It’s the second day of the Dublin Racing festival - and it will be interesting to see how the ground is riding.
The general consensus yesterday, was that it was drying quickly - and to combat that, there has been selective watering, both overnight and this morning.
There has also been 3mm of rain - so it’s anyones guess how all that will work out !
Away from Dublin, they race at Musselburgh and Taunton.
There are no big races at Taunton - but I did expect there to be some races of interest at Musselburgh.
However, the fields haven’t held up as well as I hoped - and that coupled with uncertainty over the ground (following rain yesterday afternoon), means I’m inclined to swerve the meeting.
As a consequence, all my attention has been focused on Leopardstown.
Unfortunately, it’s not the most punter friendly card: with the races split between the blindingly obvious (with short priced favourites) - and the near impossible (20+ runner handicaps).
I guess no one said it was easy !
I’ve ended up with just 2 tips on the day - but some also interesting Mentions (but you'll need to read the previews to discover all of them !).
Here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races…
Leopardstown
12:55
The first of 3 big field handicaps - this one arguably look a little easier than the other 2.
That’s because it is possible to construct a short-list - though, with a lot of unexposed horses in the line-up, confidence over those with a chance, isn’t quite as high as I’d like.
The ones of main interest, are: Jeremys Flame, Concertista, Black Tears, Drury, Spruced Up and Ena Baie.
Jeremys Flame is certainly the most appealing runner, as her last time out second in the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle is much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She doesn’t look badly handicapped on a mark of 136 - and of she can again run to that level, she is very much the one to beat.
The trouble is, there could be one lurking on a low weight, who could improve sufficiently to beat her.
Spruced Up and Ena Baie look the most likely candidates - and it’s not helped that both are owned by J P McManus !
If they are expected to show big improvement, then at least the market is likely to foretell it !
I would hope that Jeremys Flame would just about have the measure of the others on the short list - so then it becomes a question of whether 6/1 is ‘value’ in a 27 runner handicap !
Instinctively, I feel not - but that’s the price on offer…
My inclination would be to wait and try to get at least 8/1 at some point before the off.
If she doesn’t drift to 8/1, then 6/1 is probably acceptable - as by then, you should also have the knowledge that nothing is massively fancied against her…
1:25
Objectively, it’s nearly impossible to oppose Aspire Tower in this.
He’s unbeaten in his 2 runs over hurdles - and in the second of those, he comfortably beat Wolf Prince, A Wave at the Sea and Clemencia.
All 3 of those re-oppose this afternoon - but there is no obvious reason why they should reverse the form.
As a consequence, Cerberus could be Aspire Towers main danger - but he is closely linked, with A Wave at the Sea - form which suggests he won’t be troubling the favourite !
Never do Nothing and Oak Park are the only others who can really be considered - but they will need to show massive improvement on their runs in maiden company, if they are to pose a threat.
It’s not impossible that either could do so - and quick ground may help them - but either one would be very speculative.
In truth, if you want to get involved with this race (and not back an odds on shot !), then it will have to be a speculative call.
Oak Park is a 40/1 shot - and that might be worth a tiny risk; similarly, Clemencia is a 33/1 shot - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to beat Aspire Tower, he may be capable of improving sufficiently to reach a place.
1:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on Blue Sari in this…
He was a high class bumper horse last season: winning impressively on his debut at Gowran in January: and following up, with a narrow defeat at the hands of Envoi Allen in the Cheltenham champion bumper.
He switched his attention to hurdles at the start of this season - and was a comfortable winner on his debut at Punchestown in November.
On the back of that run, he was sent off at 6/4 for the grade 1 Future Champions Novice at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
However, he ran no race that day - and ended up a well beaten last of 4.
Obviously, that’s not good - but he was beaten so far (40 lengths), it’s fair to assume that something must have been wrong.
What I don’t know (and maybe nobody does !), is what that might have been.
As a consequence, there is a risk in backing him - though his 3 previous good runs and the fact he is trained by Willie Mullins do mitigate that…
Certainly, if he had not run over Christmas, he would be a much shorter price for todays race - possibly even favourite - so if we do ignore than run, then we have a good bet !
In fairness, he does face 3 promising rivals - so even if he is back to his best, victory will not be a formality !
Easy Work is the race favourite and he has been very impressive on his 2 hurdle outings; beating Mt Leinster on the first of them; and then hacking up at Limerick over Christmas.
It’s impossible to know how good he is - but he looks very useful.
He only beat Mt Leinster by a length and a half on their first meeting, but I would expect the form to be upheld.
Asterion Forlong is the other one of interest.
He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Naas last month - and could be anything.
2:30
This is the second massive field handicap on the card - and it looks a real minefield !
It’s honestly not a race which I would want to express a strong opinion on - though it’s very interesting that the Willie Mullins trained Cabaret Queen has managed to sneak in to the race.
She was originally the third reserve - but 3 runners have been withdrawn morning (as if by magic !).
The interesting thing with her, is that she gets to run off a mark 26lb lower than her chase mark.
More than that, she hacked up in the Leinster National back in October, off a mark 10lb higher than she runs from today.
In short, if she can replicate her chase form over hurdles, then she is highly likely to win.
Unsurprisingly, she’s not been missed in the betting - and whilst 9/2 doesn’t hold much appeal, I wouldn’t want to be laying her.
Amazingly though, she’s not even favourite for the race !
That honour goes to the Gordon Elliot trained Column of Fire.
He’s a 4/1 shot - which means that backing the pair of them, is around even money - in a 27 runner race !
Clearly, not everyone believes in the ‘random luck’ theory which I subscribe to !
In terms of longer priced runners, then there are plenty who could be given half chances.
You can Call me Al looks the most interesting of those.
He is stepping up markedly in trip for his handicap debut - and he will need to settle. However, he has plenty of scope for improvement - and can be backed at 20/1.
3:00
I was sorely tempted to get involved with this race and take on both Faugheen and Battleoverdoyen…
There can be little doubt, that Faugheen is too short in the betting.
He was a great Champion hurdler - and he’s done really well to win his 2 chases this season: but 7/4 about a 12 year old in a grade 1 novice chase, is just wrong…
I’ve less of an issue with Battleoverdoyen being that price.
He’s an improving young horse who can already boast a high level of form.
I’m not convinced that 2m5f is his best trip (I think he wants further) - but he may get away with it.
The issue is what to take them on with…
Willie Mullins provides the obvious alternatives, with Easy Game, Tornado Flyer and Castlebawn West.
I was impressed by Easy Game last time - but I suspect Tornado Flyer is the better horse.
At 8/1, he’s an option.
However, the 2 rank outsiders make far more appeal, from a ‘value’ perspective…
Myth Buster was less than 5 lengths behind Easy Game last time - and running on strongly. How he can be 80/1, when Easy Game is 5/1, is beyond me !
That said, Rachel Blackmore appears to have chosen to ride Dommage Pour Toi ahead of Myth Buster.
He finished a length behind Tornado Flyer - but well ahead of Easy Game, when the 3 of them ran over hurdles at Punchestown last May.
At 40/1, he is a great ‘value’ bet…
Whether he should be an official bet however, is a different matter.
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to be staking him heavily - but equally, I wouldn’t put anyone off having a few speculative pounds/euros/dollars on him…!
3:30
The big race of the meeting - and it’s hard to look beyond Kemboy.
He was a revelation last season: Hacking up in the Savilles Chase and the Betway Bowl - before getting the better of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Al Boom Photo, at Punchestown.
You don’t get many horses winning 3 grade 1 chases in a season - and there can be little doubt he’s from the very top draw.
He should also have ideal conditions this afternoon: as he has a preference for a flat track and decent surface.
Provided his jumping holds up, I would expect him to win.
Obviously, the issue is the price - as he’s a 6/4 shot.
Superficially, that seems short, as Delta Work beat him by over 3 lengths, at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, Kemboy was making his seasonal debut that day and raced a bit too freely. I expect he will have come on significantly for the run and will reverse the form this afternoon.
Delta Work is obviously a danger though: as too is Presenting Percy - though I do feel he needs more of a stamina test than he is likely to get this afternoon.
Chris’s Dream is possibly the most interesting runner, on the back of his impressive win in the Troytown.
However, there’s a world of difference between taking a handicap off a mark of 146 - and winning a very strong grade 1 contest.
I’ll be a little surprised if he manages anything better than a place.
Of the others, then I could Le Bagu au Roi running a big race.
She won on this card last year - and whilst she has taken some time to recover her form this season, she ran very well on her latest outing at Doncaster.
Her rating of 147 is 30lb less than Kemboys - and that suggests she has no chance (even with her 7lb allowance)
I don’t believe that - and whilst she might not be able to beat him, I suspect she can give him a bit of a race.
Certainly she makes some EW appeal - though for the winner, it has be Kemboy…
4:00
The final big field handicap of the day - and just the 24 runners.
Compared to the other 2, solving it should be easy :)
Unfortunately, that’s not actually true - in fact, pulling together a short list is probably a bit trickier than it is for the other 2 races (because few of the runners can be safely dismissed).
That said, there are 3 who interest me most: Dallas de Pictons; At the Acorn and Portmore Lough.
The first 2 named are probably the most interesting runners in the race.
Both are unexposed novices, who really could be anything.
There is a chance that either could take the race apart: but the betting is wise to that possibility.
More than that, both have got to show a lot of improvement - and their jumping will need to hold up in a much tougher race than they have previously contested…
Portmore Lough is a different beast.
He finished third on his most recent outing: in the Troytown at Navan in November.
That’s a similar race to todays, in that its a competitive big field handicap - and he had no issue with it.
He wasn’t good enough to win, but he was only beaten by Chris Dream and Fitzhenry.
The former is fourth favourite for todays grade 1 Irish Gold Cup; whilst the latter was subsequently pipped in the Paddy Power chase.
As a result of that run, Portmore Lough meets Fitzhenry on 7lb better terms today: he also has a 7lb claimer in the saddle, meaning that Fitzhenry is effectively a stone worse off.
More than that, I think Portmore Lough will be well suited by todays shorter trip - and if his first time tongue tie has the desired effect, he will almost certainly run a big race.
Ofcourse, a race like this can rarely be narrowed down to 3 - and there are plenty more for whom cases can be made.
Robin des Foret is another who will almost certainly run well - though his resolution in a finish has to be a worry.
At big prices, Mr Diablo and Glamorgan Duke are both of some interest, and could be worth small plays.
For the official tip however, I’m just going to side with Portmore Lough…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
TipsLeop 1:55 Blue Sari 1pt win 6/1
Leop 4:00 Portmore Lough 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Leop 12:55 Jeremys Flame (P )
Leop 3:00 Dommage Pour Toi (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
No comments:
Post a Comment