BFHP - Feb 15th

Nordano is my main fancy in the race - and I did consider tipping him (the weather uncertainty dissuaded me).

I think Eden du Houx is worth a saver (he’s around 6/1 on the exchanges).

Malaya and Distingo are both weak in the betting - which puts me off them.

By contrast, Prudhomme and Myplaceatmidnight have both been well supported (suggesting I might have gone for the wrong ones).

Fleur D’Irlandaise is a crazy price (60 on the exchanges) and has to be worth a risk.

10 units on Nordano at 8/1
3 units on Eden du Houx at 9/2
5 units on Fleur D’Irlandaise at 40/1
2 units on Prudhomme at 10/1


Just to confirm, these are not official tips.

TVB

I suspect it is unlikely that racing will go ahead at Ascot tomorrow - but you never know !

The class 2 handicap hurdle at 3:00, is the most suitable ‘BFHP’ of the day - I’ve therefore produced a 'short-list' for it, this evening.
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.

There’s a slim chance that I might also tip in the race - and if that happens, I’ll cover the rationale in the write-up…


Ascot 3:00

The ground is likely to be very soft tomorrow (assuming racing goes ahead).

An ability to handle the likely underfoot conditions - and stay the trip - will be key.


Eden de Houx could be significantly better than his opening handicap mark of 130.
Certainly, his bumper form last season, was excellent - and he whilst he only just won his maiden last time, that may still have been a fair performance.
He is mainly about potential - but seems well regarded by his stable.

Nordano is interesting because he’s a juvenile racing in open company.
His recent runs have been against Triumph hurdle contenders - so whilst he’s been well beaten, he’s not been disgraced.
He receives a 10lb weight for age allowance - which is significant.
He also looks likely to benefit from tomorrows step up in trip.

Malaya won last season Imperial cup from a mark just 2lb lower than she races off tomorrow.
She’s disappointed since then - but has had a 2 month break since her last outing.
She will have no issues with tomorrows ground - though the trip is an unknown.

Distingo looked to be returning to from last time, at Sandown.
He travelled well to the final flight that day, before weakening out of things.
He’s been dropped 3lb for the effort - and is now potentially well handicapped.
The concern is the trip - but if he does stay, he could go close.

Fleur Irlandaise won a similar handicap at Kempton in November - and has since performed with credit, in 3 graded races.
She drops back into handicap company tomorrow - and whilst there is a question mark concerning the likely ground, her handicap mark looks feasible, as she is only 5lb higher than at Kempton.