The meeting scheduled for Leicester, was abandoned on Friday, due to a waterlogged track.
Global warming has a lot to answer for !
As a consequence, there is just the one NH meeting taking place today - at Fairyhouse in Ireland.
On the plus side, it’s a tremendous card - with 3 Grade 1 events - and a couple of competitive handicaps.
I’ve no doubt it will be a fascinating watch - and there will be plenty of pointers for the season ahead - however, betting opportunities are thin on the ground.
The graded races all have relatively small fields - and can be quickly narrowed down to 2 or 3 runners: whilst the handicaps are complete minefields - which are best solved with the aid of a pin, or a crystal ball !
No tips today then…
Elsewhere, it’s day 1 of the Naps competition in the forum.
I mentioned it yesterday - and Francis has been busy drumming up interest, via a series of witty posts :)
Just to re-iterate: it’s free to enter - and there is a £100 first prize (plus consolation prizes if you end the month in profit).
It’s an ego-less environment - though there tends to be a bit of banter, when things hot up, near the end !
Chris, Peter and Neil are likely to use it to showcase the best of their system bets: whilst Paul tends to use it to demonstrate his uncanny ability to see obscure events in the future !
I use it to offer my best bets on midweek days - and the best Mention on tipping days.
The bottom line is, even if you don’t participate, there are likely to be some Naps posted, which are worth following.
Here’s a link to the sub- forum:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/December-Naps-Competition-f18113.html
Good luck to everyone who does get involved.
Here’s my thoughts on the days races at Fairyhouse…
Fairyhouse
12:30
Based on form, this looks a 2 horse race, between the Joseph O’Brien trained runners - Cerberus and A Wave of the Sea.
They met at Punchestown in October and A Wave of the Sea narrowly came out on top.
However, Cerberus was making his hurdling debut that day - and is 3lb better off at the weights, this afternoon.
The book says Cerberus should take his revenge - though I suspect the betting will provide more accurate advice !
Saint D’Oroux is third favourite - but she was trounced by A Wave of the Sea, at Down Royal, last month.
She was sent off favourite that day, so it was a disappointing run. She may well show it all wrong - but if she is to turn round a 24 length defeat, then she will need to !
If I was to get involved with the race, then I’d be more inclined to have a small EW play on Tremwedge.
He showed distinct promise on his hurdling debut at Punchestown a fortnight ago - and on a line through the winner of that race, should finish ahead of Dinard Rose.
A general price of 33/1, holds some appeal (EW)
1:00
This is the first of 3 cracking Grade 1 races on the card.
Envoi Allen is a short price to maintain his unbeaten record - and whilst he holds minimal appeal at odds of 4/6, I suspect he will win.
He won the Championship bumper at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and made a wining transition to hurdles, when taking a maiden event at Down Royal, a month ago.
Todays contest is likely to be much more of a test for him - but the horse seems to have everything: speed, stamina and a will to win.
It'll take a very good one to beat him - and whilst a number of his rivals look like they could be decent, I’ll be a little surprised if any of them are quite good enough…
His stablemate, Abracadabras, is second favourite for the race.
He too was a very useful bumper horse - and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
However, Envoi Allen beat him twice in bumpers - and I suspect it will be the same again today.
I actually think that Midnight Run may turn out to be the biggest danger to Envoi Allen.
Again, Envoi Allen holds a verdict over him, from a Navan bumper, a year ago - but Midnight Run has won his 2 subsequent races and looked very good on both occasions.
He has a near 5 length gap to close - and whilst he might not be quite up to doing that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get closer today.
Non of the other runners can be completely dismissed - but Envoi Allen sets such a high standard, it will be surprising if any of them are good enough to beat him.
1:30
The previous race was good - but this one is even better !
Samcro v Fakir D’Oudairies - and it’s not even just a match !
I’m a massive fan of Fakir D’oudairies - and all things being equal, would be pretty keen on his chance in this.
The only thing is, Gordon Elliot is back talking up Samcro.
He did the same in the horses novice season - and Samcro did look like the second coming - so it’s hard not to take notice…
Obviously, he was massively disappointing last season - but apparently he had lots of issues and they have now all been cleared up.
If he is back to his brilliant best, then Fakir will need to be some horse to beat him.
In fairness, I do think that Fakir is some horse - and I doubt there will be many better novice chasers this season - but I’m not prepared to support him at 11/8 against Samcro.
And that’s ignoring 2 other pretty serious rivals !
Ronald Pump has been a massive improver this year - and whilst I don’t think he will be quite good enough to beat the big 2, it’s impossible to say categorically.
Burrows Saint is making his seasonal debut, but he hacked up in the Irish National on his most recent start in Ireland.
Todays trip of 2m4f should be too short for him - but there can be little doubting his class.
Ultimately, it is likely to be a shoot out between Samcro and Fakir D’oudaireies.
I can’t see any appeal in backing either one of them to win the race - but whoever comes out on top, is likely to be a strong favourite for the JLT at the Cheltenham festival.
Samcro is currently 7/1 for that race - with Fakir 16/1.
Fakir is second favourite for the Arkle - but I think he is more likely to run in the longer race.
If there is a bet to be had today, it is Fakir at 16/1 for the JLT (with Ladbrokes, Coral & B365)
2:05
This long distance chase provides a break from the grade 1 action - and whilst it has a shape more suitable for betting, I couldn’t find anything in it that I wanted to tip.
4 of todays runners met last time out in the Cork National.
The Gatekeeper came out on top that day - but he’s not exactly consistent and I won’t be hugely surprised if he doesn’t confirm the form.
Glorious Galway finished second - and he ran a massive race.
He’s 4lb out of the handicap today, so strictly on the book, may struggle to reverse the form (or indeed, confirm it with Aherlow).
However, he’s only 7 - and relatively unexposed - so it wouldn’t surprise me if he did best of the trio.
The only thing about him, is that he should be held on form by Wrong Direction.
Both of them were competing in Hunter chases last year - and Wrong Direction looked to have his measure, when falling at the second last at Limerick, in December.
Wrong Direction is a couple of years older than Glorious Galway - but has only run twice under rules, so literally could be anything.
There’s too much guesswork required to support either one with confidence - but I do prefer their claims to those of the more exposed runners in the field.
Favourite, Ask Susan, is less exposed than most - and is trained by Willie Mullins.
She clearly has a chance - but she looks under-priced at 4/1.
Whilst Killer Miller is the other one of significant interest.
He’s had all sorts of injury problems and is very lightly raced for his age. However, he did threaten to be much better than his current mark of 127, and showed some promise on his return at Punchestown, a fortnight ago.
2:40
The final grade 1 event on the card, is just as fascinating as the 2 that precede it.
Again, of the 6 runners, only 3 can seriously be considered - but it is quite a trio…
The unbeaten Honeysuckle is favourite for the race.
She won a grade 1 mares race at last seasons Punchestown festival - and looked as good as ever, when making a winning reappearance at Fairyhouse last month.
The only issue with her, is that she’s not really beaten anything of substance.
Her official handicap mark of 150, is 12lb shy of Apples Jade - so off level weights today, she has it all to do (according to the book).
Only time will tell whether she is up to the task - assuming Apples Jade runs up to her rating…
That didn’t last time, when Apples Jade made her seasonal debut at Navan - and there are growing question marks over her.
At her peak, she would be odds on to take todays contest - but there is a possibility her best days are behind her.
Bacardys beat her out of sight at Navan - and whilst he was possibly flattered by the result, there is little doubt he is capable of top class form.
He too has been plagued by issues throughout his career - but he looked back to his best last time.
On official ratings, he has the same chance as Honeysuckle (allowing for the mares allowance), so with the question marks over Apples Jade, he looks the best bet in the race, at 7/2.
Non of the 3 other runners can be totally written off - but it will be a little surprising if the race isn’t won by one of the principals.
3:10
Races like this, are nearly impossible to solve.
15 runners: 5 of which are trained by Willie Mullins - and 5 owned by J P McManus (2 of whom, have ticks in both boxes !).
Trying to figure out what is going on with them all, is very difficult.
Janidil (Mullins and JP) is the race favourite. He won on his handicap debut last time - but has to race off a mark 10lb higher this afternoon.
He may be up to the job - or he may not. The market will likely advise.
Ciel de Neige is the other Mullins/JP horse.
He is making his seasonal debut, having finished third in last seasons Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He could literally be anything - and again, the market is likely to advise on expectations…
Willie trains the first 3 in the betting, with Buildmeupbuttercup splitting the JP pair.
On hurdles form, she has little chance - but she has been much improved on the flat this summer and if she translates that improvement to her hurdling, she could be hard to beat…
Outside of the market leaders, there are plenty of others for whom cases can be made.
I certainly won't be getting heavily involved with the race, but I might have a small play on La Sorelita (yet another runner for Willie !).
She caught my eye last time at Down Royal - and could be worth a tiny play at around 25/1.
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Tips
None
Mentions
Fair 12:30 Tremwedge (EW)
Fair 1:00 Midnight Run (w/o Envoi Allen)
Fair 1:30 Fakir D’oudairies (O )
Fair 2:05 Wrong Direction (S )
Fair 2:40 Bacardys (O )
Fair 3:10 La Sorelita (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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