Daily write-up - Nov 16th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Cheltenham, Wetherby and Uttoxeter in the UK - plus Punchestown in Ireland.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who was delighted when Cheltenham passed its inspection yesterday afternoon.

Rain has blighted the TVB season so far - but the abandonment of the prime pre-Christmas meeting, would have taken things to a whole new level !

In truth the extensive rainfall has already done damage - both with the loss of yesterdays fixture - and in the field sizes for today and tomorrow.

As I said last week, I do expect periods like this during the season - but they usually happen in January/February - not November !

Still, there is nothing that can be done about it: we’re just got to be grateful that racing is taking place - and some of that racing is high class.

With yesterdays Ballymore novice hurdle transferred to today, there are now 8 races on the Cheltenham card.

However, 4 of those are novice races - and betting opportunities in such races tend to be limited.
Thankfully, the other 4 races on the card are decent handicaps - and I’ve managed to find a tip in each of them.

In truth, that is just as well, as the supporting cards at Uttoxeter and Wetherby are a class below - and whilst I night have been able to find a tip or two, if pushed - I wouldn’t have been issuing them at 9:00 !

There are some classier races at Punchestown - including the grade 1 Morgiana hurdle - and I've also found a tip in that.
There is also the fencing debut of former champion hurdler, Faugheen - at the age of 11 !

Here’s the rationale for the days tips - along with my thoughts on the other races at Cheltenham - and the big races at Punchestown.


Cheltenham

12:05

Thyme Hill produced a rare feet, in winning a grade 2 race on his hurdling debut - and is a worthy favourite to follow up in this.
The very fact he made his hurdling debut in a graded contest, gives an indication of how highly connections rate him - and he didn’t let them down, with a battling display.
He has to carry a 5lb penalty for that win - but I would expect the experience of his first run over hurdles, to be worth at least that.
He looks very much the one to beat - even if a price of 6/4 leaves little margin for error.
Identifying his most dangerous opponent is not easy:
Dancing on my Own and Champagne Well are both second season novices, who have shown themselves capable of decent form.
They are relatively battle hardened - and that could prove valuable in the very testing conditions.
By contrast, Happygolucky, I K Brunel and L’Air du Vent are all relatively unexposed - but have plenty of scope for improvement.
My feeling is that Thyme Hill is the best horse in the race, by some margin - so if he handles the conditions, he should win.
I can't see the unexposed horses being bottomed to chase him home - so Dancing on my Own and Champagne Well seem the 2 most likely to fill the places.

12:40

This is an impossible race to call with any confidence.
Mick Pastor has the reputation - and the French form - to make him the one to beat - though it would appear he can also be headstrong.
If he races freely today, then he is unlikely to get home - so makes no appeal at a price of 5/4…
If I did get involved with the race, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on either Chocks Away or Thatsmyseat.
The former represents Nick Williams - and he has a habit of producing a useful juvenile, at this time of the year.
That said, the latter is possibly a touch more interesting.
Thatsmyseat is a filly, trained in France, by Emmanual Clayeaux.
She has already run 4 times - and shown she has some ability.
Precisely how much, is impossible to gauge - but that experience is likely to be valuable - as is the fact she receives weight from all of her rivals (nearly a stone, from Mick Pastor).
There is way too much guesswork involved to consider tipping her - but I wouldn’t put anyone off a tiny play at a big price.

1:15

Whilst he has a good deal in hand, based on official ratings, I’m not completely convinced by Wholestone in this…
He’s rated nearly a stone superior to all of his rivals - but I don’t see it quite that way.
For a start, his rating is based primarily on his runs over hurdles - and whilst he has done little wrong in 2 chase outings, I’m not sure he’s going to be as good over fences as he was over the smaller obstacles.
The trouble is, it’s not easy to find one to take him on with.
He finished in front of 3 of todays rivals, last time out, when he was narrowly beaten by Mulcahys Hill.
He did have a fitness advantage that day - but Minella Warrior, Aye Aye Charlie and Rockpoint, are still all going to have their work cut out, to reverse the form.
Consequently, his biggest danger may end up being Poker Play.
He won quite well on his chasing debut at Ffos Las - and loves heavy ground.
However, he is rated 13lb inferior to Wholestone - and there isn’t enough in a price of 4/1, to encourage me to take a risk on him.
Redzor is arguably the value play in the race (he’s 14/1 in places) - though it’s unusual for a Skelton horse to be unbacked, if it is fancied.
Ultimately, I just couldn't find a route into the race which I felt comfortable with - so it’s have to be one to watch…

1:50

Whilst there is a disappointing turn out for this in terms of numbers - it is still a fascinating race, in which a case can be constructed for just about all of the runners.
As a northern trained, seasonal debutante, I expected Big River to be the first one I put a line through - but instead, looking at his form revealed a compelling case..!
For a start, his record after a break, is ridiculous !
Just about all of his best performances have come on the back of an absence - he’s clearly a horse who is best when fresh.
He’s also a horse who is best on heavy ground - and in relatively small fields (can you see a theme developing ?!).
His best piece of form, was shown in last years Ultima handicap at the festival - when he finished like a train to take fourth place.
He runs off a mark one pound lower today - so is clearly well handicapped - and the extra 3 furlongs, is precisely what he needs.
In short, he has a tick in just abut every box - apart from the ‘not trained in the north’ one. However, I felt it a bit churlish to eliminate him simply because of geography (it’s not as if Lucinda Russell can’t trained big handicap chase winners - as the victory of One for Arthur in the 2018 Grand National, demonstrated).
One slight potential concern, was if there was no pace in the race (thereby reducing the stamina demands). However, the presence of habitual front runner, Achille, should ensure that’s not the case.
If the idea race was being framed for Big River, I think this would be it !
As I said at the start, a case of sorts can be made for all of his rivals - but equally, I can find flaws in all of their claims.
That said, I would expect them all to have their supporters - so 9/2 really should be a minimum price for Big River.
From a pure ‘value’ perspective, the Pop Rockstar is interesting at a double figure price - I don’t think he’s quite got the class of Big River though…

2:25

I spent a long time going through this race on Thursday (arguably too long !) - and came to the conclusion that it’s very open !
That’s borne out by the betting - with the bookies offering close to 7/1 the field…
There was some value available on Thursday - but the various industry tipsters soon spotted that and it was all eradicated yesterday evening.
Unfortunately, Happy Diva was one of the horse who came in for support - with a general 16/1 becoming a general 12/1.
The latter price is much closer to the mark - and assuming no ill luck befalls her (as happened last year). it’s hard to see her not running very well.
She is staggeringly consistent. In her 15 runs over fences, she has finished first, second or third on 13 occasions  - but been brought down and unseated on the other 2 !
You don’t get many handicappers how can match that.
She’s also relatively indifferent to thee ground - though crucially, will handle soft just fine.
I was very taken by her seasonal debut at Wetherby, last month - where she travelled like the best horse for most of the race.
I would expect her to come on for that run - and that should put her right in the mix.
In truth, it is just not a race you can be confident about - but Happy Diva is a rock solid selection, who I feel has as good a chance as anything, of coming home in front.
She also has a better chance than most of finishing in the frame - which is why I took the relatively unusual step of suggesting a ‘saver’ on her to be placed.
In terms of her rivals - then there are plenty I could see running well - but the market has them all positioned about right.
The other ones of potential interest to me, were Eamon an Cnoc and Belami des Pictons.
However, like Happy Diva they were both backed yesterday evening - and I fancy the mare a little more.

3:00

This is another race where it’s not hard to make a case for most of the runners - but hopefully that will mean the price of The Butcher Said is more likely to stand up !
He racked up a 4 timer in May and June - but any thoughts that he was just a summer horse, were dismissed when he ran at the Cheltenham October meeting.
As I’m sure many of you will recall, the ground on the Saturday of that meeting, was also desperate, but The Butcher Said handled it just fine - and ran Ramses de Taille to 4 lengths.
There were only 4 runners in the race - and Ramses is better known as a chaser - so there is a question mark over the form.
However, the form book says that The Butcher Said gave a 8lb to a horse rated 10lb higher - and was only beaten 4 lengths.
Literal interpretation suggests that The Butchers Said ran to a level a stone higher than his rating - yet his mark was not changed…
As I said, we do need to treat the run with some suspicion - although the performance of the third and fourth placed horses, do back it up.
Even ignoring it however, The Butchers Said still has a decent chance.
He is an improving young horse, who should be better for a recent comeback run - and who has shown he can handle very soft ground.
Of the others, then his stablemate, Smackwater Jack - and the Venetia trained Eminent Poet, are the 2 I fear most - with Golan Fortune, a potentially interesting outsider…

3:30

In this world of hyper sensitive, hyper accurate markets, it’s not often that I can find a true ‘value’ bet - but I think Shamwalla is one…
The main reason of course, is because he is trained by a relatively low key Irish handler - and up against number of the high profile stables, it’s almost inevitable that his price will be bigger than it should be.
In truth, it was the fact that Shamwalla is trained by Paul Gilligan, that drew me to him.
Those of you with good memories will recall that the trainer provided TVB with one of its best ever days, when he saddled Jadanli to victory in the 2013 Thystes chase. What a day !
The thing about trainers like him, is that they don’t run many horses at Cheltenham - so when they do, you need to examine them closely.
He’s actually got another runner in the second race on the card - but I suspect he’s just been brought over to keep Shamwalla company.
In terms of the case for the horse, then I feel it is quite strong.
He’s only run 3 times over hurdles - and on his debut, he ran The Big Galloper to a neck at Rosscommon, giving him 7lb.
The Big Galloper then went on to finish second at the Cheltenham October meeting, off a mark of 122.
Shamwalla runs off a mark of 130 today - which suggests he would have finished about second in that race…
That’s decent form - and puts him in with every chance in this race.
Since the Rosscommon run, Shamwalla has run twice - and twice finished third.
However, he was up against decent novices on both occasions and lost little in defeat.
Last time, he looked as if he was going to win - but didn’t quite get home.
He drops 2 furlongs in trip today, which I think is a good move.
Shamwalla has front run in all of his previous races - and hopefully he will do the same again today.
He is ridden by the trainees son, Liam - and he looks good value for his 7lb claim.
Again, its impossible to be confident in a race like this, where most of the runners are unknown quantifies.
However, I am very confident that Shamwalla was value at 16/1 - and, as we all know, if you keep finding value, then long term, you’ll do just fine…

4:00

The card closes with a mares bumper - and there is too much guesswork required, to consider getting seriously involved.
If forced off the fence, then I would side with Lady in Hiding.
She ran well to finish third in a similar race at the October meeting. I would expectt her to improve for that run, and if she does, she is likely to go close again.
Whether she will be good enough to win, will depend on the quality of her mainly unexposed rivals…


Punchestown

12:50

The chasing debut of Faugheen will undoubtedly be one of the major draws on the Punchestown card.
He’s now 11 - and well past his peak - but he still may have sufficient class to win.
Obviously the big worry, is how he will take to the fences - and I just hope connections don’t rue asking him, so late in his career.
Whilst his presence stops this from being a betting race, I will still be very interested to see Walk Away tackle a fence.
He caught my eye at Aintree last season, when he competed in a grade 1 novice hurdle, behind Champ.
He looked the sort who would improve massively for a fence - and if Faugheen does come up short todays, I would look no further for the race winner.

1:25

This is an intriguing little race - but it’s hard to see an angle into it.
Notebook and Moon over Germany have very different profiles - but both are very useful.
Moon over Germany is the far more exposed of the pair - he won the Red Rum handicap chase at last seasons Aintree National meeting.
By contrast Notebook has only run once over fences - when defeating Ecalie de Beaufeu over todays course and distance, last month.
I suspect that one of them will win todays race - but the market agrees, and as I can’t find a particular reason for favouring one of them it has to be a watching race.

2:00

There are only 5 runners in this - and the first 3 in the market are trained by Willie Mullins.
They include the current Champion hurdle favourite, Klassical Dream, who has his first run in open company.
There is no doubt he looked very good as a novice - and there is every chance that he will progress into a worthy Champion hurdle candidate - but if he;s going to be vulnerable, it’s most likely to be today…
The most obvious ones to take him on with, are his stablemates: however, both of them are also making their seasonal debuts.
Saldier has seen the track for over 12 months, since he took a fall at the final hurdle, when putting it up to Espoir Dallen; whilst Sharjan also hit the deck on his most recent run, in the Champion hurdle back in March…
In short, both have question marks over them.
Instead, I would rather take small risk on Petit Mouchoir.
Formerly a top class hurdler, he disappointed a little over fences - but showed signs of a revival back over hurdles last season.
He finished fourth to Buveur Dair in the Irish Champion hurdle in May - beaten just 4 lengths, and on that form, could go very close today.
He’s also had a run this season - and whilst ultimately well beaten, he ran well until tiring in the last half mile.
I would expect that run to have brought him on significantly - and if Rachael Blackmore can get the fractions right, I think his better fancied opponents could find him tough to pass this afternoon.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.






Tips

Chel 1:50 Big River 1pt win 9/2
Chel 2:25 Happy Diva *0.75pt win/ 0.25pt place 12/1
Chel 3:00 The Butcher Said 1pt win 11/2
Chel 3:30 Shanwalla 0.75pt win 16/1
Punch 2:00 Petite Mouchoir 0.5pt win 25/1

Mentions

Chel 12:40 Thatsmyseat (S )
Chel 4:00 Lady in Hiding (S )
Punch 12:50 Walk Again (O )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions