Daily write-up - Mar 11th (Cheltenham day 2)

Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival.

There’s been no overnight rain - and the going description has been changed to ‘soft’ (removing the ‘heavy patches’).
It would be reasonable to assume the ground will therefore be riding a touch quicker than it was yesterday.
However, that may not be the case…!

When wet ground starts to dry, it goes through a ‘sticky’ phase - and I suspect we might see that today !

Unfortunately, such ground suits some horses better than others - and it’s hard to know in advance, which ones will take to it and which ones won’t…

On the plus side - there were never going to be many betting opportunities today.
In fact, I am struggling to think of a more punter unfriendly festival card !

4 of the 7 races have very short priced favs (2 of them are odds on): whilst of the remaining 3, 2 are big field handicaps.
That leaves just one race, in which you would conventionally want to play - but it’s a very hard one to fathom…

As a consequence, I’ve just got one tip on the day - though I do quite fancy it !

Just a quick reminder about the Live thread in the forum:
I ran it yesterday afternoon - and it seemed to be well received (by those who commented !).
This is not a selling exercise - but I gave positive mentions to both Shishkin and Honeysuckle, in the live markets - and I know a few took advantage.
It certainly gives a different dimension, being able to offer views, without worrying about price crashes !
Anyway, if you are interested, here is the link to todays thread:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-2-td19927.html#a19943



Cheltenham

1:30

The runs of Abacadabras and Darver Star yesterday, seriously franked the form of Envoi Allen - and he is very much the one to beat in this.
Unbeaten in 7 runs under rules - he won the bumper at last years festival and has won his 3 hurdle races this season.
The second of those, was the grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse - in which he comfortably accounted for Abacadabras and Darver Star.
That was over 2 miles - but he was stepped up a further 4 furlongs, on his most recent start, when he beat Elixir D’Anay at Naas.
He wasn’t quite as impressive that day - but he still won by nearly 4 lengths - and the runner up enhanced that form, when an unlucky late faller in yesterdays supreme.
In short, Envoi Allen can boast an exceptional level of form - and in all probability, he will only lose this race, if he under-performs.
Ofcourse, that is a possibility - particularly on the likely sticky ground - but it’s not something I would want to bet on.
In terms of what’s likely to chase him home, then despite quite a strong looking field, Sporting John appears by far the most likely.
He’s shown great ability to win his 3 hurdle races to date - and if Envoi Allen weren’t in the field, he would be a worthy favourite.
The Big Breakaway and The big Getaway, have also both shown a lot of potential, however they are likely to be next years horses (both are huge - as their names suggest !) - which might allow Easywork to take third place.
He disappointed on his latest outing - but should be better suited by todays longer trip.
Son of Camas is the one of most interest at really big prices - though he will need to find significant improvement, just to be placed.

2:10

In theory, this is the most attractive betting race on the card - but it looks a minefield !
The 10 runners are separated by only 9lb on official ratings - and whilst it would be a little surprising to see either of the outsiders (Castlebawn West and Aye Right) come home in front, stranger things have happened !
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to discount any of the remaining 8 - which makes taking a stance on the race, quite tricky…
Ignoring the odds, I would make Minella Indo the most likely winner (despite him having the second lowest official rating !).
He won the Albert Bartlett at last years festival, so clearly goes well at the course.
The only issue is - he’s now the race favourite !
Furthermore, he doesn’t have a lot in hand of Allaho - so it would be hard to back him at a short price.
Champ and Copperhead lead the home defence - and whilst victory for either wouldn’t come as a great surprise, neither are bombproof.
Champ is probably the most talented runner in the race - but he sometimes can't be bothered to jump the fences!
Copperhead is a very different beast - the question with him is whether he has sufficient class to win a race of this nature.
At the prices, I would struggle to support any of the 4 mentioned - which suggests there should be ‘value’ in the other 4.
And there probably is - I’m just a little disinclined to support horses when I don’t really fancy them...
I guess one option would be to lay the first 4 in the market - knowing that you’d have at least 3 losers - and 6 others on your side who have half a chance !
If I was forced to just select one for a bet, I’d probably go with Battleoverdoyen.
He disappointed at last years festival (when a short priced fav for the Ballymore) - and he fell last time (again, when a short priced fav) - so he definitely comes with risks attached.
On the flip side, he has masses of ability -and Gordon Elliott has deemed it worth bringing him over.
He’s 14/1 as I type - but if he gets backed down to single figures at the off, I’d be tempted to take the hint.

2:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

However, I have also tipped Dame du Compagnie - because I think her by far the most likely race winner !

As with yesterday, I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from following the suggested staking on the short list - but it will simply be a case of max stake on her - and savers on a few of the possible dangers…

3:30

The late defection of Altior has robbed this race of a good chunk of it’s interest.
The reigning champion would have been looking for his third consecutive win in the race - and should have faced his toughest test to date.
It’s a shame that we won’t get to find out whether he would have been up to the challenge…
In his absence, it now looks like being a match between Defi du Seuil and Chacon Pour Soir - and whilst it is still an intriguing contest, it’s not really a betting medium…
Defi and Chacon actually met at Punchestown, at the back end of last season - when the latter announced himself as a coming force in the 2 mile chasing division.
Prior to that race, he had only run once for Willie Mullins - wining a modest Beginners chase at Naas.
However, a 4 length despatching of Defi, showed that he was a potential star in the making.
Based purely on that run, then todays race shouldn’t really be a contest (Chacon should again win) - however there are reasons for thinking that Defi might be able to reverse the form.
For a start, it was the final run of what had been a tough season for him: whilst he has also looked an improved performer this campaign.
Of the two, I think he is likely to be better suited by the holding ground - and you would always favour the stalker in a 2 horse race !
In truth, it’s an impossible one to call with confidence - I just hope we get to see the showdown run to completion.
Of the others, then Dynamite Dollars looks the most interesting.
He was a very good novice last season - until injury curtailed his campaign.
He made a pleasing comeback behind Altior at Newbury last month, and if he can build on that, he appears the one most likely to follow the principals home.
That said, on the book, Defi doesn’t have much in hand of Politologue - who himself finished second on this race 12 months ago.
Though the fact that Harry Cobden has opted for Dynamite Dollars ahead of Politologue, makes the former even more interesting !
Whether it makes him sufficiently interesting to warrant getting involved, is a different matter - though I may have a small wager on him just in case !

4:10

However you look at this race, Tiger Roll is by far the most likely winner…
He’s won the past 2 renewals (last season by 20 lengths) - and will have been primed for his hat-trick bid this afternoon.
Ofcourse, he’s also won the past 2 renewals of the Grand National - and on official ratings, is over 20lb clear of all bar 2 of his rivals.
I thought he shaped with definite promise on his comeback run over hurdles, last month - and it will be a real shock if he is beaten.
In truth, it looks as if he’s only got 1 rival to beat (plus a tricky course to navigate !) - and if you can get even money about him (which may be possible), then I think it can be argued that it’s a very decent bet…
The potential fly in the ointment, is Easyland.
He was an impressive winner over this course in December - and at just 6 years old, appears the coming force in the discipline.
Certainly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him present Tiger Roll with a real challenge in 12 months time - but with Tiger still at his peak, he will need to be exceptional, if he's going to beat him…
Whilst there are 14 other runners, then assuming there are no slips ups from the big 2, it will be a little surprising if any of them are involved in the finish.
Might Bite is obviously the most interesting of the remainder, on his first try over the banks course.
If he retained his old ability, then he would be a proper challenger for Tiger Roll - but he now looks a shadow of his former self.
Of the the others, then I would maybe nominate Diesel Dallier as the most likely to take third place - but in reality, this is likely to just be a a watching race…

4:50

I issued the short-list for this race yesterday evening - and will suggest bets, shortly.

5:30

This is another race that makes minimal appeal, from a betting perspective.
Appreciate It heads the market and is a very short priced favourite.
There are 2 reasons for that: firstly, he was an impressive winner of the bumper at the Dublin Racing festival - and winners of that race, have a very good record in this contest; and secondly, he is trained by Willie Mullins !
Willie invariably has a particularly strong set of bumper horses - and it would appear that this one sits head and shoulders above his stable mates !
Obviously, I couldn’t back him - but equally, I would be guessing if I put up anything against him…
If I was to try and find a ‘value’ bet in the race, I would probably side with one of Gordon Elliotts runners.
He saddles 3 in the race: Darling Daughter, Queens Brook and Eskylane.
The first 2 are mares - so get an allowance; whilst the third actually finished a place in front of Appreciate It, when both of them made their debut at Fairyhouse in November.
The expectation is that Appreciate It has subsequently made the greater improvement - but that may not be the case (Eskylane has won his only subsequent race).
David Pipe appears to provide the strongest home challengers - but I’m not entirely convinced by either of his runners and wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tom Lacey trained Adrimal, do best of the English.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips
Chel 2:50 Dame du Compagnie 1pt win 5/1
Mentions

Chel 1:30 Envoi Allen (P ) - best outsider Easywork
Chel 2:10 Minella Indo (O ) - best outsider Battleoverdoyen
Chel 3:30 Defi du Seuil (P) - best outsider Dynamite Dollars
Chel 4:10 Tiger Roll (P ) - best outsider Diesel Dallier
Chel 5:30 Appreciate It (P ) - best outsider Eskylane
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions