The number of meetings may be the same as yesterday - but I can sense the pace beginning to slacken a little (thank goodness !)
Newbury host the only meeting of real note in the UK: and whilst there is a grade 1 contest - the Challow hurdle - top level races don’t come much more low key !
Over in Ireland, it’s day 3 of the Christmas festivals at both Leopardstown and Limerick.
In fairness, the Leopardstown card is arguably the strongest of the week - with the feature Savills chase a real treat.
Similarly, Limerick put on decent quality card, with a strong feature handicap.
Needless to say, it wasn’t too much of a job to find some potential tips for the day - and I managed to convert 5 of them in actual tips.
Let’s hope I’ve hit on the ‘right’ ones today !
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the days other big races…
Newbury
1:15
I quite like the look of Chozen in this.
He won on his seasonal - and chasing debut - at Southwell, at the start of last season.
He probably would have won next time as well - but fell when going strongly at Newcastle.
He didn’t run again for nearly 6 months - but then made a successful return at Ffos Las, when he battled on gamely for a narrow win.
Those 2 victories show that he is a horse who’s at his best when fresh.
Given his running style, that’s not a great surprise, as he is a very keen racer.
The Ffos Las win also shows that he can handle cut in the ground: if you can cope with Ffos Las soft, you can cope with soft, just about anywhere !
The doubts concern his level of ability - as this is a better race than he usually contests.
That said, he is just 7 - and has only raced 11 times under rules - so it’s quite likely that he’s not yet reached his peak.
Assuming he is allowed to stride on (which is what I expect), then he could get an uncontested lead.
If that happens - and assuming his jumping holds up - then I think he could be hard to peg back.
1:50
I was half tempted by Soul Emotion in this.
Just over a year ago, he ran in the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle at Ascot,
He was quite well fancied for that race, but disappointed - and worse, collapsed after crossing the line.
Thankfully he recovered - and there were no signs of lasting damage when he made his return at Newbury, last month.
He ran a fair race that day - travelling nicely to the home straight, when a lack of peak fitness seemed to catch him out.
The handicapper has dropped him 3lb for that run - but he is still on a mark of 147, which is high.
He may be up to defying it - but this is a tough race as he’s in against some potential improvers…
One for Rosie and Severano are the 2 obvious ones - with the last named looking particularly dangerous.
He’s still a novice - but he’s an experienced one - and a talented one.
I suspect his mark of 134, under-estimates him and he looks the most likely race winner, to me.
Now look at Me and Dorking Boy are other potential dangers, in a race which is likely to throw up more than its fair share of future winners.
2:25
I think it is worth taking a risk on Indy Five in this.
With recent form figures of F0PP, the case form him doesn’t stand out - but if you delve a little deeper, it’s not hard to make…
Prior that uninspiring run, his form figures read 1F12 - and more than that, they had some real substance to them.
The second place, was behind subsequent Scottish National winner, Takingrisks.
Indy Five ran him to 2 lengths, with the winner running from a mark 20lb lower than he is currently rated.
Indy Five on the other hand, was running from a mark 14lb higher than the one he races off today.
If the 2 of them met now, Takingrisks would be 34lb worse off for a 2 length victory !
Ofcourse, weights and distances don’t tell all - the other important factor is the form of the horse.
The suggestion is that Indy Five is right out of form - but I’m not convinced that is the case.
Last time, he travelled with real purpose at Wincanton - despite an SP of 50/1 - only weakening out of things, after the home turn.
If that run was needed (which may well have been the case), then I can see him going very close today.
He won over todays course, 2 seasons ago - and on soft ground. That was also off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
In short, if he’s back to form, he could easily win this - and that’s not often something you can say about a 20/1 shot !
3:00
£25K for winning a grade 1 race seems pretty poor - but that’s the first prize on offer for this race.
In fairness, it’s still attracted a decent field - I guess the prestige helps with that.
Thyme Hill heads the market - and he strikes me as by far the most likely winner.
He finished third in a red hot edition of the Champion bumper, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and has made a seamless switch to hurdles.
He won the grade 2 Persian War hurdle on his seasonal debut: and followed that up by winning another grade 2 event at the Cheltenham November meeting.
On each occasion, he was a comfortable victor - and it’s hard to know how good he is.
My guess is that he’s pretty good - and whilst he faces some useful opposition today, I expect them to be dispatched in similar fashion.
The market makes The Cashel Man his chief rival - and whilst the formbook agrees, he hasn’t got the same potential for improvement as the other 3 runners.
Ofcourse, they may simply not be good enough - but I’d still rather take a risk on one of them, if I was going to oppose the favourite.
Eclair Surf is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - though the market is likely to gives clues as to whether any of them will be good enough.
Without that knowledge, I’d have to side with the favourite.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Kateson in this.
I tipped him last season, when he was beaten at Aintree - but I don’t think he handled the quick ground that day.
He really wants cut - and granted those conditions, it strikes me that he will prove himself much better than his current rating of 138.
Certainly, if you look at his hurdle form of last season, you don’t see a 138 rated horse.
He ran a close third in the Challow hurlde on this card 12 months ago, and was surrounded by horses who are all now rated in the 150s.
That’s more how I view him - but a series of runs on unsuitable ground have resulted in him being rated significantly lower.
In fairness, he did get soft ground on his most recent run - when making his chasing debut at Exeter.
He was beaten that day - but I suspect that was because his jockey committed him too early.
He looked by far the best horse in the race - but was worried out of things close home, by a real battler.
I would hope that connections will have learnt from that and he will be delivered later this afternoon.
In truth, he does face some potentially decent rivals today, so he will need to be near the top of his game.
Morning Vicar is a definite danger on his chasing debut.
He too could be very well handicapped - and he has been very well backed !
Down the Highway is the other one that particularly interests me.
I tipped him last time when he disappointed a Chepstow - though it later transpired that he hurt himself stepping on his shoe.
If you ignore that run, he is over-priced at 12/1.
Leopardstown
2:00
It feels a little strange for Apples Jade not to be a short priced fav for a race of this nature…
For so long, she has dominated these kind of races - certainly in the first half of the season - but her star appears to be on the wane…
It all started to go wrong in last seasons Champion hurdle.
She was sent off a short priced fav for that race - but ran really disappointingly.
She bounced back at Aintree - where although she was beaten, she showed more of her old zest. However that was the last time we saw her sparkle…
Another disappointing run at Punchestown has been followed by 2 below par efforts this season.
Simply, she doesn’t look the horse she once was.
Connections reach for cheek pieces today - but it looks to be more in hope, than expectation…
Assuming she continues in the doldrums, then this race looks between the Willie Mullins duo: Penhill and Barcardys.
Paul Townend has plumped for the latter - and that probably explains why he is favourite.
Penhill is the slightly better horse according to official ratings - and is also the more likely to be suited by the 3 mile trip.
I would find it hard to choose between the pair - so at odds of 7/2, would have to go with Penhill.
In truth though, this is probably a watching race…
3:10
It strikes me that Anibale Fly is seriously over-priced in this race.
To some extent, I can understand why.
He’s 9 years old - and up against some younger, improving horses, who have already shown top class form.
He also finished last on his seasonal debut (miles behind Presenting Percy) - and prior to that, had run in a handicap (admittedly it was the Grand National - but all the same !).
However, it is also possible to view him far more positively…
He has been placed in the last 2 runnings of the Cheltenham Gold cup - and on those pieces of form he holds both Presenting Percy and Road to Respect (the second and third favs in todays race).
He also hacked up in the Paddy Power chase, 2 years ago - showing that todays course and distance are perfect for him.
However, the real key to Anibale Fly, is soft ground.
Given soft ground, he is more than capable of mixing it with the best of them, over 3 miles.
And soft ground is precisely what he will get this afternoon.
In fact, watching the racing at Leopardstown yesterday, I was surprised at just how soft it appeared to be riding.
If this turns into a war of attrition, then it will suit Anibale fly perfectly - and with Monalee and Kemboy in the race, that has to be a possibility.
If he returns in peak form, then Kemboy is clearly the one to beat - but I wouldn’t want to take 7/4 on a seasonal debutante in a race of this nature.
Presenting Percy is the other one I fear - though he still has to prove he is back to his best.
I reckon a peak form Anibale Fly can deal with the rest - so lets just hope the 2 big guns aren’t firing on all cylinders !
Limerick
2:50
I wouldn’t ordinarily tip at one of the minor meetings - but this is a big race, so hopefully it will work OK.
I was slightly fearful of Redhotfillypeppers,when I tipped Chris’s Dream in the Troytown, back in November.
Consequently, I kept quite a close eye on her throughout the race - and she travelled really well.
However, she was ultimately found out, either by the trip - or by a lack of fitness - and she ended up a well beaten fifth.
In fairness, that as still a very good run.
The Troytown is a top handicap - and Fitzhenry and Winter Escape, 2 of the horse who ran well in that race, franked the form by also running well in yesterdays Paddy Power chase.
The Paddy Power winner, Roaring Bull, was well behind that day - but I suspect he showed much improved form yesterday !
I don’t think Redhotfillypeppers will have to improve very much at all, to take this.
Her form from last season, suggests that she is competitively handicapped on a mark of 130 - though she is still young enough to be open to improvement.
I also like the fact that she is Willie Mullins sole runner in the race.
I’m sure his focus is currently on Leopardstown - but he is still the man to beat in races like this.
Of the others, the Shady Operator is definitely worth a mention.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, before disappointing last time, in the Troytown.
He sports first time blinkers today - and if they liven him up, he could be capable of outrunning his odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 1:15 Chozen 0.5pt win 16/1
Newb 2:25 Indy Five 0.5pt win 20/1
Newb 3:35 Kateson 1pt win 11/2
Leop 3:10 Anibale Fly 0.5pt win 25/1
Lim 2:50 Redhotfillypeppers 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Newb 1:50 Servano (O )
Newb 3:00 Thyme Hill (P )
Leop 2:00 Penhill (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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