Daily write-up - Mar 14th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Uttoxeter, Kempton, Newcastle and Fontwell in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

Years ago, there used to be virtually no racing, on the Saturday after Cheltenham (this is when it was a 3 day festival !).
The Midlands Grand National has always occupied that slot - but that was petty much it !

However, over the past few years, the Uttoxeter card has grown and evolved - and its undercard now contains a couple of other good quality handicaps.

More than that, Kempton aslo stage a card for horses who failed to make the cut for the Cheltenham handicaps.
Again, it started small - but has grown significantly over the past few years.

As a consequence, there are now 2 decent meetings - and around half a relatively dozen big races on the day - not what I really need, after a week studying for Cheltenham !

More than that, all of the races, have attracted big fields.
There were precisely 100 hundred declared runners across the days 6 main races.
That gives an average of about 16 a race - not quite at the Cheltenham handicap level, but not far off !

Anyway, it is what it is…

The ground is very different at the 2 meetings: it’s officially heavy at Uttoxeter - but good to soft at Kempton.
I therefore needed to wear 2 form studying hats !

In truth, I didn’t really have the time last night, to delve too deeply into a host of handicaps.
I would have liked to apply the matrix method to a couple of the races - but that just wasn’t possible.

Ultimately, I found just the 1 tip - at Uttoxeter.
Here is the rationale behind it - along with some thoughts on the days other main races.


Kempton

2:05

This race was originally scheduled to take place last Saturday, at Sandown.
It tends to be an excellent source of novice chasers for next season - so it’s good that it’s been saved.
However, it’s going to be a very different race to the one that would have taken place a week ago.
The going at Sandown last week would have been desperate: whilst today at Kempton, it will be on the soft side of good.
Additionally, Kempton is a flat track; whereas Sandown has a steep uphill finish.
As a consequence, whereas last weeks race would probably have been a war of attrition - todays race is likely to be more of a speed test.
That will suit favourite, McFabulous.
He would have been one to oppose a week ago - but it would be much harder to side against him, today.
In truth, even if I wanted to, I’m not sure what I would take him on with.
A week ago, Hurricane Harvey was top of my list - but that was on account of him relishing deep ground and a stern test.
I think Igor looks quite interesting, for Nicky Henderson.
He finished just a couple of lengths behind Sire de Berlais, on his penultimate run - and that form was very well franked this week !
He should also have no issue with conditions.
The other one that catches my eye, is Adicci.
He makes his handicap debut for Jonjo - and whilst he is very hard to assess, I would not be surprised to see him improve for todays step up in trip.
That said, both are too speculative to consider tipping, so it has to be a watching race…

2:40

Downtown Getaway looks the one to beat in this.
Highly tried last season (he ran in a grade 1 event at Aintree), he was a big disappointment on his seasonal debut at Newbury - but following a wind op, bounced back last time, to win a strong looking handicap over todays course and distance.
He only won by a neck that day - and has been raised 5lb for the win. Whilst in theory, that would appear more than enough - I suspect he has plenty of improvement left in him.
He will be running today off a mark of 136 - and I suspect he is a fair bit better than that…
Second favourite, Tamaroc du Mathan, is not as easy to assess.
He ran fifth last time, in the Betfair hurdle - on only his third run in the UK.
That’s top class handicap form - and he should still be competitive from a mark 3lb higher.
However, that was a strange race. There was a standing start - and a lot of late carnage.
I would question the reliability of the form…
The rest of the field can be backed at 10/1+ - and there is nothing that really stands out.
Our Power has a theoretical chance of reversing form with Downtown Getaway (he finished 3rd to him - and is 3lb better off for 3 lengths) - but the winner has far more scope.
Smarty Wild is the other one that catches my eye.
He possibly got stuck in the mud last time - but prior to that had finished a close up fourth in a very hot handicap at Sandown.
He may improve for the longer trip on better ground - and could run in to a place.

3:15

I reckon this would have been a great race for the matrix method - if I’d had time !
A 20 runner handicap chase - and there are certainly a few, close to the head of the market, that I’d be happy to oppose.
On initial inspection, the 2 who interested me most, were Garde le Victoire and My Way.
I’m a long time fan of the former - and he appears to be gradually running into form.
The concerns, are whether Kempton will suit him - and the fact that Dickie isn’t riding him (he’s chosen to go to Uttoxeter - but more of that, later !).
My Way has been contesting some very strong races (stronger than this) and will have no issue with the track.
The issues with him, are that he seems disinclined to win - and Harry Cobden rides Mercy Mercy Me.
I’d probably put both of them on a short list - but the doubts stop me from tipping either…
Other possibles for the short list would include Eamon an Cnoic (I would have to save on him !) and Good Man Pat (very well handicapped - and things will drop right for him sooner rather than later).
However, I would need longer to study the race, in order to be sure I’d not missed an angle (I’m sure one or two of the more fancied runners, must have a chance !)


Uttoxeter

2:25

When I first looked at this race, I was quite keen on Cloudy Glen.
He ran really well on his penultimate outing at Sandown, when chasing home Diese Aba.
He fell last time out at Warwick - but had been very well backed that day, in a relatively strong race.
I suspect he is sufficiently well handicapped to win a race - but this looks a particularly strong contest.
In really isn’t hard to make a case for 6 or 7 of the runners - and that makes it a difficult race to get involved with.
Cloudy Glen definitely has a chance - but I suspect he also has a bit of temperament (he ran out, 3 runs back) - so in the circumstances, I can’t bring myself to tip him.
Of his rivals, then Looks like Murt and Sams Adventure are the 2 of most interest.
Both are relatively unexposed and could easily have a few pounds in hand of their marks.
If it turns into a real war, then Midnight Tune would be very interesting: whilst Over to Sam and Aye Aye Charlie are both capable of outrunning relatively big odds.

3:00

Just over 12 months ago, Kateson was sent off at 5/4 in a grade 2 novice hurdle at Haydock. That was on the back of an excellent third placing behind Champ in the grade 1 Challow hurdle at Newbury.
The second favourite for the Haydock race, was Lisnagar Oscar…
Roll on a year - and what a difference !
In the week in which Champ won the RSA and Lisnagar Oscar was a surprise winner of the Grade 1 stayers hurdle at Cheltenham; Kateson gets to run off a mark of 135 in a class 2 handicap at Uttoxeter !
Ofcourse the reason that Kateson is running in such a relatively modest contest, is because he has subsequently been very disappointing.
In fact the last time he really showed his form, was in the race won by Champ.
Part of the reason for that, is undoubtedly because Kateson has a marked preference for soft ground - something which he has skilfully managed to dodge on most of his outings since then ! (no mean feat, considering the weather this past year)
In fairness, that wasn’t the case on his most recent outing - when he simply ran disappointingly at Ffos Las.
However, he has subsequently undergone a wind op - and if that has sorted him out, then he should go very close today.
Certainly, the ground will not be an excuse - and 2m4f should be the perfect trip.
He’s also got Dickie in the saddle. I’m sure he’ll be keen to get a winner following a disappointing Cheltenham - and it’s interesting that he is riding at Uttoxeter rather than taking a couple of decent mounts at Kempton.
Of his rivals, then Main Fact and Dostal Phil head the betting - and whilst I’ve no issue with that, there are reason for opposing both of them.
The other one I feared, was Nordano - but he was declared a non runner earlier this morning, which made deciding on the tip, a little bit easier !

3:35

I’m really surprised to see De Rasher Counter running in this…
He’s a class horse, who won the Hennessey on his penultimate outing - and finished fourth in the grade 2 Cotswold chase on his most recent outing.
He is rated 157 - and will have to carry 11st12lb today (less Ben Jones’s 3lb claim).
That’s a huge amount of weight for a horse whose forte is not stamina.
I’ll be surprised if he completes the race…
His presence compresses the handicap - and means that 5 of the runners will be carrying overweight.
In truth, I’m not sure that will matter too much - as this is likely to be a case of survival of the fittest !
Who the fittest will be however, I’m not so sure…
Truckers Lodge and Christmas in April, are the obvious ones, as they are young and proven in similar conditions: and whilst Prime Venture and Petite Power don’t have youth on their side, they too should be able to cope with the demands of the race.
Se Mo Laoch is a very interesting raider from Ireland - and again, I would expect him to handle conditions.
All this said, it is a race which feels like it is going to have an element of ‘lottery’ about it.
If forced off the fence, I would probably side with Prime Venture. He finished fourth in the race last year - and with first time blinkers, off a 4lb lower mark, I would expect him to be able to at least match that performance today.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Uttox 3:00 Kateson 0.5pt win 11/1
Mentions

Kemp 2:05 Igor (S ) & Adicci (S )
Kemp 2:40 Downtown Getaway (P )
Uttox 2:25 Cloudy Glen (O )
Uttox 3:35 Prime Venture (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions