There may not be quite as many meetings as yesterday - but the dip in quality is only marginal !
Chepstow host the main race of the day: the Welsh Grand National - supported by the Grade 1 Finale juvenile hurdle.
It’s a similar situation at Leopardstown, where the Paddy Power chase is the feature event on the card - supported by 2 Grade 1 contests !
Kempton has to play third fiddle - as it can only offer a couple of Grade 2 events !
There are some fair races taking place at both Wetherby and Limerick - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and 3 meetings is more than enough for me to try and get my head round !
In terms of bets/tips, then there are probably more opportunities today than there were yesterday.
That said, with such competitive racing, finding winners is never going to be easy.
I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day (the fifth was a NR).
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on most of the days other big races…
Kempton
1:20
I instinctively feel that Fanion Destruval should be taken on in this.
He was a massively impressive winner on his UK debut for Venetia, at Newbury last month - but that was in a modest 0-140 handicap.
He shoots up to Grade 2 company this afternoon - and whilst he may be up to the task, I wouldn’t be remotely interested in him at odds of 11/8.
The problem, is figuring out what to take him on with.
On better ground, I would be very keen on Global Citizen - but I’m far from convinced that he will enjoy the borderline heavy conditions.
Conditions will be no issue for Grand Sancy - and he performed quite well on his fencing debut in the grade 1 event at Sandown.
Assuming he builds on that, he will take a bit of beating.
Al Dancer is the other one worthy of consideration.
He’s probably the most solid option - but he has to carry a 3lb penalty and that makes him vulnerable.
On balance, I feel that Grand Sancy is probably the best bet.
I felt that a 5/1 early this morning, there was only a bit of value in his price - but a late drift to 6/1, has enticed me in !
Let’s hope that proves to be a good decision !
1:55
I’m struggling to see much of an angle into this race.
Culture de Sivola won the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and looks the one to beat, off a mark just 5lb higher this afternoon.
Unlike many of her rivals, she will have no issue with either the ground or the trip - and she looks the one to beat.
However, she’s not an overly big mare, so carrying top weight is not ideal: whilst she has been well found in the market.
She tends to hit a flat spot in her races, so my inclination would be to wait for that to happen (about half a mile from home !) - and then look to back her in-running…
Half cases can be made for most of her rivals - but non of them are rock solid.
More than that, the market appears to have them all in roughly the right place.
Time to move on…
2:30
On decent ground, Sceau Royal would very much be the one to beat in this.
He’s a borderline grade 1 performer, who briefly looked like winning the Champion chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
He ended up third in that race - but it still represents a level of form way beyond the capabilities of most of the rivals he faces today.
It also showed that he can handle soft ground - even if it’s not his preferred surface.
A lot will depend this afternoon, on exactly how soft the ground is.
The going description was changed to ‘soft with heavy patches’ yesterday afternoon - and if that’s the case, I think Sceua Royal may struggle.
In that case, Duc des Genievres should be the one to beat - based on official ratings.
He hacked up in last seasons Arkle - however that race did fall apart and he’s been well beaten in 3 subsequent runs.
He gets first time blinkers today, in an attempt to perk him up - and the fact that Willie Mullins sends him over to contest the race, is an interesting move.
All this said, he would be a hard one to support…
With Bun Doran unlikely to appreciate the ground - and Caid du Lin seemingly outclassed, Capeland becomes the most likely race winner.
That seems a little bizarre, as he’s really only a decent handicapper - even if he does seem to have improved recently.
Everything considered, I find this an impossible race to draw a conclusion on.
Sceau Royal should really be different class - but the ground is a great leveller - and if he doesn't handle it, he won’t be winning !
3:05
Looking through this race, I was quite shocked by the number of runners who I felt couldn’t win !
Most are either badly handicapped - or are likely to have an issue with either the ground or the distance (or both !)
The obvious exception is Belami des Pictons - but he’s been installed 9/4 fav and bled on his penultimate outing !
In the circumstances, I felt it was worth taking a risk on Fingerontheswitch - however, his connections have withdrawn him this morning on account of the ground (which I understand - even if I don’t completely agree with !).
In his absence, then Quarenta is probably the most solid option - though he looks quite beatable.
In all probability the race will be won by one of the market principals - with Belami des Pictons the most likely winner, assuming he doesn’t bleed again.
However, I really can’t get involved with him at the available odds.
Chepstow
1:05
Tiquer is a horse that I’ve been monitoring for quite literally years !
The issue with him, is that he’s very fragile - and tends to only make the racecourse, once or twice a season.
The thing about horses like him, is that when they do get to run, connections usually have them spot on.
Tiquer needs a very specific set of conditions: 2m4f and soft ground. Given such conditions, he’s capable of very useful form…
He got those conditions at Newbury in March 2018 - and beat Kayf Adventure by 8 lengths.
That one re-opposes on 3lb better terms today - but the outcome should be the same…
Whilst todays race is a class 2 event, it doesn’t look the strongest.
5 of the 7 runners were pulled up on their most recent outing - and one of the others, hasn’t run for over a year (and would prefer better ground).
As a consequence, Eceparti looks the one to beat.
He’s won his 2 most recent races very easily - though they were class 4 events, so he could find todays opposition a lot tougher (assuming any of them recapture their form !).
Of the others, the Whatwrongwithyou could find the trip too far (he’s a strong travelling 2 miler); whilst Springtown Lake could find it too short (he really wants 3 miles - though may get away with it if conditions are particularly demanding).
In short, there are chinks in the armour of all of the runners - which means that Tiquer is worth a small risk at a decent price.
1:35
Having watched Elysian Flame jump like a hairy goat on his debut at Cheltenham, I really didn’t think I would be tipping him at 13/2 in a grade 1 event next time !
And whilst this isn’t the strongest of races, I still didn’t think that I would be tipping him at 13/2, when he opened up at 14/1 last night !
That seemed a perfectly reasonable price, up against one of the favs for the Triumph hurdle - along with a horse with decent form, sent over from Ireland - but no !
And reality, all the early support has done, is convince me that he has to be tipped !
The horse is trained by Mick Easterby - and there are few shrewder judges in the game.
In truth, it’s little odd that he is pitching the horse into grade 1 company on only it’s second run over hurdles (particularly as it jumped so poorly first time)
The trouble is, I can see the argument…
The horse is very decent on the flat (rated 91) - and he absolutely loves heavy ground.
He may have jumped like a goat at Cheltenham - but he was still only beaten 9 lengths.
If the jumping issues have been resolved - then in ideal conditions, he’s going to run a big race.
More than that, the fav - and second fav - both look vulnerable.
Allmankind is seriously headstrong - and Harry Skelton is going to have to produce some ride, to get him home in what is likely to be energy sapping conditions.
And whilst Cerberus should cope with conditions, A Wave of the Sea hardly advertised his form, with a muted show at Leopardstown yesterday…
Tavis and Maskad can both be given a chance - with the latter quite attractive at a big price.
For the winner though, I’m happy to trust in Mick and Elysian Flame - hopefully they won’t let me down !
2:10
If Acey Milan can repeat the form of his last time out second at Haydock, then he should win this.
That was a huge run - and he was arguably unlucky not to win - mugged late by a fast finisher.
He’s up 4lb for that effort - but this doesn’t look to be as strong a race, and he is very much the one to beat.
That said, the market is fully aware of the situation - and he represents no value at a current price of 15/8.
In fact, he is so short, it is quite tempting to find something to take him on with !
Ask Dillon could be the one on his handicap debut - though stepping up to 3 miles, first time out on heavy Chepstow ground, is quite an ask.
If anyone can ready him though - Fergal can.
Half chances can be given to Clyne, Perfect Man, Evas Oscar and Sykes - but again, the market seems to have them positioned about right.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race.
2:50
Elegant Escape is bidding to win the Welsh National for the second successive year - and despite running from a mark 9lb higher, the market expects him to be successful.
That’s mainly because he ran an eye catching ‘trial’ in the Ladbrokes trophy - and as he’s still only 7, there’s a real possibility that he’s improved since last year.
He definitely has a good chance - but there are a number of quite strong contenders and I wouldn’t want to take 7/2 about anything in the race.
Now McGinty has been my long term fancy for the race - and he’s another with a big chance.
He pushed Santini close at Sandown in November - and on that form, will take all the beating.
He also beat De Rasher Counter at Chepstow last season, form which looks particularly strong now.
Again, the issue with him is the price - 11/2 leaves no room for error.
Yala Enki is the third one of major interest - on his second run for Paul Nichols.
He was trained by Venetia when finishing third in last years renewal - and must have a fair chance of reversing the form with Elegant Escape, on 8lb better terms.
Prime Venture, Potters Corner and Truckers Lodge, are 3 more of potential interest - though all looked priced about right.
Whilst of those at bigger prices, Pop Rockstar is the one that interests me most.
At around 8/1, Yala Enki is just about the best bet in the race - but there is minimal margin in that price.
Leopardstown
1:10
I saw sorely tempted to take a chance on A Plus Tard in this.
I think he’s probably the second best horse in the race: and the one that is probably the best - Chacun pour Soi - is not the most robust of animals.
The issue with A Plus Tard, is that he’s not really a 2 miler - and this race is over 2 miles !
I’ll be a little surprised if he finishes out of the first 3 - but far less surprised if he is beaten.
At an early price of 10/1, with 8 runners in the race (and therefore 3 places), he would have been an EW tip.
However, the price has already been cut to 7/1 - and with the possibility of a NR messing up the place terms, I don’t want to get involved.
Suffice to say, Chacun pour Soi should win - but he does come with risks.
A Plus Tard is a class animal - but he really wants a trip of 2m4f (or further !) and therefore could easily find himself short of pace at a crucial time.
2:55
I want to side with Vieux Morvan in this.
He’s a horse who first came to my attention, when he ran fifth in the corresponding race, 2 years ago.
That was his first run for Joseph O’Brien, having been trained previously in France.
He ran a massive race that day, leading and jumping for fun - until he hit the second last fence.
Ultimately he weakened into fifth place - but I was still keen to be with him next time.
That turned out to be at the Dublin racing festival - and he again ran a massive race to finish second to Last Goodbye.
His next few runs were disappointing, but he then bounced back to form in this race last year, when finishing second to surprise winner Auvergnat.
He was well beaten by the winner - but still finished ahead of Fitzhenry and Any Second Now.
Those 2 re-oppose this afternoon - but on worse terms, they shouldn’t really reverse the form.
Certainly back down to a mark just 1lb higher than a year ago - Vieux Morvan is handicapped to run very well.
Furthermore that doesn’t include the 7lb claim of his jockey, Oakley Brown.
This lad is new onto the scene - but from what I’ve seen so far he looks a real talent - and his 7lb claim is something of a gift.
Ofcouse in a race of this nature, nothing I guaranteed.
Furthermore with Vieux Morvan about to reach 11, he’s unlikely to be improving and therefore vulnerable to one that is.
That said, I expect Joseph O’Brien will have him spot of for this - and I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t run a huge race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chep 1:05 Tiquer 0.5pt win 20/1
Chep 1:35 Elysian Flame 0.75pt win 13/2
Leop 2:55 Vieux Morvan 0.5pt EW 16/1
Kemp 1:20 Grand Sancy 1pt win 6/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Culture de Sivola (P )
Kemp 2:30 Sceau Royal (C )
Kemp 3:05 Belami des Pictons (P )
Chep 2:10 Ask Dillon (C )
Chep 2:50 Yala Enki (O )
Leop 1:10 A Plus Tard (C )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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