There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wincanton, Aintree and Kelso in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland.
We will need to wait another week, before the new NH season really takes off (with the 3 day Cheltenham ‘Open’ meeting).
Things had been gradually building - but the momentum slows a little today...
Wincanton host a reasonable meeting - but 2 of their bigger races have attracted small, uncompetitive fields.
Whilst at Aintree, all of the fields are on the small size.
The racing at Kelso lacks the quality required for me to tip; and there is nothing suitable at Naas either.
As a consequence, there are very few races for me to get involved with.
More than that, the rain is playing games again !
The ground at Wincanton is currently ‘good’ - but there is significant rain forecast before racing, so it’s anyones guess how it will ride.
There is less guesswork required at Aintree, where conditions are already described as ‘soft’.
However, rain is also forecast there - so there must be a chance it will be edging towards heavy, come the off…
With so few opportunities - and uncertainty surrounding conditions - I had little choice other than to take things easy, from a tipping perspective.
We’ve a long old season ahead of us - so it’s silly to try and force it, when things are not in our favour.
As a consequence - and with Paint the Dream a NR - I’ve ended up with just 3 tips on the day.
Here’s the rational behind them - along with my thoughts on the afternoons other big races…
Wincanton
1:15
I think it is worth taking a small chance on Acaro in this…
He made a pleasing seasonal debut at Fontwell, a fortnight ago, when finishing third to Waikiki Waves.
He was prominent throughout, that day, only giving best up the home straight.
I would hope he would come on for that run - and as he’s only 5 years old, there is obviously still plenty of scope for improvement.
In truth, he will need to improve if he s going to get the better of Enola Gay and Saintemilion.
They met over todays course and distance, in April, with the former coming out on top by 6 lengths.
There is an 8lb turn around in the weights today, which should makes things much closer.
I suspect it will come down to which one is more tuned for their reappearance - and which one handles underfoot conditions best.
I’d have a slight preference for Enola Gay - but so does the market, so there is no angle there…
Of the others, then Keep Moving and Native Robin are 2 of potential interest - but again, the market has them priced about right.
I didn’t feel that was the case with Acaro, at the early prices - so in the circumstances, figured him worth a small play.
1:50
The case for Danse Idol in this, does look compelling - almost scarily so !
She is trained by Paul Nichols, who has an excellent record at Wincanton (his ‘home’ course) - and historically he has done particularly well at this meeting.
Danse Idol herself, is a relatively unexposed 6 year old, who is yet to finish out of the first 2, in 5 runs over hurdles.
More than that, 3 of those runs were at Listed/Graded level - which suggests an opening mark of 129, is generous.
That suggestion is backed up, if you delve a little deeper into her form…
She finished 16 lengths in front of Dullahow Gesture at Sandown in February - yet the pair meet at level weights today.
She also beat Printing Dollars by 3 lengths on her hurdling debut last December - but that one is now rated 134 (and didn’t appear to show as much subsequent improvement as Danse idol).
My feeling is that Danse Idol has at least 7lb in hand of her current mark - and that very much makes her the one to beat.
Ofcourse, she needs to be able to handle todays conditions - but I don’t see an issue with (regardless of whether it rains).
And there is a theoretical doubt concerning her fitness, as this is her seasonal debut.
However, todays race is run in memory of Richard Barber.
He was a great supporter of Nichols in his early days as a trainer - and I’m absolutely sure Nichols will want to win the contest (and that’s ignoring the incentive of the £17K first prize !).
In short, I just can’t see any holes in the case for Danse Idol.
That said, she does have 15 rival to overcome - and I’ve been too long in this game to know there is no such thing as a certainty !
Of her rivals - then nothing particularly stands out - although there are quite a few that I could see running well.
Top of the list, is probably Misty Bloom - and at a double figure price, she is worth a small (unofficial) saver….
2:25
All things being equal, I would expect Reverse Tank to take this.
He was a dual grade 1 wining novice hurdler last season (at Aintree and Punchestown) - and he ran well enough on his chasing debut at Chepstow, last month.
He was expected to win that as well - and for most of the race, looked likely to do so. However, a slow jump at the final fence, cost him momentum, and Jarveys Plate over took him on the run in.
In truth, he didn’t lose a great deal in defeat - and assuming that run has sharpened him up, he will take all of the beating in this.
The mare, If you Say Run, is the one most likely to follow him home.
She receives a 7lb sex allowance from Reverse Tank - and whilst that still sees him ahead on official ratings, there shouldn’t be too much in it.
However, Revere Tank has got the greater scope - and has also got race fitness on his side.
Non of the other 4 runners should really be good enough to get involved.
That said, Garo De Juilly looks a tad over-priced at 20/1.
If the race is incident free, I wouldn’t expect him to do better than third: But it is a novice chase - and Wincanton is a tricky jumping test - so an error free round for all 6 novices, is not guaranteed.
If things do get a but messy, I could see him taking advantage (and possibly running into a place).
3:00
I couldn’t consider backing Fusil Raffles at 1/2 - but I wouldn’t want to oppose him, either…
On official ratings, he has very little in hand of Grand Sancy - and that one has the advantage of race fitness.
However, Fusil Raffles has endless scope for improvement, having won his only 2 races for Nicky Henderson: firstly when destroying Beat the Judge in a grade 2 race at Kempton; and then when getting the better of Fakir D’oudaries in the 4 year old Champion hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
Ofcourse, there is a danger that he’s not trained on.
However Nicky Henderson seems pretty bullish - and I suspect he’ll prove a class above, Grand Sancy.
And if that is the case, then I think he’s almost sure to win.
Certainly Grand Sancy looks by far the biggest danger to Fusil Raffles - and at a price of 4/1, it could be argued that he is effectively an EW bet to nothing.
You win, if he manages to get the better of Fusil Raffles: and get your money back if he finishes second.
I guess that might appeal to some - but my suspicion is that you’ll just end up getting your money back !
Officially speaking, this is just a watching race - though I will be intrigued to see how Fusil Raffles performs, with an eye to bigger contests ahead.
3:35
I suspect that ground conditions will have a big bearing on the outcome of this race - which makes tipping in it 6 hours before the off, a slightly risky thing to do !
Certainly, if the going turns soft, I won’t be anywhere near as keen on the chances of The Young Master - though I’m hoping if that does happen, connections will withdraw him.
That’s what they’ve done the last twice he was intended to run this season: at Chepstow and Cheltenham.
On both occasions, significant pre-race rain turned the ground soft - and the horse was taken out.
Let’s hope he doesn’t get up his hatrick of non-appearances, this afternoon !
If he does make it to the start, then I think he has a very good chance.
He actually won this very race, back in 2014 ! - but subsequently lost it, because he hadn’t qualified to run in it !
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since then - and The Young Master has shown himself to be a good quality chaser, more than capable of running very well in a race such as this.
It looked as if he had gone into decline, prior to last season: but a win on his seasonal debut, was followed by 3 more very good runs, which showed, that all of the ability remains.
That being the case, then he is undoubtedly well handicapped off a mark of 144 - considering he won the 2016 B365 Gold cup off a mark of 148.
It all comes down to the ground - and his fitness.
In theory today is his seasonal debut - and whilst he did win first time out 12 months ago, I still feel happier that he had a run round on the AW last month (to blow away the cobwebs).
In terms of his rivals, then White Moon is an understandable favourite - though you would have to worry about his jumping, in such a big field.
Like The Young Master, Just a Sting has a marked preference for decent ground (and a little bit to prove in terms of well being - and his ability to cope with a big field).
Whilst the issue with Give me a Copper, is whether he will be sharp enough, to cope with todays challenge.
Present Man could easily turn out to be The Young Masters biggest challenger, as he goes for a hatrick of wins in the race.
Certainly if his price drift to around 10 (not impossible on BF), then he is worth a saver.
Aintree
12:20
With Paint the Dream taken out of the race this morning, due to a bruised foot, I no longer have a particularly strong view on it.
I felt he was the ‘value’ call at 16/1 (a but like Acaru at Wincanton) - accepting that he was no certainty !
In his absence, Champagne Mystery and Present Value are the 2 who appeal most - but there is no margin in their current prices (3/1 and 9/2)
1:30
I did briefly consider getting involved with Shady Oaks in this.
In part, that is because I think the market leaders look vulnerable.
I can see the case for both The Last Day and Charmant - and whilst they are the most likely race winners (so correct favs) - neither is bomb proof.
The issue however, is finding something to take them on with - and I thought Shady Oaks might be the one.
He is very lightly raced (so open to lots of improvement) - and interestingly, is Jamie Moores only ride on the card.
If he’d run previously this season, then I would almost certainly have taken a risk.
However, his fitness is unknown - and in truth, he looks more like a 3 mile plodder, than a 2 mile speedster ! (so could take some getting fit)
If the going gets desperate, that might work to his advantage - though lack of race sharpness, won’t.
On balance, I felt there was just too much guesswork required…
2:05
This is a cracking little race - and I’m a bit disappointed that I’ve not been able to find a tip in it…
The trouble is, it’s easy to make a case for the top 6 in the betting - and once again, fitness and ground conditions are likely to be key.
To a large extent, we can only guess about both - so the attraction of getting involved, is limited…
If forced off the fence, I would side with Oldgrangewood.
He’s not run this season - but I very much doubt his fitness will be an issue.
However the ground might be, as he doesn't really want it too soft.
His chances will also be greatly improved, if the breathing op he had over the summer, has been a success.
In short, whilst I won’t be at all surprised if he runs very well (or even wins), with so many doubts/unknowns, he can’t really be a bet at 5/1.
Cepage is the other obvious one: again lack of a recent run wouldn’t be a concern; but carrying nearly 12st in heavy ground, would…
There is even more guesswork involved with Riders onthe storm and The Russian Doyen: and whilst Duke Street and War Sound are a little easier to asses, neither would be top of my pile of fancies, if all the runners perform to their best.
If it’s any help, I can’t make much of a case for the 4 longest priced runners - but that simply says to me that the market has them right !
2:40
Diomede des Mottes and Rosy World are the 2 that appeal most in this - but the market is wise (very wise !) to them.
It’s not a particularly deep contest - and I did hope that I might have been able to get 4/1 on one of them (I wouldn’t have minded which one !).
However, despite opening up around that price last night - both have been very well backed and you will now struggle to beat 5/2.
Clearly, there is no edge at that price.
I might much prefer their chances to those of the other 6 runners - but combined, they are heavily odds on to win, and I can pass on that (particularly if the ground does turn heavy).
If forced, I’d probably just favour Rosy World - but I won’t be getting financially involved with the race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Winc 1:15 Acaro 0.5pt win 16/1
Winc 1:50 Danse Idol 1.5pt win 4/1
Winc 3:35 The Young Master 1pt win 15/2
Aint 12:20 Paint the Dream 0.5pt win 16/1 (NR)
Mentions
Aint 1:30 Shady Oaks (S )
Aint 2:05 Oldgrangewood (O )
Aint 2:40 Rosy World (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
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