Thursday 21 November 2019

Review of the day

It was nice to get back on the score sheet this afternoon - and, even though I say so myself, it was thoroughly deserved !

The write-up may have lacked its usual accuracy, in terms of spelling and punctuation (apologies for that, tipping late gives makes timings incredibly tight), but what it lacked in gloss, it more than made up for in substance.

Race after race, I was there - or thereabouts - so much so, it would have taken quite some effort to not tip a winner (something I hasten to add, I am more than capable of achieving !).

Thankfully, I got one of the border line calls right - and Happy Diva did the rest !

To be fair, she wasn’t a borderline call in terms of the chance I felt she had - just in terms of how much value was left in her compressed price.

As I mentioned this morning, she was 16/1 generally, all week (20/1 in places) - and that makes it quite hard to take 12/1.
I was pretty sure her price would drift - simply because of the strength of the race - but that’s only of limited use to me when I'm tipping.

It was a similar story with Ballyoisin last week - so at least I’ve learnt the lesson !

In terms of how the race panned out - then it went pretty much as I’d hoped !

I watched her all the way round - and she barely missed a beat.
One sound jump after another, as her rivals were busy bumping into fences and sprawling about !

She was always a very good bet to place - the question was whether she was a good bet to win…

I don’t know about that - but things fell right for her (in the case of Slate House, quite literally !) - and she was good enough and brave enough to take advantage.

It’s a while since I’ve got so much pleasure from a winner…

Earlier in the card, things hadn’t gone quite so well with Big River.

I wasn’t unduly concerned that he started near the front - and worked his way back through the field, as I expected him to stay on late.
However, when he nearly fell at the third last, it quickly became clear that it was game over.

He may have had ticks in just about every box - but he looked slow this afternoon, up against some speedier southern rivals.
Maybe I should have taken heed of my initial instincts !

The Butler Said was the third tip at Cheltenham - and he was backed in to a ridiculous 3/1 at the off.

He ran a fair race, but was a bit too far off the pace and couldn’t make up ground in the heavy conditions.

The race was won by Golan Fortune - who I had suggested might be one to keep an eye out for, at a big price.

I did actually half consider tipping him - but felt there was just a bit too much speculation (he had run only once in 2 years - and finished well beaten).

Ofcourse, he became far more attractive when the early 33/1 became 14/1 at the off. It’s funny how often that kind of market moves precedes a very big run…

The final tip at Cheltenham was Shanwalla.
As I said this morning, it was impossible to be confident about him winning - though I was confident about him out-runnig his odds.

And I was quite right on that score, as he ran a huge race to finish third.

I was a little surprised to see him held up (he’s made the running in all of his starts in Ireland) - and whilst I don’t think that cost him the race, it probably didn’t give him his best chance of winning.

In truth, he was probably just beaten by a couple of horses who are way ahead of their mark.
That’s always a danger in a race of that nature - but it doesn’t stop him from being a very good bet.

The only other tip on the day, was at Punchestown.

I decided to take on Klassical Dream in the Grade 1 Morgiana hurdle - despite him being sent off at odds of 2/5 !

And that was another good shout, as he look in need of the run and could only finish third.

Better than that, the 25/1 selection, Petite Mouchoir finished ahead of him - but unfortunately, only by one place.

He ran a really good race - but I just felt that Rachael Blackmore just didn’t quite make enough use of him.

He led to the last - but was then over taken.
However, he was fighting back on the run in…

They are fine lines - and I feel that we were just on the wrong side of one there…

As for the Mentions, then all 3 of them also ran well.

Walk Again looked like taking advantage of Faugheens sloppy jumping - but the ex-champion managed to stay on his feet and rallied after the last to win going away.
There is no substitute for class
Thatsmyseat was unplaced in the juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham - but she travelled really well and appeared to have a good chance, approaching the second last.
They probably don't have hills like the Cheltenham one, in France !
Whilst in the closing bumper, Lady in Hiding ran a remarkably similar race to the one she had run in a remarkably similar contest at the October meeting.
Turning in, she looked the one to beat - but then she got caught out by the pace change, before staying on late to take third.
When she is put over hurdles, she will want further than the minimum trip, that’s for sure…

All in all then, not a bad day.
I did tell you that the season would start to warm up this weekend ;)

TVB.

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