Daily write-up - Mar 10th (Cheltenham day 1)

Day 1 of the 2020 Cheltenham festival.

I wasn’t completely convinced that it would survive the recent biblical weather - or the coronavirus outbreak - but it looks at if it’s going to !

That said, the weather has managed to add a little twist to the story: there were 4mm of rain overnight, so we are left guessing (to an extent) over the state of the ground.

Ofcourse, it’s a familiar story.
Barely a weekend has passed this season, without me having to spend as much time studying the weather forecast, as the fields for the big races.
If the tipping ever gets too much, I might turn my hand to meteorology, instead !

As I suggested would be the case, I’ve gone very light on the tips.
Partially because of the uncertainty over the ground - but also because the racing is so competitive.
Whilst I’m sure I can find a load of great bets, I’m less confident that I can find a load of winners !

My plan this week, is just to officially tip, what I consider to be the best bets on the day.
I’ve no doubt there will be a lot of frustration over what might have been - but I suspect that would happen however I chose to handle things !

One other thing:
I’m not going to produce any ‘reviews of the day’ during the festival.
Cheltenham week is always very hard going (for me !) - and I’m not sure the reviews add much value (particularly if I’m not tipping very much).
They take me about an hour to produce - and I suspect that time would be better spent studying (or checking out the weather forecast !).

I’m also committed to posting on the Live threads - and simply, there are only so many hours, and so much I can do…

Anyway, enough of that - and on to my previews for the day 1 races.


Cheltenham

1:30

There is a very strong field assembled for the opening race of the meeting - and I suspect the winner will prove to be a very good horse.
However, figuring out which one it will be, is not an easy matter..!
I could give a chance to the top 8 in the betting - and generally, the market has them positioned about right.
I thought yesterday, that I might be tipping Abracadabras - but his price has contracted markedly (from 6/1 to 7/2).
The suggestion is that he is well fancied - and I can completely understand that.
I’d make him just about the most likely winner of the race - though softening ground, won’t help with his slightly suspect stamina (nor will the Cheltenham hill).
He’s a classic ‘back to lay in-running’ - as he will travel strongly through the race. However, his price is now too tight for me to consider tipping him.
Asteron Forlong and Shishkin are the 2 most obvious dangers: though the former has a tendency to jump to the right (not ideal on a left handed track !); whilst the latter still has a fair bit to prove (but could easily be top class).
I have a few doubts about Chantry House; whilst Fiddleronthehoof could have been flattered by his last time out win on exceptionally heavy ground.
I’d be less keen on supporting either of those 2.
Captain Guiness is a very interesting outsider - if he settles: whilst I could also see Edwardstone running a really big race, provided the ground isn’t too soft.

2:10

This is another very strong race - but I’m prepared to get involved with it, because I think Esprit du Large represents good value.
He’s probably not the most likely winner of the race - but he has a good chance - and that chance is under-estimated by his current odds.
As many of you will be aware, I put him up on the ante-post thread in the forum (so he’s been on my radar for a while !).
That was on the back of him winning the grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown in December.
I was really impressed with him that day, as he beat a good field, on what was only his third run over fences.
He’s clearly a horse who is improving fast - and I like the fact that he has been targeted at this race, since that point.
I also like the fact that he is a horse who gets ridden patiently.
The downside of that, is that he is a hostage to fortune (as Kalashnikov showed in this race 12 months ago !) - but there is a surfeit of pace in todays race and I’m sure that sitting off it, will prove to be the right tactic.
Many of his rivals can be given a chance - and a lot will depend on how the race pans out.
I probably see Fakir D’oudaries as the main danger - even thought he should have his work cut out to beat Notebook !
Fakir is an immaculate jumper - and round Cheltenham, that’s should prove a real asset.
Brewinupastorm and Rouge Vif, are 2 others who I could see running very well - but in truth, I would struggle to eliminate many.

2:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly…

3:30

This is without doubt an exceptionally open renewal of the Champion hurdle !
There are 17 runners - and at least 15 of them can be given a chance (and I wouldn’t totally dismiss the other 2 !).
It could well end up a race that is won by an ability to handle the ground; tactics;  jockey decisions or simply, luck in-running !
Epatante heads the betting, because she has the greatest potential.
There are numerous question marks over her (ground, course, field size) - but she has more untapped potential than her rivals.
It’s a similar situation with Pentland Hills. He won last years Triumph hurdle - but has appeared not to finish his 2 races this season. A breathing op may have sorted that out - but then again…
At their respective prices, it would be hard to side with either of them.
That said, it’s hard to find anything to side with !
I put up Cornerstone Lad on the ante-post thread in the forum - and he certainly has a chance of at least placing.
A form case can be made for him; he is the right age; will handle the ground - and can be backed at 33/1.
There will be worse bets - even if I wouldn’t be overly confident about his chances.
Of the others, then I could see both Not so Sleepy and Couer Sublime, outrunning their odds.
The former likes to front run - so could provide a good back-to-lay opportunity; whilst the latter, is a strong traveller (who has also had a wind op) - and he too could be make a good in-running trade.
Last years third, Silver Streak, again has a chance of hitting the frame: whilst Darasso is a very dark one, at a very big price !
In short, it’s impossible to suggest an angle which isn’t very speculative.
I certainly couldn’t get involved with anything in the race at a single figure price - even though one of the market leaders may well win.
I’m happy enough with a small unofficial play on Cornerstone Lad - and maybe a couple of in-running trades.
It will be fascinating to see who does come out on top - and how much more positively the winner is viewed after the race, compared to before !

4:10

The market suggests this is a match between Benie des Dieux and Honeysuckle - and it’s hard to disagree.
The former would have won the corresponding race 12 months ago, if she’d not taken an unlikely looking fall at the final flight.
She’s won her 3 races this season - and comes into this years renewal in even better from than a year ago.
She’s going to take a bit of beating (assuming she stands up, this time !).
That said, in Honeysuckle, she faces a stronger rival than anything she faced last year.
She’s unbeaten in 7 runs over hurdles - winning the grade 1 Irish Champion hurdle , last time.
She wasn’t overly impressive that day - but the step up in trip by half a mile should help her and she’s likely to give Benie a race.
Of the pair, I prefer Benie - but so does the market, so there’s not really a betting angle there.
In fact, the main interest in the race from a betting perspective, is probably trying to figure out who will finish third.
Last years first and second, Rokasana and Stormy Island, are the obvious  candidates.
However, I might be more inclined to take a chance on Lady Buttons.
She finished a well beaten 4th 12 months ago - but under-performed that day.
She’s been in really good form this season and it could be worth taking a chance that she can reverse the form with the 2 who finished in front of her.
However, whether she can get the better of either of the market leaders, is a completely different matter !

4:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped Hold the Note.
That’s because I think him the most likely winner - and he can be backed at an acceptable price.

I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - but he will have 10pts staked on him - and that effectively equates to 0.5pt.

5:30

This race has a history of going to horses with the highest official ratings.
As Lord du Mesnil and Carefully Selected are rated at least 8lb superior to all of their rivals, there is therefore an argument for focusing solely on them…
The 2 have quite different profiles:
Lord du Mesnil has progressed through handicaps this season.
He was rated 115 when he contested his first one in October - and is now rated 38lbs higher (at 153).
That is some improvement - and as the horse will have no issue with the trip or ground, then clearly it’s quite easy to make a case for him.
On the flip side, he’s unproven at the course (or even at a similar course) - and will be having his seventh run of the season, having endured a number of tough races.
In short, his preparation, has hardly been text book !
By contrast, Carefully Selected has always threatened to be a top class horse.
He finished second in the bumper at the 2018 festival - and whilst he missed most of last season, he did still make it back in time to finish third in a grade 1 novice hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
He’s won 3 novice chases this season - and would doubtless have been amongst the market leaders if he had gone for the RSA instead of this.
In short, he has a far more suitable profile for today race.
The main issue with him, appears to be his jumping. He’s a slightly clumsy horse and was a touch fortunate not to fall, last time at Naas.
If he makes a similar mistake today, he’s likely to pay the price…
Outside of the pair, half case can be made for most of the runners - but it’s hard to make a solid case for anything.
As a consequence, I suggested Ocean Cover EW in the forum. At 40/1, with 4 places, he has a fair chance of collecting.
As for the race winner, then my preference is Carefully Selected (by a fair margin) - the question is simply, what is an acceptable price..?
At 5/2, I’d be tempted: at 3/1, I’d definitely play - however his price is currently moving in the wrong direction !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Chel 2:10 Esprit du Large 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 4:50 Hold the Note 0.5pt win 9/1
Mentions

Chel 1:30 Abracadabras (C ) - best outsider Captain Guiness
Chel 3:30 Epatante (P ) - best outsider Cornerstone Lad
Chel 4:10 Benie des Dieux (P) - best outsider Lady Buttons
Chel 5:30 Carefully Selected (P ) - best outsider Ocean Cove
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions