I'd be far happier to commit after watching the first 2 races - but that's not really practical, when you are 'tipping' !
As a consequence, I'll hedge my bets a little with the handicaps (this method lends itself to that).
2:50
I'm torn between The Conditional and Discorama - and did consider tipping both.
However, there isn't much in their prices - and it's a competitive enough race (as you would expect).
No Comment always struck me as a 'saver' (as likely not to complete, as he is to go close); whilst the ground seems to have gone against Cobra de Mai (but I still need to cover him - just in case !).
I'm going to add in Quarenta - who is Harry Cobdens only ride of the day (and for Jonjo - which is particularly interesting)
I am a little worried about Vindication - but at the price, I think he should be opposed.
7 units on The Conditional at 15/2 (59.5)
7 units on Discorama at 8/1 (63)
2 units on No Comment at 11/1 (24)
3 units on Cobra de Mai at 20/1 (63)
1 unit on Quarenta at 33/1 (34)
4:50
As I said in the write-up, Hold the Note is my main fancy in this - and he can be backed at an expectable price.
There's been money for Beakstown - which is interesting, considering the ground.
However, I can only save on him: along with Imperial Aura (price too short) - and Galvin (needs to jump better - but might just do that !)
Knight in Dubai has to be worth a risk at such a big price - even though he is clearly the stable second string.
10 units on Hold the Note at 17/2 (95)
3 units on Imperial Aura at 5/1 (18)
2 units on Galvin at 15/2 (17)
2 units on Beakstown at 12/1 (26)
3 units on Knight in Dubai at 33/1 (102)
As I mentioned yesterday, I plan to preview all of the Cheltenham handicaps, using the ‘matrix method’.
Producing short-lists the night before, will help reduce the workload for the write-ups (and creating those, 4 days in a row, is always a challenge !).
There are 2 handicaps on each of the first 3 days of the meeting - and 3 on Friday.
There is a chance (quite a strong one !) that I’ll tip in some of the handicaps - in which case, I’ll probably look to do so, early on the race day morning.
Regardless, I will suggest how you could spread 20 units across the short-list, after I’ve issued the write-up (so late on the race day morning).
On a slightly different note: I’ve created a ‘live thread’ in the forum, for day 1:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Cheltenham-Live-Thread-Day-1-td19848.html
I’ll update it with random thoughts/observations, relating to the first day.
I’ll do the same for the other 3 days - hopefully it will prove to be of some value/interest…
Cheltenham Handicaps - Day 1
As seems to have been the case all season, the ground for day 1 of the festival, is the big conundrum…
It hadn’t rained for a few days and I’m reasonably sure that - as of this afternoon - it was genuinely soft ground (which would be great !).
However, it is currently raining at Cheltenham - and the expectation is that they will get around 5mm of rain before racing starts tomorrow.
Ofcourse, there is a chance they will get more - or possibly, less !
There isn’t much more rain forecast fro the rest of the week, so hopefully this particular issue will only be with us for 1 day.
That said, with the uncertainty, committing to any tips before tomorrow morning, makes no sense - so don’t expect anything before 9:00 in the morning…
2:50
The main angle with this race, is taking on the favourite, Vindication.
I don’t doubt he’s a good horse - but he has to carry top weight and will be going left handed, when he seems to have a marked preference for right handed.
I think there is more chance of him not completing than there is of him winning.
I’ll be very tempted to place lay him at 2/1 (possibly saving stakes on a win bet, just in case he does outclass his rivals !)
Discorama (8/1) has finished second at the last 2 festivals - and is not badly handicapped on a mark of 148.
His second in a grade 1 last season, gives him an outstanding chance - and whilst he’s not run to that level this season, a recent wind op could see him bounce back to form.
He’ll have no issue, whatever the ground.
The Conditional (15/2) will be hard to keep out of the frame.
He won over course and distance at the October meeting - and then finished second in the Hennessey.
He didn’t seem to stay the extreme trip last time - so dropping back in distance, should suit him.
Again, he won’t might whatever the ground…
No Comment (12/1) was an eye catcher on his first 2 runs this season, over inadequate trips.
On the back of those, he was sent off at just 15/2 for the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He fell in that race - but was still going OK at the time.
He’s a little more speculative - but definitely has a chance.
Cobra de Mai (16/1) would be very interesting indeed - without the rain.
He hacked up over the course last April - and is back down to the same mark, tomorrow.
He’s been a real eye catcher the last twice - and it looks as if connections have been teeing him up for this.
Tongue tie and cheek-pieces are re-applied - and Harry Skelton is back in the saddle.
The big worry is softening ground…
4:50
The right horses look to be at the head of the market for this, which will make things tricky.
That said, there are quite a few I couldn’t fancy - it’s just that the market doesn’t rate them either !
Imperial Aura (11/2) has been targeted at this race - and it’s hard to see him not going close.
He finished second in a very strong handicap over course and distance last time - and the 7lb rise he got, ensured he was high enough rate to run tomorrow.
He previous run against Pym, also reads well - and he should have no issue with the ground (however it may ride).
Galvin (7/1) also looks to have been targeted at the race.
He finished sixth in the grade 1 Ballymore hurdle at last years festival - and that suggests he is reasonably handicapped, off a mark of 142.
His 3 runs over fences this season, have all been about getting experience, whilst ensuring he wasn’t handicapped out of tomorrows race.
His stamina isn’t completely proven - but the main issue, is his inexperience.
I’m sure he has the raw talent to go very close.
Hold the Note (15/2) is an improving horse.
I’ve tipped him on his last 2 runs - and he’s been very unlucky not to collect, on both occasions.
Tomorrows trip should be perfect for him - and whilst he’s maybe a few pounds higher in the handicap than ideal, I suspect he’s capable of rating a fair bit higher yet.
Beakstown (16/1) is yet another who looks to have been targeted at this race.
Like Galvin, he ran in last years Ballymore hurdle - though didn’t perform quite as well.
Again, as with Galvin, his 3 chases this season, have been about gaining experience, whilst not messing up his handicap mark.
The main issue with him, is that he would prefer decent ground (unlike Galvin !).
Knight in Dubai (33/1) was my original fancy for the race !
However, it would appear that the Skeltons prefer the chances of Beakstown.
Unlike him, Knight in Dubai will have no issue with rain softened ground - and he looked a natural over fences, on his first 2 starts this season.
I’d even be prepared to forgive him his defeat last time (in desperate ground).
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