Daily write-up - Feb 15th

There will possibly be 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Haydock and Ascot in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland - but then again…!

As I said in my email earlier this morning, the weather conditions have made it almost impossible to get involved today.

I’m used to having to deal with going changes, due to late rain - but in addition to that, there is a question mark over whether the racing will actually take place today (and I can see decisions being made very late).

That in itself isn’t really the issue: the issue is which horses will run, if the meetings do go ahead.
I’m sure there will be plenty of non runners, as horses struggle to get to the courses: or as connections decide that conditions aren’t suitable.

In short, the racing may descend into a lottery… (or it may not !)

In the circumstances, I felt my only options were either to keep tips light - or not tip at all.
I eventually decided on the former - and have issued tips in just 2 of the days races.

However, I’ve previewed a few more, and there are a couple of Mentions, who a worth keeping an eye on.

There is also the BFHP race - and I will send out suggested bets for that before midday.

So if the racing does go ahead, then at least you have my view on things (as they stood this morning !)


Haydock

2:05

It’s hard to look beyond the 2 market leaders in this…
The Worlds End sets the race standard - and is the default winner.
Prior to this season, he had been a bit of an under-achiever.
Great things were expected of him as a novice chaser, last season - but he didn’t deliver.
He’s been sent back over hurdles this campaign - and has won 2 of his 3 races.
His latest victory was in a grade 1 at Ascot - and whilst that wasn’t a strong event and he was gifted the race by L’ami Serge, it was still a fair performance.
Certainly, if he repeats that level of form, I would expect him to be able to take care of todays opposition - with the possible exception of Emitom…
He was a very good novice hurdler last season - and the expectation was that he could be a contender in the staying hurdle division this season.
However, he suffered an injury and was only able to make his debut at Cheltenham, on new years day.
He looked as if he needed the run that day, and he ultimately finished last behind Summerville Boy.
I’m sure he will perform much better this afternoon - but he will need to !
The question, is whether connections will want him subjected to a really hard race, this afternoon.
I suspect he may be the best horse in the race - but in order to win, he’s likely to have to get into a battle with The Worlds End, in the Haydock mud.
If he does that, then that is likely to be the end of his Stayers hurdle chances…
That potentially hidden agenda, makes this an impossible race to play in - though I suspect the late betting moves will clarify things (as they so often do !).

2:40

This is another near impossible race to play, due to the presence of French challenge, Rockadenn.
It’s very rare to a French trained runner contesting a race such as this - and he’s impossible to assess.
Form figures of 1111 suggest he could be quite useful - but how his form compares to the UK runners, is anyones guess…
Sir Physo heads the betting - but I wouldn’t be interested in him at around 5/4.
He did well to win his most recent race - but prior to that, had been beaten in a handicap off a mark of 117.
He may well have improved between the 2 runs - but there is definitely a question mark over how good he is.
In fact, if I were to get involved with the race, I would be far more interested Gerolamo Cordano.
He was a slightly unlucky third at Cheltenham on his most recent outing, and that form looks solid (and sets a reasonable standard).
That said, in absolute terms, you would expect a race of this nature to be won by a better horse than him.
With the other 3 runners looking quite limited, that logic takes you back to Rockadeen - and back to guessing.
As a consequence, it has to be a watching race…

3:15

The final declarations for this race were released on Thursday and when I looked at it, I came to the conclusion that Yala Enki was just about the most likely race winner.
He won the corresponding contest 2 years ago - and whilst he is now 11lb higher in the handicap, there can be little doubt that heavy ground at Haydock, suit the horse well.
He’s now 10 - and whilst the shouldn’t be improving, a switch this season to Paul Nichols, may well have eeked a few extra pounds out of him.
He was a 6/1 shot on Thursday - and that seemed fine - however, he has been seriously backed since then and at 7/2 this morning, all of the margin has gone in his price.
I know I said I would tip more horses that I fancied - but this is a relatively open race and simply, you have to draw the line somewhere.
I’m prepared to have him as a saver (and hope his price drifts a little) - but for the main bet in the race, I’m switching to The Two Amigos.
He clashed with Yala Enki (and Elegant Escape), in the Welsh National, over the Christmas period.
There was little between the 3 horses that day - and whilst The Two Amigos came out worse; he did lead to the second last - and is a couple of pounds better off today.
The slightly shorter trip will also help him - and simply, it’s impossible to say which of the 3, will come out on top this afternoon.
Therefore, as The Two Amigos can be backed at twice the price of Yala Enki (and 3pts bigger than Elegant Escape), he has to be the bet.
His case will be helped by the fact that he has a relatively light weight - whilst racing prominently in these kind of races, also tends to be an advantage.
With One for Arthur wanting better ground, Geronimo is probably the most interesting of the others.


Ascot

1:50

This is a fascinating little race - but nearly impossible to call.
It’s unlikely that Alsa Mix will be good enough to win - but victory for any of the other 5 would come as no great surprise.
The market favours Sam Brown - which is understandable, as he was a good winner last time and has plenty of potential.
However, I wouldn’t back anything in this race at 9/4.
Pym is next in the market - and whilst I do have reservations about him, I can’t deny that he keeps on winning (and seemingly keeps on improving).
That said, I slightly prefer the chances of third fav, Copperhead, who receives weight from all of his main rivals.
The issue with him however, is there is absolutely no way of knowing how good he is.
He was impressive last time - but that was in a class 3 handicap off a mark of 134.
That’s very different to running in a grade 2 event…
If I were to get involved with the race, it would be with either Two for Gold or Danny Whizzbang.
It strikes me that both could be over-priced at around 7/1 - though I can’t be confident about that !
Of the pair, I prefer Danny Whizzbang.
He’s very unexposed - but managed to win a grade 2 event on his chasing/seasonal debut.
He disappointed a little next time - but that was in grade 1 company and he did suffer some mid-race interference.
He has a 5lb penalty to carry, which isn’t ideal - but he still strikes me as the value option in an open looking race.

2:25

It’s not hard to argue that Red Indian is a well handicapped horse - and in ideal conditions, I think he warrant supporting in this.
Just over 12 months ago, he finished fourth in the grade 1 novice chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting; behind Le Bague au Roi, Topofthegame and Santini.
All 3 of those are proven grade 1 performers - and whist Red India was beaten upwards of 10 lengths, a rating of 141 suggest he could be very well handicapped.
That feeling was confirmed on his seasonal debut at Haydock, when he was backed into 5/1 jt fav for a competitive race.
He didn’t win that day - but he travelled strongly into the straight and simply appeared to find the trip too far, on his first run of the season.
He drops back 2 furlongs in distance today - and with that run under his belt, should be cherry ripe.
There really is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race - and if he does, then he will be hard to beat.
That said, he faces at least a couple of tough rivals, in the shape of Domain de L’isle and Valtor.
The former won a decent race over this course last month and is on a steep upward curve; whilst the latter is previous course and distance winner off a mark just 2lb lower than the one he runs off today.
More than that, most of the other runners can be given a chance of sorts - although that does tend to be the case in these competitive weekend handicaps.
That said, non of them look as well handicapped as Red Indian - and hopefully that will be enough to see him home in front.

3:00

This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…

3:35

It’s always good to see a top class horse in action - and there can be little doubt that Cyrname is top class.
He’s the highest rated horse currently in training - and whilst that can be quibbled with - there is no denying that he has put up some scintillating performances over todays course and distance.
What he hasn’t done, is show that level of form elsewhere - but so far as this race is concerned, that is irrelevant !
Cyrname has his perfect conditions today - and having been given a break since a disappointing run in the King George, is going to take an awful lot of beating.
He only faces 3 rivals in this race - and only one of those can be given a realistic chance of beating him (or even giving him a race).
Riders onthe storm has been massively impressive in his 2 races this season - but is going to need to take another huge step forward if he is going to trouble Cyrname this afternoon.
I guess that’s possible - though if Cyrname does run to form, it’s unlikely…
As a consequence, he’s only likely to win, if Cyrname under-performs.
Ofcourse, that could happen - but it’s never the kind of thing I like betting on.
I’d much rather just watch the race - and hopefully get to see a high class horse at the top of his game.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Asc 2:25 Red Indian 1pt win 5/1
Hayd 3:15 The Two Amigos 0.75pt win 7/1
Hayd 3:15 Yala Enki 0.25pt win 7/2

Mentions

Asc 1:50 Danny Whizzbang (S )
Hayd 2:40 Gerolamo Cordano (O )


The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions