Daily write-up - Mar 12th (Cheltenham day 3)

Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival.

The action switches to the new course this afternoon - and fresh ground.
There has been a small amount of rain overnight - but I would expect it to be riding a fair bit faster than on the first 2 days.

That said, the new course puts more of an emphasis on stamina (due to its layout) - so the ability to stay a trip, is still required.

Compared to yesterday, todays card has a much better shape for betting - however, this is the point in the week, when my concentration/focus start to really get tested ! (hence me making a slight mess of issuing the tips, this morning !!).

Once again, I’ve not issued many tips - but as with the first 2 days, I’ll be running a live thread in the forum:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-3-td20038.html#a20048

This was well received again, yesterday - and I would expect it to be even better today (as there are more potential opportunities).

Anyway, that’s for later - for now, I’ll offer my early thoughts on the days non-handicap races.


Cheltenham

1:30

The action opens with an absolute cracker: Faugheen v Samcro - the rematch !
2 of the most talked about horses in recent years: the former - because of his achievements - the latter, because of his lack of them !
They clashed at Limerick over Christmas, when Faugheeen came home a convincing winner - and Samcro was a massive disappointment.
Faugheen then followed that up at the Dublin Racing festival, becoming a very rare, 12 year old grade 1 winner.
He really is an admirable horse - but I’ll be a little surprised if this isn’t a step too far for him…
I don’t find it as easy to write off Samro.
Apparently he was wrong at Limerick - and whilst he fell on his previous start at Fariyhouse, I felt he had the beating of Fakir D’Oudaries that day - and that’s top class novice form.
I can see him travelling really well in the race - but when push comes to shove, I do wonder if his jumping will hold up…
Itchy Feet was the original fav for the race (Faugheen has now deposed him) - and he has a very good chance.
It’s certainly not hard to see him winning - and I’ll be surprised if he’s not placed.
The same is true of Mister Fisher - and the ground has come right for him.
That said, this is a deep race.
Melon has finished runner up in a Champion hurdle - and has shown decent form over fences. He looks over-priced at 14/1.
Bapaume is another very interesting runner - if you are prepared to ignore his disappointing effort, last time.
I can also see argument for Annie Mac, Reserve Tank - and even Saint Sonnet - which makes it a hard race to get involved with.
That said, Mister Fisher has been my long term fancy for the race - and I think conditions have come right for him.
As the favourites are likely to be overbet (because of their profile), he will represent value (as will Itchy Feet - and some of the outsiders).
Consequently, I think he is worth a small play - even though it’s a tough race.

2:10

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped both The Storyteller and Tout Est Permis.

I think the former is the likeliest winner of the race (by some margin).
His run last time, had to be seen to be believed !: he’s won at the festival previously - and he’s not badly handicapped.
However, on form (both over hurdles and fences), he doesn’t have much in hand of Tout Est Permis. Therefore, at 4 times the price, I think he is also worth having on side.

I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - but it will mainly be a case of saving on the others that I suggested.

2:50

Frodon and Aso fought out a thrilling finish to this race 12 months ago - and they will go head-to-head again this afternoon.
Frodon got the better of things last year - and there is no real reason why it won’t be the same again this time.
However, whether a repeat of that effort will be good enough to enable him to retain his crown, is a very different matter.
Whilst it was competitive, last years renewal wasn’t a particularly high class - but that’s not the case this time.
Min and A Plus Tard are from the top draw - and Frodon won’t find it as easy to fend them off.
Of the pair, I slightly prefer Min.
He put up a staggering performance when beating Politologue at last seasons Grand National meeting - and if he repeats that effort today, I can’t see him losing.
In fairness, he’s not guaranteed to run to the same level: certainly his 2 runs this season have been below par (despite him winning and finishing second) - but they were both over 2 miles and he steps up 4 furlongs today, which could make all the difference.
There’s little doubt that A Plus Tard will be at his peak. He hacked up in the novice handicap at the meeting last year - and whilst this will be much harder, it did show that he operates well at the course.
A defeat of Chacan Pour Soi last time, suggested that he has the class required to operate at the very highest level - though there is a chance that win may have flattered him, as the runner up was making his seasonal debut.
I could have given Riders onthe Storm a chance - but he was involved in a brutal race, when winning last time, at Ascot - and he will have done very well to recover from that in under 4 weeks.
And whilst I could also give Saint Calvados half a chance, he really shouldn’t be up to beating a peak form Min.
In short, I think this comes down to what shape Willie Mullins has Min in.
If he’s in the same form he was in at Aintree last year, then I think he will prove be too much for A Plus Tard to handle.

3:30

This race is all about Paisley Park.
He was an impressive winner 12 months ago, when he seemed to switch on a turbo and power up the hill !
He’s unbeaten in 2 races this season - and whilst not quite as impressive, his finishing kick clearly remains - and he will undoubtedly have been trained to reach his peak today.
He has nearly a stone in hand of all of his rivals - and whilst it is quite likely he will look in trouble at some point  it’s equally likely that he will find a way to win.
I couldn’t back him at 4/6 in a 15 runner race - but he could only be opposed in hope (or each way !)
Of his rivals, then I’m quite a fan of Summerville Boy - and he ran Paisley Park quite close last time (when I tipped him).
There is a big discrepancy in their odds (he’s 8/1), for what was little more than a length beating - but that race suited Summerville Boy better than todays will, so it’s hard to see how the form will be reversed.
In theory, an argument can be made for Emitom - but I’m not convinced he is good enough.
City Island is a different matter - though he is returning to hurdles having failed over fences, and that’s not an ideal preparation.
His beating of Champ at last years festival is top class form - and if he is spot on (and provided he stays the trip), he really could give Paisley Park something to think about.
Penhill and Apples Jade both look to be horses in decline - and whilst they would have a chance if rediscovering their best form , it would take a leap of faith to support either.
Ronald Pump could be interesting - because he’s a potential improver. That said, he will need to show significant improvement…
L’Ami Serge is always an interesting horse to watch ! - and in theory could be a back to lay option (though people are now wise to him); whilst Lisnagar Oscar could easily out run dismissive odds - and may be capable of rewarding an EW play, if you can get enhanced terms…
In summary, Paisley Park is by far the most likely winner - and City Island is the only one I could see beating him (assuming the fav runs to form).

4:10

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

4:50

This isn’t a race that I’ve got a strong view on - or have spent much time studying (you have to draw a line somewhere!)
Concertista finished second in the race last year - and ran really well last time, when third behind Black Tears at the Dublin Racing Festival.
That one franked the form with big run in yesterdays Coral cup - and it’s hard to see Concertista not at least going close.
Whether she will be good enough to win, is a different matter…
There is a chance that Minella Melody might be different class.
She was very well regarded when running in bumpers - and is unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles, this season.
She beat Colreevy on her most recent run - and that one re-opposes today (and is second favourite). In theory, there shouldn’t be much between the pair - but I would expect Minella Melody to confirm the form.
Nothing much jumps out, away from the head of the market - but in truth, it’s a race which I’m likely to just watch…

5:30

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped Cloth Cap.
At the odds, I think he is the best bet in the race.
I respect all of the runners at the head of the market - but Jonjo is more than capable of getting one spot on for a race like thisc!

Again, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - and I might have a slightly different take on things there (to reflect the current odds on offer).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Chel 1:30 Mister Fisher 0.5pt win 13/2
Chel 2:10 The Storyteller 0.75pt win 5/1
Chel 2:10 Tout est Permis 0.25pt win 20/1
Chel 5:30 Cloth Cap 0.5pt win 20/1
Mentions

Chel 2:50 Min (C ) - best outsider Aso
Chel 3:30 Paisley Park (P ) - best outsider City Island
Chel 4:50 Minella Melody (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions