Daily write-up - Feb 1st

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby in the UK - plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

As I suggested might be the case in my ‘plans for the weekend’ email, it’s a crazy day !

The first day of the Dublin Racing Festival, has produced as good a card as you’ll see this side of Cheltenham; and whilst the UK racing can’t match the quality, there are plenty of big races, at Sandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby.

In all the years I’ve been tipping/previewing, I struggle to remember a day when there have been so many big races.

I’ve previewed 14 of them - and I could easily have done 4 or 5 more !

It’s always hard to do justice, to that kind of number - but I’ve given it a good go !
I reckon I’m well into double figure hours already - and a race has yet to be run !

It was my intention this weekend, to focus on trying to find winners (as opposed to value bets), to try and improve the strike rate (which has dipped over the last few weeks).
Studying yesterday, I felt I’d found some suitable horses - but when the first shows began to appear, I quickly realised that many others were viewing things the same way !

I had about about half a dozen strong fancies - but all of them were priced up around 2/1, or less.
In relatively big field NH races, you need some margin in the price for luck - and prices that low, just don’t allow it.

As a consequence, I’ve had to switch back to value based bets - and we’ll need to keep our fingers crossed that luck is smiling on us.

All of the short priced strong fancies are in the write-up - and ofcourse, there is a chance that some of them will drift and become decent bets.
However, if that does happen however, it will be too late for them to be official tips.

Anyway, I ended up with just the 4 tips on the day - which isn’t very many considering the effort I put in !
That said, if just one of them wins, I’ll be happy !!

Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my extensive thoughts on the many of the days other big races…


Leopardstown

12:50

The festival opens with the first of its 8 Grade 1 races.
The 2m6f novice hurdle is unlikely to be the best race run at the meeting - but it’s competitive enough.
As is often the nature of such contests, it’s difficult to choose between the main protagonists, with a deal of confidence.
All have shown a good level of form - and more importantly, have plenty of scope for improvement.
Of the market leaders, I like Latest Exhibition and Elixir D’Ainey best: However, Longhouse Poet could easily improve sufficiently to give them both a race.
Assemble and Cobblers Way are both much bigger prices - but it wouldn’t be a great surprise if either one out-ran their odds.
This said, there is too much guesswork required - and no obvious angle to justify getting involved, so it has to be a watching race.

1:25

The second grade 1 of the day, is arguably the race of the meeting.
It features a re-match of the grade 1 from the Leopardstown Christmas meeting, in which A Plus Tard got the better of Chacun Pour Soir.
Chacun was a strong favourite that day - and despite losing out by almost 4 lengths, is likely to be sent off favourite again today.
That’s because he was considered to be at a fitness disadvantage in December - and the expectation is that with that run under his belt, he’ll turn the tables.
I’m not entirely convinced myself - certainly, at the current odds, A Plus Tard makes  greater appeal.
That said, this is far form a 2 horse race.
In addition to Chacun, Willie Mullins also saddles Min and Cilaos Emery.
Min has won the 2 previous runnings of this race: and whilst Cilaos can’t match that level of form over fences, he is unbeaten over the larger obstacles - and a grade 1 winner over hurdles.
It says much for the regard that Chacun is held, that he is a 6/4 shot to beat his 2 stablemates - never mind A Plus Tard.
If he remains strong in the betting through the off, I suspect he will come home in front.
In terms of ‘value’ then Duc Des Genievres makes some appeal.
He won last years Arkle chase: and whilst that race probably took little winning, it’s still surprising to him priced up at 33/1 for this.
A Plus Tard beat him by just over 3 lengths at Naas, last December - and on that form, he has a chance.
He also ran well last time out at Kempton, when runner up to Bun Doran.
It’s hard to see him winning todays race - but at around 8/1 a place, he might be capable of sneaking into the frame (particularly if any of the big 4 under-perform/encounter mishaps).

2:00

There’s another big re-match from the Leopardstown Christmas meeting taking place here - with Notebook and Fakir D’Oudaries re-opposing.
Notebook came out best when they met at Christmas - and is priced up to confirm the form today.
I’m a massive fan of Fakir - but I’m not convinced that he’s a 2 mile horse.
I suspect he will be ridden more aggressively today - but whether that will see him reverse the form, is a different matter.
Certainly, there looked to be little fluke, in Notebooks win last time - but I wonder how good the form actually is…
Prior to that win, Notebook wasn’t consider a grade 1 horse - and whilst there is no doubt that he has improved for fences, I still feel he’s a bit to prove.
In the circumstances, I’m inclined to take them both on - and Willie Mullins provides 3 possible alternatives…
It’s not that easy to choose between Melon, Bapaume and Cash Back - but Paul Townend has already done so.
He’s plumped for Melon - and I’m inclined to agree.
Certainly, he was the best of these over hurdles - twice finishing runner up to in the Champion hurdle.
Often top class hurdlers don’t make top class chasers - but I’ve been really impressed with his fencing. He attacks the fences with relish - and whilst he did make a bad mistake at the last, on his most recent outing, he still had sufficient class to win
In fairness, a narrow victory over Gallant John Joe, is not good enough to win a race of this nature: Whilst he is held by Fakir on his debut run over fences, though he probably needed that run.
However, I’m pretty sure he is capable of taking his form to a much higher level - and hopefully he will do just that, this afternoon.
Bapaume is the other one of potential interest - though all his best form is over further and I wonder whether he will have the speed for a relatively quick 2 miles around Leopardstown.
If he does, he’s likely to go very close.
Cash Back can also be given a chance - though I don’t think he has quite the class of his 2 stablemates.

2:35

This race probably isn’t quite as competitive as the numbers suggest - but it still requires a bit of sorting !
The 2 mile chasing division in Ireland, tends to be relatively weak - which means it is  open to exploitation by half decent novices…
Debuchet and Eclair de Beaufeu are 2 such runners in this - and their chances need to be respected.
Paloma Blue, Charlie Stout and Quamino are all second season novices - and whilst they don’t have quite the same scope for improvement, they are still likely to be on an upward curve.
Victory for any of the 5 named, wouldn’t be a massive surprise - but the one I like best in the race is Snugsborough Hall.
He won a very decent chase at last seasons Punchestown festival - and it looks as if he has been aimed at this race.
He’s only run once since that win - when finishing fourth over hurdles, at Punchestown last month.
He ran a nice race that day - considering it was almost certainly just a pipe opener…
The issue with him is that he was raised 16lb for his Punchestown win - and as he’s a 9 year old, you do wonder whether he has that much improvement in him.
I’d probably be prepared to take a chance on him, at a price - but 6/1 leaves no margin for error, in a race of this nature.
If he drifts out to around 8/1, then he would definitely be of interest - but for official purposes, I can only watch…

3:10

It’s highly likely that the winner of this race will be one of the top 3 in the betting - but figuring out which one, is a bit trickier…
A lot will depend on the state of the ground, with Honeysuckle and Klassical Dream wanting it heavy and Sharjah wanting it on the quick side.
In truth, Honeysuckle doesn’t actually need heavy ground - but what she is likely to need is a good stamina test - and she is most likely to get that if the ground is very soft.
If that is the case, then she may well be capable of holding off Klassical Dream - as that one has disappointed so far this season.
If he were to bounce back to his form of last season, then he would be the one to beat.
However, there is no obvious reason why that should happen, so supporting him would be a bit of an act of faith…
If the ground is on the quick side, then it’s all likely to be immaterial.
Sharjah should have too much speed for the pair of them.
It could certainly be argued that he’s a fair bet at around 2/1 - assuming the ground is no worse than the soft side of good…
It’s hard to make a case for anything outside the big 3.
Petite Mouchoir shouldn’t beat Sharjah: whilst Supasundae is now 10, and past his peak.
It’s interesting that Monsieur Lecoq has been sent over by Jane Williams - and I could see him running well and maybe sneaking a place.
It takes more imagination to see him coming home in front, however !

3:45

I really don’t get why Embittered is such a big price in this…
Granted he’s up against 22 rivals - but he has a very attractive profile for a race of this nature, and I would have expected him to be well found in the betting.
He’s only run 3 times over hurdles - so is very unexposed.
He won on his hurdling debut at Naas in November, beating the highly rated Blackbow.
On the back of that win, he was pitched into grade 1 company - and ran a perfectly respectable fifth, to Envoi Allen, beaten less than 10 lengths.
His most recent outing was again in Grade 1 company, and he was sent off at just 5/1 to beat Abacadabas and 2 other rivals.
However, he ran a disappointing race and finished a well beaten third.
He’ll need to bounce back from that - but it’s the only blot on an otherwise excellent copy book, so I’m prepared to take a chance that he will do just that.
In truth, it’s hard to know how well handicapped he is…
However, a mark of 140 seems reasonable to me, for a horse who has run well in grade 1 company - and that ignores his obvious potential for improvement.
It also ignores the 7lb claim of his rider, Hugh Morgan - and he is very good value for his allowance.
Obviously, in a race of this nature, potential dangers abound.
Unexpected and Tiger Tap Tap are 2 other handicap debutantes who I could see running well: whilst Buildmeupbuttercup and Thatsy, represent top connections and also have room for improvement.
All of the above named are trading at single figure prices, however - whilst Embittered is around 20/1.
For that reason alone, he has to be worth a small speculative play.


Sandown

1:15

I find it hard to look past First Flow in this.
I tipped him last time he ran (as a saver), when he finished third at Ascot.
He ran a fair race that day - but bumped into a very well handicapped rival and ultimately could only finish third.
His mark has not been changed - which suggests he could be vulnerable today - but I don’t think that’s how it will work out.
He was given a very aggressive ride at Ascot - and didn’t really get home.
He’s cut back in trip today, which I think will help him.
He’s also got a change of jockey, with David Bass replaced by a 5lb claimer.
In truth, the case for him is as much about the lack of strong opposition…
Dolos is second favourite - but he’ll have a job on, winning the race from a mark 8lb higher than he ran from when successful 12 months ago.
Delire Destruval and Joke Dancer are both higher in the handicap following recent good runs - and the feeling is they may struggle to justify their new marks.
Caid du Lin definitely looks handicapped to the max: whilst it’s a big ask for Diakali to take this on his seasonal debut.
In short, I am pretty keen on First Flow.
The only issues are that David Bass seems to have chosen to go to Wetherby, rather than ride him (having ridden the horse in all but one of his previous starts) - and the price !
7/4 is short in a 6 horse race - I feel that 5/2 is the minimum I would want to entertain.

1:50

Call me Lord should take a lot of beating in this.
He’s the best horse in the race - and 2 miles, right handed, on soft ground, are his ideal conditions.
He managed to win the International hurdle at Cheltenham on his most recent outing, despite there being a doubt over his ability to go left handed.
More than that, he beat Ballyandy that day - and that one subsequently came out and franked the form by wining the Champion hurdle trial at Haydock.
In short, Call me Lord looks almost bomb proof - though I guess that’s what you’d expect from a 4/6 shot !
According to official ratings, Elvorado Allen is the one most likely to bustle him up - but there’s a lot of guesswork involved with him.
There’s also a lot of guesswork involved with Zambella - and whilst I wouldn’t really suggest opposing Call me Lord, if I were to, then the 20/1 on Zambella would make  a fair bit more appeal than the 5/2 on Elvorado Allen.

2:25

All things being equal, Laurina should win this.
On official ratings, she is at least 7lb superior to all of her rivals - and yet she actually receives the 7lb mares allowance from them !
As a consequence, she should have a stone in hand.
More than that, 2m4f in soft ground should be her ideal conditions - whilst the fact that Willie Mullins sends her over for the race, is a tip in itself.
It would be hard to argue, if she was an odds on shot - and yet, she can be backed at 7/4…
That’s mainly because she disappointed badly on her most recent outing at Leopardstown over Christmas.
She bled that day, which is obviously a concern - however, there is every possibility, that was a one off event…
If it was - then provided she runs close to form, she should win this - though in the circumstances, it would be hard to support her.
That said, it’s also hard to support something against her, knowing that if she does bounce back, she is likely to win.
Good boy Bobby and Grnad Sancy, are the obvious ones to oppose her with - as both are talented performers who will be well suited by todays test.
That said, I did toy with taking a chance on Vision des Flos.
He’s a horse I like - and on official ratings, he has every chance.
He will also handle very soft ground better than most, so he should run a big race.
The only issue is that his connections seem luke warm on him - and whilst you always have to treat that kind of thing with a degree of scepticism, I can’t think why they would want to talk down his chance.
In the circumstances, I’ve decided it’s a race best watched.
I don’t think he would beat a peak form Laurina - and that in itself, is reason to question supporting him.
If she does disappoint, then there are a few who could take advantage - and he is certainly one of them.
however, even in that scenario, he would be no certainty - so a watching brief seems the best call.

3:00

This is an incredibly competitive race - and whilst I did originally intend to get involved with it, I eventually decide that it is probably best watched…
3 miles in the Sandown mud, is going to take a lot of getting - and I hoped that identifying horses with suspect stamina, would enable me reduce the field.
To an extent, it does - but not by nearly as much as I would like !
My short list consists of Ask Dillon, Ask Ben, Big Shark, Remastered and Dan McGrue - but there are a similar number of potential dangers.
Ask Dillon is the one I like most.
He ran well on his seasonal debut at Chepstow over Christmas, and I don’t envisage him having any issue with conditions.
He should certainly run his race - but whether there is any margin in a price of 7/1, is debatable.
From a pure value perspective, Dan McGrue is the most attractive option, at 16/1.
That said, he’s a big price for one with his connections (he’s trained by Paul Nichols) - which does make me a little suspicious...
Ultimately, it feels like the kind of race which I could turn round and round - without ever finding a worthwhile angle.
For that reason alone, I think it is best just watched…

3:35

This is also quite a competitive race - though not in the same league as the one that precedes it !
Of the 12 runners, then I’m reasonably happy to dismiss half, which leaves me a manageable number, from which to try and find a bet.
The ones of most interest, are Classic Ben, Cloudy Glen, Deise Aba, Diable de Sivola and Le Rocher.
Classic Ben is a bit short in the betting (4/1); whilst it would be hard to support Cloudy Glen at 7/1, on the back of him running out last time.
He’s definitely a danger - but probably more one to back in running, once you know that he’s prepared to race !
Cases can be made for all the other 3 - but the one I like best, is Le Rocher.
He’s been around for years (he won a grade 1 contest on his UK debut, in 2013 !) - but is still only 10.
He’s had various injury issues, which have seen him miss chunks of time - but he seems to retain all of his ability.
He’s a horse with a marked preference for heavy ground - and whilst he will be running today over 3 miles for the first time in the UK, it has looked in his more recent races, as if he will relish the distance.
In terms of pure ability, there is little doubt, that he is potentially well handicapped on a mark of 140 and his comeback run at Wincanton, a month ago, showed him in good form.
In short, there is nothing not to like about him - and I expect him to run very well.
Diable de Sivola isn’t as sure to relish the ground - and I always have reservations concerning first time head gear, on a horse stepping up in trip.
The main concern with Diese Aba is whether his jumping will be up to negotiating the tricky Sandown fences. If he happens to take to the course, then he has the potential to be Le Rochers biggest danger.


Musselburgh

2:05

Ashington was one of the horses who I was very keen on, when I first looked through todays cards.
He was a very short priced favourite, when beaten in a similar race, over todays course and distance, on New Years day.
Running off the same mark today, it’s not necessarily obvious why he should do any better.
However, he chased a very strong pace that day - and was collared after jumping the last.
He travelled through that race like the best horse - and given a more restrained ride today, I would expect him to take a lot of beating.
The trouble is, everyone else clearly views things the same way !
Despite the presence of an impressive last time out winner for Paul Nichols (Miranda); and a Tom Lacey horse who was heavily backed last time (Sebastapol), Ashington has still be made the 9/4 fav.
In a 10 horse race, where 4 or 5 have a chance, that is just too short.
In fact, rather than side with him, I’m going to take a speculative stance against him !
For Three looked a progressive horse when winning a couple of small races at Hexham last May.
He reappeared at Carlisle, in October and travelled well that day, until a lack of fitness seemed to catch him out, up the home straight.
I expected him to be of interest on his next outing - but he wasn’t seen again until running on the AW at Newcastle, a fortnight ago.
I’ve no idea why he was off the track for so long - but he clearly needed the run at Newcastle, as he pulled for the first mile of that mile and a half race.
Ultimately he finished well beaten - but I suspect the race had the desired effect (to take the freshness out of him).
He’s clearly a speculative one - but the market is so skewed by the favourite, I think he is worth a tiny risk, at a very big price, to build on the promise he had been showing.

2:40

I’m very keen on Greaneteen in this - just not so keen on the price !
I was really taken by his last time out win at Ascot, where he tanked through the race  - but still found sufficient up the home straight, to win comfortably.
He was raised 6lb for that performance - but he gave the impression he was value for a fair bit more than that.
In theory, he faces slightly better opposition today (running in a class 2 race - as opposed to class 3 last time) - but I doubt that’s the case.
In the Ascot race he faced 5 progressive novices - and whilst today, he has 9 rivals to beat, only a couple of them look realistic dangers.
And I guess that’s why he’s a best priced 15/8 !
In truth, I can’t really argue with that - or ask for much more.
The trouble is, he’s an inexperienced novice and this will only be his second run over fences. He’s got 8 fences to negotiate - and will need to stay out of trouble.
I think you would want at least even money about him jumping round cleanly and not encountering bad luck - so 15/8 about him winning, seems tight.
In all probability, he will do just that - and I wouldn’t put off anyone from supporting him.
If he were to drift to 5/2, then I would be prepared to get involved - but that hasn’t happened yet, so he can’t be a tip…

3:15

This is an interesting race because I suspect that most of the runners are competing in the expectation of getting good ground - and they may end up disappointed !
Caroles Destrier, Wonderful Charm, Bob Mahler, Sumkindofking and Chic Name have all got a marked preference for decent ground - but a lot of rain has fallen in the Edinburgh area, recently.
If it’s got into the ground, then that is likely to compromise their chances.
In that scenario, Arthurs Gift would become very interesting.
He too might prefer better ground - but he is likely to handle soft better than many of his rivals.
Ofcourse, soft ground will also make it an even more extreme test of stamina, which would put a further question mark against most of those listed…
Without having confidence over the conditions, it’s not a race that you can play in.
If the ground is just on the soft side of good (as the current report suggest), then Bob Mahler is the one that interests me most.
His stamina is unproven - but he looks likely to appreciate the extra distance.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Leop 2:00 Melon 1pt win 6/1
Leop 3:45 Embittered 0.5pt win 20/1
Sand 3:35 Le Rocher 0.75pt win 11/1

Mentions

Leop 1:25 A Plus Tard (O )
Leop 2:35 Snugsborough Hall (P )
Leop 3:10 Sharjah (P )
Sand 1:15 First Flow (P )
Sand 2:25 Vision des Flos (C )
Sand 3:00 Ask Dillon (O )
Muss 2:40 Greaneteen (P )
Muss 3:15 Arthurs Gift (C )

The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions