Daily write-up - Dec 7th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Aintree, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

It really is an incredible days racing - with both quality and quantity !

The days mains meetings are at Sandown and Aintree - but there are excellent supporting cards at both Chepstow and Navan (and Wetherby isn’t too bad, either !)

It’s the kind of day, when I could have spent hours going through the races at each meeting - but alas, I don’t have time to do that.

Instead, I’ve focused on the races which are being shown on terrestrial TV - along with a few others, where I strongly fancied something.

Choosing what to tip today, really wasn’t easy.

I had a pretty long list of ‘possibles’, so lets hope I’m opted for the right ones.
Ofcourse, most of the others, are Mentions (or potential savers), so the keen amongst you, can cover all eventualities - if that’s how you like to play things.

Anyway, I’ve no time for rambling - there are a lot of races for me to preview.

Here is the rationale for todays tips - plus my thoughts on as many of the days other races that I could find time to cover !!


Sandown

1:50

If the ground were riding quick, I’d be very keen on Nubre Negra is this.
He’s looked a completely different horse this season, having been sent over fences.
His slick jumping is as good as I’ve seen from any novice this season - and the tough Sandown track should really play to his strengths,
However, yesterdays rain could cause him some issues.
He has a marked preference for decent ground - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is anywhere near as effective on rain softened ground.
Even more of an issue for him, is the fact that his 3 main rivals are all likely to relish conditions.
Summerville Boy has shown his best form on heavy ground, so it can’t be too soft for him; whilst neither Torpillo or Grand Sancy, should be inconvenienced by soft ground.
Summerville Boy and Torpillo have both won their only start over fences - with the latter looking the more accomplished jumper.
In receipt of a 4 year old allowance, he is probably the one to beat - though I can resist him at a price of 2/1.
It would be more tempting to take a chance on Grand Sancy.
He is making his chasing debut - but is the second highest rated over hurdles (behind Summerville boy), so if he can translate his form to the bigger obstacles, he should go close.
It’s a tough race to make your chasing debut in however, so on balance, I think I’ll just watch…

2:25

Although it grates a little, taking 4/1 in a big field Saturday handicap, I want to be with Malaya in this…
I tipped her last March, when she won the Imperial cup over todays course and distance.
That was a much stronger contest than todays - and she won well, despite making a complete mess of the second last hurdle.
She gets to run off a mark just 4lb higher today - and simply, if she is in the same form, she should win.
She’s already had a couple of runs this season: firstly over fences at Market Rasen - and then back over hurdles at Ascot.
The Market Rasen race didn’t go too well - as she apparently cut herself.
That’s probably why she was returned to hurdles at Ascot, where she never real featured - but apparently was a little short on work that day.
As we are aware, Paul Nichols likes to farm these big Saturday handicaps - and he will know that she is handicapped to win this one.
I’ll be amazed if she is not spot on today - and if she is, then she’s going to be hard to beat.
Protektorat looks the main danger, as an unexposed 4 year old; though the Nichols trained Ashutor is also a slight worry (particularly if he is well backed).
Smarty Wild and Song for Someone are 2 others for whom cases can be made - but in truth, this isn’t as strong a race as you would expect, for the prize money on offer.

3:00

I’m half tempted to get involved in this, simply because I think Defi du Seuil is too short, at 6/4…
I’m a big fan of the horse - and I won’t be overly surprised if he does win. However, this is a competitive race - and he really shouldn’t be so short in the betting.
In fact, based on his last run at Cheltenham, he could have his work cut out to beat Politologue.
He came out on top by just over a length that day - but the race was run to suit him (Politologue made the running) and he is 3lb worse off today.
The suggestion is that Politologue should get his revenge - and whether he does or not, it’s certainly hard to justify the discrepancy in their prices…
Similarly, it’s hard to justify Un de Sceux being a much bigger price that Defi, when he is rated 8lb superior !
He may be heading to his 12th birthday, but there is no reason to think that his powers are significantly diminished…
In simple terms, Defi is favourite because he has greater potential than his 2 main rivals…
If the ground was riding a bit quicker, then I’d actually be tempted to take a chance on Sceau Royal.
He’s previously shown himself effective at Sandown - and is a pure 2 miler.
However, he does have a preference for decent ground - and the lack of a run this season, may also count against him.
It’ll be a little surprising if any of the other 4 are good enough to win - though they are all smart performers in their own right.
If you asked me to name the most likely winner, I’d go for Defi du Seuil - but I’d wanted at least 2/1 - maybe even 5/2 - before I could consider supporting him.

3:35

I like the chance of Get on the Yager in this - and at 16/1 this morning, he was simply too big a price.
His defeats of Ramses de Teille and Wakanda, 2 years ago - both read very well as prices of form and it’s not surprising that on the back of those wins, he was rated 140.
Things didn’t go so well for him last season, when he only ran 3 times - however, on the last of those runs, he finished third in the Midlands Grand national.
He didn’t quite stay the extreme 4m2f trip that day - so dropping back by 5 furlongs today, should be ideal for him.
Following a quiet seasonal debut run at Cheltenham he’s now rated 130 - and he can do damage off that mark.
The fitting of cheek pieces and a tongue tie for the first time, suggest that connections mean business - as does Harry Skelton back in the saddle (he was ridden by a conditional, last time).
I really can’t seem him not running well (granted a bit of luck), so figure he is worth backing to win - but saving stakes on him placing.
Plenty of his opponents can be given a chance - but non have outstanding credentials.
Classic Ben won over todays course in February - and looks to have been targeted at todays race. Assuming he stays the trip, he could be the biggest danger.
Whilst Shanroe Santos was an eye catcher at Fontwell last time - and he’s another who should definitely be in the mix.


Aintree

1:00

I’m quite keen on Mount Mews in this.
Originally trained by Malcom Jefferson - and then switched to his daughter Ruth - he was a very decent novice hurdler, who was thought capable of going places.
He actually finished second in a novice grade 1 event at the Grand National meeting, 3 seasons ago.
On the back of that run, he was rated 145 - and there was half a thought that he might develop into a Champion hurdle horse.
That didn’t happen - and he was also disappointing when switched to fences.
As a consequence, he was returned to hurdles - and transferred to Donald McCain.
He’s only run 4 times for McCain - and whilst he is yet to win, he ran with real promise on his seasonal return at Wetherby last month.
He was outspeeded from the last, by Sakhees City, that day - but lost little in defeat.
Apparently he is a tough horse to get fit - so I would expect him to come on for the run.
If he has, then off a mark of 136 today, he looks well handicapped.
The fitting of cheek pieces suggests intent - and Trevor Hemmings horses always need to be respected at Aintree.
In short, he has a lot going for him and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close.

1:30

I did intend to get involved with this race - but I’ve ultimately decide that it is just too tricky…
Part of my issue is that I can’t decide which horse I fancy most !
Yesterday, I was very keen on Vieux Lion Rouge - but he needs soft ground and I’m not sure there has been enough rain for him.
Even if the ground isn’t quite soft enough, I would still expect him to run very well - but I’m not going to tip a horse EW at 10/1 in a race like this.
The next one on my list, is Walk in the Mill.
I tipped him when he won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and he has every chance of following up today, off a mark just 4lb higher.
He’s also not as dependant on soft ground - and is a year younger than Vieux Lion Rouge…
Vintage Clouds is the third one on my short (ish) list - even though he fell at the first in this years Grand National !
Based on his run at last seasons Cheltenham festival, he is handicapped to go very close…
If I felt the race was between the 3 of them, I might have found a way to get involved - but there are at least half a dozen more who can be given a chance.
Defintily Red and Ballyoptic both have sufficient class to be able to defy their big weights; whilst Mulcahys hill and Kimberlite Candy have potential to be a fair bit better than their marks.
There are also the course specialists - such as One for Arthur and As de Mee.
Even then, there are a further 3 of 4 potentially dangerous looking outsiders to consider…
On balance I just felt it was too trappy to get involved.
If forced off the fence, I would go for Vintage Clouds - to completely turn Sue Smiths season on its head - but I’m not being forced, so I’ll just watch the race instead !

2:05

This is a slightly strange race to be showing on terrestrial TV, on a day when there is so much good racing.
It’s a listed race for juvenile fillies - so it important for future breeding and is quite valuable (which is why it’s on TV !).
There’s too much guesswork required, to consider a serious involvement - and whilst cases can be easily made for Midnights Gift and Garochecka, if I were to get involved, I would probably take a small chance on Irish raider Mianna.
It’s hard to construct a solid case for her - but she has more experience than most of her rivals (which should stand her in good stead) - and her latest hurdles run at Ballinrobe, has some merit.
Above all that however, I just find it interesting that a relatively small Irish trainer has brought her over for the race.
If you can get any of the 33/1 on offer, then she could be worth a small speculative play.

2:40

It will be a little strange to watch Native River and Might Bite competing in a 4 horse race - considering the last time they met was in the epic Gold cup of 2018.
Native River came out on top that day - and is expected to do the same today - but I’m not sure it’ll be that cut and dry.
For a start, Native River really needs soft ground to be seen at his best; I also always felt that Might Bite was the more talented horse…
Clearly he lost the plot a little last season - and he will need to be back close to his best if he is to win today.
However, apparently Nicky Henderson has turned him inside out over the summer- and I just feel that Henderson has something invested in the horse bouncing back to his best.
I managed to get a bit of 3/1 earlier today on the exchanges - and I definitely think Might Bite is worth a risk at that kind of price.
Ofcourse, there is also the possibility that Black Corton will trump them both - and as the only one with assured fitness, that’s not impossible.
However, he doesn’t have the basic class of the 2 market leaders - so if you do support him, it has to be in the belief that the Native River and Might Bite have declined (and by quite a bit).

3:15

I was quite keen on Didero Vallis when he made his seasonal debut at Ascot last month - and although he disappointed that day, I’m going to keep the faith and support him again today.
The fact is, he did exactly the same thing 12 months ago - disappointing on his seasonal debut before winning next time at Carlisle.
He followed that up by winning again at Haydock - and then ran his best race of the season when finishing fifth in the Plate at Cheltenham.
That was a strong race - and a reproduction of that form would see him go very close this afternoon.
It’s also worth noting that he’s still only 6 years old - so should have plenty of improvement in him.
Based on the Ascot run, then Didero Vallis shouldn’t be able to beat Flying Angel - and he is definitely a danger; along with Touch Kick; and course specialist, Ultragold.
That said, they occupy the top 3 places in the betting, and a better value option for a saver, is Federici…
He’s a couple of pounds out of the handicap - and hasn’t run yet this season.
On the flip side, he is potentially well handicapped (despite carrying 2lb more than  his allotted weight) - and has excellent course form.
I have little doubt that Donald McCain will have him tuned to the minute for this - and as a consequence, he is worth a very small bet at decent odds.


Chepstow

1:55

I’m pretty keen on Acting Lass in this - and I’m really not surprised that he has been very well backed.
He was an eye catcher last time, on his seasonal debut at Ascot - but for the wrong reasons !
He was reluctant to race in the early stages - and only Sean Bowen's persistence, kept him in the race.
That said, a mile from home, I thought there was a chance he might win !
However, he then started to fade and ultimately, was well beaten.
I’m not surprised to see cheek pieces enlisted today - and if they have the desired effect, then he could bolt up in this !
He’s already won off a mark a pound higher than he races off today - and he followed that up by being sent off 7/2 fav for the 15 runner class 1 Racing Post chase (as was !).
He was well beaten that day - but connections put that down to the quick ground.
Quick ground is rarely an issue at Chepstow !
Simply, if the horse still retains that level of ability - and his focus can be kept on the job, then he should win.
Paddy Brennan is a very interesting jockey booking, in Sean Bowens absence - so far as I can tell this is the first time he has ridden for Harry Fry.
Harry Fry himself has his horses in excellent shape (as he usually does).
Most of his main rivals are making their seasonal debuts today - which is rarely ideal; whilst Captain Cattistock effectively runs off a mark 6lb higher than the one he was beaten from at Fontwell last time.
In short, they are all beatable - if Acting Lass gets his act together !

2:30

This is an open looking race - but I think it is worth taking a chance on Down the Highway.
I have to be honest, half of the appeal with him, is his connections.
He’s trained by Emma Lavelle - and ridden by Ben Jones.
They teamed up last week, with De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke trophy - and it looks to me as if Ben Jones has been sent to Chepstow today, specifically to ride Down the Highway.
Lavelle runs a couple of horses with chances at Sandown - but she knows that Jones’ 5lb claim is a gift and she has chosen to use that gift on Down the Highway !
And I think that’s fair enough…
The horse has some decent form as a novice hurdler last season - and whilst he never featured on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter last moth, that was a relatively hot contest.
Furthermore, Down the Highway is apparently a horse who takes a bit of getting fit - so I would expect him to leave that run behind, today.
Whether he will be good enough to win todays race, remains to be seen: but his run behind Lisnagar Oscar in January, shows he acts on the course - and it also suggests that his mark of 130, is fair.
Most of his rivals can be given some kind of chance.
Sojourn is favourite on the back of an impressive win at Market Rasen - and he could be tough to beat, even off a 10lb higher mark.
Whilst at a bigger price, Diamond Fort for the all conquering Fergal O'Brien, is quite likely to outrun his odds.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Sand 2:25 Malaya 1pt win 4/1
Sand 3:35 Get on the Yager 0.75pt win/0.25pt place 16/1 (ie. 0.5pt win & 0.25pt EW)
Aint 1:00 Mount Mews 1pt win 13/2
Aint 3:15 Didero Vallis 0.75pt win 10/1
Aint 3:15 Federici 0.25pt win 14/1
Chep 1:55 Acting Lass 1pt win 5/1
Chep 2:30 Down the Highway 1pt win 7/1

Mentions

Sand 1:50 Grand Sancy (C )
Sand 3:00 Defi du Seul (P )
Aint 1:30 Vintage Clouds (O )
Aint 2:05 Mianna (S )
Aint 2:40 Might Bite (S )The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions