Backing all 5 horses at best bookmakers prices - is an odds on shot.
Even backing them on the exchanges, where you can generally get better prices, it’s close to even money.
In fairness, I think that’s about right - but I can’t see much margin…
What I had hoped would happen, was that Downtown Getaway, Palmers Hill or Polish would be strongly supported - causing ‘value’ to appear elsewhere.
I would then have sided with Our Power, Howling Milan or Earth Moor - and covered stakes on Downtown and Polish.
However, that’s not the case - and non of the 3 are particularly attractively priced.
Our Power and Howling Milan can currently be backed at 14 & 12 on BF - and I’ve done that.
I’ve saved my stakes on Downtown and Polish at 6 and 9 respectively.
I wouldn’t put anyone off doing that (or similar) - but I’m not prepared to recommend taking the significantly lower prices that are currently available with the bookmakers.
TVB.
I expected to be covering either the Betway handicap chase or the Eider chase - but neither race has attracted a massive field, so I’ve opted for the opener at Kempton, instead…
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
There’s a slim chance that I might also tip in the race - and if that happens, I’ll cover the rationale in the write-up…
Kempton 12:40
I’m assuming the ground at Kempton tomorrow, will be soft - though much better than has recently tended to be the case.
I think that the field for this race, can be narrowed down to around half a dozen (from 17) - the only issue is, that the ones I fancy are all close to the head of the market.
Still, the prices will doubtless shift a little - and it will then simply be a question of balancing how much I fancy each runner, with the odds on offer…
Downtown Getaway is impossible to leave off any short-list.
He was sent off 15/8 fav for a better handicap than this, on his seasonal debut back in November. He was pulled up that day - but has since undergone wind surgery.
If that’s done the trick, then he could be thrown in off a mark of 131.
Our Power travelled really well last time, when making his debut for Nigel Twiston Davies over tomorrow's course and distance.
He didn’t get home that day - but may have needed the run.
He’s been dropped 2lb and should go close tomorrow.
Howling Milan was unlucky not to win a better handicap than this, last time.
That was at Newbury and he was 3 lengths clear, when falling at the last.
To add insult to injury, he got a 3lb rise for his effort - though if he had won, he would have got more.
Polish has only run twice over hurdles - finishing runner up on his stable debut and then winning, next time at Ludlow.
Kempton is a similar track - so the question is simply whether he is well handicapped.
That's impossible to say - but he’s hard to leave out of calculations.
Earth Moor is progressing nicely - winning on his seasonal debut and then finishing runner up to a progressive rival.
He's edging up the handicap - so will need to have improved again - but that’s quite likely to have happened.
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