Daily write-up - Mar 13th (Cheltenham day 4)

Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival.

The final day of another epic week.
It’s always a bit sad to reach the Friday (though in truth, it’s also a bit of a relief !) - but that’s particularly the case today, as there must be a doubt as to how much more racing will be taking place, in the short term…

The coronavirus is closing in - and I suspect it is only a matter of time before racing is forced to shut up shop (along with everything else).

Best enjoy today, then :)

There has been no overnight rain at Cheltenham - and the ground has dried out a little.
I expect it to be riding very similar to yesterday (on the soft side).

I have only tipped in a couple of races - but I’ll again be running the Live thread in the forum and hoping to point out a few more angles, that people can look to profit from:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-4-td20143.html

Anyway, that’s for later - for now, here are my thoughts on the card…


Cheltenham

1:30

Once again, the day begins with a cracking novice event.
This time it’s the Triumph hurdle - for 4 year olds - and this years renewal looks high class.
There are 4 very strong contenders - along with a supporting cast who can’t be completely dismissed.
The big 4 are: Goshen, Solo, Allmankind and Aspire Tower - and it’s not easy to  choose between them.
Goshen is probably the most talented: but he wants soft ground and has a tendency to jump to his right. I just can’t see todays conditions suiting him.
Solo has only run once in the UK - when a hugely impressive winner at Kempton.
The form doesn’t amount to much - but he could be anything.
Allmankind is very headstrong and will almost certainly lead the field.
He’s a very talented horse - but so are his rivals - and he could become a sitting duck up the home straight.
Aspire Tower looked brilliant - until he fell last time at Leopardstown.
He may have won that day - but it was far from guaranteed. He will need to bounce back this afternoon.
Of the 4, I probably like Solo best - but can see Allmankind running a huge race…
Outside of the big 4, there are a few others of interest.
A Wave of the Sea and Sir Psycho are 2 - but the one that interests me most, is Burning Victory.
She won on her hurdles debut at Fairyhouse last month, despite doing almost everything wrong.
I would expect massive improvement from that run - and if it is forthcoming, it could well put her in the mix.
I did consider tipping her (she was next on my list) - but just felt the race had a bit too much depth.
That said, at 14/1 I wouldn’t put anyone off having a small interest on her…

2:10
I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

2:50

There’s a monster field assembled for this - and I have to be honest, it’s not a race that I’ve spent a great deal of time looking at.
I’m very familiar with Thyme Hill - and he is a horse who should be well suited by the race.
He’s talented - and tough - and I suspect it will take a good one to beat him.
Certainly, I would expect him to do best of the home contingent - though whether he will be able to fend off the Irish contingent, is a different matter…
Latest Exhibition is the race favourite - on the back of his grade 1 win at the Dublin Racing festival.
He finished ahead of Fury Road and Cobblers Way, that day - and there is no real reason why either one should reverse the form.
That said, he only beat Cobblers Way 2 lengths - and Fury Road ran disappointingly - so it would be hard to be adamant that he will uphold it…
Monkfish is the potential Fly in the ointment - as he runs in this race, having only previously won a novice.
However, his connections (Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci) mean that he is unlikely to be tilting at windmills - and he really could be anything…
Of the others, then Janidil, Aione and Harry Senior, could easily outrun their odds - but I wouldn’t feel overly strongly about any of them.
If I had to get off the fence, then I would nominate Thyme Hill as the most likely winner - with Aione the most interesting outsider.

3:30

The 2020 Gold cup has attracted a really strong field - headed by last years winner, Al Boom Photo.
He was impressive 12 months ago - and whilst dual winners are rare, he definitely has a good chance of retaining his crown.
He’s only run twice since and will doubtless be at his absolute peak this afternoon.
Whatever beats him, will have to be very good…
That said, he faces some seriously strong rivals - chief amongst them Clan des Obeaux.
He’s won the last 2 renewals of the King George - and whilst he could only finish fifth in this race 12 months ago, he’s been given a different preparation this time round…
He hasn’t run since his Kempton win, so will be a fresh horse.
I’ve absolutely no doubt that Paul Nichols will have him primed to run for his life - and whilst some question his ability to act at Cheltenham, I’m not one of them !
I suspect he will run much better than he did last year - and whilst he does have 11 lengths to make up on Al Boom Photo, I think he can do it.
That said, even if he does, he’s not guaranteed to win !
Santini is a horse that I have a lot of time for - and whilst he can look a slow, if he still has a shout turning in, nothing will come home stronger.
Cases can also be made for Delta Work and Lostintransaltion - though I’m not sure the former is quite good enough to win: whilst the latter has a lot to prove, having disappointed badly, last time.
Kemboy is a very good horse - but I don’t think he’s a Cheltenham horse; and whilst I  put up Presenting Percy on the ante-post thread in the forum, that was in the expectation that the ground would be much softer.
I now think he will have his work cut out to win…
In short, I think this race will be won by Al Boom Photo, Santini or Clan Des Obeaux - and as the last named is twice the price of the first 2, he has to be the bet...

4:10

It will be a bit of a surprise (to me, at least !), if this race isn’t won by one of the top 5 in the betting - though choosing which one, isn’t easy.

Minella Rocco is an understandable favourite - with his back-class (he was second in the 2017 Gold cup) and Derek O’Connor in the saddle.
He also beat Hazel Hill last time - so appears to be back in form, following a period  in the wilderness…
Hazel Hill was an impressive winner of this race 12 months ago. However, he is now 12 - and he jumped inexplicably poorly last time (when beaten by Minella Rocco). He has a bit to prove…
Billaway is trained by Willie Mullins - and was bought to win this race.
He’s done little wrong in his 2 races for Mullins - it’s simply a question of whether he is good enough.
Shantou Flyer finished second in this race last year, after a rushed preparation.
His prep seems to have gone much smoother this year - and he must have a good chance of reversing form with Hazel Hill.
Stalker Wallace is hard to assess. He’s evidently very talented - but fragile.
If Derek O’Connor was riding him I would be very interested - but he seems to have opted for Minella Rocco (accepting the Jamie Codd isn’t a bad substitute !).

I put up Shantou Flyer on the ante-post thread in the forum, because I felt he represented good value at 10/1 in what looked a 4/5 horse race.
I stand by that - and would have made him a tip this morning, if that price had still been available (or maybe a couple of points less).
However, he has now nearly halved in price - so the ‘value’ margin has gone…
I would expect him to go very close - but there is a chance that one or two of his main rivals might be a bit too good for him on the day.

For those who want a back-to-lay at a big price, then Top Wood should give you a good run for your money - even if ultimately, he’s not quite up to winning.

4:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped both Greaneteen and Lisp.

I think the former is the likeliest winner of the race - but I also want to save on the latter.
The Irish horses are obviously dangerous - but I'm hopeful this is a race the English can win !

As always, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - If you prefer that option.

5:30

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and may suggest bets, shortly !

However, the race is a bit of a minefield - so I won't be handling it in the usual way (I'll probably just put a few units on 2 or 3 of the runners).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Chel 3:30 Clan des Obeaux 0.75pt win 15/2
Chel 4:50 Greaneteen 0.75pt win 4/1
Chel 4:50 Lisp 0.25pt win 7/1
Mentions

Chel 1:30 Solo (O ) - best outsider Burning Victory
Chel 2:50 Thyme Hill (O ) - best outsider Aione
Chel 4:10 Shantou Flyer (P ) - best outsider Top Wood
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions