Daily write-up - Dec 8th

Assuming the weather doesn’t intervene, there will be 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Huntingdon and Kelso in the UK: plus Punchestown and Cork, in Ireland.

When I had an early look at the cards, in the middle of last week, I was optimistic that there would be a few opportunities today - but unfortunately that’s not how it’s panned out.

There are open graded races at Huntingdon, Punchestown and Cork - but fields for the feature events at Huntingdon and Cork have cut up quite badly; and whilst nine go to post for the grade 1 John Durkan chase at Punchestown, 4 of them are trained by Willie Mullins, including the hot favourite Min.
In short, non the of days 3 big races, lend themselves to tipping/betting.

More than that, the undercards at all 3 meetings don’t contain any suitable races for tipping.

As a consequence, the most likely source of tips, was Kelso.
There are 2 possible races there, in the shape of the Borders National - and one of my beloved veterans chases !
I was half tempted by both - but don’t quite feel strongly enough about anything, to get involved (officially speaking).

It is therefore a ‘no tips’ day - though I do have views on all of the days main races - and therefore a few Mentions (a couple of which, are quite creative !), which you may - or may not - choose to get involved with…


Kelso

1:15

Sandy Thompson has won the last 4 runnings of this race - and his Laventatra has been installed the race favourite.
Unlike Thompsons previous winners of the race, Laventara is a 7 year old, on his way up through the ranks - and he certainly has a chance of completing the trainers nap hand.
The trouble is, this is a very open race - and it’s hard to find a path into it.
In these valuable, lower grade events. It’s not uncommon for a horse to have been ‘plotted up’: though trying to spot them - and then get on them, is a different matter !
Very few of the runners can be safely eliminated from calculations - though I’m sure that by the off, the market will be giving plenty of clues !
Without that knowledge, I’ll offer 3 for serious consideration: Big River; Weststreet and Achill Road Boy.
I tipped Big River last time he ran, in a much better race than this, at Cheltenham.
I was pretty keen on him too - but he ran very poorly.
I’ve no idea why: it could have been a physical issue (he’s had a few) - or it could have been something else.
Clearly, that run has to be ignored if you are going to support him today - but cheekpieces have been applied for the first time (which I think is a good move) - and simply, he could outclass todays rivals.
I’ve managed to back him at 10 on the exchanges - and he’s worth a risk at that price.
Weststreet and Achill Road Boy don’t have Big Rivers class.
They are just decent low grade stayers, who looked like they have been targeted at this race.
Weststreet has been sent up from Lambourn by Oliver Sherwood - and has a decent 5lb claimer on board.
I would expect him to run a fair race.
The chance of Achill Road Boy isn’t quite as obvious - but I like him a touch more.
He’s had 2 runs over hurdles to get him fit - and hails from the stable of Stuart Coltherd, which is currently in very good form.
At around 16/1, he is definitely worth a small risk.

2:15

Of all the races being run today, this was the one where I felt I was most likely to find a tip.
I therefore spent quite a lot of time, turning it round, but just couldn’t get the winner to drop out !
The problem is, I fancy one of the runners quite a bit more than the rest - but I can see 3 issues for him (which is at least 2 more than I’d like !).
Unlike the rest of the field, Claud and Goldie is a potentially progressive chaser.
He’s only run 6 times under rules - and has shown improved form, every time he’s run.
That’s a very unusual profile for a horse running in a veterans chase - as generally, they are horses on the downgrade, whose best days are almost certainly behind them.
The form of Claud and Goldies 2 most recent runs, stand up to close scrutiny - and i really could fancy him - if it weren’t for a few little issue..!
Firstly, he is unproven on heavy ground (which is what he will encounter today).
He’s not certain to have an issue with it - but he’s not certain to appreciate it, either.
Secondly, he improved last season, as he was stepped up in trip.
His best from was over 3 miles - and he was staying on, over that trip.
He could therefore be outpaced over todays trip of 2m6f.
Thirdly, he’s not had a run this season - and he comes from a relatively small yard.
He showed little on his seasonal debut last season - so there must be a chance, he will need the outing…
You can argue it all ways: if he does handle the heavy ground, that could well see him stamina come into play.
However, heavy ground when you are not 100% fit, is unlikely to end well !
Again, the market will likely advise on his readiness and ability to handle underfoot conditions - but without that knowledge, I can only make him a Mention.

Huntingdon

2:00

There are 6 runners in this race - but on known form, only 3 of them should count.
In fact, with Le Bague au Roi rated 18lb inferior to Aso - but receiving just 6, it can be argued that only 2 should count !
More than that, Le Bague is unlikely to appreciate the relatively quick Huntingdon ground - and despite the fact I’m a big fan of the horse, I would be quite happy to take her on today.
The trouble is, there are only 2 you can realistically take her on with - and they are priced up at 2/1 and 5/2…
Choosing between Top Notch and Aso, isn’t easy.
The official handicapper makes Aso the better, by 7lb. However, that may be flattering - and he’s not likely to be quite as well suited to today test, as Top Notch is.
In truth, if you could define the perfect race for Top Notch, then this would be it.
2 miles 4 furlongs, on decent ground, round a sharp right handed track.
The horse isn’t quite a grade 1 animal over fences - but he’s right at the top end of the grade 2 spectrum - and given ideal conditions, he will always take some beating.
In fairness, conditions should be too big an issue for Aso - the only proviso being that he would prefer softer ground.
It’s hard to spit the pair - and in all likelihood, race pace or a mistake, will be the difference.
I’d slightly favour Top Notch - but so too would be betting, so there is no angle there.
Where there may be an angle, is in a reverse forecast.
I reckon you should get around 5/2 about them finishing first and second, in either order - and that is certainly worth considering.


Punchestown

1:50

If Min is fully tuned up for this, I really can’t see him getting beaten.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and in near ideal conditions, he should really repeat the dose this afternoon.
The slight doubt, is whether he will be fully tuned - but even if he’s just 90% ready, he’s likely to be too good for his rivals.
On official ratings, Presenting Percy is the one most likely to chase him home - but I’ll be surprised if this isn’t just a pipe opener for him.
The distance is his minimum - and the race is probably being used to put an edge on him for a run in the Savills Chase, over the Christmas period.
That’s also likely to be the case with Anibale Fly - which means realistic opponents for Min are a bit thin of the ground !
Shattered Love finished second to him in last years renewal of the race - and on heavy ground, she would definitely have a chance.
However, the ground isn’t heavy, so she is likely to be outpaced.
Willie Mullins saddles 3 in addition to Min - and it’s possible to make a tentative case for each of them.
They are all relatively young and unexposed - so a big step up on form isn’t impossible.
However, a big step up in form would be required to trouble Min.
All this said, the one I think most likely to chase home Min today, is Snow Falcon.
He’s not go the class to beat the favourite - but he will get ideal conditions - and should be fighting fit.
He can be backed at 12/1 in the ‘w/o Min’ market - and that definitely makes some appeal.

Cork

2:35

The feature race on the card effectively looks a match between Ballyoisin and Cilaos Emery.
I was quite keen on Ballyoisin when he won last time at Navan - and he’s more than capable of following up this afternoon.
That said, he faces a potentially high class opponent in the shape of Cilaos Emery.
The latter hasn’t seen much action for the past 2 seasons - but he was top class over hurdles, and his recent win at Naas, suggested he might be even better over fences.
He’ll probably need to be, if he’s going to beat Ballyoisin this afternoon - as he sets a very high standard.
I suspect this race will boil down to jumping.
Ballyoisin is an exceptional fencer - and it’s likely to be a real challenge for the relatively inexperienced Cilaos Emery to live with him over the fences.
If he can, then Cilaos Emery may be able to pounce after the last - but I have a feeling that Ballyoisins jumping may have broken him by that point.
It should be a fascinating watch - but it’s not a betting race.


Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.




Mentions

Kels 1:15 Big River (S ) & Achill Road Boy (O )
Kels 2:15 Claud and Goldie (C )
Hunt 2:00 Top Notch & Aso (R/F)
Punch 1:50 Snow Falcon (w/o Min)
Cord 2:35 Ballyoisin (P )The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions