Daily write-up - Dec 21st

There are 4 NH meetings taking place today: at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle in the UK - plus Thurles in Ireland.

I think this is the seventh weekend of the TVB season - and I reckon that it’s rained on every one of them !
More than that, it was definitely raining the weekend before the season started - so that’s at least 8 consecutive weekends of rain !

In the circumstances, it’s not too surprising that meetings are struggling to take place - and those that do survive are being run on desperate ground - with small fields, an understandable consequence.

Hopefully, Ascot will survive today.
The ground looked very soft yesterday - and there was even more rain overnight.
Assuming they do race, then I can only imagine how it will ride this afternoon.

I suspect conditions will be similar at Haydock.
It’s a track known for its deep ground, even at the best of times - and weather-wise, these are hardly the best of times !

Anyway, it is what it is.
We can’t change conditions - so we’ve just got to get on with things (or opt out !)

In fairness, there are some decent races across the days 2 big meetings - and with the ground likely to sort out the runners, the big fields aren’t quite as scary as they might superficially appear.

Ofcourse,that means that the odds on offer aren’t quite as generous as we might like - but you can’t have everything.

I’ve ended up with 5 tips on the day - across 4 races.

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races…


Ascot

1:15

When I first looked at this race, my feeling was that I wanted to be with Paloma Blue.
He was a very decent novice hurdler 2 seasons ago (border line top class) - and whilst he disappointed a little last season, when put over fences, he still ran to a decent level.
More than that, the suggestion from his seasonal debut run behind the potentially top class Getabird, is that he could be ready to pick up the thread from his novice hurdling days - and if that is the case, he should win this.
It adds to his case, that Henry de Bromhead has sent him over to run in the race (bearing in mind how many options he will have in Ireland over the Christmas period) - whilst Davy Russell on top, is another big plus.
However, the ground, is a real concern - or more specifically, the ground coupled with the trip, is a real concern…
Over 2 miles, I would have little issue with Paloma Blue on heavy ground - however he is unproven over todays trip of 2m5f, and the ground is likely to put stamina at a premium.
He may get away with it - but equally, he may not…
If he doesn’t then Riders onthe storm looks the one most likely to benefit, on the back of his scintillating stable debut for Nigel Twiston Davies.
He looked a much improved horse when bolting up in a hot handicap at Aintree.
That said, he will need to be much improved, as Paloma Blue was definitely his superior when they were both running in Ireland.
The other 3 runners are all useful: but On the Blind Side and Double Shuffle may well struggle on the ground; whilst Adrian de Pont is rated 7lb inferior to Riders onthe Storm.

1:50

As the market would suggest, this race is most likely to be won by either First Flow or Espoir de Guye.
Both are relatively unexposed novices, who could be way ahead of their current marks.
First Flow in particular, could easily have 10lb in hand - and if that’s the case, he will take some beating.
He was a very useful novice hurdler, 2 seasons back - when he was sent off at just 12/1 for the supreme novice hurdle, at the Cheltenham festival.
He disappointed that day - and only ran once last season - but he’s returned this campaign over fences, as has looked as good as ever.
I was particularly impressed by his penultimate run over todays course and distance, when he really put it up to Angels Breath.
That one won again yesterday - and is likely to be rated around 155. First Flow runs today off a mark of just 140…
The other big positive with him, is his need for soft ground. I’m pretty sure he will get that this afternoon..!
Espoire de Guye is rated 10lb inferior to First Flow - but that is still 9lb higher than he would have been rated if he’d not dotted up in a weak race at Exeter, last time out.
He could easily be capable of defying his new mark - and he will also relish underfoot conditions - but he will find todays race a lot tougher.
If neither of them were running, then I would be very keen on Garde le Victoire.
Formerly a top class handicapper/borderline graded horse, he’s not seen much action for the past 2 seasons - but as a consequence, the handicapper has cut him some serious slack.
Rated 158 at his peak - and having won off 154 - he gets to run today off a mark of just 144.
He’s 10 - so probably just past his best - but hardly in terminal decline !
He has a decent record fresh - and should have no issue with conditions.
At 14/1, he is definitely worth a small play.
Rather than back him EW, I would prefer to have a saver on one of the ‘big 2’.
I prefer First Flow to Espoir de Guye - so he is the one I’m siding with.
Hopefully Garde le Victoire will be able to beat them both - but if he can’t then there’s a good chance that First Flow will save the stakes (with a bit of interest !).

2:25

Paisley Park should win this - provided he handles the ground.
He’s rated at least a stone superior to all of his rivals - and come into todays race on the back an impressive seasonal debut victory over Thistlecrack.
He’s a horse at the peak of his powers - and all things being equal, really should dispatch the 5 horses who line up against him.
All this said, the ground is a worry…
His worse runs have come on soft ground - and he’s never run on ground as soft as he’ll face today.
I would hope that he’ll get away with it - mainly because he should win even if he’s a fair way below his best - but I wouldn’t bet on it (at least not at odds of 1/4 !)
It doesn’t help that most of his rivals relish heavy conditions !
It can’t be too heavy for Agrapart and Papagana; whilst L’Ami Serge and Tobefair, will both be quite at home in the mud.
Of the 4, then Agrapart probably interests me most at the odds.
He’s fallen hugely in the weights - but will be perfectly suited by conditions and could be worth a small play at around 25/1, if you do want an involvement in the race.

3:00

I like the look of Jerrysback in this.
He’s relatively unexposed over fences - with just the 6 runs - but he’s shown very good form on a few occasions.
His comfortable defeat of the now 144 rated Mulcahys Hill at Bangor reads well: but not as well as his narrow defeat by the now 159 rated Vinndication.
He also ran with enormous credit in the 4 miler at the Cheltenham festival - travelling best until half a mile out, when his stamina gave way.
He runs off a mark of just 143 this afternoon - and I’m pretty sure he’s at least 7lb better than that.
He should also be perfectly suited by todays 3 mile trip in heavy ground - and he’s proved himself around Ascot.
In short, there are ticks in plenty of boxes…
In fairness, this is quite a hot race (as you would expect).
Yalltari and Mister Malarky are 2 very dangerous looking second season novices.
There shouldn’t be much between them based on their run Reynoldstown, over todays course and distance, back in February.
I’d have a slight preference for Yalltari - but it would be slight !
Kildisart also has a fair chance, based on his defeat of Mister Malarkey - though he’s unproven on heavy ground.
Whilst Acting Lass is the other one that I’m a little wary of.
He was a winning tip at Chepstow last time - and whilst he is up 5lb for that win and this is a much stronger race, I suspect he has potential for further improvement…

3:35

This is one of those races, which I spent a long time trying to solve (probably too long !) - and kept on reaching a different conclusion !
I started off by fancying Quoi de Neuf, to give Evan Williams another big race win - but then slightly cooled on him, as I wasn’t completely convinced by his finishing effort at Cheltenham.
Next I latched on to Umbrigado, for David Pipe - but then started to worry whether he will have the pace for todays minimum trip (even accepting that stamina is likely to imperative).
Tamroc du Matan was next to be seriously considered - but this might be too tough  a race for him at this point in his career; and the same argument can be levelled at  Countiser - who has the 4th horse I seriously considered…
At this point, I was half tempted to give up on the race - but I’ve done very well unravelling the big handicaps this season - even if I’ve not tipped all of my conclusions !
I therefore went back to Quoi de Neuf and re-watched his Cheltenham race (the Greatwood).
He was beaten by Harambe and Monsieur Lecoq that day - and on second viewing, it became clear to me that Monsieur Lecoq was the best horse in the race.
He looked to have the race won, half way up the hill - but then idled and was worried out of it close home.
He’s 1lb worse off with Quoi de Neuf today - but he looks a much tougher horse (his additional jockey claim also means he will actually be carrying 2lb less).
What was putting me off Monsieur Lecoq, was that he ran as recently as last Saturday in the International hurdle.
He finished a perfectly creditable fourth in that race - and ran up the hill like a lion.
I suspect that he could have won - but Lizzy Kelly was keen not to let him hit the front too soon, following the run in the Greatwood.
I think she just overdid the waiting tactics…
Anyway, connections should have learnt plenty about the horse - and I now actually view the fact he is being allowed to run again so quickly, as a positive !
He may be carrying top weight - but that doesn’t mean he is badly handicapped.
Furthermore, it is quite noticeable how well top weights have recently performed  in this race (won 2 of the last 3 runnings).
Clearly, Monsieur Lecoq is no certainty - but having considered all of the options (!), he’s the one I most want to be with.


Haydock

2:05

When I first looked at this race, I was hopeful that I would be able to find an angle for supporting Flashjack.
He’s a horse I like - and I tipped him on the opening day of the TVB season, when he finished third at Ayr.
He’s a massive horse, who wants the ground as deep as possible - which I'm sure he will get today !
I doubt he’ll have an issue with the weight he has to carry - but looking at the opposition, I think he might have an issue with at least one of them !
Flashjack is a class 3 horse - at best - but I fear he may have bumped into one who could be a fair bit better than that…
Big Shark is unbeaten in 2 novice hurdles this season - and the form of them looks very strong.
When he won at Worcester back in October, he beat One for the Team, with Go Whatever back in fifth place.
Both of those horses have since come out and run really well in much better races, suggesting that was a particularly strong maiden.
Similarly, Mr Muldoon, who Big Shark beat by 10 lengths at Hereford last time, came out and bolted up at Ascot yesterday.
It’s impossible to assess Big Shark accurately - but it looks at if he could be a 140+ horse.
He runs off 133 today - with Ben Jones taking off a further 5lb.
Suffice to say, if he handles conditions, he’s going to take a world of beating…

2:40

I looked at this race earlier in the week, and was pretty keen on the chances of Daklondike.
I tipped him when he won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and whilst he has to race off a mark 6lb higher today, he’s a relatively young horse, so it’s reasonable to think that he will have made that much improvement during the past 12 months.
He’ll relish the heavy ground - and his stable are in excellent from (better than they were 12 months ago).
However, when the final declarations came through, there were a couple of things that put me off…
Firstly, David Noonan is riding, rather than Tom Scudamore.
Scudamore is first jockey to Davd Pipe and his ridden the horse for all of its wins - however, he has gone to Ascot for one ride (Umbrigado).
Secondly, the horse is wearing no head gear - despite having shown all of his best form in head gear.
If Scudamore was riding, I may have been prepared to overlook that - but two concerns, is one too many !
My feeling now, is that he’s being readied for another day (probably back at Haydock - but from a slightly lower mark).
The trouble is, if I take him out of the race, then I’ve no idea what will win it !
Vintage Cloud could be the one. He’s well enough handicapped - and should have no issue with conditions.
However, he had a bad time at Aintree, on his most recent outing and there must be a chance that will have affected his confidence.
The Hollow Ginge is the safe option - but he’s also the race favourite.
From a betting perspective, Orchardtown Cross makes more appeal.
His latest run at Ascot will need to be ignored - but he was on an upward curve prior to that, so if that it was just a blip, he has a definite chance.

3:15

I tipped Off the Hook at the back end of last season, when she ran in the NH mares final at Newbury - and I want to be with her again today.
She didn’t win that race - but she ran really well and finished an honourable fourth.
I don’t know whether she ran up to expectations of connections - but she was put away for the summer, following that run and didn’t reappear until Ayr, last month.
She only finished sixth in the Ayr race - but she travelled nicely and my feeling was that she would come on significantly for the run.
The handicapper dropped her a pound for the effort, which means that she runs today from a mark 3lb lower than at Newbury (when I thought he could win !).
My feeling is that she is a well handicapped horse - but that’s not the main attraction with her today…
Her best run last season, was when she finished third in the listed mares race, run earlier on todays card.
That race is run over the same course and distance as this one - and was also run on heavy ground.
She was beaten 2 lengths by the 135 rated Queenofhearts - with the now 146 rated Papagana, a length behind.
Off the Hook races today off a mark of 118 - so she not only does she have ideal conditions - she could be thrown in !
The other big attraction with her, is the actual weight that she carries.
In heavy ground, every pound makes a difference. She will be carrying just 10st2lb - that’s 24lb less than top weight, Poetic Rhythm - and there has to be a chance that will count, at the business end of the race…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Asc 1:50 Garde la Victoire 0.5pt win 14/1
Asc 1:50 First Flow 0.5pt win 3/1 (saver)
Asc 3:00 Jerrysback 1pt win 6/1
Asc 3:35 Monsieur Lecoq 0.5pt win 10/1
Hayd 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 7/1

Mentions
Asc 1:15 Paloma Blue (C )
Asc 2:25 Agrapart (w/o Paisley Park)
Hayd 2:05 Big Shark (P )
Hayd 2:40 Orchardstown Cross (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions