rivals - but equally, I can find flaws in all of their claims.
That said, I would expect them all to have their supporters - so 9/2 really should be a minimum price for Big River.
From a pure ‘value’ perspective, the Pop Rockstar is interesting at a double figure price - I don’t think he’s quite got the class of Big River though…

2:25

I spent a long time going through this race on Thursday (arguably too long !) - and came to the conclusion that it’s very open !
That’s borne out by the betting - with the bookies offering close to 7/1 the field…
There was some value available on Thursday - but the various industry tipsters soon spotted that and it was all eradicated yesterday evening.
Unfortunately, Happy Diva was one of the horse who came in for support - with a general 16/1 becoming a general 12/1.
The latter price is much closer to the mark - and assuming no ill luck befalls her (as happened last year). it’s hard to see her not running very well.
She is staggeringly consistent. In her 15 runs over fences, she has finished first, second or third on 13 occasions  - but been brought down and unseated on the other 2 !
You don’t get many handicappers how can match that.
She’s also relatively indifferent to thee ground - though crucially, will handle soft just fine.
I was very taken by her seasonal debut at Wetherby, last month - where she travelled like the best horse for most of the race.
I would expect her to come on for that run - and that should put her right in the mix.
In truth, it is just not a race you can be confident about - but Happy Diva is a rock solid selection, who I feel has as good a chance as anything, of coming home in front.
She also has a better chance than most of finishing in the frame - which is why I took the relatively unusual step of suggesting a ‘saver’ on her to be placed.
In terms of her rivals - then there are plenty I could see running well - but the market has them all positioned about right.
The other ones of potential interest to me, were Eamon an Cnoc and Belami des Pictons.
However, like Happy Diva they were both backed yesterday evening - and I fancy the mare a little more.

3:00

This is another race where it’s not hard to make a case for most of the runners - but hopefully that will mean the price of The Butcher Said is more likely to stand up !
He racked up a 4 timer in May and June - but any thoughts that he was just a summer horse, were dismissed when he ran at the Cheltenham October meeting.
As I’m sure many of you will recall, the ground on the Saturday of that meeting, was also desperate, but The Butcher Said handled it just fine - and ran Ramses de Taille to 4 lengths.
There were only 4 runners in the race - and Ramses is better known as a chaser - so there is a question mark over the form.
However, the form book says that The Butcher Said gave a 8lb to a horse rated 10lb higher - and was only beaten 4 lengths.
Literal interpretation suggests that The Butchers Said ran to a level a stone higher than his rating - yet his mark was not changed…
As I said, we do need to treat the run with some suspicion - although the performance of the third and fourth placed horses, do back it up.
Even ignoring it however, The Butchers Said still has a decent chance.
He is an improving young horse, who should be better for a recent comeback run - and who has shown he can handle very soft ground.
Of the others, then his stablemate, Smackwater Jack - and the Venetia trained Eminent Poet, are the 2 I fear most - with Golan Fortune, a potentially interesting outsider…

3:30

In this world of hyper sensitive, hyper accurate markets, it’s not often that I can find a true ‘value’ bet - but I think Shamwalla is one…
The main reason of course, is because he is trained by a relatively low key Irish handler - and up against number of the high profile stables, it’s almost inevitable that his price will be bigger than it should be.
In truth, it was the fact that Shamwalla is trained by Paul Gilligan, that drew me to him.
Those of you with good memories will recall that the trainer provided TVB with one of its best ever days, when he saddled Jadanli to victory in the 2013 Thystes chase. What a day !
The thing about trainers like him, is that they don’t run many horses at Cheltenham - so when they do, you need to examine them closely.
He’s actually got another runner in the second race on the card - but I suspect he’s just been brought over to keep Shamwalla company.
In terms of the case for the horse, then I feel it is quite strong.
He’s only run 3 times over hurdles - and on his debut, he ran The Big Galloper to a neck at Rosscommon, giving him 7lb.
The Big Galloper then went on to finish second at the Cheltenham October meeting, off a mark of 122.
Shamwalla runs off a mark of 130 today - which suggests he would have finished about second in that race…
That’s decent form - and puts him in with every chance in this race.
Since the Rosscommon run, Shamwalla has run twice - and twice finished third.
However, he was up against decent novices on both occasions and lost little in defeat.
Last time, he looked as if he was going to win - but didn’t quite get home.
He drops 2 furlongs in trip today, which I think is a good move.
Shamwalla has front run in all of his previous races - and hopefully he will do the same again today.
He is ridden by the trainees son, Liam - and he looks good value for his 7lb claim.
Again, its impossible to be confident in a race like this, where most of the runners are unknown quantifies.
However, I am very confident that Shamwalla was value at 16/1 - and, as we all know, if you keep finding value, then long term, you’ll do just fine…

4:00

The card closes with a mares bumper - and there is too much guesswork required, to consider getting seriously involved.
If forced off the fence, then I would side with Lady in Hiding.
She ran well to finish third in a similar race at the October meeting. I would expectt her to improve for that run, and if she does, she is likely to go close again.
Whether she will be good enough to win, will depend on the quality of her mainly unexposed rivals…


Punchestown

12:50

The chasing debut of Faugheen will undoubtedly be one of the major draws on the Punchestown card.
He’s now 11 - and well past his peak - but he still may have sufficient class to win.
Obviously the big worry, is how he will take to the fences - and I just hope connections don’t rue asking him, so late in his career.
Whilst his presence stops this from being a betting race, I will still be very interested to see Walk Away tackle a fence.
He caught my eye at Aintree last season, when he competed in a grade 1 novice hurdle, behind Champ.
He looked the sort who would improve massively for a fence - and if Faugheen does come up short todays, I would look no further for the race winner.

1:25

This is an intriguing little race - but it’s hard to see an angle into it.
Notebook and Moon over Germany have very different profiles - but both are very useful.
Moon over Germany is the far more exposed of the pair - he won the Red Rum handicap chase at last seasons Aintree National meeting.
By contrast Notebook has only run once over fences - when defeating Ecalie de Beaufeu over todays course and distance, last month.
I suspect that one of them will win todays race - but the market agrees, and as I can’t find a particular reason for favouring one of them it has to be a watching race.

2:00

There are only 5 runners in this - and the first 3 in the market are trained by Willie Mullins.
They include the current Champion hurdle favourite, Klassical Dream, who has his first run in open company.
There is no doubt he looked very good as a novice - and there is every chance that he will progress into a worthy Champion hurdle candidate - but if he;s going to be vulnerable, it’s most likely to be today…
The most obvious ones to take him on with, are his stablemates: however, both of them are also making their seasonal debuts.
Saldier has seen the track for over 12 months, since he took a fall at the final hurdle, when putting it up to Espoir Dallen; whilst Sharjan also hit the deck on his most recent run, in the Champion hurdle back in March…
In short, both have question marks over them.
Instead, I would rather take small risk on Petit Mouchoir.
Formerly a top class hurdler, he disappointed a little over fences - but showed signs of a revival back over hurdles last season.
He finished fourth to Buveur Dair in the Irish Champion hurdle in May - beaten just 4 lengths, and on that form, could go very close today.
He’s also had a run this season - and whilst ultimately well beaten, he ran well until tiring in the last half mile.
I would expect that run to have brought him on significantly - and if Rachael Blackmore can get the fractions right, I think his better fancied opponents could find him tough to pass this afternoon.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.






Tips

Chel 1:50 Big River 1pt win 9/2
Chel 2:25 Happy Diva *0.75pt win/ 0.25pt place 12/1
Chel 3:00 The Butcher Said 1pt win 11/2
Chel 3:30 Shanwalla 0.75pt win 16/1
Punch 2:00 Petite Mouchoir 0.5pt win 25/1

Mentions

Chel 12:40 Thatsmyseat (S )
Chel 4:00 Lady in Hiding (S )
Punch 12:50 Walk Again (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions