Daily write-up - Nov 23rd

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ascot, Haydock & Huntingdon in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

Without doubt, today sees the best racing of the season so far.

Ascot and Haydock have put on top class cards, that have both quality and variety.

The feature chases at each venue, have only drawn small fields - but they are still absolutely fascinating contests.

Whilst if betting is your thing (which presumably it is, for most of you :) ) then there are a host of suitable races, in which it is possible to take a stance.

The action isn’t quite at the same level at either Gowran or Huntingdon - though there are a couple of decent chases taking place at the former track.
I’ve not looked at either race in detail though - all my attention was focused on the days main meetings…

Overnight rain - and the possibility of pre-race rain - hasn’t helped in assessing the going at either course.

Ascot looked quite hard work yesterday - and I suspect it will be even more so, this afternoon.
The ground at Haydock is supposed to be relatively good (for the time of year) - though obviously we won’t get confirmation of that, until it’s too late !

Finding horses to tip today, really wasn’t a problem - the problem was selecting the ‘right’ ones.

I do think that all the tips that I issued were good bets - though only time will tell whether the good bets are also winning ones !
Fingers crossed on that score…

Here’s the rationale behind the tips I did issue - along with my thoughts on the other big races at both Ascot and Haydock.


Ascot

12:55

I do love novice handicap chases - and this is a particularly fine example !
With just the 8 runners - and a couple near the head of the market that I’m happy to oppose - it has a very nice betting shape.
Pym is the fancied horse which I want to take on: I’m not convinced about him on soft ground and with top weight.
And if I take on him. I also have to take on Erick le Rouge - as Pym finished ahead of that one, last time, at Huntingdon.
I can’t have Spiders Bite, without a previous run (he’s a gross horse); whilst Deise Aba dropped out alarmingly, on his most recent run - and Kapgarrys 9lb rise for his win at Wetherby, makes him look vulnerable.
As a consequence, I’m left with a short list of 3: Highest Sun, Darling Maltix and Neachells Bridge.
Highest Sun is the most solid of the trio - but he is also 5/2 fav - and unproven over todays trip.
As a consequence, the 2 to focus on from a betting perspective, are Darling Maltix and Neachells Bridge.
They met last time, at the beginning of the month, in a similar race over todays course.
Darling Maltix came out on top that day - and was making his seasonal debut.
However, Neachells Bridge suffered some serious late interference, which cost him any chance.
Both have been dropped in the handicap on the back of that run - and choosing between them isn’t easy.
I suspect that Darling Matix has the ability to win a race such as this - and will love the soft ground: but Neachells Bridge is the more straightforward - and also a bigger price !
I also think Neachells Bridge will relish the step up in trip.
Neachells Bridge it is then !

1:30

Rosy World holds quite a bit of appeal in this.
I fancied her the last time she ran, at Aintree, 2 weeks ago.
That was her first try at 3 miles and she looked sure to appreciate the step up in trip.
However, the race didn’t work out for her that day, as she had to make the running in a small field.
Ultimately, she became a sitting duck - and her 2 main rivals sprinted past her, after jumping the last.
She gets to run in a bigger field today - and there is almost certainly going to be pace, courtesy of Marienstar, Drinks Interval or Same Circus.
That scenario should suit Rosy World much better - and enable her to show what she is capable of.
And I’m very hopeful that she is capable of showing herself a fair bit better than her current rating of 118.
She is relatively unexposed, with only 6 previous runs over hurdles, so there is still plenty of scope for improvement.
I also like the fact that Ben Godfrey returns to the saddle having missed out at Aintree, last time.
He rode her when she won at Plumpton last March - and is good value for his 7lb claim.
Of her rivals, then Coilite Eile concerns me most: whilst Drinks Interval is handicapped to win, if she is able to translate her chase form back to the smaller obstacles.

2:05

Altior v Cyrname
I don’t think I can say much that hasn’t already been said about this match up.
The highest rated horse in training (Cyrname), taking on a horse who is unbeaten in 19 runs over obstacles.
From a purest perspective, it doesn’t get much better than this.
Altior is stepping up in trip from 2 miles for the first time - but last season, it looked as if that needed to happen.
Cyrname should have perfect conditions, in terms of course, trip and ground.
Both horses are making their seasonal debut - and fitness could be crucial.
My feeling is that Altior is a superstar: whilst Cyrname isn’t - yet !
I don’t expect Altior to have any issue with the trip - and Cyrname is likely to provide a target for him to aim at.
If forced, I’d side with Altior - but no one is forcing me - and this is very much a race that should be savoured…

2:40

Assuming he is close to his peak, then Call me Lord should win this.
On official ratings, he is the joint highest rated horse in the race - but he receives 6lb from If the Cap Fits (the other joint highest rated runner).
Furthermore, If the Cap Fits is second best in at the weights, according to the official marks.
That in itself wouldn’t make Call me Lord a compelling selections - but the fact that he will get his ideal conditions, makes him very hard to oppose.
He’s a horse who must go right handed (his best form is at Sandown): he also wants 2m4f and soft ground - both of which he will get this afternoon.
As the youngest horse in the race, he has most scope for improvement - so his chance does look very good indeed.
The only real question mark concerns his fitness - but I reckon Nicky Henderson will have him pretty fit.
I suspect that even at 95%, he will be able to win this - which means he’s probably value at around 2/1.
Roksana is the obvious danger.
She shouldn’t be capable of beating him, based on ratings - but she has the benefit of race fitness and I’ve no doubt Harry Skelton will be looking to make the most of that.
Our old buddy, Lil Rockerfeller is the only other one who has run previously this season - and I suspect he can outrun his odds.
Whether he can beat Call me Lord (or even Roksana) however, is a very different matter…

3:20

This is an extremely valuable handicap - and it’s drawn a suitably competitive field.
Diego du Charmil did us a big favour last time - and on the face of it, I would give him a decent chance of following up today, off a mark just 5lb higher.
Certainly, he looked value for more than 5lb when he won (having lost all momentum, when ploughing through the edge of the fence !) - but part of the angle with him that day, was the fact he was fresh - so obviously that’s not the case today.
I certainly wouldn’t dismiss his chance - though on the book, he should struggle to account for Capeland (the horse he took out, when he veered approaching the last).
He’s an understandable favourite - but I really couldn’t back anything, at 4/1 in this race…
Knocknanus should have the measure of The Last Day, based on their meeting at Newbury, 12 months ago (accepting that the latter may have improve since then) - however, it’s anyones guess what impact the fitting of first time blinkers, will have to the already head strong Knocknanus.
Apparently the hope is that they will get him to jump straight - I guess time will tell…
From a pure handicapping perspective, a good case can be made for Speredek.
He finished runner up in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and gets to run from a mark 4lb lower, today.
I’m not sure he’s done much to warrant that drop in the handicap - and he should certainly be able to reverse the form with Caid du Lin, who beat him just over a length that day - but is 10lb worse off today.
Speredek actually ran in Diegos race last time - and finished well beaten.
However, he travelled nicely to the home turn - and it did look very much like a prep for today.
I’ll be surprised if he is able to lead today (I expect Knocknanus will take on that role !) - but I would expect him to sit in just behind and hopefully take over, down the home straight.
That’s the theory, anyway !


Haydock

1:15

Midnight Shadow really should win this.
He’s the highest rated horse in the field - yet receives weight from all but one of his rivals (and he’s rated 13lb superior to that one !).
Admittedly, his rating is based on his hurdles mark - but it’s quite reasonable to think he will be at least as good over fences, as he is over hurdles…
Certainly, he would have won on his chasing debut at Carlisle last time - but for a final fence fall.
That’s always a danger with a novice - and there is no way of knowing whether it will have affected his confidence.
If it hasn’t, then over a more suitable trip (todays race is over half a mile further), he really should take the world of beating - provided you are prepared to ignore one thing…
His trainer, Sue Smith, hasn’t trained a winner since last spring.
In that time she has sent out 76 runners - and every one has been beaten !
In fairness, a few have been unlucky (like Midnight Shadow) - but it is still a desperately poor situation.
Certainly, it would be very difficult to back a horse at less than 2/1, hailing from a stable with that kind of record…
By contrast, just about everything Fegal O’Brien saddles at the moment, win - which makes his Jarveys Plate a more attractive option.
He has also only run once over fences - but that was when defeating the potentially high class Reserve Tank, at Chepstow.
That is stronger form than Midnight Shadows run at Carlisle (even if he hadn’t fallen), so when coupled with the stable form, it makes Jarveys Plate the more attractive option.
Of the others, then Actival won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and is likely to have been targeted at it again.
He has a bit to do from a handicapping perspective - but his greater experience could prove an asset.

1:50

Some times you have to go with your hunches - and my hunch is that Fin and Game is a good bet in this !
For a start, he’s the only runner at the track, for Donald McCain.
That’s unusual, as it’s one of his local courses - and he generally comes mob handed.
It’s not as if the stable is in poor form, either: it has 2 big priced winner at Catterick yesterday - and has been operating at a strike rate of over 20% for the past few weeks.
Obviously, stable form is just one thing - I like to be able to make a case for the horse as well - and that’s quite easy to do with Fin and Game…
When he won his maiden hurdle, 2 season ago, he destroyed Not that Fuisse by 9 lengths.
That one is now rated 131 - Fin and Game runs today off a mark of 124.
He won twice more than season - before switching to fences last season.
However, that didn’t go well - and was shelved after just 2 runs.
Back over hurdles, he was runner up to Cornerstone Lad, over today course, last December.
Cornerstone Lad is now rated 16lb higher than he was that day, showing Fin and Game had a near impossible task, trying to beat him.
There is little doubt in my mind that Fin and Game is a potentially well handicapped horse - and I think todays step up in trip, could suit him well.
The fact it is his seasonal debut, is a slight concern - but he has a good record fresh.
In terms of his opponents - then plenty can be given a chance - but non particularly worry me.
If Fin and Game is as good as I think he could be - and if he’s been targeted at this race, as I suspect - then it will take a very well handicapped horse to beat him.

2:25

It’s no exaggeration to say that you won’t see a more competitive handicap than this, before the Cheltenham festival !
17 runners - and all bar 2 or 3 can be given a serious chance.
It’s definitely a race which should be watched closely, with an eye to the future.
As for today, then the one that appeals most, is Acey Milan.
He was a top class bumper horse, 2 seasons back - finishing fourth in the Cheltenham  bumper, when sent off 9/2 favourite.
On the back of that, he was supposed to turn into a serious novice hurdler last season - but that just didn’t happen.
He was a beaten favourite when heavily odds on, for his first 2 runs - and whilst he managed to win his third race, that was a run-of-the-mill novice event at Plumpton.
As a consequence, he got an opening handicap mark of just 127 - and the expectation was that he would take advantage of that…
However, he again disappointed, when only finishing third at Uttoxeter - and then unplaced at the Punchestown festival.
He ran better on his seasonal return at Plumpton 2 weeks ago - but still managed to find one too good.
So, in such a competitive race, why do I think he will come good this afternoon ?
Well firstly, he’s still only 5 - so still has plenty to learn and lost of improving to do.
There was definite promise in his comeback run - and a 3lb claimer takes over in the saddle today.
The fitting of cheek pieces for the first time, suggests connections are going for it - and with such a big pot on offer, that makes sense.
At the end of the day, a horse who was expected to be running in last seasons Ballymore hurdle, is instead competing off an effective mark of 122 in a handicap.
He’s fit - and his stable is in form.
There is plenty to like.
What I don’t like so much, is his current price of 8/1 !
He was 14/1 this morning - but I suspect was tipped just before I tipped him.
That caused a price crash which shows little sign of relenting !
At 8/1, I wouldn’t have tipped him (I would have thought twice at 10/1).
As I said, this is a hyper competitive race - and you definitely need some margin to get involved.
There are dangers every way you look: Tedham and Breaking Waves are clearly both well fancied; whilst I’ve had a saver on Umbrigado (at 9/1).
Stoney Mountain, Ask Ben and Echiquier are 3 more who now look over-priced - but, so strong is the race, I won’t be surprised if they don’t even place !

3:00

It might not quite be Altior v Cyrname - but Bristol de Mai v Lostintranslation, is still a match to get the blood racing.
Bristol is unbeaten in 4 previous runs at Haydock - and has won the past 2 runnings of this race: whilst Lostintranslation, looked a superstar in waiting, when he put in a faultless round of jumping, on his seasonal debut at Carlisle.
Again, it is anyones guess who will come out on top - though unlike the Ascot race, there is a real chance that they both might get trumped !
Frodon is only rated 1 pound inferior to Bristol (and 8lb superior to Lostintranslation) - and 3 miles around Haydock on decent ground, should be perfect for him.
He was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Aintree - but that race was a bit of a farce (half the fences were taken out) - and at least it will have blown away the cobwebs.
Certainly, if he had been 7/1 this morning, then I would have tipped him.
I felt that 6/1 was borderline - because 5/1 strikes me as the right price.
And surprise, surprise, 5/1 is now the price that he can be backed at !
I wouldn’t put anyone off getting involved at that price - but I don’t see any value in it.
Ultimately, this race is likely to come down to tactics and jumping.
All 4 runners can front run - but I suspect Frodon will take up the mantle.
It will then come down to how they all jump - and whether Bryony can get the fractions right.
If she does, then I think Frodon can just about win - if she doesn’t then Bristol and Lostintranslation are likely to come sailing by, down the home straight.
It should be a fascinating watch…

3:40

This is another open looking race.
There are only 9 runners - but a case can be made for the entire field.
Furthermore, there are also question marks over all of them - so figuring out the most likely winner is quite a challenge !
I’ve opted to side with Zerachiel - despite the fact that he is making his seasonal debut.
In fairness, the horse has shown a few times that he can run well when fresh - so I don’t expect that to be an issue today.
Certainly the fitting of a first time visor suggests that connections are in the race to win - and not just planning a run round !
He finished second on the Lincolnshire national on what was effectively his seasonal return 12 months ago - so the extreme distance shouldn’t be a problem.
He has also shown his best form at Haydock - when hacking up over todays course and distance, 18 months ago.
In short, he has ticks in sufficient boxes, to warrant a risk at the price.
I did half consider dutching him with Moving in Style.
Again, it’s not hard to make a case for him - and like Zerachiel, he looks to offer a bit of value at around 8/1.
The only thing is, I think the value in them both is close to the minimum I would accept - so I felt happier just taking one shot at the race, and going with the horse which I fancy slightly more.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips

Asc 12:55 Neachells Bridge 0.5pt win 20/1
Asc 1:30 Rosy World 1pt win 11/2
Asc 3:20 Speredek 0.5pt win 10/1
Hayd 1:50 Fin and Game 1pt win 11/1
Hayd 2:25 Acey Milan 0.5pt win 12/1
Hayd 3:40 Zerachiel 0.5pt win 9/1

Mentions

Asc 2:40 Call me Lord (P )
Hayd 1:15 Midnight Shadow (C )
Hayd 3:00 Frodon (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions