The loss of Newbury this morning, was a big blow.
I spent a lot of time on the card yesterday, and had found 3 potentially nice tips.
Obviously I was aware of the situation with the weather - and realised there may be non runners. I didn’t however, expect the meeting to be abandoned ! (I thought Doncaster and Kelso were more vulnerable).
It really does make things very difficult (and that’s ignoring the issues with regard to actually tipping !)
Still, it is what it is - and we just have to deal with it.
Ofcourse, it does mean that tips continue to be thin on the ground (just the one today) - but issuing tips for the sake of some action, would clearly be the wrong thing to do.
Here’s the rationale behind the tip that I did issue - along with my thoughts on the days other big races at Doncaster (I don’t have a strong view on any of the Kelso races).
Doncaster
1:50
I was hoping that Geordie B might drift out to an acceptable price in this (over 4/1) - but instead his price has contracted (now 7/2 best).
I do think he is just about the most likely race winner - but he faces a potentially tough rival, in the shape of Blackjack Kentucky - along with a few longer priced rival who can be given half chances.
The argument for Geordie B is that he is an unexposed, young stayer, who is likely to relish the demands of the ground at Doncaster.
He was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Newbury in November, but it simply looked as if he lacked tactical pace on relatively quick ground and I suspect he will perform much better today.
That was also only his fifth run over hurdles, so he should still have plenty of improvident left in him.
The trouble is, a similarly strong case can be made for Blackjack Kentucky.
He too is relatively unexposed and will relish the heavy ground.
The 2 of them set a high standard - but that is reflected by the odds on offer and at 9/4 and 7/2 respectively, it’s hard to side with either one.
That said, it’s also quite hard to oppose them, with what would simply be a value call…
Cases can be made for Liosduin Bhearna, Coded Message and Flemcara, to name but 3 - though non of the cases are as strong as those that can be made for the market leaders.
In short, I can’t see a betting angle (at this point in time), so it has to be a watching race.
2:25
Regardless of the abandonment of Newbury, Gino Trail was probably my best bet of the day.
In a way, that’s a little odd, as he’s a 13 year, making his seasonal debut at the end of February !
However, he can be viewed more positively…
He actually only started racing ‘properly’ when he was 10 - and hasn’t got that many miles on his clock.
Since, that point, he has consistently shown himself to be a high class handicapper - perfectly suited by 2 miles in very soft ground (the conditions, he will get this afternoon).
The high light of his career, was probably a second in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival, 2 seasons back.
That run was off a mark of 152 - today he races off a mark of 146.
He only raced 3 times last season - but on his seasonal debut, was second to Dolos at Sandown.
He was beaten 4 lengths that day - but is 17lb better off at the weights with him today.
Whilst it’s true that Dolos may have improved since then - and Gino Trail regressed - that is still a big weight turn around in just 12 months.
His second run last season wasn’t bad either: he failed by 4 lengths to give 10lb to Magic Saint. If the 2 were to meet again now, Magic Saint would have to give him 9lb…
In short, Gino Trail is a very well handicapped horse - assuming he’s not gone into decline.
At 13 I would be a little concerned about that possibility (even acknowledging his relatively low mileage) - however the fact that he has his debut run for Fergal O’Brien today, suggests that connections believe there is still plenty of life in him.
It’s not often you see a 13 year old changing stables - and a move to Fergal is rarely a bad one !
Most of his rivals can be given a chance of sorts - but non particularly stands out.
Destrier and Katpoli are the 2 I’d be most concerned about - though the former might struggle with the ground; whilst the latter is taking a big step up in class.
Simply, I think this race is Gino Trails to lose - and if Fergal has got him back close to his best, then I don’t think he’ll lose it…
3:00
On official ratings, it’s impossible to see beyond Cill Anna in this.
She is between 7lb and 20lb superior to her rivals on official ratings - and more than that, she still has plenty of scope for improvement !
On the flip side, she isn’t proven over todays trip (which will take a bit of getting) and she has been priced up at 4/6…
Clearly, she can’t be supported - the question is whether she could be opposed…
Officially, I think not - though I am quite interest in Ziggy Rose…
She is yet to win over hurdles (in 5 attempts) - and is the lowest rated runner in the field.
In a way, that makes her quite interesting, as connections are risking ruining her handicap mark, by running against some much higher rated rivals.
Ofcouse, what they are after, is ‘black type’ (which you get for being placed in a listed event) - as that will make her very valuable as a broodmare.
If she finishes a distant fourth, then they will doubtless be happy - and that makes backing her a bit tricky.
However, her last time out second placing to Legends Gold, isn’t bad form - and if the ground does turn the race into a lottery, then anything is possible…
Furthermore, her trainer, Noel Williams, has an excellent record at Doncaster; whilst her jockey, Paddy Brennan, can generally be counted on to give his horse every chance !
In short, she might be worth a tiny speculative interest, at around 20/1…
3:35
There have been numerous withdrawals from this race (2 on account of the ground; and 2 because of a double declaration), and they have made it nearly impossible to get involved.
Trying to assess it, is like trying to hit a moving target !
Initially, I quite liked the look of Yalltari - but I’m not entirely convinced that he will appreciate a slog in the mud.
That won’t be an issue for Captain Chaos or Worthy Farm: but the former is a bit of plodder; whilst the latter is taking a step up in class.
Worthy Farm looks just about the most likely winner - but at 5/2, he’s easy enough to pass…
Cesar et Rosalie is probably the most attractive potential bet in the race, at around 8/1.
However, I’ve no idea whether he will be able to cope with the ground - and he does seem best in a particular set of circumstances (chasing a strong pace).
His stamina is also unproven - and he unshipped his jockey last time - so he’s hardly got the most robust of profiles !
As it’s impossible to write off the chances of the other 3 (and with limited confidence that the goal posts won’t move again !), this has to be a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead (ie. a win for Gino Trail :) )
TVB.
Tips
Donc 2:25 Gino Trail 1pt win 7/1
Mentions
Donc 1:50 Geordie B (P )
Donc 3:00 Ziggy Rose (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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