With fixtures for the forthcoming week, being lost at an
alarming rate (tomorrows meetings at Plumpton and Carlisle have already been
abandoned; along with the one planned for Leicester on Tuesday), I was a little
surprised that there are apparently no issues at Fontwell.
The going
stick reading is is 3.7 (which is just a couple of notches higher than I have
for my bath !) - but the going description is ‘soft - heavy in places’
I
suspect it will be heavy in quite a lot of places !
The meeting at Naas
had to survive an early inspection - but survive it did.
Again, the ground
will be very heavy…
The big race of the day takes place at Fontwell: here
are my thoughts on it - along with the 2 chases on the Naas card.
Fontwell
3:20
This is a
race in which I’ve done very well, historically.
I was therefore hoping I
might be able to get involved again today - but just 5 runners were declared -
and only 4 have a realistic chance.
That wouldn’t stop me from getting
involved - but it does make it harder…
Thomas Darby has been installed a
short priced favourite - and whilst I might have some issues with his price of
even money, it’s hard not to agree that he’s the most likely race
winner.
Having performed below expectations in a couple of early season
novice chases, he was returned to hurdles last time and was very impressive in
despatching Song for Someone at Ascot.
The two of them pulled well clear of
their rivals - and the runner up franked the form in no uncertain terms
yesterday.
Based on that run, Thomas Darby will take a lot of beating today -
and as a consequence, I’d be disinclined to take him on.
The only caveat
is that last season, it was stated that he wanted decent ground.
That seems
to have changed this season, to him wanting soft ground !
He’s certainly
going to get the latter, so if the ‘new’ preference is wrong, he could be in
trouble !
The ground won’t be an issue for either Quel Destin or Monsieur
Lecoq - and they are both credible rivals.
The only trouble is, they are a
few pounds inferior to Thomas Darby, so if he runs to form, he will beat
them.
The small field won't suit William Henry; whilst Chesterfield
shouldn’t be good enough.
As a consequence, this look a pretty
straightforward race to call:
Thomas Darby should beat Quel Destin and
Monsieur Lecoq, with William Henry and Chesterfield in rear.
The only trouble
is, the small field will increase the importance of tactics - whilst the very
heavy ground will increase the lottery element.
In the circumstances, I
couldn’t support Thomas Darby - I just couldn’t oppose him
either…
Naas
2:10
It’s interesting that the 2 chases on the card have been moved to be
the first 2 races (presumably because of ground issues).
Ornua was an
obvious one to take on in this (due to the ground) - but he has been withdrawn
this morning, leaving a field of just 5.
Cadmium is another who is
unlikely to appreciate the heavy going - so expect him to continue to drift in
price.
Hardline has the form to win - but he is inconsistent and may be
better suited by an extra half mile.
Whilst Any Second Now is a 3 miler - so
should find this too sharp (unless it turns into an absolute war).
As a
consequence, Articulum and Castlegrace Paddy look the 2 to focus
on:
Despite recent form figures of ‘FUF’, Articulum is the one I like
best.
He will have no issue with the ground and will appreciate dropping back
in trip (he ran over 5 furlongs further, last time).
He finished third in
last seasons Arkle, so has the form to be a player in a race of this nature; and
whilst he is the oldest member of the field, he is relatively unexposed over
fences.
He receives weight from most of his rivals - and that could prove
crucial in the heavy ground.
If his jumping holds up, he will take a bit of
beating.
Castlegrace Paddy is the ‘value’ call in the race (at
6/1).
He had a very good novice campaign - but has struggled recently in open
company.
That said, he has been mixing it with the best, so this is a step
down in class for him.
He’ll have no issue with the ground or the trip - but
will need to have come on from his seasonal debut at the beginning of this month
(when he was well beaten).
I would expect him to have done so - but the late
betting will probably confirm if that’s the case !
2:40
In
theory, this would be a suitable race for the ‘matrix’ betting (which I use for
the BFHPs and the midweek races) - though it would be a brave man who was
prepared to take on an Irish novice handicap chase !
Suffice to say, I would
expect a few of the runners to show much improved form - and for the betting to
be quite enlightening !!
As a consequence, it’s probably a race best
watched - though I still have a short-list of runners which I will be watching
most closely:
Top of the list, is An Fraoch Mor.
He has run really
well in a couple of decent novice chases this season - and his opening mark of
130, looks perfectly fair.
I suspect he still has improvement in him and he
looks to be the one to beat.
Chavi Artist is the next one of
interest.
He ran well last time, in a strong open handicap chase at the
Dublin Racing festival.
Prior to that he has won a handicap at Punchestown -
so whilst he is relatively exposed, he does seem to be
progressive.
Valdieu looks the best value bet in the race.
He won a
fair race on his handicap debut last time - and whilst he was raised 7lb for
that effort, that will be offset by the claim of his jockey, Eoin
Walsh.
Cooldine Bog is the final one on the short list.
I’d be really
interested in him - if the ground were better.
He was running well last
summer - and showed definite promise last time on his return from a
break.
However, all of his from is on decent ground - and I’ll be a little
surprised if he handles todays surface.
I'm sure a few of you will want
to know, so if I were to get involved with the race, then I would look to
spread my ‘20 units’ as follows:
8 units on An Fraoch Mor at 11/2
(52)
8 units on Valdieu at 14/1 (120)
3 units on Chavi Artist at 10/1
(33)
1 unit on Cooldine Bog at 20/1 (21)
Best of luck if you do
choose to get involved today !
TVB.
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