Daily write-up - Nov 30th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Newcastle and Bangor in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s day 2 of the winter carnival at Newbury - Hennessey day (sic Ladbroke Trophy day); whilst in Ireland, it is day 1 of the winter festival at Fairyhouse.

Newbury host another excellent card - and better than that, having raced there yesterday - and with no overnight rain - we’ve got a good idea of how the ground will be riding (how novel is that !).

By contrast, there is little to get excited about at Fairyhouse.
The feature race on the card has attracted just the 6 runners - and makes no appeal as a betting medium.
Things will be much better there tomorrow - so I’ll put the meeting on hold until then.

Elsewhere, Newcastle has survived an early inspection - and the ‘Fighting Fifth’ is the feature.

There are no ‘big race’ pretensions at Bangor - though it’s an interesting enough card.

In terms of tips, then I’ve struggled to get us on some of the ones I fancy today...

Most of that is simply down to prices: the prices that I was after weren’t there early this morning - and they still weren’t there later !
With so many tipsters issuing their tips the evening before, it becomes hard, because the bookmakers are extremely defensive.

There is a distinct possibility that some of the horses I like will drift to an acceptable price close to the off (that could easily be the case with Downtown Getaway and Magic Saint) - but that’s no good to me from a tipping perspective.

Anyway, I’ve expressed my views in the write-up - and you can all take whatever action you deem appropriate !

Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 5 tips in 3 races - but before I get on to the rationale for them - just a quick word on the ‘Naps competition’ which will get under way in the forum tomorrow…

As regular readers will know, the TVB December Naps competition is one of the high-lights of the TVB season !

As the name suggests, it is a Naps competition, that runs during December (reminds me of the all day boat party, from the Inbetweeners :) )

Simply, you just have to submit a Nap a day (via the thread on the forum) during December - and whoever has the biggest profit at the end of the month, scoops £100 !
Better than that, if your Naps end the month in profit - then you get a free £10 bet on a horse of your choice, on New years day.
It’s incredibly simple - and best of all, free to enter (so there is no excuse for not doing so !).

Historically, the competition has been run by Dave - but he’s busy sunning himself in Mexico at the moment (!), so Francis has generously offered to step in and pick up the mantle.

If you are interested in playing (and why wouldn’t you be ?!) - all of the details can be found on the following thread in the forum: http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/December-Naps-Competition-f18113.html


Right - on to the rational for the tips - and my thoughts on the days other big races…


Newbury

1:15

I really do sometimes wish that I could tip the night before !
Last night, I narrowed this race down to 3 - and at the prices available then, would have been quite happy to support any of the 3.
The 3 in question are Westend Story, Sametegal and Molineaux.
I fancy Molineaux least - but at last nights 14/1, he would have been worth half a point. However, at this mornings 7/1, there is minimal appeal.
I struggle a little more, to choose between the other 2.
They have very different profiles - and it’s quite easy to make a case for them both.
Sametegal hasn’t run for nearly 2 years - but has a great record fresh and his last win (over todays course), was off a mark 6lb higher than he races off today.
Bearing in mind how fragile he is, I’ m pretty sure Paul Nichols will have him spot on today - and he is just about worth a play, at 13/2.
Westend Story is a younger horse - with more potential.
He’s only run twice over fences - but his debut fourth at Exeter last season, was in a ridiculously strong race.
He clearly needed his seasonal debut last month - and is potentially thrown in off a mark of 134.
11/2 is a fair price for him - even in a 17 runner race.
The only other one worth a mention, is Tiquer.
He’s incredibly fragile - but very talented. He needs soft ground - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pulled out if connections consider it too quick.
If he does run, then he could be worth a tiny play, just in case…

1:50

I’m pretty keen on Downtown Getaway in this - but I just can’t tip him at 7/2.
He’s very unexposed (only 3 runs over hurdles) and has the potential to be way better than his current mark of 131.
In fact, based simply on the form he showed in a couple of novice hurdles last season, he could easily be rated 10lb higher.
More than that, Nicky Henderson threw him into grade 1 company on his final start last season, which gives an indication of how highly he is rated.
He was sent off at just 8/1 that day - but ran a relatively disappointing race.
I’ve no issue forgiving him that run - and it really wouldn’t surprise me, if he bolted up this afternoon.
The only thing is, his jumping was a bit scratchy last season - and that’s not what you want in a 17 runner handicap.
Also, he is making his seasonal debut - and I’ve no idea what the plans are for the rest of the season (this could be just to blow away the cobwebs before switching his attention to chasing).
If he’s well supported close to the off (and it’s not impossible that he could go off at close to 2/1 !), then I’ll be very surprised if he’s beaten.
It’s also not impossible that he’ll drift and win (because he could just be too well handicapped).
In terms of supporting him, then it all comes down to the price you can get (and the proximity to the off).
I would have tipped him at 9/2 this morning - and would have considered 4/1 (though probably resisted).
In terms of the others, then Mr Pumblechook and Star of Lanka are the 2 who appeal most.
That said, I can’t make anywhere near as strong a case for them, as I can for Downtown Getaway !

2:25

I’m struggling a bit with this race, because instinctively, I want to oppose most of the runners !
Elusive Bella and Epatante head the market - and they are both unexposed mares, trained by Nicky Henderson.
It’s not easy to get a handle on either of them - and I suspect the market will advise on their chances, close to the off…
Elvis Mail is next in the betting - and whilst he looked really impressive last time at Ayr, it generally pays for oppose northern trained runners at the big southern tracks.
Crooks Peak is quite interesting - but has been very well backed.
He was 12/1 last night - but is half that price now.
There was almost certainly value in the early price - but I think that has now gone.
Scarelt Dragon is the one I got closest to tipping.
He was an impressive winner at Market Rasen last time - but was raised a harsh looking 9lb for that win.
That means he has top weight in this race.
7/1 is probably a fair price - but against a number of tricky opponents, I can’t quite bring myself to tip him.

3:00

The unexpectedly quick ground (relatively speaking), has seen the market for this race, turned on its head…
The likes of OK Corral, De Rasher Counter, Mister Malarky, Elegant Escape, Robinsfirth and The Conditional, are all drifting in the betting, because of their preference for soft ground.
West Approach doesn’t have a marked ground preference - but I’d prefer it not too soft, if only because it reduces the chance of some of his main opponents !
He’s a horse who has shown high class form over hurdles - but not managed to replicate that over fences.
In fact, he was only fifth in this race last year - when he ran off a mark 4lb lower !
However, it does appear as if the penny has dropped with him jumping-wise this year - or maybe Robbie Power has found the right slot !
He’s looked a much improved fencer on his 2 runs - both at Cheltenham - finishing second on the first and then winning comfortably on his most recent outing.
The form of neither race is anything special - but it’s more the fact that if he has cracked jumping a fence, there could be lots of latent potential.
Certainly his 2 length second to the now 169 rated Paisley Park in last years Long Walk hurdle, suggest that he could be thrown in off mark of 146.
To an extent, it’s a case of you pay your money and make your choice.
It can be argued that he’s incredibly well handicapped - or it can be argued that he is not well handicapped at all !
I just think that at around 8/1, it’s worth chancing that it’s the former…
At a massive price, I think it is also worth taking a very small risk on Walt.
He’s a quirky horse - but he won last years Racing Post chase (as was) - and is handicapped to comfortably beat De Rasher Counter, based on their meeting at Newbury in December.
He has a marked preference for decent ground - and simply, shouldn’t be a 66/1 shot…

3:40

I’m struggling to see beyond Magic Saint in this - but I can’t quite bring myself to take 3/1 about him.
To be fair, I think it can be argued that it’s a reasonable price in a relatively weak race - however, he’s disappointed me previously when I really fancied him, so it may be a case of once bitten, twice wary !
In terms of the case for him - then a fair bit of it is around potential.
He’s got some decent form - but it’s more that he’s still only 5 and therefore has plenty of potential upside.
He was sent off favourite for last seasons Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival (when I tipped him !) - but he disappointed that day.
In fact, based on that run, he shouldn’t beat Bun Doran today.
He’s not done much in his 3 subsequent runs, either - though I did think he travelled notably well in the BetVictor gold cup, behind Happy Diva.
If that run has brought him on, then I would expect him to go very close today.
Part of the reason for fancying him is the lack of credible opponents.
Bun Doran clearly has a chance: as does Whatswrongwithyou. However, they are second and third favourites - so have hardly been missed !
If there is to be a shock, then Theo is the one I would think most likely to cause it.
He’s possibly worth a small play, at around 20/1.


Newcastle

2:05

I think it goes without saying, that Buveur Dair should win this…
He’s rated almost a stone superior to his closest rival, Silver Streak - and that one has a marked preference for decent ground (which he is definitely not going to get !).
As a consequence, Lady Buttons is likely to prove Buveur Dair biggest danger - but assuming he’s fully wound up - and nothing untoward happens, she shouldn’t really test him.
It’s a similar case to Paisley Park, yesterday: I don’t think Buveur Dair is a certainty - and I can imagine a few scenarios whereby he gets beaten.
However, in all probability, his superior class will see him home in front.
Not really a betting race then…

3:20

It looks to me as if Captain Chaos has been targeted at this race, by Dan Skelton.
He finished runner up in the corresponding race 12 months ago, beaten 3 lengths by Lake View Lad.
Captain Chaos is 16lb better off in the weights today - and with the benefit of a couple of runs this season, really should reverse the form.
In fairness, his 2 runs this season have been poor. However it was a similar story coming in to the race 12 months ago - and the refitting of headgear today (cheek pieces for the first time), strongly suggest that those runs were simply to get him fit - and get a few pounds off his mark.
He’s the only runner Dan Skelton sends to Newcastle today - and I’ll be a bit disappointed if he leaves empty handed.
That said, there are a few potential dangers in todays contest - though all of them come with a question mark of some kind…
Jonniesofa was very impressive when winning last time - but that was on the back of a huge absence - and there must be a chance he will ‘bounce’ today (even ignoring the much stronger opposition).
Top Ville Ben could be dangerous - but it’s impossible to know whether he is well handicapped - and he has shown all his best form at Wetherby (which is admittedly, quite a similar course to Newcastle).
Captain Redbeard should go well - but he’s pretty exposed and not getting any younger.
As a consequence, Kilfilum Cross looks the main danger.
But he’s not completely proven in the ground - and is plenty short enough in the betting (3/1).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Newb 1:15 Sametegal 0.5pt win 13/2
Newb 1:15 Westend Story 1pt win 11/2
Newb 3:00 West Approach 0.5pt win 8/1
Newb 3:00 Walt 0.25pt EW 66/1
Newc 3:20 Captain Chaos 1pt win 13/2

Mentions 

Newb 1:50 Downtown Getaway (P )
Newb 2:25 Scarlet Dragon (O )
Newb 3:40 Magic Saint (P ) 

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions