It was another frustrating day, on which I again managed to
get the borderline calls wrong.
It really does feel like it happens too
often to be a coincidence - the only consolation being, that I’m working my way
up the Naps table as a consequence (I tend to make my best Mention, my Nap
!!)
In my defence, it is incredibly difficult to tip early in any of the
Irish races.
The prices are set so defensively, you would have to be
stunningly good to make a profit at early prices.
It’s caught me out a
few times this season - A Plus Tard and Ballyoisin are 2 that spring readily to
mind.
Sharjan can now be added to that list - and I guess there is an
argument that I should just tip them and ignore the price.
Generally, my
frustration is that the price on offer is much lower than it should be - and
generally, I‘m right !
I would have struggled to claim more than 4/1 on
Sharjan this morning - but his BSP was 8 !
That said, his SP was only
9/2….
It was almost exactly the same story with Ballyoisin.
I need to
think about the best way to handle them.
I know a lot of you will have backed
it because of my comments in the write-up - and because I napped it.
But
officially speaking it doesn’t count for the service numbers - and plenty of you
won’t have backed it !
Anyway, enough about a Mention !!
So far as
the actual tips were concerned - I issued 2 - and they both lost !
I
could tell after 2 fences that Lust for Glory wasn’t going to win.
She went
up in the air at her fences, whereas Maire Banrigh and Baddersely Knight went
forward.
My feeling is that she needs a step up in trip - plus a bit of
jumping practise !
Bob Mahler jumped well enough - he just wasn’t too
keen on the running bit !
Unfortunately for him, he had Paddy Brennan in the
saddle - and he’s not a man to take ‘no’ for an answer.
Paddy gave it his
best shot - and Bob Mahler begrudgingly went along.
As the challenges came
and went, it did briefly look as if he might secure an unlikely
victory.
However the final challenge of Boldmere, was just too much to
resist...
With Minella Indo withdrawn on account of the quickening ground
(I suspect connections of Anabale Fly wish they had done similar yesterday !),
there was only one more Mention on the day: Le Bague as Roi.
She didn’t win -
but she ran a mighty race - and was involved in one of the finishes of the
season.
As at Huntingdon, she jumped from fence to fence - and even when
Happy Diva challenged at the last, she refused to lie down.
However Lady
Buttons appeared over the top of them both, and got up by a head in a driving
finish.
It really was a tremendous race - and a great advert for the mares
series….
TVB.
Sunday, 29 December 2019
Daily write-up - Dec 29th
There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Doncaster and
Kelso in the UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.
It’s the final day of the festivals at the 2 Irish courses - and that signals the end of the festive racing period.
It’s been 4 very intense days - and I have to admit that I’m looking forward to seeing a bit of daylight !
I was hopeful that today might provide some decent opportunities - but they aren’t quite as many as I expected !
Aside from a good quality race at Limerick, there is little of interest, either there - or at Kelso.
Leopardstown host a couple of grade 1 events - but they are contested by small fields and have short priced favourites.
The best racing from a betting perspective, takes place at Doncaster - and I’d got fancies in a few of the races - though tipping them was a different matter !
I really couldn’t believe how weak the markets were - even at 10:30…
I eventually decided to take a risk and issue a couple of tips regardless.
I think that both races look sufficiently competitive for the the prices not to crash completely - though I guess time will tell on that score !
Anyway, here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other big races at both Doncaster and Leopardstown.
Doncaster
12:25
I want to take a chance on Lust for Glory in this.
She is making her fencing debut under rules - but won her only PTP and has apparently schooled well over the bigger obstacles, at home.
Her most recent run was in a very strong mares race at Cheltenham.
She was sent off at just 5/1 for that race - but pulled too hard and weakened late on.
The soft ground probably didn’t suit her that day either - so on a quicker surface, and over half a mile less, I would be far more optimistic about her getting home.
It probably also helps her chances that Nico de Boinville takes over in the saddle from Sam Waley-Cohen (I’ve nothing against the latter - but he’s unlikely to have the strength of De Boinville).
I think it will also help her chances that Maire Banrigh is in the race.
She is a confirmed front runner and so is likely to set a strong pace which should help Lust for Glory.
In fairness, this is quite an open race.
There may only be 5 runners, but all 5 look to have a chance.
That said, I think Lust for Glory could be a fair bit better than her current rating - so in conditions which should suit her well, I think she is worth supporting.
1:35
As mares race go, they don’t come much better than this !
There are just 7 runners - and only 4 (5 at a push), have a chance of winning - but it’s still a cracking contest.
Of the ‘big 4’ then Casablanca Mix is the one I like least.
She is actually the highest rated in the field - but she acquired that rating during the summer, and I’m always suspicious when that happens (the races aren't as strong).
She is held on form by Happy Diva, from a race at Huntingdon last season - and I see little reason why it should be reversed this afternoon.
Happy Diva is the next one I would eliminate - though not with huge conviction !
She did us a massive favour when winning the Paddy Power chase last time - but I just feel that she needs a bit more of a stamina test than she is likely to get this afternoon, on the relatively quick ground (probably !).
Lady Buttons won the corresponding race last season - and she has every chance of following up this afternoon.
She is a truly likeable mare - talented and consistent - and it will take a good one to beat her.
The problem for her, is that La Bague au Roi is a good one - a very good one !
Her form from last season stands up to the closest scrutiny - and whilst she disappointed on her seasonal debut at Wetherby, she bounced back last time at Huntingdon.
I expect Dickie to try and make all on her - and I just think that she may prove a bit too good for her rivals to pass.
This is likely to be a really tight race - so any jumping errors or misjudgement of pace, could prove crucial.
As a consequence, I can’t consider supporting her at 5/2 (my minimum target price would be 7/2).
Dalial du Seuil os the other one to briefly consider.
She’s very hard to quantify - but will need to be exceptional if she is to get win.
Ultimately, its just not a race I feel I can play in.
I like La Bague au Roi best - but would want a bigger price to encourage me to risk getting involved.
2:45
Bob Mahler caught my eye last time - and I think he is worth supporting in this.
Following a couple of poor runs: one at the back of last season - and first time out this season, he bounced back to form last time, in a better class race than todays, at Haydock.
He was no match for the winner, Crievehill that day - but he showed up well to the home turn and it very much looked as if he was returning to form.
And if he’s back in the form he showed when winning at Newbury and Cheltenham last spring, then I think he’s going to be hard to beat today.
In fact, on the back of his Cheltenham win, connections were talking about a tilt at the Ladbroke trophy (formerly the Hennessey) - and if he could have been competitive in that, then a race of todays nature should be well within his compass.
Certainly he’s always been considered a decent horse - so a rating of 135 could easily under-estimate him.
He also only 7 years old - so there is still time for him to improve.
In terms of his opponents today, then nothing really stands out.
Spiders Bite looks the most dangerous - with a run under his belt and Dickie on board; whilst I could also give half chance to 2 or 3 others.
That said, I like Bob Mahler best - and at odds of 11/2, think he is worth siding with.
Leopardstown
1:55
The betting suggests that this should rest between Battleoverodyen and Minella Indo - and that’s probably how it will work out.
Both were top class novice hurdlers last season: the former being sent off a short priced favourite for the Ballymore properties hurdle at the Cheltenham festival (in which disappointed); whilst the latter won the Albert Bartlett hurdle (at a massive price !).
They have switched their attention to fences this season, and Battleofdoyen is unbeaten in 2 runs; whilst Minella Indo finished a creditable second to Laurina, over an unsuitably short trip.
It’s very hard to choose between the pair this afternoon, and the difference is likely to come from jumping, race pace - or ability to act on the ground (3 variables which we have limited knowledge of, in advance of the race).
If forced off the fence, I would side with Minella Indo - but I won’t be backing him, at odds of 2/1.
In truth, you couldn’t be completely confident that it will just be a 2 horse race.
Both Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, have form close enough to the principals, to make them dangerous; whilst the 2 outsiders have form close enough to Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, to almost make any result a possibility !
Time to move on…
2:30
I was hoping to take a risk on Sharjah in this - but I was hoping for a big price !
He’s the lesser fancied stablemate of favourite, Klassical Dreamer - and he finished a fair way behind that one when both disappointed on their seasonal debuts at Punchestown, last month.
Prior to that race, Klassical Dreamer was the favourite for the Champion hurdle - but that set back saw him drift out a few points.
The confidence now seems back in him (partly due to a lack of credible opponents in the Champion) - and he is a short priced favourite for this.
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did win today - and reclaimed favourite for the Champion - but equally, it wouldn't surprise me if he were beaten.
My hope was that the market would significantly side with him - and I guess that may still happen - but it’s not done yet !
Sharjah at 6/1 or better, would be a tip - Sharjah at 5/1, is right on the cusp…
That’s partly because this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Coeur Sublime was massively impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Down Royal and has been targeted a this race.
I expected him to be priced up shorter than the currnet 4/1.
I also couldn’t totally dismiss Petit Mouchoir. He finished ahead of both Klassical Dream and Sharjah, last time - though did have a fitness advantage.
I don’t really fancy Darasso , as I think he needs softer ground - but equally, I acknowledge that he can’t be completely dismissed.
Ultimately, I think this is just too hard a race to get involved with early.
Sharjah is the one I’m most inclined to side with - but I’m not sufficiently keen to take the 9/2 currently on offer…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Donc 12:25 Lust for Glory 1pt win 5/1
Donc 2:45 Bob Mahler 1pt win 11/2
Mentions
Donc 1:35 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 1:55 Minella Indo (O )
Leop 2:30 Sharjah (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
It’s the final day of the festivals at the 2 Irish courses - and that signals the end of the festive racing period.
It’s been 4 very intense days - and I have to admit that I’m looking forward to seeing a bit of daylight !
I was hopeful that today might provide some decent opportunities - but they aren’t quite as many as I expected !
Aside from a good quality race at Limerick, there is little of interest, either there - or at Kelso.
Leopardstown host a couple of grade 1 events - but they are contested by small fields and have short priced favourites.
The best racing from a betting perspective, takes place at Doncaster - and I’d got fancies in a few of the races - though tipping them was a different matter !
I really couldn’t believe how weak the markets were - even at 10:30…
I eventually decided to take a risk and issue a couple of tips regardless.
I think that both races look sufficiently competitive for the the prices not to crash completely - though I guess time will tell on that score !
Anyway, here is the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the other big races at both Doncaster and Leopardstown.
Doncaster
12:25
I want to take a chance on Lust for Glory in this.
She is making her fencing debut under rules - but won her only PTP and has apparently schooled well over the bigger obstacles, at home.
Her most recent run was in a very strong mares race at Cheltenham.
She was sent off at just 5/1 for that race - but pulled too hard and weakened late on.
The soft ground probably didn’t suit her that day either - so on a quicker surface, and over half a mile less, I would be far more optimistic about her getting home.
It probably also helps her chances that Nico de Boinville takes over in the saddle from Sam Waley-Cohen (I’ve nothing against the latter - but he’s unlikely to have the strength of De Boinville).
I think it will also help her chances that Maire Banrigh is in the race.
She is a confirmed front runner and so is likely to set a strong pace which should help Lust for Glory.
In fairness, this is quite an open race.
There may only be 5 runners, but all 5 look to have a chance.
That said, I think Lust for Glory could be a fair bit better than her current rating - so in conditions which should suit her well, I think she is worth supporting.
1:35
As mares race go, they don’t come much better than this !
There are just 7 runners - and only 4 (5 at a push), have a chance of winning - but it’s still a cracking contest.
Of the ‘big 4’ then Casablanca Mix is the one I like least.
She is actually the highest rated in the field - but she acquired that rating during the summer, and I’m always suspicious when that happens (the races aren't as strong).
She is held on form by Happy Diva, from a race at Huntingdon last season - and I see little reason why it should be reversed this afternoon.
Happy Diva is the next one I would eliminate - though not with huge conviction !
She did us a massive favour when winning the Paddy Power chase last time - but I just feel that she needs a bit more of a stamina test than she is likely to get this afternoon, on the relatively quick ground (probably !).
Lady Buttons won the corresponding race last season - and she has every chance of following up this afternoon.
She is a truly likeable mare - talented and consistent - and it will take a good one to beat her.
The problem for her, is that La Bague au Roi is a good one - a very good one !
Her form from last season stands up to the closest scrutiny - and whilst she disappointed on her seasonal debut at Wetherby, she bounced back last time at Huntingdon.
I expect Dickie to try and make all on her - and I just think that she may prove a bit too good for her rivals to pass.
This is likely to be a really tight race - so any jumping errors or misjudgement of pace, could prove crucial.
As a consequence, I can’t consider supporting her at 5/2 (my minimum target price would be 7/2).
Dalial du Seuil os the other one to briefly consider.
She’s very hard to quantify - but will need to be exceptional if she is to get win.
Ultimately, its just not a race I feel I can play in.
I like La Bague au Roi best - but would want a bigger price to encourage me to risk getting involved.
2:45
Bob Mahler caught my eye last time - and I think he is worth supporting in this.
Following a couple of poor runs: one at the back of last season - and first time out this season, he bounced back to form last time, in a better class race than todays, at Haydock.
He was no match for the winner, Crievehill that day - but he showed up well to the home turn and it very much looked as if he was returning to form.
And if he’s back in the form he showed when winning at Newbury and Cheltenham last spring, then I think he’s going to be hard to beat today.
In fact, on the back of his Cheltenham win, connections were talking about a tilt at the Ladbroke trophy (formerly the Hennessey) - and if he could have been competitive in that, then a race of todays nature should be well within his compass.
Certainly he’s always been considered a decent horse - so a rating of 135 could easily under-estimate him.
He also only 7 years old - so there is still time for him to improve.
In terms of his opponents today, then nothing really stands out.
Spiders Bite looks the most dangerous - with a run under his belt and Dickie on board; whilst I could also give half chance to 2 or 3 others.
That said, I like Bob Mahler best - and at odds of 11/2, think he is worth siding with.
Leopardstown
1:55
The betting suggests that this should rest between Battleoverodyen and Minella Indo - and that’s probably how it will work out.
Both were top class novice hurdlers last season: the former being sent off a short priced favourite for the Ballymore properties hurdle at the Cheltenham festival (in which disappointed); whilst the latter won the Albert Bartlett hurdle (at a massive price !).
They have switched their attention to fences this season, and Battleofdoyen is unbeaten in 2 runs; whilst Minella Indo finished a creditable second to Laurina, over an unsuitably short trip.
It’s very hard to choose between the pair this afternoon, and the difference is likely to come from jumping, race pace - or ability to act on the ground (3 variables which we have limited knowledge of, in advance of the race).
If forced off the fence, I would side with Minella Indo - but I won’t be backing him, at odds of 2/1.
In truth, you couldn’t be completely confident that it will just be a 2 horse race.
Both Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, have form close enough to the principals, to make them dangerous; whilst the 2 outsiders have form close enough to Champagne Classic and Carefully Selected, to almost make any result a possibility !
Time to move on…
2:30
I was hoping to take a risk on Sharjah in this - but I was hoping for a big price !
He’s the lesser fancied stablemate of favourite, Klassical Dreamer - and he finished a fair way behind that one when both disappointed on their seasonal debuts at Punchestown, last month.
Prior to that race, Klassical Dreamer was the favourite for the Champion hurdle - but that set back saw him drift out a few points.
The confidence now seems back in him (partly due to a lack of credible opponents in the Champion) - and he is a short priced favourite for this.
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did win today - and reclaimed favourite for the Champion - but equally, it wouldn't surprise me if he were beaten.
My hope was that the market would significantly side with him - and I guess that may still happen - but it’s not done yet !
Sharjah at 6/1 or better, would be a tip - Sharjah at 5/1, is right on the cusp…
That’s partly because this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Coeur Sublime was massively impressive when winning on his seasonal debut at Down Royal and has been targeted a this race.
I expected him to be priced up shorter than the currnet 4/1.
I also couldn’t totally dismiss Petit Mouchoir. He finished ahead of both Klassical Dream and Sharjah, last time - though did have a fitness advantage.
I don’t really fancy Darasso , as I think he needs softer ground - but equally, I acknowledge that he can’t be completely dismissed.
Ultimately, I think this is just too hard a race to get involved with early.
Sharjah is the one I’m most inclined to side with - but I’m not sufficiently keen to take the 9/2 currently on offer…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Donc 12:25 Lust for Glory 1pt win 5/1
Donc 2:45 Bob Mahler 1pt win 11/2
Mentions
Donc 1:35 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 1:55 Minella Indo (O )
Leop 2:30 Sharjah (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
I don’t want it to sound like sour grapes - but the state of
the ground is driving me mad at the moment !
Having gone through weeks where it has been softer than I expected, because of late rain: we’ve now had 2 days when conditions have been quicker than I expected, due to no rain !
Kempton was riding quicker than I expected yesterday: and it was the same today, at both Newbury and Leopardstown.
This game is hard enough without having to hit a moving target !
2 of todays tips were selected because I expected them to be running in near bottom-less conditions - but that just wasn’t the case….
Anyway…!!
Suffice to say it ended up a blank day - and the state of the ground didn’t help !
The first tip to run was Chozen - and I would have had no issue with quick ground for him.
He also got an uncontested lead - so the fact he ended up finishing last, has to be considered disappointing !
I guess he may have needed the run - but more likely, he simply wasn’t good enough.
Indy Five was the next tip to run - and ultimately he wasn’t good enough either - but my, how he tried !
Again, the ground wouldn’t have been an issue for him - but having to sit in behind Strong Pursuit in the early stages, wouldn’t have helped.
I was hoping that he might get an uncontested lead, allowing Gavin Sheehan to set his own fractions - but that’s not how it panned out.
All the same, he managed to see off Strong Pursuit - and turning in, looked to have every chance.
However the favourite, Copperhead was cruising in behind.
I still hope that Indy Fives sound jumping might put the favourite under pressure - but that’s not how it worked out and ultimately it was Indy Five who payed the price with a crashing fall at the last, when trying to match the favourite.
He really didn’t deserve that.
He might not have won - but he was certainly the second best horse in the race.
Kateson was the final tip at Newbury - and I tipped him mainly because I expected soft ground.
I felt the writing was on the wall before the race started - and sure enough, he never really looked comfortable, at the back of the field.
He plugged on to take a distant fifth in the closing stages - and I guess his mark will be adjusted down as a consequence.
We’ll just have to hope we can get him on another - more suitable - day…
It was a similar story with Anabale Fly at Leopardstown.
I watched the racing there yesterday, and the ground looked borderline heavy.
However, a drying wind did its job today - and the official going description was change to ‘Yielding - with good places’.
You couldn’t make it up !
Suffice to say, that was no good for Anabale Fly, who simply doesn’t have the pace to stay with top class chasers over 3 miles.
Again, we’ll have to hope for another day with him.
Redhotfillypeppers was the only other tip on the day - and she ran a weird race.
Turning for home, she looked to be going very easily - and almost touched even money in-running.
However, within a few strides she was going nowhere - and ended up well beaten.
Maybe she has a breathing issue - I really don’t know.
Suffice to say won’t be as keen to give her another chance…
As for the Mentions:
Then Sevarano was another one who seemed to get caught out by the relatively quick ground at Newbury. He briefly threatened to get involved - but then decided against it !
I also thought that Thyme Hill struggled a bit in conditions - and it was simply his class that got him home in front.
Finally, Apples Jade turned back the clock at Leopardstown and was a convincing winner in her first time blinkers.
She was a weak 3/1 shot when I issued the write-up - but was sent off a very well backed 6/4 jt fav.
It’s funny how often that kind of thing happens…
TVB.
Having gone through weeks where it has been softer than I expected, because of late rain: we’ve now had 2 days when conditions have been quicker than I expected, due to no rain !
Kempton was riding quicker than I expected yesterday: and it was the same today, at both Newbury and Leopardstown.
This game is hard enough without having to hit a moving target !
2 of todays tips were selected because I expected them to be running in near bottom-less conditions - but that just wasn’t the case….
Anyway…!!
Suffice to say it ended up a blank day - and the state of the ground didn’t help !
The first tip to run was Chozen - and I would have had no issue with quick ground for him.
He also got an uncontested lead - so the fact he ended up finishing last, has to be considered disappointing !
I guess he may have needed the run - but more likely, he simply wasn’t good enough.
Indy Five was the next tip to run - and ultimately he wasn’t good enough either - but my, how he tried !
Again, the ground wouldn’t have been an issue for him - but having to sit in behind Strong Pursuit in the early stages, wouldn’t have helped.
I was hoping that he might get an uncontested lead, allowing Gavin Sheehan to set his own fractions - but that’s not how it panned out.
All the same, he managed to see off Strong Pursuit - and turning in, looked to have every chance.
However the favourite, Copperhead was cruising in behind.
I still hope that Indy Fives sound jumping might put the favourite under pressure - but that’s not how it worked out and ultimately it was Indy Five who payed the price with a crashing fall at the last, when trying to match the favourite.
He really didn’t deserve that.
He might not have won - but he was certainly the second best horse in the race.
Kateson was the final tip at Newbury - and I tipped him mainly because I expected soft ground.
I felt the writing was on the wall before the race started - and sure enough, he never really looked comfortable, at the back of the field.
He plugged on to take a distant fifth in the closing stages - and I guess his mark will be adjusted down as a consequence.
We’ll just have to hope we can get him on another - more suitable - day…
It was a similar story with Anabale Fly at Leopardstown.
I watched the racing there yesterday, and the ground looked borderline heavy.
However, a drying wind did its job today - and the official going description was change to ‘Yielding - with good places’.
You couldn’t make it up !
Suffice to say, that was no good for Anabale Fly, who simply doesn’t have the pace to stay with top class chasers over 3 miles.
Again, we’ll have to hope for another day with him.
Redhotfillypeppers was the only other tip on the day - and she ran a weird race.
Turning for home, she looked to be going very easily - and almost touched even money in-running.
However, within a few strides she was going nowhere - and ended up well beaten.
Maybe she has a breathing issue - I really don’t know.
Suffice to say won’t be as keen to give her another chance…
As for the Mentions:
Then Sevarano was another one who seemed to get caught out by the relatively quick ground at Newbury. He briefly threatened to get involved - but then decided against it !
I also thought that Thyme Hill struggled a bit in conditions - and it was simply his class that got him home in front.
Finally, Apples Jade turned back the clock at Leopardstown and was a convincing winner in her first time blinkers.
She was a weak 3/1 shot when I issued the write-up - but was sent off a very well backed 6/4 jt fav.
It’s funny how often that kind of thing happens…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 28th
There are 5 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Leicester and
Catterick in the UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.
The number of meetings may be the same as yesterday - but I can sense the pace beginning to slacken a little (thank goodness !)
Newbury host the only meeting of real note in the UK: and whilst there is a grade 1 contest - the Challow hurdle - top level races don’t come much more low key !
Over in Ireland, it’s day 3 of the Christmas festivals at both Leopardstown and Limerick.
In fairness, the Leopardstown card is arguably the strongest of the week - with the feature Savills chase a real treat.
Similarly, Limerick put on decent quality card, with a strong feature handicap.
Needless to say, it wasn’t too much of a job to find some potential tips for the day - and I managed to convert 5 of them in actual tips.
Let’s hope I’ve hit on the ‘right’ ones today !
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the days other big races…
Newbury
1:15
I quite like the look of Chozen in this.
He won on his seasonal - and chasing debut - at Southwell, at the start of last season.
He probably would have won next time as well - but fell when going strongly at Newcastle.
He didn’t run again for nearly 6 months - but then made a successful return at Ffos Las, when he battled on gamely for a narrow win.
Those 2 victories show that he is a horse who’s at his best when fresh.
Given his running style, that’s not a great surprise, as he is a very keen racer.
The Ffos Las win also shows that he can handle cut in the ground: if you can cope with Ffos Las soft, you can cope with soft, just about anywhere !
The doubts concern his level of ability - as this is a better race than he usually contests.
That said, he is just 7 - and has only raced 11 times under rules - so it’s quite likely that he’s not yet reached his peak.
Assuming he is allowed to stride on (which is what I expect), then he could get an uncontested lead.
If that happens - and assuming his jumping holds up - then I think he could be hard to peg back.
1:50
I was half tempted by Soul Emotion in this.
Just over a year ago, he ran in the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle at Ascot,
He was quite well fancied for that race, but disappointed - and worse, collapsed after crossing the line.
Thankfully he recovered - and there were no signs of lasting damage when he made his return at Newbury, last month.
He ran a fair race that day - travelling nicely to the home straight, when a lack of peak fitness seemed to catch him out.
The handicapper has dropped him 3lb for that run - but he is still on a mark of 147, which is high.
He may be up to defying it - but this is a tough race as he’s in against some potential improvers…
One for Rosie and Severano are the 2 obvious ones - with the last named looking particularly dangerous.
He’s still a novice - but he’s an experienced one - and a talented one.
I suspect his mark of 134, under-estimates him and he looks the most likely race winner, to me.
Now look at Me and Dorking Boy are other potential dangers, in a race which is likely to throw up more than its fair share of future winners.
2:25
I think it is worth taking a risk on Indy Five in this.
With recent form figures of F0PP, the case form him doesn’t stand out - but if you delve a little deeper, it’s not hard to make…
Prior that uninspiring run, his form figures read 1F12 - and more than that, they had some real substance to them.
The second place, was behind subsequent Scottish National winner, Takingrisks.
Indy Five ran him to 2 lengths, with the winner running from a mark 20lb lower than he is currently rated.
Indy Five on the other hand, was running from a mark 14lb higher than the one he races off today.
If the 2 of them met now, Takingrisks would be 34lb worse off for a 2 length victory !
Ofcourse, weights and distances don’t tell all - the other important factor is the form of the horse.
The suggestion is that Indy Five is right out of form - but I’m not convinced that is the case.
Last time, he travelled with real purpose at Wincanton - despite an SP of 50/1 - only weakening out of things, after the home turn.
If that run was needed (which may well have been the case), then I can see him going very close today.
He won over todays course, 2 seasons ago - and on soft ground. That was also off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
In short, if he’s back to form, he could easily win this - and that’s not often something you can say about a 20/1 shot !
3:00
£25K for winning a grade 1 race seems pretty poor - but that’s the first prize on offer for this race.
In fairness, it’s still attracted a decent field - I guess the prestige helps with that.
Thyme Hill heads the market - and he strikes me as by far the most likely winner.
He finished third in a red hot edition of the Champion bumper, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and has made a seamless switch to hurdles.
He won the grade 2 Persian War hurdle on his seasonal debut: and followed that up by winning another grade 2 event at the Cheltenham November meeting.
On each occasion, he was a comfortable victor - and it’s hard to know how good he is.
My guess is that he’s pretty good - and whilst he faces some useful opposition today, I expect them to be dispatched in similar fashion.
The market makes The Cashel Man his chief rival - and whilst the formbook agrees, he hasn’t got the same potential for improvement as the other 3 runners.
Ofcourse, they may simply not be good enough - but I’d still rather take a risk on one of them, if I was going to oppose the favourite.
Eclair Surf is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - though the market is likely to gives clues as to whether any of them will be good enough.
Without that knowledge, I’d have to side with the favourite.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Kateson in this.
I tipped him last season, when he was beaten at Aintree - but I don’t think he handled the quick ground that day.
He really wants cut - and granted those conditions, it strikes me that he will prove himself much better than his current rating of 138.
Certainly, if you look at his hurdle form of last season, you don’t see a 138 rated horse.
He ran a close third in the Challow hurlde on this card 12 months ago, and was surrounded by horses who are all now rated in the 150s.
That’s more how I view him - but a series of runs on unsuitable ground have resulted in him being rated significantly lower.
In fairness, he did get soft ground on his most recent run - when making his chasing debut at Exeter.
He was beaten that day - but I suspect that was because his jockey committed him too early.
He looked by far the best horse in the race - but was worried out of things close home, by a real battler.
I would hope that connections will have learnt from that and he will be delivered later this afternoon.
In truth, he does face some potentially decent rivals today, so he will need to be near the top of his game.
Morning Vicar is a definite danger on his chasing debut.
He too could be very well handicapped - and he has been very well backed !
Down the Highway is the other one that particularly interests me.
I tipped him last time when he disappointed a Chepstow - though it later transpired that he hurt himself stepping on his shoe.
If you ignore that run, he is over-priced at 12/1.
Leopardstown
2:00
It feels a little strange for Apples Jade not to be a short priced fav for a race of this nature…
For so long, she has dominated these kind of races - certainly in the first half of the season - but her star appears to be on the wane…
It all started to go wrong in last seasons Champion hurdle.
She was sent off a short priced fav for that race - but ran really disappointingly.
She bounced back at Aintree - where although she was beaten, she showed more of her old zest. However that was the last time we saw her sparkle…
Another disappointing run at Punchestown has been followed by 2 below par efforts this season.
Simply, she doesn’t look the horse she once was.
Connections reach for cheek pieces today - but it looks to be more in hope, than expectation…
Assuming she continues in the doldrums, then this race looks between the Willie Mullins duo: Penhill and Barcardys.
Paul Townend has plumped for the latter - and that probably explains why he is favourite.
Penhill is the slightly better horse according to official ratings - and is also the more likely to be suited by the 3 mile trip.
I would find it hard to choose between the pair - so at odds of 7/2, would have to go with Penhill.
In truth though, this is probably a watching race…
3:10
It strikes me that Anibale Fly is seriously over-priced in this race.
To some extent, I can understand why.
He’s 9 years old - and up against some younger, improving horses, who have already shown top class form.
He also finished last on his seasonal debut (miles behind Presenting Percy) - and prior to that, had run in a handicap (admittedly it was the Grand National - but all the same !).
However, it is also possible to view him far more positively…
He has been placed in the last 2 runnings of the Cheltenham Gold cup - and on those pieces of form he holds both Presenting Percy and Road to Respect (the second and third favs in todays race).
He also hacked up in the Paddy Power chase, 2 years ago - showing that todays course and distance are perfect for him.
However, the real key to Anibale Fly, is soft ground.
Given soft ground, he is more than capable of mixing it with the best of them, over 3 miles.
And soft ground is precisely what he will get this afternoon.
In fact, watching the racing at Leopardstown yesterday, I was surprised at just how soft it appeared to be riding.
If this turns into a war of attrition, then it will suit Anibale fly perfectly - and with Monalee and Kemboy in the race, that has to be a possibility.
If he returns in peak form, then Kemboy is clearly the one to beat - but I wouldn’t want to take 7/4 on a seasonal debutante in a race of this nature.
Presenting Percy is the other one I fear - though he still has to prove he is back to his best.
I reckon a peak form Anibale Fly can deal with the rest - so lets just hope the 2 big guns aren’t firing on all cylinders !
Limerick
2:50
I wouldn’t ordinarily tip at one of the minor meetings - but this is a big race, so hopefully it will work OK.
I was slightly fearful of Redhotfillypeppers,when I tipped Chris’s Dream in the Troytown, back in November.
Consequently, I kept quite a close eye on her throughout the race - and she travelled really well.
However, she was ultimately found out, either by the trip - or by a lack of fitness - and she ended up a well beaten fifth.
In fairness, that as still a very good run.
The Troytown is a top handicap - and Fitzhenry and Winter Escape, 2 of the horse who ran well in that race, franked the form by also running well in yesterdays Paddy Power chase.
The Paddy Power winner, Roaring Bull, was well behind that day - but I suspect he showed much improved form yesterday !
I don’t think Redhotfillypeppers will have to improve very much at all, to take this.
Her form from last season, suggests that she is competitively handicapped on a mark of 130 - though she is still young enough to be open to improvement.
I also like the fact that she is Willie Mullins sole runner in the race.
I’m sure his focus is currently on Leopardstown - but he is still the man to beat in races like this.
Of the others, the Shady Operator is definitely worth a mention.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, before disappointing last time, in the Troytown.
He sports first time blinkers today - and if they liven him up, he could be capable of outrunning his odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 1:15 Chozen 0.5pt win 16/1
Newb 2:25 Indy Five 0.5pt win 20/1
Newb 3:35 Kateson 1pt win 11/2
Leop 3:10 Anibale Fly 0.5pt win 25/1
Lim 2:50 Redhotfillypeppers 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Newb 1:50 Servano (O )
Newb 3:00 Thyme Hill (P )
Leop 2:00 Penhill (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
The number of meetings may be the same as yesterday - but I can sense the pace beginning to slacken a little (thank goodness !)
Newbury host the only meeting of real note in the UK: and whilst there is a grade 1 contest - the Challow hurdle - top level races don’t come much more low key !
Over in Ireland, it’s day 3 of the Christmas festivals at both Leopardstown and Limerick.
In fairness, the Leopardstown card is arguably the strongest of the week - with the feature Savills chase a real treat.
Similarly, Limerick put on decent quality card, with a strong feature handicap.
Needless to say, it wasn’t too much of a job to find some potential tips for the day - and I managed to convert 5 of them in actual tips.
Let’s hope I’ve hit on the ‘right’ ones today !
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the days other big races…
Newbury
1:15
I quite like the look of Chozen in this.
He won on his seasonal - and chasing debut - at Southwell, at the start of last season.
He probably would have won next time as well - but fell when going strongly at Newcastle.
He didn’t run again for nearly 6 months - but then made a successful return at Ffos Las, when he battled on gamely for a narrow win.
Those 2 victories show that he is a horse who’s at his best when fresh.
Given his running style, that’s not a great surprise, as he is a very keen racer.
The Ffos Las win also shows that he can handle cut in the ground: if you can cope with Ffos Las soft, you can cope with soft, just about anywhere !
The doubts concern his level of ability - as this is a better race than he usually contests.
That said, he is just 7 - and has only raced 11 times under rules - so it’s quite likely that he’s not yet reached his peak.
Assuming he is allowed to stride on (which is what I expect), then he could get an uncontested lead.
If that happens - and assuming his jumping holds up - then I think he could be hard to peg back.
1:50
I was half tempted by Soul Emotion in this.
Just over a year ago, he ran in the Grade 1 Long Walk hurdle at Ascot,
He was quite well fancied for that race, but disappointed - and worse, collapsed after crossing the line.
Thankfully he recovered - and there were no signs of lasting damage when he made his return at Newbury, last month.
He ran a fair race that day - travelling nicely to the home straight, when a lack of peak fitness seemed to catch him out.
The handicapper has dropped him 3lb for that run - but he is still on a mark of 147, which is high.
He may be up to defying it - but this is a tough race as he’s in against some potential improvers…
One for Rosie and Severano are the 2 obvious ones - with the last named looking particularly dangerous.
He’s still a novice - but he’s an experienced one - and a talented one.
I suspect his mark of 134, under-estimates him and he looks the most likely race winner, to me.
Now look at Me and Dorking Boy are other potential dangers, in a race which is likely to throw up more than its fair share of future winners.
2:25
I think it is worth taking a risk on Indy Five in this.
With recent form figures of F0PP, the case form him doesn’t stand out - but if you delve a little deeper, it’s not hard to make…
Prior that uninspiring run, his form figures read 1F12 - and more than that, they had some real substance to them.
The second place, was behind subsequent Scottish National winner, Takingrisks.
Indy Five ran him to 2 lengths, with the winner running from a mark 20lb lower than he is currently rated.
Indy Five on the other hand, was running from a mark 14lb higher than the one he races off today.
If the 2 of them met now, Takingrisks would be 34lb worse off for a 2 length victory !
Ofcourse, weights and distances don’t tell all - the other important factor is the form of the horse.
The suggestion is that Indy Five is right out of form - but I’m not convinced that is the case.
Last time, he travelled with real purpose at Wincanton - despite an SP of 50/1 - only weakening out of things, after the home turn.
If that run was needed (which may well have been the case), then I can see him going very close today.
He won over todays course, 2 seasons ago - and on soft ground. That was also off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
In short, if he’s back to form, he could easily win this - and that’s not often something you can say about a 20/1 shot !
3:00
£25K for winning a grade 1 race seems pretty poor - but that’s the first prize on offer for this race.
In fairness, it’s still attracted a decent field - I guess the prestige helps with that.
Thyme Hill heads the market - and he strikes me as by far the most likely winner.
He finished third in a red hot edition of the Champion bumper, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and has made a seamless switch to hurdles.
He won the grade 2 Persian War hurdle on his seasonal debut: and followed that up by winning another grade 2 event at the Cheltenham November meeting.
On each occasion, he was a comfortable victor - and it’s hard to know how good he is.
My guess is that he’s pretty good - and whilst he faces some useful opposition today, I expect them to be dispatched in similar fashion.
The market makes The Cashel Man his chief rival - and whilst the formbook agrees, he hasn’t got the same potential for improvement as the other 3 runners.
Ofcourse, they may simply not be good enough - but I’d still rather take a risk on one of them, if I was going to oppose the favourite.
Eclair Surf is possibly the most interesting of the 3 - though the market is likely to gives clues as to whether any of them will be good enough.
Without that knowledge, I’d have to side with the favourite.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Kateson in this.
I tipped him last season, when he was beaten at Aintree - but I don’t think he handled the quick ground that day.
He really wants cut - and granted those conditions, it strikes me that he will prove himself much better than his current rating of 138.
Certainly, if you look at his hurdle form of last season, you don’t see a 138 rated horse.
He ran a close third in the Challow hurlde on this card 12 months ago, and was surrounded by horses who are all now rated in the 150s.
That’s more how I view him - but a series of runs on unsuitable ground have resulted in him being rated significantly lower.
In fairness, he did get soft ground on his most recent run - when making his chasing debut at Exeter.
He was beaten that day - but I suspect that was because his jockey committed him too early.
He looked by far the best horse in the race - but was worried out of things close home, by a real battler.
I would hope that connections will have learnt from that and he will be delivered later this afternoon.
In truth, he does face some potentially decent rivals today, so he will need to be near the top of his game.
Morning Vicar is a definite danger on his chasing debut.
He too could be very well handicapped - and he has been very well backed !
Down the Highway is the other one that particularly interests me.
I tipped him last time when he disappointed a Chepstow - though it later transpired that he hurt himself stepping on his shoe.
If you ignore that run, he is over-priced at 12/1.
Leopardstown
2:00
It feels a little strange for Apples Jade not to be a short priced fav for a race of this nature…
For so long, she has dominated these kind of races - certainly in the first half of the season - but her star appears to be on the wane…
It all started to go wrong in last seasons Champion hurdle.
She was sent off a short priced fav for that race - but ran really disappointingly.
She bounced back at Aintree - where although she was beaten, she showed more of her old zest. However that was the last time we saw her sparkle…
Another disappointing run at Punchestown has been followed by 2 below par efforts this season.
Simply, she doesn’t look the horse she once was.
Connections reach for cheek pieces today - but it looks to be more in hope, than expectation…
Assuming she continues in the doldrums, then this race looks between the Willie Mullins duo: Penhill and Barcardys.
Paul Townend has plumped for the latter - and that probably explains why he is favourite.
Penhill is the slightly better horse according to official ratings - and is also the more likely to be suited by the 3 mile trip.
I would find it hard to choose between the pair - so at odds of 7/2, would have to go with Penhill.
In truth though, this is probably a watching race…
3:10
It strikes me that Anibale Fly is seriously over-priced in this race.
To some extent, I can understand why.
He’s 9 years old - and up against some younger, improving horses, who have already shown top class form.
He also finished last on his seasonal debut (miles behind Presenting Percy) - and prior to that, had run in a handicap (admittedly it was the Grand National - but all the same !).
However, it is also possible to view him far more positively…
He has been placed in the last 2 runnings of the Cheltenham Gold cup - and on those pieces of form he holds both Presenting Percy and Road to Respect (the second and third favs in todays race).
He also hacked up in the Paddy Power chase, 2 years ago - showing that todays course and distance are perfect for him.
However, the real key to Anibale Fly, is soft ground.
Given soft ground, he is more than capable of mixing it with the best of them, over 3 miles.
And soft ground is precisely what he will get this afternoon.
In fact, watching the racing at Leopardstown yesterday, I was surprised at just how soft it appeared to be riding.
If this turns into a war of attrition, then it will suit Anibale fly perfectly - and with Monalee and Kemboy in the race, that has to be a possibility.
If he returns in peak form, then Kemboy is clearly the one to beat - but I wouldn’t want to take 7/4 on a seasonal debutante in a race of this nature.
Presenting Percy is the other one I fear - though he still has to prove he is back to his best.
I reckon a peak form Anibale Fly can deal with the rest - so lets just hope the 2 big guns aren’t firing on all cylinders !
Limerick
2:50
I wouldn’t ordinarily tip at one of the minor meetings - but this is a big race, so hopefully it will work OK.
I was slightly fearful of Redhotfillypeppers,when I tipped Chris’s Dream in the Troytown, back in November.
Consequently, I kept quite a close eye on her throughout the race - and she travelled really well.
However, she was ultimately found out, either by the trip - or by a lack of fitness - and she ended up a well beaten fifth.
In fairness, that as still a very good run.
The Troytown is a top handicap - and Fitzhenry and Winter Escape, 2 of the horse who ran well in that race, franked the form by also running well in yesterdays Paddy Power chase.
The Paddy Power winner, Roaring Bull, was well behind that day - but I suspect he showed much improved form yesterday !
I don’t think Redhotfillypeppers will have to improve very much at all, to take this.
Her form from last season, suggests that she is competitively handicapped on a mark of 130 - though she is still young enough to be open to improvement.
I also like the fact that she is Willie Mullins sole runner in the race.
I’m sure his focus is currently on Leopardstown - but he is still the man to beat in races like this.
Of the others, the Shady Operator is definitely worth a mention.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate run, before disappointing last time, in the Troytown.
He sports first time blinkers today - and if they liven him up, he could be capable of outrunning his odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 1:15 Chozen 0.5pt win 16/1
Newb 2:25 Indy Five 0.5pt win 20/1
Newb 3:35 Kateson 1pt win 11/2
Leop 3:10 Anibale Fly 0.5pt win 25/1
Lim 2:50 Redhotfillypeppers 0.5pt win 7/1
Mentions
Newb 1:50 Servano (O )
Newb 3:00 Thyme Hill (P )
Leop 2:00 Penhill (P )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
It was nice to tip a winner this afternoon - and end a mini
draught - but I couldn’t help thinking, that I should have done a whole lot
better…
I had 6 horses on my list of possible tips this morning - Fingerontheswitch was a NR - but 3 of the other 5 won !
When you consider that I only managed 1 winner from 4 tips, that’s some going !I
The 2 that ‘got away’ were A Plus Tard - who I rejected because his price was in free-fall and I thought there may be a late NR (I wanted to tip him EW) - and Global Citizen.
I eventually decided against the latter on account of the ground - and instead tipped Grand Sancy.
Those are the kind of decisions that can haunt you !
Fortunately, I stuck with the biggest priced runner from my original list - and under a great ride from ‘Go to Paddy’ he got the job done.
As I said this morning, Tiquer is a horse who has been on my radar literally for years (I’m in this game for the long haul !).
I knew he had his conditions today - and suspected that he would be primed for the job.
It also looked an eminently winnable race - and that's how it turned out.
In the race itself, he was always close up - and when Paddy pressed the button after jumping the second last, he bounded clear.
It was a joy to watch !
He was returned at 16/1 - so a little shorter than the advised price.
That said, 25/1 was freely available when I issued the tip, so I would hope that those of you with bookmaker accounts managed to achieve that.
Ofcourse, those of you who target beating BSP, should have done even better, as his BSP was just under 40 !
I know it won’t stop people from jumping on as soon as I issue the tips - but those following at BSP are now 15pts ahead of those following at advised price - and they don’t have hassle either !
That really is food for thought…
Anyway, after that it was downhill - from a tipping perspective, at least !
Grand Sancy was the next tip to run - and whilst he ran really well, he was no match for Global Citizen (see above !).
The ground clearly wasn’t too soft for him (as I feared) - or quite soft enough for Gand Sancy - and the class of Global Citizen got him home.
A mighty frustrating one !
Next it was Elysian Flame.
He was a risky one - based on his run at Cheltenham.
In fairness, he jumped much better today - but was no match for all the way winner, Allmankind.
He was given a beautifully judged ride by Harry Skelton - and was much too good for his rivals.
Vieux Morvan was the final tip to run.
I rarely tip EW - and today showed why !
He was still front rank - and probably going well enough - when he clouted a fence and unshipped Oakley Brown.
2 bets lost in one movement :(
As for the Mentions:
Then A Plus Tard got the better of a battle with Chacun pour Soi.
I knew it was a possibility - but simply there was no point at which I could tip him at an acceptable price.
These things happen…
All of the days other Mentions justified my decision not to tip them.
Both Ask Dillon and Yala Enki ran well to finish third in their respective races at Chepstow.
Sceau Royal filled the same position at Kempton - though I was left feeling he could have won, if he had been given a more committed ride (I suspect the jockey was mindful of the ground).
Culture de Sivola went off too hard - and had nothing left in the straight: whilst Belami des Pictons was just disappointing (I guess he may have bled again).
On balance, it wasn’t a bad day - it just could have been a fair bit better.
Still, I guess that leaves me with something to aim for tomorrow :)
TVB.
I had 6 horses on my list of possible tips this morning - Fingerontheswitch was a NR - but 3 of the other 5 won !
When you consider that I only managed 1 winner from 4 tips, that’s some going !I
The 2 that ‘got away’ were A Plus Tard - who I rejected because his price was in free-fall and I thought there may be a late NR (I wanted to tip him EW) - and Global Citizen.
I eventually decided against the latter on account of the ground - and instead tipped Grand Sancy.
Those are the kind of decisions that can haunt you !
Fortunately, I stuck with the biggest priced runner from my original list - and under a great ride from ‘Go to Paddy’ he got the job done.
As I said this morning, Tiquer is a horse who has been on my radar literally for years (I’m in this game for the long haul !).
I knew he had his conditions today - and suspected that he would be primed for the job.
It also looked an eminently winnable race - and that's how it turned out.
In the race itself, he was always close up - and when Paddy pressed the button after jumping the second last, he bounded clear.
It was a joy to watch !
He was returned at 16/1 - so a little shorter than the advised price.
That said, 25/1 was freely available when I issued the tip, so I would hope that those of you with bookmaker accounts managed to achieve that.
Ofcourse, those of you who target beating BSP, should have done even better, as his BSP was just under 40 !
I know it won’t stop people from jumping on as soon as I issue the tips - but those following at BSP are now 15pts ahead of those following at advised price - and they don’t have hassle either !
That really is food for thought…
Anyway, after that it was downhill - from a tipping perspective, at least !
Grand Sancy was the next tip to run - and whilst he ran really well, he was no match for Global Citizen (see above !).
The ground clearly wasn’t too soft for him (as I feared) - or quite soft enough for Gand Sancy - and the class of Global Citizen got him home.
A mighty frustrating one !
Next it was Elysian Flame.
He was a risky one - based on his run at Cheltenham.
In fairness, he jumped much better today - but was no match for all the way winner, Allmankind.
He was given a beautifully judged ride by Harry Skelton - and was much too good for his rivals.
Vieux Morvan was the final tip to run.
I rarely tip EW - and today showed why !
He was still front rank - and probably going well enough - when he clouted a fence and unshipped Oakley Brown.
2 bets lost in one movement :(
As for the Mentions:
Then A Plus Tard got the better of a battle with Chacun pour Soi.
I knew it was a possibility - but simply there was no point at which I could tip him at an acceptable price.
These things happen…
All of the days other Mentions justified my decision not to tip them.
Both Ask Dillon and Yala Enki ran well to finish third in their respective races at Chepstow.
Sceau Royal filled the same position at Kempton - though I was left feeling he could have won, if he had been given a more committed ride (I suspect the jockey was mindful of the ground).
Culture de Sivola went off too hard - and had nothing left in the straight: whilst Belami des Pictons was just disappointing (I guess he may have bled again).
On balance, it wasn’t a bad day - it just could have been a fair bit better.
Still, I guess that leaves me with something to aim for tomorrow :)
TVB.
Daily write-up - Dec 27th
There are 5 NH meetings this afternoon: at Kempton, Chepstow and Wetherby in the
UK - plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.
There may not be quite as many meetings as yesterday - but the dip in quality is only marginal !
Chepstow host the main race of the day: the Welsh Grand National - supported by the Grade 1 Finale juvenile hurdle.
It’s a similar situation at Leopardstown, where the Paddy Power chase is the feature event on the card - supported by 2 Grade 1 contests !
Kempton has to play third fiddle - as it can only offer a couple of Grade 2 events !
There are some fair races taking place at both Wetherby and Limerick - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and 3 meetings is more than enough for me to try and get my head round !
In terms of bets/tips, then there are probably more opportunities today than there were yesterday.
That said, with such competitive racing, finding winners is never going to be easy.
I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day (the fifth was a NR).
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on most of the days other big races…
Kempton
1:20
I instinctively feel that Fanion Destruval should be taken on in this.
He was a massively impressive winner on his UK debut for Venetia, at Newbury last month - but that was in a modest 0-140 handicap.
He shoots up to Grade 2 company this afternoon - and whilst he may be up to the task, I wouldn’t be remotely interested in him at odds of 11/8.
The problem, is figuring out what to take him on with.
On better ground, I would be very keen on Global Citizen - but I’m far from convinced that he will enjoy the borderline heavy conditions.
Conditions will be no issue for Grand Sancy - and he performed quite well on his fencing debut in the grade 1 event at Sandown.
Assuming he builds on that, he will take a bit of beating.
Al Dancer is the other one worthy of consideration.
He’s probably the most solid option - but he has to carry a 3lb penalty and that makes him vulnerable.
On balance, I feel that Grand Sancy is probably the best bet.
I felt that a 5/1 early this morning, there was only a bit of value in his price - but a late drift to 6/1, has enticed me in !
Let’s hope that proves to be a good decision !
1:55
I’m struggling to see much of an angle into this race.
Culture de Sivola won the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and looks the one to beat, off a mark just 5lb higher this afternoon.
Unlike many of her rivals, she will have no issue with either the ground or the trip - and she looks the one to beat.
However, she’s not an overly big mare, so carrying top weight is not ideal: whilst she has been well found in the market.
She tends to hit a flat spot in her races, so my inclination would be to wait for that to happen (about half a mile from home !) - and then look to back her in-running…
Half cases can be made for most of her rivals - but non of them are rock solid.
More than that, the market appears to have them all in roughly the right place.
Time to move on…
2:30
On decent ground, Sceau Royal would very much be the one to beat in this.
He’s a borderline grade 1 performer, who briefly looked like winning the Champion chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
He ended up third in that race - but it still represents a level of form way beyond the capabilities of most of the rivals he faces today.
It also showed that he can handle soft ground - even if it’s not his preferred surface.
A lot will depend this afternoon, on exactly how soft the ground is.
The going description was changed to ‘soft with heavy patches’ yesterday afternoon - and if that’s the case, I think Sceua Royal may struggle.
In that case, Duc des Genievres should be the one to beat - based on official ratings.
He hacked up in last seasons Arkle - however that race did fall apart and he’s been well beaten in 3 subsequent runs.
He gets first time blinkers today, in an attempt to perk him up - and the fact that Willie Mullins sends him over to contest the race, is an interesting move.
All this said, he would be a hard one to support…
With Bun Doran unlikely to appreciate the ground - and Caid du Lin seemingly outclassed, Capeland becomes the most likely race winner.
That seems a little bizarre, as he’s really only a decent handicapper - even if he does seem to have improved recently.
Everything considered, I find this an impossible race to draw a conclusion on.
Sceau Royal should really be different class - but the ground is a great leveller - and if he doesn't handle it, he won’t be winning !
3:05
Looking through this race, I was quite shocked by the number of runners who I felt couldn’t win !
Most are either badly handicapped - or are likely to have an issue with either the ground or the distance (or both !)
The obvious exception is Belami des Pictons - but he’s been installed 9/4 fav and bled on his penultimate outing !
In the circumstances, I felt it was worth taking a risk on Fingerontheswitch - however, his connections have withdrawn him this morning on account of the ground (which I understand - even if I don’t completely agree with !).
In his absence, then Quarenta is probably the most solid option - though he looks quite beatable.
In all probability the race will be won by one of the market principals - with Belami des Pictons the most likely winner, assuming he doesn’t bleed again.
However, I really can’t get involved with him at the available odds.
Chepstow
1:05
Tiquer is a horse that I’ve been monitoring for quite literally years !
The issue with him, is that he’s very fragile - and tends to only make the racecourse, once or twice a season.
The thing about horses like him, is that when they do get to run, connections usually have them spot on.
Tiquer needs a very specific set of conditions: 2m4f and soft ground. Given such conditions, he’s capable of very useful form…
He got those conditions at Newbury in March 2018 - and beat Kayf Adventure by 8 lengths.
That one re-opposes on 3lb better terms today - but the outcome should be the same…
Whilst todays race is a class 2 event, it doesn’t look the strongest.
5 of the 7 runners were pulled up on their most recent outing - and one of the others, hasn’t run for over a year (and would prefer better ground).
As a consequence, Eceparti looks the one to beat.
He’s won his 2 most recent races very easily - though they were class 4 events, so he could find todays opposition a lot tougher (assuming any of them recapture their form !).
Of the others, the Whatwrongwithyou could find the trip too far (he’s a strong travelling 2 miler); whilst Springtown Lake could find it too short (he really wants 3 miles - though may get away with it if conditions are particularly demanding).
In short, there are chinks in the armour of all of the runners - which means that Tiquer is worth a small risk at a decent price.
1:35
Having watched Elysian Flame jump like a hairy goat on his debut at Cheltenham, I really didn’t think I would be tipping him at 13/2 in a grade 1 event next time !
And whilst this isn’t the strongest of races, I still didn’t think that I would be tipping him at 13/2, when he opened up at 14/1 last night !
That seemed a perfectly reasonable price, up against one of the favs for the Triumph hurdle - along with a horse with decent form, sent over from Ireland - but no !
And reality, all the early support has done, is convince me that he has to be tipped !
The horse is trained by Mick Easterby - and there are few shrewder judges in the game.
In truth, it’s little odd that he is pitching the horse into grade 1 company on only it’s second run over hurdles (particularly as it jumped so poorly first time)
The trouble is, I can see the argument…
The horse is very decent on the flat (rated 91) - and he absolutely loves heavy ground.
He may have jumped like a goat at Cheltenham - but he was still only beaten 9 lengths.
If the jumping issues have been resolved - then in ideal conditions, he’s going to run a big race.
More than that, the fav - and second fav - both look vulnerable.
Allmankind is seriously headstrong - and Harry Skelton is going to have to produce some ride, to get him home in what is likely to be energy sapping conditions.
And whilst Cerberus should cope with conditions, A Wave of the Sea hardly advertised his form, with a muted show at Leopardstown yesterday…
Tavis and Maskad can both be given a chance - with the latter quite attractive at a big price.
For the winner though, I’m happy to trust in Mick and Elysian Flame - hopefully they won’t let me down !
2:10
If Acey Milan can repeat the form of his last time out second at Haydock, then he should win this.
That was a huge run - and he was arguably unlucky not to win - mugged late by a fast finisher.
He’s up 4lb for that effort - but this doesn’t look to be as strong a race, and he is very much the one to beat.
That said, the market is fully aware of the situation - and he represents no value at a current price of 15/8.
In fact, he is so short, it is quite tempting to find something to take him on with !
Ask Dillon could be the one on his handicap debut - though stepping up to 3 miles, first time out on heavy Chepstow ground, is quite an ask.
If anyone can ready him though - Fergal can.
Half chances can be given to Clyne, Perfect Man, Evas Oscar and Sykes - but again, the market seems to have them positioned about right.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race.
2:50
Elegant Escape is bidding to win the Welsh National for the second successive year - and despite running from a mark 9lb higher, the market expects him to be successful.
That’s mainly because he ran an eye catching ‘trial’ in the Ladbrokes trophy - and as he’s still only 7, there’s a real possibility that he’s improved since last year.
He definitely has a good chance - but there are a number of quite strong contenders and I wouldn’t want to take 7/2 about anything in the race.
Now McGinty has been my long term fancy for the race - and he’s another with a big chance.
He pushed Santini close at Sandown in November - and on that form, will take all the beating.
He also beat De Rasher Counter at Chepstow last season, form which looks particularly strong now.
Again, the issue with him is the price - 11/2 leaves no room for error.
Yala Enki is the third one of major interest - on his second run for Paul Nichols.
He was trained by Venetia when finishing third in last years renewal - and must have a fair chance of reversing the form with Elegant Escape, on 8lb better terms.
Prime Venture, Potters Corner and Truckers Lodge, are 3 more of potential interest - though all looked priced about right.
Whilst of those at bigger prices, Pop Rockstar is the one that interests me most.
At around 8/1, Yala Enki is just about the best bet in the race - but there is minimal margin in that price.
Leopardstown
1:10
I saw sorely tempted to take a chance on A Plus Tard in this.
I think he’s probably the second best horse in the race: and the one that is probably the best - Chacun pour Soi - is not the most robust of animals.
The issue with A Plus Tard, is that he’s not really a 2 miler - and this race is over 2 miles !
I’ll be a little surprised if he finishes out of the first 3 - but far less surprised if he is beaten.
At an early price of 10/1, with 8 runners in the race (and therefore 3 places), he would have been an EW tip.
However, the price has already been cut to 7/1 - and with the possibility of a NR messing up the place terms, I don’t want to get involved.
Suffice to say, Chacun pour Soi should win - but he does come with risks.
A Plus Tard is a class animal - but he really wants a trip of 2m4f (or further !) and therefore could easily find himself short of pace at a crucial time.
2:55
I want to side with Vieux Morvan in this.
He’s a horse who first came to my attention, when he ran fifth in the corresponding race, 2 years ago.
That was his first run for Joseph O’Brien, having been trained previously in France.
He ran a massive race that day, leading and jumping for fun - until he hit the second last fence.
Ultimately he weakened into fifth place - but I was still keen to be with him next time.
That turned out to be at the Dublin racing festival - and he again ran a massive race to finish second to Last Goodbye.
His next few runs were disappointing, but he then bounced back to form in this race last year, when finishing second to surprise winner Auvergnat.
He was well beaten by the winner - but still finished ahead of Fitzhenry and Any Second Now.
Those 2 re-oppose this afternoon - but on worse terms, they shouldn’t really reverse the form.
Certainly back down to a mark just 1lb higher than a year ago - Vieux Morvan is handicapped to run very well.
Furthermore that doesn’t include the 7lb claim of his jockey, Oakley Brown.
This lad is new onto the scene - but from what I’ve seen so far he looks a real talent - and his 7lb claim is something of a gift.
Ofcouse in a race of this nature, nothing I guaranteed.
Furthermore with Vieux Morvan about to reach 11, he’s unlikely to be improving and therefore vulnerable to one that is.
That said, I expect Joseph O’Brien will have him spot of for this - and I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t run a huge race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chep 1:05 Tiquer 0.5pt win 20/1
Chep 1:35 Elysian Flame 0.75pt win 13/2
Leop 2:55 Vieux Morvan 0.5pt EW 16/1
Kemp 1:20 Grand Sancy 1pt win 6/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Culture de Sivola (P )
Kemp 2:30 Sceau Royal (C )
Kemp 3:05 Belami des Pictons (P )
Chep 2:10 Ask Dillon (C )
Chep 2:50 Yala Enki (O )
Leop 1:10 A Plus Tard (C )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
There may not be quite as many meetings as yesterday - but the dip in quality is only marginal !
Chepstow host the main race of the day: the Welsh Grand National - supported by the Grade 1 Finale juvenile hurdle.
It’s a similar situation at Leopardstown, where the Paddy Power chase is the feature event on the card - supported by 2 Grade 1 contests !
Kempton has to play third fiddle - as it can only offer a couple of Grade 2 events !
There are some fair races taking place at both Wetherby and Limerick - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and 3 meetings is more than enough for me to try and get my head round !
In terms of bets/tips, then there are probably more opportunities today than there were yesterday.
That said, with such competitive racing, finding winners is never going to be easy.
I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day (the fifth was a NR).
Here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on most of the days other big races…
Kempton
1:20
I instinctively feel that Fanion Destruval should be taken on in this.
He was a massively impressive winner on his UK debut for Venetia, at Newbury last month - but that was in a modest 0-140 handicap.
He shoots up to Grade 2 company this afternoon - and whilst he may be up to the task, I wouldn’t be remotely interested in him at odds of 11/8.
The problem, is figuring out what to take him on with.
On better ground, I would be very keen on Global Citizen - but I’m far from convinced that he will enjoy the borderline heavy conditions.
Conditions will be no issue for Grand Sancy - and he performed quite well on his fencing debut in the grade 1 event at Sandown.
Assuming he builds on that, he will take a bit of beating.
Al Dancer is the other one worthy of consideration.
He’s probably the most solid option - but he has to carry a 3lb penalty and that makes him vulnerable.
On balance, I feel that Grand Sancy is probably the best bet.
I felt that a 5/1 early this morning, there was only a bit of value in his price - but a late drift to 6/1, has enticed me in !
Let’s hope that proves to be a good decision !
1:55
I’m struggling to see much of an angle into this race.
Culture de Sivola won the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and looks the one to beat, off a mark just 5lb higher this afternoon.
Unlike many of her rivals, she will have no issue with either the ground or the trip - and she looks the one to beat.
However, she’s not an overly big mare, so carrying top weight is not ideal: whilst she has been well found in the market.
She tends to hit a flat spot in her races, so my inclination would be to wait for that to happen (about half a mile from home !) - and then look to back her in-running…
Half cases can be made for most of her rivals - but non of them are rock solid.
More than that, the market appears to have them all in roughly the right place.
Time to move on…
2:30
On decent ground, Sceau Royal would very much be the one to beat in this.
He’s a borderline grade 1 performer, who briefly looked like winning the Champion chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival.
He ended up third in that race - but it still represents a level of form way beyond the capabilities of most of the rivals he faces today.
It also showed that he can handle soft ground - even if it’s not his preferred surface.
A lot will depend this afternoon, on exactly how soft the ground is.
The going description was changed to ‘soft with heavy patches’ yesterday afternoon - and if that’s the case, I think Sceua Royal may struggle.
In that case, Duc des Genievres should be the one to beat - based on official ratings.
He hacked up in last seasons Arkle - however that race did fall apart and he’s been well beaten in 3 subsequent runs.
He gets first time blinkers today, in an attempt to perk him up - and the fact that Willie Mullins sends him over to contest the race, is an interesting move.
All this said, he would be a hard one to support…
With Bun Doran unlikely to appreciate the ground - and Caid du Lin seemingly outclassed, Capeland becomes the most likely race winner.
That seems a little bizarre, as he’s really only a decent handicapper - even if he does seem to have improved recently.
Everything considered, I find this an impossible race to draw a conclusion on.
Sceau Royal should really be different class - but the ground is a great leveller - and if he doesn't handle it, he won’t be winning !
3:05
Looking through this race, I was quite shocked by the number of runners who I felt couldn’t win !
Most are either badly handicapped - or are likely to have an issue with either the ground or the distance (or both !)
The obvious exception is Belami des Pictons - but he’s been installed 9/4 fav and bled on his penultimate outing !
In the circumstances, I felt it was worth taking a risk on Fingerontheswitch - however, his connections have withdrawn him this morning on account of the ground (which I understand - even if I don’t completely agree with !).
In his absence, then Quarenta is probably the most solid option - though he looks quite beatable.
In all probability the race will be won by one of the market principals - with Belami des Pictons the most likely winner, assuming he doesn’t bleed again.
However, I really can’t get involved with him at the available odds.
Chepstow
1:05
Tiquer is a horse that I’ve been monitoring for quite literally years !
The issue with him, is that he’s very fragile - and tends to only make the racecourse, once or twice a season.
The thing about horses like him, is that when they do get to run, connections usually have them spot on.
Tiquer needs a very specific set of conditions: 2m4f and soft ground. Given such conditions, he’s capable of very useful form…
He got those conditions at Newbury in March 2018 - and beat Kayf Adventure by 8 lengths.
That one re-opposes on 3lb better terms today - but the outcome should be the same…
Whilst todays race is a class 2 event, it doesn’t look the strongest.
5 of the 7 runners were pulled up on their most recent outing - and one of the others, hasn’t run for over a year (and would prefer better ground).
As a consequence, Eceparti looks the one to beat.
He’s won his 2 most recent races very easily - though they were class 4 events, so he could find todays opposition a lot tougher (assuming any of them recapture their form !).
Of the others, the Whatwrongwithyou could find the trip too far (he’s a strong travelling 2 miler); whilst Springtown Lake could find it too short (he really wants 3 miles - though may get away with it if conditions are particularly demanding).
In short, there are chinks in the armour of all of the runners - which means that Tiquer is worth a small risk at a decent price.
1:35
Having watched Elysian Flame jump like a hairy goat on his debut at Cheltenham, I really didn’t think I would be tipping him at 13/2 in a grade 1 event next time !
And whilst this isn’t the strongest of races, I still didn’t think that I would be tipping him at 13/2, when he opened up at 14/1 last night !
That seemed a perfectly reasonable price, up against one of the favs for the Triumph hurdle - along with a horse with decent form, sent over from Ireland - but no !
And reality, all the early support has done, is convince me that he has to be tipped !
The horse is trained by Mick Easterby - and there are few shrewder judges in the game.
In truth, it’s little odd that he is pitching the horse into grade 1 company on only it’s second run over hurdles (particularly as it jumped so poorly first time)
The trouble is, I can see the argument…
The horse is very decent on the flat (rated 91) - and he absolutely loves heavy ground.
He may have jumped like a goat at Cheltenham - but he was still only beaten 9 lengths.
If the jumping issues have been resolved - then in ideal conditions, he’s going to run a big race.
More than that, the fav - and second fav - both look vulnerable.
Allmankind is seriously headstrong - and Harry Skelton is going to have to produce some ride, to get him home in what is likely to be energy sapping conditions.
And whilst Cerberus should cope with conditions, A Wave of the Sea hardly advertised his form, with a muted show at Leopardstown yesterday…
Tavis and Maskad can both be given a chance - with the latter quite attractive at a big price.
For the winner though, I’m happy to trust in Mick and Elysian Flame - hopefully they won’t let me down !
2:10
If Acey Milan can repeat the form of his last time out second at Haydock, then he should win this.
That was a huge run - and he was arguably unlucky not to win - mugged late by a fast finisher.
He’s up 4lb for that effort - but this doesn’t look to be as strong a race, and he is very much the one to beat.
That said, the market is fully aware of the situation - and he represents no value at a current price of 15/8.
In fact, he is so short, it is quite tempting to find something to take him on with !
Ask Dillon could be the one on his handicap debut - though stepping up to 3 miles, first time out on heavy Chepstow ground, is quite an ask.
If anyone can ready him though - Fergal can.
Half chances can be given to Clyne, Perfect Man, Evas Oscar and Sykes - but again, the market seems to have them positioned about right.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race.
2:50
Elegant Escape is bidding to win the Welsh National for the second successive year - and despite running from a mark 9lb higher, the market expects him to be successful.
That’s mainly because he ran an eye catching ‘trial’ in the Ladbrokes trophy - and as he’s still only 7, there’s a real possibility that he’s improved since last year.
He definitely has a good chance - but there are a number of quite strong contenders and I wouldn’t want to take 7/2 about anything in the race.
Now McGinty has been my long term fancy for the race - and he’s another with a big chance.
He pushed Santini close at Sandown in November - and on that form, will take all the beating.
He also beat De Rasher Counter at Chepstow last season, form which looks particularly strong now.
Again, the issue with him is the price - 11/2 leaves no room for error.
Yala Enki is the third one of major interest - on his second run for Paul Nichols.
He was trained by Venetia when finishing third in last years renewal - and must have a fair chance of reversing the form with Elegant Escape, on 8lb better terms.
Prime Venture, Potters Corner and Truckers Lodge, are 3 more of potential interest - though all looked priced about right.
Whilst of those at bigger prices, Pop Rockstar is the one that interests me most.
At around 8/1, Yala Enki is just about the best bet in the race - but there is minimal margin in that price.
Leopardstown
1:10
I saw sorely tempted to take a chance on A Plus Tard in this.
I think he’s probably the second best horse in the race: and the one that is probably the best - Chacun pour Soi - is not the most robust of animals.
The issue with A Plus Tard, is that he’s not really a 2 miler - and this race is over 2 miles !
I’ll be a little surprised if he finishes out of the first 3 - but far less surprised if he is beaten.
At an early price of 10/1, with 8 runners in the race (and therefore 3 places), he would have been an EW tip.
However, the price has already been cut to 7/1 - and with the possibility of a NR messing up the place terms, I don’t want to get involved.
Suffice to say, Chacun pour Soi should win - but he does come with risks.
A Plus Tard is a class animal - but he really wants a trip of 2m4f (or further !) and therefore could easily find himself short of pace at a crucial time.
2:55
I want to side with Vieux Morvan in this.
He’s a horse who first came to my attention, when he ran fifth in the corresponding race, 2 years ago.
That was his first run for Joseph O’Brien, having been trained previously in France.
He ran a massive race that day, leading and jumping for fun - until he hit the second last fence.
Ultimately he weakened into fifth place - but I was still keen to be with him next time.
That turned out to be at the Dublin racing festival - and he again ran a massive race to finish second to Last Goodbye.
His next few runs were disappointing, but he then bounced back to form in this race last year, when finishing second to surprise winner Auvergnat.
He was well beaten by the winner - but still finished ahead of Fitzhenry and Any Second Now.
Those 2 re-oppose this afternoon - but on worse terms, they shouldn’t really reverse the form.
Certainly back down to a mark just 1lb higher than a year ago - Vieux Morvan is handicapped to run very well.
Furthermore that doesn’t include the 7lb claim of his jockey, Oakley Brown.
This lad is new onto the scene - but from what I’ve seen so far he looks a real talent - and his 7lb claim is something of a gift.
Ofcouse in a race of this nature, nothing I guaranteed.
Furthermore with Vieux Morvan about to reach 11, he’s unlikely to be improving and therefore vulnerable to one that is.
That said, I expect Joseph O’Brien will have him spot of for this - and I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t run a huge race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chep 1:05 Tiquer 0.5pt win 20/1
Chep 1:35 Elysian Flame 0.75pt win 13/2
Leop 2:55 Vieux Morvan 0.5pt EW 16/1
Kemp 1:20 Grand Sancy 1pt win 6/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:55 Culture de Sivola (P )
Kemp 2:30 Sceau Royal (C )
Kemp 3:05 Belami des Pictons (P )
Chep 2:10 Ask Dillon (C )
Chep 2:50 Yala Enki (O )
Leop 1:10 A Plus Tard (C )
The letter in brackets is the reason why the Mention wasn’t a tip:
P(rice); (O)pposition; (S)peculative; (C)onditions
Review of the day
Despite the volume of racing today (or maybe because of it
!), I kept things tight and only issued 3 tips.
And unfortunately, as has been the case recently, whilst all 3 ran well, non of them ran well enough to come home in front…
As I’ve said many times before, you need a bit of luck in this game and Hold the Note certainly didn’t get any…
He was the first tip to run - and was still going very nicely in behind the favourite Roll Again, when that one fell at the seventh last.
Hold the Note was left with nowhere to go - and whilst Tom Scudamore managed to stay in the saddle, the horse was brought to a halt.
Understandably, he was quickly pulled up…
It was too far out to say the Hold the Note would have won - but he still had every chance, and at the time, was trading at just 4 in-running on Betfair.
Not the best way to start the day !
Next it was Elixir de Nutz.
He ran an honest race: leading to the home turn, before backing out of things…
In truth, even if he’d been at his best, I doubt he would have contained Epatante.
As I said this morning, she still had plenty to prove - but she proved most of it today, and is now a worthy favourite for the Champion hurdle.
Colonel Custard was the final tip on the day - and like Elixir, he ran an honest race but wasn’t good enough.
I did briefly think that Our Power might make me regret not taking a risk on him - but after looking very threatening, he could only plug on for third place.
As for the Mentions:
Then Black Op was another who ran a solid race - but he wasn’t good enough to cope with Slate House.
By Contrast, his stablemate, Lostintranslation, ran no kind of race in the King George and was pulled up.
I couldn’t have foreseen that - but I could have foreseen Cyrname setting up the race perfectly for Clan des Obeaus to repeat last years win.
Over at Wetherby, Didero Vallis ran really well - but was no match for Top Ville Ben.
At his favourite venue - but ridden with more restraint than normal - the winner bolted clear, in the manner of a high class horse.
Finally at Leopardstown, Sacchoandvanzeti was very disappointing in the 3 year old hurdle, running no sort of a race, behind impressive winner, Aspire Tower.
Whilst the 2 mile novice chase panned out pretty much as I expected, with Fakir Doudaires lack of gears getting exposed.
However, it was Notebook who exposed him - rather than the favourite, Laurina…
TVB.
And unfortunately, as has been the case recently, whilst all 3 ran well, non of them ran well enough to come home in front…
As I’ve said many times before, you need a bit of luck in this game and Hold the Note certainly didn’t get any…
He was the first tip to run - and was still going very nicely in behind the favourite Roll Again, when that one fell at the seventh last.
Hold the Note was left with nowhere to go - and whilst Tom Scudamore managed to stay in the saddle, the horse was brought to a halt.
Understandably, he was quickly pulled up…
It was too far out to say the Hold the Note would have won - but he still had every chance, and at the time, was trading at just 4 in-running on Betfair.
Not the best way to start the day !
Next it was Elixir de Nutz.
He ran an honest race: leading to the home turn, before backing out of things…
In truth, even if he’d been at his best, I doubt he would have contained Epatante.
As I said this morning, she still had plenty to prove - but she proved most of it today, and is now a worthy favourite for the Champion hurdle.
Colonel Custard was the final tip on the day - and like Elixir, he ran an honest race but wasn’t good enough.
I did briefly think that Our Power might make me regret not taking a risk on him - but after looking very threatening, he could only plug on for third place.
As for the Mentions:
Then Black Op was another who ran a solid race - but he wasn’t good enough to cope with Slate House.
By Contrast, his stablemate, Lostintranslation, ran no kind of race in the King George and was pulled up.
I couldn’t have foreseen that - but I could have foreseen Cyrname setting up the race perfectly for Clan des Obeaus to repeat last years win.
Over at Wetherby, Didero Vallis ran really well - but was no match for Top Ville Ben.
At his favourite venue - but ridden with more restraint than normal - the winner bolted clear, in the manner of a high class horse.
Finally at Leopardstown, Sacchoandvanzeti was very disappointing in the 3 year old hurdle, running no sort of a race, behind impressive winner, Aspire Tower.
Whilst the 2 mile novice chase panned out pretty much as I expected, with Fakir Doudaires lack of gears getting exposed.
However, it was Notebook who exposed him - rather than the favourite, Laurina…
TVB.
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