Daily write-up - Nov 29th

It’s the opening day of the 2 day Winter Carnival at Newbury.

There has been a fair bit of rain this week, and the ground is expected to be riding on the soft side.

They've suffered significantly more rain in Doncaster - and their 2 day meeting has been abandoned.
As a consequence, the only other NH racing today, takes places at Limerick.

All eyes are likely to be focused on Newbury however, where they host a varied card - with a number of good quality races.

Furthermore, I have quite a strong view on all of them - aside from the 2 novice hurdles.
I’ve even managed to issue 3 tips - which is pretty good going for a Friday !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races…


Newbury

12:45

I did think that I’d be taking a speculative punt on Sully D’Oc AA in this, at a double figure price - so I was a bit surprised last night, when he opened up at 5/1 !
More than that, he was then backed - and at 4/1 when I went to bed, I was equally sure I wouldn’t be tipping him !
He’s drifted this morning - and is 7/1 as I type this - which I feel is about right.
If he’d made it to 8/1, I would have taken a risk - but I’ve run out of time, so he’ll have to be a Mention instead.
In terms of the case for him, then he caught my eye, travelling strongly in a decent race at Ascot last time.
He’s been dropped 4lb for that run - and cuts back half a mile in distance.
He’ll be winning sooner rather than later - and it could be today - but equally, it may not !
Certainly, this is a strong looking race.
I expected Southfield Stone to be quite a short priced fav - and arguably, he’s not a bad bet at 4/1.
However, the reality is, a case can be made for all 8 of the runners - and when that happens I feel you can only bet something at a ‘value’ price (in this case, 7/1 or bigger).
I could give half chances (better than their odds imply) to Encore Champs and Champagne City.
That said, both would be close to the bottom of my list of most likely winners (they are just theoretical value !).
In summary, if Sully drifts to 8/1, I’ll get involved: if he doesn’t I’ll watch the race with an eye to the future.

1:50

From a pure handicapping perspective, Oldgrangewood has an outstanding chance in this…
He won the corresponding race, 2 years ago, from a mark 10lb higher than the one he races off today.
He was put up 2lb for that win - and in truth, it’s hard to understand why he has  dropped back down to the mark he is now on.
He’s not been a model of consistency since that win - but he’s put in some very decent efforts, in strong handicaps - and I’m sure he can win off his current mark.
In truth, I was tempted by him last time, when he made his seasonal debut at Aintree.
The problem that day, was that there were just too many unknowns (fitness, opposition etc.) to justify supporting him at a relatively short price.
I did think that he might be very well backed that day.
Certainly, Dan Skelton had been talking up the positive impact of a recent wind op - so strong market support wouldn’t have been surprising.
However, it didn’t materialise - and I was left thinking it was more a prep run for another day (hopefully today !).
Clearly, everything will be in his favour this afternoon - it’s simply going to be a case of whether he is good enough…
A field of 12 suggests a competitive race - but I think at least half of the runners can be relatively safely dismissed (on the grounds of fitness, or handicap mark).
Kalashnikov is the big potential fly in the ointment.
Simply, he could be better than a handicapper - and we know from Sunday, how dangerous they can be !
If he were any kind of a price (7/2), I would save on him - but at 5/2, I feel we just have to take a risk.
Glen Forsa could be a danger - but the market is suggesting he will benefit from the run.
As a consequence, Eamon an Cnoic is the one I would be most fearful of (after Kalashnikov).
San Benedito was an eye catcher last time - and whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss, him, I suspect a midfield run and a a couple of pounds off his mark, would be considered a good days work (which makes him a bit tricky to support !)

2:25

This really is a sensational race !
Champ has been installed favourite - and whilst that’s perfectly understandable - and probably justified, I’m not sure he should be odds on.
He faces 5 very credible rivals - and if he’s not at the top of his game, he will get beaten.
A slight concern for him is that the 2m4f trip is an absolute minimum.
I suspect the race will be run at a good clip, so that will help - but at 4/5, you don’t want too many doubts…
Second favourite, Black Op, will be well suited by the trip - and he’s likely to be very dangerous.
As with Champ, he finished second in the Ballymore at the Cheltenham festival (a year earlier).
He was sent chasing last season - but it didn’t go well and after 2 disappointing runs, he was put back over the smaller obstacles, for the remainder of the season.
Connections tried again with fences this season, and he was most impressive, when winning at Stratford.
However, that was a much weaker race than todays - and he was doubtless helped enormously, by getting an uncontested lead, which meant he could jump at his leisure.
Dashel Drasher will almost certainly stop that from being the case this afternoon - and that could easily compromise Black Ops chance.
Dashel Drasher himself, shouldn’t be good enough, as he was beaten by Champ last time and there is no obvious reason for him to reverse the form (though I would expect him to run well).
Vision des Flos is a fascinating runner.
He’s the highest rated in the field over hurdles - so if he can translate that to fences, he’s going to be tough to beat.
However, he unseated on his only previous try over the bigger obstacles - so supporting him, wouldn’t be easy.
By contrast, Deyrann de Carjac is the lowest rated over hurdles (his is rated 23lb inferior to Vision des Flos !) - but he looks a complete natural over fences.
Having won on his chasing debut at Cartmel in May, he then took apart a strong field in a decent novice chase at Huntingdon.
He was a revelation that day - travelling strongly throughout and jumping like a cat.
He gave 5lb and a 3 length beating to Pym - and that one then came out and won a handicap at Ascot.
Pym is now rated 149 - so if the Huntingdon form can be believed, it means that Deyrann could be a mid 150s horse.
To be honest, I can believe that - it never fails to amaze me how much horses can improve for a fence - and I’m hopeful he is an example of such.
If he is that good, then he should be right in the mix today.
Clearly there is a lot of guesswork and supposition in a race like this - but simply, the price of Deyrann looks a fair bit too long and as such, he is worth a small play.

3:00

I was quite tempted to tip Thistlecrack in this.
Based purely on official ratings, he is the most likely winner - however, he is now pushing 12, so there is a chance he’s not as good as his rating implies.
However, age is not the main reason why I’ve resisted getting officially involved.
His main target for the season, is the King George on Boxing day - and the prime purpose of todays run, is to get him spot on for that.
Now, even that doesn’t mean he can’t win today - but I much prefer it when the horses I’m supporting are fulling revved up for their race…
The main reason why I considered tipping Thistlecrack, is because I don’t think that Paisley Park will be fully revved up today.
He was the best staying hurdler around, last season - and it could easily be the same again this season - but first time out, he is potentially vulnerable.
The challenge was therefore to find one to take him on with - and Thistlecrack looked most likely.
That said, I could also give a chance to The Worlds End.
He was quite impressive when winning on his return to hurdles at Wetherby and I would expect him to run well again, this afternoon.
The trouble is, he is rated 16lb inferior to Paisley Park - and it’s questionable whether fitness can make that amount of difference.
In truth, it might not have to - because tactics could also play a part.
The Worlds End is likely to force the pace - and if Paisley Park happens to get caught out of his ground, then he could pay a price.
Certainly, I can see ways that Paisley Park could lose - but they do require certain things, of which we currently have no knowledge (ie. fitness and pace). 
I couldn’t support Paisley Park in this - but equally, I can only make a speculative case for taking him on.
In the circumstances, it’s probably a race best watched…

3:35

If I’d not been so tardy updating the official eye catchers, then Black Buble would be on the list.
He caught my eye at Kempton last time, in a decent race won by Fleur Irlandaise.
The mare was different class to her rivals that day (despite starting at 100/1 !) - but Black Buble looked to me, like the second best horse in the race.
He travelled strongly - and after getting caught out when the pace quickened,  stayed on, until weakening after the last.
My feeling was that he needed the run - his second back after his summer break - and that he would be one to be interested in next time (ie. today !).
The case for him, is added to, by the fact the handicapper dropped him 1lb for the run - and that Jonjo O’Neil jnr returns to the saddle.
I wouldn’t just say his 3lb claim is a gift, I’d take him in preference to a number of professionals, who don’t claim !
Suffice to say, in my eyes, Black Buble is running from a mark 4lb lower today - and should be cherry ripe.
Whether he will get ideal conditions, I’m not so sure.
I don’t think the 3 mile trip will be a problem (in fact, he could improve for it) - but his record suggests he would prefer decent ground.
He may get away with it at Newbury - only time will tell.
Whatever, at 20/1, I felt he was worth a small risk.
A case can be made for a few of his rivals: with handicap debutants, Dolphin Square and One for the Team, looking the most dangerous.
However, the market is wise to them (as it generally is !)

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips
Newb 1:50 Oldgrangewood 1pt win 7/1
Newb 2:25 Deyrann de Carjac 0.5pt win 14/1
Newb 3:35 Black Buble 0.5pt win 20/1

Mentions Newb 12:45 Sully D'Oc AA (P )
Newb 3:00 Thistlecrack (C ) 
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions