Daily write-up - Feb 8th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury, Warwick and Uttoxeter in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland.

Having got used to relentless rain for most of the season, the recent dry spell has felt a bit odd.

Obviously, they overcame that last week at Leopardstown by watering ! - but neither Newbury or Warwick have taken such measures this weekend (so far as I’m aware !).

As a consequence, the ground at both courses will have the word ‘good’ in the description - which will suit a different set of horses…

A couple weeks ago I sent out an email concerning ‘tipping issues’.
At the time, I said that I would look to tip more horses that fancied - accepting that the margins in the prices wouldn’t always be there.

The races weren’t there either, last weekend - but this weekend is different,

There are suitable races at both Newbury and Warwick - so I’ve tipped the horses I fancy and worried less about the prices.
Hopefully non of you have chased them down (as that is likely to be a mistake !).

Last night I also sent out the first ‘BRHP’ short-list - to try and tackle the Betfair hurdle.
I will probably be identifying bets for the race, as you are reading this :)

So all in all, a busy day - with a slightly different twist !

There are some nice races though, so hopefully I can manage to find a winner or two (even if the prices aren’t great !).

Anyway, here’s the rationale behind the tips that I’ve issued - plus my thoughts on the days other big races (aside from the Betfair hurdle).


Newbury

1:50

I had intended to tip Acey Milan in this.
When I looked at the race yesterday, I felt he had a fair chance - and the early price of 8/1, was quite attractive.
However, I clearly wasn’t the only one who felt that way !
By tipping time this morning, his price had halved (4/1) - and it continues in free-fall…
He’s that kind of horse - lots of talent and probably well handicapped.
He therefore gets very well backed - but the fact he’s been a beaten favourite in 5 of his last 8 races, suggests the value call, is take him on at a short price…
In truth, this looks a pretty open race.
Intriguingly, the 4 horses who headed the market at first show (One for the Team, Dolphin Square, Anytime will do and Vive le Roi), ran against each other in a similar race over this course, back in November.
More than that, they managed to finish 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th, behind Champagne on Ice.
The weights aren’t massively different today - and it’s relatively easy to make a case for any of the 4 coming out on top, in the re-match.
That makes Vive le Roi interesting, from a ‘value’ perspective.
He actually finished runner up that race - so is the easiest one to make a case for (he just needs to repeat the form !).
However, he is the oldest of the quartet - and most exposed - which is why he’s proved the least attractive in the betting.
However, he has a few things in his favour: firstly, he may get an uncontested lead (unless Acey Milan takes him on); secondly, he will have no issue with the good ground; and thirdly, all his best form is at Newbury.
Ultimately, this just comes downs to chances and odds - and I think at 12/1, he is a quite a bit over-priced.

2:25

The presence of Altior, makes this a tough race to get involved with…
He’s one of the best chasers of recent years - and whilst he did lose his hitherto unbeaten run over obstacles last time, that doesn’t make him a poor horse.
In fact, his defeat at the hands of Cyrname was perfectly understandable - as the race took place in conditions that perfectly suited the winner.
That said, Altior didn’t look his best that day - and a few doubt were also creeping in last season…
Ultimately, these horses have only go so many miles in their legs - and his are getting quite well worn !
If he is back to his best today, he will win - and Nicky Henderson appear quite bullish.
That said, I’m never inclined to read much into trainers comments, in these kind of situations (I think they struggle to be objective).
If he weren’t in the race, then I would be very keen on Sceau Royal.
Not only is he the second best horse in the race on official ratings - he will be perfectly suited by quick ground and 2 miles.
At the weights, Kalashnikov has a similar chance - but he could find todays race happening a bit too quickly for him.
I did briefly consider tipping Sceau Royal EW - but if Altior is back to his best, he won’t beat him (so we then get 2/1 about him finishing second).
A better better is either to back Sceau Royal in the w/o Altior market (I’ve taken a bit of 7/2) - or to do a straight forecast Altior to beat Sceau Royal - along with a win bet on Sceau Royal.
However, non of these options really lend themselves to official tips, so officially speaking , it has to be a watching race.

3:00

Whilst the betting suggests that Native River is home and hosed in this, there is a theoretical argument that Might Bite is worth supporting, at a decent price.
The 2 of them famously fought out the finish to the 2018 Gold Cup, with Native River coming out on top, after a protracted struggle.
However, the soft ground that day, would have suited him more than it would Might Bite - whilst the latter is also 6lb better off today.
Certainly, if this race was taking place a month after that Gold Cup, I would be all over Might Bite (particular as Richard Johnson is unable to ride Native River today).
However, it’s now almost 2 years since the clash - and a lot of water has subsequently passed under the bridge.
In truth, both horses have probably declined - though that is more obvious for Might Bite.
He struggled in 3 races last season - and he’s not even managed to complete the course in 2 attempts, this campaign.
And that’s why he can be backed at 6/1.
That said, with the remaining runners rated at least stone inferior to the ‘big 2’, there is a temptation to take a small risk on him bouncing back.
The trouble is, when horses go into decline, it’s often hard to gauge how far they have fallen.
The official handicapper thinks that, Might Bite has dropped 9lb from his peak - but he is guessing…
The bottom line is, I feel it’s hard to tip him, with so many doubts hanging over him.
However, if Nicky Henderson has managed to rekindle the flame - then in under  perfect conditions, he should certainly be able to give Native River a good race.

3:35

This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…

4:10

Despite the fact he carries top weight and is up against some dangerous looking rivals, I want to side with Mount des Avaloirs in this.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut behind Champ, at this course back in November.
That was a really strong race - and despite having his first run over fences Mount des Avaloirs showed real promise.
He was never in a position to win - but stayed on strongly, to finish fourth - beaten just 7 lengths.
His next race was a match at Ascot. But he was unsuited by the heavy ground - and was well beaten by Angels Breath.
I’m not reading much into that - and I think we will get to see what he is capable of, this afternoon.
The fact that he was sent off fav for the big handicap hurdle at Ascot, last December: and then at just 7/1 for last seasons Betfair hurdle, gives an indication of the regard in which he is held.
He didn’t feature in the finish of either of those races - but 3 miles over fences is going to suit him much better.
I’m sure he will eventually be rated a fair bit higher than his current mark of 142 - the only question is whether he can give weight today, to some very promising rivals…
Certainly, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the chances of Highest Sun or Present Value; though the former might be feeling the effects of a few hard races; whilst the latter might find the ground riding a touch too quick.
The other one I fear, is Post War.
He made his comeback a very long absence, at this track in December - and ran with a fair amount of promise.
There is always the danger that the race will have set him back, rather than brought him on - but if he has improved, then Mount Des Avaloirs could have his work cut out conceding him 19lb.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth making an official saver.


Warwick

2:05

Nube Negra is clearly the one to beat in this.
He was pretty limited as a hurdler - but has looked a completely different beast, since being sent over fences.
He was an impressive winner over today course, on his chasing debut in October: and followed that up with an equally comprehensive romp, at Fakenham later that month.
The feature both times, was his fast accurate jumping - and that was again on evidence, on his most recent start.
That was in the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown - and whilst he couldn’t quite get to Esprit du Large that day, he still ran a mighty race to finish second…
Some way back in fourth place that day, was Torpillo.
Like Nubre Negra, he had been might impressive on his previous chase start, when comfortably beating Mister Fisher.
Subsequent events have shown that to be a very strong piece of form - although as with Nubre Negra, it was more the manner of the win, rather than the substance which impressed.
So much so, that Torpillo was sent off a 13/8 fav for the Henry VIII chase - but he disappointed badly.
Having led early, he was beaten as soon as he was challenged - and eventually trailed in over 20 lengths behind the winner.
That wasn’t his form.
I’m hoping that he was just feeling the effects of his 2 previous hard races - and will bounce back today.
In truth, even if he does, he will have his work cut out to contain Nubre Negra, who has clearly been targeted at this race.
However, this game is about odds and probabilities - and if the Henry VIII hadn’t been run, then the market would be struggling to pick between the pair.
At 5/4 and 7/1, there really can only be one bet in the race.
Non of the other 4 can be completely dismissed - but I do think the race will be won by either Nubre Negra or Torpillo.
Fingers crossed it’s the latter !

2:40

I’m really keen on Indefatigable in this - and whilst she is favourite, I can’t really understand why her price isn’t shorter…
Granted, she is only a few pounds superior to a couple of her rivals on official ratings - but she is rated the best horse in the race - and todays test should be perfect for her.
I honestly didn’t think I would be able to tip her - and I spent a fair bit of time thinking about what price I would consider acceptable.
I wouldn’t ever want to take less than 2/1, because of the random luck element - but I would still have been tempted at that price.
Needless to say, at 11/4 (or better !) stakes had to be adjusted, slightly…
In terms of the case for her, then she is just a very solid, likeable mare - who’s second and third runs this season, represent much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She ran Lady Buttons to less than 2 lengths, back in November; and then followed that up by finishing second to Dame de Compagnie in a very hot handicap at Cheltenhams December meeting.
She’s only run once since then, when disappointing at Sandown, early last month.
However that race was run on very soft ground, which she didn’t appear to handle.
Back on a sounder surface, she is very much the one to beat.
In terms of her rivals, then nothing particularly jumps out.
Legends Gold is the obvious one, as she is the next highest rated. However, I do wonder if her rating flatters her a little (she won well last time, but Ben Jones was riding her, so that was a ‘free’ 5lb !).
Cap Soleil and Ch’ti Diamond are both hard to assess - so could take a step forward.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved with them.
There is little guesswork involved with Indefatigable - just whether she is over her Sandown exertions.
If she is, I expect her to win.

3:15

Two Taffs is another one I expect to win (it’s like waiting for a bus !).
In fairness, he faces stiffer competition that Indefatigable - but I’ll be a little disappointed if he can’t get the better of them.
He was a very useful novice chaser, 3 seasons back - when he ran third at the Cheltenham festival, before winning a decent race at Ayr's Scottish national meeting.
The expectation was that he would go on from that - however, he only ran once - the following October - prior to his run over hurdles, at Wetherby, this November.
Clearly there have been issues with him - but his Wetherby run suggested he retained all of his old ability.
That was borne out later in the month, when he travelled with real purpose in the Ladbroke trophy - but didn’t see out the 3m2f trip.
He drops back to 2m4f today - the distance over which he’s run his best races.
I suspect he has been targeted at this race by Dan Skelton (Warwick is his local) track - and whilst he does face some dangerous looking rivals, I think he’ll take a bit of beating.
Belami des Pictons is the obvious one to fear - in his first time cheek pieces.
However, he is becoming a little disappointing - and I can’t see the quickening ground, suiting him.
Course winner, King of Realms is another possibility; as is Clondaw Castle - but both have question marks over them.
Ultimately, I think Two Taffs is the most likely race winner - and whilst I don’t think there is much in his price, I did say I’d try to focus more on the race winners and less on value bets !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Warw 2:05 Torpillo 0.5pt win 7/1
Warw 2:40 Indefatigable 1.5pt win 11/4 
Warw 3:15 Two Taffs 1pt win 3/1 
Newb 1:50 Vive le Roi 0.5pt win 12/1

Newb 4:10 Mount des Avaloirs 0.75pt win 9/2
Newb 4:10 Post War 0.25pt win 9/1 (saver)

Mentions

Newb 2:25 Sceau Royal (w/o Altior)
Newb 3:00 Might Bite (S )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions