Daily write-up - Nov 24th

The abandonment of Exeter means that there are just 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Uttoxeter and Navan.

…and there isn’t a great deal to get excited about at Uttoxeter !

The feature race on the card, is a 6 runner class 3 handicap hurdle.
I’m not going to tip in it - though I do think that Flashjack will take a bit of beating - under ideal conditions, following his good debut run at Ayr, on the first Saturday of the TVB season.
Certainly, I you can secure 4/1, he’s worth a small risk.

In fairness, the Navan card is also a bit limited - with only a couple of races of interest.

There’s a fascinating beginners chase at 2:00 - and ofcourse, the Troytown chase at 2:30.

I was always reasonably committed to tipping in the Troytown - though I’ve changed my fancy for the race since the final declarations were made.
Let’s hope I’ve jumped the right way !

Here are my thoughts on the days 2 best races.


Navan

2:00

This is a race with a ridiculous history (considering it is only a beginners chase).
In the past 5 years, it has been won by Vautour, Douvan, Min, Al boom Photo and Jetz.
I’ve not counted - but between them, those 5 must have subsequently won about 20 Grade 1 chases !
The winner of todays race will certainly have something to live up to !

That said, there are some potentially very good horses in todays race - and it would be a little surprising if the winner didn’t go on to much better things.
The market is headed by I’m a Game Changer - and whilst that can possibly be justified based on form, he hasn’t got the potential of some of his rivals.
Cash Back and Demain Des L’Aube are far less exposed - and could literally be anything.
Both are ex French - and have only run 4 times in Ireland between them.
Demain Des L’Aube in particular, could be very good indeed.
That said, the one who interests me most, is Triplicate…
He was Grade 1 placed as a hurdler - and always looked the type to do better over fences.
A run over hurdles, at Down Royal, at the beginning of the month, should have blown away the cobwebs - and he looks to me, the one to beat.
I’m just a bit surprised that he is such a big price (8/1 with the bookies - 10 on the exchanges).
I’d be very tempted to tip him - but the trouble with these kind of races is that the market tends to know !
There is a chance that he needs the run - but any late support would make him very interesting…
Outside the main 4, Capuccimix is another who looks particularly interesting; with La Tektor, Caravation and Valdieu, 3 more worth keeping an eye on.
It’s fair to say, there are unlikely to be many more interesting beginners chases run this season !

2:30

Those who follow the eye catchers in the forum, won’t be surprised to hear that my start point for this race, was Shady Operator.
He caught my eye, on his seasonal debut at Galway, when finishing third to Portmore Lough.
He looked sure to come on hugely for that run - and I expect him to reverse the form with the race-fit winner, on 10lb better terms.
However, Shady Operator is trained by Jospeh O’Brien and owned by JP McManus - and they have another runner in the race in the shape of Tower Bridge.
Furthermore, jockey bookings suggest that Tower Bridge is the stables number 1.
That makes it hard for me to side with Shady Operator.
I could side with Tower Bridge - and I did consider that - but he is a little more exposed than I would like.
I would expect him to run well - but feel he might be vulnerable to a classier opponent.
2 such opponents head the market, in the shape of Chris’s Dream and Discorama.
They met in a grade 3 novice event at Naas in January - and there can be little doubt that Discorama would have won their personal duel, if he’d not fallen at the last.
As he has also had a run this season, it’s reasonable to think that Discorama should confirm that form today - but I’m not so sure…
Chris’s Dream was sent off a well backed 9/4 fav for the Naas race.
The expectation was that he would win.
Similarly, he was sent off at just 5/1 for the grade 1 novice chase at the Aintree Grand National meeting, on his penultimate run last season.
The only horses shorter than him in the betting, were Topofthegame and Losstintranslation - and both of those are Gold Cup class.
Chris’s Dream ran disappointingly in that race - but I don’t think that’s the point…
He’s clearly considered a top class horse - and he does have performances to back that up. The key, is to support him in the right conditions…
It would appear that connections have decided that he needs to be fresh.
Certainly he was impressive on his seasonal debut last season - so it’s hard to argue.
It’s also hard to argue with the fact he performs best on soft ground (which he will get today) - and at Navan (where he is unbeaten in his 2 previous outings).
The fact he likes to race prominently is a big plus in a race of this nature (and part of the reason I prefer him to the Joseph O’Brien pair); whilst Robbie Power in the saddle, is the ultimate cherry on top !
In short, he has perfect conditions; looks to have been targeted at the race; and could be very well handicapped.
The only thing not to like, is the price.
6/1 in a competitive 23 runner race, seems crazy.
However, there isn’t a lot I can do about that.
My expectation is that he will drift a little, close to the off - and those of you who are patient, will hopefully be able to get a point or two bigger.
At the end of the day, he was the horse I strongly wanted to side with - and I wasn’t prepared to switch allegiance, for a bit of ‘value’.
I’ll be surprised if I’ve not already mentioned the winner of the race somewhere - but one other worthy of note, is Redhotfillypeppers.
She’s the only runner in the race for Willie Mullins (which makes her interesting) - and she likes to front run.
I don’t think she is quite good enough to win - but she could be a good back to lay IR option.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Nav 2:30 Chris's Dream 1pt win 6/1

Mentions

Nav 2:00 Triplicate (C )
Utt 2:40 Flashjack (C )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions

*Back-to lay IR
Nav 2:30 Redhotfillypeppers

*The idea is that back-to lay IRs will trade at half BSP (or less) during the race