Daily write-up - Dec 13th

It’s the opening day of the 2 day ‘International’ meeting at Cheltenham.
They also race over the jumps at both Bangor and Doncaster.

This is the third meeting at Cheltenham so far this season - and amazingly, as with the previous 2, there has been significant rainfall in the days prior.

The ground at Cheltenham had dried out to ‘good to soft’ at the beginning of this week - but there was around 10mm of rain, yesterday.

I expected that to mean that the ground would be ‘soft’ - or even worse - today, however, the official description remains the same - though now with ‘soft’ patches…
I guess we shall see !

The uncertainty regarding the state of the ground has seen me change my mind on a couple of potential tips.
It’s a frustrating situation to be in - but there is nothing that can be done about it - and as you know, I always prefer to air on the side of caution !  

Part of the frustration, is because I do like it, when there is decent racing on a Friday.
It’s much easier when I can focus on one card, rather than spreading myself across 2 or 3 (which is often the case on Saturdays).

Obviously, you still need the ‘right’ kind of races - but that was the case today, so finding potential bets, wasn’t too hard.

Deciding which ones should be tips (based on how strongly I fancy them - and the prices available), was a bit trickier - even before I had to factor in the ground ! - though I’ve still managed to find a couple.

Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other races on the Cheltenham card…


Cheltenham

12:10

My initial feeling was that this is quite an open race - but a quote of 4/7 about Chantry House, suggests I may have got that wrong !
In fairness, it’s not an easy race to assess, as all of the runners lack experience.
It’s therefore going to be priced up, primarily on reputation - and Chantry House clearly has quite a big one !
Part of that is down to his connections (he is owned by JP McManus and trained by Nicky Henderson) - and part of it is down to the positive visual impression he made when bolting up on his racehorse debut in March.
That was is a bumper at Warwick, where he comfortably beat Edwardstone. That one has won his 2 hurdle races this season, meaning that the form also has some substance.
In receipt of weight from a a number of his rivals today, he is clearly the one to beat- though whether you’d want to be piling in at 4/7, is a different matter !
I wouldn’t necessarily advocate taking him on - but if he weren’t in the race, Pileon and Glory and Fortune, are the 2 who would interest me most.
The former won a fair bumper at Exeter last March - and should do well over hurdles; whilst the latter has already won over hurdles - and ran well when third in a listed hurdle race last time.
He sets the race standard on the form of that run - and it’s a decent standard - though this does look a potentially strong race.
If there’s a bet in the race, then it is probably Glory and Fortune EW - or without the fav. Though in truth, it is probably a race best watched, with an eye to the future…

12:45

Only 5 go to post for this - but it’s still an fascinating contest.
Pym sets the standard, based on his comfortable win in a good class novice handicap at Ascot, last time out.
He surprised me a little that day - but was a worthy winner.
However, I’m not sure the form justifies his new rating of 149.
He faces 4 dangerous looking rivals - and I’d be more inclined to lay him than back him, at around 11/8.
However, choosing which of his opponents is most likely to beat him, is not an easy task…
I’m drawn to Stoney Mountain, who was a tenacious winner of a high class handicap hurdle at Haydock, last time.
I’m sure he will make a very good chaser in the fullness of time - though this is a tough race to make your fencing debut in.
He may be up to the job - but he may not…
Rockpoint, Imperial Aura and Aye Aye Charlie, are all decent animals - quite capable of wining a race of this nature. It’s just not easy choosing which one of them will do best, today.
Ultimately, I could see any of the 5 runners winning this race - depending on how things pan out.
I’d be relatively happy to oppose Pym - at the prices - accepting, that he could win.
If Stoney Mountains jumping holds up, then in receipt of weight from Pym and Imperial Aura, he should be hard to beat.
However, there is too much guesswork - and insufficient in the prices - to warrant getting heavily involved in the race.

1:20

This is not an easy race to call.
There are 13 runners (one has just been scratched) - and I could give most of them a chance of sorts (depending on how the ground is riding).
I can understand Never Adapt heading the market - and she could easily be much better than her mark of 128.
However, she is impossible to accurately assess - so whilst I would be prepared to take a chance on her at a price, that price would be bigger than 4/1 !
Fanfan du Seuil, is another whom I could be very interested in.
He finished fifth in last seasons Fred Winter hurdle at the festival - and runs today from a mark 3lb lower.
That suggests he is potentially well handicapped - and provided he gets the decent ground he needs, I can see him running very well.
Prior to his run at the festival, Fanfan du seuil had finished second in a Triumph hurdle trial, run at the December Cheltenham meeting (this one !).
There is a similar race run at the November Cheltenham meeting - and Repititio finished third in that race, this year.
It’s impossible to compare the form of the 2 contests - but I suspect they were of a similar level, therefore Repetitio looks quite interesting this afternoon off a mark of 125 (Fanfan is rated 133).
Certainly, he ran really well in that race - and whilst it’s impossible to measure the form, the winner is quite well fancied for this years Triumph hurdle.
On the form alone, I would give Repetitio a chance - but what makes him particularly interesting, is that he is only 3.
At this time of year, 3 year old receive a stone in weight for age allowance from their older rivals.
I’m sure there is evidence to show it is warranted - but it strikes me as a huge amount.
Repetitio is a relatively experienced horse - he’s already notched up 10 career starts: 4 on the flat and 6 over hurdles. That’s 3 more in total than Fanfan (who is only a year older).
He is already quite battled hardened - so the allowance could well turn out to be very generous.
That said, this is far from a 2 - or even 3 - horse race…
I would see Barntown as the main danger - with Peter the Mayo Man and John Constable, 2 outsiders who should be watched very closely in the betting.
A case of sorts can be made for most of the others, as well…
That said, it can be argued that Repetitio is quite well handicapped - even ignoring the age allowance. He’s also got scope for improvement - so at the price, is worth a small risk.

1:55

I had intended to get involved in this race - but that was when I thought the ground was going to be riding softer than looks likely to be the case.
The horse I planned to side with, was Molly Carew.
She really impressed me when winning at Ffos Las, last season - and whilst she has disappointed on her 3 subsequent runs, the 2 most recent ones have been on unsuitably quick ground.
As a result, her mark has dropped, so she is now only 4lb higher than when winning at Ffos Las - and an extra 4lb wouldn’t have stopped her that day !
The case for her would have been strengthened by the fact that 2 of her rivals - Parlour Maid and Definitelyanoscar - want decent ground.
However, it appears they may be in luck !
Chequered View will be tough to beat, whatever the conditions - but her mark has risen 12lb in the last couple of months and the handicapper will get her sooner rather than later…
In short - I would have taken a risk on Mooly Carew - but only if the ground was right.
My guess is that it won’t be - but you should be able to make a better assessment  after the first few races (I would want it to be at least ‘soft’, in order to support her).

2:30

Once again, the state of the ground is likely to have a big outcome on the result of this race - though Cogry won’t actually care how it’s riding !
How won the corresponding race 12 months ago - when the ground was good.
However, he also ran a huge race on his seasonal reappearance last time, when the ground was soft (nearer heavy).
He really is totally indifferent to conditions.
He’s also well handicapped and perfectly suited to todays track and trip.
That is born out by the fact he won last years race, when running off precisely the same mark that he races off today.
He only just got the better of Singlefarmpayment that day - and in theory, that one should be able to reverse the form today, on 6lb better terms.
However, Singlefarmpayment needs decent ground (which he may - or may not - get) - and also has a bit of an issue with winning ! (which Cogry certainly does not !).
In truth, this race looks likely to go to one of the top 5 in the betting - the tricky bit is figuring out which one.
West Approach is a potential danger - but he is 10lb worse off with Cogry for the length that he finished in front of him, back in October. That really should be sufficient for Cogry to reverse the form.
Onefortheroadtom could be more of a danger, as he’s 2lb better off with Cogry for a couple of lengths in the same race.
He’s also a younger horse (and hence has greater scope for improvement) - and is blinkered for the first time today.
On the flip side, he’s more than capable of making a mistake - and has been well found in the market.
Rock the Kasbah is the other one of major interest.
He appreciates good ground - and is handicapped to go very close today.
I’ve nothing against him - I just feel that Cogry is more likely to run his race.
In fact, I’ll be very surprised/disappointed if Cogry doesn’t run his race - which is why I’m suggesting him EW.
There is a chance that one or two of the other 4 mentioned, will get the better of him - but I would be very hopeful that he will at least get placed (assuming his jumping - and his luck - hold up !).
Beau de Brizais is the most interesting of the outsiders - but he wants decent ground (which he may get !).

3:05

Whilst it is quite tempting to get involved with this race, I’m going to resist…
The main reason for the temptation, is because I would quite like to take on Yanworth.
He was a high class hurdle a couple of seasons back (he was sent off favourite for the 2017 Champion hurdle) - but he disappointed in that race - setting a trend for the next couple of years.
He was transferred into the care of Enda Bolger, this summer - with the hope that his flame could be rekindled in bank races.
Bolger is an expert in re-invigorating stale horses - and based on his debut run at Punchestown, he may have worked the oracle with Yanworth.
Certainly that’s what the betting would have you believe - but I’m not entirely convinced.
Whilst it’s true that Yanworth won that day - it was only narrowly - and on the book,  Neverushacon should reverse the form today.
That said, I don’t see him as Yanworths biggest rival: in fact, I’m not sure who I see as Yanworths biggest rival !
There is a large and varied field assembled for today race - and it’s hard to cut through it.
For a start, there are 4 runners over from France - and it would be foolish to under-estimate any of them.
Easyland looks the best of them - and I would probably make him the most likely race winner - but apparently he has a preference for heavy ground.
By contrast, his stablemate, Amazing Comely wants it quick.
It’ll be interesting to see which one of them the market prefers…
Chic Name also wants quick ground - and granted that, he definitely has a chance.
Rolling Dylan, Kingswell Theatre and Hurricane Darwin are 3 others who are capable of getting involved.
In short, the race just looks too trappy.
If forced, I would maybe have a tiny play on Hurricane Darwin.
I think he has a chance - and odds of 20/1 under-estimate that chance.

3:40

I like the look of Ask Ben in this - but so too, unfortunately, does everyone else !
He ran a massive race at Haydock on his seasonal debut, when finishing fourth behind Stoney Mountain and if he can build on that, he should go very close.
On the flip side, he did have a hard race that day - and he has been raised 3lb for his effort - so there are negatives.
More than that, he faces at least half a dozen potentially dangerous rivals, who could take advantage, if he’s not on the top of his game.
I thought that No Getaway looked the most interesting of them - but he is weak in the betting, which is a concern (particularly for one trained by Dan Skelton).
That said, cases can also be made for Kilbricken Storm, Falco Blitz, Champers on Ice (though he would prefer soft), Goodbye Dancer, Debesteyman and Smackwater Jack.
All have them have a question mark over them (at least one, in some cases !) - but all are also capable of going close…
Ask Ben is certainly the most solid option in the race - but he is also the race favourite.
Ultimately, it came down to prices.
In a 12 runner race, where I reckon 8 have a chance, 4/1 would seem about right.
He was that price in places this morning - but generally a 7/2 shot.
7/2 is now the best price - with 10/3 generally on offer.
There’s no margin at that price - even if he wins !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Chel 1:20 Repetitio 0.5pt win 10/1Chel 2:30 Cogry 0.75pt EW 5/1

Mentions
Chel 12:10 Glory and Fortune (w/o fav)
Chel 12:45 Stoney Mountain (O )
Chel 1:55 Molly Carew (C )
Chel 3:05 Hurricane Darwin (S )
Chel 3:40 Ask Ben (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions