It was nice to break the recent barren spell with a winner,
courtesy of Indefatigable - and nicer still, that it was the strongest fancy of
the day (and hence the biggest stake).
Ofcourse, what wasn’t so nice, was
the fact it was a relatively short price - even though it did drift a fair bit,
prior to the off…
If I am going to tip more short priced horses, then it
will be imperative that you all look to secure the best price you can - and
quite often that won’t be the price available when I issue
!
Indefatigable was a general 11/4 shot at 9:00 this morning (3/1) in a
few places - but was 6 on BF (5/1), a few mins before the off.
She had
shortened a little by the time the race got underway - but her SP of 7/2 (BSP
5.23) was still a fair bit bigger than the early price.
Anyway, in terms
of the race itself:
She travelled sweetly throughout - took up the running
turning in - and powered home !
I really did think she was different
class to her rivals - and that’s how it looked.
I’ve no idea how she ended up
the price she did - other than the fact it superficially appeared quite a
competitive race (so a few of her rivals were backed).
The tips today
were split into 2 groups: those I thought should win - and those I thought were
overpriced.
In addition to Indefatgiable, I thought Two Taffs should win
- and he nearly did.
He travelled through his race like a dream - but got
caught in traffic a couple of times - and then couldn’t quicken when he needed
to.
Ultimately, he finished an honourable second - beaten by a horse who
is an improver.
I can’t have any complaints: simply, you need to be pretty
accurate when you are betting at low odds.
The other ‘should win’ tip on
the day, was Mount Des Avaloirs.
Again, he travelled like the best horse
in the race - and was trading at odds on in-running, over a mile from
home.
However, in reality, he did a bit too much too soon - and when push
came to shove up the home straight, he couldn’t fend off a lightly weighted
rival.
That was always going to be a danger - but I felt he was worth a
risk…
The days other 2 tips were more ‘value’ based - but neither got
involved where it mattered…
Vive le Roi ran a fair race at Newbury - but
he wasn’t able to confirm the placings with any of those who he had finished in
front of, over the same course and distance, in November.
The reality is, his
form has plateaued whilst, they are still improving (One for the Team, in
particular !).
Whilst back at Warwick, Torpillo tried to take the first
fence in the back straight with him - and that ended any chance he might have
had.
In truth I doubt he would have beaten the first 2 home regardless (Rouge
Vif and Nube Negra) - and I suspect it is decent form…
In terms of the
Mentions:
Then Sceau Royal was a wining one - provided you discount Altior
(which was the suggestion).
There were plenty of ways to benefit from him
being the second best horse in the race - and whilst non of them really lent
themselves to official tipping, hopefully a few of your managed to profit from
the race (I did :) )
Whilst, it looks as if the fire has virtually gone out,
with Might Bite.
In ideal conditions, he should really have given Native
River a race - but he didn’t.
He managed to get round OK - but if that’s has
become the level of your ambition, then you do have to wonder about the
future…
Finally, there was no joy for the short-list in the first
‘BFHP’.
In truth, the race was a near lottery: with a standing start and
carnage at the final flight.
Mack the Man was brought down in the latter
incident - and he still had a chance at the time.
Whilst Ciel de Neige was
run out of things close home (though he was only a saver).
On balance, I was
glad that I chose that method to cover the race, rather than tip in it - because
there is no way I would have tipped the winner !
TVB.
Sunday, 16 February 2020
BFHP - Feb 8th
The two JP horses have been very well backed (both now 7/1) -
and at those prices, make limited appeal.
I’ll make Mack the Man the main play in the race, despite the ground worries.
He can be backed at 14/1 on the exchanges.
Thebannerkingrebel still holds appeal - but his price is quite tight.
The 3 outsiders are all worth a play - and are bigger prices on the exchanges.
7 units on Mack the Man at 10/1
5 units on Thebannerkingrebel at 9/1
2 units on Ecco at 20/1
2 units on Flegmatic at 40/1
2 units on Neff at 40/1
2 units on Ciel de Neige at 13/2 (saver)
Just to confirm, these are not official tips
TVB
As I mentioned earlier in the week, I’m going to look to tackle the occasional weekend 'Big Field Handicap Puzzle' (BFHP), in a slightly different way (using the same method that I’ve been using to cover mid-week races, in the forum).
The Betfair hurdle is such a race, tomorrow.
I won’t be tipping in it - but I am prepared to pull together a 'short-list', this evening.
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
Just to re-iterate, these won’t count as official tips.
Newbury 3:35
The drying ground is likely to be a big factor in tomorrows race.
There also tends to be a benefit, to racing up with pace in big field races (to avoid traffic issues).
The race has a history of being won by unexposed, progressive types - so that’s the sort I’ve majored on, in my short-list
Short-List
Mack the Man is extremely well handicapped: unexposed and progressive.
He’s also just snuck in to the weights.
On the flip side, apparently he has a preference for soft ground: and he tends to be held up in his races.
Neff has only run 4 times over hurdles, so is very hard to quantify. However, he has plenty of experience on the flat.
He represents the stable of Gary Moore - and he’s done well in the race, in recent years.
Flegmatic has got even less experience than Neff - but is trained by Dan Skelton, so will have been well prepared.
He has a couple of pieces of good form and looks potentially well handicapped.
The question is whether he can cope with the demands of the race...
Ceil de Neige has been sent over by Willie Mullins - and that makes him interesting.
He may not have won a hurdle race yet - but he ran third in the Fred Winter at last seasons Cheltenham festival, so should be able to cope with the big field.
Ecco is another unexposed novice - this time trained by Paul Nichols.
He finished sixth in last seasons Triumph hurdle - and has looked an improved horse this season.
Never Adapt is the second J P Mcmanus horse (Ciel de Neige is the other) - and she is ridden by Barry Geraghty (suggesting he is JPs main hope).
She is very headstrong - but won well at Kempton last time (suggesting she is becoming more amenable to restraint).
She was raised 10lb for that win - but that might not be enough.
The Bannerkingrebel is a tough novice (that sort tend to do well in the race).
He ran well at Haydock last time and is weighted to reverse form with the winner of that race (Stolen Silver).
I’ll email suggested bets for the race, after I issued tomorrows write-up (so likely to be after 11:30).
I’ll make Mack the Man the main play in the race, despite the ground worries.
He can be backed at 14/1 on the exchanges.
Thebannerkingrebel still holds appeal - but his price is quite tight.
The 3 outsiders are all worth a play - and are bigger prices on the exchanges.
7 units on Mack the Man at 10/1
5 units on Thebannerkingrebel at 9/1
2 units on Ecco at 20/1
2 units on Flegmatic at 40/1
2 units on Neff at 40/1
2 units on Ciel de Neige at 13/2 (saver)
Just to confirm, these are not official tips
TVB
As I mentioned earlier in the week, I’m going to look to tackle the occasional weekend 'Big Field Handicap Puzzle' (BFHP), in a slightly different way (using the same method that I’ve been using to cover mid-week races, in the forum).
The Betfair hurdle is such a race, tomorrow.
I won’t be tipping in it - but I am prepared to pull together a 'short-list', this evening.
After I’ve issued the write-up tomorrow, I will look at the market for the race and suggest how you might spread 20 'units' across the short-list.
Just to re-iterate, these won’t count as official tips.
Newbury 3:35
The drying ground is likely to be a big factor in tomorrows race.
There also tends to be a benefit, to racing up with pace in big field races (to avoid traffic issues).
The race has a history of being won by unexposed, progressive types - so that’s the sort I’ve majored on, in my short-list
Short-List
Mack the Man is extremely well handicapped: unexposed and progressive.
He’s also just snuck in to the weights.
On the flip side, apparently he has a preference for soft ground: and he tends to be held up in his races.
Neff has only run 4 times over hurdles, so is very hard to quantify. However, he has plenty of experience on the flat.
He represents the stable of Gary Moore - and he’s done well in the race, in recent years.
Flegmatic has got even less experience than Neff - but is trained by Dan Skelton, so will have been well prepared.
He has a couple of pieces of good form and looks potentially well handicapped.
The question is whether he can cope with the demands of the race...
Ceil de Neige has been sent over by Willie Mullins - and that makes him interesting.
He may not have won a hurdle race yet - but he ran third in the Fred Winter at last seasons Cheltenham festival, so should be able to cope with the big field.
Ecco is another unexposed novice - this time trained by Paul Nichols.
He finished sixth in last seasons Triumph hurdle - and has looked an improved horse this season.
Never Adapt is the second J P Mcmanus horse (Ciel de Neige is the other) - and she is ridden by Barry Geraghty (suggesting he is JPs main hope).
She is very headstrong - but won well at Kempton last time (suggesting she is becoming more amenable to restraint).
She was raised 10lb for that win - but that might not be enough.
The Bannerkingrebel is a tough novice (that sort tend to do well in the race).
He ran well at Haydock last time and is weighted to reverse form with the winner of that race (Stolen Silver).
I’ll email suggested bets for the race, after I issued tomorrows write-up (so likely to be after 11:30).
Daily write-up - Feb 8th
There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury, Warwick and Uttoxeter in the
UK - plus Naas in Ireland.
Having got used to relentless rain for most of the season, the recent dry spell has felt a bit odd.
Obviously, they overcame that last week at Leopardstown by watering ! - but neither Newbury or Warwick have taken such measures this weekend (so far as I’m aware !).
As a consequence, the ground at both courses will have the word ‘good’ in the description - which will suit a different set of horses…
A couple weeks ago I sent out an email concerning ‘tipping issues’.
At the time, I said that I would look to tip more horses that fancied - accepting that the margins in the prices wouldn’t always be there.
The races weren’t there either, last weekend - but this weekend is different,
There are suitable races at both Newbury and Warwick - so I’ve tipped the horses I fancy and worried less about the prices.
Hopefully non of you have chased them down (as that is likely to be a mistake !).
Last night I also sent out the first ‘BRHP’ short-list - to try and tackle the Betfair hurdle.
I will probably be identifying bets for the race, as you are reading this :)
So all in all, a busy day - with a slightly different twist !
There are some nice races though, so hopefully I can manage to find a winner or two (even if the prices aren’t great !).
Anyway, here’s the rationale behind the tips that I’ve issued - plus my thoughts on the days other big races (aside from the Betfair hurdle).
Newbury
1:50
I had intended to tip Acey Milan in this.
When I looked at the race yesterday, I felt he had a fair chance - and the early price of 8/1, was quite attractive.
However, I clearly wasn’t the only one who felt that way !
By tipping time this morning, his price had halved (4/1) - and it continues in free-fall…
He’s that kind of horse - lots of talent and probably well handicapped.
He therefore gets very well backed - but the fact he’s been a beaten favourite in 5 of his last 8 races, suggests the value call, is take him on at a short price…
In truth, this looks a pretty open race.
Intriguingly, the 4 horses who headed the market at first show (One for the Team, Dolphin Square, Anytime will do and Vive le Roi), ran against each other in a similar race over this course, back in November.
More than that, they managed to finish 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th, behind Champagne on Ice.
The weights aren’t massively different today - and it’s relatively easy to make a case for any of the 4 coming out on top, in the re-match.
That makes Vive le Roi interesting, from a ‘value’ perspective.
He actually finished runner up that race - so is the easiest one to make a case for (he just needs to repeat the form !).
However, he is the oldest of the quartet - and most exposed - which is why he’s proved the least attractive in the betting.
However, he has a few things in his favour: firstly, he may get an uncontested lead (unless Acey Milan takes him on); secondly, he will have no issue with the good ground; and thirdly, all his best form is at Newbury.
Ultimately, this just comes downs to chances and odds - and I think at 12/1, he is a quite a bit over-priced.
2:25
The presence of Altior, makes this a tough race to get involved with…
He’s one of the best chasers of recent years - and whilst he did lose his hitherto unbeaten run over obstacles last time, that doesn’t make him a poor horse.
In fact, his defeat at the hands of Cyrname was perfectly understandable - as the race took place in conditions that perfectly suited the winner.
That said, Altior didn’t look his best that day - and a few doubt were also creeping in last season…
Ultimately, these horses have only go so many miles in their legs - and his are getting quite well worn !
If he is back to his best today, he will win - and Nicky Henderson appear quite bullish.
That said, I’m never inclined to read much into trainers comments, in these kind of situations (I think they struggle to be objective).
If he weren’t in the race, then I would be very keen on Sceau Royal.
Not only is he the second best horse in the race on official ratings - he will be perfectly suited by quick ground and 2 miles.
At the weights, Kalashnikov has a similar chance - but he could find todays race happening a bit too quickly for him.
I did briefly consider tipping Sceau Royal EW - but if Altior is back to his best, he won’t beat him (so we then get 2/1 about him finishing second).
A better better is either to back Sceau Royal in the w/o Altior market (I’ve taken a bit of 7/2) - or to do a straight forecast Altior to beat Sceau Royal - along with a win bet on Sceau Royal.
However, non of these options really lend themselves to official tips, so officially speaking , it has to be a watching race.
3:00
Whilst the betting suggests that Native River is home and hosed in this, there is a theoretical argument that Might Bite is worth supporting, at a decent price.
The 2 of them famously fought out the finish to the 2018 Gold Cup, with Native River coming out on top, after a protracted struggle.
However, the soft ground that day, would have suited him more than it would Might Bite - whilst the latter is also 6lb better off today.
Certainly, if this race was taking place a month after that Gold Cup, I would be all over Might Bite (particular as Richard Johnson is unable to ride Native River today).
However, it’s now almost 2 years since the clash - and a lot of water has subsequently passed under the bridge.
In truth, both horses have probably declined - though that is more obvious for Might Bite.
He struggled in 3 races last season - and he’s not even managed to complete the course in 2 attempts, this campaign.
And that’s why he can be backed at 6/1.
That said, with the remaining runners rated at least stone inferior to the ‘big 2’, there is a temptation to take a small risk on him bouncing back.
The trouble is, when horses go into decline, it’s often hard to gauge how far they have fallen.
The official handicapper thinks that, Might Bite has dropped 9lb from his peak - but he is guessing…
The bottom line is, I feel it’s hard to tip him, with so many doubts hanging over him.
However, if Nicky Henderson has managed to rekindle the flame - then in under perfect conditions, he should certainly be able to give Native River a good race.
3:35
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
4:10
Despite the fact he carries top weight and is up against some dangerous looking rivals, I want to side with Mount des Avaloirs in this.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut behind Champ, at this course back in November.
That was a really strong race - and despite having his first run over fences Mount des Avaloirs showed real promise.
He was never in a position to win - but stayed on strongly, to finish fourth - beaten just 7 lengths.
His next race was a match at Ascot. But he was unsuited by the heavy ground - and was well beaten by Angels Breath.
I’m not reading much into that - and I think we will get to see what he is capable of, this afternoon.
The fact that he was sent off fav for the big handicap hurdle at Ascot, last December: and then at just 7/1 for last seasons Betfair hurdle, gives an indication of the regard in which he is held.
He didn’t feature in the finish of either of those races - but 3 miles over fences is going to suit him much better.
I’m sure he will eventually be rated a fair bit higher than his current mark of 142 - the only question is whether he can give weight today, to some very promising rivals…
Certainly, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the chances of Highest Sun or Present Value; though the former might be feeling the effects of a few hard races; whilst the latter might find the ground riding a touch too quick.
The other one I fear, is Post War.
He made his comeback a very long absence, at this track in December - and ran with a fair amount of promise.
There is always the danger that the race will have set him back, rather than brought him on - but if he has improved, then Mount Des Avaloirs could have his work cut out conceding him 19lb.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth making an official saver.
Warwick
2:05
Nube Negra is clearly the one to beat in this.
He was pretty limited as a hurdler - but has looked a completely different beast, since being sent over fences.
He was an impressive winner over today course, on his chasing debut in October: and followed that up with an equally comprehensive romp, at Fakenham later that month.
The feature both times, was his fast accurate jumping - and that was again on evidence, on his most recent start.
That was in the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown - and whilst he couldn’t quite get to Esprit du Large that day, he still ran a mighty race to finish second…
Some way back in fourth place that day, was Torpillo.
Like Nubre Negra, he had been might impressive on his previous chase start, when comfortably beating Mister Fisher.
Subsequent events have shown that to be a very strong piece of form - although as with Nubre Negra, it was more the manner of the win, rather than the substance which impressed.
So much so, that Torpillo was sent off a 13/8 fav for the Henry VIII chase - but he disappointed badly.
Having led early, he was beaten as soon as he was challenged - and eventually trailed in over 20 lengths behind the winner.
That wasn’t his form.
I’m hoping that he was just feeling the effects of his 2 previous hard races - and will bounce back today.
In truth, even if he does, he will have his work cut out to contain Nubre Negra, who has clearly been targeted at this race.
However, this game is about odds and probabilities - and if the Henry VIII hadn’t been run, then the market would be struggling to pick between the pair.
At 5/4 and 7/1, there really can only be one bet in the race.
Non of the other 4 can be completely dismissed - but I do think the race will be won by either Nubre Negra or Torpillo.
Fingers crossed it’s the latter !
2:40
I’m really keen on Indefatigable in this - and whilst she is favourite, I can’t really understand why her price isn’t shorter…
Granted, she is only a few pounds superior to a couple of her rivals on official ratings - but she is rated the best horse in the race - and todays test should be perfect for her.
I honestly didn’t think I would be able to tip her - and I spent a fair bit of time thinking about what price I would consider acceptable.
I wouldn’t ever want to take less than 2/1, because of the random luck element - but I would still have been tempted at that price.
Needless to say, at 11/4 (or better !) stakes had to be adjusted, slightly…
In terms of the case for her, then she is just a very solid, likeable mare - who’s second and third runs this season, represent much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She ran Lady Buttons to less than 2 lengths, back in November; and then followed that up by finishing second to Dame de Compagnie in a very hot handicap at Cheltenhams December meeting.
She’s only run once since then, when disappointing at Sandown, early last month.
However that race was run on very soft ground, which she didn’t appear to handle.
Back on a sounder surface, she is very much the one to beat.
In terms of her rivals, then nothing particularly jumps out.
Legends Gold is the obvious one, as she is the next highest rated. However, I do wonder if her rating flatters her a little (she won well last time, but Ben Jones was riding her, so that was a ‘free’ 5lb !).
Cap Soleil and Ch’ti Diamond are both hard to assess - so could take a step forward.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved with them.
There is little guesswork involved with Indefatigable - just whether she is over her Sandown exertions.
If she is, I expect her to win.
3:15
Two Taffs is another one I expect to win (it’s like waiting for a bus !).
In fairness, he faces stiffer competition that Indefatigable - but I’ll be a little disappointed if he can’t get the better of them.
He was a very useful novice chaser, 3 seasons back - when he ran third at the Cheltenham festival, before winning a decent race at Ayr's Scottish national meeting.
The expectation was that he would go on from that - however, he only ran once - the following October - prior to his run over hurdles, at Wetherby, this November.
Clearly there have been issues with him - but his Wetherby run suggested he retained all of his old ability.
That was borne out later in the month, when he travelled with real purpose in the Ladbroke trophy - but didn’t see out the 3m2f trip.
He drops back to 2m4f today - the distance over which he’s run his best races.
I suspect he has been targeted at this race by Dan Skelton (Warwick is his local) track - and whilst he does face some dangerous looking rivals, I think he’ll take a bit of beating.
Belami des Pictons is the obvious one to fear - in his first time cheek pieces.
However, he is becoming a little disappointing - and I can’t see the quickening ground, suiting him.
Course winner, King of Realms is another possibility; as is Clondaw Castle - but both have question marks over them.
Ultimately, I think Two Taffs is the most likely race winner - and whilst I don’t think there is much in his price, I did say I’d try to focus more on the race winners and less on value bets !
Having got used to relentless rain for most of the season, the recent dry spell has felt a bit odd.
Obviously, they overcame that last week at Leopardstown by watering ! - but neither Newbury or Warwick have taken such measures this weekend (so far as I’m aware !).
As a consequence, the ground at both courses will have the word ‘good’ in the description - which will suit a different set of horses…
A couple weeks ago I sent out an email concerning ‘tipping issues’.
At the time, I said that I would look to tip more horses that fancied - accepting that the margins in the prices wouldn’t always be there.
The races weren’t there either, last weekend - but this weekend is different,
There are suitable races at both Newbury and Warwick - so I’ve tipped the horses I fancy and worried less about the prices.
Hopefully non of you have chased them down (as that is likely to be a mistake !).
Last night I also sent out the first ‘BRHP’ short-list - to try and tackle the Betfair hurdle.
I will probably be identifying bets for the race, as you are reading this :)
So all in all, a busy day - with a slightly different twist !
There are some nice races though, so hopefully I can manage to find a winner or two (even if the prices aren’t great !).
Anyway, here’s the rationale behind the tips that I’ve issued - plus my thoughts on the days other big races (aside from the Betfair hurdle).
Newbury
1:50
I had intended to tip Acey Milan in this.
When I looked at the race yesterday, I felt he had a fair chance - and the early price of 8/1, was quite attractive.
However, I clearly wasn’t the only one who felt that way !
By tipping time this morning, his price had halved (4/1) - and it continues in free-fall…
He’s that kind of horse - lots of talent and probably well handicapped.
He therefore gets very well backed - but the fact he’s been a beaten favourite in 5 of his last 8 races, suggests the value call, is take him on at a short price…
In truth, this looks a pretty open race.
Intriguingly, the 4 horses who headed the market at first show (One for the Team, Dolphin Square, Anytime will do and Vive le Roi), ran against each other in a similar race over this course, back in November.
More than that, they managed to finish 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th, behind Champagne on Ice.
The weights aren’t massively different today - and it’s relatively easy to make a case for any of the 4 coming out on top, in the re-match.
That makes Vive le Roi interesting, from a ‘value’ perspective.
He actually finished runner up that race - so is the easiest one to make a case for (he just needs to repeat the form !).
However, he is the oldest of the quartet - and most exposed - which is why he’s proved the least attractive in the betting.
However, he has a few things in his favour: firstly, he may get an uncontested lead (unless Acey Milan takes him on); secondly, he will have no issue with the good ground; and thirdly, all his best form is at Newbury.
Ultimately, this just comes downs to chances and odds - and I think at 12/1, he is a quite a bit over-priced.
2:25
The presence of Altior, makes this a tough race to get involved with…
He’s one of the best chasers of recent years - and whilst he did lose his hitherto unbeaten run over obstacles last time, that doesn’t make him a poor horse.
In fact, his defeat at the hands of Cyrname was perfectly understandable - as the race took place in conditions that perfectly suited the winner.
That said, Altior didn’t look his best that day - and a few doubt were also creeping in last season…
Ultimately, these horses have only go so many miles in their legs - and his are getting quite well worn !
If he is back to his best today, he will win - and Nicky Henderson appear quite bullish.
That said, I’m never inclined to read much into trainers comments, in these kind of situations (I think they struggle to be objective).
If he weren’t in the race, then I would be very keen on Sceau Royal.
Not only is he the second best horse in the race on official ratings - he will be perfectly suited by quick ground and 2 miles.
At the weights, Kalashnikov has a similar chance - but he could find todays race happening a bit too quickly for him.
I did briefly consider tipping Sceau Royal EW - but if Altior is back to his best, he won’t beat him (so we then get 2/1 about him finishing second).
A better better is either to back Sceau Royal in the w/o Altior market (I’ve taken a bit of 7/2) - or to do a straight forecast Altior to beat Sceau Royal - along with a win bet on Sceau Royal.
However, non of these options really lend themselves to official tips, so officially speaking , it has to be a watching race.
3:00
Whilst the betting suggests that Native River is home and hosed in this, there is a theoretical argument that Might Bite is worth supporting, at a decent price.
The 2 of them famously fought out the finish to the 2018 Gold Cup, with Native River coming out on top, after a protracted struggle.
However, the soft ground that day, would have suited him more than it would Might Bite - whilst the latter is also 6lb better off today.
Certainly, if this race was taking place a month after that Gold Cup, I would be all over Might Bite (particular as Richard Johnson is unable to ride Native River today).
However, it’s now almost 2 years since the clash - and a lot of water has subsequently passed under the bridge.
In truth, both horses have probably declined - though that is more obvious for Might Bite.
He struggled in 3 races last season - and he’s not even managed to complete the course in 2 attempts, this campaign.
And that’s why he can be backed at 6/1.
That said, with the remaining runners rated at least stone inferior to the ‘big 2’, there is a temptation to take a small risk on him bouncing back.
The trouble is, when horses go into decline, it’s often hard to gauge how far they have fallen.
The official handicapper thinks that, Might Bite has dropped 9lb from his peak - but he is guessing…
The bottom line is, I feel it’s hard to tip him, with so many doubts hanging over him.
However, if Nicky Henderson has managed to rekindle the flame - then in under perfect conditions, he should certainly be able to give Native River a good race.
3:35
This is a ‘BFHP race’: I sent out the ‘short list’ last night - and will suggest bets for it shortly…
4:10
Despite the fact he carries top weight and is up against some dangerous looking rivals, I want to side with Mount des Avaloirs in this.
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut behind Champ, at this course back in November.
That was a really strong race - and despite having his first run over fences Mount des Avaloirs showed real promise.
He was never in a position to win - but stayed on strongly, to finish fourth - beaten just 7 lengths.
His next race was a match at Ascot. But he was unsuited by the heavy ground - and was well beaten by Angels Breath.
I’m not reading much into that - and I think we will get to see what he is capable of, this afternoon.
The fact that he was sent off fav for the big handicap hurdle at Ascot, last December: and then at just 7/1 for last seasons Betfair hurdle, gives an indication of the regard in which he is held.
He didn’t feature in the finish of either of those races - but 3 miles over fences is going to suit him much better.
I’m sure he will eventually be rated a fair bit higher than his current mark of 142 - the only question is whether he can give weight today, to some very promising rivals…
Certainly, I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss the chances of Highest Sun or Present Value; though the former might be feeling the effects of a few hard races; whilst the latter might find the ground riding a touch too quick.
The other one I fear, is Post War.
He made his comeback a very long absence, at this track in December - and ran with a fair amount of promise.
There is always the danger that the race will have set him back, rather than brought him on - but if he has improved, then Mount Des Avaloirs could have his work cut out conceding him 19lb.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth making an official saver.
Warwick
2:05
Nube Negra is clearly the one to beat in this.
He was pretty limited as a hurdler - but has looked a completely different beast, since being sent over fences.
He was an impressive winner over today course, on his chasing debut in October: and followed that up with an equally comprehensive romp, at Fakenham later that month.
The feature both times, was his fast accurate jumping - and that was again on evidence, on his most recent start.
That was in the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown - and whilst he couldn’t quite get to Esprit du Large that day, he still ran a mighty race to finish second…
Some way back in fourth place that day, was Torpillo.
Like Nubre Negra, he had been might impressive on his previous chase start, when comfortably beating Mister Fisher.
Subsequent events have shown that to be a very strong piece of form - although as with Nubre Negra, it was more the manner of the win, rather than the substance which impressed.
So much so, that Torpillo was sent off a 13/8 fav for the Henry VIII chase - but he disappointed badly.
Having led early, he was beaten as soon as he was challenged - and eventually trailed in over 20 lengths behind the winner.
That wasn’t his form.
I’m hoping that he was just feeling the effects of his 2 previous hard races - and will bounce back today.
In truth, even if he does, he will have his work cut out to contain Nubre Negra, who has clearly been targeted at this race.
However, this game is about odds and probabilities - and if the Henry VIII hadn’t been run, then the market would be struggling to pick between the pair.
At 5/4 and 7/1, there really can only be one bet in the race.
Non of the other 4 can be completely dismissed - but I do think the race will be won by either Nubre Negra or Torpillo.
Fingers crossed it’s the latter !
2:40
I’m really keen on Indefatigable in this - and whilst she is favourite, I can’t really understand why her price isn’t shorter…
Granted, she is only a few pounds superior to a couple of her rivals on official ratings - but she is rated the best horse in the race - and todays test should be perfect for her.
I honestly didn’t think I would be able to tip her - and I spent a fair bit of time thinking about what price I would consider acceptable.
I wouldn’t ever want to take less than 2/1, because of the random luck element - but I would still have been tempted at that price.
Needless to say, at 11/4 (or better !) stakes had to be adjusted, slightly…
In terms of the case for her, then she is just a very solid, likeable mare - who’s second and third runs this season, represent much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She ran Lady Buttons to less than 2 lengths, back in November; and then followed that up by finishing second to Dame de Compagnie in a very hot handicap at Cheltenhams December meeting.
She’s only run once since then, when disappointing at Sandown, early last month.
However that race was run on very soft ground, which she didn’t appear to handle.
Back on a sounder surface, she is very much the one to beat.
In terms of her rivals, then nothing particularly jumps out.
Legends Gold is the obvious one, as she is the next highest rated. However, I do wonder if her rating flatters her a little (she won well last time, but Ben Jones was riding her, so that was a ‘free’ 5lb !).
Cap Soleil and Ch’ti Diamond are both hard to assess - so could take a step forward.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved with them.
There is little guesswork involved with Indefatigable - just whether she is over her Sandown exertions.
If she is, I expect her to win.
3:15
Two Taffs is another one I expect to win (it’s like waiting for a bus !).
In fairness, he faces stiffer competition that Indefatigable - but I’ll be a little disappointed if he can’t get the better of them.
He was a very useful novice chaser, 3 seasons back - when he ran third at the Cheltenham festival, before winning a decent race at Ayr's Scottish national meeting.
The expectation was that he would go on from that - however, he only ran once - the following October - prior to his run over hurdles, at Wetherby, this November.
Clearly there have been issues with him - but his Wetherby run suggested he retained all of his old ability.
That was borne out later in the month, when he travelled with real purpose in the Ladbroke trophy - but didn’t see out the 3m2f trip.
He drops back to 2m4f today - the distance over which he’s run his best races.
I suspect he has been targeted at this race by Dan Skelton (Warwick is his local) track - and whilst he does face some dangerous looking rivals, I think he’ll take a bit of beating.
Belami des Pictons is the obvious one to fear - in his first time cheek pieces.
However, he is becoming a little disappointing - and I can’t see the quickening ground, suiting him.
Course winner, King of Realms is another possibility; as is Clondaw Castle - but both have question marks over them.
Ultimately, I think Two Taffs is the most likely race winner - and whilst I don’t think there is much in his price, I did say I’d try to focus more on the race winners and less on value bets !
Here’s hoping for a great
day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Warw 2:05 Torpillo 0.5pt win 7/1
Warw 2:40 Indefatigable 1.5pt win 11/4
Warw 3:15 Two Taffs 1pt win 3/1
Newb 1:50 Vive le Roi 0.5pt win 12/1
Mentions
Newb 2:25 Sceau Royal (w/o Altior)
Newb 3:00 Might Bite (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
TVB.
Tips
Warw 2:05 Torpillo 0.5pt win 7/1
Warw 2:40 Indefatigable 1.5pt win 11/4
Warw 3:15 Two Taffs 1pt win 3/1
Newb 1:50 Vive le Roi 0.5pt win 12/1
Newb 4:10 Mount des Avaloirs
0.75pt win 9/2
Newb 4:10 Post War 0.25pt win 9/1 (saver)
Newb 4:10 Post War 0.25pt win 9/1 (saver)
Mentions
Newb 2:25 Sceau Royal (w/o Altior)
Newb 3:00 Might Bite (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Introducing BFHPs
But, before I explain them...
A quick thank you, to everyone who responded to Sundays email.
In truth, it didn’t actually get the response I expected ! (possibly because I didn’t get the wording quite right).
I was simply expecting a few people to ask if they could leave - instead of which, I received an avalanche of support !
It was truly humbling - and made me realise what a great community I’ve managed to build :)
I think/hope I’ve replied to to everyone individually - but suffice to say, my commitment to make the service a success, remains totally undiminished (if anything, it has increased !).
Obviously, I can’t guarantee a flow of winning tips - not only do I need to spot opportunities, but luck always plays a part (and I have no control over that).
However, I will be doing my level best to get the things back on an even keel over the next few weeks…
Anyway, I’ve been giving some thought to how I might be able to handle things slightly differently (to help overcome some of the tipping issues).
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’ve been piloting a method in the forum, whereby I preview races the night before: produce a short-list of horses I’m interested in: and then suggest bets, late morning on the race day.
I like the approach because it is aligned with what I do myself, when I’m betting.
It also has benefits for readers, in that it provides my thoughts early (which can be added to any they have of their own): but only bets late (when bookmakers are more prepared to take bets - and there is greater liquidity on the exchanges).
However, the problem is that there aren’t many suitable races run during the midweek: it is a method best suited to Big Field Handicap Puzzles (BFHP).
Such races tend to be run at the weekend - so I’m going to look to start covering the occasional suitable race, as part of the Main service.
Generally speaking, these are races that I don’t tend to tip in (or at least, shouldn’t really tip in !).
That’s because they are usually minefields - and luck can play a very big part.
The tend to be good quality handicaps, with 16+ runners.
The idea is that I will aim to quarter the field (roughly) - and produce a short-list.
I will then advise bets, on most of the runners on the short list - staked to reflect my confidence/prices available.
Using this method, strike rate should be dramatically improved (at the expense of total winnings) - and the impact of luck, reduced.
There were a few BFHP races that took place last weekend: the hurdle race at Sandown on Saturday, where I fancied Ask Dillon; and the chase at Leopardstown on Sunday, where I tipped Portmore Lough, are 2 that spring readily to mind.
What I therefore intend to do in future, is send out an email for these race(s) the night before - containing a brief race preview and the short-list.
In the write-up, I will then just refer back to the ‘BFHP email’.
After the write-up has been issued, I will suggest a number of bets for the race (using prices available at approx 11:30).
I will aim to stake a nominal 20 units on each race - spread across 5 or 6 horses.
How/if you follow the recommendations, is up to you.
They won’t be official tips - and won’t be included in the TVB P&L.
For those who do want to follow them, my suggestion would be to stake 1pt in total, across the 20 units.
The method will be very well suited to the exchanges, as you will be able to spread the units around - and easily see total liability/win on each of the horses.
Better prices are also likely to be available on the exchanges, for many of the horses.
If you don't use the exchanges, then placing bets via conventional bookmakers will also work fine (it will just be a bit more time consuming).
One possible issue is that I may occasionally decide that I want to tip ‘officially’ in the race.
If that is the case, then I will handle the tip in the usual way (ie. issue at 9:00).
I will still suggest bets in the race (ie. allocate the 20 units) - therefore, in this scenario, you would need to decide which method you wanted to follow…
I’ll post this email in the forum, so if you have any questions or comments, please ask them there (so everyone can benefit).
TVB - constantly evolving and moving forward :)
A quick thank you, to everyone who responded to Sundays email.
In truth, it didn’t actually get the response I expected ! (possibly because I didn’t get the wording quite right).
I was simply expecting a few people to ask if they could leave - instead of which, I received an avalanche of support !
It was truly humbling - and made me realise what a great community I’ve managed to build :)
I think/hope I’ve replied to to everyone individually - but suffice to say, my commitment to make the service a success, remains totally undiminished (if anything, it has increased !).
Obviously, I can’t guarantee a flow of winning tips - not only do I need to spot opportunities, but luck always plays a part (and I have no control over that).
However, I will be doing my level best to get the things back on an even keel over the next few weeks…
Anyway, I’ve been giving some thought to how I might be able to handle things slightly differently (to help overcome some of the tipping issues).
As I’ve mentioned previously, I’ve been piloting a method in the forum, whereby I preview races the night before: produce a short-list of horses I’m interested in: and then suggest bets, late morning on the race day.
I like the approach because it is aligned with what I do myself, when I’m betting.
It also has benefits for readers, in that it provides my thoughts early (which can be added to any they have of their own): but only bets late (when bookmakers are more prepared to take bets - and there is greater liquidity on the exchanges).
However, the problem is that there aren’t many suitable races run during the midweek: it is a method best suited to Big Field Handicap Puzzles (BFHP).
Such races tend to be run at the weekend - so I’m going to look to start covering the occasional suitable race, as part of the Main service.
Generally speaking, these are races that I don’t tend to tip in (or at least, shouldn’t really tip in !).
That’s because they are usually minefields - and luck can play a very big part.
The tend to be good quality handicaps, with 16+ runners.
The idea is that I will aim to quarter the field (roughly) - and produce a short-list.
I will then advise bets, on most of the runners on the short list - staked to reflect my confidence/prices available.
Using this method, strike rate should be dramatically improved (at the expense of total winnings) - and the impact of luck, reduced.
There were a few BFHP races that took place last weekend: the hurdle race at Sandown on Saturday, where I fancied Ask Dillon; and the chase at Leopardstown on Sunday, where I tipped Portmore Lough, are 2 that spring readily to mind.
What I therefore intend to do in future, is send out an email for these race(s) the night before - containing a brief race preview and the short-list.
In the write-up, I will then just refer back to the ‘BFHP email’.
After the write-up has been issued, I will suggest a number of bets for the race (using prices available at approx 11:30).
I will aim to stake a nominal 20 units on each race - spread across 5 or 6 horses.
How/if you follow the recommendations, is up to you.
They won’t be official tips - and won’t be included in the TVB P&L.
For those who do want to follow them, my suggestion would be to stake 1pt in total, across the 20 units.
The method will be very well suited to the exchanges, as you will be able to spread the units around - and easily see total liability/win on each of the horses.
Better prices are also likely to be available on the exchanges, for many of the horses.
If you don't use the exchanges, then placing bets via conventional bookmakers will also work fine (it will just be a bit more time consuming).
One possible issue is that I may occasionally decide that I want to tip ‘officially’ in the race.
If that is the case, then I will handle the tip in the usual way (ie. issue at 9:00).
I will still suggest bets in the race (ie. allocate the 20 units) - therefore, in this scenario, you would need to decide which method you wanted to follow…
I’ll post this email in the forum, so if you have any questions or comments, please ask them there (so everyone can benefit).
TVB - constantly evolving and moving forward :)
Review of the day
It was another disappointing day for the tips - with neither
of the days 2 offerings even managing to finish their respective
races...
I knew that both were risky: Blue Sari on the back of a poor recent run; and Portmore Lough because of the nature of the race - but I was hopeful things might drop right for them today.
Alas, that wasn’t the case - and Blue Sari in particular, left a bit of a bad taste.
As is invariably the case, his early price shortened markedly - so I wasn’t surprised to see him drift back out to 7 (6/1) on BF, about 10 mins before the off.
What I was surprised to see, was the subsequent sustained drift…
In the 4 mins prior to the off, his price went from 7 to 17.
You rarely see that kind of drift on a relatively well fancied horse, in a grade 1 contest.
And, surprise, surprise, after travelling fine for the first mile and a half of the race - he cut out as soon as pressure was applied (in exactly the same way he had done in his previous race).
Someone knew that his underlying issue had not been resolved - and they profited from it…
There were no sinister going ons with Portmore Lough - in fact, he was the subject of relatively strong late support.
Part of the appeal with him was the booking of a 7lb claimer - but I think he cost the horse its chance of winning.
You can never win a nature of that nature at the start - but you can lose it - and he took up a dreadful position as the flag went up.
He was towards the back of the field jumping the first fence - and it’s very hard to make up ground in a race of that nature.
In fairness, he did manage to pick a few off - and still had half a chance when he unseated at the fourth last.
Whether he would have featured in the finish though, is anyones guess…
The race was won by Glamorgan Duke, who was one of the big priced horses I suggested might be worth a small play.
I don’t know how many of you took that advice - but a BSP of almost 100 was a nice reward for anyone who did !
In the opening race on the card, Jeremys Flame was another disappointment.
She had really strong form - but ran no kind of race.
Again, the consolation (for those who read the write-up !), was that the short-list of 6 contained 3 of the first 4 home - including the winner (who had a BSP of 23).
Aspire Tower was a final flight faller in the juvenile hurdle.
It’s hard to say whether he would have won, had he stayed on his feet - though regardless, he ran a long way below the level of his Christmas form.
Column of Fire managed third place in the long distance hurdle - but Cabaret Queen was never sighted; whilst You can call me Al took a horrible looking fall.
The result of the race suggested I was right to oppose the market leaders, at the prices: and whilst Faugheens victory in the novice chase, suggested I was wrong opposing the market principals in that particular contest - he only scrambled home by half a length (though it was still some effort !).
Finally, I would be pretty confident that the extensive watering, coupled with a few showers, cost Kemboy victory in the Irish Gold cup.
The ground was far softer than I expected (much softer than yesterday) - which suited Delta Work and Presenting Percy, a lot more than Kemboy.
In the circumstances, I felt that Kemboy ran really well - and I’ve little doubt he will reverse the form, once the spring ground arrives (assuming ofcourse, that it is not artificially ‘adjusted’ !).
TVB.
I knew that both were risky: Blue Sari on the back of a poor recent run; and Portmore Lough because of the nature of the race - but I was hopeful things might drop right for them today.
Alas, that wasn’t the case - and Blue Sari in particular, left a bit of a bad taste.
As is invariably the case, his early price shortened markedly - so I wasn’t surprised to see him drift back out to 7 (6/1) on BF, about 10 mins before the off.
What I was surprised to see, was the subsequent sustained drift…
In the 4 mins prior to the off, his price went from 7 to 17.
You rarely see that kind of drift on a relatively well fancied horse, in a grade 1 contest.
And, surprise, surprise, after travelling fine for the first mile and a half of the race - he cut out as soon as pressure was applied (in exactly the same way he had done in his previous race).
Someone knew that his underlying issue had not been resolved - and they profited from it…
There were no sinister going ons with Portmore Lough - in fact, he was the subject of relatively strong late support.
Part of the appeal with him was the booking of a 7lb claimer - but I think he cost the horse its chance of winning.
You can never win a nature of that nature at the start - but you can lose it - and he took up a dreadful position as the flag went up.
He was towards the back of the field jumping the first fence - and it’s very hard to make up ground in a race of that nature.
In fairness, he did manage to pick a few off - and still had half a chance when he unseated at the fourth last.
Whether he would have featured in the finish though, is anyones guess…
The race was won by Glamorgan Duke, who was one of the big priced horses I suggested might be worth a small play.
I don’t know how many of you took that advice - but a BSP of almost 100 was a nice reward for anyone who did !
In the opening race on the card, Jeremys Flame was another disappointment.
She had really strong form - but ran no kind of race.
Again, the consolation (for those who read the write-up !), was that the short-list of 6 contained 3 of the first 4 home - including the winner (who had a BSP of 23).
Aspire Tower was a final flight faller in the juvenile hurdle.
It’s hard to say whether he would have won, had he stayed on his feet - though regardless, he ran a long way below the level of his Christmas form.
Column of Fire managed third place in the long distance hurdle - but Cabaret Queen was never sighted; whilst You can call me Al took a horrible looking fall.
The result of the race suggested I was right to oppose the market leaders, at the prices: and whilst Faugheens victory in the novice chase, suggested I was wrong opposing the market principals in that particular contest - he only scrambled home by half a length (though it was still some effort !).
Finally, I would be pretty confident that the extensive watering, coupled with a few showers, cost Kemboy victory in the Irish Gold cup.
The ground was far softer than I expected (much softer than yesterday) - which suited Delta Work and Presenting Percy, a lot more than Kemboy.
In the circumstances, I felt that Kemboy ran really well - and I’ve little doubt he will reverse the form, once the spring ground arrives (assuming ofcourse, that it is not artificially ‘adjusted’ !).
TVB.
Daily write-up - Feb 2nd
There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Musselburgh and Taunton in the UK -
plus Leopardstown in Ireland.
It’s the second day of the Dublin Racing festival - and it will be interesting to see how the ground is riding.
The general consensus yesterday, was that it was drying quickly - and to combat that, there has been selective watering, both overnight and this morning.
There has also been 3mm of rain - so it’s anyones guess how all that will work out !
Away from Dublin, they race at Musselburgh and Taunton.
There are no big races at Taunton - but I did expect there to be some races of interest at Musselburgh.
However, the fields haven’t held up as well as I hoped - and that coupled with uncertainty over the ground (following rain yesterday afternoon), means I’m inclined to swerve the meeting.
As a consequence, all my attention has been focused on Leopardstown.
Unfortunately, it’s not the most punter friendly card: with the races split between the blindingly obvious (with short priced favourites) - and the near impossible (20+ runner handicaps).
I guess no one said it was easy !
I’ve ended up with just 2 tips on the day - but some also interesting Mentions (but you'll need to read the previews to discover all of them !).
Here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races…
Leopardstown
12:55
The first of 3 big field handicaps - this one arguably look a little easier than the other 2.
That’s because it is possible to construct a short-list - though, with a lot of unexposed horses in the line-up, confidence over those with a chance, isn’t quite as high as I’d like.
The ones of main interest, are: Jeremys Flame, Concertista, Black Tears, Drury, Spruced Up and Ena Baie.
Jeremys Flame is certainly the most appealing runner, as her last time out second in the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle is much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She doesn’t look badly handicapped on a mark of 136 - and of she can again run to that level, she is very much the one to beat.
The trouble is, there could be one lurking on a low weight, who could improve sufficiently to beat her.
Spruced Up and Ena Baie look the most likely candidates - and it’s not helped that both are owned by J P McManus !
If they are expected to show big improvement, then at least the market is likely to foretell it !
I would hope that Jeremys Flame would just about have the measure of the others on the short list - so then it becomes a question of whether 6/1 is ‘value’ in a 27 runner handicap !
Instinctively, I feel not - but that’s the price on offer…
My inclination would be to wait and try to get at least 8/1 at some point before the off.
If she doesn’t drift to 8/1, then 6/1 is probably acceptable - as by then, you should also have the knowledge that nothing is massively fancied against her…
1:25
Objectively, it’s nearly impossible to oppose Aspire Tower in this.
He’s unbeaten in his 2 runs over hurdles - and in the second of those, he comfortably beat Wolf Prince, A Wave at the Sea and Clemencia.
All 3 of those re-oppose this afternoon - but there is no obvious reason why they should reverse the form.
As a consequence, Cerberus could be Aspire Towers main danger - but he is closely linked, with A Wave at the Sea - form which suggests he won’t be troubling the favourite !
Never do Nothing and Oak Park are the only others who can really be considered - but they will need to show massive improvement on their runs in maiden company, if they are to pose a threat.
It’s not impossible that either could do so - and quick ground may help them - but either one would be very speculative.
In truth, if you want to get involved with this race (and not back an odds on shot !), then it will have to be a speculative call.
Oak Park is a 40/1 shot - and that might be worth a tiny risk; similarly, Clemencia is a 33/1 shot - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to beat Aspire Tower, he may be capable of improving sufficiently to reach a place.
1:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on Blue Sari in this…
He was a high class bumper horse last season: winning impressively on his debut at Gowran in January: and following up, with a narrow defeat at the hands of Envoi Allen in the Cheltenham champion bumper.
He switched his attention to hurdles at the start of this season - and was a comfortable winner on his debut at Punchestown in November.
On the back of that run, he was sent off at 6/4 for the grade 1 Future Champions Novice at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
However, he ran no race that day - and ended up a well beaten last of 4.
Obviously, that’s not good - but he was beaten so far (40 lengths), it’s fair to assume that something must have been wrong.
What I don’t know (and maybe nobody does !), is what that might have been.
As a consequence, there is a risk in backing him - though his 3 previous good runs and the fact he is trained by Willie Mullins do mitigate that…
Certainly, if he had not run over Christmas, he would be a much shorter price for todays race - possibly even favourite - so if we do ignore than run, then we have a good bet !
In fairness, he does face 3 promising rivals - so even if he is back to his best, victory will not be a formality !
Easy Work is the race favourite and he has been very impressive on his 2 hurdle outings; beating Mt Leinster on the first of them; and then hacking up at Limerick over Christmas.
It’s impossible to know how good he is - but he looks very useful.
He only beat Mt Leinster by a length and a half on their first meeting, but I would expect the form to be upheld.
Asterion Forlong is the other one of interest.
He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Naas last month - and could be anything.
2:30
This is the second massive field handicap on the card - and it looks a real minefield !
It’s honestly not a race which I would want to express a strong opinion on - though it’s very interesting that the Willie Mullins trained Cabaret Queen has managed to sneak in to the race.
She was originally the third reserve - but 3 runners have been withdrawn morning (as if by magic !).
The interesting thing with her, is that she gets to run off a mark 26lb lower than her chase mark.
More than that, she hacked up in the Leinster National back in October, off a mark 10lb higher than she runs from today.
In short, if she can replicate her chase form over hurdles, then she is highly likely to win.
Unsurprisingly, she’s not been missed in the betting - and whilst 9/2 doesn’t hold much appeal, I wouldn’t want to be laying her.
Amazingly though, she’s not even favourite for the race !
That honour goes to the Gordon Elliot trained Column of Fire.
He’s a 4/1 shot - which means that backing the pair of them, is around even money - in a 27 runner race !
Clearly, not everyone believes in the ‘random luck’ theory which I subscribe to !
In terms of longer priced runners, then there are plenty who could be given half chances.
You can Call me Al looks the most interesting of those.
He is stepping up markedly in trip for his handicap debut - and he will need to settle. However, he has plenty of scope for improvement - and can be backed at 20/1.
3:00
I was sorely tempted to get involved with this race and take on both Faugheen and Battleoverdoyen…
There can be little doubt, that Faugheen is too short in the betting.
He was a great Champion hurdler - and he’s done really well to win his 2 chases this season: but 7/4 about a 12 year old in a grade 1 novice chase, is just wrong…
I’ve less of an issue with Battleoverdoyen being that price.
He’s an improving young horse who can already boast a high level of form.
I’m not convinced that 2m5f is his best trip (I think he wants further) - but he may get away with it.
The issue is what to take them on with…
Willie Mullins provides the obvious alternatives, with Easy Game, Tornado Flyer and Castlebawn West.
I was impressed by Easy Game last time - but I suspect Tornado Flyer is the better horse.
At 8/1, he’s an option.
However, the 2 rank outsiders make far more appeal, from a ‘value’ perspective…
Myth Buster was less than 5 lengths behind Easy Game last time - and running on strongly. How he can be 80/1, when Easy Game is 5/1, is beyond me !
That said, Rachel Blackmore appears to have chosen to ride Dommage Pour Toi ahead of Myth Buster.
He finished a length behind Tornado Flyer - but well ahead of Easy Game, when the 3 of them ran over hurdles at Punchestown last May.
At 40/1, he is a great ‘value’ bet…
Whether he should be an official bet however, is a different matter.
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to be staking him heavily - but equally, I wouldn’t put anyone off having a few speculative pounds/euros/dollars on him…!
3:30
The big race of the meeting - and it’s hard to look beyond Kemboy.
He was a revelation last season: Hacking up in the Savilles Chase and the Betway Bowl - before getting the better of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Al Boom Photo, at Punchestown.
You don’t get many horses winning 3 grade 1 chases in a season - and there can be little doubt he’s from the very top draw.
He should also have ideal conditions this afternoon: as he has a preference for a flat track and decent surface.
Provided his jumping holds up, I would expect him to win.
Obviously, the issue is the price - as he’s a 6/4 shot.
Superficially, that seems short, as Delta Work beat him by over 3 lengths, at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, Kemboy was making his seasonal debut that day and raced a bit too freely. I expect he will have come on significantly for the run and will reverse the form this afternoon.
Delta Work is obviously a danger though: as too is Presenting Percy - though I do feel he needs more of a stamina test than he is likely to get this afternoon.
Chris’s Dream is possibly the most interesting runner, on the back of his impressive win in the Troytown.
However, there’s a world of difference between taking a handicap off a mark of 146 - and winning a very strong grade 1 contest.
I’ll be a little surprised if he manages anything better than a place.
Of the others, then I could Le Bagu au Roi running a big race.
She won on this card last year - and whilst she has taken some time to recover her form this season, she ran very well on her latest outing at Doncaster.
Her rating of 147 is 30lb less than Kemboys - and that suggests she has no chance (even with her 7lb allowance)
I don’t believe that - and whilst she might not be able to beat him, I suspect she can give him a bit of a race.
Certainly she makes some EW appeal - though for the winner, it has be Kemboy…
4:00
The final big field handicap of the day - and just the 24 runners.
Compared to the other 2, solving it should be easy :)
Unfortunately, that’s not actually true - in fact, pulling together a short list is probably a bit trickier than it is for the other 2 races (because few of the runners can be safely dismissed).
That said, there are 3 who interest me most: Dallas de Pictons; At the Acorn and Portmore Lough.
The first 2 named are probably the most interesting runners in the race.
Both are unexposed novices, who really could be anything.
There is a chance that either could take the race apart: but the betting is wise to that possibility.
More than that, both have got to show a lot of improvement - and their jumping will need to hold up in a much tougher race than they have previously contested…
Portmore Lough is a different beast.
He finished third on his most recent outing: in the Troytown at Navan in November.
That’s a similar race to todays, in that its a competitive big field handicap - and he had no issue with it.
He wasn’t good enough to win, but he was only beaten by Chris Dream and Fitzhenry.
The former is fourth favourite for todays grade 1 Irish Gold Cup; whilst the latter was subsequently pipped in the Paddy Power chase.
As a result of that run, Portmore Lough meets Fitzhenry on 7lb better terms today: he also has a 7lb claimer in the saddle, meaning that Fitzhenry is effectively a stone worse off.
More than that, I think Portmore Lough will be well suited by todays shorter trip - and if his first time tongue tie has the desired effect, he will almost certainly run a big race.
Ofcourse, a race like this can rarely be narrowed down to 3 - and there are plenty more for whom cases can be made.
Robin des Foret is another who will almost certainly run well - though his resolution in a finish has to be a worry.
At big prices, Mr Diablo and Glamorgan Duke are both of some interest, and could be worth small plays.
For the official tip however, I’m just going to side with Portmore Lough…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
TipsLeop 1:55 Blue Sari 1pt win 6/1
Leop 4:00 Portmore Lough 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Leop 12:55 Jeremys Flame (P )
Leop 3:00 Dommage Pour Toi (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
It’s the second day of the Dublin Racing festival - and it will be interesting to see how the ground is riding.
The general consensus yesterday, was that it was drying quickly - and to combat that, there has been selective watering, both overnight and this morning.
There has also been 3mm of rain - so it’s anyones guess how all that will work out !
Away from Dublin, they race at Musselburgh and Taunton.
There are no big races at Taunton - but I did expect there to be some races of interest at Musselburgh.
However, the fields haven’t held up as well as I hoped - and that coupled with uncertainty over the ground (following rain yesterday afternoon), means I’m inclined to swerve the meeting.
As a consequence, all my attention has been focused on Leopardstown.
Unfortunately, it’s not the most punter friendly card: with the races split between the blindingly obvious (with short priced favourites) - and the near impossible (20+ runner handicaps).
I guess no one said it was easy !
I’ve ended up with just 2 tips on the day - but some also interesting Mentions (but you'll need to read the previews to discover all of them !).
Here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races…
Leopardstown
12:55
The first of 3 big field handicaps - this one arguably look a little easier than the other 2.
That’s because it is possible to construct a short-list - though, with a lot of unexposed horses in the line-up, confidence over those with a chance, isn’t quite as high as I’d like.
The ones of main interest, are: Jeremys Flame, Concertista, Black Tears, Drury, Spruced Up and Ena Baie.
Jeremys Flame is certainly the most appealing runner, as her last time out second in the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle is much better form than any of her rivals can boast.
She doesn’t look badly handicapped on a mark of 136 - and of she can again run to that level, she is very much the one to beat.
The trouble is, there could be one lurking on a low weight, who could improve sufficiently to beat her.
Spruced Up and Ena Baie look the most likely candidates - and it’s not helped that both are owned by J P McManus !
If they are expected to show big improvement, then at least the market is likely to foretell it !
I would hope that Jeremys Flame would just about have the measure of the others on the short list - so then it becomes a question of whether 6/1 is ‘value’ in a 27 runner handicap !
Instinctively, I feel not - but that’s the price on offer…
My inclination would be to wait and try to get at least 8/1 at some point before the off.
If she doesn’t drift to 8/1, then 6/1 is probably acceptable - as by then, you should also have the knowledge that nothing is massively fancied against her…
1:25
Objectively, it’s nearly impossible to oppose Aspire Tower in this.
He’s unbeaten in his 2 runs over hurdles - and in the second of those, he comfortably beat Wolf Prince, A Wave at the Sea and Clemencia.
All 3 of those re-oppose this afternoon - but there is no obvious reason why they should reverse the form.
As a consequence, Cerberus could be Aspire Towers main danger - but he is closely linked, with A Wave at the Sea - form which suggests he won’t be troubling the favourite !
Never do Nothing and Oak Park are the only others who can really be considered - but they will need to show massive improvement on their runs in maiden company, if they are to pose a threat.
It’s not impossible that either could do so - and quick ground may help them - but either one would be very speculative.
In truth, if you want to get involved with this race (and not back an odds on shot !), then it will have to be a speculative call.
Oak Park is a 40/1 shot - and that might be worth a tiny risk; similarly, Clemencia is a 33/1 shot - and whilst he shouldn’t be able to beat Aspire Tower, he may be capable of improving sufficiently to reach a place.
1:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on Blue Sari in this…
He was a high class bumper horse last season: winning impressively on his debut at Gowran in January: and following up, with a narrow defeat at the hands of Envoi Allen in the Cheltenham champion bumper.
He switched his attention to hurdles at the start of this season - and was a comfortable winner on his debut at Punchestown in November.
On the back of that run, he was sent off at 6/4 for the grade 1 Future Champions Novice at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
However, he ran no race that day - and ended up a well beaten last of 4.
Obviously, that’s not good - but he was beaten so far (40 lengths), it’s fair to assume that something must have been wrong.
What I don’t know (and maybe nobody does !), is what that might have been.
As a consequence, there is a risk in backing him - though his 3 previous good runs and the fact he is trained by Willie Mullins do mitigate that…
Certainly, if he had not run over Christmas, he would be a much shorter price for todays race - possibly even favourite - so if we do ignore than run, then we have a good bet !
In fairness, he does face 3 promising rivals - so even if he is back to his best, victory will not be a formality !
Easy Work is the race favourite and he has been very impressive on his 2 hurdle outings; beating Mt Leinster on the first of them; and then hacking up at Limerick over Christmas.
It’s impossible to know how good he is - but he looks very useful.
He only beat Mt Leinster by a length and a half on their first meeting, but I would expect the form to be upheld.
Asterion Forlong is the other one of interest.
He was very impressive on his hurdling debut at Naas last month - and could be anything.
2:30
This is the second massive field handicap on the card - and it looks a real minefield !
It’s honestly not a race which I would want to express a strong opinion on - though it’s very interesting that the Willie Mullins trained Cabaret Queen has managed to sneak in to the race.
She was originally the third reserve - but 3 runners have been withdrawn morning (as if by magic !).
The interesting thing with her, is that she gets to run off a mark 26lb lower than her chase mark.
More than that, she hacked up in the Leinster National back in October, off a mark 10lb higher than she runs from today.
In short, if she can replicate her chase form over hurdles, then she is highly likely to win.
Unsurprisingly, she’s not been missed in the betting - and whilst 9/2 doesn’t hold much appeal, I wouldn’t want to be laying her.
Amazingly though, she’s not even favourite for the race !
That honour goes to the Gordon Elliot trained Column of Fire.
He’s a 4/1 shot - which means that backing the pair of them, is around even money - in a 27 runner race !
Clearly, not everyone believes in the ‘random luck’ theory which I subscribe to !
In terms of longer priced runners, then there are plenty who could be given half chances.
You can Call me Al looks the most interesting of those.
He is stepping up markedly in trip for his handicap debut - and he will need to settle. However, he has plenty of scope for improvement - and can be backed at 20/1.
3:00
I was sorely tempted to get involved with this race and take on both Faugheen and Battleoverdoyen…
There can be little doubt, that Faugheen is too short in the betting.
He was a great Champion hurdler - and he’s done really well to win his 2 chases this season: but 7/4 about a 12 year old in a grade 1 novice chase, is just wrong…
I’ve less of an issue with Battleoverdoyen being that price.
He’s an improving young horse who can already boast a high level of form.
I’m not convinced that 2m5f is his best trip (I think he wants further) - but he may get away with it.
The issue is what to take them on with…
Willie Mullins provides the obvious alternatives, with Easy Game, Tornado Flyer and Castlebawn West.
I was impressed by Easy Game last time - but I suspect Tornado Flyer is the better horse.
At 8/1, he’s an option.
However, the 2 rank outsiders make far more appeal, from a ‘value’ perspective…
Myth Buster was less than 5 lengths behind Easy Game last time - and running on strongly. How he can be 80/1, when Easy Game is 5/1, is beyond me !
That said, Rachel Blackmore appears to have chosen to ride Dommage Pour Toi ahead of Myth Buster.
He finished a length behind Tornado Flyer - but well ahead of Easy Game, when the 3 of them ran over hurdles at Punchestown last May.
At 40/1, he is a great ‘value’ bet…
Whether he should be an official bet however, is a different matter.
Certainly, I wouldn’t want to be staking him heavily - but equally, I wouldn’t put anyone off having a few speculative pounds/euros/dollars on him…!
3:30
The big race of the meeting - and it’s hard to look beyond Kemboy.
He was a revelation last season: Hacking up in the Savilles Chase and the Betway Bowl - before getting the better of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Al Boom Photo, at Punchestown.
You don’t get many horses winning 3 grade 1 chases in a season - and there can be little doubt he’s from the very top draw.
He should also have ideal conditions this afternoon: as he has a preference for a flat track and decent surface.
Provided his jumping holds up, I would expect him to win.
Obviously, the issue is the price - as he’s a 6/4 shot.
Superficially, that seems short, as Delta Work beat him by over 3 lengths, at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, Kemboy was making his seasonal debut that day and raced a bit too freely. I expect he will have come on significantly for the run and will reverse the form this afternoon.
Delta Work is obviously a danger though: as too is Presenting Percy - though I do feel he needs more of a stamina test than he is likely to get this afternoon.
Chris’s Dream is possibly the most interesting runner, on the back of his impressive win in the Troytown.
However, there’s a world of difference between taking a handicap off a mark of 146 - and winning a very strong grade 1 contest.
I’ll be a little surprised if he manages anything better than a place.
Of the others, then I could Le Bagu au Roi running a big race.
She won on this card last year - and whilst she has taken some time to recover her form this season, she ran very well on her latest outing at Doncaster.
Her rating of 147 is 30lb less than Kemboys - and that suggests she has no chance (even with her 7lb allowance)
I don’t believe that - and whilst she might not be able to beat him, I suspect she can give him a bit of a race.
Certainly she makes some EW appeal - though for the winner, it has be Kemboy…
4:00
The final big field handicap of the day - and just the 24 runners.
Compared to the other 2, solving it should be easy :)
Unfortunately, that’s not actually true - in fact, pulling together a short list is probably a bit trickier than it is for the other 2 races (because few of the runners can be safely dismissed).
That said, there are 3 who interest me most: Dallas de Pictons; At the Acorn and Portmore Lough.
The first 2 named are probably the most interesting runners in the race.
Both are unexposed novices, who really could be anything.
There is a chance that either could take the race apart: but the betting is wise to that possibility.
More than that, both have got to show a lot of improvement - and their jumping will need to hold up in a much tougher race than they have previously contested…
Portmore Lough is a different beast.
He finished third on his most recent outing: in the Troytown at Navan in November.
That’s a similar race to todays, in that its a competitive big field handicap - and he had no issue with it.
He wasn’t good enough to win, but he was only beaten by Chris Dream and Fitzhenry.
The former is fourth favourite for todays grade 1 Irish Gold Cup; whilst the latter was subsequently pipped in the Paddy Power chase.
As a result of that run, Portmore Lough meets Fitzhenry on 7lb better terms today: he also has a 7lb claimer in the saddle, meaning that Fitzhenry is effectively a stone worse off.
More than that, I think Portmore Lough will be well suited by todays shorter trip - and if his first time tongue tie has the desired effect, he will almost certainly run a big race.
Ofcourse, a race like this can rarely be narrowed down to 3 - and there are plenty more for whom cases can be made.
Robin des Foret is another who will almost certainly run well - though his resolution in a finish has to be a worry.
At big prices, Mr Diablo and Glamorgan Duke are both of some interest, and could be worth small plays.
For the official tip however, I’m just going to side with Portmore Lough…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
TipsLeop 1:55 Blue Sari 1pt win 6/1
Leop 4:00 Portmore Lough 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Leop 12:55 Jeremys Flame (P )
Leop 3:00 Dommage Pour Toi (S )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
The sheer volume - and the nature - of todays racing, meant
it was a slightly odd day.
Despite previewing 14 races, I was only able to find 4 tips - and that reduced to 3, when For There was declared a non runner.
In truth, there were quite a lot of late changes: with the ground at both Leopardstown and Mussleburgh, riding quicker than I expected - something which resulted in a few key non runners at the former track…
One of those was Fakir D’Oudaries.
He was one of the favourites in the race in which I tipped Melon - but he was a late defector due to the ground.
I’m not sure whether the ground was also an issue for Melon - but for whatever reason, he ran a lifeless race.
On form, he should have comfortably beaten Gallent John Joe - but whilst that one ran on into a credible third place, Melon was left struggling behind.
I guess they are not machines - but it was still a disappointing effort.
Le Rocher was the second tip to run - and he did much better.
Though his ended up, a slightly frustrating race !
I narrowed it down to 5 - and they filled the first 5 places.
Unfortunately however, Le Rocher only managed to take the third of those places, with the race won by Diese Aba (who I nominated as the main danger - provided he took to the Sandown course).
Embittered was the final tip to run - and he also ran well, though not quite well enough.
Always in the front half dozen, he just lacked the tactical speed to maintain his potion, when the pace quickened.
He was staying on again, at the end - and ultimately was only beaten 4 lengths into sixth…
It was a bit of a mixed day for the Mentions.
They only had one winner - courtesy of Greaneteen - though I did think he represented their best chance.
The trouble is, he was never available at any bigger than 7/4 - and in a 10 runner handicap, that leaves no margin for error.
He did it well though - and is definitely one to consider for the Grand Annual, at the Cheltenham festival.
Two of the Sandown Mentions, First Flow and Ask Dillon, managed to finish second.
Both ran good races - but weren’t quite up to the task.
The rest of the Mentions didn’t do quite so well, however…
Visions de Flos weakened out of things quite quickly at Sandown. I was expecting better - but his connections weren’t and they were right !
With A Plus Tard withdrawn on the account of the ground, Chacan Pour Soi had Min to beat in the Dublin chase - and he did just that.
It looks as if the Queen Mother champion chase could be the race of the Cheltenham festival.
The 2 remaining Mentions at Leopardstown both ran disappointingly.
Sharjah ran no kind of a race behind Honeysuckle; whilst Snugsborough Benny could never get into it, having been given an exaggerated hold up ride.
Novices/second season novices filled the places in his race - as I half suspected might be the case.
Finally, Bob Mahler led home a 1,2,3 for the good ground lovers at Musselburgh.
The going looked much quicker than I expected - though apparently significant rain arrived just after the race had finished.
That kind of situation, never makes tipping easy !
TVB.
Despite previewing 14 races, I was only able to find 4 tips - and that reduced to 3, when For There was declared a non runner.
In truth, there were quite a lot of late changes: with the ground at both Leopardstown and Mussleburgh, riding quicker than I expected - something which resulted in a few key non runners at the former track…
One of those was Fakir D’Oudaries.
He was one of the favourites in the race in which I tipped Melon - but he was a late defector due to the ground.
I’m not sure whether the ground was also an issue for Melon - but for whatever reason, he ran a lifeless race.
On form, he should have comfortably beaten Gallent John Joe - but whilst that one ran on into a credible third place, Melon was left struggling behind.
I guess they are not machines - but it was still a disappointing effort.
Le Rocher was the second tip to run - and he did much better.
Though his ended up, a slightly frustrating race !
I narrowed it down to 5 - and they filled the first 5 places.
Unfortunately however, Le Rocher only managed to take the third of those places, with the race won by Diese Aba (who I nominated as the main danger - provided he took to the Sandown course).
Embittered was the final tip to run - and he also ran well, though not quite well enough.
Always in the front half dozen, he just lacked the tactical speed to maintain his potion, when the pace quickened.
He was staying on again, at the end - and ultimately was only beaten 4 lengths into sixth…
It was a bit of a mixed day for the Mentions.
They only had one winner - courtesy of Greaneteen - though I did think he represented their best chance.
The trouble is, he was never available at any bigger than 7/4 - and in a 10 runner handicap, that leaves no margin for error.
He did it well though - and is definitely one to consider for the Grand Annual, at the Cheltenham festival.
Two of the Sandown Mentions, First Flow and Ask Dillon, managed to finish second.
Both ran good races - but weren’t quite up to the task.
The rest of the Mentions didn’t do quite so well, however…
Visions de Flos weakened out of things quite quickly at Sandown. I was expecting better - but his connections weren’t and they were right !
With A Plus Tard withdrawn on the account of the ground, Chacan Pour Soi had Min to beat in the Dublin chase - and he did just that.
It looks as if the Queen Mother champion chase could be the race of the Cheltenham festival.
The 2 remaining Mentions at Leopardstown both ran disappointingly.
Sharjah ran no kind of a race behind Honeysuckle; whilst Snugsborough Benny could never get into it, having been given an exaggerated hold up ride.
Novices/second season novices filled the places in his race - as I half suspected might be the case.
Finally, Bob Mahler led home a 1,2,3 for the good ground lovers at Musselburgh.
The going looked much quicker than I expected - though apparently significant rain arrived just after the race had finished.
That kind of situation, never makes tipping easy !
TVB.
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