It’s the final day of the festivals at the 2 Irish courses - and that signals the end of the festive racing period.
It’s been 4 very intense days - and I have to admit that I’m looking forward to seeing a bit of daylight !
I was hopeful that today might provide some decent opportunities - but they aren’t quite as many as I expected !
Aside from a good quality race at Limerick, there is little of interest, either there - or at Kelso.
Leopardstown host a couple of grade 1 events - but they are contested by small fields and have short priced favourites.
The best racing from a betting perspective, takes place at Doncaster - and I’d got fancies in a few of the races - though tipping them was a different matter !
I really couldn’t believe how weak the markets were - even at 10:30…
I eventually decided to take a risk and issue a couple of tips regardless.
I think that both races look sufficiently competitive for the the prices not to crash completely - though I guess time will tell on that score !
Anyway, here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other big races at both Doncaster and Leopardstown.
Doncaster
12:25
I want to take a chance on Lust for Glory in this.
She is making her fencing debut under rules - but won her only PTP and has apparently schooled well over the bigger obstacles, at home.
Her most recent run was in a very strong mares race at Cheltenham.
She was sent off at just 5/1 for that race - but pulled too hard and weakened late on.
The soft ground probably didn’t suit her that day either - so on a quicker surface, and over half a mile less, I would be far more optimistic about her getting home.
It probably also helps her chances that Nico de Boinville takes over in the saddle from Sam Waley-Cohen (I’ve nothing against the latter - but he’s unlikely to have the strength of De Boinville).
I think it will also help her chances that Maire Banrigh is in the race.
She is a confirmed front runner and so is likely to set a strong pace which should help Lust for Glory.
In fairness, this is quite an open race.
There may only be 5 runners, but all 5 look to have a chance.
That said, I think Lust for Glory could be a fair bit better than her current rating - so in conditions which should suit her well, I think she is worth supporting.
1:35
As mares race go, they don’t come much better than this !
There are just 7 runners - and only 4 (5 at a push), have a chance of winning - but it’s still a cracking contest.
Of the ‘big 4’ then Casablanca Mix is the one I like least.
She is actually the highest rated in the field - but she acquired that rating during the summer, and I’m always suspicious when that happens (the races aren't as strong).
She is held on form by Happy Diva, from a race at Huntingdon last season - and I see little reason why it should be reversed this afternoon.
Happy Diva is the next one I would eliminate - though not with huge conviction !
She did us a massive favour when winning the Paddy Power chase last time - but I just feel that she needs a bit more of a stamina test than she is likely to get this afternoon, on the relatively quick ground (probably !).
Lady Buttons won the corresponding race last season - and she has every chance of following up this afternoon.
She is a truly likeable mare - talented and consistent - and it will take a good one to beat her.
The problem for her, is that La Bague au Roi is a good one - a very good one !
Her form from last season stands up to the closest scrutiny - and whilst she disappointed on her seasonal debut at Wetherby, she bounced back last time at Huntingdon.
I expect Dickie to try and make all on her - and I just think that she may prove a bit too good for her rivals to pass.
This is likely to be a really tight race - so any jumping errors or misjudgement of pace, could prove crucial.
As a consequence, I can’t consider supporting her at 5/2 (my minimum target price would be 7/2).
Dalial du Seuil os the other one to briefly consider.
She’s very hard to quantify - but will need to be exceptional if she is to get win.
Ultimately, its just not a race I feel I can play in.
I like La Bague au Roi best - but would want a bigger price to encourage me to risk getting involved.
2:45
Bob Mahler caught my eye last time - and I think he is worth supporting in this.
Following a couple of poor runs: one at the back of last season - and first time out this season, he bounced back to form last time, in a better class race than todays, at Haydock.
He was no match for the winner, Crievehill that day - but he showed up well to the home turn and it very much looked as if he was returning to form.
And if he’s back in the form he showed when winning at Newbury and Cheltenham last spring, then I think he’s going to be hard to beat today.
In fact, on the back of his Cheltenham win, connections were talking about a tilt at the Ladbroke trophy (formerly the Hennessey) - and if he could have been competitive in that, then a race of todays nature should be well within his compass.
Certainly he’s always been considered a decent horse - so a rating of 135 could easily under-estimate him.
He also only 7 years old - so there is still time for him to improve.
In terms of his opponents today, then nothing really stands out.
Spiders Bite looks the most dangerous - with a run under his belt and Dickie on board; whilst I could also give half chance to 2 or 3 others.
That said, I like Bob Mahler best - and at odds of 11/2, think he is worth siding with.
Leopardstown
1:55
The betting suggests that this should rest between Battleoverodyen and Minella Indo - and that’s probably how it will work out.
Both were top class novice hurdlers last season: the former being sent off a short priced favourite for the Ballymore properties hurdle at the Cheltenham festival (in which disappointed); whilst the latter won the Albert Bartlett hurdle (at a massive price !).
They have switched their attention to fences this season, and Battleofdoyen is unbeaten in 2 runs; whilst Minella Indo finished a creditable second to Laurina, over an unsuitably short trip.
It’s very hard to choose between the pair this afternoon, and the difference is likely to come from jumping, race pace - or ability to act on the ground (3 variables which we have limited knowledge of, in advance of the race).
If forced off the fence, I would side with Minella Indo - but I won’t be backing him, at odds of 2/1.
In truth, you couldn’t be completely confident that it will just be a 2 horse race.
Both Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, have form close enough to the principals, to make them dangerous; whilst the 2 outsiders have form close enough to Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, to almost make any result a possibility !
Time to move on…
2:30
I was hoping to take a risk on Sharjah in this - but I was hoping for a big price !
He’s the lesser fancied stablemate of favourite, Klassical Dreamer - and he finished a fair way behind that one when both disappointed on their seasonal debuts at Punchestown, last month.
Prior to that race, Klassical Dreamer was the favourite for the Champion hurdle - but that set back saw him drift out a few points.
The confidence now seems back in him (partly due to a lack of credible opponents in the Champion) - and he is a short priced favourite for this.
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did win today - and reclaimed favourite for the Champion - but equally, it wouldn't surprise me if he were beaten.
My hope was that the market would significantly side with him - and I guess that may still happen - but it’s not done yet !
Sharjah at 6/1 or better, would be a tip - Sharjah at 5/1, is right on the cusp…
That’s partly because this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Coeur Sublime was massively impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Down Royal and has been targeted a this race.
I expected him to be priced up shorter than the currnet 4/1.
I also couldn’t totally dismiss Petit Mouchoir. He finished ahead of both Klassical Dream and Sharjah, last time - though did have a fitness advantage.
I don’t really fancy Darasso , as I think he needs softer ground - but equally, I acknowledge that he can’t be completely dismissed.
Ultimately, I think this is just too hard a race to get involved with early.
Sharjah is the one I’m most inclined to side with - but I’m not sufficiently keen to take the 9/2 currently on offer…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Donc 12:25 Lust for Glory 1pt win 5/1
Donc 2:45 Bob Mahler 1pt win 11/2
Mentions
Donc 1:35 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 1:55 Minella Indo (O )
Leop 2:30 Sharjah (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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