Introducing BFHPs

But, before I explain them...

A quick thank you, to everyone who responded to Sundays email.
In truth, it didn’t actually get the response I expected ! (possibly because I didn’t get the wording quite right).

I was simply expecting a few people to ask if they could leave - instead of which, I received an avalanche of support !
It was truly humbling - and made me realise what a great community I’ve managed to build :)

I think/hope I’ve replied to to everyone individually - but suffice to say, my commitment to make the service a success, remains totally undiminished (if anything, it has increased !).

Obviously, I can’t guarantee a flow of winning tips - not only do I need to spot opportunities, but luck always plays a part (and I have no control over that).
However, I will be doing my level best to get the things back on an even keel over the next few weeks…


Anyway, I’ve been giving some thought to how I might be able to handle things slightly differently (to help overcome some of the tipping issues).

As I’ve mentioned previously, I’ve been piloting a method in the forum, whereby I preview races the night before: produce a short-list of horses I’m interested in: and then suggest bets, late morning on the race day.

I like the approach because it is aligned with what I do myself, when I’m betting.
It also has benefits for readers, in that it provides my thoughts early (which can be added to any they have of their own): but only bets late (when bookmakers are more prepared to take bets - and there is greater liquidity on the exchanges).

However, the problem is that there aren’t many suitable races run during the midweek: it is a method best suited to Big Field Handicap Puzzles (BFHP).

Such races tend to be run at the weekend - so I’m going to look to start covering the occasional suitable race, as part of the Main service.

Generally speaking, these are races that I don’t tend to tip in (or at least, shouldn’t really tip in !).
That’s because they are usually minefields - and luck can play a very big part.

The tend to be good quality handicaps, with 16+ runners.
The idea is that I will aim to quarter the field (roughly) - and produce a short-list.
I will then advise bets, on most of the runners on the short list - staked to reflect my confidence/prices available.
Using this method, strike rate should be dramatically improved (at the expense of total winnings) - and the impact of luck, reduced.

There were a few BFHP races that took place last weekend: the hurdle race at Sandown on Saturday, where I fancied Ask Dillon; and the chase at Leopardstown on Sunday, where I tipped Portmore Lough, are 2 that spring readily to mind.


What I therefore intend to do in future, is send out an email for these race(s) the night before - containing a brief race preview and the short-list.

In the write-up, I will then just refer back to the ‘BFHP email’.

After the write-up has been issued, I will suggest a number of bets for the race (using prices available at approx 11:30).

I will aim to stake a nominal 20 units on each race - spread across 5 or 6 horses.

How/if you follow the recommendations, is up to you.
They won’t be official tips - and won’t be included in the TVB P&L.

For those who do want to follow them, my suggestion would be to stake 1pt in total, across the 20 units.

The method will be very well suited to the exchanges, as you will be able to spread the units around - and easily see total liability/win on each of the horses.
Better prices are also likely to be available on the exchanges, for many of the horses.
If you don't use the exchanges, then placing bets via conventional bookmakers will also work fine (it will just be a bit more time consuming).

One possible issue is that I may occasionally decide that I want to tip ‘officially’ in the race.
If that is the case, then I will handle the tip in the usual way (ie. issue at 9:00).
I will still suggest bets in the race (ie. allocate the 20 units) - therefore, in this scenario, you would need to decide which method you wanted to follow…

I’ll post this email in the forum, so if you have any questions or comments, please ask them there (so everyone can benefit).

TVB - constantly evolving and moving forward :)