It's very hard to be able to spot all of the different angles.
I do like todays races - but I'm a little concerned that I've not had the time/space to process them properly...
2:50
My main fancy is The Storyteller - the issue is the price.
Also, he faces tougher opposition than Dame de Compagnie did yesterday.
If I've read him right, I think he'll win - but there is more speculation in this one...
Tout est Permis is handicapped to run a big race: whilst Third Win and Rapper are solid options.
It's nearly impossible to fancy Rocket Lad by conventional means - but I have to save on him !
10 units on The Storyteller at 9/2 (55)
5 units on Tout est Permis at 16/1 (85)
3 units on Third Wind at 12/1 (39)
1.5 units on Rapper at 25/1 (38)
0.5 unit on Rocket Man at 66/1 (33)
4:10
I would have liked more time to process this race properly.
Simply the Betts is too short at 7/2 - the question is whether to oppose, or just save on him...
Robin des Forets is very interesting - and I nearly tipped him. He is the main angle into the race.
I'd prefer softer ground for Le Bague au Roi - and Vision des Flos. The latter is also risky (simple as !).
I want to add 1 more: Deyrann de Carjac - he was on my original list and I can't even remember why I took him off !
8 units on Robin des Forets at 16/1 (136)
5 units on Simply the Betts at 10/3 (22)
2 unit on Le Bague au Roi at 16/1 (34)
2 unit on Vision des Flos at 25/1 (52)
3 units on Deyrann de Carjac at 11/1 (36)
5:30
Similar to the previous race, I would have liked a bit more time to properly study this one.
I do like Cloth Cap - and I'm sure he is capable of winning a race of this nature off this mark, so I am happy to build a position around him.
Champagne Platinum could be anything - and whilst he is risky, he's a risk I would want to take (particularly as his price is drifting).
Diese Aba was my long range fancy for the race - and he should run well (though there isn't much in the price)
Militarian has a chance and is over-priced (though he would prefer soft ground).
I'd also like to add in Milan Native. He's unexposed and could improve for a step up in trip. I also like the jockey booking
9 units on Cloth Cap at 16/1 (153)
6 units on Champagne Platinum at 6/1 (he's 7/1 on BF) (42)
2.5 units on Diese Aba at 8/1 (18)
1 unit on Militarian at 40/1 (41)
1.5 unit on Milan Native at 18/1 (28)
I expect the ground to be riding a fair bit quicker tomorrow.
Not only has there been no rain for the past 2 days - they will be switching to the new course and consequently, fresh ground.
I would still expect it to be on the soft side - but probably no more than that.
There are 3 handicaps (one more than I originally thought !) - and they all have a decent shape.
2:50
Historically this has been the race for plot jobs !
That’s not been quite so much the case in recent years - but I still would prefer one who has hidden his light under a bushel :)
The Storyteller (11/2) looks the biggest plot job in the race !
Davy rode a masterful race to get him into sixth place in the Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas (the first 6 home, qualify for the final).
The handicapper hasn’t really played ball by giving him a mark 7lb higher than in Ireland - but he’s only 2lb higher than when bolting up in the 2018 plate.
The only issue with him, is the price…
Third Wind (11/1) has won 4 of his 5 runs over hurdles - and could still be improving.
He took the EBF final at the back end of last season - and that is always a very strong race.
He’s yet to race over tomorrows trip - but he’s been strong at the finish over half a mile shorter and may well improve for it.
Tout est Permis (20/1) is rated just 5lb lower than The Storyteller over fences - but gets 13lb from him tomorrow.
There is no doubt that he is potentially very well handicapped over hurdles - if things click.
In fairness, he’s not run badly on his 3 tries - just not as well as might have been expected.
The booking of a decent 7lb claimer (Eoin Walsh) is an interesting move.
Rapper (25/1) is a bit of value (at the moment !).
He was beaten just under 2 lengths by Skandiberg last time - but gets a 3lb pull (so there should be little between them).
He also gets Richard Johnson in the saddle - which is rarely a bad thing !
He still has potential as a stayer and I would expect him to run well.
Rocket Lad (33/1) is in danger of becoming an enigma !
I tipped him on his penultimate run at Cheltenham, when he cantered into the lead - but then just kept on cantering (whilst his rivals all ran their hearts out !).
He didn’t do much better last time at Musselburgh - and something doesn’t add up…
I would never tip him - but the matrix method will enable me to save stakes on him (as if he wins, I’ll go crazy !)
4:10
Ideally you want a prominent racer in this.
It’s a very big field - and there is rarely much room.
If you are stuck out the back, not only are you more of a hostage to fortune - you may also struggle to pick a path through.
Simply the Betts (7/2) is blindingly obvious - but can’t really be left off any short list.
On his most recent outing, he was an impressive winner of a strong novice handicap chase, over course and distance.
The runner-up was Imperial Aura - and he really franked the form on Tuesday (and in so doing, crushed the price of Simply the Betts !).
The price is way too short (and I mean, way too short) - but I’ll see how it looks in the morning…
Le Bague au Roi (14/1) is a horse that I’m very fond of.
I put her up for this race in the ante-post section on the forum - and whilst I couldn’t go mad on her, I do think she has a chance.
Certainly her style of racing will help her keep out of trouble - and she is perfectly suited to an aggressive Dicky ride.
Robin des Foret (16/1) finished third in the Caspian Caviar gold cup, at the December meeting.
He cantered into the race that day, looking sure to win - but was outstayed up the hill.
There is no doubt that he has been a weak finisher - so a recent wind op looks a very interesting move.
If it was his breathing that was stopping him from finishing his races, he should go very close.
Vision des Flos (22/1) is a potentially well handicapped horse.
He is rated 8lb higher over hurdles than he is over fences - and he is more than capable of running to his hurdle rating.
Whether he will be able to run to the same level over fences - particularly in a big field handicap - is open to debate.
It’s also a concern that Colin Tizzards horses haven’t been firing this week.
However, all of that is factored into his price - and if things do drop right for him, he has the ability to go very close.
5:30
This is another race which tends to be won by horses that have been plotted up.
The other big factor, is the booking of the main amateur jockeys - specifically, Derek O’Connor and Jamie Codd.
Champagne Platinum (9/2) ticks the 2 key boxes: he looks to have been plotted up - and he’s ridden by Derek O’Connor.
There’s a big question mark over his jumping in such a large field - but if anyone can get him round, it’ll be Derek !
He’s completely unexposed, so really could be anything - and a mark of 138 might under-estimate his ability by some margin.
Diese Aba (8/1) was a good winner, last time at Sandown.
The penny seems to have dropped with his jumping - and whilst he was raised 7lb for that win, there could easily be more to come.
Trip and ground should be fine for him, so I would expect him to run well.
Cloth Cap (20/1) is a horse who has been on my radar all season.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Chepstow - and has run well in his 2 subsequent outings.
However, I suspect he is a fair bit better on good ground - and he’s yet to encounter that this season.
There’s a chance it will be too soft for him again tomorrow - but if it isn’t he will definitely go close.
Militarian (50/1) won a fair race at Ascot, in November.
He’s been unplaced on 3 runs since - but as a result, has edged back down the handicap.
He’s now only 2lb higher than he was for the win - and he shaped with definite promise over an inadequate trip, last time.
He’s maybe more exposed than ideal - but a wind op might bring about some improvement and I would expect him to run a good race.
No comments:
Post a Comment