I'll therefore handle the first 2 as usual - but just offer a couple of bets for the last one...
2:10
Ciel de Neige has been really well backed in this - which surprises me.
I had him on my original short-list - but took him off because I felt he was the weakest of JPs 3.
I'm happy to oppose him - and it also tempers my enthusiasm for JPs other runners.
Therefore my position will be built around Stolen Silver and Aramon - with savers on a few of the others...
7 units on Stolen Silver at 14/1 (105)
7 units on Aramon at 8/1 (63)
3 units on Saint Roi at 7/1 (24)
2 units on Ajdali at 14/1 (30)
1 unit on Rathhill at 28/1 (29)
4:50
I was very keen on Greaneteen - but the support for Chosen Mate is a bit concerning !
I'll still build my position around Greaneteen - and Lisp (who I think will also run very well)
At 4/1, I have to take on Chosen Mate - so will just save stakes on the 2 other Irish horses - and also add in Jan Maat, just in case !
10 units on Greaneteen at 4/1 (50)
5 units on Lisp at 7/1 (40)
2 units on Elcair du Beaufeu at 15/2 (17)
2 units on Paloma Blue at 10/1 (22)
1 unit on Jan Maat at 20/1 (21)
5:30
I would need days to solve this one !
I don't think there is any chance of figuring out what's going on with the Irish horses, until minutes before the off (I'll look to post on the Live thread !).
I think Umbrigado and Flashing Steel will be trying - it's just whether they are good enough...
2 units on Umbrigado at 12/1
2 units on Flashing Steel at 20/1
The ground today, wasn’t riding quite as quickly as I expected.
It seemed to me that it was perfect winter - not favouring anything that wanted extremes.
With just a few minor showers forecast, I would expect more of the same tomorrow.
Once again, there are 3 handicaps on the day (though that’s what I expected, this time !).
The first 2 look tackle-able - but the third looks a minefield !
2:10
JP Mcmanus has a very strong hand in this race: but so too do both Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson (the former also has a very good record in the race).
I’ll be a little surprised of the winner isn’t connected to at least one of them - quite possibly two !
Saint Roi (6/1) looks to be JPs number 1 hope.
He will be ridden by Barry Geraghty - who presumably had the choice of his 3 runners.
He’s an impossible horse to get a handle on, having only run twice over hurdles in Ireland.
He was very impressive last time, when winning at Tramore - and could easily be thrown in off a mark of 137.
Aramon (8/1) won a grade 1 last season - and also competed with credit, in a few other top class races.
Consequently, he has be of interest in a handicap - particularly as his mark (149) doesn’t seem overly harsh.
He ran a fair race last time out - and I would expect the market to advise on his chances, relative to stablemate Saint Roi (both are trained by Willie Mullins).
Ajdali (12/1) ran unplaced in last seasons Triumph hurdle.
However, he followed that up by finishing 4th in the grade 1 juvenile at Aintree.
I tipped him on his seasonal debut at Ascot in November - but he disappointed.
However, he has subsequently undergone a wind op - and if that’s been successful, he could prove to be very well handicapped on a mark of 140.
Stolen Silver (14/1) finished 6 lengths behind Ciel De Neige in the Betfair hurdle - but is 6lb better off tomorrow.
More than that, he was slowly away that day - and made up a lot of late ground.
It’s certainly not hard to see him reversing the form with Ciel de Neige.
He had strong novice form prior to that run - and should be well suited by the Cheltenham hill.
Rathhill (25/1), is another runner in the race for both JP - and Nicky Henderson.
He is quite speculative - having run only 3 times over hurdles.
However, on the second occasion, he was sent off 6/5 fav for a grade 1 race - so he is clearly well thought of.
He disappointed that day - and on his handicap debut last time (when again, he was a well backed fav).
However, he’s since undergone a wind op - and if that has the desired effect, he could be very interesting.
4:50
There may be 20 runners in this - but I’m struggling to see beyond the top 5 in the betting.
The trick will be getting the staking right…
Greanenteen (4/1) really impressed me when he won at Ascot in December - and has impressed me just as much in his 2 subsequent runs.
He’s won both of them - and has risen 18lb in the handicap as a result - but he looks a class performer.
He’s only a novice - but he’s an incredibly slick jumper.
This race tends to be a real test - but it looks to me as if he’s up to it.
Chosen Mate (6/1) is another novice - and his jumping isn’t as slick as that of Greaneteen.
On the flip side, he’s looked a relatively safe conveyance - and there is scope for improvement !
His third to Melon reads well, in light of that ones run today - and with his connections, he has to be respected.
Lisp (8/1) is yet another novice - and he too has taken well to fences.
He was a very decent hurdler - and finished fifth in last years County hurdle off a mark 1lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
His jumping has looked relatively assured - so hopefully he will be able to deal with the hustle and bustle of the race.
Eclair de Beaufeu (15/2) was a good winner at the Dublin Racing Festival last time - and doesn’t look badly treated off a mark 9lb higher.
He ran well in last years County hurdle - suggesting that he should have no issue with the course.
Like Chosen Mate, he is trained by Gordon Elliott - and therefore warrants a deal of respect.
Paloma Blue (12/1) is closely matched with Eclair de Beaufeu on their last run.
He is was beaten just over 2 lengths - but is 4lb better off - and was arguably a little unlucky not to finish closer.
He’s a horse with a bit of class - though the fact that he’s not being ridden by Rachel Blackmore, puts me off a little (she’s on Jan Maat - and I don’t particularly fancy him).
5:30
The final race of the meeting looks a bit of a nightmare.
I’ll offer a short list - but I may not get involved with it (there looks to be far too many plots - and therefore too much guesswork will be required)
Front View (4/1) finished a 6 length runner up to Envoi Allen on his hurdling debut.
Taken literally, that would have seen him placed in Wednesdays Ballymore - which means that off a mark of 139, he could be thrown in.
Ofcourse, it’s rarely that simple - though in this case it might be !
His subsequently finished second to Five O Clock, and there shouldn’t be much between the pair on that form.
Ilikedwayurthinkin (6/1) appears to have had his handicap mark looked after, with a view to this race.
He was given a very ‘sympathetic’ ride at Leopardstown last time - and I don’t expect to see the same kind of ride tomorrow (a bit like The Storyteller, today).
That said, like Front View, he is owned by JP McManus, so the betting will probably tell the story.
Escaria Ten (12/1) is one of 4 in the race for Gordon Elliott.
It’s impossible to work out his best chance - but this one looks particularly interesting.
He’s a handicap debutante - and didn’t make the original field.
However one of his stablemates was scratched - enabling him to get into the race.
Maybe that was just a coincidence - but then again !
Umbrigado (20/1) is trained by David Pipe - who has a particularly good reason for wanting to win this race (it is run in honour of his father).
He’s run with credit on both of his outings this season: not staying 3 miles first time - and finding 2 miles too short last time.
Tomorrows intermediate trip should be ideal - and first time tongue tie and cheekpieces, show intent.
Flashing Steel (16/1) looks to have been targeted at this race by Dan Skelton.
He won first time out this season at Chepstow, in what proved to be a very good race.
He has to run off a mark 8lb higher tomorrow - and is more exposed than a few of his rivals - but I’m sure he will be primed to the minute.
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