It was another frustrating day, on which I again managed to
get the borderline calls wrong.
It really does feel like it happens too
often to be a coincidence - the only consolation being, that I’m working my way
up the Naps table as a consequence (I tend to make my best Mention, my Nap
!!)
In my defence, it is incredibly difficult to tip early in any of the
Irish races.
The prices are set so defensively, you would have to be
stunningly good to make a profit at early prices.
It’s caught me out a
few times this season - A Plus Tard and Ballyoisin are 2 that spring readily to
mind.
Sharjan can now be added to that list - and I guess there is an
argument that I should just tip them and ignore the price.
Generally, my
frustration is that the price on offer is much lower than it should be - and
generally, I‘m right !
I would have struggled to claim more than 4/1 on
Sharjan this morning - but his BSP was 8 !
That said, his SP was only
9/2….
It was almost exactly the same story with Ballyoisin.
I need to
think about the best way to handle them.
I know a lot of you will have backed
it because of my comments in the write-up - and because I napped it.
But
officially speaking it doesn’t count for the service numbers - and plenty of you
won’t have backed it !
Anyway, enough about a Mention !!
So far as
the actual tips were concerned - I issued 2 - and they both lost !
I
could tell after 2 fences that Lust for Glory wasn’t going to win.
She went
up in the air at her fences, whereas Maire Banrigh and Baddersely Knight went
forward.
My feeling is that she needs a step up in trip - plus a bit of
jumping practise !
Bob Mahler jumped well enough - he just wasn’t too
keen on the running bit !
Unfortunately for him, he had Paddy Brennan in the
saddle - and he’s not a man to take ‘no’ for an answer.
Paddy gave it his
best shot - and Bob Mahler begrudgingly went along.
As the challenges came
and went, it did briefly look as if he might secure an unlikely
victory.
However the final challenge of Boldmere, was just too much to
resist...
With Minella Indo withdrawn on account of the quickening ground
(I suspect connections of Anabale Fly wish they had done similar yesterday !),
there was only one more Mention on the day: Le Bague as Roi.
She didn’t win -
but she ran a mighty race - and was involved in one of the finishes of the
season.
As at Huntingdon, she jumped from fence to fence - and even when
Happy Diva challenged at the last, she refused to lie down.
However Lady
Buttons appeared over the top of them both, and got up by a head in a driving
finish.
It really was a tremendous race - and a great advert for the mares
series….
TVB.
Sunday 29 December 2019
Daily write-up - Dec 29th
There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Doncaster and
Kelso in the UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.
It’s the final day of the festivals at the 2 Irish courses - and that signals the end of the festive racing period.
It’s been 4 very intense days - and I have to admit that I’m looking forward to seeing a bit of daylight !
I was hopeful that today might provide some decent opportunities - but they aren’t quite as many as I expected !
Aside from a good quality race at Limerick, there is little of interest, either there - or at Kelso.
Leopardstown host a couple of grade 1 events - but they are contested by small fields and have short priced favourites.
The best racing from a betting perspective, takes place at Doncaster - and I’d got fancies in a few of the races - though tipping them was a different matter !
I really couldn’t believe how weak the markets were - even at 10:30…
I eventually decided to take a risk and issue a couple of tips regardless.
I think that both races look sufficiently competitive for the the prices not to crash completely - though I guess time will tell on that score !
Anyway, here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other big races at both Doncaster and Leopardstown.
Doncaster
12:25
I want to take a chance on Lust for Glory in this.
She is making her fencing debut under rules - but won her only PTP and has apparently schooled well over the bigger obstacles, at home.
Her most recent run was in a very strong mares race at Cheltenham.
She was sent off at just 5/1 for that race - but pulled too hard and weakened late on.
The soft ground probably didn’t suit her that day either - so on a quicker surface, and over half a mile less, I would be far more optimistic about her getting home.
It probably also helps her chances that Nico de Boinville takes over in the saddle from Sam Waley-Cohen (I’ve nothing against the latter - but he’s unlikely to have the strength of De Boinville).
I think it will also help her chances that Maire Banrigh is in the race.
She is a confirmed front runner and so is likely to set a strong pace which should help Lust for Glory.
In fairness, this is quite an open race.
There may only be 5 runners, but all 5 look to have a chance.
That said, I think Lust for Glory could be a fair bit better than her current rating - so in conditions which should suit her well, I think she is worth supporting.
1:35
As mares race go, they don’t come much better than this !
There are just 7 runners - and only 4 (5 at a push), have a chance of winning - but it’s still a cracking contest.
Of the ‘big 4’ then Casablanca Mix is the one I like least.
She is actually the highest rated in the field - but she acquired that rating during the summer, and I’m always suspicious when that happens (the races aren't as strong).
She is held on form by Happy Diva, from a race at Huntingdon last season - and I see little reason why it should be reversed this afternoon.
Happy Diva is the next one I would eliminate - though not with huge conviction !
She did us a massive favour when winning the Paddy Power chase last time - but I just feel that she needs a bit more of a stamina test than she is likely to get this afternoon, on the relatively quick ground (probably !).
Lady Buttons won the corresponding race last season - and she has every chance of following up this afternoon.
She is a truly likeable mare - talented and consistent - and it will take a good one to beat her.
The problem for her, is that La Bague au Roi is a good one - a very good one !
Her form from last season stands up to the closest scrutiny - and whilst she disappointed on her seasonal debut at Wetherby, she bounced back last time at Huntingdon.
I expect Dickie to try and make all on her - and I just think that she may prove a bit too good for her rivals to pass.
This is likely to be a really tight race - so any jumping errors or misjudgement of pace, could prove crucial.
As a consequence, I can’t consider supporting her at 5/2 (my minimum target price would be 7/2).
Dalial du Seuil os the other one to briefly consider.
She’s very hard to quantify - but will need to be exceptional if she is to get win.
Ultimately, its just not a race I feel I can play in.
I like La Bague au Roi best - but would want a bigger price to encourage me to risk getting involved.
2:45
Bob Mahler caught my eye last time - and I think he is worth supporting in this.
Following a couple of poor runs: one at the back of last season - and first time out this season, he bounced back to form last time, in a better class race than todays, at Haydock.
He was no match for the winner, Crievehill that day - but he showed up well to the home turn and it very much looked as if he was returning to form.
And if he’s back in the form he showed when winning at Newbury and Cheltenham last spring, then I think he’s going to be hard to beat today.
In fact, on the back of his Cheltenham win, connections were talking about a tilt at the Ladbroke trophy (formerly the Hennessey) - and if he could have been competitive in that, then a race of todays nature should be well within his compass.
Certainly he’s always been considered a decent horse - so a rating of 135 could easily under-estimate him.
He also only 7 years old - so there is still time for him to improve.
In terms of his opponents today, then nothing really stands out.
Spiders Bite looks the most dangerous - with a run under his belt and Dickie on board; whilst I could also give half chance to 2 or 3 others.
That said, I like Bob Mahler best - and at odds of 11/2, think he is worth siding with.
Leopardstown
1:55
The betting suggests that this should rest between Battleoverodyen and Minella Indo - and that’s probably how it will work out.
Both were top class novice hurdlers last season: the former being sent off a short priced favourite for the Ballymore properties hurdle at the Cheltenham festival (in which disappointed); whilst the latter won the Albert Bartlett hurdle (at a massive price !).
They have switched their attention to fences this season, and Battleofdoyen is unbeaten in 2 runs; whilst Minella Indo finished a creditable second to Laurina, over an unsuitably short trip.
It’s very hard to choose between the pair this afternoon, and the difference is likely to come from jumping, race pace - or ability to act on the ground (3 variables which we have limited knowledge of, in advance of the race).
If forced off the fence, I would side with Minella Indo - but I won’t be backing him, at odds of 2/1.
In truth, you couldn’t be completely confident that it will just be a 2 horse race.
Both Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, have form close enough to the principals, to make them dangerous; whilst the 2 outsiders have form close enough to Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, to almost make any result a possibility !
Time to move on…
2:30
I was hoping to take a risk on Sharjah in this - but I was hoping for a big price !
He’s the lesser fancied stablemate of favourite, Klassical Dreamer - and he finished a fair way behind that one when both disappointed on their seasonal debuts at Punchestown, last month.
Prior to that race, Klassical Dreamer was the favourite for the Champion hurdle - but that set back saw him drift out a few points.
The confidence now seems back in him (partly due to a lack of credible opponents in the Champion) - and he is a short priced favourite for this.
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did win today - and reclaimed favourite for the Champion - but equally, it wouldn't surprise me if he were beaten.
My hope was that the market would significantly side with him - and I guess that may still happen - but it’s not done yet !
Sharjah at 6/1 or better, would be a tip - Sharjah at 5/1, is right on the cusp…
That’s partly because this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Coeur Sublime was massively impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Down Royal and has been targeted a this race.
I expected him to be priced up shorter than the currnet 4/1.
I also couldn’t totally dismiss Petit Mouchoir. He finished ahead of both Klassical Dream and Sharjah, last time - though did have a fitness advantage.
I don’t really fancy Darasso , as I think he needs softer ground - but equally, I acknowledge that he can’t be completely dismissed.
Ultimately, I think this is just too hard a race to get involved with early.
Sharjah is the one I’m most inclined to side with - but I’m not sufficiently keen to take the 9/2 currently on offer…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Donc 12:25 Lust for Glory 1pt win 5/1
Donc 2:45 Bob Mahler 1pt win 11/2
Mentions
Donc 1:35 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 1:55 Minella Indo (O )
Leop 2:30 Sharjah (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
It’s the final day of the festivals at the 2 Irish courses - and that signals the end of the festive racing period.
It’s been 4 very intense days - and I have to admit that I’m looking forward to seeing a bit of daylight !
I was hopeful that today might provide some decent opportunities - but they aren’t quite as many as I expected !
Aside from a good quality race at Limerick, there is little of interest, either there - or at Kelso.
Leopardstown host a couple of grade 1 events - but they are contested by small fields and have short priced favourites.
The best racing from a betting perspective, takes place at Doncaster - and I’d got fancies in a few of the races - though tipping them was a different matter !
I really couldn’t believe how weak the markets were - even at 10:30…
I eventually decided to take a risk and issue a couple of tips regardless.
I think that both races look sufficiently competitive for the the prices not to crash completely - though I guess time will tell on that score !
Anyway, here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other big races at both Doncaster and Leopardstown.
Doncaster
12:25
I want to take a chance on Lust for Glory in this.
She is making her fencing debut under rules - but won her only PTP and has apparently schooled well over the bigger obstacles, at home.
Her most recent run was in a very strong mares race at Cheltenham.
She was sent off at just 5/1 for that race - but pulled too hard and weakened late on.
The soft ground probably didn’t suit her that day either - so on a quicker surface, and over half a mile less, I would be far more optimistic about her getting home.
It probably also helps her chances that Nico de Boinville takes over in the saddle from Sam Waley-Cohen (I’ve nothing against the latter - but he’s unlikely to have the strength of De Boinville).
I think it will also help her chances that Maire Banrigh is in the race.
She is a confirmed front runner and so is likely to set a strong pace which should help Lust for Glory.
In fairness, this is quite an open race.
There may only be 5 runners, but all 5 look to have a chance.
That said, I think Lust for Glory could be a fair bit better than her current rating - so in conditions which should suit her well, I think she is worth supporting.
1:35
As mares race go, they don’t come much better than this !
There are just 7 runners - and only 4 (5 at a push), have a chance of winning - but it’s still a cracking contest.
Of the ‘big 4’ then Casablanca Mix is the one I like least.
She is actually the highest rated in the field - but she acquired that rating during the summer, and I’m always suspicious when that happens (the races aren't as strong).
She is held on form by Happy Diva, from a race at Huntingdon last season - and I see little reason why it should be reversed this afternoon.
Happy Diva is the next one I would eliminate - though not with huge conviction !
She did us a massive favour when winning the Paddy Power chase last time - but I just feel that she needs a bit more of a stamina test than she is likely to get this afternoon, on the relatively quick ground (probably !).
Lady Buttons won the corresponding race last season - and she has every chance of following up this afternoon.
She is a truly likeable mare - talented and consistent - and it will take a good one to beat her.
The problem for her, is that La Bague au Roi is a good one - a very good one !
Her form from last season stands up to the closest scrutiny - and whilst she disappointed on her seasonal debut at Wetherby, she bounced back last time at Huntingdon.
I expect Dickie to try and make all on her - and I just think that she may prove a bit too good for her rivals to pass.
This is likely to be a really tight race - so any jumping errors or misjudgement of pace, could prove crucial.
As a consequence, I can’t consider supporting her at 5/2 (my minimum target price would be 7/2).
Dalial du Seuil os the other one to briefly consider.
She’s very hard to quantify - but will need to be exceptional if she is to get win.
Ultimately, its just not a race I feel I can play in.
I like La Bague au Roi best - but would want a bigger price to encourage me to risk getting involved.
2:45
Bob Mahler caught my eye last time - and I think he is worth supporting in this.
Following a couple of poor runs: one at the back of last season - and first time out this season, he bounced back to form last time, in a better class race than todays, at Haydock.
He was no match for the winner, Crievehill that day - but he showed up well to the home turn and it very much looked as if he was returning to form.
And if he’s back in the form he showed when winning at Newbury and Cheltenham last spring, then I think he’s going to be hard to beat today.
In fact, on the back of his Cheltenham win, connections were talking about a tilt at the Ladbroke trophy (formerly the Hennessey) - and if he could have been competitive in that, then a race of todays nature should be well within his compass.
Certainly he’s always been considered a decent horse - so a rating of 135 could easily under-estimate him.
He also only 7 years old - so there is still time for him to improve.
In terms of his opponents today, then nothing really stands out.
Spiders Bite looks the most dangerous - with a run under his belt and Dickie on board; whilst I could also give half chance to 2 or 3 others.
That said, I like Bob Mahler best - and at odds of 11/2, think he is worth siding with.
Leopardstown
1:55
The betting suggests that this should rest between Battleoverodyen and Minella Indo - and that’s probably how it will work out.
Both were top class novice hurdlers last season: the former being sent off a short priced favourite for the Ballymore properties hurdle at the Cheltenham festival (in which disappointed); whilst the latter won the Albert Bartlett hurdle (at a massive price !).
They have switched their attention to fences this season, and Battleofdoyen is unbeaten in 2 runs; whilst Minella Indo finished a creditable second to Laurina, over an unsuitably short trip.
It’s very hard to choose between the pair this afternoon, and the difference is likely to come from jumping, race pace - or ability to act on the ground (3 variables which we have limited knowledge of, in advance of the race).
If forced off the fence, I would side with Minella Indo - but I won’t be backing him, at odds of 2/1.
In truth, you couldn’t be completely confident that it will just be a 2 horse race.
Both Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, have form close enough to the principals, to make them dangerous; whilst the 2 outsiders have form close enough to Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, to almost make any result a possibility !
Time to move on…
2:30
I was hoping to take a risk on Sharjah in this - but I was hoping for a big price !
He’s the lesser fancied stablemate of favourite, Klassical Dreamer - and he finished a fair way behind that one when both disappointed on their seasonal debuts at Punchestown, last month.
Prior to that race, Klassical Dreamer was the favourite for the Champion hurdle - but that set back saw him drift out a few points.
The confidence now seems back in him (partly due to a lack of credible opponents in the Champion) - and he is a short priced favourite for this.
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did win today - and reclaimed favourite for the Champion - but equally, it wouldn't surprise me if he were beaten.
My hope was that the market would significantly side with him - and I guess that may still happen - but it’s not done yet !
Sharjah at 6/1 or better, would be a tip - Sharjah at 5/1, is right on the cusp…
That’s partly because this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Coeur Sublime was massively impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Down Royal and has been targeted a this race.
I expected him to be priced up shorter than the currnet 4/1.
I also couldn’t totally dismiss Petit Mouchoir. He finished ahead of both Klassical Dream and Sharjah, last time - though did have a fitness advantage.
I don’t really fancy Darasso , as I think he needs softer ground - but equally, I acknowledge that he can’t be completely dismissed.
Ultimately, I think this is just too hard a race to get involved with early.
Sharjah is the one I’m most inclined to side with - but I’m not sufficiently keen to take the 9/2 currently on offer…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Donc 12:25 Lust for Glory 1pt win 5/1
Donc 2:45 Bob Mahler 1pt win 11/2
Mentions
Donc 1:35 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 1:55 Minella Indo (O )
Leop 2:30 Sharjah (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
I don’t want it to sound like sour grapes - but the state of
the ground is driving me mad at the moment !
Having gone through weeks where it has been softer than I expected, because of late rain: we’ve now had 2 days when conditions have been quicker than I expected, due to no rain !
Kempton was riding quicker than I expected yesterday: and it was the same today, at both Newbury and Leopardstown.
This game is hard enough without having to hit a moving target !
2 of todays tips were selected because I expected them to be running in near bottom-less conditions - but that just wasn’t the case….
Anyway…!!
Suffice to say it ended up a blank day - and the state of the ground didn’t help !
The first tip to run was Chozen - and I would have had no issue with quick ground for him.
He also got an uncontested lead - so the fact he ended up finishing last, has to be considered disappointing !
I guess he may have needed the run - but more likely, he simply wasn’t good enough.
Indy Five was the next tip to run - and ultimately he wasn’t good enough either - but my, how he tried !
Again, the ground wouldn’t have been an issue for him - but having to sit in behind Strong Pursuit in the early stages, wouldn’t have helped.
I was hoping that he might get an uncontested lead, allowing Gavin Sheehan to set his own fractions - but that’s not how it panned out.
All the same, he managed to see off Strong Pursuit - and turning in, looked to have every chance.
However the favourite, Copperhead was cruising in behind.
I still hope that Indy Fives sound jumping might put the favourite under pressure - but that’s not how it worked out and ultimately it was Indy Five who payed the price with a crashing fall at the last, when trying to match the favourite.
He really didn’t deserve that.
He might not have won - but he was certainly the second best horse in the race.
Kateson was the final tip at Newbury - and I tipped him mainly because I expected soft ground.
I felt the writing was on the wall before the race started - and sure enough, he never really looked comfortable, at the back of the field.
He plugged on to take a distant fifth in the closing stages - and I guess his mark will be adjusted down as a consequence.
We’ll just have to hope we can get him on another - more suitable - day…
It was a similar story with Anabale Fly at Leopardstown.
I watched the racing there yesterday, and the ground looked borderline heavy.
However, a drying wind did its job today - and the official going description was change to ‘Yielding - with good places’.
You couldn’t make it up !
Suffice to say, that was no good for Anabale Fly, who simply doesn’t have the pace to stay with top class chasers over 3 miles.
Again, we’ll have to hope for another day with him.
Redhotfillypeppers was the only other tip on the day - and she ran a weird race.
Turning for home, she looked to be going very easily - and almost touched even money in-running.
However, within a few strides she was going nowhere - and ended up well beaten.
Maybe she has a breathing issue - I really don’t know.
Suffice to say won’t be as keen to give her another chance…
As for the Mentions:
Then Sevarano was another one who seemed to get caught out by the relatively quick ground at Newbury. He briefly threatened to get involved - but then decided against it !
I also thought that Thyme Hill struggled a bit in conditions - and it was simply his class that got him home in front.
Finally, Apples Jade turned back the clock at Leopardstown and was a convincing winner in her first time blinkers.
She was a weak 3/1 shot when I issued the write-up - but was sent off a very well backed 6/4 jt fav.
It’s funny how often that kind of thing happens…
TVB.
Having gone through weeks where it has been softer than I expected, because of late rain: we’ve now had 2 days when conditions have been quicker than I expected, due to no rain !
Kempton was riding quicker than I expected yesterday: and it was the same today, at both Newbury and Leopardstown.
This game is hard enough without having to hit a moving target !
2 of todays tips were selected because I expected them to be running in near bottom-less conditions - but that just wasn’t the case….
Anyway…!!
Suffice to say it ended up a blank day - and the state of the ground didn’t help !
The first tip to run was Chozen - and I would have had no issue with quick ground for him.
He also got an uncontested lead - so the fact he ended up finishing last, has to be considered disappointing !
I guess he may have needed the run - but more likely, he simply wasn’t good enough.
Indy Five was the next tip to run - and ultimately he wasn’t good enough either - but my, how he tried !
Again, the ground wouldn’t have been an issue for him - but having to sit in behind Strong Pursuit in the early stages, wouldn’t have helped.
I was hoping that he might get an uncontested lead, allowing Gavin Sheehan to set his own fractions - but that’s not how it panned out.
All the same, he managed to see off Strong Pursuit - and turning in, looked to have every chance.
However the favourite, Copperhead was cruising in behind.
I still hope that Indy Fives sound jumping might put the favourite under pressure - but that’s not how it worked out and ultimately it was Indy Five who payed the price with a crashing fall at the last, when trying to match the favourite.
He really didn’t deserve that.
He might not have won - but he was certainly the second best horse in the race.
Kateson was the final tip at Newbury - and I tipped him mainly because I expected soft ground.
I felt the writing was on the wall before the race started - and sure enough, he never really looked comfortable, at the back of the field.
He plugged on to take a distant fifth in the closing stages - and I guess his mark will be adjusted down as a consequence.
We’ll just have to hope we can get him on another - more suitable - day…
It was a similar story with Anabale Fly at Leopardstown.
I watched the racing there yesterday, and the ground looked borderline heavy.
However, a drying wind did its job today - and the official going description was change to ‘Yielding - with good places’.
You couldn’t make it up !
Suffice to say, that was no good for Anabale Fly, who simply doesn’t have the pace to stay with top class chasers over 3 miles.
Again, we’ll have to hope for another day with him.
Redhotfillypeppers was the only other tip on the day - and she ran a weird race.
Turning for home, she looked to be going very easily - and almost touched even money in-running.
However, within a few strides she was going nowhere - and ended up well beaten.
Maybe she has a breathing issue - I really don’t know.
Suffice to say won’t be as keen to give her another chance…
As for the Mentions:
Then Sevarano was another one who seemed to get caught out by the relatively quick ground at Newbury. He briefly threatened to get involved - but then decided against it !
I also thought that Thyme Hill struggled a bit in conditions - and it was simply his class that got him home in front.
Finally, Apples Jade turned back the clock at Leopardstown and was a convincing winner in her first time blinkers.
She was a weak 3/1 shot when I issued the write-up - but was sent off a very well backed 6/4 jt fav.
It’s funny how often that kind of thing happens…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 28th
There are 5 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Leicester and
Catterick in the UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.
The number of meetings may be the same as yesterday - but I can sense the pace beginning to slacken a little (thank goodness !)
Newbury host the only meeting of real note in the UK: and whilst there is a grade 1 contest - the Challow hurdle - top level races don’t come much more low key !
Over in Ireland, it’s day 3 of the Christmas festivals at both Leopardstown and Limerick.
In fairness, the Leopardstown card is arguably the strongest of the week - with the feature Savills chase a real treat.
Similarly, Limerick put on decent quality card, with a strong feature handicap.
Needless to say, it wasn’t too much of a job to find some potential tips for the day - and I managed to convert 5 of them in actual tips.
Let’s hope I’ve hit on the ‘right’ ones today !
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the days other big races…
Newbury
1:15
I quite like the look of Chozen in this.
He won on his seasonal - and chasing debut - at Southwell, at the start of last season.
He probably would have won next time as well - but fell when going strongly at Newcastle.
He didn’t run again for nearly 6 months - but then made a successful return at Ffos Las, when he battled on gamely for a narrow win.
Those 2 victories show that he is a horse who’s at his best when fresh.
Given his running style, that’s not a great surprise, as he is a very keen racer.
The Ffos Las win also shows that he can handle cut in the ground: if you can cope with Ffos Las soft, you can cope with soft, just about anywhere !
The doubts concern his level of ability - as this is a better race than he usually contests.
That said, he is just 7 - and has only raced 11 times under rules - so it’s quite likely that he’s not yet reached his peak.
Assuming he is allowed to stride on (which is what I expect), then he could get an uncontested lead.
If that happens - and assuming his jumping holds up - then I think he could be hard to peg back.
1:50
I was half tempted by Soul Emotion in this.
Just over a year ago, he ran in the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle at Ascot,
He was quite well fancied for that race, but disappointed - and worse, collapsed after crossing the line.
Thankfully he recovered - and there were no signs of lasting damage when he made his return at Newbury, last month.
He ran a fair race that day - travelling nicely to the home straight, when a lack of peak fitness seemed to catch him out.
The handicapper has dropped him 3lb for that run - but he is still on a mark of 147, which is high.
He may be up to defying it - but this is a tough race as he’s in against some potential improvers…
One for Rosie and Severano are the 2 obvious ones - with the last named looking particularly dangerous.
He’s still a novice - but he’s an experienced one - and a talented one.
I suspect his mark of 134, under-estimates him and he looks the most likely race winner, to me.
Now look at Me and Dorking Boy are other potential dangers, in a race which is likely to throw up more than its fair share of future winners.
2:25
I think it is worth taking a risk on Indy Five in this.
With recent form figures of F0PP, the case form him doesn’t stand out - but if you delve a little deeper, it’s not hard to make…
Prior that uninspiring run, his form figures read 1F12 - and more than that, they had some real substance to them.
The second place, was behind subsequent Scottish National winner, Takingrisks.
Indy Five ran him to 2 lengths, with the winner running from a mark 20lb lower than he is currently rated.
Indy Five on the other hand, was running from a mark 14lb higher than the one he races off today.
If the 2 of them met now, Takingrisks would be 34lb worse off for a 2 length victory !
Ofcourse, weights and distances don’t tell all - the other important factor is the form of the horse.
The suggestion is that Indy Five is right out of form - but I’m not convinced that is the case.
Last time, he travelled with real purpose at Wincanton - despite an SP of 50/1 - only weakening out of things, after the home turn.
If that run was needed (which may well have been the case), then I can see him going very close today.
He won over todays course, 2 seasons ago - and on soft ground. That was also off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
In short, if he’s back to form, he could easily win this - and that’s not often something you can say about a 20/1 shot !
3:00
£25K for winning a grade 1 race seems pretty poor - but that’s the first prize on offer for this race.
In fairness, it’s still attracted a decent field - I guess the prestige helps with that.
Thyme Hill heads the market - and he strikes me as by far the most likely winner.
He finished third in a red hot edition of the Champion bumper, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and has made a seamless switch to hurdles.
He won the grade 2 Persian War hurdle on his seasonal debut: and followed that up by winning another grade 2 event at the Cheltenham November meeting.
On each occasion, he was a comfortable victor - and it’s hard to know how good he is.
My guess is that he’s pretty good - and whilst he faces some useful opposition today, I expect them to be dispatched in similar fashion.
The market makes The Cashel Man his chief rival - and whilst the formbook agrees, he hasn’t got the same potential for improvement as the other 3 runners.
Ofcourse, they may simply not be good enough - but I’d still rather take a risk on one of them, if I was going to oppose the favourite.
Eclair Surf is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - though the market is likely to gives clues as to whether any of them will be good enough.
Without that knowledge, I’d have to side with the favourite.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Kateson in this.
I tipped him last season, when he was beaten at Aintree - but I don’t think he handled the quick ground that day.
He really wants cut - and granted those conditions, it strikes me that he will prove himself much better than his current rating of 138.
Certainly, if you look at his hurdle form of last season, you don’t see a 138 rated horse.
He ran a close third in the Challow hurlde on this card 12 months ago, and was surrounded by horses who are all now rated in the 150s.
That’s more how I view him - but a series of runs on unsuitable ground have resulted in him being rated significantly lower.
In fairness, he did get soft ground on his most recent run - when making his chasing debut at Exeter.
He was beaten that day - but I suspect that was because his jockey committed him too early.
He looked by far the best horse in the race - but was worried out of things close home, by a real battler.
I would hope that connections will have learnt from that and he will be delivered later this afternoon.
In truth, he does face some potentially decent rivals today, so he will need to be near the top of his game.
Morning Vicar is a definite danger on his chasing debut.
He too could be very well handicapped - and he has been very well backed !
Down the Highway is the other one that particularly interests me.
I tipped him last time when he disappointed a Chepstow - though it later transpired that he hurt himself stepping on his shoe.
If you ignore that run, he is over-priced at 12/1.
Leopardstown
2:00
It feels a little strange for Apples Jade not to be a short priced fav for a race of this nature…
For so long, she has dominated these kind of races - certainly in the first half of the season - but her star appears to be on the wane…
It all started to go wrong in last seasons Champion hurdle.
She was sent off a short priced fav for that race - but ran really disappointingly.
She bounced back at Aintree - where although she was beaten, she showed more of her old zest. However that was the last time we saw her sparkle…
Another disappointing run at Punchestown has been followed by 2 below par efforts this season.
Simply, she doesn’t look the horse she once was.
Connections reach for cheek pieces today - but it looks to be more in hope, than expectation…
Assuming she continues in the doldrums, then this race looks between the Willie Mullins duo: Penhill and Barcardys.
Paul Townend has plumped for the latter - and that probably explains why he is favourite.
Penhill is the slightly better horse according to official ratings - and is also the more likely to be suited by the 3 mile trip.
I would find it hard to choose between the pair - so at odds of 7/2, would have to go with Penhill.
In truth though, this is probably a watching race…
3:10
It strikes me that Anibale Fly is seriously over-priced in this race.
To some extent, I can understand why.
He’s 9 years old - and up against some younger, improving horses, who have already shown top class form.
He also finished last on his seasonal debut (miles behind Presenting Percy) - and prior to that, had run in a handicap (admittedly it was the Grand National - but all the same !).
However, it is also possible to view him far more positively…
He has been placed in the last 2 runnings of the Cheltenham Gold cup - and on those pieces of form he holds both Presenting Percy and Road to Respect (the second and third favs in todays race).
He also hacked up in the Paddy Power chase, 2 years ago - showing that todays course and distance are perfect for him.
However, the real key to Anibale Fly, is soft ground.
Given soft ground, he is more than capable of mixing it with the best of them, over 3 miles.
And soft ground is precisely what he will get this afternoon.
In fact, watching the racing at Leopardstown yesterday, I was surprised at just how soft it appeared to be riding.
If this turns into a war of attrition, then it will suit Anibale fly perfectly - and with Monalee and Kemboy in the race, that has to be a possibility.
If he returns in peak form, then Kemboy is clearly the one to beat - but I wouldn’t want to take 7/4 on a seasonal debutante in a race of this nature.
Presenting Percy is the other one I fear - though he still has to prove he is back to his best.
I reckon a peak form Anibale Fly can deal with the rest - so lets just hope the 2 big guns aren’t firing on all cylinders !
Limerick
2:50
I wouldn’t ordinarily tip at one of the minor meetings - but this is a big race, so hopefully it will work OK.
I was slightly fearful of Redhotfillypeppers,when I tipped Chris’s Dream in the Troytown, back in November.
Consequently, I kept quite a close eye on her throughout the race - and she travelled really well.
However, she was ultimately found out, either by the trip - or by a lack of fitness - and she ended up a well beaten fifth.
In fairness, that as still a very good run.
The Troytown is a top handicap - and Fitzhenry and Winter Escape, 2 of the horse who ran well in that race, franked the form by also running well in yesterdays Paddy Power chase.
The Paddy Power winner, Roaring Bull, was well behind that day - but I suspect he showed much improved form yesterday !
I don’t think Redhotfillypeppers will have to improve very much at all, to take this.
Her form from last season, suggests that she is competitively handicapped on a mark of 130 - though she is still young enough to be open to improvement.
I also like the fact that she is Willie Mullins sole runner in the race.
I’m sure his focus is currently on Leopardstown - but he is still the man to beat in races like this.
Of the others, the Shady Operator is definitely worth a mention.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, before disappointing last time, in the Troytown.
He sports first time blinkers today - and if they liven him up, he could be capable of outrunning his odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 1:15 Chozen 0.5pt win 16/1
Newb 2:25 Indy Five 0.5pt win 20/1
Newb 3:35 Kateson 1pt win 11/2
Leop 3:10 Anibale Fly 0.5pt win 25/1
Lim 2:50 Redhotfillypeppers 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Newb 1:50 Servano (O )
Newb 3:00 Thyme Hill (P )
Leop 2:00 Penhill (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
The number of meetings may be the same as yesterday - but I can sense the pace beginning to slacken a little (thank goodness !)
Newbury host the only meeting of real note in the UK: and whilst there is a grade 1 contest - the Challow hurdle - top level races don’t come much more low key !
Over in Ireland, it’s day 3 of the Christmas festivals at both Leopardstown and Limerick.
In fairness, the Leopardstown card is arguably the strongest of the week - with the feature Savills chase a real treat.
Similarly, Limerick put on decent quality card, with a strong feature handicap.
Needless to say, it wasn’t too much of a job to find some potential tips for the day - and I managed to convert 5 of them in actual tips.
Let’s hope I’ve hit on the ‘right’ ones today !
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the days other big races…
Newbury
1:15
I quite like the look of Chozen in this.
He won on his seasonal - and chasing debut - at Southwell, at the start of last season.
He probably would have won next time as well - but fell when going strongly at Newcastle.
He didn’t run again for nearly 6 months - but then made a successful return at Ffos Las, when he battled on gamely for a narrow win.
Those 2 victories show that he is a horse who’s at his best when fresh.
Given his running style, that’s not a great surprise, as he is a very keen racer.
The Ffos Las win also shows that he can handle cut in the ground: if you can cope with Ffos Las soft, you can cope with soft, just about anywhere !
The doubts concern his level of ability - as this is a better race than he usually contests.
That said, he is just 7 - and has only raced 11 times under rules - so it’s quite likely that he’s not yet reached his peak.
Assuming he is allowed to stride on (which is what I expect), then he could get an uncontested lead.
If that happens - and assuming his jumping holds up - then I think he could be hard to peg back.
1:50
I was half tempted by Soul Emotion in this.
Just over a year ago, he ran in the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle at Ascot,
He was quite well fancied for that race, but disappointed - and worse, collapsed after crossing the line.
Thankfully he recovered - and there were no signs of lasting damage when he made his return at Newbury, last month.
He ran a fair race that day - travelling nicely to the home straight, when a lack of peak fitness seemed to catch him out.
The handicapper has dropped him 3lb for that run - but he is still on a mark of 147, which is high.
He may be up to defying it - but this is a tough race as he’s in against some potential improvers…
One for Rosie and Severano are the 2 obvious ones - with the last named looking particularly dangerous.
He’s still a novice - but he’s an experienced one - and a talented one.
I suspect his mark of 134, under-estimates him and he looks the most likely race winner, to me.
Now look at Me and Dorking Boy are other potential dangers, in a race which is likely to throw up more than its fair share of future winners.
2:25
I think it is worth taking a risk on Indy Five in this.
With recent form figures of F0PP, the case form him doesn’t stand out - but if you delve a little deeper, it’s not hard to make…
Prior that uninspiring run, his form figures read 1F12 - and more than that, they had some real substance to them.
The second place, was behind subsequent Scottish National winner, Takingrisks.
Indy Five ran him to 2 lengths, with the winner running from a mark 20lb lower than he is currently rated.
Indy Five on the other hand, was running from a mark 14lb higher than the one he races off today.
If the 2 of them met now, Takingrisks would be 34lb worse off for a 2 length victory !
Ofcourse, weights and distances don’t tell all - the other important factor is the form of the horse.
The suggestion is that Indy Five is right out of form - but I’m not convinced that is the case.
Last time, he travelled with real purpose at Wincanton - despite an SP of 50/1 - only weakening out of things, after the home turn.
If that run was needed (which may well have been the case), then I can see him going very close today.
He won over todays course, 2 seasons ago - and on soft ground. That was also off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
In short, if he’s back to form, he could easily win this - and that’s not often something you can say about a 20/1 shot !
3:00
£25K for winning a grade 1 race seems pretty poor - but that’s the first prize on offer for this race.
In fairness, it’s still attracted a decent field - I guess the prestige helps with that.
Thyme Hill heads the market - and he strikes me as by far the most likely winner.
He finished third in a red hot edition of the Champion bumper, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and has made a seamless switch to hurdles.
He won the grade 2 Persian War hurdle on his seasonal debut: and followed that up by winning another grade 2 event at the Cheltenham November meeting.
On each occasion, he was a comfortable victor - and it’s hard to know how good he is.
My guess is that he’s pretty good - and whilst he faces some useful opposition today, I expect them to be dispatched in similar fashion.
The market makes The Cashel Man his chief rival - and whilst the formbook agrees, he hasn’t got the same potential for improvement as the other 3 runners.
Ofcourse, they may simply not be good enough - but I’d still rather take a risk on one of them, if I was going to oppose the favourite.
Eclair Surf is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - though the market is likely to gives clues as to whether any of them will be good enough.
Without that knowledge, I’d have to side with the favourite.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Kateson in this.
I tipped him last season, when he was beaten at Aintree - but I don’t think he handled the quick ground that day.
He really wants cut - and granted those conditions, it strikes me that he will prove himself much better than his current rating of 138.
Certainly, if you look at his hurdle form of last season, you don’t see a 138 rated horse.
He ran a close third in the Challow hurlde on this card 12 months ago, and was surrounded by horses who are all now rated in the 150s.
That’s more how I view him - but a series of runs on unsuitable ground have resulted in him being rated significantly lower.
In fairness, he did get soft ground on his most recent run - when making his chasing debut at Exeter.
He was beaten that day - but I suspect that was because his jockey committed him too early.
He looked by far the best horse in the race - but was worried out of things close home, by a real battler.
I would hope that connections will have learnt from that and he will be delivered later this afternoon.
In truth, he does face some potentially decent rivals today, so he will need to be near the top of his game.
Morning Vicar is a definite danger on his chasing debut.
He too could be very well handicapped - and he has been very well backed !
Down the Highway is the other one that particularly interests me.
I tipped him last time when he disappointed a Chepstow - though it later transpired that he hurt himself stepping on his shoe.
If you ignore that run, he is over-priced at 12/1.
Leopardstown
2:00
It feels a little strange for Apples Jade not to be a short priced fav for a race of this nature…
For so long, she has dominated these kind of races - certainly in the first half of the season - but her star appears to be on the wane…
It all started to go wrong in last seasons Champion hurdle.
She was sent off a short priced fav for that race - but ran really disappointingly.
She bounced back at Aintree - where although she was beaten, she showed more of her old zest. However that was the last time we saw her sparkle…
Another disappointing run at Punchestown has been followed by 2 below par efforts this season.
Simply, she doesn’t look the horse she once was.
Connections reach for cheek pieces today - but it looks to be more in hope, than expectation…
Assuming she continues in the doldrums, then this race looks between the Willie Mullins duo: Penhill and Barcardys.
Paul Townend has plumped for the latter - and that probably explains why he is favourite.
Penhill is the slightly better horse according to official ratings - and is also the more likely to be suited by the 3 mile trip.
I would find it hard to choose between the pair - so at odds of 7/2, would have to go with Penhill.
In truth though, this is probably a watching race…
3:10
It strikes me that Anibale Fly is seriously over-priced in this race.
To some extent, I can understand why.
He’s 9 years old - and up against some younger, improving horses, who have already shown top class form.
He also finished last on his seasonal debut (miles behind Presenting Percy) - and prior to that, had run in a handicap (admittedly it was the Grand National - but all the same !).
However, it is also possible to view him far more positively…
He has been placed in the last 2 runnings of the Cheltenham Gold cup - and on those pieces of form he holds both Presenting Percy and Road to Respect (the second and third favs in todays race).
He also hacked up in the Paddy Power chase, 2 years ago - showing that todays course and distance are perfect for him.
However, the real key to Anibale Fly, is soft ground.
Given soft ground, he is more than capable of mixing it with the best of them, over 3 miles.
And soft ground is precisely what he will get this afternoon.
In fact, watching the racing at Leopardstown yesterday, I was surprised at just how soft it appeared to be riding.
If this turns into a war of attrition, then it will suit Anibale fly perfectly - and with Monalee and Kemboy in the race, that has to be a possibility.
If he returns in peak form, then Kemboy is clearly the one to beat - but I wouldn’t want to take 7/4 on a seasonal debutante in a race of this nature.
Presenting Percy is the other one I fear - though he still has to prove he is back to his best.
I reckon a peak form Anibale Fly can deal with the rest - so lets just hope the 2 big guns aren’t firing on all cylinders !
Limerick
2:50
I wouldn’t ordinarily tip at one of the minor meetings - but this is a big race, so hopefully it will work OK.
I was slightly fearful of Redhotfillypeppers,when I tipped Chris’s Dream in the Troytown, back in November.
Consequently, I kept quite a close eye on her throughout the race - and she travelled really well.
However, she was ultimately found out, either by the trip - or by a lack of fitness - and she ended up a well beaten fifth.
In fairness, that as still a very good run.
The Troytown is a top handicap - and Fitzhenry and Winter Escape, 2 of the horse who ran well in that race, franked the form by also running well in yesterdays Paddy Power chase.
The Paddy Power winner, Roaring Bull, was well behind that day - but I suspect he showed much improved form yesterday !
I don’t think Redhotfillypeppers will have to improve very much at all, to take this.
Her form from last season, suggests that she is competitively handicapped on a mark of 130 - though she is still young enough to be open to improvement.
I also like the fact that she is Willie Mullins sole runner in the race.
I’m sure his focus is currently on Leopardstown - but he is still the man to beat in races like this.
Of the others, the Shady Operator is definitely worth a mention.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, before disappointing last time, in the Troytown.
He sports first time blinkers today - and if they liven him up, he could be capable of outrunning his odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 1:15 Chozen 0.5pt win 16/1
Newb 2:25 Indy Five 0.5pt win 20/1
Newb 3:35 Kateson 1pt win 11/2
Leop 3:10 Anibale Fly 0.5pt win 25/1
Lim 2:50 Redhotfillypeppers 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Newb 1:50 Servano (O )
Newb 3:00 Thyme Hill (P )
Leop 2:00 Penhill (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
It was nice to tip a winner this afternoon - and end a mini
draught - but I couldn’t help thinking, that I should have done a whole lot
better…
I had 6 horses on my list of possible tips this morning - Fingerontheswitch was a NR - but 3 of the other 5 won !
When you consider that I only managed 1 winner from 4 tips, that’s some going !I
The 2 that ‘got away’ were A Plus Tard - who I rejected because his price was in free-fall and I thought there may be a late NR (I wanted to tip him EW) - and Global Citizen.
I eventually decided against the latter on account of the ground - and instead tipped Grand Sancy.
Those are the kind of decisions that can haunt you !
Fortunately, I stuck with the biggest priced runner from my original list - and under a great ride from ‘Go to Paddy’ he got the job done.
As I said this morning, Tiquer is a horse who has been on my radar literally for years (I’m in this game for the long haul !).
I knew he had his conditions today - and suspected that he would be primed for the job.
It also looked an eminently winnable race - and that's how it turned out.
In the race itself, he was always close up - and when Paddy pressed the button after jumping the second last, he bounded clear.
It was a joy to watch !
He was returned at 16/1 - so a little shorter than the advised price.
That said, 25/1 was freely available when I issued the tip, so I would hope that those of you with bookmaker accounts managed to achieve that.
Ofcourse, those of you who target beating BSP, should have done even better, as his BSP was just under 40 !
I know it won’t stop people from jumping on as soon as I issue the tips - but those following at BSP are now 15pts ahead of those following at advised price - and they don’t have hassle either !
That really is food for thought…
Anyway, after that it was downhill - from a tipping perspective, at least !
Grand Sancy was the next tip to run - and whilst he ran really well, he was no match for Global Citizen (see above !).
The ground clearly wasn’t too soft for him (as I feared) - or quite soft enough for Gand Sancy - and the class of Global Citizen got him home.
A mighty frustrating one !
Next it was Elysian Flame.
He was a risky one - based on his run at Cheltenham.
In fairness, he jumped much better today - but was no match for all the way winner, Allmankind.
He was given a beautifully judged ride by Harry Skelton - and was much too good for his rivals.
Vieux Morvan was the final tip to run.
I rarely tip EW - and today showed why !
He was still front rank - and probably going well enough - when he clouted a fence and unshipped Oakley Brown.
2 bets lost in one movement :(
As for the Mentions:
Then A Plus Tard got the better of a battle with Chacun pour Soi.
I knew it was a possibility - but simply there was no point at which I could tip him at an acceptable price.
These things happen…
All of the days other Mentions justified my decision not to tip them.
Both Ask Dillon and Yala Enki ran well to finish third in their respective races at Chepstow.
Sceau Royal filled the same position at Kempton - though I was left feeling he could have won, if he had been given a more committed ride (I suspect the jockey was mindful of the ground).
Culture de Sivola went off too hard - and had nothing left in the straight: whilst Belami des Pictons was just disappointing (I guess he may have bled again).
On balance, it wasn’t a bad day - it just could have been a fair bit better.
Still, I guess that leaves me with something to aim for tomorrow :)
TVB.
I had 6 horses on my list of possible tips this morning - Fingerontheswitch was a NR - but 3 of the other 5 won !
When you consider that I only managed 1 winner from 4 tips, that’s some going !I
The 2 that ‘got away’ were A Plus Tard - who I rejected because his price was in free-fall and I thought there may be a late NR (I wanted to tip him EW) - and Global Citizen.
I eventually decided against the latter on account of the ground - and instead tipped Grand Sancy.
Those are the kind of decisions that can haunt you !
Fortunately, I stuck with the biggest priced runner from my original list - and under a great ride from ‘Go to Paddy’ he got the job done.
As I said this morning, Tiquer is a horse who has been on my radar literally for years (I’m in this game for the long haul !).
I knew he had his conditions today - and suspected that he would be primed for the job.
It also looked an eminently winnable race - and that's how it turned out.
In the race itself, he was always close up - and when Paddy pressed the button after jumping the second last, he bounded clear.
It was a joy to watch !
He was returned at 16/1 - so a little shorter than the advised price.
That said, 25/1 was freely available when I issued the tip, so I would hope that those of you with bookmaker accounts managed to achieve that.
Ofcourse, those of you who target beating BSP, should have done even better, as his BSP was just under 40 !
I know it won’t stop people from jumping on as soon as I issue the tips - but those following at BSP are now 15pts ahead of those following at advised price - and they don’t have hassle either !
That really is food for thought…
Anyway, after that it was downhill - from a tipping perspective, at least !
Grand Sancy was the next tip to run - and whilst he ran really well, he was no match for Global Citizen (see above !).
The ground clearly wasn’t too soft for him (as I feared) - or quite soft enough for Gand Sancy - and the class of Global Citizen got him home.
A mighty frustrating one !
Next it was Elysian Flame.
He was a risky one - based on his run at Cheltenham.
In fairness, he jumped much better today - but was no match for all the way winner, Allmankind.
He was given a beautifully judged ride by Harry Skelton - and was much too good for his rivals.
Vieux Morvan was the final tip to run.
I rarely tip EW - and today showed why !
He was still front rank - and probably going well enough - when he clouted a fence and unshipped Oakley Brown.
2 bets lost in one movement :(
As for the Mentions:
Then A Plus Tard got the better of a battle with Chacun pour Soi.
I knew it was a possibility - but simply there was no point at which I could tip him at an acceptable price.
These things happen…
All of the days other Mentions justified my decision not to tip them.
Both Ask Dillon and Yala Enki ran well to finish third in their respective races at Chepstow.
Sceau Royal filled the same position at Kempton - though I was left feeling he could have won, if he had been given a more committed ride (I suspect the jockey was mindful of the ground).
Culture de Sivola went off too hard - and had nothing left in the straight: whilst Belami des Pictons was just disappointing (I guess he may have bled again).
On balance, it wasn’t a bad day - it just could have been a fair bit better.
Still, I guess that leaves me with something to aim for tomorrow :)
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 27th
There are 5 NH meetings this afternoon: at Kempton, Chepstow and Wetherby in the
UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.
There may not be quite as many meetings as yesterday - but the dip in quality is only marginal !
Chepstow host the main race of the day: the Welsh Grand National - supported by the Grade 1 Finale juvenile hurdle.
It’s a similar situation at Leopardstown, where the Paddy Power chase is the feature event on the card - supported by 2 Grade 1 contests !
Kempton has to play third fiddle - as it can only offer a couple of Grade 2 events !
There are some fair races taking place at both Wetherby and Limerick - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and 3 meetings is more than enough for me to try and get my head round !
In terms of bets/tips, then there are probably more opportunities today than there were yesterday.
That said, with such competitive racing, finding winners is never going to be easy.
I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day (the fifth was a NR).
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on most of the days other big races…
Kempton
1:20
I instinctively feel that Fanion Destruval should be taken on in this.
He was a massively impressive winner on his UK debut for Venetia, at Newbury last month - but that was in a modest 0-140 handicap.
He shoots up to Grade 2 company this afternoon - and whilst he may be up to the task, I wouldn’t be remotely interested in him at odds of 11/8.
The problem, is figuring out what to take him on with.
On better ground, I would be very keen on Global Citizen - but I’m far from convinced that he will enjoy the borderline heavy conditions.
Conditions will be no issue for Grand Sancy - and he performed quite well on his fencing debut in the grade 1 event at Sandown.
Assuming he builds on that, he will take a bit of beating.
Al Dancer is the other one worthy of consideration.
He’s probably the most solid option - but he has to carry a 3lb penalty and that makes him vulnerable.
On balance, I feel that Grand Sancy is probably the best bet.
I felt that a 5/1 early this morning, there was only a bit of value in his price - but a late drift to 6/1, has enticed me in !
Let’s hope that proves to be a good decision !
1:55
I’m struggling to see much of an angle into this race.
Culture de Sivola won the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and looks the one to beat, off a mark just 5lb higher this afternoon.
Unlike many of her rivals, she will have no issue with either the ground or the trip - and she looks the one to beat.
However, she’s not an overly big mare, so carrying top weight is not ideal: whilst she has been well found in the market.
She tends to hit a flat spot in her races, so my inclination would be to wait for that to happen (about half a mile from home !) - and then look to back her in-running…
Half cases can be made for most of her rivals - but non of them are rock solid.
More than that, the market appears to have them all in roughly the right place.
Time to move on…
2:30
On decent ground, Sceau Royal would very much be the one to beat in this.
He’s a borderline grade 1 performer, who briefly looked like winning the Champion chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
He ended up third in that race - but it still represents a level of form way beyond the capabilities of most of the rivals he faces today.
It also showed that he can handle soft ground - even if it’s not his preferred surface.
A lot will depend this afternoon, on exactly how soft the ground is.
The going description was changed to ‘soft with heavy patches’ yesterday afternoon - and if that’s the case, I think Sceua Royal may struggle.
In that case, Duc des Genievres should be the one to beat - based on official ratings.
He hacked up in last seasons Arkle - however that race did fall apart and he’s been well beaten in 3 subsequent runs.
He gets first time blinkers today, in an attempt to perk him up - and the fact that Willie Mullins sends him over to contest the race, is an interesting move.
All this said, he would be a hard one to support…
With Bun Doran unlikely to appreciate the ground - and Caid du Lin seemingly outclassed, Capeland becomes the most likely race winner.
That seems a little bizarre, as he’s really only a decent handicapper - even if he does seem to have improved recently.
Everything considered, I find this an impossible race to draw a conclusion on.
Sceau Royal should really be different class - but the ground is a great leveller - and if he doesn't handle it, he won’t be winning !
3:05
Looking through this race, I was quite shocked by the number of runners who I felt couldn’t win !
Most are either badly handicapped - or are likely to have an issue with either the ground or the distance (or both !)
The obvious exception is Belami des Pictons - but he’s been installed 9/4 fav and bled on his penultimate outing !
In the circumstances, I felt it was worth taking a risk on Fingerontheswitch - however, his connections have withdrawn him this morning on account of the ground (which I understand - even if I don’t completely agree with !).
In his absence, then Quarenta is probably the most solid option - though he looks quite beatable.
In all probability the race will be won by one of the market principals - with Belami des Pictons the most likely winner, assuming he doesn’t bleed again.
However, I really can’t get involved with him at the available odds.
Chepstow
1:05
Tiquer is a horse that I’ve been monitoring for quite literally years !
The issue with him, is that he’s very fragile - and tends to only make the racecourse, once or twice a season.
The thing about horses like him, is that when they do get to run, connections usually have them spot on.
Tiquer needs a very specific set of conditions: 2m4f and soft ground. Given such conditions, he’s capable of very useful form…
He got those conditions at Newbury in March 2018 - and beat Kayf Adventure by 8 lengths.
That one re-opposes on 3lb better terms today - but the outcome should be the same…
Whilst todays race is a class 2 event, it doesn’t look the strongest.
5 of the 7 runners were pulled up on their most recent outing - and one of the others, hasn’t run for over a year (and would prefer better ground).
As a consequence, Eceparti looks the one to beat.
He’s won his 2 most recent races very easily - though they were class 4 events, so he could find todays opposition a lot tougher (assuming any of them recapture their form !).
Of the others, the Whatwrongwithyou could find the trip too far (he’s a strong travelling 2 miler); whilst Springtown Lake could find it too short (he really wants 3 miles - though may get away with it if conditions are particularly demanding).
In short, there are chinks in the armour of all of the runners - which means that Tiquer is worth a small risk at a decent price.
1:35
Having watched Elysian Flame jump like a hairy goat on his debut at Cheltenham, I really didn’t think I would be tipping him at 13/2 in a grade 1 event next time !
And whilst this isn’t the strongest of races, I still didn’t think that I would be tipping him at 13/2, when he opened up at 14/1 last night !
That seemed a perfectly reasonable price, up against one of the favs for the Triumph hurdle - along with a horse with decent form, sent over from Ireland - but no !
And reality, all the early support has done, is convince me that he has to be tipped !
The horse is trained by Mick Easterby - and there are few shrewder judges in the game.
In truth, it’s little odd that he is pitching the horse into grade 1 company on only it’s second run over hurdles (particularly as it jumped so poorly first time)
The trouble is, I can see the argument…
The horse is very decent on the flat (rated 91) - and he absolutely loves heavy ground.
He may have jumped like a goat at Cheltenham - but he was still only beaten 9 lengths.
If the jumping issues have been resolved - then in ideal conditions, he’s going to run a big race.
More than that, the fav - and second fav - both look vulnerable.
Allmankind is seriously headstrong - and Harry Skelton is going to have to produce some ride, to get him home in what is likely to be energy sapping conditions.
And whilst Cerberus should cope with conditions, A Wave of the Sea hardly advertised his form, with a muted show at Leopardstown yesterday…
Tavis and Maskad can both be given a chance - with the latter quite attractive at a big price.
For the winner though, I’m happy to trust in Mick and Elysian Flame - hopefully they won’t let me down !
2:10
If Acey Milan can repeat the form of his last time out second at Haydock, then he should win this.
That was a huge run - and he was arguably unlucky not to win - mugged late by a fast finisher.
He’s up 4lb for that effort - but this doesn’t look to be as strong a race, and he is very much the one to beat.
That said, the market is fully aware of the situation - and he represents no value at a current price of 15/8.
In fact, he is so short, it is quite tempting to find something to take him on with !
Ask Dillon could be the one on his handicap debut - though stepping up to 3 miles, first time out on heavy Chepstow ground, is quite an ask.
If anyone can ready him though - Fergal can.
Half chances can be given to Clyne, Perfect Man, Evas Oscar and Sykes - but again, the market seems to have them positioned about right.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race.
2:50
Elegant Escape is bidding to win the Welsh National for the second successive year - and despite running from a mark 9lb higher, the market expects him to be successful.
That’s mainly because he ran an eye catching ‘trial’ in the Ladbrokes trophy - and as he’s still only 7, there’s a real possibility that he’s improved since last year.
He definitely has a good chance - but there are a number of quite strong contenders and I wouldn’t want to take 7/2 about anything in the race.
Now McGinty has been my long term fancy for the race - and he’s another with a big chance.
He pushed Santini close at Sandown in November - and on that form, will take all the beating.
He also beat De Rasher Counter at Chepstow last season, form which looks particularly strong now.
Again, the issue with him is the price - 11/2 leaves no room for error.
Yala Enki is the third one of major interest - on his second run for Paul Nichols.
He was trained by Venetia when finishing third in last years renewal - and must have a fair chance of reversing the form with Elegant Escape, on 8lb better terms.
Prime Venture, Potters Corner and Truckers Lodge, are 3 more of potential interest - though all looked priced about right.
Whilst of those at bigger prices, Pop Rockstar is the one that interests me most.
At around 8/1, Yala Enki is just about the best bet in the race - but there is minimal margin in that price.
Leopardstown
1:10
I saw sorely tempted to take a chance on A Plus Tard in this.
I think he’s probably the second best horse in the race: and the one that is probably the best - Chacun pour Soi - is not the most robust of animals.
The issue with A Plus Tard, is that he’s not really a 2 miler - and this race is over 2 miles !
I’ll be a little surprised if he finishes out of the first 3 - but far less surprised if he is beaten.
At an early price of 10/1, with 8 runners in the race (and therefore 3 places), he would have been an EW tip.
However, the price has already been cut to 7/1 - and with the possibility of a NR messing up the place terms, I don’t want to get involved.
Suffice to say, Chacun pour Soi should win - but he does come with risks.
A Plus Tard is a class animal - but he really wants a trip of 2m4f (or further !) and therefore could easily find himself short of pace at a crucial time.
2:55
I want to side with Vieux Morvan in this.
He’s a horse who first came to my attention, when he ran fifth in the corresponding race, 2 years ago.
That was his first run for Joseph O’Brien, having been trained previously in France.
He ran a massive race that day, leading and jumping for fun - until he hit the second last fence.
Ultimately he weakened into fifth place - but I was still keen to be with him next time.
That turned out to be at the Dublin racing festival - and he again ran a massive race to finish second to Last Goodbye.
His next few runs were disappointing, but he then bounced back to form in this race last year, when finishing second to surprise winner Auvergnat.
He was well beaten by the winner - but still finished ahead of Fitzhenry and Any Second Now.
Those 2 re-oppose this afternoon - but on worse terms, they shouldn’t really reverse the form.
Certainly back down to a mark just 1lb higher than a year ago - Vieux Morvan is handicapped to run very well.
Furthermore that doesn’t include the 7lb claim of his jockey, Oakley Brown.
This lad is new onto the scene - but from what I’ve seen so far he looks a real talent - and his 7lb claim is something of a gift.
Ofcouse in a race of this nature, nothing I guaranteed.
Furthermore with Vieux Morvan about to reach 11, he’s unlikely to be improving and therefore vulnerable to one that is.
That said, I expect Joseph O’Brien will have him spot of for this - and I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t run a huge race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chep 1:05 Tiquer 0.5pt win 20/1
Chep 1:35 Elysian Flame 0.75pt win 13/2
Leop 2:55 Vieux Morvan 0.5pt EW 16/1
Kemp 1:20 Grand Sancy 1pt win 6/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Culture de Sivola (P )
Kemp 2:30 Sceau Royal (C )
Kemp 3:05 Belami des Pictons (P )
Chep 2:10 Ask Dillon (C )
Chep 2:50 Yala Enki (O )
Leop 1:10 A Plus Tard (C )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
There may not be quite as many meetings as yesterday - but the dip in quality is only marginal !
Chepstow host the main race of the day: the Welsh Grand National - supported by the Grade 1 Finale juvenile hurdle.
It’s a similar situation at Leopardstown, where the Paddy Power chase is the feature event on the card - supported by 2 Grade 1 contests !
Kempton has to play third fiddle - as it can only offer a couple of Grade 2 events !
There are some fair races taking place at both Wetherby and Limerick - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and 3 meetings is more than enough for me to try and get my head round !
In terms of bets/tips, then there are probably more opportunities today than there were yesterday.
That said, with such competitive racing, finding winners is never going to be easy.
I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day (the fifth was a NR).
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on most of the days other big races…
Kempton
1:20
I instinctively feel that Fanion Destruval should be taken on in this.
He was a massively impressive winner on his UK debut for Venetia, at Newbury last month - but that was in a modest 0-140 handicap.
He shoots up to Grade 2 company this afternoon - and whilst he may be up to the task, I wouldn’t be remotely interested in him at odds of 11/8.
The problem, is figuring out what to take him on with.
On better ground, I would be very keen on Global Citizen - but I’m far from convinced that he will enjoy the borderline heavy conditions.
Conditions will be no issue for Grand Sancy - and he performed quite well on his fencing debut in the grade 1 event at Sandown.
Assuming he builds on that, he will take a bit of beating.
Al Dancer is the other one worthy of consideration.
He’s probably the most solid option - but he has to carry a 3lb penalty and that makes him vulnerable.
On balance, I feel that Grand Sancy is probably the best bet.
I felt that a 5/1 early this morning, there was only a bit of value in his price - but a late drift to 6/1, has enticed me in !
Let’s hope that proves to be a good decision !
1:55
I’m struggling to see much of an angle into this race.
Culture de Sivola won the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and looks the one to beat, off a mark just 5lb higher this afternoon.
Unlike many of her rivals, she will have no issue with either the ground or the trip - and she looks the one to beat.
However, she’s not an overly big mare, so carrying top weight is not ideal: whilst she has been well found in the market.
She tends to hit a flat spot in her races, so my inclination would be to wait for that to happen (about half a mile from home !) - and then look to back her in-running…
Half cases can be made for most of her rivals - but non of them are rock solid.
More than that, the market appears to have them all in roughly the right place.
Time to move on…
2:30
On decent ground, Sceau Royal would very much be the one to beat in this.
He’s a borderline grade 1 performer, who briefly looked like winning the Champion chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
He ended up third in that race - but it still represents a level of form way beyond the capabilities of most of the rivals he faces today.
It also showed that he can handle soft ground - even if it’s not his preferred surface.
A lot will depend this afternoon, on exactly how soft the ground is.
The going description was changed to ‘soft with heavy patches’ yesterday afternoon - and if that’s the case, I think Sceua Royal may struggle.
In that case, Duc des Genievres should be the one to beat - based on official ratings.
He hacked up in last seasons Arkle - however that race did fall apart and he’s been well beaten in 3 subsequent runs.
He gets first time blinkers today, in an attempt to perk him up - and the fact that Willie Mullins sends him over to contest the race, is an interesting move.
All this said, he would be a hard one to support…
With Bun Doran unlikely to appreciate the ground - and Caid du Lin seemingly outclassed, Capeland becomes the most likely race winner.
That seems a little bizarre, as he’s really only a decent handicapper - even if he does seem to have improved recently.
Everything considered, I find this an impossible race to draw a conclusion on.
Sceau Royal should really be different class - but the ground is a great leveller - and if he doesn't handle it, he won’t be winning !
3:05
Looking through this race, I was quite shocked by the number of runners who I felt couldn’t win !
Most are either badly handicapped - or are likely to have an issue with either the ground or the distance (or both !)
The obvious exception is Belami des Pictons - but he’s been installed 9/4 fav and bled on his penultimate outing !
In the circumstances, I felt it was worth taking a risk on Fingerontheswitch - however, his connections have withdrawn him this morning on account of the ground (which I understand - even if I don’t completely agree with !).
In his absence, then Quarenta is probably the most solid option - though he looks quite beatable.
In all probability the race will be won by one of the market principals - with Belami des Pictons the most likely winner, assuming he doesn’t bleed again.
However, I really can’t get involved with him at the available odds.
Chepstow
1:05
Tiquer is a horse that I’ve been monitoring for quite literally years !
The issue with him, is that he’s very fragile - and tends to only make the racecourse, once or twice a season.
The thing about horses like him, is that when they do get to run, connections usually have them spot on.
Tiquer needs a very specific set of conditions: 2m4f and soft ground. Given such conditions, he’s capable of very useful form…
He got those conditions at Newbury in March 2018 - and beat Kayf Adventure by 8 lengths.
That one re-opposes on 3lb better terms today - but the outcome should be the same…
Whilst todays race is a class 2 event, it doesn’t look the strongest.
5 of the 7 runners were pulled up on their most recent outing - and one of the others, hasn’t run for over a year (and would prefer better ground).
As a consequence, Eceparti looks the one to beat.
He’s won his 2 most recent races very easily - though they were class 4 events, so he could find todays opposition a lot tougher (assuming any of them recapture their form !).
Of the others, the Whatwrongwithyou could find the trip too far (he’s a strong travelling 2 miler); whilst Springtown Lake could find it too short (he really wants 3 miles - though may get away with it if conditions are particularly demanding).
In short, there are chinks in the armour of all of the runners - which means that Tiquer is worth a small risk at a decent price.
1:35
Having watched Elysian Flame jump like a hairy goat on his debut at Cheltenham, I really didn’t think I would be tipping him at 13/2 in a grade 1 event next time !
And whilst this isn’t the strongest of races, I still didn’t think that I would be tipping him at 13/2, when he opened up at 14/1 last night !
That seemed a perfectly reasonable price, up against one of the favs for the Triumph hurdle - along with a horse with decent form, sent over from Ireland - but no !
And reality, all the early support has done, is convince me that he has to be tipped !
The horse is trained by Mick Easterby - and there are few shrewder judges in the game.
In truth, it’s little odd that he is pitching the horse into grade 1 company on only it’s second run over hurdles (particularly as it jumped so poorly first time)
The trouble is, I can see the argument…
The horse is very decent on the flat (rated 91) - and he absolutely loves heavy ground.
He may have jumped like a goat at Cheltenham - but he was still only beaten 9 lengths.
If the jumping issues have been resolved - then in ideal conditions, he’s going to run a big race.
More than that, the fav - and second fav - both look vulnerable.
Allmankind is seriously headstrong - and Harry Skelton is going to have to produce some ride, to get him home in what is likely to be energy sapping conditions.
And whilst Cerberus should cope with conditions, A Wave of the Sea hardly advertised his form, with a muted show at Leopardstown yesterday…
Tavis and Maskad can both be given a chance - with the latter quite attractive at a big price.
For the winner though, I’m happy to trust in Mick and Elysian Flame - hopefully they won’t let me down !
2:10
If Acey Milan can repeat the form of his last time out second at Haydock, then he should win this.
That was a huge run - and he was arguably unlucky not to win - mugged late by a fast finisher.
He’s up 4lb for that effort - but this doesn’t look to be as strong a race, and he is very much the one to beat.
That said, the market is fully aware of the situation - and he represents no value at a current price of 15/8.
In fact, he is so short, it is quite tempting to find something to take him on with !
Ask Dillon could be the one on his handicap debut - though stepping up to 3 miles, first time out on heavy Chepstow ground, is quite an ask.
If anyone can ready him though - Fergal can.
Half chances can be given to Clyne, Perfect Man, Evas Oscar and Sykes - but again, the market seems to have them positioned about right.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race.
2:50
Elegant Escape is bidding to win the Welsh National for the second successive year - and despite running from a mark 9lb higher, the market expects him to be successful.
That’s mainly because he ran an eye catching ‘trial’ in the Ladbrokes trophy - and as he’s still only 7, there’s a real possibility that he’s improved since last year.
He definitely has a good chance - but there are a number of quite strong contenders and I wouldn’t want to take 7/2 about anything in the race.
Now McGinty has been my long term fancy for the race - and he’s another with a big chance.
He pushed Santini close at Sandown in November - and on that form, will take all the beating.
He also beat De Rasher Counter at Chepstow last season, form which looks particularly strong now.
Again, the issue with him is the price - 11/2 leaves no room for error.
Yala Enki is the third one of major interest - on his second run for Paul Nichols.
He was trained by Venetia when finishing third in last years renewal - and must have a fair chance of reversing the form with Elegant Escape, on 8lb better terms.
Prime Venture, Potters Corner and Truckers Lodge, are 3 more of potential interest - though all looked priced about right.
Whilst of those at bigger prices, Pop Rockstar is the one that interests me most.
At around 8/1, Yala Enki is just about the best bet in the race - but there is minimal margin in that price.
Leopardstown
1:10
I saw sorely tempted to take a chance on A Plus Tard in this.
I think he’s probably the second best horse in the race: and the one that is probably the best - Chacun pour Soi - is not the most robust of animals.
The issue with A Plus Tard, is that he’s not really a 2 miler - and this race is over 2 miles !
I’ll be a little surprised if he finishes out of the first 3 - but far less surprised if he is beaten.
At an early price of 10/1, with 8 runners in the race (and therefore 3 places), he would have been an EW tip.
However, the price has already been cut to 7/1 - and with the possibility of a NR messing up the place terms, I don’t want to get involved.
Suffice to say, Chacun pour Soi should win - but he does come with risks.
A Plus Tard is a class animal - but he really wants a trip of 2m4f (or further !) and therefore could easily find himself short of pace at a crucial time.
2:55
I want to side with Vieux Morvan in this.
He’s a horse who first came to my attention, when he ran fifth in the corresponding race, 2 years ago.
That was his first run for Joseph O’Brien, having been trained previously in France.
He ran a massive race that day, leading and jumping for fun - until he hit the second last fence.
Ultimately he weakened into fifth place - but I was still keen to be with him next time.
That turned out to be at the Dublin racing festival - and he again ran a massive race to finish second to Last Goodbye.
His next few runs were disappointing, but he then bounced back to form in this race last year, when finishing second to surprise winner Auvergnat.
He was well beaten by the winner - but still finished ahead of Fitzhenry and Any Second Now.
Those 2 re-oppose this afternoon - but on worse terms, they shouldn’t really reverse the form.
Certainly back down to a mark just 1lb higher than a year ago - Vieux Morvan is handicapped to run very well.
Furthermore that doesn’t include the 7lb claim of his jockey, Oakley Brown.
This lad is new onto the scene - but from what I’ve seen so far he looks a real talent - and his 7lb claim is something of a gift.
Ofcouse in a race of this nature, nothing I guaranteed.
Furthermore with Vieux Morvan about to reach 11, he’s unlikely to be improving and therefore vulnerable to one that is.
That said, I expect Joseph O’Brien will have him spot of for this - and I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t run a huge race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chep 1:05 Tiquer 0.5pt win 20/1
Chep 1:35 Elysian Flame 0.75pt win 13/2
Leop 2:55 Vieux Morvan 0.5pt EW 16/1
Kemp 1:20 Grand Sancy 1pt win 6/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Culture de Sivola (P )
Kemp 2:30 Sceau Royal (C )
Kemp 3:05 Belami des Pictons (P )
Chep 2:10 Ask Dillon (C )
Chep 2:50 Yala Enki (O )
Leop 1:10 A Plus Tard (C )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
Despite the volume of racing today (or maybe because of it
!), I kept things tight and only issued 3 tips.
And unfortunately, as has been the case recently, whilst all 3 ran well, non of them ran well enough to come home in front…
As I’ve said many times before, you need a bit of luck in this game and Hold the Note certainly didn’t get any…
He was the first tip to run - and was still going very nicely in behind the favourite Roll Again, when that one fell at the seventh last.
Hold the Note was left with nowhere to go - and whilst Tom Scudamore managed to stay in the saddle, the horse was brought to a halt.
Understandably, he was quickly pulled up…
It was too far out to say the Hold the Note would have won - but he still had every chance, and at the time, was trading at just 4 in-running on Betfair.
Not the best way to start the day !
Next it was Elixir de Nutz.
He ran an honest race: leading to the home turn, before backing out of things…
In truth, even if he’d been at his best, I doubt he would have contained Epatante.
As I said this morning, she still had plenty to prove - but she proved most of it today, and is now a worthy favourite for the Champion hurdle.
Colonel Custard was the final tip on the day - and like Elixir, he ran an honest race but wasn’t good enough.
I did briefly think that Our Power might make me regret not taking a risk on him - but after looking very threatening, he could only plug on for third place.
As for the Mentions:
Then Black Op was another who ran a solid race - but he wasn’t good enough to cope with Slate House.
By Contrast, his stablemate, Lostintranslation, ran no kind of race in the King George and was pulled up.
I couldn’t have foreseen that - but I could have foreseen Cyrname setting up the race perfectly for Clan des Obeaus to repeat last years win.
Over at Wetherby, Didero Vallis ran really well - but was no match for Top Ville Ben.
At his favourite venue - but ridden with more restraint than normal - the winner bolted clear, in the manner of a high class horse.
Finally at Leopardstown, Sacchoandvanzeti was very disappointing in the 3 year old hurdle, running no sort of a race, behind impressive winner, Aspire Tower.
Whilst the 2 mile novice chase panned out pretty much as I expected, with Fakir Doudaires lack of gears getting exposed.
However, it was Notebook who exposed him - rather than the favourite, Laurina…
TVB.
And unfortunately, as has been the case recently, whilst all 3 ran well, non of them ran well enough to come home in front…
As I’ve said many times before, you need a bit of luck in this game and Hold the Note certainly didn’t get any…
He was the first tip to run - and was still going very nicely in behind the favourite Roll Again, when that one fell at the seventh last.
Hold the Note was left with nowhere to go - and whilst Tom Scudamore managed to stay in the saddle, the horse was brought to a halt.
Understandably, he was quickly pulled up…
It was too far out to say the Hold the Note would have won - but he still had every chance, and at the time, was trading at just 4 in-running on Betfair.
Not the best way to start the day !
Next it was Elixir de Nutz.
He ran an honest race: leading to the home turn, before backing out of things…
In truth, even if he’d been at his best, I doubt he would have contained Epatante.
As I said this morning, she still had plenty to prove - but she proved most of it today, and is now a worthy favourite for the Champion hurdle.
Colonel Custard was the final tip on the day - and like Elixir, he ran an honest race but wasn’t good enough.
I did briefly think that Our Power might make me regret not taking a risk on him - but after looking very threatening, he could only plug on for third place.
As for the Mentions:
Then Black Op was another who ran a solid race - but he wasn’t good enough to cope with Slate House.
By Contrast, his stablemate, Lostintranslation, ran no kind of race in the King George and was pulled up.
I couldn’t have foreseen that - but I could have foreseen Cyrname setting up the race perfectly for Clan des Obeaus to repeat last years win.
Over at Wetherby, Didero Vallis ran really well - but was no match for Top Ville Ben.
At his favourite venue - but ridden with more restraint than normal - the winner bolted clear, in the manner of a high class horse.
Finally at Leopardstown, Sacchoandvanzeti was very disappointing in the 3 year old hurdle, running no sort of a race, behind impressive winner, Aspire Tower.
Whilst the 2 mile novice chase panned out pretty much as I expected, with Fakir Doudaires lack of gears getting exposed.
However, it was Notebook who exposed him - rather than the favourite, Laurina…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 26th
Even with the abandonment of Huntingdon, there are still 9 NH
meetings taking place today, across the length and breadth of the British Isles.
It’s fair to say, it’s a busy old day !
And with so much racing taking place, there is always a danger that I will spread myself too thinly, trying to cover everything…
In fairness, all 9 of the meetings have at least a couple of interesting races - and given time, I’m sure I could have found a tip or two at each of them.
However, I’ve not got that time - and I very much doubt that many of you would have been able to get on anything that I did tip, away from the main meetings !
Therefore, I focused on the days 3 biggest meetings: Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown.
Kempton hosts the days feature race - a fascinating running of the King George VI chase. It is supported by a couple of other grade 1 races: the Kauto Star novice chase and the Christmas hurdle.
Leopardstown also host a grade 1 race: the Racing Post novice chase; and whilst Wetherby can’t quite match that, their feature, the grade 3 Rowland Meyrick chase, has drawn a good class field.
Safe to say, there is no shortage of quality action !
That said, with more uncertainty over the weather - and consequently, ground conditions - I’ve not gone mad with the tips.
I’ve ended up with just 3 on the day - all at Kempton.
Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other big races at the main meetings.
Kempton
1:20
Mick Channon has a habit of running his best novice chaser in this particular race.
In 2017 it was subsequent Cheltenham festival winner, Mister Whitaker; whilst last year, it was Glen Forsa.
This year he relies on Hold the Note - and I think we should take the hint…
Unlike the other 2 (who were both 6), Hold the Note is just 5 years old and has only run 6 times under rules.
That said, he has shown decent form: in bumpers, over hurdles - and most recently on his chasing debut over fences.
That was in a fair novice chase at Ludlow, where, despite only being the 4th best horse in the race on official ratings, Hold the Note was sent off a very strong 13/8 fav.
He ran well, too - only weakening out of things, after jumping the second last.
The suggestion was that he would come on for the run (his first in 9 months) - and if that is the case, he should go well, based purely on the from.
That said, the case for him is based as much around what was expected, as opposed to what was actually achieved.
The bare form of an 8 length defeat by the 140 rated Western Ryder, gives him a chance today - but the fact he was well backed to beat that horse at level weights, suggests he could be a fair bit better than his current mark.
That, coupled with Channon’s excellent record in the race - make me feel that he is worthy of support…
In fairness, this could be a race full of potential improvers.
It’s understandable that Roll Again is a short priced fav, as he is 6lb ‘well in’ following his impressive win at Ludlow.
Whilst, the fact he is trained by Venetia, simply adds to his case.
Others who could also be involved, include Doctor Dex and Commanche Red: whilst at a big price, I would keep an eye on Muratello, who could be a fair bit better than his form so far, suggests…
1:55
I was hoping to tip Black Op in this - but he has been well backed this morning.
He was an easy 3/1 shot, when the declarations were released - and I was hoping he might even drift to 7/2 - but alas, that didn’t happen !
Instead he has shortened to 5/2 - and I think that’s about the right price.
Whilst he lacks the potential of some of his rivals, I think he has the best form in the race - both over hurdles and over fences.
He should also appreciate any rain - and whilst there is a question mark over his ability to stay 3 miles, I don’t think that will be an issue.
There is also a slight question mark over his effectiveness right handed - but again, I think he will cope.
Of more concern, is the possibility that he might get harried for the lead.
He has run really will in his 2 chase starts this season - but on both occasions, he’s had an uncontested lead.
Master Tommytucker also likes to front run, so a lot will depend on how that potential battle works itself out.
If Master Tommytucker got the run of the race, then he would rate a big danger.
As too could his stablemate, Danny Whizzbang - though he really wants soft ground (which he may well get).
Slate House and Jarveys Plate are the other 2 who warrant consideration: with preference being for the former (as I’m not entirely convinced that Kempton will suit Jarveys Plate).
In short, it’s a race where 5 can be given a chance - and whilst I make Black Op the most likely winner, much will depend on ground conditions and how the race pans out.
At a price, I would be prepared to take a risk on Black Op - but I don’t see any margin in odds of 5/2.
2:30
I think that the Christmas hurdle is a fair but more open that the betting suggests.
Fusil Raffles has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst it’s hard to crab an unbeaten horse, he’s going to need to show significant improvement on his last time out defeat of the 152 rated Grand Sancey, when in receipt of 3lb.
I suspect he will show significant improvement - but it’s not guaranteed in the way the market suggests !
Second fav, Epatante, is another who will need to post a personal best, if she is to win.
She was successful last time, in a handicap, of a mark of just 137.
She has been raised to 150 on the back of that - but we don’t even know if the rise was justified, never mind whether she can be competitive at the highest level…
In fairness, this isn’t the strongest grade 1 ever run - which is part of the reason why Fusil Raffles and Epatante are so short.
Their form is comparable with that of most of their rivals - but they also have potential, which many of the others don’t.
If the ground was riding quick, then Verdana Blue would probably be the race favourite: but she has a marked preference for decent ground: whilst to a slightly less extent, the same is true of Silver Streak…
Ch’tibello is arguably the most solid option in the race - and I would expect him to be placed.
However, he has limitations - and shouldn’t really be able to win a race of this nature…
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a small risk on Elixir de Nutz.
He was a top class novice last season - and when he won the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle, he beat Grand Sancey by roughly the same distance as Fusil Raffles did.
On the back of that, he was one of the market leaders for the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - but he picked up an injury and missed that race.
In fact, he wasn’t seen on the track again, until 2 weeks ago, when he ran in the Grade 2 International hurdle at Cheltenham.
He ultimately finished well behind Ballyandy and Ch’tibello that day - but he raced with relish and the run was almost certainly badly needed.
He will need to have come on massively for that run - but I suspect he will have done just that.
Ideally I would have liked a couple more weeks for him - but opportunities at this level, are limited.
Ultimately, we know he has form that would put him right in the mix today - and that he still has scope for improvement.
If he is anywhere near his peak, then I suspect he can go close, in what looks a very winnable race.
The other one worthy of a quick mention, is Aussie raider Big Blue.
I can’t make him an official tip - but in such an open race, he is definitely worth a couple of quid, at a triple figure price !
3:05
There may only be 5 runners in the feature race of the Christmas period - but it should still be a thriller !
It sees 2 potential superstars going head-to-head - with the winner likely to be acclaimed ‘the best NH horse in training’ !
The 2 horses in question are Cyrname and Lostintranslation.
The former has made his name with 3 breath-taking displays of front running at Ascot - lowering the colours of the mighty Altior on the most recent occasion.
Whilst the latter, has also recorded 3 hugely impressive wins from his 3 most recent outings - jumping like a buck each time and showing himself effective in a variety of conditions.
It really will be fascinating to see which one comes out on top: with Cyrname likely to lead from the off - and Lostintranslation looking to pounce up the home straight.
My feeling is that Lostintranslation will come out best - but it’s hardly one that you could feel confident about.
Furthermore, there is also last seasons winner, Clan des Obeaux, to consider.
Cyrname should ensure that he gets the race run exactly as he would want - and he certainly has sufficient class to prevent this from being a two horse race.
Whatever the result, it should be a real treat to witness !
3:40
This looks quite an open race and I think it is worth taking a chance on Colonel Custard…
He’s a relatively unexposed second season novice, with only 7 runs over hurdles.
He was quite highly tried last season when he twice ran in graded company (from just 5 outings).
On his 2 outings this season, he has run in handicaps - being placed on each occasion.
Both times, he was sent off favourite - but both times, he was arguably unlucky to bump into a seriously progressive horse.
On the first occasion at Ffos Las, it was Monsieur Lecoq; whilst on his most recent run at Plumpton, it was Song for Someone.
Both of those horses are now rated nearly a stone higher than they were when they beat Colonel Custard - and have shown themselves competitive off their new ratings.
The rating of Colonel Custard on the other hand, remains unchanged...
Ofcourse there is a chance that he will bump into another seriously progressive horse this afternoon - though most of his rivals look quite exposed.
The exceptions are Laskadine and Our Power.
However, both are risky propositions - and I would expect the market to advise on their chances.
Mr Pumblechook is an understandable favourite - though I’m not sure he would want very soft ground.
Wetherby
2:10
I did intend to take a risk on Didero Vallis in this - but the price went before I could tip it…
It was a 10/1 shot yesterday - and I would have been prepared to take a chance at those odds. However, I suspect it was tipped early this morning - and was 6/1 at 9:00.
The horse is trained by Venetia - who is currently operating at a 50% strike rate.
In the circumstances, it’s not too surprising that people are prepared to take a risk on one of hers at a double figure price !
In terms of form - then the horse also has a chance.
I tipped it last time, when it ran a fair race at Aintree - and off a 2lb lower mark today, with a 7lb claimer on board, it is potentially well handicapped.
The big concern is the distance.
The horse has finished well beaten every time it has tackled todays trip of 3 miles.
I guess it’s stamina might improve with age (it’s only 6) - but it is a big question mark.
Aside from Didero, then Top Ville Ben and Bennys King look the 2 most interesting runners - but they are also first and second fav.
The former has an excellent record at the track - and ran really well last time, at Newcastle: Whilst the latter hacked up on his most recent outing at Newbury - and could well be capable of defying a rise in the handicap.
Leopardstown
1:10
The first of 2 graded events on the card - this is a 3 year old hurdle, so there isn’t too much form to work with…
What form there is, suggests that A Wave of the Sea, is the one to beat.
He’s already run 4 times over hurdles - and is yet to finish out of the first 2.
He’s also demonstrated a good level of form - and there is no reason to think that he won’t run his race again this afternoon.
The question is whether anything will be able to improve past him…
Aspire Tower is the obvious one.
He was really impressive when winning his sole hurdle race at Punchestown - and the form of that win, already puts him close to A Wave of the Sea.
As he should have much more improvement in him, it’s not surprising that he has been installed a short priced favourite.
I did spend a little time trying to see if I could find one to beat them both - but I didn’t come up with anything that I was totally happy with.
Clemencia is a possible. He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Cork - though it’s debatable what he beat that day.
The other one is Sacchoandvanzeti.
He’s already had 3 runs over hurdles - but seems to be improving.
His form doesn’t match that of the market principals - but he could be capable of running in to the frame, at a fair price…
2:20
The second graded race on the card, sees a clash between Laurina and Fakir D’oudaries.
The pair currently head the market for the Arkle - so whichever one wins today, is likely to become quite short priced favourite for that race.
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of Fakir Doudaries.
The horse is only 4 - but he jumps like a buck. Without wishing to tempt fate, you will rarely see a better jumping novice.
And it is his jumping prowess, which is encouraging people to think that he should be running over 2 miles.
Quick, accurate jumping over the minimum trip, is a often deadly - so I can see the argument.
However, I just don’t think that he’s a 2 miler.
He was exposed as a notch below the top class at 2 miles over hurdles - and I fear it will be the same over fences.
Certainly, if Laurina can live with his jumping, then I would expect her to have too much speed for him on the run in.
In truth, this isn’t even simply a 2 horse race: the other 3 runners can all be given some kind of chance - and a lot will depend on jumping and the race pace.
I’ll be very surprised if Fakir doesn’t run his race - and I would certainly expect him to finish in the first two.
However, I will be far less surprised if he finds one of his rivals too quick: Probably Laurina - but not definitely !
It’s fair to say, it’s a busy old day !
And with so much racing taking place, there is always a danger that I will spread myself too thinly, trying to cover everything…
In fairness, all 9 of the meetings have at least a couple of interesting races - and given time, I’m sure I could have found a tip or two at each of them.
However, I’ve not got that time - and I very much doubt that many of you would have been able to get on anything that I did tip, away from the main meetings !
Therefore, I focused on the days 3 biggest meetings: Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown.
Kempton hosts the days feature race - a fascinating running of the King George VI chase. It is supported by a couple of other grade 1 races: the Kauto Star novice chase and the Christmas hurdle.
Leopardstown also host a grade 1 race: the Racing Post novice chase; and whilst Wetherby can’t quite match that, their feature, the grade 3 Rowland Meyrick chase, has drawn a good class field.
Safe to say, there is no shortage of quality action !
That said, with more uncertainty over the weather - and consequently, ground conditions - I’ve not gone mad with the tips.
I’ve ended up with just 3 on the day - all at Kempton.
Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other big races at the main meetings.
Kempton
1:20
Mick Channon has a habit of running his best novice chaser in this particular race.
In 2017 it was subsequent Cheltenham festival winner, Mister Whitaker; whilst last year, it was Glen Forsa.
This year he relies on Hold the Note - and I think we should take the hint…
Unlike the other 2 (who were both 6), Hold the Note is just 5 years old and has only run 6 times under rules.
That said, he has shown decent form: in bumpers, over hurdles - and most recently on his chasing debut over fences.
That was in a fair novice chase at Ludlow, where, despite only being the 4th best horse in the race on official ratings, Hold the Note was sent off a very strong 13/8 fav.
He ran well, too - only weakening out of things, after jumping the second last.
The suggestion was that he would come on for the run (his first in 9 months) - and if that is the case, he should go well, based purely on the from.
That said, the case for him is based as much around what was expected, as opposed to what was actually achieved.
The bare form of an 8 length defeat by the 140 rated Western Ryder, gives him a chance today - but the fact he was well backed to beat that horse at level weights, suggests he could be a fair bit better than his current mark.
That, coupled with Channon’s excellent record in the race - make me feel that he is worthy of support…
In fairness, this could be a race full of potential improvers.
It’s understandable that Roll Again is a short priced fav, as he is 6lb ‘well in’ following his impressive win at Ludlow.
Whilst, the fact he is trained by Venetia, simply adds to his case.
Others who could also be involved, include Doctor Dex and Commanche Red: whilst at a big price, I would keep an eye on Muratello, who could be a fair bit better than his form so far, suggests…
1:55
I was hoping to tip Black Op in this - but he has been well backed this morning.
He was an easy 3/1 shot, when the declarations were released - and I was hoping he might even drift to 7/2 - but alas, that didn’t happen !
Instead he has shortened to 5/2 - and I think that’s about the right price.
Whilst he lacks the potential of some of his rivals, I think he has the best form in the race - both over hurdles and over fences.
He should also appreciate any rain - and whilst there is a question mark over his ability to stay 3 miles, I don’t think that will be an issue.
There is also a slight question mark over his effectiveness right handed - but again, I think he will cope.
Of more concern, is the possibility that he might get harried for the lead.
He has run really will in his 2 chase starts this season - but on both occasions, he’s had an uncontested lead.
Master Tommytucker also likes to front run, so a lot will depend on how that potential battle works itself out.
If Master Tommytucker got the run of the race, then he would rate a big danger.
As too could his stablemate, Danny Whizzbang - though he really wants soft ground (which he may well get).
Slate House and Jarveys Plate are the other 2 who warrant consideration: with preference being for the former (as I’m not entirely convinced that Kempton will suit Jarveys Plate).
In short, it’s a race where 5 can be given a chance - and whilst I make Black Op the most likely winner, much will depend on ground conditions and how the race pans out.
At a price, I would be prepared to take a risk on Black Op - but I don’t see any margin in odds of 5/2.
2:30
I think that the Christmas hurdle is a fair but more open that the betting suggests.
Fusil Raffles has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst it’s hard to crab an unbeaten horse, he’s going to need to show significant improvement on his last time out defeat of the 152 rated Grand Sancey, when in receipt of 3lb.
I suspect he will show significant improvement - but it’s not guaranteed in the way the market suggests !
Second fav, Epatante, is another who will need to post a personal best, if she is to win.
She was successful last time, in a handicap, of a mark of just 137.
She has been raised to 150 on the back of that - but we don’t even know if the rise was justified, never mind whether she can be competitive at the highest level…
In fairness, this isn’t the strongest grade 1 ever run - which is part of the reason why Fusil Raffles and Epatante are so short.
Their form is comparable with that of most of their rivals - but they also have potential, which many of the others don’t.
If the ground was riding quick, then Verdana Blue would probably be the race favourite: but she has a marked preference for decent ground: whilst to a slightly less extent, the same is true of Silver Streak…
Ch’tibello is arguably the most solid option in the race - and I would expect him to be placed.
However, he has limitations - and shouldn’t really be able to win a race of this nature…
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a small risk on Elixir de Nutz.
He was a top class novice last season - and when he won the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle, he beat Grand Sancey by roughly the same distance as Fusil Raffles did.
On the back of that, he was one of the market leaders for the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - but he picked up an injury and missed that race.
In fact, he wasn’t seen on the track again, until 2 weeks ago, when he ran in the Grade 2 International hurdle at Cheltenham.
He ultimately finished well behind Ballyandy and Ch’tibello that day - but he raced with relish and the run was almost certainly badly needed.
He will need to have come on massively for that run - but I suspect he will have done just that.
Ideally I would have liked a couple more weeks for him - but opportunities at this level, are limited.
Ultimately, we know he has form that would put him right in the mix today - and that he still has scope for improvement.
If he is anywhere near his peak, then I suspect he can go close, in what looks a very winnable race.
The other one worthy of a quick mention, is Aussie raider Big Blue.
I can’t make him an official tip - but in such an open race, he is definitely worth a couple of quid, at a triple figure price !
3:05
There may only be 5 runners in the feature race of the Christmas period - but it should still be a thriller !
It sees 2 potential superstars going head-to-head - with the winner likely to be acclaimed ‘the best NH horse in training’ !
The 2 horses in question are Cyrname and Lostintranslation.
The former has made his name with 3 breath-taking displays of front running at Ascot - lowering the colours of the mighty Altior on the most recent occasion.
Whilst the latter, has also recorded 3 hugely impressive wins from his 3 most recent outings - jumping like a buck each time and showing himself effective in a variety of conditions.
It really will be fascinating to see which one comes out on top: with Cyrname likely to lead from the off - and Lostintranslation looking to pounce up the home straight.
My feeling is that Lostintranslation will come out best - but it’s hardly one that you could feel confident about.
Furthermore, there is also last seasons winner, Clan des Obeaux, to consider.
Cyrname should ensure that he gets the race run exactly as he would want - and he certainly has sufficient class to prevent this from being a two horse race.
Whatever the result, it should be a real treat to witness !
3:40
This looks quite an open race and I think it is worth taking a chance on Colonel Custard…
He’s a relatively unexposed second season novice, with only 7 runs over hurdles.
He was quite highly tried last season when he twice ran in graded company (from just 5 outings).
On his 2 outings this season, he has run in handicaps - being placed on each occasion.
Both times, he was sent off favourite - but both times, he was arguably unlucky to bump into a seriously progressive horse.
On the first occasion at Ffos Las, it was Monsieur Lecoq; whilst on his most recent run at Plumpton, it was Song for Someone.
Both of those horses are now rated nearly a stone higher than they were when they beat Colonel Custard - and have shown themselves competitive off their new ratings.
The rating of Colonel Custard on the other hand, remains unchanged...
Ofcourse there is a chance that he will bump into another seriously progressive horse this afternoon - though most of his rivals look quite exposed.
The exceptions are Laskadine and Our Power.
However, both are risky propositions - and I would expect the market to advise on their chances.
Mr Pumblechook is an understandable favourite - though I’m not sure he would want very soft ground.
Wetherby
2:10
I did intend to take a risk on Didero Vallis in this - but the price went before I could tip it…
It was a 10/1 shot yesterday - and I would have been prepared to take a chance at those odds. However, I suspect it was tipped early this morning - and was 6/1 at 9:00.
The horse is trained by Venetia - who is currently operating at a 50% strike rate.
In the circumstances, it’s not too surprising that people are prepared to take a risk on one of hers at a double figure price !
In terms of form - then the horse also has a chance.
I tipped it last time, when it ran a fair race at Aintree - and off a 2lb lower mark today, with a 7lb claimer on board, it is potentially well handicapped.
The big concern is the distance.
The horse has finished well beaten every time it has tackled todays trip of 3 miles.
I guess it’s stamina might improve with age (it’s only 6) - but it is a big question mark.
Aside from Didero, then Top Ville Ben and Bennys King look the 2 most interesting runners - but they are also first and second fav.
The former has an excellent record at the track - and ran really well last time, at Newcastle: Whilst the latter hacked up on his most recent outing at Newbury - and could well be capable of defying a rise in the handicap.
Leopardstown
1:10
The first of 2 graded events on the card - this is a 3 year old hurdle, so there isn’t too much form to work with…
What form there is, suggests that A Wave of the Sea, is the one to beat.
He’s already run 4 times over hurdles - and is yet to finish out of the first 2.
He’s also demonstrated a good level of form - and there is no reason to think that he won’t run his race again this afternoon.
The question is whether anything will be able to improve past him…
Aspire Tower is the obvious one.
He was really impressive when winning his sole hurdle race at Punchestown - and the form of that win, already puts him close to A Wave of the Sea.
As he should have much more improvement in him, it’s not surprising that he has been installed a short priced favourite.
I did spend a little time trying to see if I could find one to beat them both - but I didn’t come up with anything that I was totally happy with.
Clemencia is a possible. He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Cork - though it’s debatable what he beat that day.
The other one is Sacchoandvanzeti.
He’s already had 3 runs over hurdles - but seems to be improving.
His form doesn’t match that of the market principals - but he could be capable of running in to the frame, at a fair price…
2:20
The second graded race on the card, sees a clash between Laurina and Fakir D’oudaries.
The pair currently head the market for the Arkle - so whichever one wins today, is likely to become quite short priced favourite for that race.
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of Fakir Doudaries.
The horse is only 4 - but he jumps like a buck. Without wishing to tempt fate, you will rarely see a better jumping novice.
And it is his jumping prowess, which is encouraging people to think that he should be running over 2 miles.
Quick, accurate jumping over the minimum trip, is a often deadly - so I can see the argument.
However, I just don’t think that he’s a 2 miler.
He was exposed as a notch below the top class at 2 miles over hurdles - and I fear it will be the same over fences.
Certainly, if Laurina can live with his jumping, then I would expect her to have too much speed for him on the run in.
In truth, this isn’t even simply a 2 horse race: the other 3 runners can all be given some kind of chance - and a lot will depend on jumping and the race pace.
I’ll be very surprised if Fakir doesn’t run his race - and I would certainly expect him to finish in the first two.
However, I will be far less surprised if he finds one of his rivals too quick: Probably Laurina - but not definitely !
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 1:20 Hold the Note 1pt win 11/2
Kemp 2:30 Elixir de Nutz 0.5pt win 16/1
Kemp 3:40 Colonel Custard 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Black Op (P )
Kemp 3:05 Lostintranslation (P )
Weth 2:10 Didero Vallis (C )
Leop 1:10 Sacchoandvanzeti (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 1:20 Hold the Note 1pt win 11/2
Kemp 2:30 Elixir de Nutz 0.5pt win 16/1
Kemp 3:40 Colonel Custard 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Black Op (P )
Kemp 3:05 Lostintranslation (P )
Weth 2:10 Didero Vallis (C )
Leop 1:10 Sacchoandvanzeti (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
There was no joy this afternoon - which was a bit
disappointing, as I thought I’d found some good ones…
In fairness, most of the tips did run really well - but as I’ve said before, running really well is no good when you are backing win only !
Garde le Victoire and First Flow were the first to run - and they both performed with credit.
Garde le Victoire was a late drifter - and on his first outing for over a year, it did look as if the run was needed.
I’m sure he will go close, next time.
I knew that was a possibility, and therefore tipped First Flow as well.
He was too short this morning at 3/1, for me to back him properly - but it didn’t stop him being supported in to 2/1 at the off !
He ran a really big race - leading into the straight.
However, Espoir de Guye was always cantering behind - and he cruised past on the run to the second last.
I still suspect that First Flow is a well handicapped horse - but unfortunately, Espoir de Guye was a very well handicapped horse !
Next, it was Jerrysback - and he too ran a fine race.
Barry Geraghty never seemed able to find a route that he was completely happy with - but the horse still put down a challenge, on the approach to the last.
However, he was 1 of 4 in with a chance at that point - and 2 of the others, got the better of him.
There were no excuses. He ran a big race - and was only beaten a couple of lengths into third place.
Off the Hook also finished third, at Haydock - but she didn’t run anywhere near as well.
In fact, she looked beaten before the home turn - and whilst she did plug on late, she was never troubling the leaders.
I expected better from her…
Monsieur Lecoq was the final tip on the day - and he ran a huge race.
Unfortunately for him, he bumped into a handicap blot, in the shape on Not so Sleepy.
It’s not often you see such a competitive handicap taken apart.
But Not so Sleepy came home 9 lengths clear of Monsieur Lecoq - who himself, was 5 lengths clear of the third.
It’s very frustrating when that happens…
There was no joy for the Mentions either - assuming you read them literally !
Paloma Blue didn’t get home at Ascot, where Riders inthe Storm was a hugely impressive winner; whilst Agrapart couldn’t take advantage of Paisley Parks absence - or L’ami Serges desire not to win !
Over at Haydock, Orchardtown Cross once again ran disappointingly - but fortunately, I had decided to leave the race well alone.
The only glimmer of light on the day, was provided by Flashjack.
As I said this morning, I wanted to tip him - but felt that Big Shark could be different class.
Coming to the last, the race was between the pair - but it was the greater experience of Flashjack that won the day, in a driving finish.
I guess the moral of the story is: never be afraid of one horse…
TVB.
In fairness, most of the tips did run really well - but as I’ve said before, running really well is no good when you are backing win only !
Garde le Victoire and First Flow were the first to run - and they both performed with credit.
Garde le Victoire was a late drifter - and on his first outing for over a year, it did look as if the run was needed.
I’m sure he will go close, next time.
I knew that was a possibility, and therefore tipped First Flow as well.
He was too short this morning at 3/1, for me to back him properly - but it didn’t stop him being supported in to 2/1 at the off !
He ran a really big race - leading into the straight.
However, Espoir de Guye was always cantering behind - and he cruised past on the run to the second last.
I still suspect that First Flow is a well handicapped horse - but unfortunately, Espoir de Guye was a very well handicapped horse !
Next, it was Jerrysback - and he too ran a fine race.
Barry Geraghty never seemed able to find a route that he was completely happy with - but the horse still put down a challenge, on the approach to the last.
However, he was 1 of 4 in with a chance at that point - and 2 of the others, got the better of him.
There were no excuses. He ran a big race - and was only beaten a couple of lengths into third place.
Off the Hook also finished third, at Haydock - but she didn’t run anywhere near as well.
In fact, she looked beaten before the home turn - and whilst she did plug on late, she was never troubling the leaders.
I expected better from her…
Monsieur Lecoq was the final tip on the day - and he ran a huge race.
Unfortunately for him, he bumped into a handicap blot, in the shape on Not so Sleepy.
It’s not often you see such a competitive handicap taken apart.
But Not so Sleepy came home 9 lengths clear of Monsieur Lecoq - who himself, was 5 lengths clear of the third.
It’s very frustrating when that happens…
There was no joy for the Mentions either - assuming you read them literally !
Paloma Blue didn’t get home at Ascot, where Riders inthe Storm was a hugely impressive winner; whilst Agrapart couldn’t take advantage of Paisley Parks absence - or L’ami Serges desire not to win !
Over at Haydock, Orchardtown Cross once again ran disappointingly - but fortunately, I had decided to leave the race well alone.
The only glimmer of light on the day, was provided by Flashjack.
As I said this morning, I wanted to tip him - but felt that Big Shark could be different class.
Coming to the last, the race was between the pair - but it was the greater experience of Flashjack that won the day, in a driving finish.
I guess the moral of the story is: never be afraid of one horse…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 21st
There are 4 NH meetings taking place today: at Ascot, Haydock
and Newcastle in the UK - plus Thurles in Ireland.
I think this is the seventh weekend of the TVB season - and I reckon that it’s rained on every one of them !
More than that, it was definitely raining the weekend before the season started - so that’s at least 8 consecutive weekends of rain !
In the circumstances, it’s not too surprising that meetings are struggling to take place - and those that do survive are being run on desperate ground - with small fields, an understandable consequence.
Hopefully, Ascot will survive today.
The ground looked very soft yesterday - and there was even more rain overnight.
Assuming they do race, then I can only imagine how it will ride this afternoon.
I suspect conditions will be similar at Haydock.
It’s a track known for its deep ground, even at the best of times - and weather-wise, these are hardly the best of times !
Anyway, it is what it is.
We can’t change conditions - so we’ve just got to get on with things (or opt out !)
In fairness, there are some decent races across the days 2 big meetings - and with the ground likely to sort out the runners, the big fields aren’t quite as scary as they might superficially appear.
Ofcourse,that means that the odds on offer aren’t quite as generous as we might like - but you can’t have everything.
I’ve ended up with 5 tips on the day - across 4 races.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races…
Ascot
1:15
When I first looked at this race, my feeling was that I wanted to be with Paloma Blue.
He was a very decent novice hurdler 2 seasons ago (border line top class) - and whilst he disappointed a little last season, when put over fences, he still ran to a decent level.
More than that, the suggestion from his seasonal debut run behind the potentially top class Getabird, is that he could be ready to pick up the thread from his novice hurdling days - and if that is the case, he should win this.
It adds to his case, that Henry de Bromhead has sent him over to run in the race (bearing in mind how many options he will have in Ireland over the Christmas period) - whilst Davy Russell on top, is another big plus.
However, the ground, is a real concern - or more specifically, the ground coupled with the trip, is a real concern…
Over 2 miles, I would have little issue with Paloma Blue on heavy ground - however he is unproven over todays trip of 2m5f, and the ground is likely to put stamina at a premium.
He may get away with it - but equally, he may not…
If he doesn’t then Riders onthe storm looks the one most likely to benefit, on the back of his scintillating stable debut for Nigel Twiston Davies.
He looked a much improved horse when bolting up in a hot handicap at Aintree.
That said, he will need to be much improved, as Paloma Blue was definitely his superior when they were both running in Ireland.
The other 3 runners are all useful: but On the Blind Side and Double Shuffle may well struggle on the ground; whilst Adrian de Pont is rated 7lb inferior to Riders onthe Storm.
1:50
As the market would suggest, this race is most likely to be won by either First Flow or Espoir de Guye.
Both are relatively unexposed novices, who could be way ahead of their current marks.
First Flow in particular, could easily have 10lb in hand - and if that’s the case, he will take some beating.
He was a very useful novice hurdler, 2 seasons back - when he was sent off at just 12/1 for the supreme novice hurdle, at the Cheltenham festival.
He disappointed that day - and only ran once last season - but he’s returned this campaign over fences, as has looked as good as ever.
I was particularly impressed by his penultimate run over todays course and distance, when he really put it up to Angels Breath.
That one won again yesterday - and is likely to be rated around 155. First Flow runs today off a mark of just 140…
The other big positive with him, is his need for soft ground. I’m pretty sure he will get that this afternoon..!
Espoire de Guye is rated 10lb inferior to First Flow - but that is still 9lb higher than he would have been rated if he’d not dotted up in a weak race at Exeter, last time out.
He could easily be capable of defying his new mark - and he will also relish underfoot conditions - but he will find todays race a lot tougher.
If neither of them were running, then I would be very keen on Garde le Victoire.
Formerly a top class handicapper/borderline graded horse, he’s not seen much action for the past 2 seasons - but as a consequence, the handicapper has cut him some serious slack.
Rated 158 at his peak - and having won off 154 - he gets to run today off a mark of just 144.
He’s 10 - so probably just past his best - but hardly in terminal decline !
He has a decent record fresh - and should have no issue with conditions.
At 14/1, he is definitely worth a small play.
Rather than back him EW, I would prefer to have a saver on one of the ‘big 2’.
I prefer First Flow to Espoir de Guye - so he is the one I’m siding with.
Hopefully Garde le Victoire will be able to beat them both - but if he can’t then there’s a good chance that First Flow will save the stakes (with a bit of interest !).
2:25
Paisley Park should win this - provided he handles the ground.
He’s rated at least a stone superior to all of his rivals - and come into todays race on the back an impressive seasonal debut victory over Thistlecrack.
He’s a horse at the peak of his powers - and all things being equal, really should dispatch the 5 horses who line up against him.
All this said, the ground is a worry…
His worse runs have come on soft ground - and he’s never run on ground as soft as he’ll face today.
I would hope that he’ll get away with it - mainly because he should win even if he’s a fair way below his best - but I wouldn’t bet on it (at least not at odds of 1/4 !)
It doesn’t help that most of his rivals relish heavy conditions !
It can’t be too heavy for Agrapart and Papagana; whilst L’Ami Serge and Tobefair, will both be quite at home in the mud.
Of the 4, then Agrapart probably interests me most at the odds.
He’s fallen hugely in the weights - but will be perfectly suited by conditions and could be worth a small play at around 25/1, if you do want an involvement in the race.
3:00
I like the look of Jerrysback in this.
He’s relatively unexposed over fences - with just the 6 runs - but he’s shown very good form on a few occasions.
His comfortable defeat of the now 144 rated Mulcahys Hill at Bangor reads well: but not as well as his narrow defeat by the now 159 rated Vinndication.
He also ran with enormous credit in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham festival - travelling best until half a mile out, when his stamina gave way.
He runs off a mark of just 143 this afternoon - and I’m pretty sure he’s at least 7lb better than that.
He should also be perfectly suited by todays 3 mile trip in heavy ground - and he’s proved himself around Ascot.
In short, there are ticks in plenty of boxes…
In fairness, this is quite a hot race (as you would expect).
Yalltari and Mister Malarky are 2 very dangerous looking second season novices.
There shouldn’t be much between them based on their run Reynoldstown, over todays course and distance, back in February.
I’d have a slight preference for Yalltari - but it would be slight !
Kildisart also has a fair chance, based on his defeat of Mister Malarkey - though he’s unproven on heavy ground.
Whilst Acting Lass is the other one that I’m a little wary of.
He was a winning tip at Chepstow last time - and whilst he is up 5lb for that win and this is a much stronger race, I suspect he has potential for further improvement…
3:35
This is one of those races, which I spent a long time trying to solve (probably too long !) - and kept on reaching a different conclusion !
I started off by fancying Quoi de Neuf, to give Evan Williams another big race win - but then slightly cooled on him, as I wasn’t completely convinced by his finishing effort at Cheltenham.
Next I latched on to Umbrigado, for David Pipe - but then started to worry whether he will have the pace for todays minimum trip (even accepting that stamina is likely to imperative).
Tamroc du Matan was next to be seriously considered - but this might be too tough a race for him at this point in his career; and the same argument can be levelled at Countiser - who has the 4th horse I seriously considered…
At this point, I was half tempted to give up on the race - but I’ve done very well unravelling the big handicaps this season - even if I’ve not tipped all of my conclusions !
I therefore went back to Quoi de Neuf and re-watched his Cheltenham race (the Greatwood).
He was beaten by Harambe and Monsieur Lecoq that day - and on second viewing, it became clear to me that Monsieur Lecoq was the best horse in the race.
He looked to have the race won, half way up the hill - but then idled and was worried out of it close home.
He’s 1lb worse off with Quoi de Neuf today - but he looks a much tougher horse (his additional jockey claim also means he will actually be carrying 2lb less).
What was putting me off Monsieur Lecoq, was that he ran as recently as last Saturday in the International hurdle.
He finished a perfectly creditable fourth in that race - and ran up the hill like a lion.
I suspect that he could have won - but Lizzy Kelly was keen not to let him hit the front too soon, following the run in the Greatwood.
I think she just overdid the waiting tactics…
Anyway, connections should have learnt plenty about the horse - and I now actually view the fact he is being allowed to run again so quickly, as a positive !
He may be carrying top weight - but that doesn’t mean he is badly handicapped.
Furthermore, it is quite noticeable how well top weights have recently performed in this race (won 2 of the last 3 runnings).
Clearly, Monsieur Lecoq is no certainty - but having considered all of the options (!), he’s the one I most want to be with.
Haydock
2:05
When I first looked at this race, I was hopeful that I would be able to find an angle for supporting Flashjack.
He’s a horse I like - and I tipped him on the opening day of the TVB season, when he finished third at Ayr.
He’s a massive horse, who wants the ground as deep as possible - which I'm sure he will get today !
I doubt he’ll have an issue with the weight he has to carry - but looking at the opposition, I think he might have an issue with at least one of them !
Flashjack is a class 3 horse - at best - but I fear he may have bumped into one who could be a fair bit better than that…
Big Shark is unbeaten in 2 novice hurdles this season - and the form of them looks very strong.
When he won at Worcester back in October, he beat One for the Team, with Go Whatever back in fifth place.
Both of those horses have since come out and run really well in much better races, suggesting that was a particularly strong maiden.
Similarly, Mr Muldoon, who Big Shark beat by 10 lengths at Hereford last time, came out and bolted up at Ascot yesterday.
It’s impossible to assess Big Shark accurately - but it looks at if he could be a 140+ horse.
He runs off 133 today - with Ben Jones taking off a further 5lb.
Suffice to say, if he handles conditions, he’s going to take a world of beating…
2:40
I looked at this race earlier in the week, and was pretty keen on the chances of Daklondike.
I tipped him when he won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and whilst he has to race off a mark 6lb higher today, he’s a relatively young horse, so it’s reasonable to think that he will have made that much improvement during the past 12 months.
He’ll relish the heavy ground - and his stable are in excellent from (better than they were 12 months ago).
However, when the final declarations came through, there were a couple of things that put me off…
Firstly, David Noonan is riding, rather than Tom Scudamore.
Scudamore is first jockey to Davd Pipe and his ridden the horse for all of its wins - however, he has gone to Ascot for one ride (Umbrigado).
Secondly, the horse is wearing no head gear - despite having shown all of his best form in head gear.
If Scudamore was riding, I may have been prepared to overlook that - but two concerns, is one too many !
My feeling now, is that he’s being readied for another day (probably back at Haydock - but from a slightly lower mark).
The trouble is, if I take him out of the race, then I’ve no idea what will win it !
Vintage Cloud could be the one. He’s well enough handicapped - and should have no issue with conditions.
However, he had a bad time at Aintree, on his most recent outing and there must be a chance that will have affected his confidence.
The Hollow Ginge is the safe option - but he’s also the race favourite.
From a betting perspective, Orchardtown Cross makes more appeal.
His latest run at Ascot will need to be ignored - but he was on an upward curve prior to that, so if that it was just a blip, he has a definite chance.
3:15
I tipped Off the Hook at the back end of last season, when she ran in the NH mares final at Newbury - and I want to be with her again today.
She didn’t win that race - but she ran really well and finished an honourable fourth.
I don’t know whether she ran up to expectations of connections - but she was put away for the summer, following that run and didn’t reappear until Ayr, last month.
She only finished sixth in the Ayr race - but she travelled nicely and my feeling was that she would come on significantly for the run.
The handicapper dropped her a pound for the effort, which means that she runs today from a mark 3lb lower than at Newbury (when I thought he could win !).
My feeling is that she is a well handicapped horse - but that’s not the main attraction with her today…
Her best run last season, was when she finished third in the listed mares race, run earlier on todays card.
That race is run over the same course and distance as this one - and was also run on heavy ground.
She was beaten 2 lengths by the 135 rated Queenofhearts - with the now 146 rated Papagana, a length behind.
Off the Hook races today off a mark of 118 - so she not only does she have ideal conditions - she could be thrown in !
The other big attraction with her, is the actual weight that she carries.
In heavy ground, every pound makes a difference. She will be carrying just 10st2lb - that’s 24lb less than top weight, Poetic Rhythm - and there has to be a chance that will count, at the business end of the race…
I think this is the seventh weekend of the TVB season - and I reckon that it’s rained on every one of them !
More than that, it was definitely raining the weekend before the season started - so that’s at least 8 consecutive weekends of rain !
In the circumstances, it’s not too surprising that meetings are struggling to take place - and those that do survive are being run on desperate ground - with small fields, an understandable consequence.
Hopefully, Ascot will survive today.
The ground looked very soft yesterday - and there was even more rain overnight.
Assuming they do race, then I can only imagine how it will ride this afternoon.
I suspect conditions will be similar at Haydock.
It’s a track known for its deep ground, even at the best of times - and weather-wise, these are hardly the best of times !
Anyway, it is what it is.
We can’t change conditions - so we’ve just got to get on with things (or opt out !)
In fairness, there are some decent races across the days 2 big meetings - and with the ground likely to sort out the runners, the big fields aren’t quite as scary as they might superficially appear.
Ofcourse,that means that the odds on offer aren’t quite as generous as we might like - but you can’t have everything.
I’ve ended up with 5 tips on the day - across 4 races.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races…
Ascot
1:15
When I first looked at this race, my feeling was that I wanted to be with Paloma Blue.
He was a very decent novice hurdler 2 seasons ago (border line top class) - and whilst he disappointed a little last season, when put over fences, he still ran to a decent level.
More than that, the suggestion from his seasonal debut run behind the potentially top class Getabird, is that he could be ready to pick up the thread from his novice hurdling days - and if that is the case, he should win this.
It adds to his case, that Henry de Bromhead has sent him over to run in the race (bearing in mind how many options he will have in Ireland over the Christmas period) - whilst Davy Russell on top, is another big plus.
However, the ground, is a real concern - or more specifically, the ground coupled with the trip, is a real concern…
Over 2 miles, I would have little issue with Paloma Blue on heavy ground - however he is unproven over todays trip of 2m5f, and the ground is likely to put stamina at a premium.
He may get away with it - but equally, he may not…
If he doesn’t then Riders onthe storm looks the one most likely to benefit, on the back of his scintillating stable debut for Nigel Twiston Davies.
He looked a much improved horse when bolting up in a hot handicap at Aintree.
That said, he will need to be much improved, as Paloma Blue was definitely his superior when they were both running in Ireland.
The other 3 runners are all useful: but On the Blind Side and Double Shuffle may well struggle on the ground; whilst Adrian de Pont is rated 7lb inferior to Riders onthe Storm.
1:50
As the market would suggest, this race is most likely to be won by either First Flow or Espoir de Guye.
Both are relatively unexposed novices, who could be way ahead of their current marks.
First Flow in particular, could easily have 10lb in hand - and if that’s the case, he will take some beating.
He was a very useful novice hurdler, 2 seasons back - when he was sent off at just 12/1 for the supreme novice hurdle, at the Cheltenham festival.
He disappointed that day - and only ran once last season - but he’s returned this campaign over fences, as has looked as good as ever.
I was particularly impressed by his penultimate run over todays course and distance, when he really put it up to Angels Breath.
That one won again yesterday - and is likely to be rated around 155. First Flow runs today off a mark of just 140…
The other big positive with him, is his need for soft ground. I’m pretty sure he will get that this afternoon..!
Espoire de Guye is rated 10lb inferior to First Flow - but that is still 9lb higher than he would have been rated if he’d not dotted up in a weak race at Exeter, last time out.
He could easily be capable of defying his new mark - and he will also relish underfoot conditions - but he will find todays race a lot tougher.
If neither of them were running, then I would be very keen on Garde le Victoire.
Formerly a top class handicapper/borderline graded horse, he’s not seen much action for the past 2 seasons - but as a consequence, the handicapper has cut him some serious slack.
Rated 158 at his peak - and having won off 154 - he gets to run today off a mark of just 144.
He’s 10 - so probably just past his best - but hardly in terminal decline !
He has a decent record fresh - and should have no issue with conditions.
At 14/1, he is definitely worth a small play.
Rather than back him EW, I would prefer to have a saver on one of the ‘big 2’.
I prefer First Flow to Espoir de Guye - so he is the one I’m siding with.
Hopefully Garde le Victoire will be able to beat them both - but if he can’t then there’s a good chance that First Flow will save the stakes (with a bit of interest !).
2:25
Paisley Park should win this - provided he handles the ground.
He’s rated at least a stone superior to all of his rivals - and come into todays race on the back an impressive seasonal debut victory over Thistlecrack.
He’s a horse at the peak of his powers - and all things being equal, really should dispatch the 5 horses who line up against him.
All this said, the ground is a worry…
His worse runs have come on soft ground - and he’s never run on ground as soft as he’ll face today.
I would hope that he’ll get away with it - mainly because he should win even if he’s a fair way below his best - but I wouldn’t bet on it (at least not at odds of 1/4 !)
It doesn’t help that most of his rivals relish heavy conditions !
It can’t be too heavy for Agrapart and Papagana; whilst L’Ami Serge and Tobefair, will both be quite at home in the mud.
Of the 4, then Agrapart probably interests me most at the odds.
He’s fallen hugely in the weights - but will be perfectly suited by conditions and could be worth a small play at around 25/1, if you do want an involvement in the race.
3:00
I like the look of Jerrysback in this.
He’s relatively unexposed over fences - with just the 6 runs - but he’s shown very good form on a few occasions.
His comfortable defeat of the now 144 rated Mulcahys Hill at Bangor reads well: but not as well as his narrow defeat by the now 159 rated Vinndication.
He also ran with enormous credit in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham festival - travelling best until half a mile out, when his stamina gave way.
He runs off a mark of just 143 this afternoon - and I’m pretty sure he’s at least 7lb better than that.
He should also be perfectly suited by todays 3 mile trip in heavy ground - and he’s proved himself around Ascot.
In short, there are ticks in plenty of boxes…
In fairness, this is quite a hot race (as you would expect).
Yalltari and Mister Malarky are 2 very dangerous looking second season novices.
There shouldn’t be much between them based on their run Reynoldstown, over todays course and distance, back in February.
I’d have a slight preference for Yalltari - but it would be slight !
Kildisart also has a fair chance, based on his defeat of Mister Malarkey - though he’s unproven on heavy ground.
Whilst Acting Lass is the other one that I’m a little wary of.
He was a winning tip at Chepstow last time - and whilst he is up 5lb for that win and this is a much stronger race, I suspect he has potential for further improvement…
3:35
This is one of those races, which I spent a long time trying to solve (probably too long !) - and kept on reaching a different conclusion !
I started off by fancying Quoi de Neuf, to give Evan Williams another big race win - but then slightly cooled on him, as I wasn’t completely convinced by his finishing effort at Cheltenham.
Next I latched on to Umbrigado, for David Pipe - but then started to worry whether he will have the pace for todays minimum trip (even accepting that stamina is likely to imperative).
Tamroc du Matan was next to be seriously considered - but this might be too tough a race for him at this point in his career; and the same argument can be levelled at Countiser - who has the 4th horse I seriously considered…
At this point, I was half tempted to give up on the race - but I’ve done very well unravelling the big handicaps this season - even if I’ve not tipped all of my conclusions !
I therefore went back to Quoi de Neuf and re-watched his Cheltenham race (the Greatwood).
He was beaten by Harambe and Monsieur Lecoq that day - and on second viewing, it became clear to me that Monsieur Lecoq was the best horse in the race.
He looked to have the race won, half way up the hill - but then idled and was worried out of it close home.
He’s 1lb worse off with Quoi de Neuf today - but he looks a much tougher horse (his additional jockey claim also means he will actually be carrying 2lb less).
What was putting me off Monsieur Lecoq, was that he ran as recently as last Saturday in the International hurdle.
He finished a perfectly creditable fourth in that race - and ran up the hill like a lion.
I suspect that he could have won - but Lizzy Kelly was keen not to let him hit the front too soon, following the run in the Greatwood.
I think she just overdid the waiting tactics…
Anyway, connections should have learnt plenty about the horse - and I now actually view the fact he is being allowed to run again so quickly, as a positive !
He may be carrying top weight - but that doesn’t mean he is badly handicapped.
Furthermore, it is quite noticeable how well top weights have recently performed in this race (won 2 of the last 3 runnings).
Clearly, Monsieur Lecoq is no certainty - but having considered all of the options (!), he’s the one I most want to be with.
Haydock
2:05
When I first looked at this race, I was hopeful that I would be able to find an angle for supporting Flashjack.
He’s a horse I like - and I tipped him on the opening day of the TVB season, when he finished third at Ayr.
He’s a massive horse, who wants the ground as deep as possible - which I'm sure he will get today !
I doubt he’ll have an issue with the weight he has to carry - but looking at the opposition, I think he might have an issue with at least one of them !
Flashjack is a class 3 horse - at best - but I fear he may have bumped into one who could be a fair bit better than that…
Big Shark is unbeaten in 2 novice hurdles this season - and the form of them looks very strong.
When he won at Worcester back in October, he beat One for the Team, with Go Whatever back in fifth place.
Both of those horses have since come out and run really well in much better races, suggesting that was a particularly strong maiden.
Similarly, Mr Muldoon, who Big Shark beat by 10 lengths at Hereford last time, came out and bolted up at Ascot yesterday.
It’s impossible to assess Big Shark accurately - but it looks at if he could be a 140+ horse.
He runs off 133 today - with Ben Jones taking off a further 5lb.
Suffice to say, if he handles conditions, he’s going to take a world of beating…
2:40
I looked at this race earlier in the week, and was pretty keen on the chances of Daklondike.
I tipped him when he won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and whilst he has to race off a mark 6lb higher today, he’s a relatively young horse, so it’s reasonable to think that he will have made that much improvement during the past 12 months.
He’ll relish the heavy ground - and his stable are in excellent from (better than they were 12 months ago).
However, when the final declarations came through, there were a couple of things that put me off…
Firstly, David Noonan is riding, rather than Tom Scudamore.
Scudamore is first jockey to Davd Pipe and his ridden the horse for all of its wins - however, he has gone to Ascot for one ride (Umbrigado).
Secondly, the horse is wearing no head gear - despite having shown all of his best form in head gear.
If Scudamore was riding, I may have been prepared to overlook that - but two concerns, is one too many !
My feeling now, is that he’s being readied for another day (probably back at Haydock - but from a slightly lower mark).
The trouble is, if I take him out of the race, then I’ve no idea what will win it !
Vintage Cloud could be the one. He’s well enough handicapped - and should have no issue with conditions.
However, he had a bad time at Aintree, on his most recent outing and there must be a chance that will have affected his confidence.
The Hollow Ginge is the safe option - but he’s also the race favourite.
From a betting perspective, Orchardtown Cross makes more appeal.
His latest run at Ascot will need to be ignored - but he was on an upward curve prior to that, so if that it was just a blip, he has a definite chance.
3:15
I tipped Off the Hook at the back end of last season, when she ran in the NH mares final at Newbury - and I want to be with her again today.
She didn’t win that race - but she ran really well and finished an honourable fourth.
I don’t know whether she ran up to expectations of connections - but she was put away for the summer, following that run and didn’t reappear until Ayr, last month.
She only finished sixth in the Ayr race - but she travelled nicely and my feeling was that she would come on significantly for the run.
The handicapper dropped her a pound for the effort, which means that she runs today from a mark 3lb lower than at Newbury (when I thought he could win !).
My feeling is that she is a well handicapped horse - but that’s not the main attraction with her today…
Her best run last season, was when she finished third in the listed mares race, run earlier on todays card.
That race is run over the same course and distance as this one - and was also run on heavy ground.
She was beaten 2 lengths by the 135 rated Queenofhearts - with the now 146 rated Papagana, a length behind.
Off the Hook races today off a mark of 118 - so she not only does she have ideal conditions - she could be thrown in !
The other big attraction with her, is the actual weight that she carries.
In heavy ground, every pound makes a difference. She will be carrying just 10st2lb - that’s 24lb less than top weight, Poetic Rhythm - and there has to be a chance that will count, at the business end of the race…
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 1:50 Garde la Victoire 0.5pt win 14/1
Asc 1:50 First Flow 0.5pt win 3/1 (saver)
Asc 3:00 Jerrysback 1pt win 6/1
Asc 3:35 Monsieur Lecoq 0.5pt win 10/1
Hayd 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Asc 1:15 Paloma Blue (C )
Asc 2:25 Agrapart (w/o Paisley Park)
Hayd 2:05 Big Shark (P )
Hayd 2:40 Orchardstown Cross (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Asc 1:50 Garde la Victoire 0.5pt win 14/1
Asc 1:50 First Flow 0.5pt win 3/1 (saver)
Asc 3:00 Jerrysback 1pt win 6/1
Asc 3:35 Monsieur Lecoq 0.5pt win 10/1
Hayd 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Asc 1:15 Paloma Blue (C )
Asc 2:25 Agrapart (w/o Paisley Park)
Hayd 2:05 Big Shark (P )
Hayd 2:40 Orchardstown Cross (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Monday 16 December 2019
Review of the day
It was always going to be hard to follow yesterday - when I
got the borderline calls right and we twice found ourselves on the right side of
fine lines.
So maybe it wasn’t surprising that things didn’t go so well today (as that’s the nature of the beast !).
I was maybe a touch guilty of being overly aggressive with the tips - but I felt I’d found some horse to go to war with and was therefore inclined to roll the dice.
However, the bravery (win only: relatively big odds) didn’t pay off - and non of the tips came home in front.
I’m not for one minute suggesting that it made any difference - but I couldn’t believe how much slower the ground looked to be riding today (unless that’s how it looks, when you are backing losers !).
So far as I was aware, there had been minimal rain in the past 24 hours - but the races looked real slogs.
One horse that slower ground should have suited, was Eamon an Cnoic.
He was the first tip to run today and not only has he previously won in the soft - he also has plenty of stamina.
Therefore when he came there, seemingly full of running, between the final 2 fences, I thought we were going to start today, as we had ended yesterday.
However, as I said this morning, he’s an enigmatic horse.
He’d also made a few mistakes on the way round - so I wasn’t totally surprised, when he was disinclined to pass a very game mare, up the Cheltenham hill.
I guess we were due one that traded odds on in-running - but lost….
Good Man Pat was the next tip to run - and I was keen on him.
And to be honest, I don’t rally know where it went wrong.
I didn’t see him make any significant mistakes - it just appeared that he wasn’t good enough.
Maybe he struggled in the ground - as it did look pretty gruelling.
Warthog didn’t struggle - and he battled back tenaciously, having been passed on the run in.
As I said this morning, he was my second choice in the race - but I decided to go just with the main fancy.
With hindsight, that was a mistake…
Gumball was the third tip to run - and he wouldn’t have been suited by the relatively soft ground.
Despite that he was still very strong in the market - though that was probably because people woke up to the fact that it was a relatively open race.
Call me Lord was the best horse in the race based on official ratings - and the soft ground played into his hands, big time.
He managed to get the better of Ballyandy (another mud-lark) in a rousing finish - with Gumball a few lengths back in sixth.
It was a fair run - but nothing more than that.
That was also the case with the final tip of the day - Mega Yeats.
She was another one who I was pretty keen on - and her chance was enhanced by the soft ground.
However, whilst she ran OK - she was absolutely no match for Dame de Campagnie or Indefatigable.
The winner looked to have at least a stone in hand - and it will be interesting to see where she ends up.
As for the Mentions:
Then Tremwedge was a non runner in the opener - leaving odds on favourite Botox Has, to win relatively easily (if not overly impressively).
Mister Fisher coped with the ground and was a good winner of the novice chase.
That was a little irritating, as I had it in my mind to tip him, if he reached 3/1.
He did reach that price - but tipping late, at this time of year, is very hard - as it delays my issuing of the write-up.
The first race was off at 12:10 - and I couldn’t have tipped late and got the write-up out an hour before the first race (which is my target).
Maybe I need to look at options there…
The soft ground should also have suited Saint Xavier in the novice hurdle - but it looked as if he did need the race.
He’ll be more fairly judge after his next run.
Over at Doncaster, Sam Spinners hesitant jumping seemed to cause Aye Right to fall - which is an interesting way of dealing with the opposition !
Sam Spinner might have won (again) - but he’s simply never going to reach the top over fences… (famous last words ?!)
Finally Cloth Cap looked set to win the handicap chase - but he was run down in the shadow of the post, by My Old Gold.
I’m sure he will win races this season - but it was a quite a battle, and I hope it doesn’t leave a mark…
Just a quick reminder that I’m taking tomorrow off (there is very little decent racing).
I’ll be back next weekend - and will confirm details of ‘what and when’, at some point during the forthcoming week.
TVB.
So maybe it wasn’t surprising that things didn’t go so well today (as that’s the nature of the beast !).
I was maybe a touch guilty of being overly aggressive with the tips - but I felt I’d found some horse to go to war with and was therefore inclined to roll the dice.
However, the bravery (win only: relatively big odds) didn’t pay off - and non of the tips came home in front.
I’m not for one minute suggesting that it made any difference - but I couldn’t believe how much slower the ground looked to be riding today (unless that’s how it looks, when you are backing losers !).
So far as I was aware, there had been minimal rain in the past 24 hours - but the races looked real slogs.
One horse that slower ground should have suited, was Eamon an Cnoic.
He was the first tip to run today and not only has he previously won in the soft - he also has plenty of stamina.
Therefore when he came there, seemingly full of running, between the final 2 fences, I thought we were going to start today, as we had ended yesterday.
However, as I said this morning, he’s an enigmatic horse.
He’d also made a few mistakes on the way round - so I wasn’t totally surprised, when he was disinclined to pass a very game mare, up the Cheltenham hill.
I guess we were due one that traded odds on in-running - but lost….
Good Man Pat was the next tip to run - and I was keen on him.
And to be honest, I don’t rally know where it went wrong.
I didn’t see him make any significant mistakes - it just appeared that he wasn’t good enough.
Maybe he struggled in the ground - as it did look pretty gruelling.
Warthog didn’t struggle - and he battled back tenaciously, having been passed on the run in.
As I said this morning, he was my second choice in the race - but I decided to go just with the main fancy.
With hindsight, that was a mistake…
Gumball was the third tip to run - and he wouldn’t have been suited by the relatively soft ground.
Despite that he was still very strong in the market - though that was probably because people woke up to the fact that it was a relatively open race.
Call me Lord was the best horse in the race based on official ratings - and the soft ground played into his hands, big time.
He managed to get the better of Ballyandy (another mud-lark) in a rousing finish - with Gumball a few lengths back in sixth.
It was a fair run - but nothing more than that.
That was also the case with the final tip of the day - Mega Yeats.
She was another one who I was pretty keen on - and her chance was enhanced by the soft ground.
However, whilst she ran OK - she was absolutely no match for Dame de Campagnie or Indefatigable.
The winner looked to have at least a stone in hand - and it will be interesting to see where she ends up.
As for the Mentions:
Then Tremwedge was a non runner in the opener - leaving odds on favourite Botox Has, to win relatively easily (if not overly impressively).
Mister Fisher coped with the ground and was a good winner of the novice chase.
That was a little irritating, as I had it in my mind to tip him, if he reached 3/1.
He did reach that price - but tipping late, at this time of year, is very hard - as it delays my issuing of the write-up.
The first race was off at 12:10 - and I couldn’t have tipped late and got the write-up out an hour before the first race (which is my target).
Maybe I need to look at options there…
The soft ground should also have suited Saint Xavier in the novice hurdle - but it looked as if he did need the race.
He’ll be more fairly judge after his next run.
Over at Doncaster, Sam Spinners hesitant jumping seemed to cause Aye Right to fall - which is an interesting way of dealing with the opposition !
Sam Spinner might have won (again) - but he’s simply never going to reach the top over fences… (famous last words ?!)
Finally Cloth Cap looked set to win the handicap chase - but he was run down in the shadow of the post, by My Old Gold.
I’m sure he will win races this season - but it was a quite a battle, and I hope it doesn’t leave a mark…
Just a quick reminder that I’m taking tomorrow off (there is very little decent racing).
I’ll be back next weekend - and will confirm details of ‘what and when’, at some point during the forthcoming week.
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 14th
It’s day 2 of the International meeting at Cheltenham -
whilst there are supporting cards at Doncaster, Hereford and
Fairyhouse.
The going description was changed at Cheltenham yesterday afternoon from ‘good to soft - soft in places’ to ‘soft - good to soft in places’ - yet it actually rode faster than I expected (maybe that’s always the case, when you are picking winners :) )
Certainly, I would consider it no worse than decent winter ground - and with a dry night and just a few minor showers forecast for this morning, then I would expect more of the same, this afternoon.
Once again, they put on a really good card - with plenty of variety and plenty of quality - finding horses to back, wasn’t hard !
That wasn’t the case at the supporting meetings (which may not be a bad thing !).
The fields for the main races at Doncaster, have cut up badly. As a consequence, I’ve swerved them all.
Hereford stage some fair races - but like Doncaster, they have been hit by small fields - it’s also easy enough to give that a miss.
Similarly, there’s nothing of interest at Fairyhouse - though this time the issue is with quality, rather than the number of runners.
As a consequence, the focus is very much on Cheltenham (though I’ve also covered the main races on the Doncaster card)
I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day - and I quite like them !
Here’s the rationale - along with my thoughts on the days other big races.
Cheltenham
12:10
The card starts with a juvenile hurdle, for which Botox Has has been installed a short priced favourite.
He finished second last time, to Allmankind: with yesterdays winner, Repetitio, back in third.
As a result of that, he was given a mark of 132 - which looks about right - and sets a fair level.
The question will be, whether any of todays opponents can surpass that…
In truth, that’s hard to know, because most of them are unexposed, potential improvers (as you would expect, in this kind of race).
Langer Dan, Tremwedge and Group Stage, all have chances - but all looked price about right.
Of the 3, I would be most drawn to Tremwedge.
He’s been sent over from Ireland, by his low-key, but very competent trainer (Ellmarie Holden).
He ran a good third to a couple of decent Joseph O’Brien trained runners last time - and whilst it’s impossible to quantify the form, I suspect either of those horses would be odds on to win this particular race !
The booking of Richard Johnson is eye catching - and if I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with him.
The other one that interests me, in the Mick Easterby trained, Elysian Flame.
He is very useful on the flat - and it’s potentially significant that the ultra shrewd Easterby, has sent him to Cheltenham for his hurdling debut.
It’s a big ask to win a race of this nature on debut - but if he comes in for significant market support, then I suggest taking the hint !
12:45
There are only 7 runners in this - and realistically, only 4 have a chance of winning - but it’s still a fascinating contest…
Good Boy Bobby has been installed favourite, on the back of 2 good runs over fences.
He ran a big race when second on his chasing debut at Carlisle - and was a good winner next time, when heavily odds on at Wetherby.
He’s held in high regard by the Twiston Davies’ - and I’m sure he’ll go close today - but this is a very decent race…
In receipt of 6lb, I think Mister Fisher is the one to beat.
He had some very decent form over hurdles last season - despite not looking the finished article.
He made his chasing debut at Warwick last month - and even on unsuitably soft ground, he still managed to bustle up Torpillo (who was sent off fav for a grade 1 chase, last Saturday).
With that experience under his belt - and on a quicker surface, I think he will be hard to beat today (even though he is unproven over the 2m4f trip).
Champagne Platinum is the third one of particular interest.
Like Mister Fisher, he is trained by Nicky Henderson - though he is a bit harder to get a handle on.
He was well thought of last year - and will be making his chasing debut this afternoon.
He could, as they say, be anything…
Beakstown is the final one to note. He’s already run twice over fences - and placed on both occasions.
I would expect him to run his race again today - and whilst he might again place, I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to win.
Mister Fisher is the one I fancy most - but Champagne Platinum is also quite interesting at a price (around 4/1).
1:20
This is a relatively weak race for a big Saturday handicap at Cheltenham, and I think it’s worth taking a chance on Eamon an Cnoic.
He’s an ‘enigmatic’ character - and based on his last run at Newbury, you wouldn’t go near him - but I’m hoping he’ll put in a much improved display this afternoon !
Certainly, if he can return to the form he showed in the spring, when finishing a close up fourth in the Festival Plate, he’ll have every chance this afternoon.
That was over 2m4f - but he is also effective over 2 miles, as he’d shown on his previous outing, when beating Capeland at Chepstow.
That one is now rated 10lb higher, so to beat him by over 3 lengths, with the third horse a further 5 lengths back, rates as decent form.
Eamon an Cnoic gets to run off a mark just 5lb higher today - and 2lb lower than when he ran at the festival.
Simply, he is a well handicapped horse.
The key is getting him to perform to his best, which is why the fitting of first time blinkers is an interesting move.
The horse is clearly a bit of a thinker - and it strikes me as significant that he put in a much improved performance when cheek pieces were first utilised (he’s worn those on all of his recent runs).
If the blinkers have the desired effect today, then I think he will be hard to beat.
In terms of his opponents, then most of them look beatable.
Destrier sets the standard - but there doesn’t appear to be a lot of margin in a rating of 151 - and it’s a similar story with Ballywood.
If Eamon doesn’t bounces back, then they are likely to dominate - but if he does, they will have their work cut out to beat him.
1:55
I’m pretty keen on Good man Pat in this.
It strikes me that he’s got the perfect profile for the race, as a progressive second season chaser - and granted luck in running, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go very close.
He’s always looked a horse capable of bagging a big handicap - and he was sent off at quite a short price for the Close Brothers handicap on opening day of last seasons festival.
He disappointed in that race - but apparently suffered from sore shins last season, and Alan King is now optimistic that he’s grown out of that condition.
He also disappointed on his final outing of last season - but performed much better of his seasonal debut, at Ascot last month.
That was over 3 miles - and he appeared not to quite stay the trip - but he was still in with every chance, turning for home.
Cut back half a mile in distance today - and with that run under his belt - he should be ready to put in a huge performance.
As you’d expect with a big Saturday handicap, there are plenty of other who can be given a chance.
Warthog is the next one on my list, following his fine third in the Paddy Power Gold cup at the November meeting.
He’s a natural front runner - which his often a good thing in races like this (as you keep out of trouble) - though the presence of Knocknanuss, may mean that he ends up sitting just behind the leader, this afternoon.
I’d give Knocknanuss a chance as well - though making all in a race of this nature- and with unproven stamina - is a big ask.
Not that Fuisse is another that interests me. There is a fair amount of speculation involved with him - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him putting in a career best today, and he may be worth a small (unofficial) saver.
The final one worthy of mention, is Clondaw Castle.
He was an eye catcher last time - and does have a chance this afternoon.
That said, I would prefer to see him running over 2 miles, as I’m not completely convinced about his stamina for the extra 4 furlongs.
2:30
This isn’t a race which I have a strong view on - in truth, I’d be surprised if it’s a race which many people have a strong view on !
Champagne Well heads the market - and is the easiest runner to get a handle on.
His form is decent - but I’d be a little disappointed if there wasn’t something in the race, better than him.
Which one it might be, however, is anybodys guess !
My guess would be Kiltealy Briggs - but it is a guess - and based on very little evidence (as very little evidence exists !).
That said, the one that potentially interests me most, is Saint Xavier.
He has his first run for owner David Maxwell, having been bought from France.
He was pretty useful over there - finishing fourth in a grade 1 chase.
The word is that he will need the run - and wants soft ground.
Ofcourse that may well be true - but if he comes in for significant market support, I suggest taking the hint - because he probably has the form to win this…
3:05
This race looks a fair bit more open than the early market suggested - and I think it is worth taking a small chance on Gumball, at a big price.
Having shown a good level of ability as a juvenile, he disappointed last season.
That’s not unusual for young horses, who find the step up to open company a bit too much.
However, he recaptured his form on the flat in the spring - and has looked a much improved horse, since returning to hurdles at Market Rasen in September.
He only finished third that day - but followed up that run by winning at Ascot and running an honourable second in the Greatwood hurdle at the November meeting.
That was a particularly big effort - and showed him tactically versatile, as he slotted in behind the leaders (he had previously always front run).
His mark was raised to 152 for that run - which puts him right in the mix for todays race.
Call me Lord is the highest rated runner in todays field (on 160) - and in receipt of weight from most of his rivals, he is the one to beat.
However, he would prefer softer ground and a longer trip - and there are doubts about him running left handed.
He would be hard to support at a short price.
After him, Ch’tibello is the next highest rated - on 157.
he has been targeted at the race - and I would expect him to go very well - but the fact is, he’s only rated 5lb superior to Gumball.
More than that, Gumball is on an upward curve and at the peak of his game.
In truth, most of the runners can be given a chance of sorts - but equally, a rock solid case can be made for non of them.
Gumball definitely has a chance - and I suspect his chance is a fair bit better than that suggested by the 20/1, which was on offer early…
3:40
This appears to be a very open race, but I think it will take a good one to beat Mega Yates…
She caught my eye on her seasonal debut at Haydock, in a particularly strong handicap (won by Stoney Mountain).
She raced in the front rank that day - and was one of 3 horses who kicked for home, rounding the final bend.
Her effort didn’t last long - but she probably needed the run - and she may not have stayed the 3 mile trip.
She is cut back half a mile today - and with the outing under her belt, I would expect her to run very well.
That’s certainly been the case with most of Ruth Jeffersons horses this year - with the majority showing significant improvement on their second run.
Quite pleasingly, the handicapper didn’t see it the same way - as he dropped her mark by 3lbs…
Her form from last season, suggests that she is now quite well handicapped - and that’s ignoring the potential improvement (I suspect she could rate a fair bit higher).
All this said, this is a hot race.
Dame de Compagnie heads the market - and that’s justified, based both on her form from last season and her run in the Greatwood (she finished fifth).
Lust for Glory, Indefatigable and Queens Cave, are 3 more who should run very well: whilst there are also 2 or 3 potentially lively outsiders (Vision du Puy and Midnightreferendum, amongst them).
However, non of them appeal more than Mega Yates - and she’s another who I expect to run a really big race.
Doncaster
2:10
There is a disappointing turn out for all of the Doncaster races which are on terrestrial TV - and just 3 go to post for this…
That said, there are 3 very useful animals - so provided they all get round (never guaranteed in a novice chase !), it could still be a good race.
Sam Spinner and Windsor Avenue, dominate the market.
The former was a top class hurdler (second in last season world hurdle); whilst the latter has been really impressive in winning his 2 novice chases this season.
I wouldn’t want to support Sam Spinner in a small field, as he lacks tactical pace (if that’s how the race works out).
I guess that means I think Windsor Avenue is the most likely winner - and I do.
However, I wouldn’t back at odds on in a 3 runner chase - so if I was to get involved, it would be with the outsider, Aye Right.
He definitely has a chance - even ignoring the ‘luck’ element (which could make the race a lottery).
At 10/1, he could be worth a small play - if you need to get involved !
2:45
I’ve little idea what will win this.
The market is keen on French import, Tombee du Ciel, who makes his debut for Nicky Henderson.
He has decent form in France - and could easily outclass his rivals.
Certainly non of the others particularly grab me - but I won’t be backing him at odds of 6/4.
Just a watching race, for me…
3:20
This is also likely to be a watching race - but I’ll be a bit more interested in watching Cloth Cap…
He was an eye catcher on his first run of the season - and ran really well, next time at Ascot (on unsuitably soft ground)
The ground is soft again today - but this is a much weaker race (despite a value of £25K !).
Certainly, I couldn’t back any of his rivals to beat him - but equally, I couldn’t back him, at a shade of odds on.
The going description was changed at Cheltenham yesterday afternoon from ‘good to soft - soft in places’ to ‘soft - good to soft in places’ - yet it actually rode faster than I expected (maybe that’s always the case, when you are picking winners :) )
Certainly, I would consider it no worse than decent winter ground - and with a dry night and just a few minor showers forecast for this morning, then I would expect more of the same, this afternoon.
Once again, they put on a really good card - with plenty of variety and plenty of quality - finding horses to back, wasn’t hard !
That wasn’t the case at the supporting meetings (which may not be a bad thing !).
The fields for the main races at Doncaster, have cut up badly. As a consequence, I’ve swerved them all.
Hereford stage some fair races - but like Doncaster, they have been hit by small fields - it’s also easy enough to give that a miss.
Similarly, there’s nothing of interest at Fairyhouse - though this time the issue is with quality, rather than the number of runners.
As a consequence, the focus is very much on Cheltenham (though I’ve also covered the main races on the Doncaster card)
I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day - and I quite like them !
Here’s the rationale - along with my thoughts on the days other big races.
Cheltenham
12:10
The card starts with a juvenile hurdle, for which Botox Has has been installed a short priced favourite.
He finished second last time, to Allmankind: with yesterdays winner, Repetitio, back in third.
As a result of that, he was given a mark of 132 - which looks about right - and sets a fair level.
The question will be, whether any of todays opponents can surpass that…
In truth, that’s hard to know, because most of them are unexposed, potential improvers (as you would expect, in this kind of race).
Langer Dan, Tremwedge and Group Stage, all have chances - but all looked price about right.
Of the 3, I would be most drawn to Tremwedge.
He’s been sent over from Ireland, by his low-key, but very competent trainer (Ellmarie Holden).
He ran a good third to a couple of decent Joseph O’Brien trained runners last time - and whilst it’s impossible to quantify the form, I suspect either of those horses would be odds on to win this particular race !
The booking of Richard Johnson is eye catching - and if I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with him.
The other one that interests me, in the Mick Easterby trained, Elysian Flame.
He is very useful on the flat - and it’s potentially significant that the ultra shrewd Easterby, has sent him to Cheltenham for his hurdling debut.
It’s a big ask to win a race of this nature on debut - but if he comes in for significant market support, then I suggest taking the hint !
12:45
There are only 7 runners in this - and realistically, only 4 have a chance of winning - but it’s still a fascinating contest…
Good Boy Bobby has been installed favourite, on the back of 2 good runs over fences.
He ran a big race when second on his chasing debut at Carlisle - and was a good winner next time, when heavily odds on at Wetherby.
He’s held in high regard by the Twiston Davies’ - and I’m sure he’ll go close today - but this is a very decent race…
In receipt of 6lb, I think Mister Fisher is the one to beat.
He had some very decent form over hurdles last season - despite not looking the finished article.
He made his chasing debut at Warwick last month - and even on unsuitably soft ground, he still managed to bustle up Torpillo (who was sent off fav for a grade 1 chase, last Saturday).
With that experience under his belt - and on a quicker surface, I think he will be hard to beat today (even though he is unproven over the 2m4f trip).
Champagne Platinum is the third one of particular interest.
Like Mister Fisher, he is trained by Nicky Henderson - though he is a bit harder to get a handle on.
He was well thought of last year - and will be making his chasing debut this afternoon.
He could, as they say, be anything…
Beakstown is the final one to note. He’s already run twice over fences - and placed on both occasions.
I would expect him to run his race again today - and whilst he might again place, I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to win.
Mister Fisher is the one I fancy most - but Champagne Platinum is also quite interesting at a price (around 4/1).
1:20
This is a relatively weak race for a big Saturday handicap at Cheltenham, and I think it’s worth taking a chance on Eamon an Cnoic.
He’s an ‘enigmatic’ character - and based on his last run at Newbury, you wouldn’t go near him - but I’m hoping he’ll put in a much improved display this afternoon !
Certainly, if he can return to the form he showed in the spring, when finishing a close up fourth in the Festival Plate, he’ll have every chance this afternoon.
That was over 2m4f - but he is also effective over 2 miles, as he’d shown on his previous outing, when beating Capeland at Chepstow.
That one is now rated 10lb higher, so to beat him by over 3 lengths, with the third horse a further 5 lengths back, rates as decent form.
Eamon an Cnoic gets to run off a mark just 5lb higher today - and 2lb lower than when he ran at the festival.
Simply, he is a well handicapped horse.
The key is getting him to perform to his best, which is why the fitting of first time blinkers is an interesting move.
The horse is clearly a bit of a thinker - and it strikes me as significant that he put in a much improved performance when cheek pieces were first utilised (he’s worn those on all of his recent runs).
If the blinkers have the desired effect today, then I think he will be hard to beat.
In terms of his opponents, then most of them look beatable.
Destrier sets the standard - but there doesn’t appear to be a lot of margin in a rating of 151 - and it’s a similar story with Ballywood.
If Eamon doesn’t bounces back, then they are likely to dominate - but if he does, they will have their work cut out to beat him.
1:55
I’m pretty keen on Good man Pat in this.
It strikes me that he’s got the perfect profile for the race, as a progressive second season chaser - and granted luck in running, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go very close.
He’s always looked a horse capable of bagging a big handicap - and he was sent off at quite a short price for the Close Brothers handicap on opening day of last seasons festival.
He disappointed in that race - but apparently suffered from sore shins last season, and Alan King is now optimistic that he’s grown out of that condition.
He also disappointed on his final outing of last season - but performed much better of his seasonal debut, at Ascot last month.
That was over 3 miles - and he appeared not to quite stay the trip - but he was still in with every chance, turning for home.
Cut back half a mile in distance today - and with that run under his belt - he should be ready to put in a huge performance.
As you’d expect with a big Saturday handicap, there are plenty of other who can be given a chance.
Warthog is the next one on my list, following his fine third in the Paddy Power Gold cup at the November meeting.
He’s a natural front runner - which his often a good thing in races like this (as you keep out of trouble) - though the presence of Knocknanuss, may mean that he ends up sitting just behind the leader, this afternoon.
I’d give Knocknanuss a chance as well - though making all in a race of this nature- and with unproven stamina - is a big ask.
Not that Fuisse is another that interests me. There is a fair amount of speculation involved with him - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him putting in a career best today, and he may be worth a small (unofficial) saver.
The final one worthy of mention, is Clondaw Castle.
He was an eye catcher last time - and does have a chance this afternoon.
That said, I would prefer to see him running over 2 miles, as I’m not completely convinced about his stamina for the extra 4 furlongs.
2:30
This isn’t a race which I have a strong view on - in truth, I’d be surprised if it’s a race which many people have a strong view on !
Champagne Well heads the market - and is the easiest runner to get a handle on.
His form is decent - but I’d be a little disappointed if there wasn’t something in the race, better than him.
Which one it might be, however, is anybodys guess !
My guess would be Kiltealy Briggs - but it is a guess - and based on very little evidence (as very little evidence exists !).
That said, the one that potentially interests me most, is Saint Xavier.
He has his first run for owner David Maxwell, having been bought from France.
He was pretty useful over there - finishing fourth in a grade 1 chase.
The word is that he will need the run - and wants soft ground.
Ofcourse that may well be true - but if he comes in for significant market support, I suggest taking the hint - because he probably has the form to win this…
3:05
This race looks a fair bit more open than the early market suggested - and I think it is worth taking a small chance on Gumball, at a big price.
Having shown a good level of ability as a juvenile, he disappointed last season.
That’s not unusual for young horses, who find the step up to open company a bit too much.
However, he recaptured his form on the flat in the spring - and has looked a much improved horse, since returning to hurdles at Market Rasen in September.
He only finished third that day - but followed up that run by winning at Ascot and running an honourable second in the Greatwood hurdle at the November meeting.
That was a particularly big effort - and showed him tactically versatile, as he slotted in behind the leaders (he had previously always front run).
His mark was raised to 152 for that run - which puts him right in the mix for todays race.
Call me Lord is the highest rated runner in todays field (on 160) - and in receipt of weight from most of his rivals, he is the one to beat.
However, he would prefer softer ground and a longer trip - and there are doubts about him running left handed.
He would be hard to support at a short price.
After him, Ch’tibello is the next highest rated - on 157.
he has been targeted at the race - and I would expect him to go very well - but the fact is, he’s only rated 5lb superior to Gumball.
More than that, Gumball is on an upward curve and at the peak of his game.
In truth, most of the runners can be given a chance of sorts - but equally, a rock solid case can be made for non of them.
Gumball definitely has a chance - and I suspect his chance is a fair bit better than that suggested by the 20/1, which was on offer early…
3:40
This appears to be a very open race, but I think it will take a good one to beat Mega Yates…
She caught my eye on her seasonal debut at Haydock, in a particularly strong handicap (won by Stoney Mountain).
She raced in the front rank that day - and was one of 3 horses who kicked for home, rounding the final bend.
Her effort didn’t last long - but she probably needed the run - and she may not have stayed the 3 mile trip.
She is cut back half a mile today - and with the outing under her belt, I would expect her to run very well.
That’s certainly been the case with most of Ruth Jeffersons horses this year - with the majority showing significant improvement on their second run.
Quite pleasingly, the handicapper didn’t see it the same way - as he dropped her mark by 3lbs…
Her form from last season, suggests that she is now quite well handicapped - and that’s ignoring the potential improvement (I suspect she could rate a fair bit higher).
All this said, this is a hot race.
Dame de Compagnie heads the market - and that’s justified, based both on her form from last season and her run in the Greatwood (she finished fifth).
Lust for Glory, Indefatigable and Queens Cave, are 3 more who should run very well: whilst there are also 2 or 3 potentially lively outsiders (Vision du Puy and Midnightreferendum, amongst them).
However, non of them appeal more than Mega Yates - and she’s another who I expect to run a really big race.
Doncaster
2:10
There is a disappointing turn out for all of the Doncaster races which are on terrestrial TV - and just 3 go to post for this…
That said, there are 3 very useful animals - so provided they all get round (never guaranteed in a novice chase !), it could still be a good race.
Sam Spinner and Windsor Avenue, dominate the market.
The former was a top class hurdler (second in last season world hurdle); whilst the latter has been really impressive in winning his 2 novice chases this season.
I wouldn’t want to support Sam Spinner in a small field, as he lacks tactical pace (if that’s how the race works out).
I guess that means I think Windsor Avenue is the most likely winner - and I do.
However, I wouldn’t back at odds on in a 3 runner chase - so if I was to get involved, it would be with the outsider, Aye Right.
He definitely has a chance - even ignoring the ‘luck’ element (which could make the race a lottery).
At 10/1, he could be worth a small play - if you need to get involved !
2:45
I’ve little idea what will win this.
The market is keen on French import, Tombee du Ciel, who makes his debut for Nicky Henderson.
He has decent form in France - and could easily outclass his rivals.
Certainly non of the others particularly grab me - but I won’t be backing him at odds of 6/4.
Just a watching race, for me…
3:20
This is also likely to be a watching race - but I’ll be a bit more interested in watching Cloth Cap…
He was an eye catcher on his first run of the season - and ran really well, next time at Ascot (on unsuitably soft ground)
The ground is soft again today - but this is a much weaker race (despite a value of £25K !).
Certainly, I couldn’t back any of his rivals to beat him - but equally, I couldn’t back him, at a shade of odds on.
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:20 Eamon an Cnoic 0.5pt win 8/1
Chel 1:55 Good man Pat 1pt win 7/1
Chel 3:05 Gumball 0.5pt win 22/1
Chel 3:40 Mega Yates 1pt win 9/1
Mentions
Chel 12:10 Tremwedge (S )
Chel 12:45 Mister Fisher (P )
Chel 2:30 Saint Xavier (C )
Donc 2:10 Aye Right (S )
Donc 3:20 Cloth Cap (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:20 Eamon an Cnoic 0.5pt win 8/1
Chel 1:55 Good man Pat 1pt win 7/1
Chel 3:05 Gumball 0.5pt win 22/1
Chel 3:40 Mega Yates 1pt win 9/1
Mentions
Chel 12:10 Tremwedge (S )
Chel 12:45 Mister Fisher (P )
Chel 2:30 Saint Xavier (C )
Donc 2:10 Aye Right (S )
Donc 3:20 Cloth Cap (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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