Daily write-up - Dec 14th

It’s day 2 of the International meeting at Cheltenham - whilst there are supporting cards at Doncaster, Hereford and Fairyhouse.

The going description was changed at Cheltenham yesterday afternoon from ‘good to soft - soft in places’ to ‘soft - good to soft in places’ - yet it actually rode faster than I expected (maybe that’s always the case, when you are picking winners :) )

Certainly, I would consider it no worse than decent winter ground - and with a dry night and just a few minor showers forecast for this morning, then I would expect more of the same, this afternoon.

Once again, they put on a really good card - with plenty of variety and plenty of quality - finding horses to back, wasn’t hard !

That wasn’t the case at the supporting meetings (which may not be a bad thing !).
The fields for the main races at Doncaster, have cut up badly. As a consequence, I’ve swerved them all.

Hereford stage some fair races - but like Doncaster, they have been hit by small fields - it’s also easy enough to give that a miss.
Similarly, there’s nothing of interest at Fairyhouse - though this time the issue is with quality, rather than the number of runners.

As a consequence, the focus is very much on Cheltenham (though I’ve also covered the main races on the Doncaster card)

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day - and I quite like them !

Here’s the rationale - along with my thoughts on the days other big races.


Cheltenham

12:10

The card starts with a juvenile hurdle, for which Botox Has has been installed a short priced favourite.
He finished second last time, to Allmankind: with yesterdays winner, Repetitio, back in third.
As a result of that, he was given a mark of 132 - which looks about right - and sets a fair level.
The question will be, whether any of todays opponents can surpass that…
In truth, that’s hard to know, because most of them are unexposed, potential improvers (as you would expect, in this kind of race).
Langer Dan, Tremwedge and Group Stage, all have chances - but all looked price about right.
Of the 3, I would be most drawn to Tremwedge.
He’s been sent over from Ireland, by his low-key, but very competent trainer (Ellmarie Holden).
He ran a good third to a couple of decent Joseph O’Brien trained runners last time - and whilst it’s impossible to quantify the form, I suspect either of those horses would be odds on to win this particular race !
The booking of Richard Johnson is eye catching - and if I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with him.
The other one that interests me, in the Mick Easterby trained, Elysian Flame.
He is very useful on the flat - and it’s potentially significant that the ultra shrewd Easterby, has sent him to Cheltenham for his hurdling debut.
It’s a big ask to win a race of this nature on debut - but if he comes in for significant market support, then I suggest taking the hint !

12:45

There are only 7 runners in this - and realistically, only 4 have a chance of winning - but it’s still a fascinating contest…
Good Boy Bobby has been installed favourite, on the back of 2 good runs over fences.
He ran a big race when second on his chasing debut at Carlisle - and was a good winner next time, when heavily odds on at Wetherby.
He’s held in high regard by the Twiston Davies’ - and I’m sure he’ll go close today - but this is a very decent race…
In receipt of 6lb, I think Mister Fisher is the one to beat.
He had some very decent form over hurdles last season - despite not looking the finished article.
He made his chasing debut at Warwick last month - and even on unsuitably soft  ground, he still managed to bustle up Torpillo (who was sent off fav for a grade 1 chase, last Saturday).
With that experience under his belt - and on a quicker surface, I think he will be hard to beat today (even though he is unproven over the 2m4f trip).
Champagne Platinum is the third one of particular interest.
Like Mister Fisher, he is trained by Nicky Henderson - though he is a bit harder to get a handle on.
He was well thought of last year - and will be making his chasing debut this afternoon.
He could, as they say, be anything…
Beakstown is the final one to note. He’s already run twice over fences - and placed on both occasions.
I would expect him to run his race again today - and whilst he might again place, I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to win.
Mister Fisher is the one I fancy most - but Champagne Platinum is also quite interesting at a price (around 4/1).

1:20

This is a relatively weak race for a big Saturday handicap at Cheltenham, and I think it’s worth taking a chance on Eamon an Cnoic.
He’s an ‘enigmatic’ character - and based on his last run at Newbury, you wouldn’t go near him - but I’m hoping he’ll put in a much improved display this afternoon !
Certainly, if he can return to the form he showed in the spring, when finishing a close up fourth in the Festival Plate, he’ll have every chance this afternoon.
That was over 2m4f - but he is also effective over 2 miles, as he’d shown on his previous outing, when beating Capeland at Chepstow.
That one is now rated 10lb higher, so to beat him by over 3 lengths, with the third horse a further 5 lengths back, rates as decent form.
Eamon an Cnoic gets to run off a mark just 5lb higher today - and 2lb lower than when he ran at the festival.
Simply, he is a well handicapped horse.
The key is getting him to perform to his best, which is why the fitting of first time blinkers is an interesting move.
The horse is clearly a bit of a thinker - and it strikes me as significant that he put in a much improved performance when cheek pieces were first utilised (he’s worn those on all of his recent runs).
If the blinkers have the desired effect today, then I think he will be hard to beat.
In terms of his opponents, then most of them look beatable.
Destrier sets the standard - but there doesn’t appear to be a lot of margin in a rating of 151 - and it’s a similar story with Ballywood.
If Eamon doesn’t bounces back, then they are likely to dominate - but if he does, they will have their work cut out to beat him.

1:55

I’m pretty keen on Good man Pat in this.
It strikes me that he’s got the perfect profile for the race, as a progressive second season chaser - and granted luck in running, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go very close.
He’s always looked a horse capable of bagging a big handicap - and he was sent off at quite a short price for the Close Brothers handicap on opening day of last seasons festival.
He disappointed in that race - but apparently suffered from sore shins last season, and Alan King is now optimistic that he’s grown out of that condition.
He also disappointed on his final outing of last season - but performed much better of his seasonal debut, at Ascot last month.
That was over 3 miles - and he appeared not to quite stay the trip - but he was still in with every chance, turning for home.
Cut back half a mile in distance today - and with that run under his belt - he should be ready to put in a huge performance.
As you’d expect with a big Saturday handicap, there are plenty of other who can be given a chance.
Warthog is the next one on my list, following his fine third in the Paddy Power Gold cup at the November meeting.
He’s a natural front runner - which his often a good thing in races like this (as you keep out of trouble) - though the presence of Knocknanuss, may mean that he ends up sitting just behind the leader, this afternoon.
I’d give Knocknanuss a chance as well - though making all in a race of this nature- and with unproven stamina - is a big ask.
Not that Fuisse is another that interests me. There is a fair amount of speculation involved with him - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him putting in a career best today, and he may be worth a small (unofficial) saver.
The final one worthy of mention, is Clondaw Castle.
He was an eye catcher last time - and does have a chance this afternoon.
That said, I would prefer to see him running over 2 miles, as I’m not completely convinced about his stamina for the extra 4 furlongs.

2:30

This isn’t a race which I have a strong view on - in truth, I’d be surprised if it’s a race which many people have a strong view on !
Champagne Well heads the market - and is the easiest runner to get a handle on.
His form is decent - but I’d be a little disappointed if there wasn’t something in the race, better than him.
Which one it might be, however, is anybodys guess !
My guess would be Kiltealy Briggs - but it is a guess - and based on very little evidence (as very little evidence exists !).
That said, the one that potentially interests me most, is Saint Xavier.
He has his first run for owner David Maxwell, having been bought from France.
He was pretty useful over there - finishing fourth in a grade 1 chase.
The word is that he will need the run - and wants soft ground.
Ofcourse that may well be true - but if he comes in for significant market support, I suggest taking the hint - because he probably has the form to win this…

3:05

This race looks a fair bit more open than the early market suggested - and I think it is worth taking a small chance on Gumball, at a big price.
Having shown a good level of ability as a juvenile, he disappointed last season.
That’s not unusual for young horses, who find the step up to open company a bit too much.
However, he recaptured his form on the flat in the spring - and has looked a much improved horse, since returning to hurdles at Market Rasen in September.
He only finished third that day - but followed up that run by winning at Ascot and running an honourable second in the Greatwood hurdle at the November meeting.
That was a particularly big effort - and showed him tactically versatile, as he slotted in behind the leaders (he had previously always front run).
His mark was raised to 152 for that run - which puts him right in the mix for todays race.
Call me Lord is the highest rated runner in todays field (on 160) - and in receipt of weight from most of his rivals, he is the one to beat.
However, he would prefer softer ground and a longer trip - and there are doubts about him running left handed.
He would be hard to support at a short price.
After him, Ch’tibello is the next highest rated - on 157.
he has been targeted at the race - and I would expect him to go very well - but the fact is, he’s only rated 5lb superior to Gumball.
More than that, Gumball is on an upward curve and at the peak of his game.
In truth, most of the runners can be given a chance of sorts - but equally, a rock solid case can be made for non of them.
Gumball definitely has a chance - and I suspect his chance is a fair bit better than that suggested by the 20/1, which was on offer early…

3:40

This appears to be a very open race, but I think it will take a good one to beat Mega Yates…
She caught my eye on her seasonal debut at Haydock, in a particularly strong handicap (won by Stoney Mountain).
She raced in the front rank that day - and was one of 3 horses who kicked for home, rounding the final bend.
Her effort didn’t last long - but she probably needed the run - and she may not have stayed the 3 mile trip.
She is cut back half a mile today - and with the outing under her belt, I would expect her to run very well.
That’s certainly been the case with most of Ruth Jeffersons horses this year - with the majority showing significant improvement on their second run.
Quite pleasingly, the handicapper didn’t see it the same way - as he dropped her mark by 3lbs…
Her form from last season, suggests that she is now quite well handicapped - and that’s ignoring the potential improvement (I suspect she could rate a fair bit higher).
All this said, this is a hot race.
Dame de Compagnie heads the market - and that’s justified, based both on her form from last season and her run in the Greatwood (she finished fifth).
Lust for Glory, Indefatigable and Queens Cave, are 3 more who should run very well: whilst there are also 2 or 3 potentially lively outsiders (Vision du Puy and Midnightreferendum, amongst them).
However, non of them appeal more than Mega Yates - and she’s another who I expect to run a really big race.


Doncaster

2:10

There is a disappointing turn out for all of the Doncaster races which are on terrestrial TV - and just 3 go to post for this…
That said, there are 3 very useful animals - so provided they all get round (never guaranteed in a novice chase !), it could still be a good race.
Sam Spinner and Windsor Avenue, dominate the market.
The former was a top class hurdler (second in last season world hurdle); whilst the latter has been really impressive in winning his 2 novice chases this season.
I wouldn’t want to support Sam Spinner in a small field, as he lacks tactical pace (if that’s how the race works out).
I guess that means I think Windsor Avenue is the most likely winner - and I do.
However, I wouldn’t back at odds on in a 3 runner chase - so if I was to get involved, it would be with the outsider, Aye Right.
He definitely has a chance - even ignoring the ‘luck’ element (which could make the race a lottery).
At 10/1, he could be worth a small play - if you need to get involved !

2:45

I’ve little idea what will win this.
The market is keen on French import, Tombee du Ciel, who makes his debut for Nicky Henderson.
He has decent form in France - and could easily outclass his rivals.
Certainly non of the others particularly grab me - but I won’t be backing him at odds of 6/4.
Just a watching race, for me…

3:20

This is also likely to be a watching race - but I’ll be a bit more interested in watching Cloth Cap…
He was an eye catcher on his first run of the season - and ran really well, next time at Ascot (on unsuitably soft ground)
The ground is soft again today - but this is a much weaker race (despite a value of £25K !).
Certainly, I couldn’t back any of his rivals to beat him - but equally, I couldn’t back him, at a shade of odds on.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips
Chel 1:20 Eamon an Cnoic 0.5pt win 8/1
Chel  1:55 Good man Pat 1pt win 7/1
Chel 3:05 Gumball 0.5pt win 22/1
Chel 3:40 Mega Yates 1pt win 9/1

Mentions
Chel 12:10 Tremwedge (S )
Chel 12:45 Mister Fisher (P )
Chel 2:30 Saint Xavier (C )
Donc 2:10 Aye Right (S )
Donc 3:20 Cloth Cap (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions