There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wetherby, Ascot, Ayr and Down Royal.
It’s great to finally get the new TVB season properly under-way (not least, because it means I’m almost finished with the service admin !)
The pre-season went well (as tends to be the case !) - and I’m sure that those of you who go involved with it, can’t wait to ramp things up further, and invest your profits :)
Certainly, there is no faulting todays cards - or the races - I just wish the weather would play ball…
There is nothing I dread more (in the world of tipping !), than rain on a Friday evening/Saturday morning.
We saw last weekend at Cheltenham, how it can completely change things - so I was really disappointed to see that rain was forecast for all 4 of todays venues.
The issue is simply, that you don’t know how much there will be - or what impact it will have on the ground
And in racing, the state of the surface, is of paramount importance…
Still, it is what it is. No one ever forces us to bet !
I’ve done my best to assess (predict) conditions - and figured it was worth risking pulling the trigger on a few selections.
Hopefully I will have read/guessed things right !
I have edge on the side of caution, with regard to staking (first day - and uncertain weather).
I’ll look to ramp things up, once we are fully into the swing of things (and by then, hopefully the weather will also have stabilised !).
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble.
I’ve ended up with 6 tips on the day, spread across 5 races.
Here’s the rationale for them - along with my thoughts on the days other big races…
Ascot
1:35
This is a really fascinating novice chase - though not easy to call…
Virtually all of the runners can be given a chance - but there were 4 that particularly interested me.
Jammy George and Cervaro Mix are both owned by Andrew Brook - and his company sponsors the race (co-incidence..?!).
It’s tricky to choose between the pair, but the latter is easier to assess - and has also had a run this season.
That was at Fontwell, 4 weeks ago, when he was sent off a short priced fav for a handicap chase.
He travelled exuberantly that day (suggesting he would improve for the run) - but was still in with a chance, until he made a bad blunder, late on.
That sealed his fate - but it was still fair comeback effort.
If he builds on it, as I expect, then he should go close this afternoon.
The other 2 of major interest, are Diable de Sivola and On the Slopes.
The former makes his debut for Gary Moore, having transferred from Nick Williams during the summer.
If he’s improved for the move, then he should go close.
Despite that, I prefer the chance of On the Slopes.
Like Cervaro Mix, he’s already had a run this season, performing very creditably in a decent novice chase at Uttoxeter.
He was up against higher rated rivals that day - but travelled and jumped very well, just getting run out of things, close home.
Again, I would expect him to come on for the run - and I hope his sound jumping will prove an asset around Ascot (without wishing to tempt fate!).
It’s not a race to be going mad with (because there are so many unknowns) - but at the early odds, splitting a point across Cervaro Mix and On The Slopes, seemed the best way to play things.
2:10
I like the look of Diego du Charmil in this.
He makes his seasonal debut this afternoon - and I would usually consider that a negative - but not with him…
He’s a horse who is best fresh - as his record of 3 wins from 4, on his seasonal debut, testifies (particularly as one of those wins, was at the Cheltenham festival !).
The one blip on his debut record, occurred last season.
He was sent off a well backed favourite for the Halden Gold cup - but finished last.
However, he was struck into during that race - which I think is a fair excuse for an under-performance !
Superficially, the rest of last seasons campaign also looks disappointing - as he finished well beaten in his other 3 races.
However, on each occasion, he bumped into the mighty Alitior.
Safe to say, he will meet no rival of that ones ability this afternoon !
As a result of his efforts last season, Diego du Charmil starts this campaign on a mark 7lb lower.
Add in the 3lb claim of jockey Lorcan Williams and you have a horse running from a mark, where he can do damage.
The other thing that attracts me to him today, is that I can see the race being set up perfectly.
He’s a horse who likes to be dropped in - and with a glut of front runners in opposition, that could be the perfect tactic…
Of his opponents, then the second season novice, Clondaw Castle, is the one I fear most.
He has plenty of scope off a mark of 144.
However, he’s also making his seasonal debut - and his record fresh is mixed.
Furthermore, there is minimal margin in a best price of 9/2 (and I’d be concerned if the price drifted).
2:45
As regular readers will know, I’m not in the habit of tipping favourites in big field handicaps - however, I’m prepared to make an exception with Adjali…
This doesn’t look a particularly strong race.
I’ve nothing against Lisp - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well - but the fact he was installed second fav for the race, tells me that the bar is not being set overly high.
He’s a decent enough animal - but unless he’s improved markedly over the summer, then he should be beatable, off his current mark.
Adjali, on the other hand, could be significantly better than his current rating - and that makes him attractive.
He’s only a 4 year old - but he ran a number of creditable races in his juvenile season - and was campaigned like a very good horse (he was quietly fancied in the Triumph hurdle).
As he’s a French import, there is a good chance that he will have improved during his first summer in England, and if that is the case, he could laugh at todays rival, off a mark of 141.
Didtheyleaveyououtto is the obvious one to fear - but he’s very inconsistent (and it may be significant that Barry Geraghty hasn’t come over to ride him); whilst of the outsiders, Sparkelandshine catches my eye, on his second run for Harry Whittington, having run creditably in the corresponding race, 12 months ago. He could be worth a tiny saver, at big odds.
3:20
In all probability, one of the second season novices will win this.
Vindication, On the Blind Side, Mister Malarkey, Larry and Springtown Lake, dominate the betting - and that is perfectly understandable.
They all have significant scope for improvement - particularly the first 2 named, who are making their handicap debuts.
That said, the market is clearly wise to them - and there is a world of difference between winning small field novice events - and winning big field handicaps.
In the circumstances, I’m more inclined to take a risk on Relentless Dreamer.
He doesn’t lack for big field handicap experience, in fact he was a winning selection in a 16 runner handicap at Cheltenham, during the pre-season 12 months ago.
He has only raced once since then - at the beginning of last month, when he finished third to Balyoptic at Chepstow (another winning pre-season selection :) ).
Somewhat surprisingly, Relentless Dreamer gets to run today, from a mark just 3lb higher than the one he was successful from at Cheltenham.
That gives him a real chance of recording another victory.
In truth, he would possibly be better as an EW selection (considering the nature of the opposition) - but I’m never keen on that path (particularly in chases).
I will try and save stakes, with small bets on Vindication and On the Blind side - but officially speaking, all the eggs are in the Relentless Dreamer basket !
Wetherby
1:55
I had earmarked Indefatigable as a tip in this, when she opened up at 9/2 yesterday evening.
However, she has come in for sustained support since then - and as I look now, she is just 2/1 !
I can understand that to an extent.
This looks a 4 horse race: and whilst Vision du Puy and Zambella have plenty of potential - they also have plenty to prove.
Indefatigable has nothing to prove - including her fitness - an advantage she holds over likely chief rival, Lady Buttons.
There was only a neck between the pair when they met at Doncaster last season - and with a fitness edge, it is quite reasonable to think that Indefatigable will be able to reverse the form today.
However, I do think that 2 miles suits Lady Buttons better than Indefatigable - and I also think that the Doncaster run may have slightly flattered the latter.
Whatever, I doubt there will be much between the pair this afternoon - and whilst I would expect them to both beat their unexposed rivals (plus the other runners in the race), that’s not absolutely guaranteed.
In the circumstances, I can’t see any angle into the race, from a betting perspective.
3:05
I would have been very tempted to tip Ballyandy in this, if he’d been available at 2/1 or bigger this morning.
I accept that his stamina is unproven - and that is a slight concern - but simply, none of his rivals look capable of winning…
Unowhatimeanharry was the original race favourite - but he’s pushing 12, won’t relish heavy ground and is unlikely to be spot on for his seasonal debut.
It’s a very similar story with The Worlds End (apart from the age bit !); whilst the other 4 runners just don’t look good enough.
In short, I expect Ballyandy to win by default…
I guess there’s a chance that Le Breuil or Lord Napier (or even UnowhatImeanharry ) will be tuned to run for their lives: or alternatively, there’s a chance that Ballyandys stamina won’t last out.
I think both are unlikely though - which would have made Ballyandy a very tempting proposition at 2/1.
I’d even consider getting involved with him, if he drifted - though if it were in the face of strong opposition for one of the 3 named, I’d be a little less keen.
3:40
The prospect of heavy ground and a potential pace war, make this a hard race to call.
There has been a fair bit of rain at Wetherby over the past few days - and the ground already looked soft, by the end of racing yesterday.
If there is any more rain pre-race, this may well end up a slog.
That, coupled with the fact that at least 3 of the runners could try to lead, means there is just too much uncertainty, to risk getting involved.
So much will depend on conditions; tactics and fitness (all relatively unknown) - form could be incidental.
Ballyoptic, Top Ville Ben and Le Bague au Roi, could all try to lead.
That would be likely to turn it into a stamina test, which would suit Elegant Escape and Definitly Red.
However the former may need the run; whilst the later has to concede weight to his rivals (and all things being equal, he shouldn’t really be good enough to do that).
Bizarrely, if the rain hadn’t come, I would have been quite keen on Molly the Dolly.
She gets a lot of weight from all of her rivals (almost a stone from Definitly Red) - and I’ve no doubt that Dan Skelton will have her primed to the minute.
However, she doesn’t want soft ground (never mind heavy) - so that is likely to prove her undoing…
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race - though if condition's turn out not to be as bad as I expect, then I’ll certainly be having a small play on Molly.
Down Royal
2:25
The big race of the day in Ireland, is a fascinating contest - but not easy to call.
There may only be 5 runners - but it’s hard to split the 3 at the head of the betting - and fitness is likely to prove crucial.
Non of the 3 have run previously this season, so there is too much guesswork involved to justify a strong view.
My inclination would be to oppose favourite, Delta Work, on his first run outside novice company.
I’ve no doubt he is a very talented animal - but he is taking on a couple of proven grade 1 performers in Clan des Obeaux and Road to Respect - and consequently it is hard to justify a price of 6/4.
Ignoring price, then I think Clan des Obeaux is the most likely winner.
He won last years King George - and I suspect Paul Nichols will have him pretty straight for today.
That said, he can only represent minimal value at 2/1, against Delta Work and last years winner, Road to Respect (and that’s ignoring the other 2 runners).
Ayr
2:15
Depending on how you choose to view it, Flashjack is either a great bet in this - or a questionable one !
On the downside, he’s a 9 year old, making his seasonal debut.
He finished well beaten on his latest run (back in March), when he broke a blood vessel.
Yet, despite all that, he is running off a career high mark today…
On the flip side:
He has a very good record fresh and absolutely loves heavy ground.
He has been sent hundreds of miles, by bang in form trainer Henry Daly; and is ridden by an excellent claimer in Richard Patrick (he is the only runner on the card, for both of them).
Furthermore, the apposition he faces today looks distinctly limited - headed by the winner of last years Scottish Grand National, Takingrisks.
The deciding factor for me, was the price.
I expected him to be just about favourite for this race (even accepting the negatives) - yet he can be backed at 5/1.
In a 5 horse race, that is definitely worth a risk…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Ascot 1:35 Cervaro Mix 0.5pt win 9/1
Ascot 1:35 On The Slopes 0.5pt win 8/1
Ascot 2:10 Diego du Charmil 1pt win 9/1
Ascot 2:45 Adjali 1pt win 5/1
Ascot 3:20 Relentless Dreamer 0.5pt win 14/1
Ayr 2:15 Flashjack 1pt win 5/1
Mentions
Weth 1:55 Indefatigable (P )
Weth 3:05 Ballyandy (P )
Weth 3:40 Molly the Dolly (C )
DR 2:25 Clan des Obeaux (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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