The abandonment of Newbury meant that it was another quiet
day, tips-wise - but as with last Saturday, it was a case of quality over
quantity…
Gino Trail was the only tip on the day - and as I’m sure
experienced readers of the write-up will have noted, I quite fancied him !
I was relatively confident that if Fergal had him back anything like his
best, then in ideal conditions, he was going to take some beating - and Fergal
is a man who rarely lets you down !
Paddy Brennan set out to make all,
on the horse - and whilst his jumping wasn’t blemish free, his attacking style
continually put pressure on his rivals.
In such extreme conditions, I
wasn’t surprised that few could live with him, and ultimately he came home a
reasonably comfortable winner.
It would be nice if all tips worked out
like that !
One thing that is worth pointing out (again), is the
BSP.
It was 5.76 - despite the fact that the final traded price in the
'live' market, was 6.2.
Once again, those taking BSP were effectively
accepting a 10% reduction on the price available moments earlier - which is
quite cost for the convenience…
Away from the tip, there were also a
couple of Mentions - and one of them, ran particularly well…
That was
Ziggy Rose, who I thought might possibly be worth a small speculative play
against the favourite, Cill Anna.
And jumping the final flight, I was wishing
I’d made Ziggy Rose more than just a Mention !
She went the best part of a
length up on Cill Anna - and traded at 1.35 in-running.
However, Harry Cobden
galvanised the favourite - who in fairness pulled out plenty, to win by half a
length.
If I’d thought on this morning, I would have suggested the ‘w/o the
fav’ market.
Ziggy Rose was 7/1 in that - which with hindsight, was a decent
bet…
Geordie B was the days other Mention - but she ran very poorly.
I
thought she would appreciate the heavy ground - but the reverse seemed to be
true and she was pulled up, early in the home straight.
The only other
race that I previewed, was the Grimthorpe.
My comments on Captain Chaos, were
that he was ‘a bit of plodder’.
If I’d reflected for a minute, I would have
realised that was exactly what was required at Doncaster, this afternoon
!
Suffice to say, he came home in splendid isolation….
TVB.
Saturday 29 February 2020
Daily write-up - Feb 29th
There are now just 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Doncaster
and Kelso.
The loss of Newbury this morning, was a big blow.
I spent a lot of time on the card yesterday, and had found 3 potentially nice tips.
Obviously I was aware of the situation with the weather - and realised there may be non runners. I didn’t however, expect the meeting to be abandoned ! (I thought Doncaster and Kelso were more vulnerable).
It really does make things very difficult (and that’s ignoring the issues with regard to actually tipping !)
Still, it is what it is - and we just have to deal with it.
Ofcourse, it does mean that tips continue to be thin on the ground (just the one today) - but issuing tips for the sake of some action, would clearly be the wrong thing to do.
Here’s the rationale behind the tip that I did issue - along with my thoughts on the days other big races at Doncaster (I don’t have a strong view on any of the Kelso races).
Doncaster
1:50
I was hoping that Geordie B might drift out to an acceptable price in this (over 4/1) - but instead his price has contracted (now 7/2 best).
I do think he is just about the most likely race winner - but he faces a potentially tough rival, in the shape of Blackjack Kentucky - along with a few longer priced rival who can be given half chances.
The argument for Geordie B is that he is an unexposed, young stayer, who is likely to relish the demands of the ground at Doncaster.
He was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Newbury in November, but it simply looked as if he lacked tactical pace on relatively quick ground and I suspect he will perform much better today.
That was also only his fifth run over hurdles, so he should still have plenty of improvident left in him.
The trouble is, a similarly strong case can be made for Blackjack Kentucky.
He too is relatively unexposed and will relish the heavy ground.
The 2 of them set a high standard - but that is reflected by the odds on offer and at 9/4 and 7/2 respectively, it’s hard to side with either one.
That said, it’s also quite hard to oppose them, with what would simply be a value call…
Cases can be made for Liosduin Bhearna, Coded Message and Flemcara, to name but 3 - though non of the cases are as strong as those that can be made for the market leaders.
In short, I can’t see a betting angle (at this point in time), so it has to be a watching race.
2:25
Regardless of the abandonment of Newbury, Gino Trail was probably my best bet of the day.
In a way, that’s a little odd, as he’s a 13 year, making his seasonal debut at the end of February !
However, he can be viewed more positively…
He actually only started racing ‘properly’ when he was 10 - and hasn’t got that many miles on his clock.
Since, that point, he has consistently shown himself to be a high class handicapper - perfectly suited by 2 miles in very soft ground (the conditions, he will get this afternoon).
The high light of his career, was probably a second in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival, 2 seasons back.
That run was off a mark of 152 - today he races off a mark of 146.
He only raced 3 times last season - but on his seasonal debut, was second to Dolos at Sandown.
He was beaten 4 lengths that day - but is 17lb better off at the weights with him today.
Whilst it’s true that Dolos may have improved since then - and Gino Trail regressed - that is still a big weight turn around in just 12 months.
His second run last season wasn’t bad either: he failed by 4 lengths to give 10lb to Magic Saint. If the 2 were to meet again now, Magic Saint would have to give him 9lb…
In short, Gino Trail is a very well handicapped horse - assuming he’s not gone into decline.
At 13 I would be a little concerned about that possibility (even acknowledging his relatively low mileage) - however the fact that he has his debut run for Fergal O’Brien today, suggests that connections believe there is still plenty of life in him.
It’s not often you see a 13 year old changing stables - and a move to Fergal is rarely a bad one !
Most of his rivals can be given a chance of sorts - but non particularly stands out.
Destrier and Katpoli are the 2 I’d be most concerned about - though the former might struggle with the ground; whilst the latter is taking a big step up in class.
Simply, I think this race is Gino Trails to lose - and if Fergal has got him back close to his best, then I don’t think he’ll lose it…
3:00
On official ratings, it’s impossible to see beyond Cill Anna in this.
She is between 7lb and 20lb superior to her rivals on official ratings - and more than that, she still has plenty of scope for improvement !
On the flip side, she isn’t proven over todays trip (which will take a bit of getting) and she has been priced up at 4/6…
Clearly, she can’t be supported - the question is whether she could be opposed…
Officially, I think not - though I am quite interest in Ziggy Rose…
She is yet to win over hurdles (in 5 attempts) - and is the lowest rated runner in the field.
In a way, that makes her quite interesting, as connections are risking ruining her handicap mark, by running against some much higher rated rivals.
Ofcouse, what they are after, is ‘black type’ (which you get for being placed in a listed event) - as that will make her very valuable as a broodmare.
If she finishes a distant fourth, then they will doubtless be happy - and that makes backing her a bit tricky.
However, her last time out second placing to Legends Gold, isn’t bad form - and if the ground does turn the race into a lottery, then anything is possible…
Furthermore, her trainer, Noel Williams, has an excellent record at Doncaster; whilst her jockey, Paddy Brennan, can generally be counted on to give his horse every chance !
In short, she might be worth a tiny speculative interest, at around 20/1…
3:35
There have been numerous withdrawals from this race (2 on account of the ground; and 2 because of a double declaration), and they have made it nearly impossible to get involved.
Trying to assess it, is like trying to hit a moving target !
Initially, I quite liked the look of Yalltari - but I’m not entirely convinced that he will appreciate a slog in the mud.
That won’t be an issue for Captain Chaos or Worthy Farm: but the former is a bit of plodder; whilst the latter is taking a step up in class.
Worthy Farm looks just about the most likely winner - but at 5/2, he’s easy enough to pass…
Cesar et Rosalie is probably the most attractive potential bet in the race, at around 8/1.
However, I’ve no idea whether he will be able to cope with the ground - and he does seem best in a particular set of circumstances (chasing a strong pace).
His stamina is also unproven - and he unshipped his jockey last time - so he’s hardly got the most robust of profiles !
As it’s impossible to write off the chances of the other 3 (and with limited confidence that the goal posts won’t move again !), this has to be a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead (ie. a win for Gino Trail :) )
TVB.
Tips
Donc 2:25 Gino Trail 1pt win 7/1
Mentions
Donc 1:50 Geordie B (P )
Donc 3:00 Ziggy Rose (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
The loss of Newbury this morning, was a big blow.
I spent a lot of time on the card yesterday, and had found 3 potentially nice tips.
Obviously I was aware of the situation with the weather - and realised there may be non runners. I didn’t however, expect the meeting to be abandoned ! (I thought Doncaster and Kelso were more vulnerable).
It really does make things very difficult (and that’s ignoring the issues with regard to actually tipping !)
Still, it is what it is - and we just have to deal with it.
Ofcourse, it does mean that tips continue to be thin on the ground (just the one today) - but issuing tips for the sake of some action, would clearly be the wrong thing to do.
Here’s the rationale behind the tip that I did issue - along with my thoughts on the days other big races at Doncaster (I don’t have a strong view on any of the Kelso races).
Doncaster
1:50
I was hoping that Geordie B might drift out to an acceptable price in this (over 4/1) - but instead his price has contracted (now 7/2 best).
I do think he is just about the most likely race winner - but he faces a potentially tough rival, in the shape of Blackjack Kentucky - along with a few longer priced rival who can be given half chances.
The argument for Geordie B is that he is an unexposed, young stayer, who is likely to relish the demands of the ground at Doncaster.
He was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Newbury in November, but it simply looked as if he lacked tactical pace on relatively quick ground and I suspect he will perform much better today.
That was also only his fifth run over hurdles, so he should still have plenty of improvident left in him.
The trouble is, a similarly strong case can be made for Blackjack Kentucky.
He too is relatively unexposed and will relish the heavy ground.
The 2 of them set a high standard - but that is reflected by the odds on offer and at 9/4 and 7/2 respectively, it’s hard to side with either one.
That said, it’s also quite hard to oppose them, with what would simply be a value call…
Cases can be made for Liosduin Bhearna, Coded Message and Flemcara, to name but 3 - though non of the cases are as strong as those that can be made for the market leaders.
In short, I can’t see a betting angle (at this point in time), so it has to be a watching race.
2:25
Regardless of the abandonment of Newbury, Gino Trail was probably my best bet of the day.
In a way, that’s a little odd, as he’s a 13 year, making his seasonal debut at the end of February !
However, he can be viewed more positively…
He actually only started racing ‘properly’ when he was 10 - and hasn’t got that many miles on his clock.
Since, that point, he has consistently shown himself to be a high class handicapper - perfectly suited by 2 miles in very soft ground (the conditions, he will get this afternoon).
The high light of his career, was probably a second in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival, 2 seasons back.
That run was off a mark of 152 - today he races off a mark of 146.
He only raced 3 times last season - but on his seasonal debut, was second to Dolos at Sandown.
He was beaten 4 lengths that day - but is 17lb better off at the weights with him today.
Whilst it’s true that Dolos may have improved since then - and Gino Trail regressed - that is still a big weight turn around in just 12 months.
His second run last season wasn’t bad either: he failed by 4 lengths to give 10lb to Magic Saint. If the 2 were to meet again now, Magic Saint would have to give him 9lb…
In short, Gino Trail is a very well handicapped horse - assuming he’s not gone into decline.
At 13 I would be a little concerned about that possibility (even acknowledging his relatively low mileage) - however the fact that he has his debut run for Fergal O’Brien today, suggests that connections believe there is still plenty of life in him.
It’s not often you see a 13 year old changing stables - and a move to Fergal is rarely a bad one !
Most of his rivals can be given a chance of sorts - but non particularly stands out.
Destrier and Katpoli are the 2 I’d be most concerned about - though the former might struggle with the ground; whilst the latter is taking a big step up in class.
Simply, I think this race is Gino Trails to lose - and if Fergal has got him back close to his best, then I don’t think he’ll lose it…
3:00
On official ratings, it’s impossible to see beyond Cill Anna in this.
She is between 7lb and 20lb superior to her rivals on official ratings - and more than that, she still has plenty of scope for improvement !
On the flip side, she isn’t proven over todays trip (which will take a bit of getting) and she has been priced up at 4/6…
Clearly, she can’t be supported - the question is whether she could be opposed…
Officially, I think not - though I am quite interest in Ziggy Rose…
She is yet to win over hurdles (in 5 attempts) - and is the lowest rated runner in the field.
In a way, that makes her quite interesting, as connections are risking ruining her handicap mark, by running against some much higher rated rivals.
Ofcouse, what they are after, is ‘black type’ (which you get for being placed in a listed event) - as that will make her very valuable as a broodmare.
If she finishes a distant fourth, then they will doubtless be happy - and that makes backing her a bit tricky.
However, her last time out second placing to Legends Gold, isn’t bad form - and if the ground does turn the race into a lottery, then anything is possible…
Furthermore, her trainer, Noel Williams, has an excellent record at Doncaster; whilst her jockey, Paddy Brennan, can generally be counted on to give his horse every chance !
In short, she might be worth a tiny speculative interest, at around 20/1…
3:35
There have been numerous withdrawals from this race (2 on account of the ground; and 2 because of a double declaration), and they have made it nearly impossible to get involved.
Trying to assess it, is like trying to hit a moving target !
Initially, I quite liked the look of Yalltari - but I’m not entirely convinced that he will appreciate a slog in the mud.
That won’t be an issue for Captain Chaos or Worthy Farm: but the former is a bit of plodder; whilst the latter is taking a step up in class.
Worthy Farm looks just about the most likely winner - but at 5/2, he’s easy enough to pass…
Cesar et Rosalie is probably the most attractive potential bet in the race, at around 8/1.
However, I’ve no idea whether he will be able to cope with the ground - and he does seem best in a particular set of circumstances (chasing a strong pace).
His stamina is also unproven - and he unshipped his jockey last time - so he’s hardly got the most robust of profiles !
As it’s impossible to write off the chances of the other 3 (and with limited confidence that the goal posts won’t move again !), this has to be a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead (ie. a win for Gino Trail :) )
TVB.
Tips
Donc 2:25 Gino Trail 1pt win 7/1
Mentions
Donc 1:50 Geordie B (P )
Donc 3:00 Ziggy Rose (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Sunday 23 February 2020
Daily write-up - Feb 23rd
With fixtures for the forthcoming week, being lost at an
alarming rate (tomorrows meetings at Plumpton and Carlisle have already been
abandoned; along with the one planned for Leicester on Tuesday), I was a little
surprised that there are apparently no issues at Fontwell.
The going stick reading is is 3.7 (which is just a couple of notches higher than I have for my bath !) - but the going description is ‘soft - heavy in places’
I suspect it will be heavy in quite a lot of places !
The meeting at Naas had to survive an early inspection - but survive it did.
Again, the ground will be very heavy…
The big race of the day takes place at Fontwell: here are my thoughts on it - along with the 2 chases on the Naas card.
Fontwell
3:20
This is a race in which I’ve done very well, historically.
I was therefore hoping I might be able to get involved again today - but just 5 runners were declared - and only 4 have a realistic chance.
That wouldn’t stop me from getting involved - but it does make it harder…
Thomas Darby has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst I might have some issues with his price of even money, it’s hard not to agree that he’s the most likely race winner.
Having performed below expectations in a couple of early season novice chases, he was returned to hurdles last time and was very impressive in despatching Song for Someone at Ascot.
The two of them pulled well clear of their rivals - and the runner up franked the form in no uncertain terms yesterday.
Based on that run, Thomas Darby will take a lot of beating today - and as a consequence, I’d be disinclined to take him on.
The only caveat is that last season, it was stated that he wanted decent ground.
That seems to have changed this season, to him wanting soft ground !
He’s certainly going to get the latter, so if the ‘new’ preference is wrong, he could be in trouble !
The ground won’t be an issue for either Quel Destin or Monsieur Lecoq - and they are both credible rivals.
The only trouble is, they are a few pounds inferior to Thomas Darby, so if he runs to form, he will beat them.
The small field won't suit William Henry; whilst Chesterfield shouldn’t be good enough.
As a consequence, this look a pretty straightforward race to call:
Thomas Darby should beat Quel Destin and Monsieur Lecoq, with William Henry and Chesterfield in rear.
The only trouble is, the small field will increase the importance of tactics - whilst the very heavy ground will increase the lottery element.
In the circumstances, I couldn’t support Thomas Darby - I just couldn’t oppose him either…
Naas
2:10
It’s interesting that the 2 chases on the card have been moved to be the first 2 races (presumably because of ground issues).
Ornua was an obvious one to take on in this (due to the ground) - but he has been withdrawn this morning, leaving a field of just 5.
Cadmium is another who is unlikely to appreciate the heavy going - so expect him to continue to drift in price.
Hardline has the form to win - but he is inconsistent and may be better suited by an extra half mile.
Whilst Any Second Now is a 3 miler - so should find this too sharp (unless it turns into an absolute war).
As a consequence, Articulum and Castlegrace Paddy look the 2 to focus on:
Despite recent form figures of ‘FUF’, Articulum is the one I like best.
He will have no issue with the ground and will appreciate dropping back in trip (he ran over 5 furlongs further, last time).
He finished third in last seasons Arkle, so has the form to be a player in a race of this nature; and whilst he is the oldest member of the field, he is relatively unexposed over fences.
He receives weight from most of his rivals - and that could prove crucial in the heavy ground.
If his jumping holds up, he will take a bit of beating.
Castlegrace Paddy is the ‘value’ call in the race (at 6/1).
He had a very good novice campaign - but has struggled recently in open company.
That said, he has been mixing it with the best, so this is a step down in class for him.
He’ll have no issue with the ground or the trip - but will need to have come on from his seasonal debut at the beginning of this month (when he was well beaten).
I would expect him to have done so - but the late betting will probably confirm if that’s the case !
2:40
In theory, this would be a suitable race for the ‘matrix’ betting (which I use for the BFHPs and the midweek races) - though it would be a brave man who was prepared to take on an Irish novice handicap chase !
Suffice to say, I would expect a few of the runners to show much improved form - and for the betting to be quite enlightening !!
As a consequence, it’s probably a race best watched - though I still have a short-list of runners which I will be watching most closely:
Top of the list, is An Fraoch Mor.
He has run really well in a couple of decent novice chases this season - and his opening mark of 130, looks perfectly fair.
I suspect he still has improvement in him and he looks to be the one to beat.
Chavi Artist is the next one of interest.
He ran well last time, in a strong open handicap chase at the Dublin Racing festival.
Prior to that he has won a handicap at Punchestown - so whilst he is relatively exposed, he does seem to be progressive.
Valdieu looks the best value bet in the race.
He won a fair race on his handicap debut last time - and whilst he was raised 7lb for that effort, that will be offset by the claim of his jockey, Eoin Walsh.
Cooldine Bog is the final one on the short list.
I’d be really interested in him - if the ground were better.
He was running well last summer - and showed definite promise last time on his return from a break.
However, all of his from is on decent ground - and I’ll be a little surprised if he handles todays surface.
I'm sure a few of you will want to know, so if I were to get involved with the race, then I would look to spread my ‘20 units’ as follows:
8 units on An Fraoch Mor at 11/2 (52)
8 units on Valdieu at 14/1 (120)
3 units on Chavi Artist at 10/1 (33)
1 unit on Cooldine Bog at 20/1 (21)
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today !
TVB.
The going stick reading is is 3.7 (which is just a couple of notches higher than I have for my bath !) - but the going description is ‘soft - heavy in places’
I suspect it will be heavy in quite a lot of places !
The meeting at Naas had to survive an early inspection - but survive it did.
Again, the ground will be very heavy…
The big race of the day takes place at Fontwell: here are my thoughts on it - along with the 2 chases on the Naas card.
Fontwell
3:20
This is a race in which I’ve done very well, historically.
I was therefore hoping I might be able to get involved again today - but just 5 runners were declared - and only 4 have a realistic chance.
That wouldn’t stop me from getting involved - but it does make it harder…
Thomas Darby has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst I might have some issues with his price of even money, it’s hard not to agree that he’s the most likely race winner.
Having performed below expectations in a couple of early season novice chases, he was returned to hurdles last time and was very impressive in despatching Song for Someone at Ascot.
The two of them pulled well clear of their rivals - and the runner up franked the form in no uncertain terms yesterday.
Based on that run, Thomas Darby will take a lot of beating today - and as a consequence, I’d be disinclined to take him on.
The only caveat is that last season, it was stated that he wanted decent ground.
That seems to have changed this season, to him wanting soft ground !
He’s certainly going to get the latter, so if the ‘new’ preference is wrong, he could be in trouble !
The ground won’t be an issue for either Quel Destin or Monsieur Lecoq - and they are both credible rivals.
The only trouble is, they are a few pounds inferior to Thomas Darby, so if he runs to form, he will beat them.
The small field won't suit William Henry; whilst Chesterfield shouldn’t be good enough.
As a consequence, this look a pretty straightforward race to call:
Thomas Darby should beat Quel Destin and Monsieur Lecoq, with William Henry and Chesterfield in rear.
The only trouble is, the small field will increase the importance of tactics - whilst the very heavy ground will increase the lottery element.
In the circumstances, I couldn’t support Thomas Darby - I just couldn’t oppose him either…
Naas
2:10
It’s interesting that the 2 chases on the card have been moved to be the first 2 races (presumably because of ground issues).
Ornua was an obvious one to take on in this (due to the ground) - but he has been withdrawn this morning, leaving a field of just 5.
Cadmium is another who is unlikely to appreciate the heavy going - so expect him to continue to drift in price.
Hardline has the form to win - but he is inconsistent and may be better suited by an extra half mile.
Whilst Any Second Now is a 3 miler - so should find this too sharp (unless it turns into an absolute war).
As a consequence, Articulum and Castlegrace Paddy look the 2 to focus on:
Despite recent form figures of ‘FUF’, Articulum is the one I like best.
He will have no issue with the ground and will appreciate dropping back in trip (he ran over 5 furlongs further, last time).
He finished third in last seasons Arkle, so has the form to be a player in a race of this nature; and whilst he is the oldest member of the field, he is relatively unexposed over fences.
He receives weight from most of his rivals - and that could prove crucial in the heavy ground.
If his jumping holds up, he will take a bit of beating.
Castlegrace Paddy is the ‘value’ call in the race (at 6/1).
He had a very good novice campaign - but has struggled recently in open company.
That said, he has been mixing it with the best, so this is a step down in class for him.
He’ll have no issue with the ground or the trip - but will need to have come on from his seasonal debut at the beginning of this month (when he was well beaten).
I would expect him to have done so - but the late betting will probably confirm if that’s the case !
2:40
In theory, this would be a suitable race for the ‘matrix’ betting (which I use for the BFHPs and the midweek races) - though it would be a brave man who was prepared to take on an Irish novice handicap chase !
Suffice to say, I would expect a few of the runners to show much improved form - and for the betting to be quite enlightening !!
As a consequence, it’s probably a race best watched - though I still have a short-list of runners which I will be watching most closely:
Top of the list, is An Fraoch Mor.
He has run really well in a couple of decent novice chases this season - and his opening mark of 130, looks perfectly fair.
I suspect he still has improvement in him and he looks to be the one to beat.
Chavi Artist is the next one of interest.
He ran well last time, in a strong open handicap chase at the Dublin Racing festival.
Prior to that he has won a handicap at Punchestown - so whilst he is relatively exposed, he does seem to be progressive.
Valdieu looks the best value bet in the race.
He won a fair race on his handicap debut last time - and whilst he was raised 7lb for that effort, that will be offset by the claim of his jockey, Eoin Walsh.
Cooldine Bog is the final one on the short list.
I’d be really interested in him - if the ground were better.
He was running well last summer - and showed definite promise last time on his return from a break.
However, all of his from is on decent ground - and I’ll be a little surprised if he handles todays surface.
I'm sure a few of you will want to know, so if I were to get involved with the race, then I would look to spread my ‘20 units’ as follows:
8 units on An Fraoch Mor at 11/2 (52)
8 units on Valdieu at 14/1 (120)
3 units on Chavi Artist at 10/1 (33)
1 unit on Cooldine Bog at 20/1 (21)
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today !
TVB.
Review of the day
A combination of abandonments; the proximity to Cheltenham -
and some ‘obvious’ races, meant that it was a relatively quiet day.
I ended up tipping in just 2 races: and whilst there was no joy in the big race at Kempton, I did manage to find the winner of the big race at Fairyhouse.
That was Acapella Bourgeois, who I delayed tipping until 10:30, in the hope that the markets might be a bit stronger.
Well I guess they may have been, but they still crumbled as soon as I issued the tip !
Within 5 mins, 3/1 was 5/2 - and 20 mins later, it was 2/1.
Considering it was a short priced horse, in a grade 3 race, it does make me wonder…
Realistically, I couldn’t have tipped much later - but it still wasn’t late enough.
The horse did drift during the afternoon.
I backed it at 3.8 on BF at around 3:00 - and it was 5/2 on the opening show.
However, it was then backed again - and was eventually returned with an SP of 15/8.
That was very similar to it’s BSP of 2.85 - however it was trading on BF at 3.5, just 2 mins before the off.
More than that, it’s final trade price on BF was 3.1 - so the BSP was a fair bit shorter.
That’s because there was a lot of money asking to be matched at BSP (nearly twice as much as on the fav.).
That has the effect of reducing the BSP - which is part of the reason why I recommend taking a price in the live market, 5 mins before the off, if at all possible…
Anyway…
In the race itself, Acapella got the relatively uncontested lead I had hoped for - and whilst he jumped better than at Gowran, he was hardly slick over his fences.
In fact, he looked an unlikely winner, jumping the third last - but he does gallop and clearly appreciated the heavy ground - and ultimately, he just outstayed his rivals.
It didn’t feel like a great win - but it was a win - and at the moment, every one of those is most welcome..!
Double Shuffle and Adrien du Pont were the 2 other tips on the day - and whilst they both ran their best races of the season, I was still a bit disappointed by them.
Double Shuffle ran a bit of a nothing race - travelling reasonably well, until pressure was applied - and then gradually fading.
Adrien briefly looked as if he might get involved in the finish - but he found little when the tempo increased.
Both will doubtless drop a few more pounds - but I wouldn’t be in any rush to support them, in the short term.
In addition to the tips, there were also a couple of Mentions on the day.
Master Tommytucker really should have won the novice chase - but instead, he hit the deck - again !
He cruised through the race and was a couple of lengths clear and still going strongly, when he met the third last on the wrong stride - and couldn’t sort his legs out.
If I had tipped him (and that was a possibility), I would have been gutted, as the race was at his mercy (he traded at 1.2 in-running).
Still, jumping is the name of the game - and if you can’t jump, you aren’t going to win many races…
It was similar story with Benson - the days other Mention.
He had unshipped his jockey last time - and he made another severe blunder today.
It was too early in the race to say what effect it had - other than to ensure he wasn’t going to win !
I ended up opting out of the BFHP race, because I couldn’t see a way to stake it - but ultimately, it made little difference.
The race was won by Downtown Getaway - and my plan was to save on him, whatever path I took.
There was always a chance that he would show himself a very well handicapped horse - and whilst he didn’t win by much, he still did it quite well.
He just got the better of Palmers Hill, who was the one I was prepared to take on - with Our Power and Polish filling the 2 other places.
Both of them were also on the short-list - so I had read the race quite well - but it would still have been hard to profit from it…
TVB.
I ended up tipping in just 2 races: and whilst there was no joy in the big race at Kempton, I did manage to find the winner of the big race at Fairyhouse.
That was Acapella Bourgeois, who I delayed tipping until 10:30, in the hope that the markets might be a bit stronger.
Well I guess they may have been, but they still crumbled as soon as I issued the tip !
Within 5 mins, 3/1 was 5/2 - and 20 mins later, it was 2/1.
Considering it was a short priced horse, in a grade 3 race, it does make me wonder…
Realistically, I couldn’t have tipped much later - but it still wasn’t late enough.
The horse did drift during the afternoon.
I backed it at 3.8 on BF at around 3:00 - and it was 5/2 on the opening show.
However, it was then backed again - and was eventually returned with an SP of 15/8.
That was very similar to it’s BSP of 2.85 - however it was trading on BF at 3.5, just 2 mins before the off.
More than that, it’s final trade price on BF was 3.1 - so the BSP was a fair bit shorter.
That’s because there was a lot of money asking to be matched at BSP (nearly twice as much as on the fav.).
That has the effect of reducing the BSP - which is part of the reason why I recommend taking a price in the live market, 5 mins before the off, if at all possible…
Anyway…
In the race itself, Acapella got the relatively uncontested lead I had hoped for - and whilst he jumped better than at Gowran, he was hardly slick over his fences.
In fact, he looked an unlikely winner, jumping the third last - but he does gallop and clearly appreciated the heavy ground - and ultimately, he just outstayed his rivals.
It didn’t feel like a great win - but it was a win - and at the moment, every one of those is most welcome..!
Double Shuffle and Adrien du Pont were the 2 other tips on the day - and whilst they both ran their best races of the season, I was still a bit disappointed by them.
Double Shuffle ran a bit of a nothing race - travelling reasonably well, until pressure was applied - and then gradually fading.
Adrien briefly looked as if he might get involved in the finish - but he found little when the tempo increased.
Both will doubtless drop a few more pounds - but I wouldn’t be in any rush to support them, in the short term.
In addition to the tips, there were also a couple of Mentions on the day.
Master Tommytucker really should have won the novice chase - but instead, he hit the deck - again !
He cruised through the race and was a couple of lengths clear and still going strongly, when he met the third last on the wrong stride - and couldn’t sort his legs out.
If I had tipped him (and that was a possibility), I would have been gutted, as the race was at his mercy (he traded at 1.2 in-running).
Still, jumping is the name of the game - and if you can’t jump, you aren’t going to win many races…
It was similar story with Benson - the days other Mention.
He had unshipped his jockey last time - and he made another severe blunder today.
It was too early in the race to say what effect it had - other than to ensure he wasn’t going to win !
I ended up opting out of the BFHP race, because I couldn’t see a way to stake it - but ultimately, it made little difference.
The race was won by Downtown Getaway - and my plan was to save on him, whatever path I took.
There was always a chance that he would show himself a very well handicapped horse - and whilst he didn’t win by much, he still did it quite well.
He just got the better of Palmers Hill, who was the one I was prepared to take on - with Our Power and Polish filling the 2 other places.
Both of them were also on the short-list - so I had read the race quite well - but it would still have been hard to profit from it…
TVB.
BFHP - Feb 22nd
I’m struggling to see a way to play this race, using the
short-list…
Backing all 5 horses at best bookmakers prices - is an odds on shot.
Even backing them on the exchanges, where you can generally get better prices, it’s close to even money.
In fairness, I think that’s about right - but I can’t see much margin…
What I had hoped would happen, was that Downtown Getaway, Palmers Hill or Polish would be strongly supported - causing ‘value’ to appear elsewhere.
I would then have sided with Our Power, Howling Milan or Earth Moor - and covered stakes on Downtown and Polish.
However, that’s not the case - and non of the 3 are particularly attractively priced.
Our Power and Howling Milan can currently be backed at 14 & 12 on BF - and I’ve done that.
I’ve saved my stakes on Downtown and Polish at 6 and 9 respectively.
I wouldn’t put anyone off doing that (or similar) - but I’m not prepared to recommend taking the significantly lower prices that are currently available with the bookmakers.
TVB.
I expected to be covering either the Betway handicap chase or the Eider chase - but neither race has attracted a massive field, so I’ve opted for the opener at Kempton, instead…
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
There’s a slim chance that I might also tip in the race - and if that happens, I’ll cover the rationale in the write-up…
Kempton 12:40
I’m assuming the ground at Kempton tomorrow, will be soft - though much better than has recently tended to be the case.
I think that the field for this race, can be narrowed down to around half a dozen (from 17) - the only issue is, that the ones I fancy are all close to the head of the market.
Still, the prices will doubtless shift a little - and it will then simply be a question of balancing how much I fancy each runner, with the odds on offer…
Downtown Getaway is impossible to leave off any short-list.
He was sent off 15/8 fav for a better handicap than this, on his seasonal debut back in November. He was pulled up that day - but has since undergone wind surgery.
If that’s done the trick, then he could be thrown in off a mark of 131.
Our Power travelled really well last time, when making his debut for Nigel Twiston Davies over tomorrow's course and distance.
He didn’t get home that day - but may have needed the run.
He’s been dropped 2lb and should go close tomorrow.
Howling Milan was unlucky not to win a better handicap than this, last time.
That was at Newbury and he was 3 lengths clear, when falling at the last.
To add insult to injury, he got a 3lb rise for his effort - though if he had won, he would have got more.
Polish has only run twice over hurdles - finishing runner up on his stable debut and then winning, next time at Ludlow.
Kempton is a similar track - so the question is simply whether he is well handicapped.
That's impossible to say - but he’s hard to leave out of calculations.
Earth Moor is progressing nicely - winning on his seasonal debut and then finishing runner up to a progressive rival.
He's edging up the handicap - so will need to have improved again - but that’s quite likely to have happened.
Backing all 5 horses at best bookmakers prices - is an odds on shot.
Even backing them on the exchanges, where you can generally get better prices, it’s close to even money.
In fairness, I think that’s about right - but I can’t see much margin…
What I had hoped would happen, was that Downtown Getaway, Palmers Hill or Polish would be strongly supported - causing ‘value’ to appear elsewhere.
I would then have sided with Our Power, Howling Milan or Earth Moor - and covered stakes on Downtown and Polish.
However, that’s not the case - and non of the 3 are particularly attractively priced.
Our Power and Howling Milan can currently be backed at 14 & 12 on BF - and I’ve done that.
I’ve saved my stakes on Downtown and Polish at 6 and 9 respectively.
I wouldn’t put anyone off doing that (or similar) - but I’m not prepared to recommend taking the significantly lower prices that are currently available with the bookmakers.
TVB.
I expected to be covering either the Betway handicap chase or the Eider chase - but neither race has attracted a massive field, so I’ve opted for the opener at Kempton, instead…
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
There’s a slim chance that I might also tip in the race - and if that happens, I’ll cover the rationale in the write-up…
Kempton 12:40
I’m assuming the ground at Kempton tomorrow, will be soft - though much better than has recently tended to be the case.
I think that the field for this race, can be narrowed down to around half a dozen (from 17) - the only issue is, that the ones I fancy are all close to the head of the market.
Still, the prices will doubtless shift a little - and it will then simply be a question of balancing how much I fancy each runner, with the odds on offer…
Downtown Getaway is impossible to leave off any short-list.
He was sent off 15/8 fav for a better handicap than this, on his seasonal debut back in November. He was pulled up that day - but has since undergone wind surgery.
If that’s done the trick, then he could be thrown in off a mark of 131.
Our Power travelled really well last time, when making his debut for Nigel Twiston Davies over tomorrow's course and distance.
He didn’t get home that day - but may have needed the run.
He’s been dropped 2lb and should go close tomorrow.
Howling Milan was unlucky not to win a better handicap than this, last time.
That was at Newbury and he was 3 lengths clear, when falling at the last.
To add insult to injury, he got a 3lb rise for his effort - though if he had won, he would have got more.
Polish has only run twice over hurdles - finishing runner up on his stable debut and then winning, next time at Ludlow.
Kempton is a similar track - so the question is simply whether he is well handicapped.
That's impossible to say - but he’s hard to leave out of calculations.
Earth Moor is progressing nicely - winning on his seasonal debut and then finishing runner up to a progressive rival.
He's edging up the handicap - so will need to have improved again - but that’s quite likely to have happened.
Daily write-up - Feb 22nd
There are just 2 NH meetings today: at Kempton and Fairyhouse
Newcastle failed its early morning inspection, joining Chepstow as another casualty of the rain…
It’s been 2 weeks since we’ve had any decent weather - and that’s made things very difficult from a betting/tipping perspective.
The problem is that you’ve no idea where you stand: whether meetings will be taking place and if they do take place, how the ground will ride and which horses will actually run.
Non of this is good news, when you are committing to a position on a race, relatively early…
In truth, the impact on this weekend hasn’t been as great as it could have been.
The start of Cheltenham is now just over 2 weeks away, and most of the better horses have already had their final prep runs.
In fairness, Kempton have put on a decent card, which has attracted some reasonable animals.
That said, most of the races can be quickly narrowed down to 2 or 3, which tends to result in limited betting opportunities.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up tipping in just the one race at Kempton.
However, I’ve also got a tip at Fairyhouse - and there’s the BFHP race as well - so a few things to keep you amused.
Here is my rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main Kempton races.
Kempton
12:40
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
1:15
It’s not easy to see beyond Master Tommytucker and Commanche Red in this - however with each priced up at 9/4, it’s also not easy to see a betting angle !
Of the pair, I prefer the claims of Master Tommytucker.
In fact, if he’d been available at 3/1, I would have taken a risk and tipped him.
That’s despite the fact that he’s fallen in 2 of his 3 chase start to date !
More positively, he did win the other one - and he may have won the 2 in which he fell, if he’d managed to stay on his feet.
That has to be a worry - though there is little doubt that he’s got a serious engine when his jumping does hold up.
On his most recent outing, he was still in with a chance when falling in the grade 1 Kauto Star chase; whilst prior to that, he beat Who Dares Wins over todays course, despite conceding race fitness.
It’s unlikely that one will be able to turn the tables today, particularly as the extra 2 furlongs should better suit Master Tommytucker.
Commanche Red has a very different profile, as he is stepping up to grade 1 company, having won a handicap last time,.
That was over todays course and distance, and he was very impressive in beating a pair of subsequent winners.
He appears to be a big improver - but Master Tommytucker is likely to prove a very strong opponent.
Of the others, then Southfield Stone can be given a chance on his hurdles form of last season; whilst Erick Le Rouge has strong track form and was impressive when winning a fair handicap, on his most recent outing.
Either one could take advantage if the market leaders happen to disappoint.
Even the 2 outsiders are both moderately interesting, which means this can only be a watching race…
1:50
This is an impossible race to get involved with, as the 2 market leaders are both having their first runs over hurdles in the UK.
Solo, makes his debut for Paul Nichols, having been trained previously by Guillame Macaire in France.
He ran twice at Auteuil: Finishing runner up on his debut - before going one better on his most recent outing in November.
He may well be very good - but there is no way of accurately assessing that…
It’s possible to get a bit more of a handle on Fujimoto Flyer.
She’s trained in Ireland by Emmet Mullins: and after winning on her hurdling debut at Kilarney, then won a listed mares race at Auteuil.
Again, it’s nno easy to assess the worth of the form - though the fact it was a listed race, suggests it should have been a reasonable standard.
In truth, non of their opponents look particularly talented - which explains why the pair of them are so short in the betting (9/4 and 6/4 respectively).
Tremwedge and Fantastic Ms Fox are the most exposed runners in the field: but both have official handicap ratings of just 126 - which shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough to take a grade 2 contest.
The other 5 runners are less exposed - but non of them appears to have massive potential.
As a consequence, the race does look to be at the mercy of one of the market leaders…
I doubt I will get involved with it myself - but if I did, I would be most likely to try and find a way of siding with Earl of Harrow.
He showed some promise on his only run over hurdles - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to step up sufficiently to take a race of this nature, if the favourites do disappoint, then he looks to have as good a chance as anything, of capitalising…
2:25
The Kingwell hurdle has been saved from last weekends Wincanton card, which was lost to the rain.
Wincanton and Kempton are relatively similar tracks (both flat, right-handed), so the biggest difference today, compared to last weekend, will be the state of the ground.
There are only 6 runners in the race - and the betting looks to have them positioned about right.
Ch’tibello, Song for Someone and Elgin look the most likely - with the caveat that Elgin is returning after a long absence, so his fitness has to be taken on trust.
He has a preference for decent ground, so should benefit from the switch of venue - but he’s hard to support at 4/1, when you can only guess how ready he is…
Ignoring the prices, I make Song for Someone just about the most likely winner.
That said, a relatively quick 2 miles around Kempton, is likely to prove a bare minimum for him.
Ch’tibello will almost certainly run his race - and may be good enough to win. I’d expect him to go very close…
Of the others, then Diego de Charmil has a chance - if he can translate his chasing form back to hurdles.
Again however, a price of 5/1 doesn’t really encourage taking a risk.
It’s harder to make a case for the 2 outsiders - though I wouldn’t totally rule out either of them.
In short, it’s another race where he market seems to have everything in the right place (based on the known information), and with no particular angle for supporting any of the runners, a watch brief is again advised…
3:02
Buzz has been installed the market leader for this - and that’s hard to disagree with.
He was very decent on the flat (rated 98) and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He’ll need to step up on the form of those wins, if he is to complete the hatrick today - but the sharp Kempton track should suit him and he looks the one to beat.
Cases can be constructed for Highway one o Two, West Cork, Kid Commando and Faire Part Sivola - but plenty of guesswork is required, and I can’t see a particular angle for supporting any of them (one may exist - but I can’t see what it is !).
If I were to take on the favourite, it would either be with Benson - or Bathsheba Bay.
The case for the former, is the more obvious, as he was in the process of running a massive race on his hurdling debut at Sandown, when he unshipped his jockey at the second last.
That was in a listed race - and if the form could be taken literally, he would be the one to beat.
However, it was still a little way out when he capsized - and the ground that day was desperate.
I suspect that suited him - and may have shown him in a flattering light.
Certainly, his previous bumper form didn’t suggest he was capable of such a run - so whilst there is a slight temptation to take a risk on him, I think he is better as a Mention.
The case for Bathsheba Bay is even more tenuous - as he’s shown himself about a stone shy of the level required to win this race.
It therefore strikes me as very strange that Paul Nichols is even running him.
He’s not one to tilt at windmills, so he must think the horse capable of running a very big race.
Presumably the idea is to get his rating up - and thereby give him a chance of competing in one of the big end of season handicaps.
He could probably achieve that by going close - and not winning - but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on: both in the race - and in the betting before hand.
3:35
This is the big race of the day and it’s attracted a competitive field.
That said, I’m quite keen on the chances of the 2 horses who were in the the frame in the corresponding race, 12 months ago.
That race was won by Walt: with Double Shuffle a length behind, and Adrien du Pont 4 lengths further back in third.
Adrien du Pont is 2lb better off with Double Shuffle today - and whilst that shouldn't be sufficient to reverse the form, he had a poor passage through the race that day - and is also the younger horse, by a couple of years (so has greater scope for improvement).
More importantly however, both horses are running off marks significantly lower than they did in last years race: Double Shuffle, 4lb lower - and Adrien du Pont, 6lb lower.
This years contest appears no stronger than last years renewal, so it strikes me that they are very much the ones to beat - assuming they bounce back to form.
And superficially it looks as if that could be an issue for them both - as collectively, they have run 7 times since then, and not featured.
However, I think that is misleading - as neither horse has encountered ideal conditions in the past 12 months.
Double Shuffle has run 4 times since last years race - but they were in; the Gold Cup; over the Aintree fences; on his seasonal debut and on unsuitable heavy ground.
It’s easy enough to excuse all 4 efforts.
Adrien du Pont ran in the same races - excluding the Gold cup - and can be excused under-performing, for the same reasons…
Both horses will be far better suited by todays test of 3miles on decent ground, on a flat right handed track - and I fully expect them to show vastly improved form.
Of the others, then Whatmore, Dashing Park and Highway one o One are the 3 who interest me most.
They all have scope for improvement - though equally, have yet to prove themselves at this level.
Of the trio, then Highway one o One is perhaps the most interesting - and certainly looks over-priced at 18/1.
For the tips however,I’ll stick with Double Shuffle and Adrien du Pont - and hope that they can rewind the clock !
Fairyhouse
4:02
This is the main race on the Fairyhouse card - and whilst there are only 6 runners, it is still a tricky enough puzzle.
That said, I think it is worth giving Acapella Bourgeois a chance to atone for letting us down last time, in the Thystes chase.
I fancied him that day - but he made numerous jumping errors and in the circumstances, did well to finish sixth.
He’ll need to improve on that effort if he is to win today - but provided he jumps better, then I would expect him to do just that.
My hope is that he will benefit from the much smaller field - and possibly get an uncontested lead.
If that does happen, then I think he will take a lot of beating.
Certainly, his best ever performance was when he made all at Navan 3 years ago - and destroyed Road to Respect by 30 lengths.
If he can get anywhere near that level of form today, he won’t be beaten !
The other big positive for him, is the state of the ground.
It really can’t be too soft for him, so todays very heavy ground, should suit him perfectly.
In terms of his rivals, then Alpha des Obeaux looks the one to beat.
He is rated 6lb superior to Acapella - and whilst I’m not totally convinced about that, he could still be hard to beat.
That said, Alpha des Obeaux is almost certainly being trained with a Grand National in mind (either the English or Irish) - so may not be going flat out to win today.
That could also be the case with Bellshill and Pleasant Company: whilst Voix de Reve finished miles behind Acapella at Tramore and Sub Lieutenant is making his seasonal debut.
In short, there are reasons why all of Acapella rivals either won’t be at the top of their game, or shouldn’t be good enough to beat him.
I think this race is his to lose - provided Danny Mullins rides him aggressively and he gets his jumping right.
Fingers crossed !
Newcastle failed its early morning inspection, joining Chepstow as another casualty of the rain…
It’s been 2 weeks since we’ve had any decent weather - and that’s made things very difficult from a betting/tipping perspective.
The problem is that you’ve no idea where you stand: whether meetings will be taking place and if they do take place, how the ground will ride and which horses will actually run.
Non of this is good news, when you are committing to a position on a race, relatively early…
In truth, the impact on this weekend hasn’t been as great as it could have been.
The start of Cheltenham is now just over 2 weeks away, and most of the better horses have already had their final prep runs.
In fairness, Kempton have put on a decent card, which has attracted some reasonable animals.
That said, most of the races can be quickly narrowed down to 2 or 3, which tends to result in limited betting opportunities.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up tipping in just the one race at Kempton.
However, I’ve also got a tip at Fairyhouse - and there’s the BFHP race as well - so a few things to keep you amused.
Here is my rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main Kempton races.
Kempton
12:40
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
1:15
It’s not easy to see beyond Master Tommytucker and Commanche Red in this - however with each priced up at 9/4, it’s also not easy to see a betting angle !
Of the pair, I prefer the claims of Master Tommytucker.
In fact, if he’d been available at 3/1, I would have taken a risk and tipped him.
That’s despite the fact that he’s fallen in 2 of his 3 chase start to date !
More positively, he did win the other one - and he may have won the 2 in which he fell, if he’d managed to stay on his feet.
That has to be a worry - though there is little doubt that he’s got a serious engine when his jumping does hold up.
On his most recent outing, he was still in with a chance when falling in the grade 1 Kauto Star chase; whilst prior to that, he beat Who Dares Wins over todays course, despite conceding race fitness.
It’s unlikely that one will be able to turn the tables today, particularly as the extra 2 furlongs should better suit Master Tommytucker.
Commanche Red has a very different profile, as he is stepping up to grade 1 company, having won a handicap last time,.
That was over todays course and distance, and he was very impressive in beating a pair of subsequent winners.
He appears to be a big improver - but Master Tommytucker is likely to prove a very strong opponent.
Of the others, then Southfield Stone can be given a chance on his hurdles form of last season; whilst Erick Le Rouge has strong track form and was impressive when winning a fair handicap, on his most recent outing.
Either one could take advantage if the market leaders happen to disappoint.
Even the 2 outsiders are both moderately interesting, which means this can only be a watching race…
1:50
This is an impossible race to get involved with, as the 2 market leaders are both having their first runs over hurdles in the UK.
Solo, makes his debut for Paul Nichols, having been trained previously by Guillame Macaire in France.
He ran twice at Auteuil: Finishing runner up on his debut - before going one better on his most recent outing in November.
He may well be very good - but there is no way of accurately assessing that…
It’s possible to get a bit more of a handle on Fujimoto Flyer.
She’s trained in Ireland by Emmet Mullins: and after winning on her hurdling debut at Kilarney, then won a listed mares race at Auteuil.
Again, it’s nno easy to assess the worth of the form - though the fact it was a listed race, suggests it should have been a reasonable standard.
In truth, non of their opponents look particularly talented - which explains why the pair of them are so short in the betting (9/4 and 6/4 respectively).
Tremwedge and Fantastic Ms Fox are the most exposed runners in the field: but both have official handicap ratings of just 126 - which shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough to take a grade 2 contest.
The other 5 runners are less exposed - but non of them appears to have massive potential.
As a consequence, the race does look to be at the mercy of one of the market leaders…
I doubt I will get involved with it myself - but if I did, I would be most likely to try and find a way of siding with Earl of Harrow.
He showed some promise on his only run over hurdles - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to step up sufficiently to take a race of this nature, if the favourites do disappoint, then he looks to have as good a chance as anything, of capitalising…
2:25
The Kingwell hurdle has been saved from last weekends Wincanton card, which was lost to the rain.
Wincanton and Kempton are relatively similar tracks (both flat, right-handed), so the biggest difference today, compared to last weekend, will be the state of the ground.
There are only 6 runners in the race - and the betting looks to have them positioned about right.
Ch’tibello, Song for Someone and Elgin look the most likely - with the caveat that Elgin is returning after a long absence, so his fitness has to be taken on trust.
He has a preference for decent ground, so should benefit from the switch of venue - but he’s hard to support at 4/1, when you can only guess how ready he is…
Ignoring the prices, I make Song for Someone just about the most likely winner.
That said, a relatively quick 2 miles around Kempton, is likely to prove a bare minimum for him.
Ch’tibello will almost certainly run his race - and may be good enough to win. I’d expect him to go very close…
Of the others, then Diego de Charmil has a chance - if he can translate his chasing form back to hurdles.
Again however, a price of 5/1 doesn’t really encourage taking a risk.
It’s harder to make a case for the 2 outsiders - though I wouldn’t totally rule out either of them.
In short, it’s another race where he market seems to have everything in the right place (based on the known information), and with no particular angle for supporting any of the runners, a watch brief is again advised…
3:02
Buzz has been installed the market leader for this - and that’s hard to disagree with.
He was very decent on the flat (rated 98) and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He’ll need to step up on the form of those wins, if he is to complete the hatrick today - but the sharp Kempton track should suit him and he looks the one to beat.
Cases can be constructed for Highway one o Two, West Cork, Kid Commando and Faire Part Sivola - but plenty of guesswork is required, and I can’t see a particular angle for supporting any of them (one may exist - but I can’t see what it is !).
If I were to take on the favourite, it would either be with Benson - or Bathsheba Bay.
The case for the former, is the more obvious, as he was in the process of running a massive race on his hurdling debut at Sandown, when he unshipped his jockey at the second last.
That was in a listed race - and if the form could be taken literally, he would be the one to beat.
However, it was still a little way out when he capsized - and the ground that day was desperate.
I suspect that suited him - and may have shown him in a flattering light.
Certainly, his previous bumper form didn’t suggest he was capable of such a run - so whilst there is a slight temptation to take a risk on him, I think he is better as a Mention.
The case for Bathsheba Bay is even more tenuous - as he’s shown himself about a stone shy of the level required to win this race.
It therefore strikes me as very strange that Paul Nichols is even running him.
He’s not one to tilt at windmills, so he must think the horse capable of running a very big race.
Presumably the idea is to get his rating up - and thereby give him a chance of competing in one of the big end of season handicaps.
He could probably achieve that by going close - and not winning - but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on: both in the race - and in the betting before hand.
3:35
This is the big race of the day and it’s attracted a competitive field.
That said, I’m quite keen on the chances of the 2 horses who were in the the frame in the corresponding race, 12 months ago.
That race was won by Walt: with Double Shuffle a length behind, and Adrien du Pont 4 lengths further back in third.
Adrien du Pont is 2lb better off with Double Shuffle today - and whilst that shouldn't be sufficient to reverse the form, he had a poor passage through the race that day - and is also the younger horse, by a couple of years (so has greater scope for improvement).
More importantly however, both horses are running off marks significantly lower than they did in last years race: Double Shuffle, 4lb lower - and Adrien du Pont, 6lb lower.
This years contest appears no stronger than last years renewal, so it strikes me that they are very much the ones to beat - assuming they bounce back to form.
And superficially it looks as if that could be an issue for them both - as collectively, they have run 7 times since then, and not featured.
However, I think that is misleading - as neither horse has encountered ideal conditions in the past 12 months.
Double Shuffle has run 4 times since last years race - but they were in; the Gold Cup; over the Aintree fences; on his seasonal debut and on unsuitable heavy ground.
It’s easy enough to excuse all 4 efforts.
Adrien du Pont ran in the same races - excluding the Gold cup - and can be excused under-performing, for the same reasons…
Both horses will be far better suited by todays test of 3miles on decent ground, on a flat right handed track - and I fully expect them to show vastly improved form.
Of the others, then Whatmore, Dashing Park and Highway one o One are the 3 who interest me most.
They all have scope for improvement - though equally, have yet to prove themselves at this level.
Of the trio, then Highway one o One is perhaps the most interesting - and certainly looks over-priced at 18/1.
For the tips however,I’ll stick with Double Shuffle and Adrien du Pont - and hope that they can rewind the clock !
Fairyhouse
4:02
This is the main race on the Fairyhouse card - and whilst there are only 6 runners, it is still a tricky enough puzzle.
That said, I think it is worth giving Acapella Bourgeois a chance to atone for letting us down last time, in the Thystes chase.
I fancied him that day - but he made numerous jumping errors and in the circumstances, did well to finish sixth.
He’ll need to improve on that effort if he is to win today - but provided he jumps better, then I would expect him to do just that.
My hope is that he will benefit from the much smaller field - and possibly get an uncontested lead.
If that does happen, then I think he will take a lot of beating.
Certainly, his best ever performance was when he made all at Navan 3 years ago - and destroyed Road to Respect by 30 lengths.
If he can get anywhere near that level of form today, he won’t be beaten !
The other big positive for him, is the state of the ground.
It really can’t be too soft for him, so todays very heavy ground, should suit him perfectly.
In terms of his rivals, then Alpha des Obeaux looks the one to beat.
He is rated 6lb superior to Acapella - and whilst I’m not totally convinced about that, he could still be hard to beat.
That said, Alpha des Obeaux is almost certainly being trained with a Grand National in mind (either the English or Irish) - so may not be going flat out to win today.
That could also be the case with Bellshill and Pleasant Company: whilst Voix de Reve finished miles behind Acapella at Tramore and Sub Lieutenant is making his seasonal debut.
In short, there are reasons why all of Acapella rivals either won’t be at the top of their game, or shouldn’t be good enough to beat him.
I think this race is his to lose - provided Danny Mullins rides him aggressively and he gets his jumping right.
Fingers crossed !
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 3:35 Adrien du Pont 0.5pt win 11/2
Kemp 3:35 Double Shuffle 0.5pt win 10/1
Fairy 4:02 Acapella Bourgeois 1pt win 3/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:15 Master Tommytucker (P )
Kemp 3:02 Benson (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 3:35 Adrien du Pont 0.5pt win 11/2
Kemp 3:35 Double Shuffle 0.5pt win 10/1
Fairy 4:02 Acapella Bourgeois 1pt win 3/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:15 Master Tommytucker (P )
Kemp 3:02 Benson (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Sunday 16 February 2020
Review of the day
I was a bit surprised to see the meetings at both Ascot and
Haydock, run through to completion today…
I was pretty sure that at least one of them (probably Ascot) would fall foul of the weather, at some point - but that wasn’t the case.
In fairness, conditions did get progressively worse throughout the afternoon, and if the last races had been the first, I doubt either meeting would have gone ahead - but that wasn’t the case.
There can be little doubt that the uncertainty over the weather, was playing on my mind, first thing this morning - and definitely affected my decision to only tip in two races.
Red Indian was the first tip to run - and he was well backed at Ascot (went off 7/2 fav).
However, he jumped poorly and finished well beaten.
It was definitely a race for the battle hardy - and I suspect it was no coincidence that the 4 oldest/most experienced horses, filled the first 4 places.
Certainly they don't come much tougher than the winner, Ballyoptic
Somewhat ironically, I had quite fancied him for the Haydock race in which I tipped The Two Amigos and Yala Enki.
I was a little surprised when he was sent to Ascot instead - but figured it would improve the chances of the other two !
It probably did - and both ran well.
They were in a group of 4, which broke away from the field rounding the home turn - but they were the first of the quartet beaten.
It did look as if Lord du Mesnil was going to win the race. However he was run down close home by Smooth Stepper - an 11 year old, carrying bottom weight.
No coincidence, I suspect…
There were also a couple of Mentions on the day.
Danny Whizzbang ran well at Ascot - but after racing freely, didn’t get home.
The race was won by Copperhead. I could have been interested in him at his SP of 6/1 (nearly 8/1 on BF) - but he was 3/1 this morning, which made limited appeal.
Gerolamo Cordano was the days other Mention - but he ran poorly.
He too was a big drifter - but this time the market was spot on…
With both The Worlds End and Cyrname under-performing, their respective races where won by Emitom and Riders onthe storm - though it’s hard to judge the merit of their victories (in the circumstances).
Finally, I nailed the days BFHP !
My short-list of 5 contained the first 3 home - and whilst I ditched the runner up when suggesting the bets this morning, I was never going to ditch the winner !
Nordano hacked up 16 lengths at 8/1 - and made me wonder why I hadn’t tipped him…
I’m sure plenty of you were on him - but the official P&L could still have done with the boost !
Still it was another positive result for the ‘matrix’ method - which must now be around 200 units up, if you include the midweek racing.
It’s a bit too early to say it’s the future - but the initial signs are certainly very promising…
TVB.
I was pretty sure that at least one of them (probably Ascot) would fall foul of the weather, at some point - but that wasn’t the case.
In fairness, conditions did get progressively worse throughout the afternoon, and if the last races had been the first, I doubt either meeting would have gone ahead - but that wasn’t the case.
There can be little doubt that the uncertainty over the weather, was playing on my mind, first thing this morning - and definitely affected my decision to only tip in two races.
Red Indian was the first tip to run - and he was well backed at Ascot (went off 7/2 fav).
However, he jumped poorly and finished well beaten.
It was definitely a race for the battle hardy - and I suspect it was no coincidence that the 4 oldest/most experienced horses, filled the first 4 places.
Certainly they don't come much tougher than the winner, Ballyoptic
Somewhat ironically, I had quite fancied him for the Haydock race in which I tipped The Two Amigos and Yala Enki.
I was a little surprised when he was sent to Ascot instead - but figured it would improve the chances of the other two !
It probably did - and both ran well.
They were in a group of 4, which broke away from the field rounding the home turn - but they were the first of the quartet beaten.
It did look as if Lord du Mesnil was going to win the race. However he was run down close home by Smooth Stepper - an 11 year old, carrying bottom weight.
No coincidence, I suspect…
There were also a couple of Mentions on the day.
Danny Whizzbang ran well at Ascot - but after racing freely, didn’t get home.
The race was won by Copperhead. I could have been interested in him at his SP of 6/1 (nearly 8/1 on BF) - but he was 3/1 this morning, which made limited appeal.
Gerolamo Cordano was the days other Mention - but he ran poorly.
He too was a big drifter - but this time the market was spot on…
With both The Worlds End and Cyrname under-performing, their respective races where won by Emitom and Riders onthe storm - though it’s hard to judge the merit of their victories (in the circumstances).
Finally, I nailed the days BFHP !
My short-list of 5 contained the first 3 home - and whilst I ditched the runner up when suggesting the bets this morning, I was never going to ditch the winner !
Nordano hacked up 16 lengths at 8/1 - and made me wonder why I hadn’t tipped him…
I’m sure plenty of you were on him - but the official P&L could still have done with the boost !
Still it was another positive result for the ‘matrix’ method - which must now be around 200 units up, if you include the midweek racing.
It’s a bit too early to say it’s the future - but the initial signs are certainly very promising…
TVB.
BFHP - Feb 15th
Nordano is my main fancy in the race - and I did consider
tipping him (the weather uncertainty dissuaded me).
I think Eden du Houx is worth a saver (he’s around 6/1 on the exchanges).
Malaya and Distingo are both weak in the betting - which puts me off them.
By contrast, Prudhomme and Myplaceatmidnight have both been well supported (suggesting I might have gone for the wrong ones).
Fleur D’Irlandaise is a crazy price (60 on the exchanges) and has to be worth a risk.
10 units on Nordano at 8/1
3 units on Eden du Houx at 9/2
5 units on Fleur D’Irlandaise at 40/1
2 units on Prudhomme at 10/1
Just to confirm, these are not official tips.
TVB
I suspect it is unlikely that racing will go ahead at Ascot tomorrow - but you never know !
The class 2 handicap hurdle at 3:00, is the most suitable ‘BFHP’ of the day - I’ve therefore produced a 'short-list' for it, this evening.
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
There’s a slim chance that I might also tip in the race - and if that happens, I’ll cover the rationale in the write-up…
Ascot 3:00
The ground is likely to be very soft tomorrow (assuming racing goes ahead).
An ability to handle the likely underfoot conditions - and stay the trip - will be key.
Eden de Houx could be significantly better than his opening handicap mark of 130.
Certainly, his bumper form last season, was excellent - and he whilst he only just won his maiden last time, that may still have been a fair performance.
He is mainly about potential - but seems well regarded by his stable.
Nordano is interesting because he’s a juvenile racing in open company.
His recent runs have been against Triumph hurdle contenders - so whilst he’s been well beaten, he’s not been disgraced.
He receives a 10lb weight for age allowance - which is significant.
He also looks likely to benefit from tomorrows step up in trip.
Malaya won last season Imperial cup from a mark just 2lb lower than she races off tomorrow.
She’s disappointed since then - but has had a 2 month break since her last outing.
She will have no issues with tomorrows ground - though the trip is an unknown.
Distingo looked to be returning to from last time, at Sandown.
He travelled well to the final flight that day, before weakening out of things.
He’s been dropped 3lb for the effort - and is now potentially well handicapped.
The concern is the trip - but if he does stay, he could go close.
Fleur Irlandaise won a similar handicap at Kempton in November - and has since performed with credit, in 3 graded races.
She drops back into handicap company tomorrow - and whilst there is a question mark concerning the likely ground, her handicap mark looks feasible, as she is only 5lb higher than at Kempton.
I think Eden du Houx is worth a saver (he’s around 6/1 on the exchanges).
Malaya and Distingo are both weak in the betting - which puts me off them.
By contrast, Prudhomme and Myplaceatmidnight have both been well supported (suggesting I might have gone for the wrong ones).
Fleur D’Irlandaise is a crazy price (60 on the exchanges) and has to be worth a risk.
10 units on Nordano at 8/1
3 units on Eden du Houx at 9/2
5 units on Fleur D’Irlandaise at 40/1
2 units on Prudhomme at 10/1
Just to confirm, these are not official tips.
TVB
I suspect it is unlikely that racing will go ahead at Ascot tomorrow - but you never know !
The class 2 handicap hurdle at 3:00, is the most suitable ‘BFHP’ of the day - I’ve therefore produced a 'short-list' for it, this evening.
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
There’s a slim chance that I might also tip in the race - and if that happens, I’ll cover the rationale in the write-up…
Ascot 3:00
The ground is likely to be very soft tomorrow (assuming racing goes ahead).
An ability to handle the likely underfoot conditions - and stay the trip - will be key.
Eden de Houx could be significantly better than his opening handicap mark of 130.
Certainly, his bumper form last season, was excellent - and he whilst he only just won his maiden last time, that may still have been a fair performance.
He is mainly about potential - but seems well regarded by his stable.
Nordano is interesting because he’s a juvenile racing in open company.
His recent runs have been against Triumph hurdle contenders - so whilst he’s been well beaten, he’s not been disgraced.
He receives a 10lb weight for age allowance - which is significant.
He also looks likely to benefit from tomorrows step up in trip.
Malaya won last season Imperial cup from a mark just 2lb lower than she races off tomorrow.
She’s disappointed since then - but has had a 2 month break since her last outing.
She will have no issues with tomorrows ground - though the trip is an unknown.
Distingo looked to be returning to from last time, at Sandown.
He travelled well to the final flight that day, before weakening out of things.
He’s been dropped 3lb for the effort - and is now potentially well handicapped.
The concern is the trip - but if he does stay, he could go close.
Fleur Irlandaise won a similar handicap at Kempton in November - and has since performed with credit, in 3 graded races.
She drops back into handicap company tomorrow - and whilst there is a question mark concerning the likely ground, her handicap mark looks feasible, as she is only 5lb higher than at Kempton.
Daily write-up - Feb 15th
There will possibly be 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Haydock and Ascot in the
UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland - but then again…!
As I said in my email earlier this morning, the weather conditions have made it almost impossible to get involved today.
I’m used to having to deal with going changes, due to late rain - but in addition to that, there is a question mark over whether the racing will actually take place today (and I can see decisions being made very late).
That in itself isn’t really the issue: the issue is which horses will run, if the meetings do go ahead.
I’m sure there will be plenty of non runners, as horses struggle to get to the courses: or as connections decide that conditions aren’t suitable.
In short, the racing may descend into a lottery… (or it may not !)
In the circumstances, I felt my only options were either to keep tips light - or not tip at all.
I eventually decided on the former - and have issued tips in just 2 of the days races.
However, I’ve previewed a few more, and there are a couple of Mentions, who a worth keeping an eye on.
There is also the BFHP race - and I will send out suggested bets for that before midday.
So if the racing does go ahead, then at least you have my view on things (as they stood this morning !)
Haydock
2:05
It’s hard to look beyond the 2 market leaders in this…
The Worlds End sets the race standard - and is the default winner.
Prior to this season, he had been a bit of an under-achiever.
Great things were expected of him as a novice chaser, last season - but he didn’t deliver.
He’s been sent back over hurdles this campaign - and has won 2 of his 3 races.
His latest victory was in a grade 1 at Ascot - and whilst that wasn’t a strong event and he was gifted the race by L’ami Serge, it was still a fair performance.
Certainly, if he repeats that level of form, I would expect him to be able to take care of todays opposition - with the possible exception of Emitom…
He was a very good novice hurdler last season - and the expectation was that he could be a contender in the staying hurdle division this season.
However, he suffered an injury and was only able to make his debut at Cheltenham, on new years day.
He looked as if he needed the run that day, and he ultimately finished last behind Summerville Boy.
I’m sure he will perform much better this afternoon - but he will need to !
The question, is whether connections will want him subjected to a really hard race, this afternoon.
I suspect he may be the best horse in the race - but in order to win, he’s likely to have to get into a battle with The Worlds End, in the Haydock mud.
If he does that, then that is likely to be the end of his Stayers hurdle chances…
That potentially hidden agenda, makes this an impossible race to play in - though I suspect the late betting moves will clarify things (as they so often do !).
2:40
This is another near impossible race to play, due to the presence of French challenge, Rockadenn.
It’s very rare to a French trained runner contesting a race such as this - and he’s impossible to assess.
Form figures of 1111 suggest he could be quite useful - but how his form compares to the UK runners, is anyones guess…
Sir Physo heads the betting - but I wouldn’t be interested in him at around 5/4.
He did well to win his most recent race - but prior to that, had been beaten in a handicap off a mark of 117.
He may well have improved between the 2 runs - but there is definitely a question mark over how good he is.
In fact, if I were to get involved with the race, I would be far more interested Gerolamo Cordano.
He was a slightly unlucky third at Cheltenham on his most recent outing, and that form looks solid (and sets a reasonable standard).
That said, in absolute terms, you would expect a race of this nature to be won by a better horse than him.
With the other 3 runners looking quite limited, that logic takes you back to Rockadeen - and back to guessing.
As a consequence, it has to be a watching race…
3:15
The final declarations for this race were released on Thursday and when I looked at it, I came to the conclusion that Yala Enki was just about the most likely race winner.
He won the corresponding contest 2 years ago - and whilst he is now 11lb higher in the handicap, there can be little doubt that heavy ground at Haydock, suit the horse well.
He’s now 10 - and whilst the shouldn’t be improving, a switch this season to Paul Nichols, may well have eeked a few extra pounds out of him.
He was a 6/1 shot on Thursday - and that seemed fine - however, he has been seriously backed since then and at 7/2 this morning, all of the margin has gone in his price.
I know I said I would tip more horses that I fancied - but this is a relatively open race and simply, you have to draw the line somewhere.
I’m prepared to have him as a saver (and hope his price drifts a little) - but for the main bet in the race, I’m switching to The Two Amigos.
He clashed with Yala Enki (and Elegant Escape), in the Welsh National, over the Christmas period.
There was little between the 3 horses that day - and whilst The Two Amigos came out worse; he did lead to the second last - and is a couple of pounds better off today.
The slightly shorter trip will also help him - and simply, it’s impossible to say which of the 3, will come out on top this afternoon.
Therefore, as The Two Amigos can be backed at twice the price of Yala Enki (and 3pts bigger than Elegant Escape), he has to be the bet.
His case will be helped by the fact that he has a relatively light weight - whilst racing prominently in these kind of races, also tends to be an advantage.
With One for Arthur wanting better ground, Geronimo is probably the most interesting of the others.
Ascot
1:50
This is a fascinating little race - but nearly impossible to call.
It’s unlikely that Alsa Mix will be good enough to win - but victory for any of the other 5 would come as no great surprise.
The market favours Sam Brown - which is understandable, as he was a good winner last time and has plenty of potential.
However, I wouldn’t back anything in this race at 9/4.
Pym is next in the market - and whilst I do have reservations about him, I can’t deny that he keeps on winning (and seemingly keeps on improving).
That said, I slightly prefer the chances of third fav, Copperhead, who receives weight from all of his main rivals.
The issue with him however, is there is absolutely no way of knowing how good he is.
He was impressive last time - but that was in a class 3 handicap off a mark of 134.
That’s very different to running in a grade 2 event…
If I were to get involved with the race, it would be with either Two for Gold or Danny Whizzbang.
It strikes me that both could be over-priced at around 7/1 - though I can’t be confident about that !
Of the pair, I prefer Danny Whizzbang.
He’s very unexposed - but managed to win a grade 2 event on his chasing/seasonal debut.
He disappointed a little next time - but that was in grade 1 company and he did suffer some mid-race interference.
He has a 5lb penalty to carry, which isn’t ideal - but he still strikes me as the value option in an open looking race.
2:25
It’s not hard to argue that Red Indian is a well handicapped horse - and in ideal conditions, I think he warrant supporting in this.
Just over 12 months ago, he finished fourth in the grade 1 novice chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting; behind Le Bague au Roi, Topofthegame and Santini.
All 3 of those are proven grade 1 performers - and whist Red India was beaten upwards of 10 lengths, a rating of 141 suggest he could be very well handicapped.
That feeling was confirmed on his seasonal debut at Haydock, when he was backed into 5/1 jt fav for a competitive race.
He didn’t win that day - but he travelled strongly into the straight and simply appeared to find the trip too far, on his first run of the season.
He drops back 2 furlongs in distance today - and with that run under his belt, should be cherry ripe.
There really is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race - and if he does, then he will be hard to beat.
That said, he faces at least a couple of tough rivals, in the shape of Domain de L’isle and Valtor.
The former won a decent race over this course last month and is on a steep upward curve; whilst the latter is previous course and distance winner off a mark just 2lb lower than the one he runs off today.
More than that, most of the other runners can be given a chance of sorts - although that does tend to be the case in these competitive weekend handicaps.
That said, non of them look as well handicapped as Red Indian - and hopefully that will be enough to see him home in front.
3:00
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
3:35
It’s always good to see a top class horse in action - and there can be little doubt that Cyrname is top class.
He’s the highest rated horse currently in training - and whilst that can be quibbled with - there is no denying that he has put up some scintillating performances over todays course and distance.
What he hasn’t done, is show that level of form elsewhere - but so far as this race is concerned, that is irrelevant !
Cyrname has his perfect conditions today - and having been given a break since a disappointing run in the King George, is going to take an awful lot of beating.
He only faces 3 rivals in this race - and only one of those can be given a realistic chance of beating him (or even giving him a race).
Riders onthe storm has been massively impressive in his 2 races this season - but is going to need to take another huge step forward if he is going to trouble Cyrname this afternoon.
I guess that’s possible - though if Cyrname does run to form, it’s unlikely…
As a consequence, he’s only likely to win, if Cyrname under-performs.
Ofcourse, that could happen - but it’s never the kind of thing I like betting on.
I’d much rather just watch the race - and hopefully get to see a high class horse at the top of his game.
As I said in my email earlier this morning, the weather conditions have made it almost impossible to get involved today.
I’m used to having to deal with going changes, due to late rain - but in addition to that, there is a question mark over whether the racing will actually take place today (and I can see decisions being made very late).
That in itself isn’t really the issue: the issue is which horses will run, if the meetings do go ahead.
I’m sure there will be plenty of non runners, as horses struggle to get to the courses: or as connections decide that conditions aren’t suitable.
In short, the racing may descend into a lottery… (or it may not !)
In the circumstances, I felt my only options were either to keep tips light - or not tip at all.
I eventually decided on the former - and have issued tips in just 2 of the days races.
However, I’ve previewed a few more, and there are a couple of Mentions, who a worth keeping an eye on.
There is also the BFHP race - and I will send out suggested bets for that before midday.
So if the racing does go ahead, then at least you have my view on things (as they stood this morning !)
Haydock
2:05
It’s hard to look beyond the 2 market leaders in this…
The Worlds End sets the race standard - and is the default winner.
Prior to this season, he had been a bit of an under-achiever.
Great things were expected of him as a novice chaser, last season - but he didn’t deliver.
He’s been sent back over hurdles this campaign - and has won 2 of his 3 races.
His latest victory was in a grade 1 at Ascot - and whilst that wasn’t a strong event and he was gifted the race by L’ami Serge, it was still a fair performance.
Certainly, if he repeats that level of form, I would expect him to be able to take care of todays opposition - with the possible exception of Emitom…
He was a very good novice hurdler last season - and the expectation was that he could be a contender in the staying hurdle division this season.
However, he suffered an injury and was only able to make his debut at Cheltenham, on new years day.
He looked as if he needed the run that day, and he ultimately finished last behind Summerville Boy.
I’m sure he will perform much better this afternoon - but he will need to !
The question, is whether connections will want him subjected to a really hard race, this afternoon.
I suspect he may be the best horse in the race - but in order to win, he’s likely to have to get into a battle with The Worlds End, in the Haydock mud.
If he does that, then that is likely to be the end of his Stayers hurdle chances…
That potentially hidden agenda, makes this an impossible race to play in - though I suspect the late betting moves will clarify things (as they so often do !).
2:40
This is another near impossible race to play, due to the presence of French challenge, Rockadenn.
It’s very rare to a French trained runner contesting a race such as this - and he’s impossible to assess.
Form figures of 1111 suggest he could be quite useful - but how his form compares to the UK runners, is anyones guess…
Sir Physo heads the betting - but I wouldn’t be interested in him at around 5/4.
He did well to win his most recent race - but prior to that, had been beaten in a handicap off a mark of 117.
He may well have improved between the 2 runs - but there is definitely a question mark over how good he is.
In fact, if I were to get involved with the race, I would be far more interested Gerolamo Cordano.
He was a slightly unlucky third at Cheltenham on his most recent outing, and that form looks solid (and sets a reasonable standard).
That said, in absolute terms, you would expect a race of this nature to be won by a better horse than him.
With the other 3 runners looking quite limited, that logic takes you back to Rockadeen - and back to guessing.
As a consequence, it has to be a watching race…
3:15
The final declarations for this race were released on Thursday and when I looked at it, I came to the conclusion that Yala Enki was just about the most likely race winner.
He won the corresponding contest 2 years ago - and whilst he is now 11lb higher in the handicap, there can be little doubt that heavy ground at Haydock, suit the horse well.
He’s now 10 - and whilst the shouldn’t be improving, a switch this season to Paul Nichols, may well have eeked a few extra pounds out of him.
He was a 6/1 shot on Thursday - and that seemed fine - however, he has been seriously backed since then and at 7/2 this morning, all of the margin has gone in his price.
I know I said I would tip more horses that I fancied - but this is a relatively open race and simply, you have to draw the line somewhere.
I’m prepared to have him as a saver (and hope his price drifts a little) - but for the main bet in the race, I’m switching to The Two Amigos.
He clashed with Yala Enki (and Elegant Escape), in the Welsh National, over the Christmas period.
There was little between the 3 horses that day - and whilst The Two Amigos came out worse; he did lead to the second last - and is a couple of pounds better off today.
The slightly shorter trip will also help him - and simply, it’s impossible to say which of the 3, will come out on top this afternoon.
Therefore, as The Two Amigos can be backed at twice the price of Yala Enki (and 3pts bigger than Elegant Escape), he has to be the bet.
His case will be helped by the fact that he has a relatively light weight - whilst racing prominently in these kind of races, also tends to be an advantage.
With One for Arthur wanting better ground, Geronimo is probably the most interesting of the others.
Ascot
1:50
This is a fascinating little race - but nearly impossible to call.
It’s unlikely that Alsa Mix will be good enough to win - but victory for any of the other 5 would come as no great surprise.
The market favours Sam Brown - which is understandable, as he was a good winner last time and has plenty of potential.
However, I wouldn’t back anything in this race at 9/4.
Pym is next in the market - and whilst I do have reservations about him, I can’t deny that he keeps on winning (and seemingly keeps on improving).
That said, I slightly prefer the chances of third fav, Copperhead, who receives weight from all of his main rivals.
The issue with him however, is there is absolutely no way of knowing how good he is.
He was impressive last time - but that was in a class 3 handicap off a mark of 134.
That’s very different to running in a grade 2 event…
If I were to get involved with the race, it would be with either Two for Gold or Danny Whizzbang.
It strikes me that both could be over-priced at around 7/1 - though I can’t be confident about that !
Of the pair, I prefer Danny Whizzbang.
He’s very unexposed - but managed to win a grade 2 event on his chasing/seasonal debut.
He disappointed a little next time - but that was in grade 1 company and he did suffer some mid-race interference.
He has a 5lb penalty to carry, which isn’t ideal - but he still strikes me as the value option in an open looking race.
2:25
It’s not hard to argue that Red Indian is a well handicapped horse - and in ideal conditions, I think he warrant supporting in this.
Just over 12 months ago, he finished fourth in the grade 1 novice chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting; behind Le Bague au Roi, Topofthegame and Santini.
All 3 of those are proven grade 1 performers - and whist Red India was beaten upwards of 10 lengths, a rating of 141 suggest he could be very well handicapped.
That feeling was confirmed on his seasonal debut at Haydock, when he was backed into 5/1 jt fav for a competitive race.
He didn’t win that day - but he travelled strongly into the straight and simply appeared to find the trip too far, on his first run of the season.
He drops back 2 furlongs in distance today - and with that run under his belt, should be cherry ripe.
There really is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race - and if he does, then he will be hard to beat.
That said, he faces at least a couple of tough rivals, in the shape of Domain de L’isle and Valtor.
The former won a decent race over this course last month and is on a steep upward curve; whilst the latter is previous course and distance winner off a mark just 2lb lower than the one he runs off today.
More than that, most of the other runners can be given a chance of sorts - although that does tend to be the case in these competitive weekend handicaps.
That said, non of them look as well handicapped as Red Indian - and hopefully that will be enough to see him home in front.
3:00
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
3:35
It’s always good to see a top class horse in action - and there can be little doubt that Cyrname is top class.
He’s the highest rated horse currently in training - and whilst that can be quibbled with - there is no denying that he has put up some scintillating performances over todays course and distance.
What he hasn’t done, is show that level of form elsewhere - but so far as this race is concerned, that is irrelevant !
Cyrname has his perfect conditions today - and having been given a break since a disappointing run in the King George, is going to take an awful lot of beating.
He only faces 3 rivals in this race - and only one of those can be given a realistic chance of beating him (or even giving him a race).
Riders onthe storm has been massively impressive in his 2 races this season - but is going to need to take another huge step forward if he is going to trouble Cyrname this afternoon.
I guess that’s possible - though if Cyrname does run to form, it’s unlikely…
As a consequence, he’s only likely to win, if Cyrname under-performs.
Ofcourse, that could happen - but it’s never the kind of thing I like betting on.
I’d much rather just watch the race - and hopefully get to see a high class horse at the top of his game.
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 2:25 Red Indian 1pt win 5/1
Hayd 3:15 The Two Amigos 0.75pt win 7/1
Hayd 3:15 Yala Enki 0.25pt win 7/2
Mentions
Asc 1:50 Danny Whizzbang (S )
Hayd 2:40 Gerolamo Cordano (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Asc 2:25 Red Indian 1pt win 5/1
Hayd 3:15 The Two Amigos 0.75pt win 7/1
Hayd 3:15 Yala Enki 0.25pt win 7/2
Mentions
Asc 1:50 Danny Whizzbang (S )
Hayd 2:40 Gerolamo Cordano (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
It was nice to break the recent barren spell with a winner,
courtesy of Indefatigable - and nicer still, that it was the strongest fancy of
the day (and hence the biggest stake).
Ofcourse, what wasn’t so nice, was the fact it was a relatively short price - even though it did drift a fair bit, prior to the off…
If I am going to tip more short priced horses, then it will be imperative that you all look to secure the best price you can - and quite often that won’t be the price available when I issue !
Indefatigable was a general 11/4 shot at 9:00 this morning (3/1) in a few places - but was 6 on BF (5/1), a few mins before the off.
She had shortened a little by the time the race got underway - but her SP of 7/2 (BSP 5.23) was still a fair bit bigger than the early price.
Anyway, in terms of the race itself:
She travelled sweetly throughout - took up the running turning in - and powered home !
I really did think she was different class to her rivals - and that’s how it looked.
I’ve no idea how she ended up the price she did - other than the fact it superficially appeared quite a competitive race (so a few of her rivals were backed).
The tips today were split into 2 groups: those I thought should win - and those I thought were overpriced.
In addition to Indefatgiable, I thought Two Taffs should win - and he nearly did.
He travelled through his race like a dream - but got caught in traffic a couple of times - and then couldn’t quicken when he needed to.
Ultimately, he finished an honourable second - beaten by a horse who is an improver.
I can’t have any complaints: simply, you need to be pretty accurate when you are betting at low odds.
The other ‘should win’ tip on the day, was Mount Des Avaloirs.
Again, he travelled like the best horse in the race - and was trading at odds on in-running, over a mile from home.
However, in reality, he did a bit too much too soon - and when push came to shove up the home straight, he couldn’t fend off a lightly weighted rival.
That was always going to be a danger - but I felt he was worth a risk…
The days other 2 tips were more ‘value’ based - but neither got involved where it mattered…
Vive le Roi ran a fair race at Newbury - but he wasn’t able to confirm the placings with any of those who he had finished in front of, over the same course and distance, in November.
The reality is, his form has plateaued whilst, they are still improving (One for the Team, in particular !).
Whilst back at Warwick, Torpillo tried to take the first fence in the back straight with him - and that ended any chance he might have had.
In truth I doubt he would have beaten the first 2 home regardless (Rouge Vif and Nube Negra) - and I suspect it is decent form…
In terms of the Mentions:
Then Sceau Royal was a wining one - provided you discount Altior (which was the suggestion).
There were plenty of ways to benefit from him being the second best horse in the race - and whilst non of them really lent themselves to official tipping, hopefully a few of your managed to profit from the race (I did :) )
Whilst, it looks as if the fire has virtually gone out, with Might Bite.
In ideal conditions, he should really have given Native River a race - but he didn’t.
He managed to get round OK - but if that’s has become the level of your ambition, then you do have to wonder about the future…
Finally, there was no joy for the short-list in the first ‘BFHP’.
In truth, the race was a near lottery: with a standing start and carnage at the final flight.
Mack the Man was brought down in the latter incident - and he still had a chance at the time.
Whilst Ciel de Neige was run out of things close home (though he was only a saver).
On balance, I was glad that I chose that method to cover the race, rather than tip in it - because there is no way I would have tipped the winner !
TVB.
Ofcourse, what wasn’t so nice, was the fact it was a relatively short price - even though it did drift a fair bit, prior to the off…
If I am going to tip more short priced horses, then it will be imperative that you all look to secure the best price you can - and quite often that won’t be the price available when I issue !
Indefatigable was a general 11/4 shot at 9:00 this morning (3/1) in a few places - but was 6 on BF (5/1), a few mins before the off.
She had shortened a little by the time the race got underway - but her SP of 7/2 (BSP 5.23) was still a fair bit bigger than the early price.
Anyway, in terms of the race itself:
She travelled sweetly throughout - took up the running turning in - and powered home !
I really did think she was different class to her rivals - and that’s how it looked.
I’ve no idea how she ended up the price she did - other than the fact it superficially appeared quite a competitive race (so a few of her rivals were backed).
The tips today were split into 2 groups: those I thought should win - and those I thought were overpriced.
In addition to Indefatgiable, I thought Two Taffs should win - and he nearly did.
He travelled through his race like a dream - but got caught in traffic a couple of times - and then couldn’t quicken when he needed to.
Ultimately, he finished an honourable second - beaten by a horse who is an improver.
I can’t have any complaints: simply, you need to be pretty accurate when you are betting at low odds.
The other ‘should win’ tip on the day, was Mount Des Avaloirs.
Again, he travelled like the best horse in the race - and was trading at odds on in-running, over a mile from home.
However, in reality, he did a bit too much too soon - and when push came to shove up the home straight, he couldn’t fend off a lightly weighted rival.
That was always going to be a danger - but I felt he was worth a risk…
The days other 2 tips were more ‘value’ based - but neither got involved where it mattered…
Vive le Roi ran a fair race at Newbury - but he wasn’t able to confirm the placings with any of those who he had finished in front of, over the same course and distance, in November.
The reality is, his form has plateaued whilst, they are still improving (One for the Team, in particular !).
Whilst back at Warwick, Torpillo tried to take the first fence in the back straight with him - and that ended any chance he might have had.
In truth I doubt he would have beaten the first 2 home regardless (Rouge Vif and Nube Negra) - and I suspect it is decent form…
In terms of the Mentions:
Then Sceau Royal was a wining one - provided you discount Altior (which was the suggestion).
There were plenty of ways to benefit from him being the second best horse in the race - and whilst non of them really lent themselves to official tipping, hopefully a few of your managed to profit from the race (I did :) )
Whilst, it looks as if the fire has virtually gone out, with Might Bite.
In ideal conditions, he should really have given Native River a race - but he didn’t.
He managed to get round OK - but if that’s has become the level of your ambition, then you do have to wonder about the future…
Finally, there was no joy for the short-list in the first ‘BFHP’.
In truth, the race was a near lottery: with a standing start and carnage at the final flight.
Mack the Man was brought down in the latter incident - and he still had a chance at the time.
Whilst Ciel de Neige was run out of things close home (though he was only a saver).
On balance, I was glad that I chose that method to cover the race, rather than tip in it - because there is no way I would have tipped the winner !
TVB.
BFHP - Feb 8th
The two JP horses have been very well backed (both now 7/1) -
and at those prices, make limited appeal.
I’ll make Mack the Man the main play in the race, despite the ground worries.
He can be backed at 14/1 on the exchanges.
Thebannerkingrebel still holds appeal - but his price is quite tight.
The 3 outsiders are all worth a play - and are bigger prices on the exchanges.
7 units on Mack the Man at 10/1
5 units on Thebannerkingrebel at 9/1
2 units on Ecco at 20/1
2 units on Flegmatic at 40/1
2 units on Neff at 40/1
2 units on Ciel de Neige at 13/2 (saver)
Just to confirm, these are not official tips
TVB
As I mentioned earlier in the week, I’m going to look to tackle the occasional weekend 'Big Field Handicap Puzzle' (BFHP), in a slightly different way (using the same method that I’ve been using to cover mid-week races, in the forum).
The Betfair hurdle is such a race, tomorrow.
I won’t be tipping in it - but I am prepared to pull together a 'short-list', this evening.
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
Just to re-iterate, these won’t count as official tips.
Newbury 3:35
The drying ground is likely to be a big factor in tomorrows race.
There also tends to be a benefit, to racing up with pace in big field races (to avoid traffic issues).
The race has a history of being won by unexposed, progressive types - so that’s the sort I’ve majored on, in my short-list
Short-List
Mack the Man is extremely well handicapped: unexposed and progressive.
He’s also just snuck in to the weights.
On the flip side, apparently he has a preference for soft ground: and he tends to be held up in his races.
Neff has only run 4 times over hurdles, so is very hard to quantify. However, he has plenty of experience on the flat.
He represents the stable of Gary Moore - and he’s done well in the race, in recent years.
Flegmatic has got even less experience than Neff - but is trained by Dan Skelton, so will have been well prepared.
He has a couple of pieces of good form and looks potentially well handicapped.
The question is whether he can cope with the demands of the race...
Ceil de Neige has been sent over by Willie Mullins - and that makes him interesting.
He may not have won a hurdle race yet - but he ran third in the Fred Winter at last seasons Cheltenham festival, so should be able to cope with the big field.
Ecco is another unexposed novice - this time trained by Paul Nichols.
He finished sixth in last seasons Triumph hurdle - and has looked an improved horse this season.
Never Adapt is the second J P Mcmanus horse (Ciel de Neige is the other) - and she is ridden by Barry Geraghty (suggesting he is JPs main hope).
She is very headstrong - but won well at Kempton last time (suggesting she is becoming more amenable to restraint).
She was raised 10lb for that win - but that might not be enough.
The Bannerkingrebel is a tough novice (that sort tend to do well in the race).
He ran well at Haydock last time and is weighted to reverse form with the winner of that race (Stolen Silver).
I’ll email suggested bets for the race, after I issued tomorrows write-up (so likely to be after 11:30).
I’ll make Mack the Man the main play in the race, despite the ground worries.
He can be backed at 14/1 on the exchanges.
Thebannerkingrebel still holds appeal - but his price is quite tight.
The 3 outsiders are all worth a play - and are bigger prices on the exchanges.
7 units on Mack the Man at 10/1
5 units on Thebannerkingrebel at 9/1
2 units on Ecco at 20/1
2 units on Flegmatic at 40/1
2 units on Neff at 40/1
2 units on Ciel de Neige at 13/2 (saver)
Just to confirm, these are not official tips
TVB
As I mentioned earlier in the week, I’m going to look to tackle the occasional weekend 'Big Field Handicap Puzzle' (BFHP), in a slightly different way (using the same method that I’ve been using to cover mid-week races, in the forum).
The Betfair hurdle is such a race, tomorrow.
I won’t be tipping in it - but I am prepared to pull together a 'short-list', this evening.
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
Just to re-iterate, these won’t count as official tips.
Newbury 3:35
The drying ground is likely to be a big factor in tomorrows race.
There also tends to be a benefit, to racing up with pace in big field races (to avoid traffic issues).
The race has a history of being won by unexposed, progressive types - so that’s the sort I’ve majored on, in my short-list
Short-List
Mack the Man is extremely well handicapped: unexposed and progressive.
He’s also just snuck in to the weights.
On the flip side, apparently he has a preference for soft ground: and he tends to be held up in his races.
Neff has only run 4 times over hurdles, so is very hard to quantify. However, he has plenty of experience on the flat.
He represents the stable of Gary Moore - and he’s done well in the race, in recent years.
Flegmatic has got even less experience than Neff - but is trained by Dan Skelton, so will have been well prepared.
He has a couple of pieces of good form and looks potentially well handicapped.
The question is whether he can cope with the demands of the race...
Ceil de Neige has been sent over by Willie Mullins - and that makes him interesting.
He may not have won a hurdle race yet - but he ran third in the Fred Winter at last seasons Cheltenham festival, so should be able to cope with the big field.
Ecco is another unexposed novice - this time trained by Paul Nichols.
He finished sixth in last seasons Triumph hurdle - and has looked an improved horse this season.
Never Adapt is the second J P Mcmanus horse (Ciel de Neige is the other) - and she is ridden by Barry Geraghty (suggesting he is JPs main hope).
She is very headstrong - but won well at Kempton last time (suggesting she is becoming more amenable to restraint).
She was raised 10lb for that win - but that might not be enough.
The Bannerkingrebel is a tough novice (that sort tend to do well in the race).
He ran well at Haydock last time and is weighted to reverse form with the winner of that race (Stolen Silver).
I’ll email suggested bets for the race, after I issued tomorrows write-up (so likely to be after 11:30).
Daily write-up - Feb 8th
There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury, Warwick and Uttoxeter in the
UK - plus Naas in Ireland.
Having got used to relentless rain for most of the season, the recent dry spell has felt a bit odd.
Obviously, they overcame that last week at Leopardstown by watering ! - but neither Newbury or Warwick have taken such measures this weekend (so far as I’m aware !).
As a consequence, the ground at both courses will have the word ‘good’ in the description - which will suit a different set of horses…
A couple weeks ago I sent out an email concerning ‘tipping issues’.
At the time, I said that I would look to tip more horses that fancied - accepting that the margins in the prices wouldn’t always be there.
The races weren’t there either, last weekend - but this weekend is different,
There are suitable races at both Newbury and Warwick - so I’ve tipped the horses I fancy and worried less about the prices.
Hopefully non of you have chased them down (as that is likely to be a mistake !).
Last night I also sent out the first ‘BRHP’ short-list - to try and tackle the Betfair hurdle.
I will probably be identifying bets for the race, as you are reading this :)
So all in all, a busy day - with a slightly different twist !
There are some nice races though, so hopefully I can manage to find a winner or two (even if the prices aren’t great !).
Anyway, here’s the rationale behind the tips that I’ve issued - plus my thoughts on the days other big races (aside from the Betfair hurdle).
Newbury
1:50
I had intended to tip Acey Milan in this.
When I looked at the race yesterday, I felt he had a fair chance - and the early price of 8/1, was quite attractive.
However, I clearly wasn’t the only one who felt that way !
By tipping time this morning, his price had halved (4/1) - and it continues in free-fall…
He’s that kind of horse - lots of talent and probably well handicapped.
He therefore gets very well backed - but the fact he’s been a beaten favourite in 5 of his last 8 races, suggests the value call, is take him on at a short price…
In truth, this looks a pretty open race.
Intriguingly, the 4 horses who headed the market at first show (One for the Team, Dolphin Square, Anytime will do and Vive le Roi), ran against each other in a similar race over this course, back in November.
More than that, they managed to finish 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th, behind Champagne on Ice.
The weights aren’t massively different today - and it’s relatively easy to make a case for any of the 4 coming out on top, in the re-match.
That makes Vive le Roi interesting, from a ‘value’ perspective.
He actually finished runner up that race - so is the easiest one to make a case for (he just needs to repeat the form !).
However, he is the oldest of the quartet - and most exposed - which is why he’s proved the least attractive in the betting.
However, he has a few things in his favour: firstly, he may get an uncontested lead (unless Acey Milan takes him on); secondly, he will have no issue with the good ground; and thirdly, all his best form is at Newbury.
Ultimately, this just comes downs to chances and odds - and I think at 12/1, he is a quite a bit over-priced.
2:25
The presence of Altior, makes this a tough race to get involved with…
He’s one of the best chasers of recent years - and whilst he did lose his hitherto unbeaten run over obstacles last time, that doesn’t make him a poor horse.
In fact, his defeat at the hands of Cyrname was perfectly understandable - as the race took place in conditions that perfectly suited the winner.
That said, Altior didn’t look his best that day - and a few doubt were also creeping in last season…
Ultimately, these horses have only go so many miles in their legs - and his are getting quite well worn !
If he is back to his best today, he will win - and Nicky Henderson appear quite bullish.
That said, I’m never inclined to read much into trainers comments, in these kind of situations (I think they struggle to be objective).
If he weren’t in the race, then I would be very keen on Sceau Royal.
Not only is he the second best horse in the race on official ratings - he will be perfectly suited by quick ground and 2 miles.
At the weights, Kalashnikov has a similar chance - but he could find todays race happening a bit too quickly for him.
I did briefly consider tipping Sceau Royal EW - but if Altior is back to his best, he won’t beat him (so we then get 2/1 about him finishing second).
A better better is either to back Sceau Royal in the w/o Altior market (I’ve taken a bit of 7/2) - or to do a straight forecast Altior to beat Sceau Royal - along with a win bet on Sceau Royal.
However, non of these options really lend themselves to official tips, so officially speaking , it has to be a watching race.
3:00
Whilst the betting suggests that Native River is home and hosed in this, there is a theoretical argument that Might Bite is worth supporting, at a decent price.
The 2 of them famously fought out the finish to the 2018 Gold Cup, with Native River coming out on top, after a protracted struggle.
However, the soft ground that day, would have suited him more than it would Might Bite - whilst the latter is also 6lb better off today.
Certainly, if this race was taking place a month after that Gold Cup, I would be all over Might Bite (particular as Richard Johnson is unable to ride Native River today).
However, it’s now almost 2 years since the clash - and a lot of water has subsequently passed under the bridge.
In truth, both horses have probably declined - though that is more obvious for Might Bite.
He struggled in 3 races last season - and he’s not even managed to complete the course in 2 attempts, this campaign.
And that’s why he can be backed at 6/1.
That said, with the remaining runners rated at least stone inferior to the ‘big 2’, there is a temptation to take a small risk on him bouncing back.
The trouble is, when horses go into decline, it’s often hard to gauge how far they have fallen.
The official handicapper thinks that, Might Bite has dropped 9lb from his peak - but he is guessing…
The bottom line is, I feel it’s hard to tip him, with so many doubts hanging over him.
However, if Nicky Henderson has managed to rekindle the flame - then in under perfect conditions, he should certainly be able to give Native River a good race.
3:35
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
4:10
Despite the fact he carries top weight and is up against some dangerous looking rivals, I want to side with Mount des Avaloirs in this.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut behind Champ, at this course back in November.
That was a really strong race - and despite having his first run over fences Mount des Avaloirs showed real promise.
He was never in a position to win - but stayed on strongly, to finish fourth - beaten just 7 lengths.
His next race was a match at Ascot. But he was unsuited by the heavy ground - and was well beaten by Angels Breath.
I’m not reading much into that - and I think we will get to see what he is capable of, this afternoon.
The fact that he was sent off fav for the big handicap hurdle at Ascot, last December: and then at just 7/1 for last seasons Betfair hurdle, gives an indication of the regard in which he is held.
He didn’t feature in the finish of either of those races - but 3 miles over fences is going to suit him much better.
I’m sure he will eventually be rated a fair bit higher than his current mark of 142 - the only question is whether he can give weight today, to some very promising rivals…
Certainly, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the chances of Highest Sun or Present Value; though the former might be feeling the effects of a few hard races; whilst the latter might find the ground riding a touch too quick.
The other one I fear, is Post War.
He made his comeback a very long absence, at this track in December - and ran with a fair amount of promise.
There is always the danger that the race will have set him back, rather than brought him on - but if he has improved, then Mount Des Avaloirs could have his work cut out conceding him 19lb.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth making an official saver.
Warwick
2:05
Nube Negra is clearly the one to beat in this.
He was pretty limited as a hurdler - but has looked a completely different beast, since being sent over fences.
He was an impressive winner over today course, on his chasing debut in October: and followed that up with an equally comprehensive romp, at Fakenham later that month.
The feature both times, was his fast accurate jumping - and that was again on evidence, on his most recent start.
That was in the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown - and whilst he couldn’t quite get to Esprit du Large that day, he still ran a mighty race to finish second…
Some way back in fourth place that day, was Torpillo.
Like Nubre Negra, he had been might impressive on his previous chase start, when comfortably beating Mister Fisher.
Subsequent events have shown that to be a very strong piece of form - although as with Nubre Negra, it was more the manner of the win, rather than the substance which impressed.
So much so, that Torpillo was sent off a 13/8 fav for the Henry VIII chase - but he disappointed badly.
Having led early, he was beaten as soon as he was challenged - and eventually trailed in over 20 lengths behind the winner.
That wasn’t his form.
I’m hoping that he was just feeling the effects of his 2 previous hard races - and will bounce back today.
In truth, even if he does, he will have his work cut out to contain Nubre Negra, who has clearly been targeted at this race.
However, this game is about odds and probabilities - and if the Henry VIII hadn’t been run, then the market would be struggling to pick between the pair.
At 5/4 and 7/1, there really can only be one bet in the race.
Non of the other 4 can be completely dismissed - but I do think the race will be won by either Nubre Negra or Torpillo.
Fingers crossed it’s the latter !
2:40
I’m really keen on Indefatigable in this - and whilst she is favourite, I can’t really understand why her price isn’t shorter…
Granted, she is only a few pounds superior to a couple of her rivals on official ratings - but she is rated the best horse in the race - and todays test should be perfect for her.
I honestly didn’t think I would be able to tip her - and I spent a fair bit of time thinking about what price I would consider acceptable.
I wouldn’t ever want to take less than 2/1, because of the random luck element - but I would still have been tempted at that price.
Needless to say, at 11/4 (or better !) stakes had to be adjusted, slightly…
In terms of the case for her, then she is just a very solid, likeable mare - who’s second and third runs this season, represent much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She ran Lady Buttons to less than 2 lengths, back in November; and then followed that up by finishing second to Dame de Compagnie in a very hot handicap at Cheltenhams December meeting.
She’s only run once since then, when disappointing at Sandown, early last month.
However that race was run on very soft ground, which she didn’t appear to handle.
Back on a sounder surface, she is very much the one to beat.
In terms of her rivals, then nothing particularly jumps out.
Legends Gold is the obvious one, as she is the next highest rated. However, I do wonder if her rating flatters her a little (she won well last time, but Ben Jones was riding her, so that was a ‘free’ 5lb !).
Cap Soleil and Ch’ti Diamond are both hard to assess - so could take a step forward.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved with them.
There is little guesswork involved with Indefatigable - just whether she is over her Sandown exertions.
If she is, I expect her to win.
3:15
Two Taffs is another one I expect to win (it’s like waiting for a bus !).
In fairness, he faces stiffer competition that Indefatigable - but I’ll be a little disappointed if he can’t get the better of them.
He was a very useful novice chaser, 3 seasons back - when he ran third at the Cheltenham festival, before winning a decent race at Ayr's Scottish national meeting.
The expectation was that he would go on from that - however, he only ran once - the following October - prior to his run over hurdles, at Wetherby, this November.
Clearly there have been issues with him - but his Wetherby run suggested he retained all of his old ability.
That was borne out later in the month, when he travelled with real purpose in the Ladbroke trophy - but didn’t see out the 3m2f trip.
He drops back to 2m4f today - the distance over which he’s run his best races.
I suspect he has been targeted at this race by Dan Skelton (Warwick is his local) track - and whilst he does face some dangerous looking rivals, I think he’ll take a bit of beating.
Belami des Pictons is the obvious one to fear - in his first time cheek pieces.
However, he is becoming a little disappointing - and I can’t see the quickening ground, suiting him.
Course winner, King of Realms is another possibility; as is Clondaw Castle - but both have question marks over them.
Ultimately, I think Two Taffs is the most likely race winner - and whilst I don’t think there is much in his price, I did say I’d try to focus more on the race winners and less on value bets !
Having got used to relentless rain for most of the season, the recent dry spell has felt a bit odd.
Obviously, they overcame that last week at Leopardstown by watering ! - but neither Newbury or Warwick have taken such measures this weekend (so far as I’m aware !).
As a consequence, the ground at both courses will have the word ‘good’ in the description - which will suit a different set of horses…
A couple weeks ago I sent out an email concerning ‘tipping issues’.
At the time, I said that I would look to tip more horses that fancied - accepting that the margins in the prices wouldn’t always be there.
The races weren’t there either, last weekend - but this weekend is different,
There are suitable races at both Newbury and Warwick - so I’ve tipped the horses I fancy and worried less about the prices.
Hopefully non of you have chased them down (as that is likely to be a mistake !).
Last night I also sent out the first ‘BRHP’ short-list - to try and tackle the Betfair hurdle.
I will probably be identifying bets for the race, as you are reading this :)
So all in all, a busy day - with a slightly different twist !
There are some nice races though, so hopefully I can manage to find a winner or two (even if the prices aren’t great !).
Anyway, here’s the rationale behind the tips that I’ve issued - plus my thoughts on the days other big races (aside from the Betfair hurdle).
Newbury
1:50
I had intended to tip Acey Milan in this.
When I looked at the race yesterday, I felt he had a fair chance - and the early price of 8/1, was quite attractive.
However, I clearly wasn’t the only one who felt that way !
By tipping time this morning, his price had halved (4/1) - and it continues in free-fall…
He’s that kind of horse - lots of talent and probably well handicapped.
He therefore gets very well backed - but the fact he’s been a beaten favourite in 5 of his last 8 races, suggests the value call, is take him on at a short price…
In truth, this looks a pretty open race.
Intriguingly, the 4 horses who headed the market at first show (One for the Team, Dolphin Square, Anytime will do and Vive le Roi), ran against each other in a similar race over this course, back in November.
More than that, they managed to finish 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th, behind Champagne on Ice.
The weights aren’t massively different today - and it’s relatively easy to make a case for any of the 4 coming out on top, in the re-match.
That makes Vive le Roi interesting, from a ‘value’ perspective.
He actually finished runner up that race - so is the easiest one to make a case for (he just needs to repeat the form !).
However, he is the oldest of the quartet - and most exposed - which is why he’s proved the least attractive in the betting.
However, he has a few things in his favour: firstly, he may get an uncontested lead (unless Acey Milan takes him on); secondly, he will have no issue with the good ground; and thirdly, all his best form is at Newbury.
Ultimately, this just comes downs to chances and odds - and I think at 12/1, he is a quite a bit over-priced.
2:25
The presence of Altior, makes this a tough race to get involved with…
He’s one of the best chasers of recent years - and whilst he did lose his hitherto unbeaten run over obstacles last time, that doesn’t make him a poor horse.
In fact, his defeat at the hands of Cyrname was perfectly understandable - as the race took place in conditions that perfectly suited the winner.
That said, Altior didn’t look his best that day - and a few doubt were also creeping in last season…
Ultimately, these horses have only go so many miles in their legs - and his are getting quite well worn !
If he is back to his best today, he will win - and Nicky Henderson appear quite bullish.
That said, I’m never inclined to read much into trainers comments, in these kind of situations (I think they struggle to be objective).
If he weren’t in the race, then I would be very keen on Sceau Royal.
Not only is he the second best horse in the race on official ratings - he will be perfectly suited by quick ground and 2 miles.
At the weights, Kalashnikov has a similar chance - but he could find todays race happening a bit too quickly for him.
I did briefly consider tipping Sceau Royal EW - but if Altior is back to his best, he won’t beat him (so we then get 2/1 about him finishing second).
A better better is either to back Sceau Royal in the w/o Altior market (I’ve taken a bit of 7/2) - or to do a straight forecast Altior to beat Sceau Royal - along with a win bet on Sceau Royal.
However, non of these options really lend themselves to official tips, so officially speaking , it has to be a watching race.
3:00
Whilst the betting suggests that Native River is home and hosed in this, there is a theoretical argument that Might Bite is worth supporting, at a decent price.
The 2 of them famously fought out the finish to the 2018 Gold Cup, with Native River coming out on top, after a protracted struggle.
However, the soft ground that day, would have suited him more than it would Might Bite - whilst the latter is also 6lb better off today.
Certainly, if this race was taking place a month after that Gold Cup, I would be all over Might Bite (particular as Richard Johnson is unable to ride Native River today).
However, it’s now almost 2 years since the clash - and a lot of water has subsequently passed under the bridge.
In truth, both horses have probably declined - though that is more obvious for Might Bite.
He struggled in 3 races last season - and he’s not even managed to complete the course in 2 attempts, this campaign.
And that’s why he can be backed at 6/1.
That said, with the remaining runners rated at least stone inferior to the ‘big 2’, there is a temptation to take a small risk on him bouncing back.
The trouble is, when horses go into decline, it’s often hard to gauge how far they have fallen.
The official handicapper thinks that, Might Bite has dropped 9lb from his peak - but he is guessing…
The bottom line is, I feel it’s hard to tip him, with so many doubts hanging over him.
However, if Nicky Henderson has managed to rekindle the flame - then in under perfect conditions, he should certainly be able to give Native River a good race.
3:35
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
4:10
Despite the fact he carries top weight and is up against some dangerous looking rivals, I want to side with Mount des Avaloirs in this.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut behind Champ, at this course back in November.
That was a really strong race - and despite having his first run over fences Mount des Avaloirs showed real promise.
He was never in a position to win - but stayed on strongly, to finish fourth - beaten just 7 lengths.
His next race was a match at Ascot. But he was unsuited by the heavy ground - and was well beaten by Angels Breath.
I’m not reading much into that - and I think we will get to see what he is capable of, this afternoon.
The fact that he was sent off fav for the big handicap hurdle at Ascot, last December: and then at just 7/1 for last seasons Betfair hurdle, gives an indication of the regard in which he is held.
He didn’t feature in the finish of either of those races - but 3 miles over fences is going to suit him much better.
I’m sure he will eventually be rated a fair bit higher than his current mark of 142 - the only question is whether he can give weight today, to some very promising rivals…
Certainly, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the chances of Highest Sun or Present Value; though the former might be feeling the effects of a few hard races; whilst the latter might find the ground riding a touch too quick.
The other one I fear, is Post War.
He made his comeback a very long absence, at this track in December - and ran with a fair amount of promise.
There is always the danger that the race will have set him back, rather than brought him on - but if he has improved, then Mount Des Avaloirs could have his work cut out conceding him 19lb.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth making an official saver.
Warwick
2:05
Nube Negra is clearly the one to beat in this.
He was pretty limited as a hurdler - but has looked a completely different beast, since being sent over fences.
He was an impressive winner over today course, on his chasing debut in October: and followed that up with an equally comprehensive romp, at Fakenham later that month.
The feature both times, was his fast accurate jumping - and that was again on evidence, on his most recent start.
That was in the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown - and whilst he couldn’t quite get to Esprit du Large that day, he still ran a mighty race to finish second…
Some way back in fourth place that day, was Torpillo.
Like Nubre Negra, he had been might impressive on his previous chase start, when comfortably beating Mister Fisher.
Subsequent events have shown that to be a very strong piece of form - although as with Nubre Negra, it was more the manner of the win, rather than the substance which impressed.
So much so, that Torpillo was sent off a 13/8 fav for the Henry VIII chase - but he disappointed badly.
Having led early, he was beaten as soon as he was challenged - and eventually trailed in over 20 lengths behind the winner.
That wasn’t his form.
I’m hoping that he was just feeling the effects of his 2 previous hard races - and will bounce back today.
In truth, even if he does, he will have his work cut out to contain Nubre Negra, who has clearly been targeted at this race.
However, this game is about odds and probabilities - and if the Henry VIII hadn’t been run, then the market would be struggling to pick between the pair.
At 5/4 and 7/1, there really can only be one bet in the race.
Non of the other 4 can be completely dismissed - but I do think the race will be won by either Nubre Negra or Torpillo.
Fingers crossed it’s the latter !
2:40
I’m really keen on Indefatigable in this - and whilst she is favourite, I can’t really understand why her price isn’t shorter…
Granted, she is only a few pounds superior to a couple of her rivals on official ratings - but she is rated the best horse in the race - and todays test should be perfect for her.
I honestly didn’t think I would be able to tip her - and I spent a fair bit of time thinking about what price I would consider acceptable.
I wouldn’t ever want to take less than 2/1, because of the random luck element - but I would still have been tempted at that price.
Needless to say, at 11/4 (or better !) stakes had to be adjusted, slightly…
In terms of the case for her, then she is just a very solid, likeable mare - who’s second and third runs this season, represent much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She ran Lady Buttons to less than 2 lengths, back in November; and then followed that up by finishing second to Dame de Compagnie in a very hot handicap at Cheltenhams December meeting.
She’s only run once since then, when disappointing at Sandown, early last month.
However that race was run on very soft ground, which she didn’t appear to handle.
Back on a sounder surface, she is very much the one to beat.
In terms of her rivals, then nothing particularly jumps out.
Legends Gold is the obvious one, as she is the next highest rated. However, I do wonder if her rating flatters her a little (she won well last time, but Ben Jones was riding her, so that was a ‘free’ 5lb !).
Cap Soleil and Ch’ti Diamond are both hard to assess - so could take a step forward.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved with them.
There is little guesswork involved with Indefatigable - just whether she is over her Sandown exertions.
If she is, I expect her to win.
3:15
Two Taffs is another one I expect to win (it’s like waiting for a bus !).
In fairness, he faces stiffer competition that Indefatigable - but I’ll be a little disappointed if he can’t get the better of them.
He was a very useful novice chaser, 3 seasons back - when he ran third at the Cheltenham festival, before winning a decent race at Ayr's Scottish national meeting.
The expectation was that he would go on from that - however, he only ran once - the following October - prior to his run over hurdles, at Wetherby, this November.
Clearly there have been issues with him - but his Wetherby run suggested he retained all of his old ability.
That was borne out later in the month, when he travelled with real purpose in the Ladbroke trophy - but didn’t see out the 3m2f trip.
He drops back to 2m4f today - the distance over which he’s run his best races.
I suspect he has been targeted at this race by Dan Skelton (Warwick is his local) track - and whilst he does face some dangerous looking rivals, I think he’ll take a bit of beating.
Belami des Pictons is the obvious one to fear - in his first time cheek pieces.
However, he is becoming a little disappointing - and I can’t see the quickening ground, suiting him.
Course winner, King of Realms is another possibility; as is Clondaw Castle - but both have question marks over them.
Ultimately, I think Two Taffs is the most likely race winner - and whilst I don’t think there is much in his price, I did say I’d try to focus more on the race winners and less on value bets !
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Warw 2:05 Torpillo 0.5pt win 7/1
Warw 2:40 Indefatigable 1.5pt win 11/4
Warw 3:15 Two Taffs 1pt win 3/1
Newb 1:50 Vive le Roi 0.5pt win 12/1
Mentions
Newb 2:25 Sceau Royal (w/o Altior)
Newb 3:00 Might Bite (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Warw 2:05 Torpillo 0.5pt win 7/1
Warw 2:40 Indefatigable 1.5pt win 11/4
Warw 3:15 Two Taffs 1pt win 3/1
Newb 1:50 Vive le Roi 0.5pt win 12/1
Newb 4:10 Mount des Avaloirs
0.75pt win 9/2
Newb 4:10 Post War 0.25pt win 9/1 (saver)
Newb 4:10 Post War 0.25pt win 9/1 (saver)
Mentions
Newb 2:25 Sceau Royal (w/o Altior)
Newb 3:00 Might Bite (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Introducing BFHPs
But, before I explain them...
A quick thank you, to everyone who responded to Sundays email.
In truth, it didn’t actually get the response I expected ! (possibly because I didn’t get the wording quite right).
I was simply expecting a few people to ask if they could leave - instead of which, I received an avalanche of support !
It was truly humbling - and made me realise what a great community I’ve managed to build :)
I think/hope I’ve replied to to everyone individually - but suffice to say, my commitment to make the service a success, remains totally undiminished (if anything, it has increased !).
Obviously, I can’t guarantee a flow of winning tips - not only do I need to spot opportunities, but luck always plays a part (and I have no control over that).
However, I will be doing my level best to get the things back on an even keel over the next few weeks…
Anyway, I’ve been giving some thought to how I might be able to handle things slightly differently (to help overcome some of the tipping issues).
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’ve been piloting a method in the forum, whereby I preview races the night before: produce a short-list of horses I’m interested in: and then suggest bets, late morning on the race day.
I like the approach because it is aligned with what I do myself, when I’m betting.
It also has benefits for readers, in that it provides my thoughts early (which can be added to any they have of their own): but only bets late (when bookmakers are more prepared to take bets - and there is greater liquidity on the exchanges).
However, the problem is that there aren’t many suitable races run during the midweek: it is a method best suited to Big Field Handicap Puzzles (BFHP).
Such races tend to be run at the weekend - so I’m going to look to start covering the occasional suitable race, as part of the Main service.
Generally speaking, these are races that I don’t tend to tip in (or at least, shouldn’t really tip in !).
That’s because they are usually minefields - and luck can play a very big part.
The tend to be good quality handicaps, with 16+ runners.
The idea is that I will aim to quarter the field (roughly) - and produce a short-list.
I will then advise bets, on most of the runners on the short list - staked to reflect my confidence/prices available.
Using this method, strike rate should be dramatically improved (at the expense of total winnings) - and the impact of luck, reduced.
There were a few BFHP races that took place last weekend: the hurdle race at Sandown on Saturday, where I fancied Ask Dillon; and the chase at Leopardstown on Sunday, where I tipped Portmore Lough, are 2 that spring readily to mind.
What I therefore intend to do in future, is send out an email for these race(s) the night before - containing a brief race preview and the short-list.
In the write-up, I will then just refer back to the ‘BFHP email’.
After the write-up has been issued, I will suggest a number of bets for the race (using prices available at approx 11:30).
I will aim to stake a nominal 20 units on each race - spread across 5 or 6 horses.
How/if you follow the recommendations, is up to you.
They won’t be official tips - and won’t be included in the TVB P&L.
For those who do want to follow them, my suggestion would be to stake 1pt in total, across the 20 units.
The method will be very well suited to the exchanges, as you will be able to spread the units around - and easily see total liability/win on each of the horses.
Better prices are also likely to be available on the exchanges, for many of the horses.
If you don't use the exchanges, then placing bets via conventional bookmakers will also work fine (it will just be a bit more time consuming).
One possible issue is that I may occasionally decide that I want to tip ‘officially’ in the race.
If that is the case, then I will handle the tip in the usual way (ie. issue at 9:00).
I will still suggest bets in the race (ie. allocate the 20 units) - therefore, in this scenario, you would need to decide which method you wanted to follow…
I’ll post this email in the forum, so if you have any questions or comments, please ask them there (so everyone can benefit).
TVB - constantly evolving and moving forward :)
A quick thank you, to everyone who responded to Sundays email.
In truth, it didn’t actually get the response I expected ! (possibly because I didn’t get the wording quite right).
I was simply expecting a few people to ask if they could leave - instead of which, I received an avalanche of support !
It was truly humbling - and made me realise what a great community I’ve managed to build :)
I think/hope I’ve replied to to everyone individually - but suffice to say, my commitment to make the service a success, remains totally undiminished (if anything, it has increased !).
Obviously, I can’t guarantee a flow of winning tips - not only do I need to spot opportunities, but luck always plays a part (and I have no control over that).
However, I will be doing my level best to get the things back on an even keel over the next few weeks…
Anyway, I’ve been giving some thought to how I might be able to handle things slightly differently (to help overcome some of the tipping issues).
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’ve been piloting a method in the forum, whereby I preview races the night before: produce a short-list of horses I’m interested in: and then suggest bets, late morning on the race day.
I like the approach because it is aligned with what I do myself, when I’m betting.
It also has benefits for readers, in that it provides my thoughts early (which can be added to any they have of their own): but only bets late (when bookmakers are more prepared to take bets - and there is greater liquidity on the exchanges).
However, the problem is that there aren’t many suitable races run during the midweek: it is a method best suited to Big Field Handicap Puzzles (BFHP).
Such races tend to be run at the weekend - so I’m going to look to start covering the occasional suitable race, as part of the Main service.
Generally speaking, these are races that I don’t tend to tip in (or at least, shouldn’t really tip in !).
That’s because they are usually minefields - and luck can play a very big part.
The tend to be good quality handicaps, with 16+ runners.
The idea is that I will aim to quarter the field (roughly) - and produce a short-list.
I will then advise bets, on most of the runners on the short list - staked to reflect my confidence/prices available.
Using this method, strike rate should be dramatically improved (at the expense of total winnings) - and the impact of luck, reduced.
There were a few BFHP races that took place last weekend: the hurdle race at Sandown on Saturday, where I fancied Ask Dillon; and the chase at Leopardstown on Sunday, where I tipped Portmore Lough, are 2 that spring readily to mind.
What I therefore intend to do in future, is send out an email for these race(s) the night before - containing a brief race preview and the short-list.
In the write-up, I will then just refer back to the ‘BFHP email’.
After the write-up has been issued, I will suggest a number of bets for the race (using prices available at approx 11:30).
I will aim to stake a nominal 20 units on each race - spread across 5 or 6 horses.
How/if you follow the recommendations, is up to you.
They won’t be official tips - and won’t be included in the TVB P&L.
For those who do want to follow them, my suggestion would be to stake 1pt in total, across the 20 units.
The method will be very well suited to the exchanges, as you will be able to spread the units around - and easily see total liability/win on each of the horses.
Better prices are also likely to be available on the exchanges, for many of the horses.
If you don't use the exchanges, then placing bets via conventional bookmakers will also work fine (it will just be a bit more time consuming).
One possible issue is that I may occasionally decide that I want to tip ‘officially’ in the race.
If that is the case, then I will handle the tip in the usual way (ie. issue at 9:00).
I will still suggest bets in the race (ie. allocate the 20 units) - therefore, in this scenario, you would need to decide which method you wanted to follow…
I’ll post this email in the forum, so if you have any questions or comments, please ask them there (so everyone can benefit).
TVB - constantly evolving and moving forward :)
Review of the day
It was another disappointing day for the tips - with neither
of the days 2 offerings even managing to finish their respective
races...
I knew that both were risky: Blue Sari on the back of a poor recent run; and Portmore Lough because of the nature of the race - but I was hopeful things might drop right for them today.
Alas, that wasn’t the case - and Blue Sari in particular, left a bit of a bad taste.
As is invariably the case, his early price shortened markedly - so I wasn’t surprised to see him drift back out to 7 (6/1) on BF, about 10 mins before the off.
What I was surprised to see, was the subsequent sustained drift…
In the 4 mins prior to the off, his price went from 7 to 17.
You rarely see that kind of drift on a relatively well fancied horse, in a grade 1 contest.
And, surprise, surprise, after travelling fine for the first mile and a half of the race - he cut out as soon as pressure was applied (in exactly the same way he had done in his previous race).
Someone knew that his underlying issue had not been resolved - and they profited from it…
There were no sinister going ons with Portmore Lough - in fact, he was the subject of relatively strong late support.
Part of the appeal with him was the booking of a 7lb claimer - but I think he cost the horse its chance of winning.
You can never win a nature of that nature at the start - but you can lose it - and he took up a dreadful position as the flag went up.
He was towards the back of the field jumping the first fence - and it’s very hard to make up ground in a race of that nature.
In fairness, he did manage to pick a few off - and still had half a chance when he unseated at the fourth last.
Whether he would have featured in the finish though, is anyones guess…
The race was won by Glamorgan Duke, who was one of the big priced horses I suggested might be worth a small play.
I don’t know how many of you took that advice - but a BSP of almost 100 was a nice reward for anyone who did !
In the opening race on the card, Jeremys Flame was another disappointment.
She had really strong form - but ran no kind of race.
Again, the consolation (for those who read the write-up !), was that the short-list of 6 contained 3 of the first 4 home - including the winner (who had a BSP of 23).
Aspire Tower was a final flight faller in the juvenile hurdle.
It’s hard to say whether he would have won, had he stayed on his feet - though regardless, he ran a long way below the level of his Christmas form.
Column of Fire managed third place in the long distance hurdle - but Cabaret Queen was never sighted; whilst You can call me Al took a horrible looking fall.
The result of the race suggested I was right to oppose the market leaders, at the prices: and whilst Faugheens victory in the novice chase, suggested I was wrong opposing the market principals in that particular contest - he only scrambled home by half a length (though it was still some effort !).
Finally, I would be pretty confident that the extensive watering, coupled with a few showers, cost Kemboy victory in the Irish Gold cup.
The ground was far softer than I expected (much softer than yesterday) - which suited Delta Work and Presenting Percy, a lot more than Kemboy.
In the circumstances, I felt that Kemboy ran really well - and I’ve little doubt he will reverse the form, once the spring ground arrives (assuming ofcourse, that it is not artificially ‘adjusted’ !).
TVB.
I knew that both were risky: Blue Sari on the back of a poor recent run; and Portmore Lough because of the nature of the race - but I was hopeful things might drop right for them today.
Alas, that wasn’t the case - and Blue Sari in particular, left a bit of a bad taste.
As is invariably the case, his early price shortened markedly - so I wasn’t surprised to see him drift back out to 7 (6/1) on BF, about 10 mins before the off.
What I was surprised to see, was the subsequent sustained drift…
In the 4 mins prior to the off, his price went from 7 to 17.
You rarely see that kind of drift on a relatively well fancied horse, in a grade 1 contest.
And, surprise, surprise, after travelling fine for the first mile and a half of the race - he cut out as soon as pressure was applied (in exactly the same way he had done in his previous race).
Someone knew that his underlying issue had not been resolved - and they profited from it…
There were no sinister going ons with Portmore Lough - in fact, he was the subject of relatively strong late support.
Part of the appeal with him was the booking of a 7lb claimer - but I think he cost the horse its chance of winning.
You can never win a nature of that nature at the start - but you can lose it - and he took up a dreadful position as the flag went up.
He was towards the back of the field jumping the first fence - and it’s very hard to make up ground in a race of that nature.
In fairness, he did manage to pick a few off - and still had half a chance when he unseated at the fourth last.
Whether he would have featured in the finish though, is anyones guess…
The race was won by Glamorgan Duke, who was one of the big priced horses I suggested might be worth a small play.
I don’t know how many of you took that advice - but a BSP of almost 100 was a nice reward for anyone who did !
In the opening race on the card, Jeremys Flame was another disappointment.
She had really strong form - but ran no kind of race.
Again, the consolation (for those who read the write-up !), was that the short-list of 6 contained 3 of the first 4 home - including the winner (who had a BSP of 23).
Aspire Tower was a final flight faller in the juvenile hurdle.
It’s hard to say whether he would have won, had he stayed on his feet - though regardless, he ran a long way below the level of his Christmas form.
Column of Fire managed third place in the long distance hurdle - but Cabaret Queen was never sighted; whilst You can call me Al took a horrible looking fall.
The result of the race suggested I was right to oppose the market leaders, at the prices: and whilst Faugheens victory in the novice chase, suggested I was wrong opposing the market principals in that particular contest - he only scrambled home by half a length (though it was still some effort !).
Finally, I would be pretty confident that the extensive watering, coupled with a few showers, cost Kemboy victory in the Irish Gold cup.
The ground was far softer than I expected (much softer than yesterday) - which suited Delta Work and Presenting Percy, a lot more than Kemboy.
In the circumstances, I felt that Kemboy ran really well - and I’ve little doubt he will reverse the form, once the spring ground arrives (assuming ofcourse, that it is not artificially ‘adjusted’ !).
TVB.
Daily write-up - Feb 2nd
There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Musselburgh and Taunton in the UK -
plus Leopardstown in Ireland.
It’s the second day of the Dublin Racing festival - and it will be interesting to see how the ground is riding.
The general consensus yesterday, was that it was drying quickly - and to combat that, there has been selective watering, both overnight and this morning.
There has also been 3mm of rain - so it’s anyones guess how all that will work out !
Away from Dublin, they race at Musselburgh and Taunton.
There are no big races at Taunton - but I did expect there to be some races of interest at Musselburgh.
However, the fields haven’t held up as well as I hoped - and that coupled with uncertainty over the ground (following rain yesterday afternoon), means I’m inclined to swerve the meeting.
As a consequence, all my attention has been focused on Leopardstown.
Unfortunately, it’s not the most punter friendly card: with the races split between the blindingly obvious (with short priced favourites) - and the near impossible (20+ runner handicaps).
I guess no one said it was easy !
I’ve ended up with just 2 tips on the day - but some also interesting Mentions (but you'll need to read the previews to discover all of them !).
Here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races…
Leopardstown
12:55
The first of 3 big field handicaps - this one arguably look a little easier than the other 2.
That’s because it is possible to construct a short-list - though, with a lot of unexposed horses in the line-up, confidence over those with a chance, isn’t quite as high as I’d like.
The ones of main interest, are: Jeremys Flame, Concertista, Black Tears, Drury, Spruced Up and Ena Baie.
Jeremys Flame is certainly the most appealing runner, as her last time out second in the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle is much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She doesn’t look badly handicapped on a mark of 136 - and of she can again run to that level, she is very much the one to beat.
The trouble is, there could be one lurking on a low weight, who could improve sufficiently to beat her.
Spruced Up and Ena Baie look the most likely candidates - and it’s not helped that both are owned by J P McManus !
If they are expected to show big improvement, then at least the market is likely to foretell it !
I would hope that Jeremys Flame would just about have the measure of the others on the short list - so then it becomes a question of whether 6/1 is ‘value’ in a 27 runner handicap !
Instinctively, I feel not - but that’s the price on offer…
My inclination would be to wait and try to get at least 8/1 at some point before the off.
If she doesn’t drift to 8/1, then 6/1 is probably acceptable - as by then, you should also have the knowledge that nothing is massively fancied against her…
1:25
Objectively, it’s nearly impossible to oppose Aspire Tower in this.
He’s unbeaten in his 2 runs over hurdles - and in the second of those, he comfortably beat Wolf Prince, A Wave at the Sea and Clemencia.
All 3 of those re-oppose this afternoon - but there is no obvious reason why they should reverse the form.
As a consequence, Cerberus could be Aspire Towers main danger - but he is closely linked, with A Wave at the Sea - form which suggests he won’t be troubling the favourite !
Never do Nothing and Oak Park are the only others who can really be considered - but they will need to show massive improvement on their runs in maiden company, if they are to pose a threat.
It’s not impossible that either could do so - and quick ground may help them - but either one would be very speculative.
In truth, if you want to get involved with this race (and not back an odds on shot !), then it will have to be a speculative call.
Oak Park is a 40/1 shot - and that might be worth a tiny risk; similarly, Clemencia is a 33/1 shot - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to beat Aspire Tower, he may be capable of improving sufficiently to reach a place.
1:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on Blue Sari in this…
He was a high class bumper horse last season: winning impressively on his debut at Gowran in January: and following up, with a narrow defeat at the hands of Envoi Allen in the Cheltenham champion bumper.
He switched his attention to hurdles at the start of this season - and was a comfortable winner on his debut at Punchestown in November.
On the back of that run, he was sent off at 6/4 for the grade 1 Future Champions Novice at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
However, he ran no race that day - and ended up a well beaten last of 4.
Obviously, that’s not good - but he was beaten so far (40 lengths), it’s fair to assume that something must have been wrong.
What I don’t know (and maybe nobody does !), is what that might have been.
As a consequence, there is a risk in backing him - though his 3 previous good runs and the fact he is trained by Willie Mullins do mitigate that…
Certainly, if he had not run over Christmas, he would be a much shorter price for todays race - possibly even favourite - so if we do ignore than run, then we have a good bet !
In fairness, he does face 3 promising rivals - so even if he is back to his best, victory will not be a formality !
Easy Work is the race favourite and he has been very impressive on his 2 hurdle outings; beating Mt Leinster on the first of them; and then hacking up at Limerick over Christmas.
It’s impossible to know how good he is - but he looks very useful.
He only beat Mt Leinster by a length and a half on their first meeting, but I would expect the form to be upheld.
Asterion Forlong is the other one of interest.
He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Naas last month - and could be anything.
2:30
This is the second massive field handicap on the card - and it looks a real minefield !
It’s honestly not a race which I would want to express a strong opinion on - though it’s very interesting that the Willie Mullins trained Cabaret Queen has managed to sneak in to the race.
She was originally the third reserve - but 3 runners have been withdrawn morning (as if by magic !).
The interesting thing with her, is that she gets to run off a mark 26lb lower than her chase mark.
More than that, she hacked up in the Leinster National back in October, off a mark 10lb higher than she runs from today.
In short, if she can replicate her chase form over hurdles, then she is highly likely to win.
Unsurprisingly, she’s not been missed in the betting - and whilst 9/2 doesn’t hold much appeal, I wouldn’t want to be laying her.
Amazingly though, she’s not even favourite for the race !
That honour goes to the Gordon Elliot trained Column of Fire.
He’s a 4/1 shot - which means that backing the pair of them, is around even money - in a 27 runner race !
Clearly, not everyone believes in the ‘random luck’ theory which I subscribe to !
In terms of longer priced runners, then there are plenty who could be given half chances.
You can Call me Al looks the most interesting of those.
He is stepping up markedly in trip for his handicap debut - and he will need to settle. However, he has plenty of scope for improvement - and can be backed at 20/1.
3:00
I was sorely tempted to get involved with this race and take on both Faugheen and Battleoverdoyen…
There can be little doubt, that Faugheen is too short in the betting.
He was a great Champion hurdler - and he’s done really well to win his 2 chases this season: but 7/4 about a 12 year old in a grade 1 novice chase, is just wrong…
I’ve less of an issue with Battleoverdoyen being that price.
He’s an improving young horse who can already boast a high level of form.
I’m not convinced that 2m5f is his best trip (I think he wants further) - but he may get away with it.
The issue is what to take them on with…
Willie Mullins provides the obvious alternatives, with Easy Game, Tornado Flyer and Castlebawn West.
I was impressed by Easy Game last time - but I suspect Tornado Flyer is the better horse.
At 8/1, he’s an option.
However, the 2 rank outsiders make far more appeal, from a ‘value’ perspective…
Myth Buster was less than 5 lengths behind Easy Game last time - and running on strongly. How he can be 80/1, when Easy Game is 5/1, is beyond me !
That said, Rachel Blackmore appears to have chosen to ride Dommage Pour Toi ahead of Myth Buster.
He finished a length behind Tornado Flyer - but well ahead of Easy Game, when the 3 of them ran over hurdles at Punchestown last May.
At 40/1, he is a great ‘value’ bet…
Whether he should be an official bet however, is a different matter.
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to be staking him heavily - but equally, I wouldn’t put anyone off having a few speculative pounds/euros/dollars on him…!
3:30
The big race of the meeting - and it’s hard to look beyond Kemboy.
He was a revelation last season: Hacking up in the Savilles Chase and the Betway Bowl - before getting the better of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Al Boom Photo, at Punchestown.
You don’t get many horses winning 3 grade 1 chases in a season - and there can be little doubt he’s from the very top draw.
He should also have ideal conditions this afternoon: as he has a preference for a flat track and decent surface.
Provided his jumping holds up, I would expect him to win.
Obviously, the issue is the price - as he’s a 6/4 shot.
Superficially, that seems short, as Delta Work beat him by over 3 lengths, at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, Kemboy was making his seasonal debut that day and raced a bit too freely. I expect he will have come on significantly for the run and will reverse the form this afternoon.
Delta Work is obviously a danger though: as too is Presenting Percy - though I do feel he needs more of a stamina test than he is likely to get this afternoon.
Chris’s Dream is possibly the most interesting runner, on the back of his impressive win in the Troytown.
However, there’s a world of difference between taking a handicap off a mark of 146 - and winning a very strong grade 1 contest.
I’ll be a little surprised if he manages anything better than a place.
Of the others, then I could Le Bagu au Roi running a big race.
She won on this card last year - and whilst she has taken some time to recover her form this season, she ran very well on her latest outing at Doncaster.
Her rating of 147 is 30lb less than Kemboys - and that suggests she has no chance (even with her 7lb allowance)
I don’t believe that - and whilst she might not be able to beat him, I suspect she can give him a bit of a race.
Certainly she makes some EW appeal - though for the winner, it has be Kemboy…
4:00
The final big field handicap of the day - and just the 24 runners.
Compared to the other 2, solving it should be easy :)
Unfortunately, that’s not actually true - in fact, pulling together a short list is probably a bit trickier than it is for the other 2 races (because few of the runners can be safely dismissed).
That said, there are 3 who interest me most: Dallas de Pictons; At the Acorn and Portmore Lough.
The first 2 named are probably the most interesting runners in the race.
Both are unexposed novices, who really could be anything.
There is a chance that either could take the race apart: but the betting is wise to that possibility.
More than that, both have got to show a lot of improvement - and their jumping will need to hold up in a much tougher race than they have previously contested…
Portmore Lough is a different beast.
He finished third on his most recent outing: in the Troytown at Navan in November.
That’s a similar race to todays, in that its a competitive big field handicap - and he had no issue with it.
He wasn’t good enough to win, but he was only beaten by Chris Dream and Fitzhenry.
The former is fourth favourite for todays grade 1 Irish Gold Cup; whilst the latter was subsequently pipped in the Paddy Power chase.
As a result of that run, Portmore Lough meets Fitzhenry on 7lb better terms today: he also has a 7lb claimer in the saddle, meaning that Fitzhenry is effectively a stone worse off.
More than that, I think Portmore Lough will be well suited by todays shorter trip - and if his first time tongue tie has the desired effect, he will almost certainly run a big race.
Ofcourse, a race like this can rarely be narrowed down to 3 - and there are plenty more for whom cases can be made.
Robin des Foret is another who will almost certainly run well - though his resolution in a finish has to be a worry.
At big prices, Mr Diablo and Glamorgan Duke are both of some interest, and could be worth small plays.
For the official tip however, I’m just going to side with Portmore Lough…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
TipsLeop 1:55 Blue Sari 1pt win 6/1
Leop 4:00 Portmore Lough 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Leop 12:55 Jeremys Flame (P )
Leop 3:00 Dommage Pour Toi (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
It’s the second day of the Dublin Racing festival - and it will be interesting to see how the ground is riding.
The general consensus yesterday, was that it was drying quickly - and to combat that, there has been selective watering, both overnight and this morning.
There has also been 3mm of rain - so it’s anyones guess how all that will work out !
Away from Dublin, they race at Musselburgh and Taunton.
There are no big races at Taunton - but I did expect there to be some races of interest at Musselburgh.
However, the fields haven’t held up as well as I hoped - and that coupled with uncertainty over the ground (following rain yesterday afternoon), means I’m inclined to swerve the meeting.
As a consequence, all my attention has been focused on Leopardstown.
Unfortunately, it’s not the most punter friendly card: with the races split between the blindingly obvious (with short priced favourites) - and the near impossible (20+ runner handicaps).
I guess no one said it was easy !
I’ve ended up with just 2 tips on the day - but some also interesting Mentions (but you'll need to read the previews to discover all of them !).
Here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races…
Leopardstown
12:55
The first of 3 big field handicaps - this one arguably look a little easier than the other 2.
That’s because it is possible to construct a short-list - though, with a lot of unexposed horses in the line-up, confidence over those with a chance, isn’t quite as high as I’d like.
The ones of main interest, are: Jeremys Flame, Concertista, Black Tears, Drury, Spruced Up and Ena Baie.
Jeremys Flame is certainly the most appealing runner, as her last time out second in the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle is much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She doesn’t look badly handicapped on a mark of 136 - and of she can again run to that level, she is very much the one to beat.
The trouble is, there could be one lurking on a low weight, who could improve sufficiently to beat her.
Spruced Up and Ena Baie look the most likely candidates - and it’s not helped that both are owned by J P McManus !
If they are expected to show big improvement, then at least the market is likely to foretell it !
I would hope that Jeremys Flame would just about have the measure of the others on the short list - so then it becomes a question of whether 6/1 is ‘value’ in a 27 runner handicap !
Instinctively, I feel not - but that’s the price on offer…
My inclination would be to wait and try to get at least 8/1 at some point before the off.
If she doesn’t drift to 8/1, then 6/1 is probably acceptable - as by then, you should also have the knowledge that nothing is massively fancied against her…
1:25
Objectively, it’s nearly impossible to oppose Aspire Tower in this.
He’s unbeaten in his 2 runs over hurdles - and in the second of those, he comfortably beat Wolf Prince, A Wave at the Sea and Clemencia.
All 3 of those re-oppose this afternoon - but there is no obvious reason why they should reverse the form.
As a consequence, Cerberus could be Aspire Towers main danger - but he is closely linked, with A Wave at the Sea - form which suggests he won’t be troubling the favourite !
Never do Nothing and Oak Park are the only others who can really be considered - but they will need to show massive improvement on their runs in maiden company, if they are to pose a threat.
It’s not impossible that either could do so - and quick ground may help them - but either one would be very speculative.
In truth, if you want to get involved with this race (and not back an odds on shot !), then it will have to be a speculative call.
Oak Park is a 40/1 shot - and that might be worth a tiny risk; similarly, Clemencia is a 33/1 shot - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to beat Aspire Tower, he may be capable of improving sufficiently to reach a place.
1:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on Blue Sari in this…
He was a high class bumper horse last season: winning impressively on his debut at Gowran in January: and following up, with a narrow defeat at the hands of Envoi Allen in the Cheltenham champion bumper.
He switched his attention to hurdles at the start of this season - and was a comfortable winner on his debut at Punchestown in November.
On the back of that run, he was sent off at 6/4 for the grade 1 Future Champions Novice at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
However, he ran no race that day - and ended up a well beaten last of 4.
Obviously, that’s not good - but he was beaten so far (40 lengths), it’s fair to assume that something must have been wrong.
What I don’t know (and maybe nobody does !), is what that might have been.
As a consequence, there is a risk in backing him - though his 3 previous good runs and the fact he is trained by Willie Mullins do mitigate that…
Certainly, if he had not run over Christmas, he would be a much shorter price for todays race - possibly even favourite - so if we do ignore than run, then we have a good bet !
In fairness, he does face 3 promising rivals - so even if he is back to his best, victory will not be a formality !
Easy Work is the race favourite and he has been very impressive on his 2 hurdle outings; beating Mt Leinster on the first of them; and then hacking up at Limerick over Christmas.
It’s impossible to know how good he is - but he looks very useful.
He only beat Mt Leinster by a length and a half on their first meeting, but I would expect the form to be upheld.
Asterion Forlong is the other one of interest.
He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Naas last month - and could be anything.
2:30
This is the second massive field handicap on the card - and it looks a real minefield !
It’s honestly not a race which I would want to express a strong opinion on - though it’s very interesting that the Willie Mullins trained Cabaret Queen has managed to sneak in to the race.
She was originally the third reserve - but 3 runners have been withdrawn morning (as if by magic !).
The interesting thing with her, is that she gets to run off a mark 26lb lower than her chase mark.
More than that, she hacked up in the Leinster National back in October, off a mark 10lb higher than she runs from today.
In short, if she can replicate her chase form over hurdles, then she is highly likely to win.
Unsurprisingly, she’s not been missed in the betting - and whilst 9/2 doesn’t hold much appeal, I wouldn’t want to be laying her.
Amazingly though, she’s not even favourite for the race !
That honour goes to the Gordon Elliot trained Column of Fire.
He’s a 4/1 shot - which means that backing the pair of them, is around even money - in a 27 runner race !
Clearly, not everyone believes in the ‘random luck’ theory which I subscribe to !
In terms of longer priced runners, then there are plenty who could be given half chances.
You can Call me Al looks the most interesting of those.
He is stepping up markedly in trip for his handicap debut - and he will need to settle. However, he has plenty of scope for improvement - and can be backed at 20/1.
3:00
I was sorely tempted to get involved with this race and take on both Faugheen and Battleoverdoyen…
There can be little doubt, that Faugheen is too short in the betting.
He was a great Champion hurdler - and he’s done really well to win his 2 chases this season: but 7/4 about a 12 year old in a grade 1 novice chase, is just wrong…
I’ve less of an issue with Battleoverdoyen being that price.
He’s an improving young horse who can already boast a high level of form.
I’m not convinced that 2m5f is his best trip (I think he wants further) - but he may get away with it.
The issue is what to take them on with…
Willie Mullins provides the obvious alternatives, with Easy Game, Tornado Flyer and Castlebawn West.
I was impressed by Easy Game last time - but I suspect Tornado Flyer is the better horse.
At 8/1, he’s an option.
However, the 2 rank outsiders make far more appeal, from a ‘value’ perspective…
Myth Buster was less than 5 lengths behind Easy Game last time - and running on strongly. How he can be 80/1, when Easy Game is 5/1, is beyond me !
That said, Rachel Blackmore appears to have chosen to ride Dommage Pour Toi ahead of Myth Buster.
He finished a length behind Tornado Flyer - but well ahead of Easy Game, when the 3 of them ran over hurdles at Punchestown last May.
At 40/1, he is a great ‘value’ bet…
Whether he should be an official bet however, is a different matter.
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to be staking him heavily - but equally, I wouldn’t put anyone off having a few speculative pounds/euros/dollars on him…!
3:30
The big race of the meeting - and it’s hard to look beyond Kemboy.
He was a revelation last season: Hacking up in the Savilles Chase and the Betway Bowl - before getting the better of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Al Boom Photo, at Punchestown.
You don’t get many horses winning 3 grade 1 chases in a season - and there can be little doubt he’s from the very top draw.
He should also have ideal conditions this afternoon: as he has a preference for a flat track and decent surface.
Provided his jumping holds up, I would expect him to win.
Obviously, the issue is the price - as he’s a 6/4 shot.
Superficially, that seems short, as Delta Work beat him by over 3 lengths, at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, Kemboy was making his seasonal debut that day and raced a bit too freely. I expect he will have come on significantly for the run and will reverse the form this afternoon.
Delta Work is obviously a danger though: as too is Presenting Percy - though I do feel he needs more of a stamina test than he is likely to get this afternoon.
Chris’s Dream is possibly the most interesting runner, on the back of his impressive win in the Troytown.
However, there’s a world of difference between taking a handicap off a mark of 146 - and winning a very strong grade 1 contest.
I’ll be a little surprised if he manages anything better than a place.
Of the others, then I could Le Bagu au Roi running a big race.
She won on this card last year - and whilst she has taken some time to recover her form this season, she ran very well on her latest outing at Doncaster.
Her rating of 147 is 30lb less than Kemboys - and that suggests she has no chance (even with her 7lb allowance)
I don’t believe that - and whilst she might not be able to beat him, I suspect she can give him a bit of a race.
Certainly she makes some EW appeal - though for the winner, it has be Kemboy…
4:00
The final big field handicap of the day - and just the 24 runners.
Compared to the other 2, solving it should be easy :)
Unfortunately, that’s not actually true - in fact, pulling together a short list is probably a bit trickier than it is for the other 2 races (because few of the runners can be safely dismissed).
That said, there are 3 who interest me most: Dallas de Pictons; At the Acorn and Portmore Lough.
The first 2 named are probably the most interesting runners in the race.
Both are unexposed novices, who really could be anything.
There is a chance that either could take the race apart: but the betting is wise to that possibility.
More than that, both have got to show a lot of improvement - and their jumping will need to hold up in a much tougher race than they have previously contested…
Portmore Lough is a different beast.
He finished third on his most recent outing: in the Troytown at Navan in November.
That’s a similar race to todays, in that its a competitive big field handicap - and he had no issue with it.
He wasn’t good enough to win, but he was only beaten by Chris Dream and Fitzhenry.
The former is fourth favourite for todays grade 1 Irish Gold Cup; whilst the latter was subsequently pipped in the Paddy Power chase.
As a result of that run, Portmore Lough meets Fitzhenry on 7lb better terms today: he also has a 7lb claimer in the saddle, meaning that Fitzhenry is effectively a stone worse off.
More than that, I think Portmore Lough will be well suited by todays shorter trip - and if his first time tongue tie has the desired effect, he will almost certainly run a big race.
Ofcourse, a race like this can rarely be narrowed down to 3 - and there are plenty more for whom cases can be made.
Robin des Foret is another who will almost certainly run well - though his resolution in a finish has to be a worry.
At big prices, Mr Diablo and Glamorgan Duke are both of some interest, and could be worth small plays.
For the official tip however, I’m just going to side with Portmore Lough…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
TipsLeop 1:55 Blue Sari 1pt win 6/1
Leop 4:00 Portmore Lough 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Leop 12:55 Jeremys Flame (P )
Leop 3:00 Dommage Pour Toi (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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