There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Carlisle and Huntingdon in the UK - plus Cork in Ireland.
Having the TVB season run over the same period every year, means that I have got a very good feel for the racing schedule.
I know from past seasons, that this Sunday can be a quiet one - and that’s certainly the case today.
The biggest race of the day, is the Cork National - however I can’t find anything suitable to tip in it.
The main race at Carlisle, is the Colin Parker Memorial - but it has attracted just 4 runners.
Aside from that, the best races are novice chases (one at each of the meetings) - but again, they don't really lend themselves to tips.
As a consequence, it’s a tip free day - but you still have the previews to work with - and some Mentions (and a Back-to lay IR !), to hopefully point you in the right direction.
Here are my thoughts on the afternoons action…
Cork
2:45
This is a fascinating race - but almost unfathomable !
The main fascination, is that it’s a novice chase - yet the winner of an open handicap at the Cheltenham festival is running in it.
That’s a very unusual situation.
The horse in question is Any Second Now, and he won last seasons Kim Muir.
He’s now rated 150 - which is a high rating for a race of this nature - and he’s also only 7 years old.
Faced with those fact, you'd expect him to be a short priced favourite - yet he opened at 7/1, yesterday evening.
He’s been backed in to 4/1 this morning - and it will be interesting to see if the support continues.
There are 2 main issues with him: firstly, this is his seasonal debut; and secondly todays trip is on the short side.
It does very much look as if it’s a pipe-opener, to ready him for targets later in the season - but I suspect the market will advise…
Even ignoring him, it is still an interesting race.
Ex Patriot is another very experienced - and talented ‘novice’ (though not quite at Any Second Nows level: whilst Sayo and Dallas de Pictons are inexperienced - potentially very talented novices (of the kind you normally see in a race like this).
Trying to choose between the 4, is nearly impossible.
I suspect the market will sort them out, before the off - but unfortunately we don’t know what conclusions it will reach ! (and by the time we do, the ‘value’ will be gone).
If forced at this point in time, I’d side with Dallas de Pictons.
He won well enough on his chasing debut - and has the potential to be a graded novice (he will probably need to be, if he is to win this !).
3:20
I was hopeful that I might find something in this race, to try and follow up on Out Sams victory as a tip, last season.
He contests the race again - and from a mark just 4lb higher, he has a decent chance of repeating his success (in theory, at least).
However, he doesn’t grab me in the same way, this time.
He’s a year older - and more exposed.
Gordon Elliott has probably improved him as much as he can - I’m inclined to look elsewhere…
The trouble is, looking elsewhere leads me to the first and second favourites: Young Paddymc and Pont Avon.
Both are novices - and are unproven over todays marathon trip.
I don’t think it will be an issue for Pont Avon - as he looks a real stayer.
I’m not quite so sure about Young Paddymc - as he is a more exuberant racer (and is also making his seasonal debut).
I suspect Young Paddymc will make a decent pre-race back - to lay in-running.
But if I were to tip in the race, it would be Pont Avon.
The question in my mind is whether 6/1 is an acceptable price - about a horse with plenty to prove (in terms of jumping and stamina), taking on 16 rivals.
I came to the conclusion, that it wasn’t - I’d want at least 8/1.
If he reaches that price pre-race, I wouldn't put anyone off having a small play - but officially speaking, this is a watching race.
Carlisle
1:20
This is another decent novice handicap chase - not dissimilar to the one at Ascot yesterday, in which On the Slopes ran second.
And like the Ascot race, it’s not easy to solve…
Many of the runners have plenty of potential - and again, the market is likely to be the best indicator of the result.
That’s because most of the runners are making their seasonal debut - and not only will connection's know how fit they are, they will also know how much they have improved over the summer.
We have to guess on both scores - and that greatly lessens the appeal of getting involved.
Two for Gold is an understandable favourite - and if he stays strong in the market, I think he will take the beating.
That said, at bigger prices, Muratello and Lygon Rock have some attraction.
Both were fair hurdlers last season - and look likely to improve for the switch to fences.
Educated guesswork tells me they are not bad bets at 8/1 and 11/1 respectively - but tipping on the back of educated guesswork, doesn’t feel like the soundest of strategies !
2:30
The big race at Carlisle has only drawn 4 runners - and one of them is heavily odds on.
That makes it a bit of a non starter from a betting perspective - though it should be an interesting watch…
Lostintranslation, was close to the top of the novice tree last season - and assuming he is sufficiently fit this afternoon, he will take the beating.
He ran well enough on his seasonal debut 12 months ago - and Colin Tizzard is making suitably positive noises.
He is the most likely race winner…
Kildisart is second favourite - and in theory, rated close enough to Lostintranslation to give him a race.
However, Nicky Henderson sounds less positive about his chance - and I suspect he will benefit from the run.
Count Meribel is likely to be fit and going for it - but he is rated over a stone inferior to the fav.
He does get a 6lb weight allowance - but it shouldn't really be sufficient.
I could see him running well - but Lostintranslation should have his measure.
My Old Gold is the outsider of the party - and she looks likely to be outclassed.
In summary, Lostintranslation should win - with possibly Count Meribel following him home.
Huntingdon
1:45
This is a surprisingly good novice chase (helped no doubt, by the fact that the ground at Huntingdon, is better than can currently be found at most other courses in the country)
In fact, I spent a little time, considering whether to tip in it…
The horse I am most interested in, is Cotswold Way - and at double figures, I think he is too big a price.
He’s making his seasonal debut - and running for the first time over fences - but neither of those things put me off him.
He won on his seasonal debut at Huntingdon last year - and the 2m4f trip on decent ground, is perfect for him.
On hurdle ratings, he is just about the best horse in the race - and yet he can be backed a 11/1.
It almost doesn’t make sense - until you see the jockey bookings…
Richard Johnson is stable jockey for Philip Hobbs (the trainer of Cotswold Way) - yet he is riding Whatmore in the race for Henry Daly.
There is no issue with regard to riding weights - so you have to read it as a vote of no confidence in the horse.
Certainly that is how the market has read it - and with some force !.
In fairness, Michael Nolan has ridden the horse numerous times before - including for 3 wins.
Dickie has only ridden it twice - and hasn’t been successful.
It’s a tough one: part of me think, ignore the jockey - and go with the form book: but another part of me thinks - Dickie doesn’t give up winners lightly !
I guess the fact he is riding Whatmore should be viewed as a positive for that one (particularly as it’s his only ride of the day).
He a quirky sort - and Dickie has won 3 times on him (from 5 goes).
I certainly wouldn’t rule him out - and ultimately, that’s the issue.
Not only could I not rule out Whatmore, I couldn’t rule out quite a few others (with Pym and Third Wind, top of the list).
Cotswold Way is arguably a ‘value’ bet - but it’ll certainly be no easy task for him to to win.
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.
TVB.
Mentions
Cork 2:45 Dallas du Pictons (O )
Cork 3:20 Pont Aven (P )
Carl 1:20 Muratello & Lygon Rock (S )
Hunt 1:45 Cotswold Way (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
*Back-to lay IR
Cork 3:20 Young Paddymc
*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race
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