2:50
This is all about Dame du Compagnie.
I really couldn't be more confident - in a 26 runner minefield of a race !!
Ofcourse the price on her is completely shot - so that needs to be borne in mind.
There is also the issue of luck in-running; worries over the ground - and the possibility that one of her rivals might show much improved form.
Hopefully I've identified the potential big improvers (I've cooled on Stratum) - and I'll save stakes on them
16 units on Dame du Compagnie at 9/2 (88)
2 units on Thosedaysaregone at 14/1 (30)
2 units on Champagne Wells at 14/1 (30)
4:50
The object of the matrix betting is to swing the odds in your favour (by having all of the likely winners on side).
I don't feel confident of doing that in this race - so it's not really a suitable approach.
However, I do think that their could be some 'value' in the short-list, so I'm prepared to spread 8 units across it.
3 units on Thyme White at 12/1 (39)
2 units on Galahad Quest at 25/1 (52)
2 units on Sacchoandvanzetti at 40/1 (82)
1 unit on Clementia at 100/1 (101)
The going at Cheltenham this afternoon, was clearly borderline heavy. There is no rain forecast for the next couple of days, so it will undoubtedly dry out - though that might not make it any easier to get through !
I suspect the ground will be sticky tomorrow - and there will also be the divets from today to deal with.
I expect that stamina will again be more important than speed…
2:50
There’s a huge field for this (26) - but I can’t give many of them a chance.
I strongly fancy the favourite - the tricky bit will be getting an acceptable price !
Dame de Compagnie (6/1) was one of the horses I put up on the ante-post thread in the forum.
That was back on Feb 13th - and at the time, she was a 20/1 shot (NRNB).
I was pretty keen on her then - and I’m even keener now !
She looks to have been layed out for the race - and I’m sure she is very well handicapped.
The only questions in my mind, are: will she cope with the ground ? - and what is the lowest acceptable price in a 26 runner handicap ?!
Stratum (12/1) won the Cesarewitch, under 6 months ago - and has a chance of completing a unique double !
He’s probably not as good over hurdles - but is relatively unexposed, so still has room for improvement.
He’s owned by Tony Bloom - so if he is fancied, he’s likely to be well backed.
Thosedaysaregone (14/1) represents the Charles Byrnes stable - and for that reason alone, needs to be considered.
He was well backed, when he won a good handicap at the Dublin Racing festival, last time - coming with a powerful late run.
He’s significantly higher in the handicap tomorrow - and has an extra 5 furlongs to cover.
However, he could be capable of overcoming both…
Champagne Well (20/1) is still a novice - but he’s a pretty decent one.
He finished second to Thyme Hill back in November - and whilst he’s been beaten twice since, that’s been over 3 miles.
I think he will benefit from the drop in trip tomorrow - particularly considering the ground.
4:50
Of all the handicaps run this week, I will have my least strongest opinion on this one !
It’s restricted to 4 year olds - and so it’s very difficult to gauge form.
Whilst I’m sure plenty of horses have been layed out for it (as is the case with most of the festival handicaps), it has a habit of being won by relative outsiders (apart from last year !)
Just be aware: If I’m not happy with prices tomorrow, I might choose to leave this race alone…
Thyme White (14/1) was decidedly useful on the flat in his native France (ran in a group race).
He’s had 3 runs for Paul Nichols - and has improved with each one.
He was runner up in the first 2 - and then won his most recent outing, in the soft at Musselburgh.
Assuming he continues to progress, then he should have a fair chance.
Galahad Quest (25/1) won the juvenile hurdle on trials day, in January.
He was very game that day, getting the better of Night Edition and Gerolamo Cordano.
Both of them re-oppose tomorrow - and at the revised weights, there should be little between the trio.
However, I suspect the Nick Williams trained runner has the greatest scope for improvement.
Sacchoandvanzetti (40/1) won 2 hurdles in the autumn. On the second occasion, he beat Pasley and Tremwedge - and the third placed horse is now rated 129.
That suggests Sacchoandvanzetti could be well handicapped off a mark of 132 (he beat him 5 lengths, giving him 7lb).
He’s only run once since then - disappointing in a grade 2 at Leopardstown over Christmas, so he will need to bounce back.
However, that’s a possibility - and he’s of some interest at a big price.
Clemencia (50/1) was formerly trained in Ireland by Brendan Duke.
He was a very impressive winner on his second run over hurdles - and was sent off at just 7/1 next time, for a grade 2 contest.
He ran disappointingly in that - and again on his latest start in the grade 1 juvenile contest at the Dublin Racing festival.
He has his first outing tomorrow for Tim Vaughan - and if he can find some improvement, he could also go well, at a big price.
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