Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival.
There’s been no overnight rain - and
the going description has been changed to ‘soft’ (removing the ‘heavy
patches’).
It would be reasonable to assume the ground will therefore be
riding a touch quicker than it was yesterday.
However, that may not be the
case…!
When wet ground starts to dry, it goes through a ‘sticky’ phase -
and I suspect we might see that today !
Unfortunately, such ground suits
some horses better than others - and it’s hard to know in advance, which ones
will take to it and which ones won’t…
On the plus side - there were never
going to be many betting opportunities today.
In fact, I am struggling to
think of a more punter unfriendly festival card !
4 of the 7 races have
very short priced favs (2 of them are odds on): whilst of the remaining 3, 2 are
big field handicaps.
That leaves just one race, in which you would
conventionally want to play - but it’s a very hard one to fathom…
As a
consequence, I’ve just got one tip on the day - though I do quite fancy it !
Just a quick reminder about the Live thread in the forum:
I ran it
yesterday afternoon - and it seemed to be well received (by those who commented
!).
This is not a selling exercise - but I gave positive mentions to both
Shishkin and Honeysuckle, in the live markets - and I know a few took
advantage.
It certainly gives a different dimension, being able to offer
views, without worrying about price crashes !
Anyway, if you are interested,
here is the link to todays thread:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-2-td19927.html#a19943
Cheltenham
1:30 The runs of Abacadabras and Darver
Star yesterday, seriously franked the form of Envoi Allen - and he is very much
the one to beat in this.
Unbeaten in 7 runs under rules - he won the bumper
at last years festival and has won his 3 hurdle races this season.
The second
of those, was the grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse - in which he comfortably
accounted for Abacadabras and Darver Star.
That was over 2 miles - but he
was stepped up a further 4 furlongs, on his most recent start, when he beat
Elixir D’Anay at Naas.
He wasn’t quite as impressive that day - but he still
won by nearly 4 lengths - and the runner up enhanced that form, when an unlucky
late faller in yesterdays supreme.
In short, Envoi Allen can boast an
exceptional level of form - and in all probability, he will only lose this race,
if he under-performs.
Ofcourse, that is a possibility - particularly on the
likely sticky ground - but it’s not something I would want to bet on.
In
terms of what’s likely to chase him home, then despite quite a strong looking
field, Sporting John appears by far the most likely.
He’s shown great ability
to win his 3 hurdle races to date - and if Envoi Allen weren’t in the field, he
would be a worthy favourite.
The Big Breakaway and The big Getaway, have also
both shown a lot of potential, however they are likely to be next years horses
(both are huge - as their names suggest !) - which might allow Easywork to take
third place.
He disappointed on his latest outing - but should be better
suited by todays longer trip.
Son of Camas is the one of most interest at
really big prices - though he will need to find significant improvement, just to
be placed.
2:10 In theory, this is the most attractive
betting race on the card - but it looks a minefield !
The 10 runners are
separated by only 9lb on official ratings - and whilst it would be a little
surprising to see either of the outsiders (Castlebawn West and Aye Right) come
home in front, stranger things have happened !
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to
discount any of the remaining 8 - which makes taking a stance on the race, quite
tricky…
Ignoring the odds, I would make Minella Indo the most likely winner
(despite him having the second lowest official rating !).
He won the Albert
Bartlett at last years festival, so clearly goes well at the course.
The only
issue is - he’s now the race favourite !
Furthermore, he doesn’t have a lot
in hand of Allaho - so it would be hard to back him at a short price.
Champ
and Copperhead lead the home defence - and whilst victory for either wouldn’t
come as a great surprise, neither are bombproof.
Champ is probably the most
talented runner in the race - but he sometimes can't be bothered to jump the
fences!
Copperhead is a very different beast - the question with him is
whether he has sufficient class to win a race of this nature.
At the prices,
I would struggle to support any of the 4 mentioned - which suggests there should
be ‘value’ in the other 4.
And there probably is - I’m just a little
disinclined to support horses when I don’t really fancy them...
I guess one
option would be to lay the first 4 in the market - knowing that you’d have at
least 3 losers - and 6 others on your side who have half a chance !
If I was
forced to just select one for a bet, I’d probably go with Battleoverdoyen.
He
disappointed at last years festival (when a short priced fav for the Ballymore)
- and he fell last time (again, when a short priced fav) - so he definitely
comes with risks attached.
On the flip side, he has masses of ability -and
Gordon Elliott has deemed it worth bringing him over.
He’s 14/1 as I type -
but if he gets backed down to single figures at the off, I’d be tempted to take
the hint.
2:50 I issued the short-list for this race
yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.
However, I have also
tipped Dame du Compagnie - because I think her by far the most likely race
winner !
As with yesterday, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the
suggested staking on the short list - but it will simply be a case of max stake
on her - and savers on a few of the possible dangers…
3:30
The late defection of Altior has robbed this race of a good chunk of
it’s interest.
The reigning champion would have been looking for his third
consecutive win in the race - and should have faced his toughest test to
date.
It’s a shame that we won’t get to find out whether he would have been
up to the challenge…
In his absence, it now looks like being a match between
Defi du Seuil and Chacon Pour Soir - and whilst it is still an intriguing
contest, it’s not really a betting medium…
Defi and Chacon actually met at
Punchestown, at the back end of last season - when the latter announced himself
as a coming force in the 2 mile chasing division.
Prior to that race, he had
only run once for Willie Mullins - wining a modest Beginners chase at
Naas.
However, a 4 length despatching of Defi, showed that he was a potential
star in the making.
Based purely on that run, then todays race shouldn’t
really be a contest (Chacon should again win) - however there are reasons for
thinking that Defi might be able to reverse the form.
For a start, it was the
final run of what had been a tough season for him: whilst he has also looked an
improved performer this campaign.
Of the two, I think he is likely to be
better suited by the holding ground - and you would always favour the stalker in
a 2 horse race !
In truth, it’s an impossible one to call with confidence - I
just hope we get to see the showdown run to completion.
Of the others, then
Dynamite Dollars looks the most interesting.
He was a very good novice last
season - until injury curtailed his campaign.
He made a pleasing comeback
behind Altior at Newbury last month, and if he can build on that, he appears the
one most likely to follow the principals home.
That said, on the book, Defi
doesn’t have much in hand of Politologue - who himself finished second on this
race 12 months ago.
Though the fact that Harry Cobden has opted for Dynamite
Dollars ahead of Politologue, makes the former even more interesting
!
Whether it makes him sufficiently interesting to warrant getting involved,
is a different matter - though I may have a small wager on him just in case
!
4:10 However you look at this race, Tiger Roll is by far
the most likely winner…
He’s won the past 2 renewals (last season by 20
lengths) - and will have been primed for his hat-trick bid this
afternoon.
Ofcourse, he’s also won the past 2 renewals of the Grand National
- and on official ratings, is over 20lb clear of all bar 2 of his rivals.
I
thought he shaped with definite promise on his comeback run over hurdles, last
month - and it will be a real shock if he is beaten.
In truth, it looks as if
he’s only got 1 rival to beat (plus a tricky course to navigate !) - and if you
can get even money about him (which may be possible), then I think it can be
argued that it’s a very decent bet…
The potential fly in the ointment, is
Easyland.
He was an impressive winner over this course in December - and at
just 6 years old, appears the coming force in the discipline.
Certainly, I
wouldn’t be surprised to see him present Tiger Roll with a real challenge in 12
months time - but with Tiger still at his peak, he will need to be exceptional,
if he's going to beat him…
Whilst there are 14 other runners, then assuming
there are no slips ups from the big 2, it will be a little surprising if any of
them are involved in the finish.
Might Bite is obviously the most interesting
of the remainder, on his first try over the banks course.
If he retained his
old ability, then he would be a proper challenger for Tiger Roll - but he now
looks a shadow of his former self.
Of the the others, then I would maybe
nominate Diesel Dallier as the most likely to take third place - but in reality,
this is likely to just be a a watching race…
4:50 I
issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets,
shortly.
5:30 This is another race that makes minimal
appeal, from a betting perspective.
Appreciate It heads the market and is a
very short priced favourite.
There are 2 reasons for that: firstly, he was an
impressive winner of the bumper at the Dublin Racing festival - and winners of
that race, have a very good record in this contest; and secondly, he is trained
by Willie Mullins !
Willie invariably has a particularly strong set of
bumper horses - and it would appear that this one sits head and shoulders above
his stable mates !
Obviously, I couldn’t back him - but equally, I would be
guessing if I put up anything against him…
If I was to try and find a ‘value’
bet in the race, I would probably side with one of Gordon Elliotts
runners.
He saddles 3 in the race: Darling Daughter, Queens Brook and
Eskylane.
The first 2 are mares - so get an allowance; whilst the third
actually finished a place in front of Appreciate It, when both of them made
their debut at Fairyhouse in November.
The expectation is that Appreciate It
has subsequently made the greater improvement - but that may not be the case
(Eskylane has won his only subsequent race).
David Pipe appears to provide
the strongest home challengers - but I’m not entirely convinced by either of his
runners and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tom Lacey trained Adrimal, do best
of the English.
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 2:50 Dame du Compagnie 1pt win
5/1
Mentions
Chel 1:30 Envoi Allen (P ) - best outsider
Easywork
Chel 2:10 Minella Indo (O ) - best outsider Battleoverdoyen
Chel
3:30 Defi du Seuil (P) - best outsider Dynamite Dollars
Chel 4:10 Tiger Roll
(P ) - best outsider Diesel Dallier
Chel 5:30 Appreciate It (P ) - best
outsider Eskylane
The letter
in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice);
(O)pposition; (S)peculative;
(C)onditions