Daily write-up - Feb 22nd

There are just 2 NH meetings today: at Kempton and Fairyhouse

Newcastle failed its early morning inspection, joining Chepstow as another casualty of the rain…

It’s been 2 weeks since we’ve had any decent weather - and that’s made things very difficult from a betting/tipping perspective.

The problem is that you’ve no idea where you stand: whether meetings will be taking place and if they do take place, how the ground will ride and which horses will actually run.
Non of this is good news, when you are committing to a position on a race, relatively early…

In truth, the impact on this weekend hasn’t been as great as it could have been.
The start of Cheltenham is now just over 2 weeks away, and most of the better horses have already had their final prep runs.

In fairness, Kempton have put on a decent card, which has attracted some reasonable animals.
That said, most of the races can be quickly narrowed down to 2 or 3, which tends to result in limited betting opportunities.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up tipping in just the one race at Kempton.
However, I’ve also got a tip at Fairyhouse - and there’s the BFHP race as well - so a few things to keep you amused.

Here is my rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main Kempton races.


Kempton

12:40

This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…

1:15

It’s not easy to see beyond Master Tommytucker and Commanche Red in this - however with each priced up at 9/4, it’s also not easy to see a betting angle !
Of the pair, I prefer the claims of Master Tommytucker.
In fact, if he’d been available at 3/1, I would have taken a risk and tipped him.
That’s despite the fact that he’s fallen in 2 of his 3 chase start to date !
More positively, he did win the other one - and he may have won the 2 in which he  fell, if he’d managed to stay on his feet.
That has to be a worry - though there is little doubt that he’s got a serious engine when his jumping does hold up.
On his most recent outing, he was still in with a chance when falling in the grade 1 Kauto Star chase; whilst prior to that, he beat Who Dares Wins over todays course, despite conceding race fitness.
It’s unlikely that one will be able to turn the tables today, particularly as the extra 2 furlongs should better suit Master Tommytucker.
Commanche Red has a very different profile, as he is stepping up to grade 1 company, having won a handicap last time,.
That was over todays course and distance, and he was very impressive in beating a pair of subsequent winners.
He appears to be a big improver - but Master Tommytucker is likely to prove a very strong opponent.
Of the others, then Southfield Stone can be given a chance on his hurdles form of last season; whilst Erick Le Rouge has strong track form and was impressive when winning a fair handicap, on his most recent outing.
Either one could take advantage if the market leaders happen to disappoint.
Even the 2 outsiders are both moderately interesting, which means this can only be a watching race…

1:50

This is an impossible race to get involved with, as the 2 market leaders are both having their first runs over hurdles in the UK.
Solo, makes his debut for Paul Nichols, having been trained previously by Guillame Macaire in France.
He ran twice at Auteuil: Finishing runner up on his debut - before going one better on his most recent outing in November.
He may well be very good - but there is no way of accurately assessing that…
It’s possible to get a bit more of a handle on Fujimoto Flyer.
She’s trained in Ireland by Emmet Mullins: and after winning on her hurdling debut at Kilarney, then won a listed mares race at Auteuil.
Again, it’s nno easy to assess the worth of the form - though the fact it was a listed race, suggests it should have been a reasonable standard.
In truth, non of their opponents look particularly talented - which explains why the pair of them are so short in the betting (9/4 and 6/4 respectively).
Tremwedge and Fantastic Ms Fox are the most exposed runners in the field: but both have official handicap ratings of just 126 - which shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough to take a grade 2 contest.
The other 5 runners are less exposed - but non of them appears to have massive potential.
As a consequence, the race does look to be at the mercy of one of the market leaders…
I doubt I will get involved with it myself - but if I did, I would be most likely to try and find a way of siding with Earl of Harrow.
He showed some promise on his only run over hurdles - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to step up sufficiently to take a race of this nature, if the favourites do disappoint, then he looks to have as good a chance as anything, of capitalising…

2:25

The Kingwell hurdle has been saved from last weekends Wincanton card, which was lost to the rain.
Wincanton and Kempton are relatively similar tracks (both flat, right-handed), so the biggest difference today, compared to last weekend, will be the state of the ground.
There are only 6 runners in the race - and the betting looks to have them positioned about right.
Ch’tibello, Song for Someone and Elgin look the most likely - with the caveat that Elgin is returning after a long absence, so his fitness has to be taken on trust.
He has a preference for decent ground, so should benefit from the switch of venue - but he’s hard to support at 4/1, when you can only guess how ready he is…
Ignoring the prices, I make Song for Someone just about the most likely winner.
That said, a relatively quick 2 miles around Kempton, is likely to prove a bare minimum for him.
Ch’tibello will almost certainly run his race - and may be good enough to win. I’d expect him to go very close…
Of the others, then Diego de Charmil has a chance - if he can translate his chasing form back to hurdles.
Again however, a price of 5/1 doesn’t really encourage taking a risk.
It’s harder to make a case for the 2 outsiders - though I wouldn’t totally rule out either of them.
In short, it’s another race where he market seems to have everything in the right place (based on the known information), and with no particular angle for supporting any of the runners, a watch brief is again advised…

3:02

Buzz has been installed the market leader for this - and that’s hard to disagree with.
He was very decent on the flat (rated 98) and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He’ll need to step up on the form of those wins, if he is to complete the hatrick today - but the sharp Kempton track should suit him and he looks the one to beat.
Cases can be constructed for Highway one o Two, West Cork, Kid Commando and Faire Part Sivola - but plenty of guesswork is required, and I can’t see a particular angle for supporting any of them (one may exist - but I can’t see what it is !).
If I were to take on the favourite, it would either be with Benson - or Bathsheba Bay.
The case for the former, is the more obvious, as he was in the process of running a massive race on his hurdling debut at Sandown, when he unshipped his jockey at the second last.
That was in a listed race - and if the form could be taken literally, he would be the one to beat.
However, it was still a little way out when he capsized - and the ground that day was desperate.
I suspect that suited him - and may have shown him in a flattering light.
Certainly, his previous bumper form didn’t suggest he was capable of such a run - so whilst there is a slight temptation to take a risk on him, I think he is better as a Mention.
The case for Bathsheba Bay is even more tenuous - as he’s shown himself about a stone shy of the level required to win this race.
It therefore strikes me as very strange that Paul Nichols is even running him.
He’s not one to tilt at windmills, so he must think the horse capable of running a very big race.
Presumably the idea is to get his rating up - and thereby give him a chance of competing in one of the big end of season handicaps.
He could probably achieve that by going close - and not winning - but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on: both in the race - and in the betting before hand.

3:35

This is the big race of the day and it’s attracted a competitive field.
That said, I’m quite keen on the chances of the 2 horses who were in the the frame in the corresponding race, 12 months ago.
That race was won by Walt: with Double Shuffle a length behind, and Adrien du Pont 4 lengths further back in third.
Adrien du Pont is 2lb better off with Double Shuffle today - and whilst that shouldn't be sufficient to reverse the form, he had a poor passage through the race that day - and is also the younger horse, by a couple of years (so has greater scope for improvement).
More importantly however, both horses are running off marks significantly lower than they did in last years race: Double Shuffle, 4lb lower - and Adrien du Pont, 6lb lower.
This years contest appears no stronger than last years renewal, so it strikes me that they are very much the ones to beat - assuming they bounce back to form.
And superficially it looks as if that could be an issue for them both - as collectively, they have run 7 times since then, and not featured.
However, I think that is misleading - as neither horse has encountered ideal conditions in the past 12 months.
Double Shuffle has run 4 times since last years race - but they were in; the Gold Cup; over the Aintree fences; on his seasonal debut and on unsuitable heavy ground.
It’s easy enough to excuse all 4 efforts.
Adrien du Pont ran in the same races - excluding the Gold cup - and can be excused under-performing, for the same reasons…
Both horses will be far better suited by todays test of 3miles on decent ground, on a flat right handed track - and I fully expect them to show vastly improved form.
Of the others, then Whatmore, Dashing Park and Highway one o One are the 3 who interest me most.
They all have scope for improvement - though equally, have yet to prove themselves at this level.
Of the trio, then Highway one o One is perhaps the most interesting - and certainly looks over-priced at 18/1.
For the tips however,I’ll stick with Double Shuffle and Adrien du Pont - and hope that they can rewind the clock !


Fairyhouse

4:02

This is the main race on the Fairyhouse card - and whilst there are only 6 runners, it is still a tricky enough puzzle.
That said, I think it is worth giving Acapella Bourgeois a chance to atone for letting us down last time, in the Thystes chase.
I fancied him that day - but he made numerous jumping errors and in the circumstances, did well to finish sixth.
He’ll need to improve on that effort if he is to win today - but provided he jumps better, then I would expect him to do just that.
My hope is that he will benefit from the much smaller field - and possibly get an uncontested lead.
If that does happen, then I think he will take a lot of beating.
Certainly, his best ever performance was when he made all at Navan 3 years ago - and destroyed Road to Respect by 30 lengths.
If he can get anywhere near that level of form today, he won’t be beaten !
The other big positive for him, is the state of the ground.
It really can’t be too soft for him, so todays very heavy ground, should suit him perfectly.
In terms of his rivals, then Alpha des Obeaux looks the one to beat.
He is rated 6lb superior to Acapella - and whilst I’m not totally convinced about that, he could still be hard to beat.
That said, Alpha des Obeaux is almost certainly being trained with a Grand National in mind (either the English or Irish) - so may not be going flat out to win today.
That could also be the case with Bellshill and Pleasant Company: whilst Voix de Reve finished miles behind Acapella at Tramore and Sub Lieutenant is making his seasonal debut.
In short, there are reasons why all of Acapella rivals either won’t be at the top of their game, or shouldn’t be good enough to beat him.
I think this race is his to lose - provided Danny Mullins rides him aggressively and he gets his jumping right.
Fingers crossed !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips
Kemp 3:35 Adrien du Pont 0.5pt win 11/2
Kemp 3:35 Double Shuffle 0.5pt win 10/1
Fairy 4:02 Acapella Bourgeois 1pt win 3/1

Mentions

Kemp 1:15 Master Tommytucker (P )
Kemp 3:02 Benson (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions