BFHP - Feb 8th

The two JP horses have been very well backed (both now 7/1) - and at those prices, make limited appeal.

I’ll make Mack the Man the main play in the race, despite the ground worries.
He can be backed at 14/1 on the exchanges.

Thebannerkingrebel still holds appeal - but his price is quite tight.

The 3 outsiders are all worth a play - and are bigger prices on the exchanges.

7 units on Mack the Man at 10/1
5 units on Thebannerkingrebel at 9/1
2 units on Ecco at 20/1
2 units on Flegmatic at 40/1
2 units on Neff at 40/1
2 units on Ciel de Neige at 13/2 (saver)


Just to confirm, these are not official tips
TVB

As I mentioned earlier in the week, I’m going to look to tackle the occasional weekend 'Big Field Handicap Puzzle' (BFHP), in a slightly different way (using the same method that I’ve been using to cover mid-week races, in the forum).

The Betfair hurdle is such a race, tomorrow.
I won’t be tipping in it - but I am prepared to pull together a 'short-list', this evening.

After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.

Just to re-iterate, these won’t count as official tips.


Newbury 3:35

The drying ground is likely to be a big factor in tomorrows race.
There also tends to be a benefit, to racing up with pace in big field races (to avoid traffic issues).
The race has a history of being won by unexposed, progressive types - so that’s the sort I’ve majored on, in my short-list

Short-List

Mack the Man is extremely well handicapped: unexposed and progressive.
He’s also just snuck in to the weights.
On the flip side, apparently he has a preference for soft ground: and he tends to be held up in his races.

Neff has only run 4 times over hurdles, so is very hard to quantify. However, he has plenty of experience on the flat.
He represents the stable of Gary Moore - and he’s done well in the race, in recent years.

Flegmatic has got even less experience than Neff - but is trained by Dan Skelton, so will have been well prepared.
He has a couple of pieces of good form and looks potentially well handicapped.
The question is whether he can cope with the demands of the race...

Ceil de Neige has been sent over by Willie Mullins - and that makes him interesting.
He may not have won a hurdle race yet - but he ran third in the Fred Winter at last seasons Cheltenham festival, so should be able to cope with the big field.

Ecco is another unexposed novice - this time trained by Paul Nichols.
He finished sixth in last seasons Triumph hurdle - and has looked an improved horse this season.

Never Adapt is the second J P Mcmanus horse (Ciel de Neige is the other) - and she is ridden by Barry Geraghty (suggesting he is JPs main hope).
She is very headstrong - but won well at Kempton last time (suggesting she is becoming more amenable to restraint).
She was raised 10lb for that win - but that might not be enough.

The Bannerkingrebel is a tough novice (that sort tend to do well in the race).
He ran well at Haydock last time and is weighted to reverse form with the winner of that race (Stolen Silver).


I’ll email suggested bets for the race, after I issued tomorrows write-up (so likely to be after 11:30).