Daily write-up - Nov 17th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Cheltenham and Fontwell in the UK - and Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

It’s rare for the best racing on a Sunday, to take place on the east side of the Irish sea - but it does today.

Obviously, that’s mainly because its the second (and final) day of the Open meeting at Cheltenham - though Fontwell also provides a couple of decent contests…

In fairness, it’s not that the racing in Ireland is poor - just that the overall standard of the racing, has improved this weekend.

There is actually a Grade 2 event taking place at Punchestown - but it’s a novice chase (the Florida Pearl) and it appears to be at the mercy of Battleoverrdoyen (assuming he avoids mishaps).

There are also a couple of fair handicaps on the Punchestown card - and a half reasonable one at Cork.
However, nothing really grabs me in any of them - so I’ve focused my efforts on the UK (I don’t want to be spreading myself too thin :) ).

In truth, I’ve mainly focused my effort on Cheltenham (as you would expect) - and whilst the nature of the races means that betting opportunities are limited, I have managed to find a couple of tips.

Here’s the rationale for them - along with my thoughts on the other races on the card - and the 2 feature races at Fontwell.


Cheltenham

12:45

There may be 19 runners in this, but I’ll be a little surprised (actually, very surprised !), if the winner doesn’t come from the top 5 in the betting…
The trouble is, a short list of: Duc de Beauchene, McAlpine, Don’t Shout, Colditz Castle and Demon Fou doesn’t take us forward a great deal - unless you want to oppose Duc de Beauchene.
Part of me would like to do just that, as he’s definitely too short at 7/2, based on what he’s actually achieved.
The trouble is, in races like this, it’s less about what you’ve achieved - and more about what you could achieve - and I suspect he has plenty of untapped potential.
He looks to have been laid out for the race - and it would be a brave man who is prepared to oppose his connections (JP McManus, David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neil Jnr.) in a race of this nature.
The trouble is, for all I can’t oppose him - I can’t support him either, so that makes it a race to swerve.
Of the 4 other ‘possibles’, I like Mc Alpine best.
He’s the least exposed - and showed improved form last time. He’s also going to be ridden by an exceptional claimer in the shape of Darragh O’Keeffe.
In truth there are some very good young jockeys riding in the race - and I’ll be keeping as much of an eye on them, as I will on the horses.

1:15

From a betting perspective, this is the best race of the day - even if it is being run over the cross country course !
Furthermore, I’m quite keen the chances of Chic Name.
He’s only 7, which is quite young for a horse to be running in cross country races - though he was only 6, when he made his cross country debut !
That was in the 2018, at the festival - and he ran a huge race to finish sixth to Tiger Roll (the first time that horse won the race).
Chic Name finished 16 lengths behind Urgent de Gregain that day - but was meeting him at level weights.
He’s 18lb better off today - but more importantly, whereas Chic Name has now matured by 18 months, Urgent will be 12 next month, so is probably past his peak.
I actually find it quite strange that after such a good first run over the course, Chic Name hasn’t tackled it again, prior to today.
Maybe connections were hoping he would prosper in conventional chases - and to be fair, he’s not done badly.
He’s won twice since then - most recently at Newbury in March when he got the better of Joe Farrel.
He followed that up with an excellent eight in the Scottish National, clearly showing that all of his ability is in tact.
He made his seasonal debut this season, in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow - but went off far too quickly and was beaten entering the home straight.
However, I’m sure the purpose of that race was simply to get him straight for today.
If it’s done its job - and provided he negotiates the course without issue - then he should go very close this afternoon.
I was hoping to also have a saver on Kingswell Theatre, as I see him as by far the biggest danger.
However, I was after at least 5/1 - and that price hasn’t been available all morning.
If you do see it pre-race, then I think he is worth saving stakes on - at very least.

1:50

According to the odds, this is a 2 horse race between Al Dancer and Getaway Trump - but I don’t quite see it that way…
The ‘big 2’ met in a similar race at the October meeting - with Al Dancer coming out on top.
Getaway Trump is 3lb better off this afternoon - and whilst that shouldn’t be sufficient to overturn a 5 length defeat, I suspect he will come out in top in their private duel.
He looked the more likely winner turning in that day, until an apparent lack of fitness caught him out.
With the run under his belt, I think he will get the better of Al Dancer this afternoon.
The question is whether he can also get the better of the 2 other runners in the race: Rouge Vif and Put the Kettle on…
Rouge Vif comfortably beat Getaway Trump over hurdles at Kelso last season - and also won on his chasing debut at Market Rasen, last month.
I was sorely tempted to tip him today - but 2 things put me off.
Firstly, I’m not sure he will appreciate todays soft ground; and secondly, I’m fearful of the Irish challenger, Put the Kettle on.
She is a sound jumping mare, and her front running tactics, will test the fencing ability of her 3 rivals.
As with Rouge Vif, the big worry for her, are underfoot conditions. All of her form has been on relatively quick summer ground.
It’s a little frustrating that I can’t take a position on the race, because I do think the market leaders are vulnerable (and therefore under-priced).
However, they are more likely to cope with the ground than the 2 outsiders - and ultimately, that could be the deciding factor.
I guess one way to play it may be a back to lay in running on Put the Kettle on - because I could see her trading quite low, if she gets into a rhythm up front.
However, whether she’ll be able to make her way up a rain soaked Cheltenham hill, remains to be seen…

2:25

This race has a remarkably similar shape to the one in Ireland last Sunday, where I didn’t tip Ballyoisin !
For a start, it’s a small field, 2 mile conditions chase.
The first and second favourites (Defi du Seuil and Politolgue) both ran really well at last seasons Cheltenham festival (one winning; the other finishing second) - but are making their seasonal debuts this afternoon.
Neither one is likely to be 100% wound up, as they will have bigger targets in their sights.
By contrast, Saint Calvados will be 100% today, as he has already run this season - when successful in a decent handicap at the October meeting.
That race was run on heavy ground - and such conditions are imperative for Saint Calvados to show his best.
On official ratings, Politologue is the one to beat - particularly as he has a very good record fresh.
However I am more fearful of Defi du Seuil…
That said, 2 miles is a bare minimum for him, and todays trip could catch him out.
Whilst he demonstrated last time that he didn’t have to front run, I do expect Saint Calvados to lead today.
He’s quite happy doing so, and as non of the other 3 habitually front run, it should enable Gavin Sheehan to dictate the fractions.
If he can get it right, then I suspect he will prove a very difficult opponent for Politologue and Defi du Seuil to pass…

3:00

Whilst there was a slight temptation to tip in this, simply because it’s the main race of the day - I’ve got to be honest and say that I haven’t got a clue what’s going to win it !
More than that, I can’t even offer one that’s sure to run well - which makes me think that I shouldn’t spend too long previewing it…
The issue is that there are too many unknown quantities, approaching the race from a variety of different directions.
Trying to assess the race in a conventional fashion, just gives you a headache !
If forced off the fence, I’d take a small risk on Harambe.
He’s been targeted at the race by Alan King - who won it a couple of years back with Elgin.
The horse apparently had an issue during the week, and whilst that’s not ideal - I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be running if it hadn’t been resolved - and it almost certainly  means he is a bigger price than he should be ! (such is the power of the grapevine)
He has a progressive profile: handles soft ground - and should be fit, following a run at Chepstow.
At 20/1 he could be worth a small risk…
Of the others, then to an extent, you pay your money and make your choice !
I would be against Monsieur Lecoq and Benny Bridge, as both got hefty weight rises for wins in lesser races on their seasonal debuts: Dame de Compagnie would definitely be of interest - if it weren’t for the soft ground (she appears to favour good ground). The ground is also the worry with Humble Hero (though he would become interesting, if he is backed).
I’ll be surprised if Gumball lasts home: whilst Quoi de Neuf is impossible to quantify (but again, would be interesting if backed).
Torcello is another one that is very hard to quantify - but could have a chance.
Whilst Quel Destin is the final one worthy of a mention.
He has a lot of weight for a 4 year old - but deserves it. If there is a solid option in the race, then it is probably him…
On balance though, a race for watching…

3:30

This is a pretty uninspiring race.
Just the 5 runners - and little to go on, in terms of form.
Ecco is the one who appeals most - but he’s 2/1 favourite - and that certainly doesn’t appeal !
In truth, it looks like a race where just about any result is possible - so if I were to get involved, I’d just support one of the outsiders…
Eden du Houx, Scardura and Hang in There, are all 5/1 shots.
If one of them drifts a couple of points, then I’ll be tempted - otherwise, I’ll jut be watching…

4:00

The card does petter out a little, from a betting perspective - and there’s not much to consider getting involved with in the bumper that closes the card.
Time Flies By won the bumper at the October meeting - on his racecourse debut - and that race looked almost as strong as todays…
Certainly, he doesn't appear a bad bet at around even money - having already demonstrated he can handle the track and heavy ground.
The only issue is, whilst he sets a high standard, you don’t know what you are going to bump into, in these kind of races.
I’ll be a little surprised if there is anything better than him - but it’s not impossible…
At a price, I’m quite interested in Dusty’s Choice.
He won his only race so far - a bumper at Ayr - and whilst the form of that win doesn’t match the form of Time Flies By, he has plenty of potential.
He is owned by Paul and Claire Rooney; whilst his trainer, John Quinn is in excellent form.
Most interestingly of all however, he is ridden by Sean Bowen - and is the jockeys only mount at Cheltenham, across the 2 day meeting (a real waste of talent, if you ask me - though that’s by the by).
At 16/1, he could be worth a small play…



Fontwell

2:05

This is the first of a couple of races of interest, at Fontwell.
It’s a nice little handicap hurdle - and I did briefly toy with tipping Our Merlin in it.
He’s an old friend - and I’m sure he will run his race this afternoon.
Certainly he ran with promise on his seasonal debut behind Zanza, just 10 days ago - and I suspect he will have come on for that run.
He was dropped 2lb for it - and whilst that doesn’t make him spectacularly well handicapped, he should be capable of winning an average race, off his current mark.
The trouble is, this could be a strong contest.
Certainly, Colonel Custard and Zizaneur, have plenty of potential from their current marks (more than Our Merlin does).
Ofcourse having potential land fulfilling it, are 2 different things - but all the same…
It’s also possible to construct half cases for Ar Mest and Song for Someone.
In short, a price of 11/2 about Our Merlin, looks about right.
He may be able to win (if the others don’t improve) - but he’s more likely to be placed…

2:40

In the middle of last week, I spent quite a lot of time looking at the amateur riders handicap chase, which was due to open the card at Cheltenham on Friday.
I had narrowed that race down to 2: Petite Power and Captain Cattistock.
As it happened, Captain Cattistock wasn’t declared for that race - as he was evidently  being targeted at this one.
I find that quite interesting, as connections were prepared to forego a winning chance at Cheltenham, in favour of a race at Fontwell.
In fairness, there may not have been much difference in terms of prize money - but there would have been in terms of prestige !
Anyway, suffice to say I fancy Captain Cattistock in this (as presumably do his connections !)
He was a progressive novice last season - and his run at Wincanton last month , should have blown away the cobwebs.
Todays heavy ground should hold no terrors - and he is likely to relish the 3m3f trip.
Lorcan Williams claiming 3lb, is the icing on the cake.
The only real issue is a price of 5/2…
I can’t argue with it - but there is no margin in it - particularly with his big weight.
Non of the other runners can be completely dismissed - so whilst I make him the most likely winner, he can;t be a tip at that price.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Chel 1:15 Chic Name 1pt win 7/1
Chel 2:25 Saint Calvados 1pt win 4/1

Mentions

Chel 12:45 McAlpine (S )
Chel 1:50 Rouge Vif (C )
Chel 3:00 Harambe (O )
Chel 4:00 Dusty’s Choice (O )
Font 2:05 Our Merlin (O )
Font 2:40 Captain Cattistock (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

*Back-to lay IR
Chel 1:50 Put the Kettle On

*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race