If there is one course synonymous with TVB - then it’s
Cheltenham…
I’ve had some great days there (and some poor ones too !) -
and it always feels a bit special when they race at Prestbury
park.
Ofcourse, it helps that I’ve got an eye for the horses who tend to
do well at Cheltenham - and that certainly proved to be the case today !
2 tips: 2 winners - very nice :)
First up it was
Repetitio.
The angle on him was that, as a 3 year old, he was receiving a big
weight allowance from all of his rivals.
He is also a relatively
experienced 3 year old - and ultimately, it was the toughness which won him the
day.
He sat in behind the leaders in the early stages - and mounted a
gradual challenge from the home turn.
He still had a couple of lengths to
make up, after jumping the last - but he galloped on bravely - and got there -
just !
Very pleasing.
Next it was Cogry - and he was even
braver.
Under a text book ride from Sam Twiston Davies, he made all and
jumped without blemish.
He was harried in the early stages of the race -
but STD refused to get into a battle.
As a consequence, I knew the horse
would have a bit left turning for home - and that is exactly how it panned
out.
He jumped the second last beautifully - as he’d done all of the
previous fences - but then stumbled and lost momentum.
That may have
finished a lesser horse - but he’s as tough as they come. Sam gathered him up
again and between them, they managed to withstand the final challenge of Rock
the Kasbah,
It was a brilliant race - totally epitomising the
sport.
If you didn’t enjoy that, then you are watching the wrong game
!
That was it, for tips on the day - but there were also a few
Mentions…
Glory and Fortune ran a reasonable race in the opener - but he
was unsuited by the lack of pace in the race.
He’ll prove himself better
than that.
The same is probably true of Stoney Mountain, whose jumping let
him down on his first try over fences.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him
returned to hurdles.
I think I read Molly Carew perfectly - she wants softer
ground.
With a couple of pounds of her mark - then in the right conditions,
she is one to be with next time.
Hurricane Darwin ran a cracking race in the
cross country chase - but ultimately, was no match for the French challengers:
whilst Ask Ben also ran really well in the finale - but like Glory and Fortune
in the opener, was caught out by a lack of race pace, and the ensuing sprint
finish.
No winning Mentions then - but I doubt I’ll get too many
complaints about that :)
TVB.
Monday, 16 December 2019
Daily write-up - Dec 13th
It’s the opening day of the 2 day ‘International’ meeting at
Cheltenham.
They also race over the jumps at both Bangor and Doncaster.
This is the third meeting at Cheltenham so far this season - and amazingly, as with the previous 2, there has been significant rainfall in the days prior.
The ground at Cheltenham had dried out to ‘good to soft’ at the beginning of this week - but there was around 10mm of rain, yesterday.
I expected that to mean that the ground would be ‘soft’ - or even worse - today, however, the official description remains the same - though now with ‘soft’ patches…
I guess we shall see !
The uncertainty regarding the state of the ground has seen me change my mind on a couple of potential tips.
It’s a frustrating situation to be in - but there is nothing that can be done about it - and as you know, I always prefer to air on the side of caution !
Part of the frustration, is because I do like it, when there is decent racing on a Friday.
It’s much easier when I can focus on one card, rather than spreading myself across 2 or 3 (which is often the case on Saturdays).
Obviously, you still need the ‘right’ kind of races - but that was the case today, so finding potential bets, wasn’t too hard.
Deciding which ones should be tips (based on how strongly I fancy them - and the prices available), was a bit trickier - even before I had to factor in the ground ! - though I’ve still managed to find a couple.
Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other races on the Cheltenham card…
Cheltenham
12:10
My initial feeling was that this is quite an open race - but a quote of 4/7 about Chantry House, suggests I may have got that wrong !
In fairness, it’s not an easy race to assess, as all of the runners lack experience.
It’s therefore going to be priced up, primarily on reputation - and Chantry House clearly has quite a big one !
Part of that is down to his connections (he is owned by JP McManus and trained by Nicky Henderson) - and part of it is down to the positive visual impression he made when bolting up on his racehorse debut in March.
That was is a bumper at Warwick, where he comfortably beat Edwardstone. That one has won his 2 hurdle races this season, meaning that the form also has some substance.
In receipt of weight from a a number of his rivals today, he is clearly the one to beat- though whether you’d want to be piling in at 4/7, is a different matter !
I wouldn’t necessarily advocate taking him on - but if he weren’t in the race, Pileon and Glory and Fortune, are the 2 who would interest me most.
The former won a fair bumper at Exeter last March - and should do well over hurdles; whilst the latter has already won over hurdles - and ran well when third in a listed hurdle race last time.
He sets the race standard on the form of that run - and it’s a decent standard - though this does look a potentially strong race.
If there’s a bet in the race, then it is probably Glory and Fortune EW - or without the fav. Though in truth, it is probably a race best watched, with an eye to the future…
12:45
Only 5 go to post for this - but it’s still an fascinating contest.
Pym sets the standard, based on his comfortable win in a good class novice handicap at Ascot, last time out.
He surprised me a little that day - but was a worthy winner.
However, I’m not sure the form justifies his new rating of 149.
He faces 4 dangerous looking rivals - and I’d be more inclined to lay him than back him, at around 11/8.
However, choosing which of his opponents is most likely to beat him, is not an easy task…
I’m drawn to Stoney Mountain, who was a tenacious winner of a high class handicap hurdle at Haydock, last time.
I’m sure he will make a very good chaser in the fullness of time - though this is a tough race to make your fencing debut in.
He may be up to the job - but he may not…
Rockpoint, Imperial Aura and Aye Aye Charlie, are all decent animals - quite capable of wining a race of this nature. It’s just not easy choosing which one of them will do best, today.
Ultimately, I could see any of the 5 runners winning this race - depending on how things pan out.
I’d be relatively happy to oppose Pym - at the prices - accepting, that he could win.
If Stoney Mountains jumping holds up, then in receipt of weight from Pym and Imperial Aura, he should be hard to beat.
However, there is too much guesswork - and insufficient in the prices - to warrant getting heavily involved in the race.
1:20
This is not an easy race to call.
There are 13 runners (one has just been scratched) - and I could give most of them a chance of sorts (depending on how the ground is riding).
I can understand Never Adapt heading the market - and she could easily be much better than her mark of 128.
However, she is impossible to accurately assess - so whilst I would be prepared to take a chance on her at a price, that price would be bigger than 4/1 !
Fanfan du Seuil, is another whom I could be very interested in.
He finished fifth in last seasons Fred Winter hurdle at the festival - and runs today from a mark 3lb lower.
That suggests he is potentially well handicapped - and provided he gets the decent ground he needs, I can see him running very well.
Prior to his run at the festival, Fanfan du seuil had finished second in a Triumph hurdle trial, run at the December Cheltenham meeting (this one !).
There is a similar race run at the November Cheltenham meeting - and Repititio finished third in that race, this year.
It’s impossible to compare the form of the 2 contests - but I suspect they were of a similar level, therefore Repetitio looks quite interesting this afternoon off a mark of 125 (Fanfan is rated 133).
Certainly, he ran really well in that race - and whilst it’s impossible to measure the form, the winner is quite well fancied for this years Triumph hurdle.
On the form alone, I would give Repetitio a chance - but what makes him particularly interesting, is that he is only 3.
At this time of year, 3 year old receive a stone in weight for age allowance from their older rivals.
I’m sure there is evidence to show it is warranted - but it strikes me as a huge amount.
Repetitio is a relatively experienced horse - he’s already notched up 10 career starts: 4 on the flat and 6 over hurdles. That’s 3 more in total than Fanfan (who is only a year older).
He is already quite battled hardened - so the allowance could well turn out to be very generous.
That said, this is far from a 2 - or even 3 - horse race…
I would see Barntown as the main danger - with Peter the Mayo Man and John Constable, 2 outsiders who should be watched very closely in the betting.
A case of sorts can be made for most of the others, as well…
That said, it can be argued that Repetitio is quite well handicapped - even ignoring the age allowance. He’s also got scope for improvement - so at the price, is worth a small risk.
1:55
I had intended to get involved in this race - but that was when I thought the ground was going to be riding softer than looks likely to be the case.
The horse I planned to side with, was Molly Carew.
She really impressed me when winning at Ffos Las, last season - and whilst she has disappointed on her 3 subsequent runs, the 2 most recent ones have been on unsuitably quick ground.
As a result, her mark has dropped, so she is now only 4lb higher than when winning at Ffos Las - and an extra 4lb wouldn’t have stopped her that day !
The case for her would have been strengthened by the fact that 2 of her rivals - Parlour Maid and Definitelyanoscar - want decent ground.
However, it appears they may be in luck !
Chequered View will be tough to beat, whatever the conditions - but her mark has risen 12lb in the last couple of months and the handicapper will get her sooner rather than later…
In short - I would have taken a risk on Mooly Carew - but only if the ground was right.
My guess is that it won’t be - but you should be able to make a better assessment after the first few races (I would want it to be at least ‘soft’, in order to support her).
2:30
Once again, the state of the ground is likely to have a big outcome on the result of this race - though Cogry won’t actually care how it’s riding !
How won the corresponding race 12 months ago - when the ground was good.
However, he also ran a huge race on his seasonal reappearance last time, when the ground was soft (nearer heavy).
He really is totally indifferent to conditions.
He’s also well handicapped and perfectly suited to todays track and trip.
That is born out by the fact he won last years race, when running off precisely the same mark that he races off today.
He only just got the better of Singlefarmpayment that day - and in theory, that one should be able to reverse the form today, on 6lb better terms.
However, Singlefarmpayment needs decent ground (which he may - or may not - get) - and also has a bit of an issue with winning ! (which Cogry certainly does not !).
In truth, this race looks likely to go to one of the top 5 in the betting - the tricky bit is figuring out which one.
West Approach is a potential danger - but he is 10lb worse off with Cogry for the length that he finished in front of him, back in October. That really should be sufficient for Cogry to reverse the form.
Onefortheroadtom could be more of a danger, as he’s 2lb better off with Cogry for a couple of lengths in the same race.
He’s also a younger horse (and hence has greater scope for improvement) - and is blinkered for the first time today.
On the flip side, he’s more than capable of making a mistake - and has been well found in the market.
Rock the Kasbah is the other one of major interest.
He appreciates good ground - and is handicapped to go very close today.
I’ve nothing against him - I just feel that Cogry is more likely to run his race.
In fact, I’ll be very surprised/disappointed if Cogry doesn’t run his race - which is why I’m suggesting him EW.
There is a chance that one or two of the other 4 mentioned, will get the better of him - but I would be very hopeful that he will at least get placed (assuming his jumping - and his luck - hold up !).
Beau de Brizais is the most interesting of the outsiders - but he wants decent ground (which he may get !).
3:05
Whilst it is quite tempting to get involved with this race, I’m going to resist…
The main reason for the temptation, is because I would quite like to take on Yanworth.
He was a high class hurdle a couple of seasons back (he was sent off favourite for the 2017 Champion hurdle) - but he disappointed in that race - setting a trend for the next couple of years.
He was transferred into the care of Enda Bolger, this summer - with the hope that his flame could be rekindled in bank races.
Bolger is an expert in re-invigorating stale horses - and based on his debut run at Punchestown, he may have worked the oracle with Yanworth.
Certainly that’s what the betting would have you believe - but I’m not entirely convinced.
Whilst it’s true that Yanworth won that day - it was only narrowly - and on the book, Neverushacon should reverse the form today.
That said, I don’t see him as Yanworths biggest rival: in fact, I’m not sure who I see as Yanworths biggest rival !
There is a large and varied field assembled for today race - and it’s hard to cut through it.
For a start, there are 4 runners over from France - and it would be foolish to under-estimate any of them.
Easyland looks the best of them - and I would probably make him the most likely race winner - but apparently he has a preference for heavy ground.
By contrast, his stablemate, Amazing Comely wants it quick.
It’ll be interesting to see which one of them the market prefers…
Chic Name also wants quick ground - and granted that, he definitely has a chance.
Rolling Dylan, Kingswell Theatre and Hurricane Darwin are 3 others who are capable of getting involved.
In short, the race just looks too trappy.
If forced, I would maybe have a tiny play on Hurricane Darwin.
I think he has a chance - and odds of 20/1 under-estimate that chance.
3:40
I like the look of Ask Ben in this - but so too, unfortunately, does everyone else !
He ran a massive race at Haydock on his seasonal debut, when finishing fourth behind Stoney Mountain and if he can build on that, he should go very close.
On the flip side, he did have a hard race that day - and he has been raised 3lb for his effort - so there are negatives.
More than that, he faces at least half a dozen potentially dangerous rivals, who could take advantage, if he’s not on the top of his game.
I thought that No Getaway looked the most interesting of them - but he is weak in the betting, which is a concern (particularly for one trained by Dan Skelton).
That said, cases can also be made for Kilbricken Storm, Falco Blitz, Champers on Ice (though he would prefer soft), Goodbye Dancer, Debesteyman and Smackwater Jack.
All have them have a question mark over them (at least one, in some cases !) - but all are also capable of going close…
Ask Ben is certainly the most solid option in the race - but he is also the race favourite.
Ultimately, it came down to prices.
In a 12 runner race, where I reckon 8 have a chance, 4/1 would seem about right.
He was that price in places this morning - but generally a 7/2 shot.
7/2 is now the best price - with 10/3 generally on offer.
There’s no margin at that price - even if he wins !
They also race over the jumps at both Bangor and Doncaster.
This is the third meeting at Cheltenham so far this season - and amazingly, as with the previous 2, there has been significant rainfall in the days prior.
The ground at Cheltenham had dried out to ‘good to soft’ at the beginning of this week - but there was around 10mm of rain, yesterday.
I expected that to mean that the ground would be ‘soft’ - or even worse - today, however, the official description remains the same - though now with ‘soft’ patches…
I guess we shall see !
The uncertainty regarding the state of the ground has seen me change my mind on a couple of potential tips.
It’s a frustrating situation to be in - but there is nothing that can be done about it - and as you know, I always prefer to air on the side of caution !
Part of the frustration, is because I do like it, when there is decent racing on a Friday.
It’s much easier when I can focus on one card, rather than spreading myself across 2 or 3 (which is often the case on Saturdays).
Obviously, you still need the ‘right’ kind of races - but that was the case today, so finding potential bets, wasn’t too hard.
Deciding which ones should be tips (based on how strongly I fancy them - and the prices available), was a bit trickier - even before I had to factor in the ground ! - though I’ve still managed to find a couple.
Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other races on the Cheltenham card…
Cheltenham
12:10
My initial feeling was that this is quite an open race - but a quote of 4/7 about Chantry House, suggests I may have got that wrong !
In fairness, it’s not an easy race to assess, as all of the runners lack experience.
It’s therefore going to be priced up, primarily on reputation - and Chantry House clearly has quite a big one !
Part of that is down to his connections (he is owned by JP McManus and trained by Nicky Henderson) - and part of it is down to the positive visual impression he made when bolting up on his racehorse debut in March.
That was is a bumper at Warwick, where he comfortably beat Edwardstone. That one has won his 2 hurdle races this season, meaning that the form also has some substance.
In receipt of weight from a a number of his rivals today, he is clearly the one to beat- though whether you’d want to be piling in at 4/7, is a different matter !
I wouldn’t necessarily advocate taking him on - but if he weren’t in the race, Pileon and Glory and Fortune, are the 2 who would interest me most.
The former won a fair bumper at Exeter last March - and should do well over hurdles; whilst the latter has already won over hurdles - and ran well when third in a listed hurdle race last time.
He sets the race standard on the form of that run - and it’s a decent standard - though this does look a potentially strong race.
If there’s a bet in the race, then it is probably Glory and Fortune EW - or without the fav. Though in truth, it is probably a race best watched, with an eye to the future…
12:45
Only 5 go to post for this - but it’s still an fascinating contest.
Pym sets the standard, based on his comfortable win in a good class novice handicap at Ascot, last time out.
He surprised me a little that day - but was a worthy winner.
However, I’m not sure the form justifies his new rating of 149.
He faces 4 dangerous looking rivals - and I’d be more inclined to lay him than back him, at around 11/8.
However, choosing which of his opponents is most likely to beat him, is not an easy task…
I’m drawn to Stoney Mountain, who was a tenacious winner of a high class handicap hurdle at Haydock, last time.
I’m sure he will make a very good chaser in the fullness of time - though this is a tough race to make your fencing debut in.
He may be up to the job - but he may not…
Rockpoint, Imperial Aura and Aye Aye Charlie, are all decent animals - quite capable of wining a race of this nature. It’s just not easy choosing which one of them will do best, today.
Ultimately, I could see any of the 5 runners winning this race - depending on how things pan out.
I’d be relatively happy to oppose Pym - at the prices - accepting, that he could win.
If Stoney Mountains jumping holds up, then in receipt of weight from Pym and Imperial Aura, he should be hard to beat.
However, there is too much guesswork - and insufficient in the prices - to warrant getting heavily involved in the race.
1:20
This is not an easy race to call.
There are 13 runners (one has just been scratched) - and I could give most of them a chance of sorts (depending on how the ground is riding).
I can understand Never Adapt heading the market - and she could easily be much better than her mark of 128.
However, she is impossible to accurately assess - so whilst I would be prepared to take a chance on her at a price, that price would be bigger than 4/1 !
Fanfan du Seuil, is another whom I could be very interested in.
He finished fifth in last seasons Fred Winter hurdle at the festival - and runs today from a mark 3lb lower.
That suggests he is potentially well handicapped - and provided he gets the decent ground he needs, I can see him running very well.
Prior to his run at the festival, Fanfan du seuil had finished second in a Triumph hurdle trial, run at the December Cheltenham meeting (this one !).
There is a similar race run at the November Cheltenham meeting - and Repititio finished third in that race, this year.
It’s impossible to compare the form of the 2 contests - but I suspect they were of a similar level, therefore Repetitio looks quite interesting this afternoon off a mark of 125 (Fanfan is rated 133).
Certainly, he ran really well in that race - and whilst it’s impossible to measure the form, the winner is quite well fancied for this years Triumph hurdle.
On the form alone, I would give Repetitio a chance - but what makes him particularly interesting, is that he is only 3.
At this time of year, 3 year old receive a stone in weight for age allowance from their older rivals.
I’m sure there is evidence to show it is warranted - but it strikes me as a huge amount.
Repetitio is a relatively experienced horse - he’s already notched up 10 career starts: 4 on the flat and 6 over hurdles. That’s 3 more in total than Fanfan (who is only a year older).
He is already quite battled hardened - so the allowance could well turn out to be very generous.
That said, this is far from a 2 - or even 3 - horse race…
I would see Barntown as the main danger - with Peter the Mayo Man and John Constable, 2 outsiders who should be watched very closely in the betting.
A case of sorts can be made for most of the others, as well…
That said, it can be argued that Repetitio is quite well handicapped - even ignoring the age allowance. He’s also got scope for improvement - so at the price, is worth a small risk.
1:55
I had intended to get involved in this race - but that was when I thought the ground was going to be riding softer than looks likely to be the case.
The horse I planned to side with, was Molly Carew.
She really impressed me when winning at Ffos Las, last season - and whilst she has disappointed on her 3 subsequent runs, the 2 most recent ones have been on unsuitably quick ground.
As a result, her mark has dropped, so she is now only 4lb higher than when winning at Ffos Las - and an extra 4lb wouldn’t have stopped her that day !
The case for her would have been strengthened by the fact that 2 of her rivals - Parlour Maid and Definitelyanoscar - want decent ground.
However, it appears they may be in luck !
Chequered View will be tough to beat, whatever the conditions - but her mark has risen 12lb in the last couple of months and the handicapper will get her sooner rather than later…
In short - I would have taken a risk on Mooly Carew - but only if the ground was right.
My guess is that it won’t be - but you should be able to make a better assessment after the first few races (I would want it to be at least ‘soft’, in order to support her).
2:30
Once again, the state of the ground is likely to have a big outcome on the result of this race - though Cogry won’t actually care how it’s riding !
How won the corresponding race 12 months ago - when the ground was good.
However, he also ran a huge race on his seasonal reappearance last time, when the ground was soft (nearer heavy).
He really is totally indifferent to conditions.
He’s also well handicapped and perfectly suited to todays track and trip.
That is born out by the fact he won last years race, when running off precisely the same mark that he races off today.
He only just got the better of Singlefarmpayment that day - and in theory, that one should be able to reverse the form today, on 6lb better terms.
However, Singlefarmpayment needs decent ground (which he may - or may not - get) - and also has a bit of an issue with winning ! (which Cogry certainly does not !).
In truth, this race looks likely to go to one of the top 5 in the betting - the tricky bit is figuring out which one.
West Approach is a potential danger - but he is 10lb worse off with Cogry for the length that he finished in front of him, back in October. That really should be sufficient for Cogry to reverse the form.
Onefortheroadtom could be more of a danger, as he’s 2lb better off with Cogry for a couple of lengths in the same race.
He’s also a younger horse (and hence has greater scope for improvement) - and is blinkered for the first time today.
On the flip side, he’s more than capable of making a mistake - and has been well found in the market.
Rock the Kasbah is the other one of major interest.
He appreciates good ground - and is handicapped to go very close today.
I’ve nothing against him - I just feel that Cogry is more likely to run his race.
In fact, I’ll be very surprised/disappointed if Cogry doesn’t run his race - which is why I’m suggesting him EW.
There is a chance that one or two of the other 4 mentioned, will get the better of him - but I would be very hopeful that he will at least get placed (assuming his jumping - and his luck - hold up !).
Beau de Brizais is the most interesting of the outsiders - but he wants decent ground (which he may get !).
3:05
Whilst it is quite tempting to get involved with this race, I’m going to resist…
The main reason for the temptation, is because I would quite like to take on Yanworth.
He was a high class hurdle a couple of seasons back (he was sent off favourite for the 2017 Champion hurdle) - but he disappointed in that race - setting a trend for the next couple of years.
He was transferred into the care of Enda Bolger, this summer - with the hope that his flame could be rekindled in bank races.
Bolger is an expert in re-invigorating stale horses - and based on his debut run at Punchestown, he may have worked the oracle with Yanworth.
Certainly that’s what the betting would have you believe - but I’m not entirely convinced.
Whilst it’s true that Yanworth won that day - it was only narrowly - and on the book, Neverushacon should reverse the form today.
That said, I don’t see him as Yanworths biggest rival: in fact, I’m not sure who I see as Yanworths biggest rival !
There is a large and varied field assembled for today race - and it’s hard to cut through it.
For a start, there are 4 runners over from France - and it would be foolish to under-estimate any of them.
Easyland looks the best of them - and I would probably make him the most likely race winner - but apparently he has a preference for heavy ground.
By contrast, his stablemate, Amazing Comely wants it quick.
It’ll be interesting to see which one of them the market prefers…
Chic Name also wants quick ground - and granted that, he definitely has a chance.
Rolling Dylan, Kingswell Theatre and Hurricane Darwin are 3 others who are capable of getting involved.
In short, the race just looks too trappy.
If forced, I would maybe have a tiny play on Hurricane Darwin.
I think he has a chance - and odds of 20/1 under-estimate that chance.
3:40
I like the look of Ask Ben in this - but so too, unfortunately, does everyone else !
He ran a massive race at Haydock on his seasonal debut, when finishing fourth behind Stoney Mountain and if he can build on that, he should go very close.
On the flip side, he did have a hard race that day - and he has been raised 3lb for his effort - so there are negatives.
More than that, he faces at least half a dozen potentially dangerous rivals, who could take advantage, if he’s not on the top of his game.
I thought that No Getaway looked the most interesting of them - but he is weak in the betting, which is a concern (particularly for one trained by Dan Skelton).
That said, cases can also be made for Kilbricken Storm, Falco Blitz, Champers on Ice (though he would prefer soft), Goodbye Dancer, Debesteyman and Smackwater Jack.
All have them have a question mark over them (at least one, in some cases !) - but all are also capable of going close…
Ask Ben is certainly the most solid option in the race - but he is also the race favourite.
Ultimately, it came down to prices.
In a 12 runner race, where I reckon 8 have a chance, 4/1 would seem about right.
He was that price in places this morning - but generally a 7/2 shot.
7/2 is now the best price - with 10/3 generally on offer.
There’s no margin at that price - even if he wins !
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:20 Repetitio 0.5pt win 10/1Chel 2:30 Cogry 0.75pt EW 5/1
Mentions
Chel 12:10 Glory and Fortune (w/o fav)
Chel 12:45 Stoney Mountain (O )
Chel 1:55 Molly Carew (C )
Chel 3:05 Hurricane Darwin (S )
Chel 3:40 Ask Ben (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:20 Repetitio 0.5pt win 10/1Chel 2:30 Cogry 0.75pt EW 5/1
Mentions
Chel 12:10 Glory and Fortune (w/o fav)
Chel 12:45 Stoney Mountain (O )
Chel 1:55 Molly Carew (C )
Chel 3:05 Hurricane Darwin (S )
Chel 3:40 Ask Ben (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Daily write-up - Dec 8th
Assuming the weather doesn’t intervene, there will be 4 NH
meetings this afternoon: at Huntingdon and Kelso in the UK: plus Punchestown and
Cork, in Ireland.
When I had an early look at the cards, in the middle of last week, I was optimistic that there would be a few opportunities today - but unfortunately that’s not how it’s panned out.
There are open graded races at Huntingdon, Punchestown and Cork - but fields for the feature events at Huntingdon and Cork have cut up quite badly; and whilst nine go to post for the grade 1 John Durkan chase at Punchestown, 4 of them are trained by Willie Mullins, including the hot favourite Min.
In short, non the of days 3 big races, lend themselves to tipping/betting.
More than that, the undercards at all 3 meetings don’t contain any suitable races for tipping.
As a consequence, the most likely source of tips, was Kelso.
There are 2 possible races there, in the shape of the Borders National - and one of my beloved veterans chases !
I was half tempted by both - but don’t quite feel strongly enough about anything, to get involved (officially speaking).
It is therefore a ‘no tips’ day - though I do have views on all of the days main races - and therefore a few Mentions (a couple of which, are quite creative !), which you may - or may not - choose to get involved with…
Kelso
1:15
Sandy Thompson has won the last 4 runnings of this race - and his Laventatra has been installed the race favourite.
Unlike Thompsons previous winners of the race, Laventara is a 7 year old, on his way up through the ranks - and he certainly has a chance of completing the trainers nap hand.
The trouble is, this is a very open race - and it’s hard to find a path into it.
In these valuable, lower grade events. It’s not uncommon for a horse to have been ‘plotted up’: though trying to spot them - and then get on them, is a different matter !
Very few of the runners can be safely eliminated from calculations - though I’m sure that by the off, the market will be giving plenty of clues !
Without that knowledge, I’ll offer 3 for serious consideration: Big River; Weststreet and Achill Road Boy.
I tipped Big River last time he ran, in a much better race than this, at Cheltenham.
I was pretty keen on him too - but he ran very poorly.
I’ve no idea why: it could have been a physical issue (he’s had a few) - or it could have been something else.
Clearly, that run has to be ignored if you are going to support him today - but cheekpieces have been applied for the first time (which I think is a good move) - and simply, he could outclass todays rivals.
I’ve managed to back him at 10 on the exchanges - and he’s worth a risk at that price.
Weststreet and Achill Road Boy don’t have Big Rivers class.
They are just decent low grade stayers, who looked like they have been targeted at this race.
Weststreet has been sent up from Lambourn by Oliver Sherwood - and has a decent 5lb claimer on board.
I would expect him to run a fair race.
The chance of Achill Road Boy isn’t quite as obvious - but I like him a touch more.
He’s had 2 runs over hurdles to get him fit - and hails from the stable of Stuart Coltherd, which is currently in very good form.
At around 16/1, he is definitely worth a small risk.
2:15
Of all the races being run today, this was the one where I felt I was most likely to find a tip.
I therefore spent quite a lot of time, turning it round, but just couldn’t get the winner to drop out !
The problem is, I fancy one of the runners quite a bit more than the rest - but I can see 3 issues for him (which is at least 2 more than I’d like !).
Unlike the rest of the field, Claud and Goldie is a potentially progressive chaser.
He’s only run 6 times under rules - and has shown improved form, every time he’s run.
That’s a very unusual profile for a horse running in a veterans chase - as generally, they are horses on the downgrade, whose best days are almost certainly behind them.
The form of Claud and Goldies 2 most recent runs, stand up to close scrutiny - and i really could fancy him - if it weren’t for a few little issue..!
Firstly, he is unproven on heavy ground (which is what he will encounter today).
He’s not certain to have an issue with it - but he’s not certain to appreciate it, either.
Secondly, he improved last season, as he was stepped up in trip.
His best from was over 3 miles - and he was staying on, over that trip.
He could therefore be outpaced over todays trip of 2m6f.
Thirdly, he’s not had a run this season - and he comes from a relatively small yard.
He showed little on his seasonal debut last season - so there must be a chance, he will need the outing…
You can argue it all ways: if he does handle the heavy ground, that could well see him stamina come into play.
However, heavy ground when you are not 100% fit, is unlikely to end well !
Again, the market will likely advise on his readiness and ability to handle underfoot conditions - but without that knowledge, I can only make him a Mention.
Huntingdon
2:00
There are 6 runners in this race - but on known form, only 3 of them should count.
In fact, with Le Bague au Roi rated 18lb inferior to Aso - but receiving just 6, it can be argued that only 2 should count !
More than that, Le Bague is unlikely to appreciate the relatively quick Huntingdon ground - and despite the fact I’m a big fan of the horse, I would be quite happy to take her on today.
The trouble is, there are only 2 you can realistically take her on with - and they are priced up at 2/1 and 5/2…
Choosing between Top Notch and Aso, isn’t easy.
The official handicapper makes Aso the better, by 7lb. However, that may be flattering - and he’s not likely to be quite as well suited to today test, as Top Notch is.
In truth, if you could define the perfect race for Top Notch, then this would be it.
2 miles 4 furlongs, on decent ground, round a sharp right handed track.
The horse isn’t quite a grade 1 animal over fences - but he’s right at the top end of the grade 2 spectrum - and given ideal conditions, he will always take some beating.
In fairness, conditions should be too big an issue for Aso - the only proviso being that he would prefer softer ground.
It’s hard to spit the pair - and in all likelihood, race pace or a mistake, will be the difference.
I’d slightly favour Top Notch - but so too would be betting, so there is no angle there.
Where there may be an angle, is in a reverse forecast.
I reckon you should get around 5/2 about them finishing first and second, in either order - and that is certainly worth considering.
Punchestown
1:50
If Min is fully tuned up for this, I really can’t see him getting beaten.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and in near ideal conditions, he should really repeat the dose this afternoon.
The slight doubt, is whether he will be fully tuned - but even if he’s just 90% ready, he’s likely to be too good for his rivals.
On official ratings, Presenting Percy is the one most likely to chase him home - but I’ll be surprised if this isn’t just a pipe opener for him.
The distance is his minimum - and the race is probably being used to put an edge on him for a run in the Savills Chase, over the Christmas period.
That’s also likely to be the case with Anibale Fly - which means realistic opponents for Min are a bit thin of the ground !
Shattered Love finished second to him in last years renewal of the race - and on heavy ground, she would definitely have a chance.
However, the ground isn’t heavy, so she is likely to be outpaced.
Willie Mullins saddles 3 in addition to Min - and it’s possible to make a tentative case for each of them.
They are all relatively young and unexposed - so a big step up on form isn’t impossible.
However, a big step up in form would be required to trouble Min.
All this said, the one I think most likely to chase home Min today, is Snow Falcon.
He’s not go the class to beat the favourite - but he will get ideal conditions - and should be fighting fit.
He can be backed at 12/1 in the ‘w/o Min’ market - and that definitely makes some appeal.
Cork
2:35
The feature race on the card effectively looks a match between Ballyoisin and Cilaos Emery.
I was quite keen on Ballyoisin when he won last time at Navan - and he’s more than capable of following up this afternoon.
That said, he faces a potentially high class opponent in the shape of Cilaos Emery.
The latter hasn’t seen much action for the past 2 seasons - but he was top class over hurdles, and his recent win at Naas, suggested he might be even better over fences.
He’ll probably need to be, if he’s going to beat Ballyoisin this afternoon - as he sets a very high standard.
I suspect this race will boil down to jumping.
Ballyoisin is an exceptional fencer - and it’s likely to be a real challenge for the relatively inexperienced Cilaos Emery to live with him over the fences.
If he can, then Cilaos Emery may be able to pounce after the last - but I have a feeling that Ballyoisins jumping may have broken him by that point.
It should be a fascinating watch - but it’s not a betting race.
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Mentions
Kels 1:15 Big River (S ) & Achill Road Boy (O )
Kels 2:15 Claud and Goldie (C )
Hunt 2:00 Top Notch & Aso (R/F)
Punch 1:50 Snow Falcon (w/o Min)
Cord 2:35 Ballyoisin (P )The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
When I had an early look at the cards, in the middle of last week, I was optimistic that there would be a few opportunities today - but unfortunately that’s not how it’s panned out.
There are open graded races at Huntingdon, Punchestown and Cork - but fields for the feature events at Huntingdon and Cork have cut up quite badly; and whilst nine go to post for the grade 1 John Durkan chase at Punchestown, 4 of them are trained by Willie Mullins, including the hot favourite Min.
In short, non the of days 3 big races, lend themselves to tipping/betting.
More than that, the undercards at all 3 meetings don’t contain any suitable races for tipping.
As a consequence, the most likely source of tips, was Kelso.
There are 2 possible races there, in the shape of the Borders National - and one of my beloved veterans chases !
I was half tempted by both - but don’t quite feel strongly enough about anything, to get involved (officially speaking).
It is therefore a ‘no tips’ day - though I do have views on all of the days main races - and therefore a few Mentions (a couple of which, are quite creative !), which you may - or may not - choose to get involved with…
Kelso
1:15
Sandy Thompson has won the last 4 runnings of this race - and his Laventatra has been installed the race favourite.
Unlike Thompsons previous winners of the race, Laventara is a 7 year old, on his way up through the ranks - and he certainly has a chance of completing the trainers nap hand.
The trouble is, this is a very open race - and it’s hard to find a path into it.
In these valuable, lower grade events. It’s not uncommon for a horse to have been ‘plotted up’: though trying to spot them - and then get on them, is a different matter !
Very few of the runners can be safely eliminated from calculations - though I’m sure that by the off, the market will be giving plenty of clues !
Without that knowledge, I’ll offer 3 for serious consideration: Big River; Weststreet and Achill Road Boy.
I tipped Big River last time he ran, in a much better race than this, at Cheltenham.
I was pretty keen on him too - but he ran very poorly.
I’ve no idea why: it could have been a physical issue (he’s had a few) - or it could have been something else.
Clearly, that run has to be ignored if you are going to support him today - but cheekpieces have been applied for the first time (which I think is a good move) - and simply, he could outclass todays rivals.
I’ve managed to back him at 10 on the exchanges - and he’s worth a risk at that price.
Weststreet and Achill Road Boy don’t have Big Rivers class.
They are just decent low grade stayers, who looked like they have been targeted at this race.
Weststreet has been sent up from Lambourn by Oliver Sherwood - and has a decent 5lb claimer on board.
I would expect him to run a fair race.
The chance of Achill Road Boy isn’t quite as obvious - but I like him a touch more.
He’s had 2 runs over hurdles to get him fit - and hails from the stable of Stuart Coltherd, which is currently in very good form.
At around 16/1, he is definitely worth a small risk.
2:15
Of all the races being run today, this was the one where I felt I was most likely to find a tip.
I therefore spent quite a lot of time, turning it round, but just couldn’t get the winner to drop out !
The problem is, I fancy one of the runners quite a bit more than the rest - but I can see 3 issues for him (which is at least 2 more than I’d like !).
Unlike the rest of the field, Claud and Goldie is a potentially progressive chaser.
He’s only run 6 times under rules - and has shown improved form, every time he’s run.
That’s a very unusual profile for a horse running in a veterans chase - as generally, they are horses on the downgrade, whose best days are almost certainly behind them.
The form of Claud and Goldies 2 most recent runs, stand up to close scrutiny - and i really could fancy him - if it weren’t for a few little issue..!
Firstly, he is unproven on heavy ground (which is what he will encounter today).
He’s not certain to have an issue with it - but he’s not certain to appreciate it, either.
Secondly, he improved last season, as he was stepped up in trip.
His best from was over 3 miles - and he was staying on, over that trip.
He could therefore be outpaced over todays trip of 2m6f.
Thirdly, he’s not had a run this season - and he comes from a relatively small yard.
He showed little on his seasonal debut last season - so there must be a chance, he will need the outing…
You can argue it all ways: if he does handle the heavy ground, that could well see him stamina come into play.
However, heavy ground when you are not 100% fit, is unlikely to end well !
Again, the market will likely advise on his readiness and ability to handle underfoot conditions - but without that knowledge, I can only make him a Mention.
Huntingdon
2:00
There are 6 runners in this race - but on known form, only 3 of them should count.
In fact, with Le Bague au Roi rated 18lb inferior to Aso - but receiving just 6, it can be argued that only 2 should count !
More than that, Le Bague is unlikely to appreciate the relatively quick Huntingdon ground - and despite the fact I’m a big fan of the horse, I would be quite happy to take her on today.
The trouble is, there are only 2 you can realistically take her on with - and they are priced up at 2/1 and 5/2…
Choosing between Top Notch and Aso, isn’t easy.
The official handicapper makes Aso the better, by 7lb. However, that may be flattering - and he’s not likely to be quite as well suited to today test, as Top Notch is.
In truth, if you could define the perfect race for Top Notch, then this would be it.
2 miles 4 furlongs, on decent ground, round a sharp right handed track.
The horse isn’t quite a grade 1 animal over fences - but he’s right at the top end of the grade 2 spectrum - and given ideal conditions, he will always take some beating.
In fairness, conditions should be too big an issue for Aso - the only proviso being that he would prefer softer ground.
It’s hard to spit the pair - and in all likelihood, race pace or a mistake, will be the difference.
I’d slightly favour Top Notch - but so too would be betting, so there is no angle there.
Where there may be an angle, is in a reverse forecast.
I reckon you should get around 5/2 about them finishing first and second, in either order - and that is certainly worth considering.
Punchestown
1:50
If Min is fully tuned up for this, I really can’t see him getting beaten.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and in near ideal conditions, he should really repeat the dose this afternoon.
The slight doubt, is whether he will be fully tuned - but even if he’s just 90% ready, he’s likely to be too good for his rivals.
On official ratings, Presenting Percy is the one most likely to chase him home - but I’ll be surprised if this isn’t just a pipe opener for him.
The distance is his minimum - and the race is probably being used to put an edge on him for a run in the Savills Chase, over the Christmas period.
That’s also likely to be the case with Anibale Fly - which means realistic opponents for Min are a bit thin of the ground !
Shattered Love finished second to him in last years renewal of the race - and on heavy ground, she would definitely have a chance.
However, the ground isn’t heavy, so she is likely to be outpaced.
Willie Mullins saddles 3 in addition to Min - and it’s possible to make a tentative case for each of them.
They are all relatively young and unexposed - so a big step up on form isn’t impossible.
However, a big step up in form would be required to trouble Min.
All this said, the one I think most likely to chase home Min today, is Snow Falcon.
He’s not go the class to beat the favourite - but he will get ideal conditions - and should be fighting fit.
He can be backed at 12/1 in the ‘w/o Min’ market - and that definitely makes some appeal.
Cork
2:35
The feature race on the card effectively looks a match between Ballyoisin and Cilaos Emery.
I was quite keen on Ballyoisin when he won last time at Navan - and he’s more than capable of following up this afternoon.
That said, he faces a potentially high class opponent in the shape of Cilaos Emery.
The latter hasn’t seen much action for the past 2 seasons - but he was top class over hurdles, and his recent win at Naas, suggested he might be even better over fences.
He’ll probably need to be, if he’s going to beat Ballyoisin this afternoon - as he sets a very high standard.
I suspect this race will boil down to jumping.
Ballyoisin is an exceptional fencer - and it’s likely to be a real challenge for the relatively inexperienced Cilaos Emery to live with him over the fences.
If he can, then Cilaos Emery may be able to pounce after the last - but I have a feeling that Ballyoisins jumping may have broken him by that point.
It should be a fascinating watch - but it’s not a betting race.
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Mentions
Kels 1:15 Big River (S ) & Achill Road Boy (O )
Kels 2:15 Claud and Goldie (C )
Hunt 2:00 Top Notch & Aso (R/F)
Punch 1:50 Snow Falcon (w/o Min)
Cord 2:35 Ballyoisin (P )The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
The victory of Acting Lass this afternoon, meant that from a
P&L perspective, today was a bit of a non event…
Obviously that’s a little disappointing when you put in as much effort in, as I did - but equally, it’s a lot better than coming out of the day with a loss !
And in truth, that was a real possibility.
Most of the tips ran poorly - without any obvious reason - so it’s a bit ironic, that the ‘enigmatic’ Acting Lass, was the one who saved things…
I’m sure that those of you who are familiar with the write-up will have realised that I was particularly keen on his chances.
In truth, he probably should have been a 2pt tip - but it was hard enough tipping him early, with just 1pt on - bearing in mind the strength of the market.
The issue was that the race in which he ran, took place away from the 2 main venues - though in my defence it was a class 2 contest - so comparable with the Grand Sefton at Aintree, and the London National at Sandown.
It’s often a dilemma, deciding whether I can tip in a race or not - but I do limit myself to class 3 or above - and the reality is, trying to get everything right on a day like today, is very hard…
Anyway, in the race itself, Acting Lass was always travelling nicely - so much so, that even when he made a shocking blunder at the third last, I was still optimistic that he would be able to recover and win.
And that’s exactly what happened !
As I suspected this morning, he’s a fair bit better than the opponents he faced today…
Alas, things didn’t go so well with the days other tips.
Mount Mews gave away the outside to no one, at Aintree.
He took up the running approaching the second last - but was soon challenged and I wasn’t surprised that he had nothing left to give.
It wasn’t a great effort.
Malaya was similarly disappointing at Sandown.
She had virtually the same conditions as when winning last seasons Imperial cup - but she found nothing when put under pressure.
There was no obvious reason for such a poor run (accepting that she had to carry more weight today).
Down the Highway was very well backed at Chepstow - and strong in the market right up to the off - but he was also disappointing, with no obvious reason.
Didero Vallis and Federici were my 2 stabs at the Grand Sefton - and they at least ran fair races.
The latter led until tiring, after jumping the third last; whilst the former was always close to the pace - though never seemingly going quite as well as those around him.
Ultimately, Didero finished fifth - whilst Federici was pulled up.
Get on the Yager was the final tip on the day - and he actually ran really well.
However, there was a horrible incident with Houblon des Obeaux on the final bend of the first circuit - and the stewards attempted to stop the race, when the runners came back round.
Unfortunately, the jockeys who were still in with a chance, didn’t respond to the yellow flag and raced on, jumping the last 2 fences.
A void race and a 10 day suspension for all of them, was kind of inevitable…
As for the days Mentions:
Then Grand Sancy ran a fair race in the Henry VIII novice chase - but was no match for shock winner, Espirit du Large.
Defi de Seul on the other hand, just managed to get the better of Un De Sceux, in a Tingle Creek which lived up to its billing - and more !
Vintage Clouds clearly has an issue with the Aintree fences.
I was prepared to forgive him a first fence fall in the National - but it was obvious today, that he just doesn’t like the place (some horses don’t).
That’s not the case with Walk in the Mill and he was very game in recording back-to-back wins in the Becher chase.
Mianna never featured in the mares juvenile hurdle: and Might Bite didn’t feature for long in the Many Clouds chase !
He decanted Nico de Boinville at the fourth fence, allowing Native River to saunter home without ever seeing a rival.
Finally, just a quick word of congratulations, for Neil.
He puts up his ‘Trend bets for the summer’ (sic !) in the forum every Saturday - and whilst he’s had success in the past, I don’t think he’s ever matched todays performance.
He effectively had selections in 5 races - and managed to nominate a 16/1 winner; a 13/2 winner - and a third placed 50/1 shot, EW !
Almost TVB-esque !!
Take a bow, Neil :)
TVB.
Obviously that’s a little disappointing when you put in as much effort in, as I did - but equally, it’s a lot better than coming out of the day with a loss !
And in truth, that was a real possibility.
Most of the tips ran poorly - without any obvious reason - so it’s a bit ironic, that the ‘enigmatic’ Acting Lass, was the one who saved things…
I’m sure that those of you who are familiar with the write-up will have realised that I was particularly keen on his chances.
In truth, he probably should have been a 2pt tip - but it was hard enough tipping him early, with just 1pt on - bearing in mind the strength of the market.
The issue was that the race in which he ran, took place away from the 2 main venues - though in my defence it was a class 2 contest - so comparable with the Grand Sefton at Aintree, and the London National at Sandown.
It’s often a dilemma, deciding whether I can tip in a race or not - but I do limit myself to class 3 or above - and the reality is, trying to get everything right on a day like today, is very hard…
Anyway, in the race itself, Acting Lass was always travelling nicely - so much so, that even when he made a shocking blunder at the third last, I was still optimistic that he would be able to recover and win.
And that’s exactly what happened !
As I suspected this morning, he’s a fair bit better than the opponents he faced today…
Alas, things didn’t go so well with the days other tips.
Mount Mews gave away the outside to no one, at Aintree.
He took up the running approaching the second last - but was soon challenged and I wasn’t surprised that he had nothing left to give.
It wasn’t a great effort.
Malaya was similarly disappointing at Sandown.
She had virtually the same conditions as when winning last seasons Imperial cup - but she found nothing when put under pressure.
There was no obvious reason for such a poor run (accepting that she had to carry more weight today).
Down the Highway was very well backed at Chepstow - and strong in the market right up to the off - but he was also disappointing, with no obvious reason.
Didero Vallis and Federici were my 2 stabs at the Grand Sefton - and they at least ran fair races.
The latter led until tiring, after jumping the third last; whilst the former was always close to the pace - though never seemingly going quite as well as those around him.
Ultimately, Didero finished fifth - whilst Federici was pulled up.
Get on the Yager was the final tip on the day - and he actually ran really well.
However, there was a horrible incident with Houblon des Obeaux on the final bend of the first circuit - and the stewards attempted to stop the race, when the runners came back round.
Unfortunately, the jockeys who were still in with a chance, didn’t respond to the yellow flag and raced on, jumping the last 2 fences.
A void race and a 10 day suspension for all of them, was kind of inevitable…
As for the days Mentions:
Then Grand Sancy ran a fair race in the Henry VIII novice chase - but was no match for shock winner, Espirit du Large.
Defi de Seul on the other hand, just managed to get the better of Un De Sceux, in a Tingle Creek which lived up to its billing - and more !
Vintage Clouds clearly has an issue with the Aintree fences.
I was prepared to forgive him a first fence fall in the National - but it was obvious today, that he just doesn’t like the place (some horses don’t).
That’s not the case with Walk in the Mill and he was very game in recording back-to-back wins in the Becher chase.
Mianna never featured in the mares juvenile hurdle: and Might Bite didn’t feature for long in the Many Clouds chase !
He decanted Nico de Boinville at the fourth fence, allowing Native River to saunter home without ever seeing a rival.
Finally, just a quick word of congratulations, for Neil.
He puts up his ‘Trend bets for the summer’ (sic !) in the forum every Saturday - and whilst he’s had success in the past, I don’t think he’s ever matched todays performance.
He effectively had selections in 5 races - and managed to nominate a 16/1 winner; a 13/2 winner - and a third placed 50/1 shot, EW !
Almost TVB-esque !!
Take a bow, Neil :)
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 7th
There are 5 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Aintree, Chepstow
and Wetherby in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.
It really is an incredible days racing - with both quality and quantity !
The days mains meetings are at Sandown and Aintree - but there are excellent supporting cards at both Chepstow and Navan (and Wetherby isn’t too bad, either !)
It’s the kind of day, when I could have spent hours going through the races at each meeting - but alas, I don’t have time to do that.
Instead, I’ve focused on the races which are being shown on terrestrial TV - along with a few others, where I strongly fancied something.
Choosing what to tip today, really wasn’t easy.
I had a pretty long list of ‘possibles’, so lets hope I’m opted for the right ones.
Ofcourse, most of the others, are Mentions (or potential savers), so the keen amongst you, can cover all eventualities - if that’s how you like to play things.
Anyway, I’ve no time for rambling - there are a lot of races for me to preview.
Here is the rationale for todays tips - plus my thoughts on as many of the days other races that I could find time to cover !!
Sandown
1:50
If the ground were riding quick, I’d be very keen on Nubre Negra is this.
He’s looked a completely different horse this season, having been sent over fences.
His slick jumping is as good as I’ve seen from any novice this season - and the tough Sandown track should really play to his strengths,
However, yesterdays rain could cause him some issues.
He has a marked preference for decent ground - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is anywhere near as effective on rain softened ground.
Even more of an issue for him, is the fact that his 3 main rivals are all likely to relish conditions.
Summerville Boy has shown his best form on heavy ground, so it can’t be too soft for him; whilst neither Torpillo or Grand Sancy, should be inconvenienced by soft ground.
Summerville Boy and Torpillo have both won their only start over fences - with the latter looking the more accomplished jumper.
In receipt of a 4 year old allowance, he is probably the one to beat - though I can resist him at a price of 2/1.
It would be more tempting to take a chance on Grand Sancy.
He is making his chasing debut - but is the second highest rated over hurdles (behind Summerville boy), so if he can translate his form to the bigger obstacles, he should go close.
It’s a tough race to make your chasing debut in however, so on balance, I think I’ll just watch…
2:25
Although it grates a little, taking 4/1 in a big field Saturday handicap, I want to be with Malaya in this…
I tipped her last March, when she won the Imperial cup over todays course and distance.
That was a much stronger contest than todays - and she won well, despite making a complete mess of the second last hurdle.
She gets to run off a mark just 4lb higher today - and simply, if she is in the same form, she should win.
She’s already had a couple of runs this season: firstly over fences at Market Rasen - and then back over hurdles at Ascot.
The Market Rasen race didn’t go too well - as she apparently cut herself.
That’s probably why she was returned to hurdles at Ascot, where she never real featured - but apparently was a little short on work that day.
As we are aware, Paul Nichols likes to farm these big Saturday handicaps - and he will know that she is handicapped to win this one.
I’ll be amazed if she is not spot on today - and if she is, then she’s going to be hard to beat.
Protektorat looks the main danger, as an unexposed 4 year old; though the Nichols trained Ashutor is also a slight worry (particularly if he is well backed).
Smarty Wild and Song for Someone are 2 others for whom cases can be made - but in truth, this isn’t as strong a race as you would expect, for the prize money on offer.
3:00
I’m half tempted to get involved in this, simply because I think Defi du Seuil is too short, at 6/4…
I’m a big fan of the horse - and I won’t be overly surprised if he does win. However, this is a competitive race - and he really shouldn’t be so short in the betting.
In fact, based on his last run at Cheltenham, he could have his work cut out to beat Politologue.
He came out on top by just over a length that day - but the race was run to suit him (Politologue made the running) and he is 3lb worse off today.
The suggestion is that Politologue should get his revenge - and whether he does or not, it’s certainly hard to justify the discrepancy in their prices…
Similarly, it’s hard to justify Un de Sceux being a much bigger price that Defi, when he is rated 8lb superior !
He may be heading to his 12th birthday, but there is no reason to think that his powers are significantly diminished…
In simple terms, Defi is favourite because he has greater potential than his 2 main rivals…
If the ground was riding a bit quicker, then I’d actually be tempted to take a chance on Sceau Royal.
He’s previously shown himself effective at Sandown - and is a pure 2 miler.
However, he does have a preference for decent ground - and the lack of a run this season, may also count against him.
It’ll be a little surprising if any of the other 4 are good enough to win - though they are all smart performers in their own right.
If you asked me to name the most likely winner, I’d go for Defi du Seuil - but I’d wanted at least 2/1 - maybe even 5/2 - before I could consider supporting him.
3:35
I like the chance of Get on the Yager in this - and at 16/1 this morning, he was simply too big a price.
His defeats of Ramses de Teille and Wakanda, 2 years ago - both read very well as prices of form and it’s not surprising that on the back of those wins, he was rated 140.
Things didn’t go so well for him last season, when he only ran 3 times - however, on the last of those runs, he finished third in the Midlands Grand national.
He didn’t quite stay the extreme 4m2f trip that day - so dropping back by 5 furlongs today, should be ideal for him.
Following a quiet seasonal debut run at Cheltenham he’s now rated 130 - and he can do damage off that mark.
The fitting of cheek pieces and a tongue tie for the first time, suggest that connections mean business - as does Harry Skelton back in the saddle (he was ridden by a conditional, last time).
I really can’t seem him not running well (granted a bit of luck), so figure he is worth backing to win - but saving stakes on him placing.
Plenty of his opponents can be given a chance - but non have outstanding credentials.
Classic Ben won over todays course in February - and looks to have been targeted at todays race. Assuming he stays the trip, he could be the biggest danger.
Whilst Shanroe Santos was an eye catcher at Fontwell last time - and he’s another who should definitely be in the mix.
Aintree
1:00
I’m quite keen on Mount Mews in this.
Originally trained by Malcom Jefferson - and then switched to his daughter Ruth - he was a very decent novice hurdler, who was thought capable of going places.
He actually finished second in a novice grade 1 event at the Grand National meeting, 3 seasons ago.
On the back of that run, he was rated 145 - and there was half a thought that he might develop into a Champion hurdle horse.
That didn’t happen - and he was also disappointing when switched to fences.
As a consequence, he was returned to hurdles - and transferred to Donald McCain.
He’s only run 4 times for McCain - and whilst he is yet to win, he ran with real promise on his seasonal return at Wetherby last month.
He was outspeeded from the last, by Sakhees City, that day - but lost little in defeat.
Apparently he is a tough horse to get fit - so I would expect him to come on for the run.
If he has, then off a mark of 136 today, he looks well handicapped.
The fitting of cheek pieces suggests intent - and Trevor Hemmings horses always need to be respected at Aintree.
In short, he has a lot going for him and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close.
1:30
I did intend to get involved with this race - but I’ve ultimately decide that it is just too tricky…
Part of my issue is that I can’t decide which horse I fancy most !
Yesterday, I was very keen on Vieux Lion Rouge - but he needs soft ground and I’m not sure there has been enough rain for him.
Even if the ground isn’t quite soft enough, I would still expect him to run very well - but I’m not going to tip a horse EW at 10/1 in a race like this.
The next one on my list, is Walk in the Mill.
I tipped him when he won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and he has every chance of following up today, off a mark just 4lb higher.
He’s also not as dependant on soft ground - and is a year younger than Vieux Lion Rouge…
Vintage Clouds is the third one on my short (ish) list - even though he fell at the first in this years Grand National !
Based on his run at last seasons Cheltenham festival, he is handicapped to go very close…
If I felt the race was between the 3 of them, I might have found a way to get involved - but there are at least half a dozen more who can be given a chance.
Defintily Red and Ballyoptic both have sufficient class to be able to defy their big weights; whilst Mulcahys hill and Kimberlite Candy have potential to be a fair bit better than their marks.
There are also the course specialists - such as One for Arthur and As de Mee.
Even then, there are a further 3 of 4 potentially dangerous looking outsiders to consider…
On balance I just felt it was too trappy to get involved.
If forced off the fence, I would go for Vintage Clouds - to completely turn Sue Smiths season on its head - but I’m not being forced, so I’ll just watch the race instead !
2:05
This is a slightly strange race to be showing on terrestrial TV, on a day when there is so much good racing.
It’s a listed race for juvenile fillies - so it important for future breeding and is quite valuable (which is why it’s on TV !).
There’s too much guesswork required, to consider a serious involvement - and whilst cases can be easily made for Midnights Gift and Garochecka, if I were to get involved, I would probably take a small chance on Irish raider Mianna.
It’s hard to construct a solid case for her - but she has more experience than most of her rivals (which should stand her in good stead) - and her latest hurdles run at Ballinrobe, has some merit.
Above all that however, I just find it interesting that a relatively small Irish trainer has brought her over for the race.
If you can get any of the 33/1 on offer, then she could be worth a small speculative play.
2:40
It will be a little strange to watch Native River and Might Bite competing in a 4 horse race - considering the last time they met was in the epic Gold cup of 2018.
Native River came out on top that day - and is expected to do the same today - but I’m not sure it’ll be that cut and dry.
For a start, Native River really needs soft ground to be seen at his best; I also always felt that Might Bite was the more talented horse…
Clearly he lost the plot a little last season - and he will need to be back close to his best if he is to win today.
However, apparently Nicky Henderson has turned him inside out over the summer- and I just feel that Henderson has something invested in the horse bouncing back to his best.
I managed to get a bit of 3/1 earlier today on the exchanges - and I definitely think Might Bite is worth a risk at that kind of price.
Ofcourse, there is also the possibility that Black Corton will trump them both - and as the only one with assured fitness, that’s not impossible.
However, he doesn’t have the basic class of the 2 market leaders - so if you do support him, it has to be in the belief that the Native River and Might Bite have declined (and by quite a bit).
3:15
I was quite keen on Didero Vallis when he made his seasonal debut at Ascot last month - and although he disappointed that day, I’m going to keep the faith and support him again today.
The fact is, he did exactly the same thing 12 months ago - disappointing on his seasonal debut before winning next time at Carlisle.
He followed that up by winning again at Haydock - and then ran his best race of the season when finishing fifth in the Plate at Cheltenham.
That was a strong race - and a reproduction of that form would see him go very close this afternoon.
It’s also worth noting that he’s still only 6 years old - so should have plenty of improvement in him.
Based on the Ascot run, then Didero Vallis shouldn’t be able to beat Flying Angel - and he is definitely a danger; along with Touch Kick; and course specialist, Ultragold.
That said, they occupy the top 3 places in the betting, and a better value option for a saver, is Federici…
He’s a couple of pounds out of the handicap - and hasn’t run yet this season.
On the flip side, he is potentially well handicapped (despite carrying 2lb more than his allotted weight) - and has excellent course form.
I have little doubt that Donald McCain will have him tuned to the minute for this - and as a consequence, he is worth a very small bet at decent odds.
Chepstow
1:55
I’m pretty keen on Acting Lass in this - and I’m really not surprised that he has been very well backed.
He was an eye catcher last time, on his seasonal debut at Ascot - but for the wrong reasons !
He was reluctant to race in the early stages - and only Sean Bowen's persistence, kept him in the race.
That said, a mile from home, I thought there was a chance he might win !
However, he then started to fade and ultimately, was well beaten.
I’m not surprised to see cheek pieces enlisted today - and if they have the desired effect, then he could bolt up in this !
He’s already won off a mark a pound higher than he races off today - and he followed that up by being sent off 7/2 fav for the 15 runner class 1 Racing Post chase (as was !).
He was well beaten that day - but connections put that down to the quick ground.
Quick ground is rarely an issue at Chepstow !
Simply, if the horse still retains that level of ability - and his focus can be kept on the job, then he should win.
Paddy Brennan is a very interesting jockey booking, in Sean Bowens absence - so far as I can tell this is the first time he has ridden for Harry Fry.
Harry Fry himself has his horses in excellent shape (as he usually does).
Most of his main rivals are making their seasonal debuts today - which is rarely ideal; whilst Captain Cattistock effectively runs off a mark 6lb higher than the one he was beaten from at Fontwell last time.
In short, they are all beatable - if Acting Lass gets his act together !
2:30
This is an open looking race - but I think it is worth taking a chance on Down the Highway.
I have to be honest, half of the appeal with him, is his connections.
He’s trained by Emma Lavelle - and ridden by Ben Jones.
They teamed up last week, with De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke trophy - and it looks to me as if Ben Jones has been sent to Chepstow today, specifically to ride Down the Highway.
Lavelle runs a couple of horses with chances at Sandown - but she knows that Jones’ 5lb claim is a gift and she has chosen to use that gift on Down the Highway !
And I think that’s fair enough…
The horse has some decent form as a novice hurdler last season - and whilst he never featured on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter last moth, that was a relatively hot contest.
Furthermore, Down the Highway is apparently a horse who takes a bit of getting fit - so I would expect him to leave that run behind, today.
Whether he will be good enough to win todays race, remains to be seen: but his run behind Lisnagar Oscar in January, shows he acts on the course - and it also suggests that his mark of 130, is fair.
Most of his rivals can be given some kind of chance.
Sojourn is favourite on the back of an impressive win at Market Rasen - and he could be tough to beat, even off a 10lb higher mark.
Whilst at a bigger price, Diamond Fort for the all conquering Fergal O'Brien, is quite likely to outrun his odds.
It really is an incredible days racing - with both quality and quantity !
The days mains meetings are at Sandown and Aintree - but there are excellent supporting cards at both Chepstow and Navan (and Wetherby isn’t too bad, either !)
It’s the kind of day, when I could have spent hours going through the races at each meeting - but alas, I don’t have time to do that.
Instead, I’ve focused on the races which are being shown on terrestrial TV - along with a few others, where I strongly fancied something.
Choosing what to tip today, really wasn’t easy.
I had a pretty long list of ‘possibles’, so lets hope I’m opted for the right ones.
Ofcourse, most of the others, are Mentions (or potential savers), so the keen amongst you, can cover all eventualities - if that’s how you like to play things.
Anyway, I’ve no time for rambling - there are a lot of races for me to preview.
Here is the rationale for todays tips - plus my thoughts on as many of the days other races that I could find time to cover !!
Sandown
1:50
If the ground were riding quick, I’d be very keen on Nubre Negra is this.
He’s looked a completely different horse this season, having been sent over fences.
His slick jumping is as good as I’ve seen from any novice this season - and the tough Sandown track should really play to his strengths,
However, yesterdays rain could cause him some issues.
He has a marked preference for decent ground - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is anywhere near as effective on rain softened ground.
Even more of an issue for him, is the fact that his 3 main rivals are all likely to relish conditions.
Summerville Boy has shown his best form on heavy ground, so it can’t be too soft for him; whilst neither Torpillo or Grand Sancy, should be inconvenienced by soft ground.
Summerville Boy and Torpillo have both won their only start over fences - with the latter looking the more accomplished jumper.
In receipt of a 4 year old allowance, he is probably the one to beat - though I can resist him at a price of 2/1.
It would be more tempting to take a chance on Grand Sancy.
He is making his chasing debut - but is the second highest rated over hurdles (behind Summerville boy), so if he can translate his form to the bigger obstacles, he should go close.
It’s a tough race to make your chasing debut in however, so on balance, I think I’ll just watch…
2:25
Although it grates a little, taking 4/1 in a big field Saturday handicap, I want to be with Malaya in this…
I tipped her last March, when she won the Imperial cup over todays course and distance.
That was a much stronger contest than todays - and she won well, despite making a complete mess of the second last hurdle.
She gets to run off a mark just 4lb higher today - and simply, if she is in the same form, she should win.
She’s already had a couple of runs this season: firstly over fences at Market Rasen - and then back over hurdles at Ascot.
The Market Rasen race didn’t go too well - as she apparently cut herself.
That’s probably why she was returned to hurdles at Ascot, where she never real featured - but apparently was a little short on work that day.
As we are aware, Paul Nichols likes to farm these big Saturday handicaps - and he will know that she is handicapped to win this one.
I’ll be amazed if she is not spot on today - and if she is, then she’s going to be hard to beat.
Protektorat looks the main danger, as an unexposed 4 year old; though the Nichols trained Ashutor is also a slight worry (particularly if he is well backed).
Smarty Wild and Song for Someone are 2 others for whom cases can be made - but in truth, this isn’t as strong a race as you would expect, for the prize money on offer.
3:00
I’m half tempted to get involved in this, simply because I think Defi du Seuil is too short, at 6/4…
I’m a big fan of the horse - and I won’t be overly surprised if he does win. However, this is a competitive race - and he really shouldn’t be so short in the betting.
In fact, based on his last run at Cheltenham, he could have his work cut out to beat Politologue.
He came out on top by just over a length that day - but the race was run to suit him (Politologue made the running) and he is 3lb worse off today.
The suggestion is that Politologue should get his revenge - and whether he does or not, it’s certainly hard to justify the discrepancy in their prices…
Similarly, it’s hard to justify Un de Sceux being a much bigger price that Defi, when he is rated 8lb superior !
He may be heading to his 12th birthday, but there is no reason to think that his powers are significantly diminished…
In simple terms, Defi is favourite because he has greater potential than his 2 main rivals…
If the ground was riding a bit quicker, then I’d actually be tempted to take a chance on Sceau Royal.
He’s previously shown himself effective at Sandown - and is a pure 2 miler.
However, he does have a preference for decent ground - and the lack of a run this season, may also count against him.
It’ll be a little surprising if any of the other 4 are good enough to win - though they are all smart performers in their own right.
If you asked me to name the most likely winner, I’d go for Defi du Seuil - but I’d wanted at least 2/1 - maybe even 5/2 - before I could consider supporting him.
3:35
I like the chance of Get on the Yager in this - and at 16/1 this morning, he was simply too big a price.
His defeats of Ramses de Teille and Wakanda, 2 years ago - both read very well as prices of form and it’s not surprising that on the back of those wins, he was rated 140.
Things didn’t go so well for him last season, when he only ran 3 times - however, on the last of those runs, he finished third in the Midlands Grand national.
He didn’t quite stay the extreme 4m2f trip that day - so dropping back by 5 furlongs today, should be ideal for him.
Following a quiet seasonal debut run at Cheltenham he’s now rated 130 - and he can do damage off that mark.
The fitting of cheek pieces and a tongue tie for the first time, suggest that connections mean business - as does Harry Skelton back in the saddle (he was ridden by a conditional, last time).
I really can’t seem him not running well (granted a bit of luck), so figure he is worth backing to win - but saving stakes on him placing.
Plenty of his opponents can be given a chance - but non have outstanding credentials.
Classic Ben won over todays course in February - and looks to have been targeted at todays race. Assuming he stays the trip, he could be the biggest danger.
Whilst Shanroe Santos was an eye catcher at Fontwell last time - and he’s another who should definitely be in the mix.
Aintree
1:00
I’m quite keen on Mount Mews in this.
Originally trained by Malcom Jefferson - and then switched to his daughter Ruth - he was a very decent novice hurdler, who was thought capable of going places.
He actually finished second in a novice grade 1 event at the Grand National meeting, 3 seasons ago.
On the back of that run, he was rated 145 - and there was half a thought that he might develop into a Champion hurdle horse.
That didn’t happen - and he was also disappointing when switched to fences.
As a consequence, he was returned to hurdles - and transferred to Donald McCain.
He’s only run 4 times for McCain - and whilst he is yet to win, he ran with real promise on his seasonal return at Wetherby last month.
He was outspeeded from the last, by Sakhees City, that day - but lost little in defeat.
Apparently he is a tough horse to get fit - so I would expect him to come on for the run.
If he has, then off a mark of 136 today, he looks well handicapped.
The fitting of cheek pieces suggests intent - and Trevor Hemmings horses always need to be respected at Aintree.
In short, he has a lot going for him and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close.
1:30
I did intend to get involved with this race - but I’ve ultimately decide that it is just too tricky…
Part of my issue is that I can’t decide which horse I fancy most !
Yesterday, I was very keen on Vieux Lion Rouge - but he needs soft ground and I’m not sure there has been enough rain for him.
Even if the ground isn’t quite soft enough, I would still expect him to run very well - but I’m not going to tip a horse EW at 10/1 in a race like this.
The next one on my list, is Walk in the Mill.
I tipped him when he won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and he has every chance of following up today, off a mark just 4lb higher.
He’s also not as dependant on soft ground - and is a year younger than Vieux Lion Rouge…
Vintage Clouds is the third one on my short (ish) list - even though he fell at the first in this years Grand National !
Based on his run at last seasons Cheltenham festival, he is handicapped to go very close…
If I felt the race was between the 3 of them, I might have found a way to get involved - but there are at least half a dozen more who can be given a chance.
Defintily Red and Ballyoptic both have sufficient class to be able to defy their big weights; whilst Mulcahys hill and Kimberlite Candy have potential to be a fair bit better than their marks.
There are also the course specialists - such as One for Arthur and As de Mee.
Even then, there are a further 3 of 4 potentially dangerous looking outsiders to consider…
On balance I just felt it was too trappy to get involved.
If forced off the fence, I would go for Vintage Clouds - to completely turn Sue Smiths season on its head - but I’m not being forced, so I’ll just watch the race instead !
2:05
This is a slightly strange race to be showing on terrestrial TV, on a day when there is so much good racing.
It’s a listed race for juvenile fillies - so it important for future breeding and is quite valuable (which is why it’s on TV !).
There’s too much guesswork required, to consider a serious involvement - and whilst cases can be easily made for Midnights Gift and Garochecka, if I were to get involved, I would probably take a small chance on Irish raider Mianna.
It’s hard to construct a solid case for her - but she has more experience than most of her rivals (which should stand her in good stead) - and her latest hurdles run at Ballinrobe, has some merit.
Above all that however, I just find it interesting that a relatively small Irish trainer has brought her over for the race.
If you can get any of the 33/1 on offer, then she could be worth a small speculative play.
2:40
It will be a little strange to watch Native River and Might Bite competing in a 4 horse race - considering the last time they met was in the epic Gold cup of 2018.
Native River came out on top that day - and is expected to do the same today - but I’m not sure it’ll be that cut and dry.
For a start, Native River really needs soft ground to be seen at his best; I also always felt that Might Bite was the more talented horse…
Clearly he lost the plot a little last season - and he will need to be back close to his best if he is to win today.
However, apparently Nicky Henderson has turned him inside out over the summer- and I just feel that Henderson has something invested in the horse bouncing back to his best.
I managed to get a bit of 3/1 earlier today on the exchanges - and I definitely think Might Bite is worth a risk at that kind of price.
Ofcourse, there is also the possibility that Black Corton will trump them both - and as the only one with assured fitness, that’s not impossible.
However, he doesn’t have the basic class of the 2 market leaders - so if you do support him, it has to be in the belief that the Native River and Might Bite have declined (and by quite a bit).
3:15
I was quite keen on Didero Vallis when he made his seasonal debut at Ascot last month - and although he disappointed that day, I’m going to keep the faith and support him again today.
The fact is, he did exactly the same thing 12 months ago - disappointing on his seasonal debut before winning next time at Carlisle.
He followed that up by winning again at Haydock - and then ran his best race of the season when finishing fifth in the Plate at Cheltenham.
That was a strong race - and a reproduction of that form would see him go very close this afternoon.
It’s also worth noting that he’s still only 6 years old - so should have plenty of improvement in him.
Based on the Ascot run, then Didero Vallis shouldn’t be able to beat Flying Angel - and he is definitely a danger; along with Touch Kick; and course specialist, Ultragold.
That said, they occupy the top 3 places in the betting, and a better value option for a saver, is Federici…
He’s a couple of pounds out of the handicap - and hasn’t run yet this season.
On the flip side, he is potentially well handicapped (despite carrying 2lb more than his allotted weight) - and has excellent course form.
I have little doubt that Donald McCain will have him tuned to the minute for this - and as a consequence, he is worth a very small bet at decent odds.
Chepstow
1:55
I’m pretty keen on Acting Lass in this - and I’m really not surprised that he has been very well backed.
He was an eye catcher last time, on his seasonal debut at Ascot - but for the wrong reasons !
He was reluctant to race in the early stages - and only Sean Bowen's persistence, kept him in the race.
That said, a mile from home, I thought there was a chance he might win !
However, he then started to fade and ultimately, was well beaten.
I’m not surprised to see cheek pieces enlisted today - and if they have the desired effect, then he could bolt up in this !
He’s already won off a mark a pound higher than he races off today - and he followed that up by being sent off 7/2 fav for the 15 runner class 1 Racing Post chase (as was !).
He was well beaten that day - but connections put that down to the quick ground.
Quick ground is rarely an issue at Chepstow !
Simply, if the horse still retains that level of ability - and his focus can be kept on the job, then he should win.
Paddy Brennan is a very interesting jockey booking, in Sean Bowens absence - so far as I can tell this is the first time he has ridden for Harry Fry.
Harry Fry himself has his horses in excellent shape (as he usually does).
Most of his main rivals are making their seasonal debuts today - which is rarely ideal; whilst Captain Cattistock effectively runs off a mark 6lb higher than the one he was beaten from at Fontwell last time.
In short, they are all beatable - if Acting Lass gets his act together !
2:30
This is an open looking race - but I think it is worth taking a chance on Down the Highway.
I have to be honest, half of the appeal with him, is his connections.
He’s trained by Emma Lavelle - and ridden by Ben Jones.
They teamed up last week, with De Rasher Counter in the Ladbroke trophy - and it looks to me as if Ben Jones has been sent to Chepstow today, specifically to ride Down the Highway.
Lavelle runs a couple of horses with chances at Sandown - but she knows that Jones’ 5lb claim is a gift and she has chosen to use that gift on Down the Highway !
And I think that’s fair enough…
The horse has some decent form as a novice hurdler last season - and whilst he never featured on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter last moth, that was a relatively hot contest.
Furthermore, Down the Highway is apparently a horse who takes a bit of getting fit - so I would expect him to leave that run behind, today.
Whether he will be good enough to win todays race, remains to be seen: but his run behind Lisnagar Oscar in January, shows he acts on the course - and it also suggests that his mark of 130, is fair.
Most of his rivals can be given some kind of chance.
Sojourn is favourite on the back of an impressive win at Market Rasen - and he could be tough to beat, even off a 10lb higher mark.
Whilst at a bigger price, Diamond Fort for the all conquering Fergal O'Brien, is quite likely to outrun his odds.
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Sand 2:25 Malaya 1pt win 4/1
Sand 3:35 Get on the Yager 0.75pt win/0.25pt place 16/1 (ie. 0.5pt win & 0.25pt EW)
Aint 1:00 Mount Mews 1pt win 13/2
Aint 3:15 Didero Vallis 0.75pt win 10/1
Aint 3:15 Federici 0.25pt win 14/1
Chep 1:55 Acting Lass 1pt win 5/1
Chep 2:30 Down the Highway 1pt win 7/1
Mentions
Sand 1:50 Grand Sancy (C )
Sand 3:00 Defi du Seul (P )
Aint 1:30 Vintage Clouds (O )
Aint 2:05 Mianna (S )
Aint 2:40 Might Bite (S )The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Sand 2:25 Malaya 1pt win 4/1
Sand 3:35 Get on the Yager 0.75pt win/0.25pt place 16/1 (ie. 0.5pt win & 0.25pt EW)
Aint 1:00 Mount Mews 1pt win 13/2
Aint 3:15 Didero Vallis 0.75pt win 10/1
Aint 3:15 Federici 0.25pt win 14/1
Chep 1:55 Acting Lass 1pt win 5/1
Chep 2:30 Down the Highway 1pt win 7/1
Mentions
Sand 1:50 Grand Sancy (C )
Sand 3:00 Defi du Seul (P )
Aint 1:30 Vintage Clouds (O )
Aint 2:05 Mianna (S )
Aint 2:40 Might Bite (S )The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Tuesday, 3 December 2019
Daily write-up - Dec 1st
The meeting scheduled for Carlisle, was abandoned early this
morning, due to a frozen track.
The meeting scheduled for Leicester, was abandoned on Friday, due to a waterlogged track.
Global warming has a lot to answer for !
As a consequence, there is just the one NH meeting taking place today - at Fairyhouse in Ireland.
On the plus side, it’s a tremendous card - with 3 Grade 1 events - and a couple of competitive handicaps.
I’ve no doubt it will be a fascinating watch - and there will be plenty of pointers for the season ahead - however, betting opportunities are thin on the ground.
The graded races all have relatively small fields - and can be quickly narrowed down to 2 or 3 runners: whilst the handicaps are complete minefields - which are best solved with the aid of a pin, or a crystal ball !
No tips today then…
Elsewhere, it’s day 1 of the Naps competition in the forum.
I mentioned it yesterday - and Francis has been busy drumming up interest, via a series of witty posts :)
Just to re-iterate: it’s free to enter - and there is a £100 first prize (plus consolation prizes if you end the month in profit).
It’s an ego-less environment - though there tends to be a bit of banter, when things hot up, near the end !
Chris, Peter and Neil are likely to use it to showcase the best of their system bets: whilst Paul tends to use it to demonstrate his uncanny ability to see obscure events in the future !
I use it to offer my best bets on midweek days - and the best Mention on tipping days.
The bottom line is, even if you don’t participate, there are likely to be some Naps posted, which are worth following.
Here’s a link to the sub- forum:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/December-Naps-Competition-f18113.html
Good luck to everyone who does get involved.
Here’s my thoughts on the days races at Fairyhouse…
Fairyhouse
12:30
Based on form, this looks a 2 horse race, between the Joseph O’Brien trained runners - Cerberus and A Wave of the Sea.
They met at Punchestown in October and A Wave of the Sea narrowly came out on top.
However, Cerberus was making his hurdling debut that day - and is 3lb better off at the weights, this afternoon.
The book says Cerberus should take his revenge - though I suspect the betting will provide more accurate advice !
Saint D’Oroux is third favourite - but she was trounced by A Wave of the Sea, at Down Royal, last month.
She was sent off favourite that day, so it was a disappointing run. She may well show it all wrong - but if she is to turn round a 24 length defeat, then she will need to !
If I was to get involved with the race, then I’d be more inclined to have a small EW play on Tremwedge.
He showed distinct promise on his hurdling debut at Punchestown a fortnight ago - and on a line through the winner of that race, should finish ahead of Dinard Rose.
A general price of 33/1, holds some appeal (EW)
1:00
This is the first of 3 cracking Grade 1 races on the card.
Envoi Allen is a short price to maintain his unbeaten record - and whilst he holds minimal appeal at odds of 4/6, I suspect he will win.
He won the Championship bumper at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and made a wining transition to hurdles, when taking a maiden event at Down Royal, a month ago.
Todays contest is likely to be much more of a test for him - but the horse seems to have everything: speed, stamina and a will to win.
It'll take a very good one to beat him - and whilst a number of his rivals look like they could be decent, I’ll be a little surprised if any of them are quite good enough…
His stablemate, Abracadabras, is second favourite for the race.
He too was a very useful bumper horse - and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
However, Envoi Allen beat him twice in bumpers - and I suspect it will be the same again today.
I actually think that Midnight Run may turn out to be the biggest danger to Envoi Allen.
Again, Envoi Allen holds a verdict over him, from a Navan bumper, a year ago - but Midnight Run has won his 2 subsequent races and looked very good on both occasions.
He has a near 5 length gap to close - and whilst he might not be quite up to doing that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get closer today.
Non of the other runners can be completely dismissed - but Envoi Allen sets such a high standard, it will be surprising if any of them are good enough to beat him.
1:30
The previous race was good - but this one is even better !
Samcro v Fakir D’Oudairies - and it’s not even just a match !
I’m a massive fan of Fakir D’oudairies - and all things being equal, would be pretty keen on his chance in this.
The only thing is, Gordon Elliot is back talking up Samcro.
He did the same in the horses novice season - and Samcro did look like the second coming - so it’s hard not to take notice…
Obviously, he was massively disappointing last season - but apparently he had lots of issues and they have now all been cleared up.
If he is back to his brilliant best, then Fakir will need to be some horse to beat him.
In fairness, I do think that Fakir is some horse - and I doubt there will be many better novice chasers this season - but I’m not prepared to support him at 11/8 against Samcro.
And that’s ignoring 2 other pretty serious rivals !
Ronald Pump has been a massive improver this year - and whilst I don’t think he will be quite good enough to beat the big 2, it’s impossible to say categorically.
Burrows Saint is making his seasonal debut, but he hacked up in the Irish National on his most recent start in Ireland.
Todays trip of 2m4f should be too short for him - but there can be little doubting his class.
Ultimately, it is likely to be a shoot out between Samcro and Fakir D’oudaireies.
I can’t see any appeal in backing either one of them to win the race - but whoever comes out on top, is likely to be a strong favourite for the JLT at the Cheltenham festival.
Samcro is currently 7/1 for that race - with Fakir 16/1.
Fakir is second favourite for the Arkle - but I think he is more likely to run in the longer race.
If there is a bet to be had today, it is Fakir at 16/1 for the JLT (with Ladbrokes, Coral & B365)
2:05
This long distance chase provides a break from the grade 1 action - and whilst it has a shape more suitable for betting, I couldn’t find anything in it that I wanted to tip.
4 of todays runners met last time out in the Cork National.
The Gatekeeper came out on top that day - but he’s not exactly consistent and I won’t be hugely surprised if he doesn’t confirm the form.
Glorious Galway finished second - and he ran a massive race.
He’s 4lb out of the handicap today, so strictly on the book, may struggle to reverse the form (or indeed, confirm it with Aherlow).
However, he’s only 7 - and relatively unexposed - so it wouldn’t surprise me if he did best of the trio.
The only thing about him, is that he should be held on form by Wrong Direction.
Both of them were competing in Hunter chases last year - and Wrong Direction looked to have his measure, when falling at the second last at Limerick, in December.
Wrong Direction is a couple of years older than Glorious Galway - but has only run twice under rules, so literally could be anything.
There’s too much guesswork required to support either one with confidence - but I do prefer their claims to those of the more exposed runners in the field.
Favourite, Ask Susan, is less exposed than most - and is trained by Willie Mullins.
She clearly has a chance - but she looks under-priced at 4/1.
Whilst Killer Miller is the other one of significant interest.
He’s had all sorts of injury problems and is very lightly raced for his age. However, he did threaten to be much better than his current mark of 127, and showed some promise on his return at Punchestown, a fortnight ago.
2:40
The final grade 1 event on the card, is just as fascinating as the 2 that precede it.
Again, of the 6 runners, only 3 can seriously be considered - but it is quite a trio…
The unbeaten Honeysuckle is favourite for the race.
She won a grade 1 mares race at last seasons Punchestown festival - and looked as good as ever, when making a winning reappearance at Fairyhouse last month.
The only issue with her, is that she’s not really beaten anything of substance.
Her official handicap mark of 150, is 12lb shy of Apples Jade - so off level weights today, she has it all to do (according to the book).
Only time will tell whether she is up to the task - assuming Apples Jade runs up to her rating…
That didn’t last time, when Apples Jade made her seasonal debut at Navan - and there are growing question marks over her.
At her peak, she would be odds on to take todays contest - but there is a possibility her best days are behind her.
Bacardys beat her out of sight at Navan - and whilst he was possibly flattered by the result, there is little doubt he is capable of top class form.
He too has been plagued by issues throughout his career - but he looked back to his best last time.
On official ratings, he has the same chance as Honeysuckle (allowing for the mares allowance), so with the question marks over Apples Jade, he looks the best bet in the race, at 7/2.
Non of the 3 other runners can be totally written off - but it will be a little surprising if the race isn’t won by one of the principals.
3:10
Races like this, are nearly impossible to solve.
15 runners: 5 of which are trained by Willie Mullins - and 5 owned by J P McManus (2 of whom, have ticks in both boxes !).
Trying to figure out what is going on with them all, is very difficult.
Janidil (Mullins and JP) is the race favourite. He won on his handicap debut last time - but has to race off a mark 10lb higher this afternoon.
He may be up to the job - or he may not. The market will likely advise.
Ciel de Neige is the other Mullins/JP horse.
He is making his seasonal debut, having finished third in last seasons Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He could literally be anything - and again, the market is likely to advise on expectations…
Willie trains the first 3 in the betting, with Buildmeupbuttercup splitting the JP pair.
On hurdles form, she has little chance - but she has been much improved on the flat this summer and if she translates that improvement to her hurdling, she could be hard to beat…
Outside of the market leaders, there are plenty of others for whom cases can be made.
I certainly won't be getting heavily involved with the race, but I might have a small play on La Sorelita (yet another runner for Willie !).
She caught my eye last time at Down Royal - and could be worth a tiny play at around 25/1.
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Tips
None
Mentions
Fair 12:30 Tremwedge (EW)
Fair 1:00 Midnight Run (w/o Envoi Allen)
Fair 1:30 Fakir D’oudairies (O )
Fair 2:05 Wrong Direction (S )
Fair 2:40 Bacardys (O )
Fair 3:10 La Sorelita (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
The meeting scheduled for Leicester, was abandoned on Friday, due to a waterlogged track.
Global warming has a lot to answer for !
As a consequence, there is just the one NH meeting taking place today - at Fairyhouse in Ireland.
On the plus side, it’s a tremendous card - with 3 Grade 1 events - and a couple of competitive handicaps.
I’ve no doubt it will be a fascinating watch - and there will be plenty of pointers for the season ahead - however, betting opportunities are thin on the ground.
The graded races all have relatively small fields - and can be quickly narrowed down to 2 or 3 runners: whilst the handicaps are complete minefields - which are best solved with the aid of a pin, or a crystal ball !
No tips today then…
Elsewhere, it’s day 1 of the Naps competition in the forum.
I mentioned it yesterday - and Francis has been busy drumming up interest, via a series of witty posts :)
Just to re-iterate: it’s free to enter - and there is a £100 first prize (plus consolation prizes if you end the month in profit).
It’s an ego-less environment - though there tends to be a bit of banter, when things hot up, near the end !
Chris, Peter and Neil are likely to use it to showcase the best of their system bets: whilst Paul tends to use it to demonstrate his uncanny ability to see obscure events in the future !
I use it to offer my best bets on midweek days - and the best Mention on tipping days.
The bottom line is, even if you don’t participate, there are likely to be some Naps posted, which are worth following.
Here’s a link to the sub- forum:
http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/December-Naps-Competition-f18113.html
Good luck to everyone who does get involved.
Here’s my thoughts on the days races at Fairyhouse…
Fairyhouse
12:30
Based on form, this looks a 2 horse race, between the Joseph O’Brien trained runners - Cerberus and A Wave of the Sea.
They met at Punchestown in October and A Wave of the Sea narrowly came out on top.
However, Cerberus was making his hurdling debut that day - and is 3lb better off at the weights, this afternoon.
The book says Cerberus should take his revenge - though I suspect the betting will provide more accurate advice !
Saint D’Oroux is third favourite - but she was trounced by A Wave of the Sea, at Down Royal, last month.
She was sent off favourite that day, so it was a disappointing run. She may well show it all wrong - but if she is to turn round a 24 length defeat, then she will need to !
If I was to get involved with the race, then I’d be more inclined to have a small EW play on Tremwedge.
He showed distinct promise on his hurdling debut at Punchestown a fortnight ago - and on a line through the winner of that race, should finish ahead of Dinard Rose.
A general price of 33/1, holds some appeal (EW)
1:00
This is the first of 3 cracking Grade 1 races on the card.
Envoi Allen is a short price to maintain his unbeaten record - and whilst he holds minimal appeal at odds of 4/6, I suspect he will win.
He won the Championship bumper at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and made a wining transition to hurdles, when taking a maiden event at Down Royal, a month ago.
Todays contest is likely to be much more of a test for him - but the horse seems to have everything: speed, stamina and a will to win.
It'll take a very good one to beat him - and whilst a number of his rivals look like they could be decent, I’ll be a little surprised if any of them are quite good enough…
His stablemate, Abracadabras, is second favourite for the race.
He too was a very useful bumper horse - and is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
However, Envoi Allen beat him twice in bumpers - and I suspect it will be the same again today.
I actually think that Midnight Run may turn out to be the biggest danger to Envoi Allen.
Again, Envoi Allen holds a verdict over him, from a Navan bumper, a year ago - but Midnight Run has won his 2 subsequent races and looked very good on both occasions.
He has a near 5 length gap to close - and whilst he might not be quite up to doing that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get closer today.
Non of the other runners can be completely dismissed - but Envoi Allen sets such a high standard, it will be surprising if any of them are good enough to beat him.
1:30
The previous race was good - but this one is even better !
Samcro v Fakir D’Oudairies - and it’s not even just a match !
I’m a massive fan of Fakir D’oudairies - and all things being equal, would be pretty keen on his chance in this.
The only thing is, Gordon Elliot is back talking up Samcro.
He did the same in the horses novice season - and Samcro did look like the second coming - so it’s hard not to take notice…
Obviously, he was massively disappointing last season - but apparently he had lots of issues and they have now all been cleared up.
If he is back to his brilliant best, then Fakir will need to be some horse to beat him.
In fairness, I do think that Fakir is some horse - and I doubt there will be many better novice chasers this season - but I’m not prepared to support him at 11/8 against Samcro.
And that’s ignoring 2 other pretty serious rivals !
Ronald Pump has been a massive improver this year - and whilst I don’t think he will be quite good enough to beat the big 2, it’s impossible to say categorically.
Burrows Saint is making his seasonal debut, but he hacked up in the Irish National on his most recent start in Ireland.
Todays trip of 2m4f should be too short for him - but there can be little doubting his class.
Ultimately, it is likely to be a shoot out between Samcro and Fakir D’oudaireies.
I can’t see any appeal in backing either one of them to win the race - but whoever comes out on top, is likely to be a strong favourite for the JLT at the Cheltenham festival.
Samcro is currently 7/1 for that race - with Fakir 16/1.
Fakir is second favourite for the Arkle - but I think he is more likely to run in the longer race.
If there is a bet to be had today, it is Fakir at 16/1 for the JLT (with Ladbrokes, Coral & B365)
2:05
This long distance chase provides a break from the grade 1 action - and whilst it has a shape more suitable for betting, I couldn’t find anything in it that I wanted to tip.
4 of todays runners met last time out in the Cork National.
The Gatekeeper came out on top that day - but he’s not exactly consistent and I won’t be hugely surprised if he doesn’t confirm the form.
Glorious Galway finished second - and he ran a massive race.
He’s 4lb out of the handicap today, so strictly on the book, may struggle to reverse the form (or indeed, confirm it with Aherlow).
However, he’s only 7 - and relatively unexposed - so it wouldn’t surprise me if he did best of the trio.
The only thing about him, is that he should be held on form by Wrong Direction.
Both of them were competing in Hunter chases last year - and Wrong Direction looked to have his measure, when falling at the second last at Limerick, in December.
Wrong Direction is a couple of years older than Glorious Galway - but has only run twice under rules, so literally could be anything.
There’s too much guesswork required to support either one with confidence - but I do prefer their claims to those of the more exposed runners in the field.
Favourite, Ask Susan, is less exposed than most - and is trained by Willie Mullins.
She clearly has a chance - but she looks under-priced at 4/1.
Whilst Killer Miller is the other one of significant interest.
He’s had all sorts of injury problems and is very lightly raced for his age. However, he did threaten to be much better than his current mark of 127, and showed some promise on his return at Punchestown, a fortnight ago.
2:40
The final grade 1 event on the card, is just as fascinating as the 2 that precede it.
Again, of the 6 runners, only 3 can seriously be considered - but it is quite a trio…
The unbeaten Honeysuckle is favourite for the race.
She won a grade 1 mares race at last seasons Punchestown festival - and looked as good as ever, when making a winning reappearance at Fairyhouse last month.
The only issue with her, is that she’s not really beaten anything of substance.
Her official handicap mark of 150, is 12lb shy of Apples Jade - so off level weights today, she has it all to do (according to the book).
Only time will tell whether she is up to the task - assuming Apples Jade runs up to her rating…
That didn’t last time, when Apples Jade made her seasonal debut at Navan - and there are growing question marks over her.
At her peak, she would be odds on to take todays contest - but there is a possibility her best days are behind her.
Bacardys beat her out of sight at Navan - and whilst he was possibly flattered by the result, there is little doubt he is capable of top class form.
He too has been plagued by issues throughout his career - but he looked back to his best last time.
On official ratings, he has the same chance as Honeysuckle (allowing for the mares allowance), so with the question marks over Apples Jade, he looks the best bet in the race, at 7/2.
Non of the 3 other runners can be totally written off - but it will be a little surprising if the race isn’t won by one of the principals.
3:10
Races like this, are nearly impossible to solve.
15 runners: 5 of which are trained by Willie Mullins - and 5 owned by J P McManus (2 of whom, have ticks in both boxes !).
Trying to figure out what is going on with them all, is very difficult.
Janidil (Mullins and JP) is the race favourite. He won on his handicap debut last time - but has to race off a mark 10lb higher this afternoon.
He may be up to the job - or he may not. The market will likely advise.
Ciel de Neige is the other Mullins/JP horse.
He is making his seasonal debut, having finished third in last seasons Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He could literally be anything - and again, the market is likely to advise on expectations…
Willie trains the first 3 in the betting, with Buildmeupbuttercup splitting the JP pair.
On hurdles form, she has little chance - but she has been much improved on the flat this summer and if she translates that improvement to her hurdling, she could be hard to beat…
Outside of the market leaders, there are plenty of others for whom cases can be made.
I certainly won't be getting heavily involved with the race, but I might have a small play on La Sorelita (yet another runner for Willie !).
She caught my eye last time at Down Royal - and could be worth a tiny play at around 25/1.
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Tips
None
Mentions
Fair 12:30 Tremwedge (EW)
Fair 1:00 Midnight Run (w/o Envoi Allen)
Fair 1:30 Fakir D’oudairies (O )
Fair 2:05 Wrong Direction (S )
Fair 2:40 Bacardys (O )
Fair 3:10 La Sorelita (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Saturday, 30 November 2019
Review of the day
Two seconds, a fall, an unseat - and a huge run from a rank
outsider, make it sound like todays tips were a bit unlucky.
Maybe they were - but in truth, I wasn’t massively surprised that it ended up a blank day.
Some days (like yesterday !), things feel right; other days (like today !), they don’t…
Ofcourse it’s always easier with hindsight - and days can sometimes surprise - but today didn’t !
In truth, it wasn’t helped by the uncertainty this morning over whether racing at Newcastle was going to take place (and where Lady Buttons would run) - and the fact it was nearly impossible to get a half decent price on anything I fancied.
Deciding on - and issuing tips - is hard enough at the best of times - so that kind of confusion and difficulty is never going to help…
Anyway, in terms of what did happen !
Westend Story and Sametegal were unlucky to bump into a horse with at least 10lb in hand of his mark.
Pre-race, it was hard to anticipate that was going to be the case - but during the race, Bennys King travelled with zest. First serving it up to and breaking, Westend Story - and then comfortably fending off Sametegal.
All a little frustrating - but these things happen…
The next tips to run were in the Ladbroke Trophy.
West Approach was backed into favouritism - but he decanted Robbie Power at the sixth fence.
It was too early to say for sure, but I would have been amazed if he’d been involved in the finish.
Walt ran a much better race (particularly considering his price) - and turning in, still looked to have every chance.
Somewhat ironically, I had been drawn to him because of his course form with De Rasher Counter.
At the revised weights he should have come out on top in their personal battle - but that’s not how it panned out !
As Walt started to weaken, De Rasher Counter powered on - leading home a trio of soft ground lovers !
Maybe the going wasn’t quite as quick as I thought (or maybe they watered overnight ;) )
The final tip on the day was Captain Chaos.
He was probably the one I fancied most - but he looked beaten leaving the back straight.
However, the pace had been strong - clearly too strong - and as the leaders began to falter, he started to stay on.
The only trouble was, he was staying on, in company with this seasons Scottish national winner, Takingrisks - and ultimately, that one stayed just a bit better !
Captain Chaos was beaten less than a length - which was a quite bizarre as he never really looked like winning !
As for the days Mentions:
Downtown Getaway was backed in to a scarcely believable 15/8 at the off (I did say he might go off close to 2/1 !).
However, he was a bit too free, made mistakes - and was pulled up after jumping the third last.
His stablemate, The Cashel King, stole the race from the front - and neither Mr Pumblechook nor Star of Lanka could get to him.
Scarlet Dragon ran a good race in the Gerry Fielden - but was no match for the 3 Nicky Henderson horses - there were no excuses there.
There were also no excuses for Magic Saint.
He remained at 3/1, right to the off - and after travelling like a dream throughout, just managed to get the better of Bun Doran in a driving finish.
Now why didn't that happen at Cheltenham, in March ?!
TVB
Maybe they were - but in truth, I wasn’t massively surprised that it ended up a blank day.
Some days (like yesterday !), things feel right; other days (like today !), they don’t…
Ofcourse it’s always easier with hindsight - and days can sometimes surprise - but today didn’t !
In truth, it wasn’t helped by the uncertainty this morning over whether racing at Newcastle was going to take place (and where Lady Buttons would run) - and the fact it was nearly impossible to get a half decent price on anything I fancied.
Deciding on - and issuing tips - is hard enough at the best of times - so that kind of confusion and difficulty is never going to help…
Anyway, in terms of what did happen !
Westend Story and Sametegal were unlucky to bump into a horse with at least 10lb in hand of his mark.
Pre-race, it was hard to anticipate that was going to be the case - but during the race, Bennys King travelled with zest. First serving it up to and breaking, Westend Story - and then comfortably fending off Sametegal.
All a little frustrating - but these things happen…
The next tips to run were in the Ladbroke Trophy.
West Approach was backed into favouritism - but he decanted Robbie Power at the sixth fence.
It was too early to say for sure, but I would have been amazed if he’d been involved in the finish.
Walt ran a much better race (particularly considering his price) - and turning in, still looked to have every chance.
Somewhat ironically, I had been drawn to him because of his course form with De Rasher Counter.
At the revised weights he should have come out on top in their personal battle - but that’s not how it panned out !
As Walt started to weaken, De Rasher Counter powered on - leading home a trio of soft ground lovers !
Maybe the going wasn’t quite as quick as I thought (or maybe they watered overnight ;) )
The final tip on the day was Captain Chaos.
He was probably the one I fancied most - but he looked beaten leaving the back straight.
However, the pace had been strong - clearly too strong - and as the leaders began to falter, he started to stay on.
The only trouble was, he was staying on, in company with this seasons Scottish national winner, Takingrisks - and ultimately, that one stayed just a bit better !
Captain Chaos was beaten less than a length - which was a quite bizarre as he never really looked like winning !
As for the days Mentions:
Downtown Getaway was backed in to a scarcely believable 15/8 at the off (I did say he might go off close to 2/1 !).
However, he was a bit too free, made mistakes - and was pulled up after jumping the third last.
His stablemate, The Cashel King, stole the race from the front - and neither Mr Pumblechook nor Star of Lanka could get to him.
Scarlet Dragon ran a good race in the Gerry Fielden - but was no match for the 3 Nicky Henderson horses - there were no excuses there.
There were also no excuses for Magic Saint.
He remained at 3/1, right to the off - and after travelling like a dream throughout, just managed to get the better of Bun Doran in a driving finish.
Now why didn't that happen at Cheltenham, in March ?!
TVB
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