It’s strange to think that this is only the second weekend of the season: with the ground riding close to heavy - and lots of small fields, it feels more like January/February time.
They are never easy months to deal with - but at least you tend to have guaranteed fitness.
We’ve currently got borderline unraceable conditions - and a number of unfit horses.
That’s quite a combination !
The issue is, it makes finding bets very hard...
In terms of todays ‘big’ races, then there are 3 graded events at Navan, plus a listed chase at Sandown.
Between them, they have attracted a total of just 20 runners - only half of which have a realistic chance of winning.
That generally doesn’t make for great betting races.
The veterans chase at Sandown is the one big race on the day with a decent size field - however, with question marks over the ground and the fitness of many of the runners, there is too much guesswork required for me to feel comfortable getting involved.
I did get very close to tipping at Navan - but the fragile markets (even at 10:30 !) did their thing and the price of the horse I was interested in was cut, just before I was able to issue the tip !
As a consequence, you’re going to have to settle for my views on those races - plus a few of the class 3 and 4 contests, which are being run at Sandown and Ffos Las…
Sandown
12:45
Lord of the Island and Laxey are the 2 who appeal most in this - however both have too many question marks over them to be confident selections…
Lord of the Island should be well suited to todays conditions - having won a class 1 handicap over the course in heavy ground, 3 seasons ago.
He runs from a mark just 1 pound higher today - and this is a much weaker race - so from a handicapping perspective, he has every chance.
However, he has only seen the course 3 times since then - and is now 11 years old.
If the ability remains, he should win - but there’s obviously a distinct possibility that he’s not as good as he used to be…
I would expect the market to guide on his chance.
Laxey is a very different beast, in that he is only 5 - and has run only 3 times over hurdles (in fact, you couldn’t get much different !).
He’s stepping up in trip - and will be facing heavy ground for the first time - so you can only guess as to how he will cope.
My guess is that he will be fine: Henry Dalys horses rarely fail through a lack of stamina.
Whether he will be good enough, is a different matter - but again, I would expect the market to guide.
1:15
Champagne Court has been made quite a short priced favourite for this, considering it is his chasing debut.
That said, he has some strong hurdles form - and if he can translate that to the bigger obstacles, he is very much the one to beat.
He ran second in a couple of PTPs before embarking on his career under rules - so there is reason to think he should be fine jumping a fence.
However, Sandown is a tricky course - particularly for the inexperienced.
I’m not sure I’d want to side with him at 5/2 - but I don’t want to take him on, either...
Of his opponents, then Chambard is the one that appeals most.
He is also making his chasing debut - but doesn’t have any previous form jumping fences (his background is French NH flat races).
The big attraction with him, is that he’s trained by Venetia - and her horses are in sparking form.
2:25
The seasonal re-appearance of Santini, is the highlight of the Sandown card.
Always considered to be from the very top drawer, his first season over fences added some substance to his reputation.
He may only have won once from 3 outings - but he lost little in his 2 defeats - and at this point in time, he would be my idea of the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
Needless to say, I expect him to take this, up against just 3 opponents.
That said, I don't necessarily expect him to take it comfortably, as 3 miles around Sandown, is a barely satiable test for him.
I’ll be surprised if his class doesn't see him through though - and maybe his price for the big one in March, might even get a touch bigger !
Well, I can hope, can’t I ?!
3:30
I was hoping to find something to tip in this race - but unfortunately, I couldn’t find anything that I felt sufficiently comfortable with.
Again, things aren’t helped by those twin issues: ground - and fitness.
Over half the field are making their seasonal debuts (so we have to guess on their fitness) - and whilst the ground is described as good to soft on the chase course - I suspect it is going to be a fair bit softer than that, as it is heavy on the hurdles course !
The other issue with veterans chases, is judging the speed of decline of the runners.
At almost 14, Loose Chips is likely to be hurtling towards the pastures - but I do wonder if he might have one last pay day in him.
He won this race 12 months ago, off a mark 7lb higher - and has actually dropped over a stone in the handicap, this calendar year.
Ordinarily, that would be ridiculous - but for a 13 year old horse, it is maybe understandable.
He shaped with some promise on his seasonal debut at Carlisle - and I’m sure he ran there, simply to tee him up for today.
I could see him running very well - and I think he will make a good back to lay in-running.
Whether he will be able to withstand the challengers after the Pond fence, only time will tell…
Le Reve is the other one of major interest - but I just fear he might need his first run of the season.
If he is cherry ripe, then over a course and distance at which he excels, he could be the one to run down Loose Chips.
Ffos Las
12:55
If I did tip in class 4 races, I would be quite tempted by Brandon Roc in this.
He won on soft ground on his seasonal debut, 12 months ago - and off a mark just 3lb lower than he races from today.
His 2 subsequent runs last season, left a lot to be desired - but he could be the sort who goes best when fresh.
Kim Bailey has his horses in really good form - and 6/1 seems a fair price (accepting the risks that come with betting in relatively low grade contests).
3:05
Champers on Ice is the other one that interests me at the Welsh track.
He threatened to be top class a few seasons back - and whilst that didn’t quite happen, I suspect he still has sufficient ability to win a race of this nature.
He only ran twice last season - but a repeat of his 4th at Haydock on his seasonal debut, would probably be good enough to take todays race.
He was subsequently pulled up in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham - but was just a 10/1 shot that day.
This race is a world apart from that - and he’s off a mark 3lb lower.
He can also be backed at 4/1 - which strikes me as fair…
Navan
12:35
There are 6 runners in this grade 3 event (more than the 2 other graded events on the card) - but only 3 of them seem to have a realistic chance of winning.
Abacadabras has been installed favourite - and I think that is just about right.
He had some top class bumper form (including a 4th placing in the Cheltenham champion bumper) - and made a winning hurdling debut at Gowran last month.
He sets a standard which would be high enough to win an average renewal.
His main opponents are Fast Buck and Latest Exhibition.
The former sets the standard in terms of hurdling form - having won a listed event at Galway in July.
However, he lacks Abacadabras potential…
It’s hard to get a handle on Latest Exhibition. He won his only hurdles race - beating a well fancied Gordon Elliot runner.
However that was just a maiden, so the form isn’t easy to assess.
Clearly it’s not a race you could tackle with any confidence - but hopefully it will provide some valuable pointers for the future.
1:05
Apples Jade is the main attraction on the Navan card - and it will be a big surprise if she is beaten in this.
She won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and followed up in her next 3 races, before coming unstuck at the spring festivals.
In fairness, even her spring time form (particularly her run at Aintree), would be good enough to take todays contest.
Realistically, only Bacardys should be able to test her - and he’s hardly a model of consistency !
Robbie Power taking over in the saddle from the injured Jack Kennedy, is an interesting move for Apples Jade.
However, I expect him to dictate the fractions - and come home unchallenged.
2:10
I had intended to take a chance on Ballyoisin in this.
He was a 9/2 shot early - and 4/1 was generally available at 10:00.
However, at 10:19 (precisely !), his price was cut to 7/2 by just about every bookmaker.
He was still trading at over 5 on BF - so I don’t know what triggered it (though I do know that the bookies are particularly sensitive on Irish racing).
I think that price is about right (or at least, I don’t see a 20% margin in it) - so I’m no longer prepared to tip him.
In terms of the case for him:
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - by 23 lengths, easing up !
In fairness, todays opposition is a good deal stronger than it was 12 months ago - but I still think he is the one to beat.
Clearly, todays test suits him well - but I think the key to Ballyoisin is a small field and uncontested lead.
He will certainly get the former - and I’m optimistic that he’ll also get the latter.
His 2 main rivals are Duc des Genievres and A Plus Tard.
Both were hugely impressive winners at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and are expected to go on to better things this season.
And that is the issue with them - today is like to be a stepping stone for them both - whilst it could well be Ballyoisin’s ‘Cup Final’.
On ratings, A Plus Tard should be the main danger to Ballyoisin - but I’m sure he wants further than todays minimum trip.
Ultimately, this is likely to come down to whether Mark Walsh can get Balllyoisin jumping - and judge the fractions correctly.
If he can, then I would be optimistic that he will be able to take advantage of his race fitness and come home in front.
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB
Mentions
Sand 12:45 Lord of the Island (S ) & Laxey (S )
Ffos 12:55 Brandon Roc (C )
Ffos 3:05 Champers on Ice (O )
Nav 2:10 Ballyoisin (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
*Back-to lay IR
Sand 3:30 Loose Chips
*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race
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