Sedgefield passed it’s early morning inspection, so there’s a full set of fixtures taking place (it’s a shame that wasn’t the case yesterday !).
However, the UK racing - both Sedgefield and Huntingdon - isn’t particularly inspiring, and there’s only one race across the 2 meeting which warrants a preview.
Things are a little better at Leoparstown - though it’s hardly a showcase meeting !
There are a couple of race of interest there - and somewhat surprisingly, one of them has even yielded a tip (just a small one, mind !).
Here’s the rationale behind that - along with my thoughts on the two other main races of the day…
Leopardstown
3:35
A little bit like the race I covered at Fairyhouse, last Sunday - this contest has a great shape for ‘matrix’ betting - but it looks a bit of a minefield !
Of the 13 runners, most are relatively unexposed - and therefore, it could easily be won by a horse who puts in a personal best.
That in itself, is fine - but when half the field could do that, it makes finding an angle, tricky !
My short list for the race consists of: Spruced Up, Fauguernon, Filon D’Oudaries and Zambezi Fix.
The last 2 named are both making their handicap debuts and are from big stables.
I would expect the betting to provide a good guide for how they are likely to perform - but if you were to bet in the race without that knowledge, it would be hard not to at least save stakes on them.
The case for Spruced Up is quite obvious (she ran well in a decent race at the Dublin Racing festival) - but she’s been well found in the market - and a price of 11/4 looks too short.
As a consequence, Fauguernon is the one of most interest - from a betting perspective.
He won a big field handicap over the course at the Christmas meeting - and whilst he is 6lb higher in the weights today, that is offset by the claim of Eoin Walsh
He has run twice since that win, without success - but I’m prepared to excuse both defeats.
On the first occasion he was unsuited by the slow pace in a small field maiden (he still finish second); whilst last time out, he ran very creditably to finish 11th in the red-hot Ladbroke hurdle at the Dublin Racing festival.
He was only beaten 11 lengths that day - and ran from 4lb out of the weights.
A reproduction of that form will see him go very close this afternoon…
The question is simply whether he should be a tip - and my main issue with making him one, is the nature of the race (and his price has also crashed !).
As a consequence, he is just a Mention (though a reasonably strong one !)
4:40
Realistically, this was the only race I was ever going to have a chance of tipping in today.
It’s a Grade B handicap - with a decent first prize - and hopefully, a relatively robust market !
Poker Play has been installed the race favourite - and whilst I can understand that, I can’t help feel that a price of 13/8 in a competitive 11 runner handicap, is much too short.
He’s run really well on his last 2 outings: winning the Listowel National in September - and then finishing fourth in Paddy Power chase at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
Both are strong pieces of handicap form - but he’s been raised 10lb as a result - so the handicapper is getting to him…
Just as importantly, he is dropped 3 furlongs in trip today - and for a horse with National ambitions, that's a slightly odd move.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth taking on - and Mortal is the one who appeals most.
Unlike Poker Play he has run very poorly on his 2 outings this season.
He finished last of 5 on his debut behind Getabird at Gowran - and then didn’t do much better when switched to hurdles on his most recent outing, over the Christmas period.
As a consequence, he has questions to answer - but if he can re-find his form of last season, then he is going to take a lot of beating in this.
I tipped him last Christmas when he finished runner up to Delta Work in a grade 1 at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting - and whilst he followed that up by finishing last of 6 at the Dublin Racing festivity, he wasn’t beaten far and that was again a grade 1 event.
His only other run last season, was in the RSA at the Cheltenham festival.
He finished a perfectly creditable fifth in that race: Beaten by 3 top class horses - and Mister Malarky (who won the Betway handicap at Kempton, last weekend).
This therefore boils down to whether Joseph O’Brien has managed to get him back into peak form.
If he has, then I think he will take a bit of beating.
Huntingdon
3:55
This is probably the best race taking place in the UK today (there’s also a class 2 race at Sedgefield).
That said, it’s a 0-125 handicap - which I think says plenty about the quality of the days domestic racing !
It’s rare to see a going description of ‘heavy’ at Huntingdon - but that’s the case today.
Probably as a result, there have been 4 defectors from the original field of 13 - meaning that only 9 will go to post (at most !).
I’ll be a little surprised if either of the Alan King horses (Canelo and Big Chief Benny) relish the underfoot conditions, and therefore feel they can be taken on.
Whilst Ibleo will have his work cut out, to defy a burden of 12st 4lb.
However, that still leave 6 - which is a few too many, to consider playing in the race…
Oscar Wilde definitely has a chance - but he looks too short at 3/1.
Even If I dismiss him on the grounds of price, I am struggling to choose between the other 5 - as whilst they all have a chance, there are also question marks over them…
If forced off the fence, I would probably side with El Presente or Sir Egbert.
The former ran really well on his seasonal debut in November, over todays course and distance.
However, he fell on his next outing, early in December.
The near 3 month absence is a concern - as is his ability to act on heavy ground.
He has the potential to be the best handicapped horse in the race - but whether he will be able to show that today, is open to doubt.
Sir Egbert will be fit enough to do himself justice - and will have no issue with the ground.
The question with him, is whether he will stay the 2m4f trip.
He is a horse who can pull very hard (he wears a hood to help with this tendency) - and if he doesn’t settle, he;s unlikely to get home.
On the plus side, he’s running today on the back of a wind op - and will be wearing a first time tongue tie, and both of those might help him last home.
At the odds available, I’d be more inclined to take risk on Sir Egbert - but it would only be a small one.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Leop 4:40 Mortal 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Leop 3:35 Fauguernon (S )
Hunt 3:55 Sir Egbert (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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