Daily write-up - Dec 26th

Even with the abandonment of Huntingdon, there are still 9 NH meetings taking place today, across the length and breadth of the British Isles.
It’s fair to say, it’s a busy old day !

And with so much racing taking place, there is always a danger that I will spread myself too thinly, trying to cover everything…

In fairness, all 9 of the meetings have at least a couple of interesting races - and given time, I’m sure I could have found a tip or two at each of them.
However, I’ve not got that time - and I very much doubt that many of you would have been able to get on anything that I did tip, away from the main meetings !

Therefore, I focused on the days 3 biggest meetings: Kempton, Wetherby and Leopardstown.

Kempton hosts the days feature race - a fascinating running of the King George VI chase. It is supported by a couple of other grade 1 races: the Kauto Star novice chase and the Christmas hurdle.

Leopardstown also host a grade 1 race: the Racing Post novice chase; and whilst Wetherby can’t quite match that, their feature, the grade 3 Rowland Meyrick chase, has drawn a good class field.

Safe to say, there is no shortage of quality action !

That said, with more uncertainty over the weather - and consequently, ground conditions - I’ve not gone mad with the tips.

I’ve ended up with just 3 on the day - all at Kempton.

Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other big races at the main meetings.


Kempton

1:20

Mick Channon has a habit of running his best novice chaser in this particular race.
In 2017 it was subsequent Cheltenham festival winner, Mister Whitaker; whilst last year, it was Glen Forsa.
This year he relies on Hold the Note - and I think we should take the hint…
Unlike the other 2 (who were both 6), Hold the Note is just 5 years old and has only run 6 times under rules.
That said, he has shown decent form: in bumpers, over hurdles - and most recently on his chasing debut over fences.
That was in a fair novice chase at Ludlow, where, despite only being the 4th best horse in the race on official ratings, Hold the Note was sent off a very strong 13/8 fav.
He ran well, too - only weakening out of things, after jumping the second last.
The suggestion was that he would come on for the run (his first in 9 months) - and if that is the case, he should go well, based purely on the from.
That said, the case for him is based as much around what was expected, as opposed to what was actually achieved.
The bare form of an 8 length defeat by the 140 rated Western Ryder, gives him a chance today - but the fact he was well backed to beat that horse at level weights, suggests he could be a fair bit better than his current mark.
That, coupled with Channon’s excellent record in the race - make me feel that he is worthy of support…
In fairness, this could be a race full of potential improvers.
It’s understandable that Roll Again is a short priced fav, as he is 6lb ‘well in’ following his impressive win at Ludlow.
Whilst, the fact he is trained by Venetia, simply adds to his case.
Others who could also be involved, include Doctor Dex and Commanche Red: whilst at a big price, I would keep an eye on Muratello, who could be a fair bit better than his form so far, suggests…

1:55

I was hoping to tip Black Op in this - but he has been well backed this morning.
He was an easy 3/1 shot, when the declarations were released - and I was hoping he might even drift to 7/2 - but alas, that didn’t happen !
Instead he has shortened to 5/2 - and I think that’s about the right price.
Whilst he lacks the potential of some of his rivals, I think he has the best form in the race - both over hurdles and over fences.
He should also appreciate any rain - and whilst there is a question mark over his ability to stay 3 miles, I don’t think that will be an issue.
There is also a slight question mark over his effectiveness right handed - but again, I think he will cope.
Of more concern, is the possibility that he might get harried for the lead.
He has run really will in his 2 chase starts this season - but on both occasions, he’s had an uncontested lead.
Master Tommytucker also likes to front run, so a lot will depend on how that potential battle works itself out.
If Master Tommytucker got the run of the race, then he would rate a big danger.
As too could his stablemate, Danny Whizzbang - though he really wants soft ground (which he may well get).
Slate House and Jarveys Plate are the other 2 who warrant consideration: with preference being for the former (as I’m not entirely convinced that Kempton will suit Jarveys Plate).
In short, it’s a race where 5 can be given a chance - and whilst I make Black Op the most likely winner, much will depend on ground conditions and how the race pans out.
At a price, I would be prepared to take a risk on Black Op - but I don’t see any margin in odds of 5/2.

2:30

I think that the Christmas hurdle is a fair but more open that the betting suggests.
Fusil Raffles has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst it’s hard to crab an unbeaten horse, he’s going to need to show significant improvement on his last time out defeat of the 152 rated Grand Sancey, when in receipt of 3lb.
I suspect he will show significant improvement - but it’s not guaranteed in the way the market suggests !
Second fav, Epatante, is another who will need to post a personal best, if she is to win.
She was successful last time, in a handicap, of a mark of just 137.
She has been raised to 150 on the back of that - but we don’t even know if the rise was justified, never mind whether she can be competitive at the highest level…
In fairness, this isn’t the strongest grade 1 ever run - which is part of the reason why Fusil Raffles and Epatante are so short.
Their form is comparable with that of most of their rivals - but they also have potential, which many of the others don’t.
If the ground was riding quick, then Verdana Blue would probably be the race favourite: but she has a marked preference for decent ground: whilst to a slightly less extent, the same is true of Silver Streak…
Ch’tibello is arguably the most solid option in the race - and I would expect him to be placed.
However, he has limitations - and shouldn’t really be able to win a race of this nature…
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a small risk on Elixir de Nutz.
He was a top class novice last season - and when he won the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle, he beat Grand Sancey by roughly the same distance as Fusil Raffles did.
On the back of that, he was one of the market leaders for the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival - but he picked up an injury and missed that race.
In fact, he wasn’t seen on the track again, until 2 weeks ago, when he ran in the Grade 2 International hurdle at Cheltenham.
He ultimately finished well behind Ballyandy and Ch’tibello that day - but he raced with relish and the run was almost certainly badly needed.
He will need to have come on massively for that run - but I suspect he will have done just that.
Ideally I would have liked a couple more weeks for him - but opportunities at this level, are limited.
Ultimately, we know he has form that would put him right in the mix today - and that he still has scope for improvement.
If he is anywhere near his peak, then I suspect he can go close, in what looks a very winnable race.
The other one worthy of a quick mention, is Aussie raider Big Blue.
I can’t make him an official tip - but in such an open race, he is definitely worth a couple of quid, at a triple figure price !

3:05

There may only be 5 runners in the feature race of the Christmas period - but it should still be a thriller !
It sees 2 potential superstars going head-to-head - with the winner likely to be acclaimed ‘the best NH horse in training’ !
The 2 horses in question are Cyrname and Lostintranslation.
The former has made his name with 3 breath-taking displays of front running at Ascot - lowering the colours of the mighty Altior on the most recent occasion.
Whilst the latter, has also recorded 3 hugely impressive wins from his 3 most recent outings - jumping like a buck each time and showing himself effective in a variety of conditions.
It really will be fascinating to see which one comes out on top: with Cyrname likely to lead from the off - and Lostintranslation looking to pounce up the home straight.
My feeling is that Lostintranslation will come out best - but it’s hardly one that you could feel confident about.
Furthermore, there is also last seasons winner, Clan des Obeaux, to consider.
Cyrname should ensure that he gets the race run exactly as he would want - and he certainly has sufficient class to prevent this from being a two horse race.
Whatever the result, it should be a real treat to witness !

3:40

This looks quite an open race and I think it is worth taking a chance on Colonel Custard…
He’s a relatively unexposed second season novice, with only 7 runs over hurdles.
He was quite highly tried last season when he twice ran in graded company (from just 5 outings).
On his 2 outings this season, he has run in handicaps - being placed on each occasion.
Both times, he was sent off favourite - but both times, he was arguably unlucky to bump into a seriously progressive horse.
On the first occasion at Ffos Las, it was Monsieur Lecoq; whilst on his most recent run at Plumpton, it was Song for Someone.
Both of those horses are now rated nearly a stone higher than they were when they beat Colonel Custard - and have shown themselves competitive off their new ratings.
The rating of Colonel Custard on the other hand, remains unchanged...
Ofcourse there is a chance that he will bump into another seriously progressive horse this afternoon - though most of his rivals look quite exposed.
The exceptions are Laskadine and Our Power.
However, both are risky propositions - and I would expect the market to advise on their chances.
Mr Pumblechook is an understandable favourite - though I’m not sure he would want very soft ground.


Wetherby

2:10

I did intend to take a risk on Didero Vallis in this - but the price went before I could tip it…
It was a 10/1 shot yesterday - and I would have been prepared to take a chance at those odds. However, I suspect it was tipped early this morning - and was 6/1 at 9:00.
The horse is trained by Venetia - who is currently operating at a 50% strike rate.
In the circumstances, it’s not too surprising that people are prepared to take a risk on one of hers at a double figure price !
In terms of form - then the horse also has a chance.
I tipped it last time, when it ran a fair race at Aintree - and off a 2lb lower mark today, with a 7lb claimer on board, it is potentially well handicapped.
The big concern is the distance.
The horse has finished well beaten every time it has tackled todays trip of 3 miles.
I guess it’s stamina might improve with age (it’s only 6) - but it is a big question mark.
Aside from Didero, then Top Ville Ben and Bennys King look the 2 most interesting runners - but they are also first and second fav.
The former has an excellent record at the track - and ran really well last time, at Newcastle: Whilst the latter hacked up on his most recent outing at Newbury - and could well be capable of defying a rise in the handicap.


Leopardstown

1:10

The first of 2 graded events on the card - this is a 3 year old hurdle, so there isn’t too much form to work with…
What form there is, suggests that A Wave of the Sea, is the one to beat.
He’s already run 4 times over hurdles - and is yet to finish out of the first 2.
He’s also demonstrated a good level of form - and there is no reason to think that he won’t run his race again this afternoon.
The question is whether anything will be able to improve past him…
Aspire Tower is the obvious one.
He was really impressive when winning his sole hurdle race at Punchestown - and the form of that win, already puts him close to A Wave of the Sea.
As he should have much more improvement in him, it’s not surprising that he has been installed a short priced favourite.
I did spend a little time trying to see if I could find one to beat them both - but I didn’t come up with anything that I was totally happy with.
Clemencia is a possible. He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Cork - though it’s debatable what he beat that day.
The other one is Sacchoandvanzeti.
He’s already had 3 runs over hurdles - but seems to be improving.
His form doesn’t match that of the market principals - but he could be capable of running in to the frame, at a fair price…

2:20

The second graded race on the card, sees a clash between Laurina and Fakir D’oudaries.
The pair currently head the market for the Arkle - so whichever one wins today, is likely to become quite short priced favourite for that race.
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of Fakir Doudaries.
The horse is only 4 - but he jumps like a buck. Without wishing to tempt fate, you will rarely see a better jumping novice.
And it is his jumping prowess, which is encouraging people to think that he should be running over 2 miles.
Quick, accurate jumping over the minimum trip, is a often deadly - so I can see the argument.
However, I just don’t think that he’s a 2 miler.
He was exposed as a notch below the top class at 2 miles over hurdles - and I fear it will be the same over fences.
Certainly, if Laurina can live with his jumping, then I would expect her to have too much speed for him on the run in.
In truth, this isn’t even simply a 2 horse race: the other 3 runners can all be given some kind of chance - and a lot will depend on jumping and the race pace.
I’ll be very surprised if Fakir doesn’t run his race - and I would certainly expect him to finish in the first two.
However, I will be far less surprised if he finds one of his rivals too quick: Probably Laurina - but not definitely !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Kemp 1:20 Hold the Note 1pt win 11/2
Kemp 2:30 Elixir de Nutz 0.5pt win 16/1
Kemp 3:40 Colonel Custard 0.5pt win 10/1

Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Black Op (P )
Kemp 3:05 Lostintranslation (P )
Weth 2:10 Didero Vallis (C )
Leop 1:10 Sacchoandvanzeti (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions